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Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering Kanda, Takada & Furuta (eds)
2007 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-45211-3
J.D. Srensen
Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
J.W. Baker
Stanford University, Stanford, USA
ABSTRACT: The importance of robustness as a property of structural systems has been recognised following
several structural failures, such as that at Ronan Point in 1968, where the consequences were deemed unacceptable
relative to the initiating damage. A variety of research efforts in the past decades have attempted to quantify
aspects of robustness such as redundancy and identify design principles that can improve robustness. This
paper outlines the progress of recent work by the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) to develop
comprehensive guidance on assessing and providing robustness in structural systems. Guidance is provided
regarding the assessment of robustness in a framework that considers potential hazards to the system, vulnerability
of system components, and failure consequences. Several proposed methods for quantifying robustness are
reviewed, and guidelines for robust design will be proposed. The document adopts a probabilistic risk assessment
framework and includes guidance for decision-making related to robustness.
INTRODUCTION
DISPROPORTIONATE FAILURE
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In the third method above, the principle of prevention of disproportionate collapse is utilised. According
to this principle, a localised failure due to an (accidental) action may be acceptable, provided it will not
endanger the stability of the whole structure, and that
the overall load-bearing capacity of the structure is
maintained and allows necessary emergency measures
to be undertaken. The proportionality of failure can be
checked in practice by assessing the additional damage that can result when each load-bearing member is
notionally removed, one at a time, from the structure.
The damage is considered to be disproportional if it
exceeds that given in the code. If the damage is disproportional, then the particular load-bearing member
is either designed as a strong Key Element or protective measures are undertaken to reduce its probability
of failure to an acceptable lower level.
For unidentified actions, the Key Element design
is carried out against a pressure of 34 kN/m2 , which
is the UK Regulations requirement based on vented
internal gas explosion pressures (Canisius, 2006).
Note: Whether this over-pressure, which was originally intended for the design of walls of large panel
concrete buildings, should be used also as the general
minimum requirement for the design of Key Elements against any (unidentified) action is subject to
some debate at present: for example, in relation to
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Consideration of system effects is particularly important when modelling robustness. Building code criteria
primarily focus on designing individual elements or
subsystems of a larger engineered system. This design
philosophy has generally been successful, except in
those instances where systems have suffered cascading system failures due to a lack of robustness.
These potential failure mechanisms are the reason why
robustness criteria require system-level analysis.
A system-reliability approach to robustness assessment is being considered by the Joint Committee on
Structural Safety. This approach takes advantage of
the considerable developments in probabilistic system
reliability analysis achieved in the past few decades.
By working in a reliability format, the randomness and
uncertainties inherent in robustness assessment can
be explicitly included, and decision analysis tools can
be used to balance the costs of robustness provision
against the benefits of increased system reliability.
While system reliability methods are most often used
to model physical structures, here it may be useful
to broaden a system to include the structure as well
as its associated inspection, maintenance and repair
procedures. This allows one to capture, for example,
the effect of various maintenance strategies on the
robustness of deteriorating systems.
A variety of system-reliability-based robustness
quantification methods have been considered by
researchers, and they are briefly described in the
following section.
METHODS OF QUANTIFYING
ROBUSTNESS
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prospective loading on the system.P( ) is the probability of failure of the system, as a function of the
load and resistance of the system. This vulnerability
parameter indicates the loss of system reliability due
to damage.
(Baker and Faber 2006) proposed a metric for
robustness of an engineered system. The approach
divides consequences into direct consequences associated with local component damage (that might be
considered proportional to the initiating damage) and
indirect consequences associated with subsequent system failure (that might be considered disproportional
to the initiating damage). An index is formulated by
comparing the risk associated with direct and indirect consequences. The index of robustness (IRob ) is
defined as
benchmarking the performance of simplified robustness requirements found in building codes. Several
proposed methods are briefly described here.
Recognizing that present code-based analysis procedures can not give a complete picture of a structures
robustness, a variety of probability-based quantification procedures has been proposed. Common aspects
of these approaches include attempts to quantify the
complete range of potential loading on structures, as
well as associated probabilities of occurrence for those
load scenarios, and quantification of uncertainty in
structural properties or structural response.
Note that redundancy in systems is closely related
to the concept of robustness. While redundant systems
are generally believed to be more robust, there are
additional methods of providing robustness that are
not related to redundancy. The approaches described
briefly below relate to both redundancy and robustness, with individual approaches placing more emphasis on one aspect or another.
(Frangopol and Curley 1987) and (Fu and
Frangopol 1990) considered probabilistic indices to
measure structural redundancy, based on the relation
between damage probability and system failure probability. Fu and Frangopol proposed a redundancy index
(RI ) defined as
where Pf (dmg) is the probability of damage occurrence to the system and Pf (sys) is the system failure
probability. This index indicates the reserve strength
of a system (i.e., the residual strength of a system
that has sustained damage). Frangopol and Curley
considered deterministic safety factors to measure
redundancy, but their alternative systems-reliability
approach is most relevant here. They studied the
following redundancy factor
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method of design. For this semi-probabilistic limitstate design method, the limits on indirectly damaged
floor area are usually specified in both real and relative terms. The real value limit for damage to one
floor, that results from the removal of a single loadbearing member, is not unique in different building
codes/regulations: for example, 100 m2 in Eurocode
1991-1-7, 75 m2 in the UK Building Regulations and
240 m2 in the Danish code (DS 409, 2006). However, this difference is acceptable because the value
is nationally determined to suit an individual country. However, the current limits (both real and relative)
used within a country may become unacceptable, or
too stringent, if semi-probabilistic design is to be used
for assessing robustness against terrorist attacks by
considering the simultaneous loss of several members, for example as proposed by (Alexander 2004).
Their direct use to assess buildings against a multiple
member loss situation can easily lead to uneconomical
structures. Therefore, (Canisius 2006) has proposed a
probabilistic method of evaluating acceptable levels of
damage to be used in multiple-member loss situations.
This method allows the use of protective measures
as a means of improving robustness of the structural
system. To check the methods usefulness (or not), it
is being currently applied to a practical example in
relation to the UKs Building Regulations.
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CONCLUSIONS
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