Probability Theorems

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Page 1

Probability

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Probability Theorems
Rule 1:
The
Theprobability
probabilityof
ofan
anevent
event isis between
between 00 and
and 11
Probability
Probabilityof
ofan
anevent
eventthat
thatCAN
CANNOT
NOToccur
occurisis0.0
0.0
Probability
Probabilityof
ofan
anevent
eventthat
thatIS
ISCERTAIN
CERTAINto
tooccur
occurisis1.0
1.0
The
Theformula
formulais:
is:
P(A)
P(A)==0.00
0.00to
to1.00
1.00

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Page 2

Probability

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Probability Theorems
Rule 2:
The
Thesum
sumof
ofall
allpossible
possibleprobabilities
probabilities of
of defined
defined events
events isis
equal
equal to
to 1.00
1.00
PP11 ++PP22 ++PP33 ++. .. .. . PPnn ==1.00
1.00
Example:
Example: In
In roll
roll of
of aa single
single die,
die,P(1)
P(1)==1/6,
1/6,P(2)
P(2)==1/6,
1/6,
P(3)
P(3)==1/6,
1/6,P(4)
P(4) ==1/6,
1/6,P(5)
P(5)==1/6,
1/6,P(6)
P(6)==1/6;
1/6;
P(1,
P(1, or
or 2,
2, or
or 3,
3, or
or4,
4,or
or5,
5,or
or6)
6)
== 1/6
1/6+1/6
+1/6+1/6
+1/6 +1/6
+1/6 +1/6
+1/6 +1/6
+1/6+1/6
+1/6
== 1.0
1.0
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Page 3

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

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Probability Theorems
Rule 3:
The
Thecomplementary
complementarylaw:
law:
Since
Sincethe
thesum
sumof
ofall
allpossible
possible probabilities
probabilities of
of defined
defined
events
eventsisisequal
equalto
to1.00,
1.00,the
theprobability
probability of
of an
anevent
eventNOT
NOT
occurring
occurring isis equal
equal probability
probabilityof
ofthe
theevent
eventoccurring
occurring
subtracted
subtracted from
from 1.0
1.0
If,
If, P(A)
P(A) == probability
probability an
an event
event will
will occur
occur
Then,
Then,11--P(A)
P(A)==probability
probabilityan
anevent
eventwill
willNOT
NOToccur
occur
Example:
Example:
P(draw
==13/52
P(drawaaheart
heartfrom
fromaadeck
deckof
ofcards)
cards)
13/52
P(draw
P(drawaanon-heart
non-heartfrom
fromaadeck
deckof
ofcards)
cards)==11- (13/52)
(13/52)
== 39/52
39/52
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Page 4

Probability

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Probability Theorems
Rule 4:
The
Theadditive
additivelaw:
law:
IfIf events
events are
are mutually
mutually exclusive
exclusive (events
(events cannot
cannot occur
occur at
at
the
thesame
sametime),
time),the
thesum
sumof
of the
theprobability
probabilityof
ofoccurrence
occurrence
of
ofthese
theseevents
eventsisisequal
equalto
to1.00
1.00
IfIfAAand
andBBare
arethe
theonly
onlypossible
possibleoutcomes
outcomesand
andare
aremutually
mutuallyexclusive
exclusive
events,
events,then:
then:P(A)
P(A)++P(B)
P(B)==1.0
1.0
Example:
Example:
In
Inaasingle
singleflip
flipof
ofaacoin
cointhe
theonly
onlytwo
tworeasonable
reasonableoutcomes
outcomesare
areaa
head
heador
oraatail
tail(neglecting
(neglectingthe
thepossibility
possibilityof
oflanding
landingon
onedge);
edge);these
these
are
aremutually
mutuallyexclusive
exclusiveevents
eventssince
sinceobserving
observingaahead
headmeans
meansaa
tail
tailcannot
cannotbe
beobserved,
observed,and
andvice
viceversa.
versa.
Therefore:
Therefore:P(head
P(heador
ortail)
tail)==P(head)
P(head)++P(tail)
P(tail)==1.0
1.0
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Page 5

Probability

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Probability Theorems
Rule 5:
The
Themultiplicative
multiplicativelaw:
law:
The
Theprobability
probabilityof
ofthe
thejoint
joint occurrence
occurrence of
of independent
independent
events
eventsisisthe
theproduct
productof
ofthe
theprobability
probabilityof
ofeach
eachevent
event
(independentevents
(independentevents do
do not
not influence
influencelikelihood
likelihoodof
of the
the
occurrence
occurrenceof
ofany
anyof
ofthe
theother
otherevents)
events)
If,
If,AA,,B,
B,and
andCCare
areindependent
independentevents
events(not
(notinfluenced
influencedby
byeach
eachother),
other),
then:
then:
P(A
P(Aand
andBBand
andC)
C)==P(A)
P(A)xxP(B)
P(B)xxP(C)
P(C)
Example:
Example:
The
Theprobability
probabilityof
ofrolling
rollingaa6
6ininconsecutive
consecutivethree
threerolls
rollsof
ofaasingle
single
die
die(note:
(note:outcome
outcomeof
ofone
oneroll
rolldoes
doesnot
notinfluence
influencethe
theother).
other).
P(roll
P(roll6
6three
threetimes
timesininaarow)
row)==1/6
1/6xx1/6
1/6xx1/6=
1/6=1/216
1/216
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Page 6

Probability

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Probability Theorems
Rule 6:
The
Thecombination
combinationlaw:
law:
The
The probability
probability of
of occurrence
occurrenceof
ofeither
eitheror
orboth
bothnonnonindependent
independent events
events isisthe
thesum
sumof
ofthe
theprobability
probability of
of each
each
independent
independentevents
eventsminus
minus the
the probability
probability of
of joint
joint events.
events.
P(A
P(Aor
orBBor
orboth
bothAAand
andB)
B)==P(A)
P(A)++P(B)
P(B)--{P(A)
{P(A)xxP(B)}
P(B)}
Example:
Example:The
Theprobability
probabilityof
ofdrawing
drawingan
anace
aceor
orclub
clubfrom
fromaadeck
deckof
of
cards:
cards:
P(ace
P(aceor
orclub)
club)==P(ace)
P(ace)++P(club)
P(club)--P(ace
P(aceof
ofclubs)
clubs)
==4/52
4/52++13/52
13/52--{4/52
{4/52xx13/52}
13/52}
==17/52
17/52--{1/52}
{1/52}
==16/52
16/52==0.31
0.31
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Page 7

Probability

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Probability Theorems
Rule 7:
The
Theconditional
conditionallaw:
law:
The
The probability
probability of
of observing
observingtwo
two dependent
dependent events
eventsisisthe
the
product
productof
ofthe
theprobability
probability of
ofthe
thefirst
firstevent
eventand
andthe
the
conditional
conditional probability
probability of
ofthe
the second
secondevent,
event,given
giventhe
thefirst
first
has
has occurred.
occurred.
Given
Giventhat
thatAAand
andBBare
aredependent:
dependent:
P(A
P(Aand
andB)
B)==P(A)
P(A)xxP(B|A)
P(B|A)
Example:
Example:
The
Theprobability
probabilityof
ofdrawing
drawingaasecond
secondace
acefrom
fromaadeck
deckof
ofcards,
cards,given
given
that
thatthe
thefirst
firstdraw
drawwas
wasan
anace
ace(assume
(assumetwo
twocards
cardsare
aredrawn,
drawn,without
without
replacement).
replacement).
P(two
P(twoaces)
aces)==P(1st
P(1stace)
ace)xxP(2nd
P(2ndace|1st
ace|1stace)
ace)==4/52
4/52xx3/51=
3/51=0.0769
0.0769xx
0.0589
0.0589==0.00452
0.00452
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Page 8

Probability

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Probability Theorems
Applying Probability Rules: Questions 1 - 3

1.
1.What
Whatisisthe
theprobability
probabilityof
offlipping
flipping three
three heads
heads in
in aa row?
row?
2.
2.What
Whatisisthe
theprobability
probability of
of drawing
drawing three
three aces
aces in
in aa row
row
from
from aa deck
deck of
of cards
cards ifif the
thecards
cardsare
arereplaced
replacedand
and
reshuffled
reshuffled after
after each
each draw?
draw?
3.
3.What
Whatisisthe
theprobability
probability of
of drawing
drawing three
three aces
aces in
in aa row
row
from
fromaadeck
deckof
ofcards
cardsififthe
thecards
cardsare
areNOT
NOTreplaced
replacedafter
after
each
eachdraw?
draw?

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Page 9

Probability

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Probability Theorems
Applying Probability Rules: Question 4
What is the probability of getting X heads in a row using a
fair coin?
Number of
consecutive
heads
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Recognize

Measure

Excel formula .5^X

Probability
0.5
0.25
0.125
0.0625
0.03125
0.015625
0.0078125
0.00390625
0.00195313
0.00097656

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How would this change if

the coin were biased to
give heads 65% of the
time?

Page 10

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

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Probability Theorems
Applying Probability Rules: Discrete PDF = 0.5 N
PDF - Probability Density Function
CDF - Cumulative Distribution Function

10 Trials

PDF

Exactly
N Heads

N or Less
Heads

0.000977
0.009766
0.043945
0.117188
0.205078
0.246094
0.205078
0.117188
0.043945
0.009766
0.000977

0.000977
0.010742
0.054688
0.171875
0.376953
0.623047
0.828125
0.945313
0.989258
0.999023
1.000000

N
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

CDF Probability

N or More
Heads
1.000000
0.999023
0.989258
0.945313
0.828125
0.623047
0.376953
0.171875
0.054687
0.010742
0.000977

More Than Less Than

N Heads
N Heads
0.999023
0.989258
0.945313
0.828125
0.623047
0.376953
0.171875
0.054687
0.010742
0.000977
0.000000

0.000000
0.000977
0.010742
0.054688
0.171875
0.376953
0.623047
0.828125
0.945313
0.989258
0.999023

P (N7) = P(N=7) + P(N=8) + P(N=9) + P(N=10) = .171875

P(N 4) = P(N=0) + P(N=1) + P(N=2) + P(N=3) + P(N=4) = .376953
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Page 11

Probability

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Probability Theorems
Applying Probability Rules: Series Probability Example
Series
SeriesProbability
Probabilityisisaacommon
commonapplication
applicationof
ofthe
themultiplicative
multiplicativelaw
lawto
to
reliability.
reliability.AAsimplified
simplifiedexample:
example:for
forthe
thePatriot
Patriotmissile
missileto
tokill
killaaScud
Scud
missile,
missile,radar
radarmust
mustdetect
detectthe
theScud,
Scud,Patriot
Patriotmust
mustlaunch,
launch,then
thenlock
lockon
on
to
tothe
theScud,
Scud,track
trackit,it,and
andhit
hitititand
andthe
thehit
hitmust
mustbe
beeffective
effectiveto
todisable
disable
(kill)
(kill)the
theScud.
Scud.All
Allfunctions
functionsare
arerequired
requiredfor
forsuccess.
success.
P(success)
P(success)==P(detect)
P(detect)xxP(launch)
P(launch)xxP(lock)
P(lock)xxP(track)
P(track)xxP(hit)
P(hit)xxP(kill)
P(kill)
IfIfeach
eachof
ofthese
theseprobabilities
probabilitiesisis0.99:
0.99:
P(success)
P(success)==0.99
0.99xx0.99
0.99xx0.99
0.99xx0.99
0.99xx0.99
0.99xx0.99
0.99==(0.99)^6
(0.99)^6==0.941
0.941

P(det)
= 0.99
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P(lnch)
= 0.99
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P(lock)
= 0.99
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Page 12

P(trk)
= 0.99

P(hit)
= 0.99
Probability

P(kill)
= 0.99

system
success

2000 American Society for Quality.

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Probability Theorems
Applying Probability Rules: Parallel Probability Example
Parallel
ParallelProbability
Probabilityisisaacommon
commonreliability
reliabilityapplication
applicationcombining
combining
the
themultiplicative
multiplicativeand
andcomplementary
complementarylaws.
laws.For
Forexample:
example:ininaacritical
critical
operation,
operation,at
atleast
leastone
onepump
pumpmust
mustrun
runto
toprevent
preventoperational
operationalfailure.
failure.
For
Forsafety,
safety,three
threepumps
pumpsrun
runcontinuously,
continuously,and
andeach
eachpump
pumphas
hasaa
reliability
reliabilityof
of99%.
99%.What
Whatisisthe
theprobably
probablyof
ofsuccess?
success?
Rpump 1
= 0.99
Rpump 2
= 0.99

system
success

Rpump 3
= 0.99
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To
Tosolve
solvethis
thisproblem
problemsimply,
simply,ititisisbest
bestto
to
consider
considerhow
howthe
thesystem
systemcould
couldfail:
fail:
Since:
Since: P(success)
P(success)++P(fail)
P(fail)==1.0
1.0
P(success)
P(success)==1.0
1.0--P(fail)
P(fail)
ItItisiseasy
easyto
tocalculate
calculateP(failure)
P(failure)since
since
failure
failureoccurs
occurswhen
whenall
allthree
threepumps
pumpsfail.
fail.

Page 13

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

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Probability Theorems
Parallel Probability Example Continued
Parallel
ParallelProbability
Probability(contd)
(contd)
To
Tohave
havesystem
systemfailure,
failure,all
allthree
threepumps
pumpsmust
mustfail.
fail.This
Thisisisanother
anotherseries
series
probability
probabilitycalculation,
calculation,but
butusing
usingfailure
failureas
asan
anoutcome
outcomeinstead
insteadof
of
success.
success.The
Themath
mathisisexactly
exactlythe
thesame.
same.
P(system
P(systemfail)
fail)==P(pump
P(pump11fail)
fail)xxP(pump
P(pump22fail)
fail)xxP(pump
P(pump33fail)
fail)
Since
failisis0.99,
0.99,the
theprobability
probabilitythat
thateach
each
Sincethe
theprobabilities
probabilitiesof
ofeach
eachto
tonot
notfail
will
willfail
fail==1.0
1.0--0.99
0.99==0.01
0.01
P(system
P(systemfail)
fail)==0.01
0.01xx0.01
0.01xx0.01
0.01==(0.01)^3
(0.01)^3==0.000001
0.000001
P(Fpump 1)
= 0.01
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P(Fpump 2)
= 0.01
Page 14

P(Fpump 3)
= 0.01
Probability

system
failure
2000 American Society for Quality.
All Rights Reserved.

Probability Theorems
Parallel Probability Example (contd)
To calculate system success, P(success) + P(fail) = 1.0
P(success) = 1.0 - P(fail)
P(success) = 1.0 - P(fail) = 1 - [(0.01)^3] = 1 - .000001= 0.999999
Rpump 1
= 0.99
Rpump 2
= 0.99

system
success

Rpump 3
= 0.99

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Page 15

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

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Probability Theorems
Applying Probability Rules: Question 6
6.
6. IfIf99%
99%of
ofpurchase
purchaseorders
ordersprocessed
processedhave
haveno
noerrors
errors
and
andaasample
sampleof
of30
30purchase
purchaseorders
ordersare
arereviewed
reviewedto
to
look
lookfor
forerrors,
errors,what
whatititthe
theprobability
probabilityof
offinding
findingno
no
purchase
purchaseorders
orderswith
witherrors
errorsin
inthe
thesample
sampleof
of30?
30?

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Page 16

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

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Probability Theorems
Applying Probability Rules: Question 7 and 7a
7.
7. To
Toget
getto
toPensacola
Pensacolafrom
fromTulsa,
Tulsa,you
youhave
haveto
tochange
changeplanes
planes
twice,
twice,once
onceininDallas
Dallasand
andonce
onceininAtlanta.
Atlanta.Your
Yourcarrier
carrierproudly
proudly
advertises
advertisesan
anon-time
on-timerecord
recordof
of95%.
95%.But,
But,your
yourconnections
connectionsare
are
tight.
tight.IfIfyou
youare
arelate
lateinto
intoDFW,
DFW,you
youwill
willmiss
missyour
yourconnection
connection
about
about60%
60%the
thetime.
time.IfIfyou
youare
arelate
lateinto
intoATL,
ATL,you
youwill
willmiss
missyour
your
connection
connectionabout
about70%
70%the
thetime.
time.What
Whatisisthe
theprobability
probabilityyou
youwill
will
actually
actuallyarrive
arriveininPensacola
Pensacolaon
onthe
theflight
flightyou
youhave
havescheduled?
scheduled?
(Assume
(Assumeindependence
independenceof
ofevents.)
events.)
7a.
7a.Note:
Note:independence
independencedoes
doesnot
notapply
applywhen
whenall
allplanes
planesare
arelate
latedue
due
to
toweather,
weather,high
hightraffic
trafficback-ups,
back-ups,etc.
etc.When
Whenthere
thereare
aredependent
dependent
events,
events,what
whathappens
happensto
tothe
theprobability
probabilityyou
youarrive
arriveas
asplanned?
planned?
Recognize

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Page 17

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

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Probability Tree Example

ATL
DFW

1.0 OT

1.0 OT
.05 Late

PSC

.30 OT
.70 Late

TUL

1.0 OT

PSC

ATL

.30 OT

PSC

Late

Late

.05 Late
.40 OT

Late

ATL
.95 OT

.05 Late

.70 Late

DFW
.60 Late

On Time

ATL

Late

Measure

.95 OT

.95 OT

Recognize

PSC

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Page 18

1.0 Late

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

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Probability Tree Example Continued

Recognize

.95 (.95)

=.9025

.95 (.05) (.30)

=.01425

.05 ( .4) (.95)

=.019

.05 ( .4) (.05) (.30)

=.0003
.9360 - 1 = .06395

.95 (.05) (.70)

=.03325

.05 (.40) (.05) (.70)

=.0007

.05 (.60) (1) (1)

=.03
.06395

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Page 19

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

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Permutations and Combinations

Formulae
The number of ways a population (p) can be divided
into groups of size (g)
Order counts in permutations

p!
Permutations ( p, g ) =
( p g )!
Order does not count in combinations

p!
Combinations ( p, g ) =
( p g )! g !
Recognize

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Page 20

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

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Permutations and Combinations

Applying Probability Rules: Questions 8 & 9
\DataFile\Probabil.xls
8. How many permutations of five cards are there in
a standard 52 card deck?
311,875,200
9. How many five card poker hands are possible from a
standard 52 card deck?
2,598,960

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Page 21

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

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Permutations and Combinations

Applying Probability Rules: Question 10
How many different samples of size n could
you select from a population of g items?
Let n = 5

g = 100

p!
Combinations (p,g) =
(p-g)!g!
100*99*98....
Combinations (100,5) =
(95*94*93...)*(5*4*8...)
Combinations (100,5) = 75,287,520
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Page 22

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

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Discrete Data Probability

Discrete Distribution Selection
Start

Hypergeometric
P(r) =

no

n
<0.10
N

P (r) =
yes

Binomial
(or)

n!
pr (1-p)n-r
r! (n-r)!
= np
= np(1-p)

successful
all possible
no

C d . C N-d
=

np>5

n-r

yes

CN
n

r = number of successes
n = number of trials
p = probability of success
N = population size
d = number of successes in
the population
= mean
= standard deviation
Recognize

Measure

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Poisson

no

P (r) = r e-
r!
= = np
2 =

Page 23

.1 < p < .9

Yes

Normal

= np
= np(1-p)

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

All Rights Reserved.

Determining Outcomes
Applying Probability Rules: Question 11

Real World Example:

A process produces one defective part in every thousand parts.
A test detects 99% of the defects, but 2% of good parts fail test.
What is the probability that a part is defective given it failed test?
Given:
D = defective part
F = part fails test
P(D) is defective = .001
P (F|D) part fails the test given the part is defective = .99
P(F|Not D) fails test given part is not defective = .02

Recognize

Measure

Analyze

Improve

Page 24

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

All Rights Reserved.

Determining Outcomes
Question 11 Continued (using a truth table)
Given that a part failed test what is the probability of it being defective?

What are the possibilities?

F
Not F

D (defective)

Not D

F and D

F and Not D

Not F and D

Not F and Not D

Reminder
D = defective part
F = part fails test

Conditional Probability rules tell us that:

P(F and D)= P(F|D)*P(D)
P(F and Not D)= P(F|Not D)*P(Not D)
P(Not F and D)= P(Not F|D)*P(D)
P(Not F and Not D)= P(Not F|Not D)*P(Not D)
Recognize

Measure

Analyze

Improve

Page 25

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

All Rights Reserved.

Determining Outcomes
Question 11 Continued (using a truth table)
D (defective)
F
Not F
Sum

Reminder
D = defective part
F = part fails test

Not D

P(F|D)*P(D)

P(F|Not D)*P(Not D)

P(F)

P(Not F|D)*P(D)

P(Not F|Not D)*P(Not D)

P(Not F)

P(D)

Since these are the

only possibilities; the
probabilities for the
Columns and Rows
must Sum to 1

P(Not D)

Marginal Probability rules tell us that

P(D) = P(F and D) + P(Not F and D)
P(Not D) = P(F and Not D) + P(Not F and Not D)
P(F) = P(F and D) + P(F and Not D)
P(Not F) = P(Not F and D) + P(Not F and Not D)
P(D) + P(Not D) = 1
P(F) + P(Not F) = 1
Recognize

Measure

Analyze

Improve

Page 26

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

All Rights Reserved.

Determining Outcomes

Reminder
D = defective part
F = part fails test

Question 11 Continued (using a truth table)

D (defective)
Not D
F
Not F
Sum

P(F|D)*P(D) = .99 * .001

P(F|Not D)*P(Not D) = .02 * .999

P(Not F|D)*P(D) = .01 * .001

P(Not F|Not D)*P(Not D) = .98 * .999

P(D) = (.99 * .001) + (.01 * .001) P(Not D) = (.02 * .999) + (.98 * .999)

Substituting our known values into the above equations yield:

P(F and D) = .99*.001
P(F and Not D) = .02*(1-.001)=.02*.999
P(D) = P(F|D)*P(D) + P(Not F|D)*P(D)
P(Not F|D) = 1- P(F|D) = 1 - . 99 = .01 so P(Not F and D) = P(Not F|D)*P(D) =.01*.001
P(Not D) = P(F | Not D)*P(Not D) + P(Not F | Not D)*P(Not D)
P(Not F | Not D) = 1 - .02 = .98 so P(Not F and Not D) = P(Not F |Not D)*P(Not D) =
.98 * (1-.001) =.98*.999
Recognize

Measure

Analyze

Improve

Page 27

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

All Rights Reserved.

Determining Outcomes
More Question 11

D
F
Not F

Not D

.001*.99=.00099

Sum

.02*.999=.01998 .02097

.01* .001 = .00001 .98 * .999 = .979 .97903

Sum

.0010

.999

P (D and F) .00099
=
= .0472
P (D|F) =
P (F)
.02097
Given these conditions, less than 5% of parts
that fail test are really defective!
Recognize

Measure

Analyze

Improve

Page 28

Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

All Rights Reserved.

Determining Outcomes
Question 11 Decision Tree
0.98 Good Parts Test
as Good
0.999 Good
Parts or
999,000 out of
1,000,000
999,000
Untested
Good
Parts

19,980 Good parts that tested as Bad

0.999 x 0.02 = 0.01998

Total Parts tested Bad: 19,980 + 990 = 20,970

% Defective that are really defective = 990 / 20,970 = 4.72%

Build
1,000,000
Parts
0.001 Bad
Parts or
1000 out of
1,000,000

Recognize

0.02
Good
Parts
Test as
Bad

979,020 Good parts that tested Good

0.999 x .98 = 0.97902

Measure

0.01 Bad
parts test as
Good
1000
Untested
Bad Parts

Analyze

0.99 Bad
parts test
as Bad

Improve

Page 29

10 Bad Parts that test as Good

0.001 x 0.01 = 0.00001

990 Bad Parts tested as Bad

0.001 x 0.99 = 0.00099
Probability

2000 American Society for Quality.

All Rights Reserved.