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Absolute=|Y Yc|
Squared=( Y Yc )
SD =
(Deviation Squared )
N
Where:
Y =H i s t o r i c al D a t a ( in k g )
Y c=P r o j e c t e d D a t a (in k g)
Arithmetic Straight Line Method (ASLM)
The arithmetic straight line method assumes that the annual increase in the future will
remain constant.
Equation used:
A
n1
Yc=Y n1+ X
Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method (AGCM)
Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method uses the assumption that the rate of increase in the
projected values is constant even though the amount of change keeps on increasing.
Equation used:
Annual Increase =Y nY n1
%Increase=
Annual Increase
x 100
Y n1
X =Average Increase=
( Increase)
x 100
n1
Yc=Y n1+ 1+
X
100
Annual Increase =Y nY n1
%Increase=
Annual Increase
x 100
Y n1
X =Average Increase=
( Increase)
x 100
n1
Yc=Y n1+ 1+
X
100
a=
Y
n
b=
XY
X2
Yc=a+bX
Statistical Parabolic Projection Method (SPSM)
SPSM uses the assumption that the change in the predicted values and the percentage change
may be decreasing or increasing.
Equation used:
n ( X 4 )
( X 4 ) ( XY ) ( X 2) ( X 2 Y )
a=
b=
( XY )
X2
(
n X 4 )
n ( X 2 Y ) ( X 2 ) ( X 2 Y )
c=
Yc=a+bX + c X 2
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Yc
Deviation
Absolute
Squared
4.68x1011
1.57x1012
2.65x1012
3.13x1012
2.63x1012
1.62x1012
3.75x1011
1.40x1012
0
1.38 x1013
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Net
weight (kg)
4,245,112
3,802,093
3,475,682
3,342,084
3,439,728
3,828,102
4,418,323
5,320,911
4,991,860
6,415,424
9.26x1012
STANDARD DEVIATION: 1,029,030,116,998
X2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
385
4,327,931.85
4,327,931.85
4,327,931.85
4,327,931.85
4,327,931.85
4,327,931.85
671,138.85
671,138.85
671,138.85
671,138.85
671,138.85
671,138.85
-4,243,898
-4,526,663
-4,607,581
-4,376,132
-5,376,321
-4,623,897
7,683,626.09
8,354,764.94
9,025,903.79
9,697,042.64
10,368,181.48
11,039,320.33
1.80x1013
2.05x1013
2.12x1013
1.92x1013
2.89x1013
2.14x1013
1.55x1014
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
X4
6,561
2,401
625
81
1
1
81
625
2,401
6,561
19,338
X2Y
(38,206,008)
(26,614,651)
(17,378,410)
(10,026,252)
(3,439,728)
3,828,102
343,854,072
186,302,557
86,892,050
30,078,756
3,439,728
3,828,102
3,690,370
3,690,370
3,690,370
3,690,370
3,690,370
3,690,370
123,347
123,347
123,347
123,347
123,347
123,347
19,320
19,688
19,688
19,688
19,688
19,688
13,254,969
26,604,555
34,943,020
57,738,812
40,704,409
Bx
-1,110,120
-863,427
-616,733
-370,040
-123,347
123,347
370,040
616,733
863,427
1,110,120
39,764,907
133,022,775
244,601,140
519,649,307
1,591,433,394
3,690,370
3,690,370
3,690,370
3,690,370
123,347
123,347
123,347
123,347
19,688
19,688
19,688
19,688
638,832,501,927.48
STANDARD DEVIATION: 70,981,389,103
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
ASLM
6,656,569
6,897,715
7,138,861
7,380,006
7,621,152
7,862,298
8,103,444
8,344,589
8,585,735
8,826,881
AGCM
6,768,469
7,140,943
7,533,914
7,948,511
8,385,924
8,847,407
9,334,287
9,847,960
10,389,900
10,961,664
SSLM
55,660,917
68,713,653
83,108,668
98,845,960
115,925,530
134,347,378
154,111,503
175,217,906
197,666,587
221,457,545
SPPM
7,384,911
8,558,967
9,887,584
11,370,761
13,008,499
14,800,798
16,747,656
18,849,076
21,105,056
23,515,596
ASLM
9,000,000
8,500,000
f(x)
exp( 0.03 x+
) 6415423.4
f(x) =
= 6491248.7
- 0x^2 + 241145.75x
R
R =
=1
1
8,000,000
Year
AGCM
12,000,000
11,000,000
f(x) = 12420.05x^2 + 328049.17x + 6433455.73
10,000,000
R = 1
Net Weight, kg
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
Year
SSLM
250,000,000
230,000,000
210,000,000
190,000,000
170,000,000
150,000,000
130,000,000
110,000,000
90,000,000
70,000,000
50,000,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
SPPM
25,000,000
23,000,000
21,000,000
19,000,000
17,000,000
15,000,000
13,000,000
11,000,000
9,000,000
7,000,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Table. The R2 Value of Each Projection Method for Supply of Propylene Glycol
Projection Method
Standard Deviation
R2
Equation
ASLM
AGCM
SSLM
SPPM
1,240,138
1,029,030,116,998
4,148,750
70,981,389,103
1
1
1
1
Base on the R 2 obtained from each of the method, the table shows that the ASLM is to
be used to project the supply of Propylene Glycol since it gave the lowest standard deviation and
all value of R2 is equal from the gathered historical data.
Table 2.15 Projected Supply of Propylene Glycol for the Next Ten Years Using
Statistical Parabolic Projection Method
Year Supply (Netweight kg)
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024