Quiz 1

Q1. What is the principal goal of

Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM)
approach to study of decision making?

How experts make decisions under

extreme time pressure in complex
and dynamic situations.

Q2. Heuristics and biases approach to

study decision making is important
because....

human beings tend to make

inconsistent judgements when
presented with the same
information in different ways.
TRUE

Q3. Naturalistic decision making (NDM)

community tries to understand how
experts use intuition to make effective
decisions, many times in life and death
situations.
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Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 9

Quiz 1
Q4. Study of heuristics and biases examines how System 1
simplifies decision tasks in order to make choices quickly
and economically.

TRUE

Q5. Naturalistic Decision Making examines how skill and

expertise aid decision making.

TRUE

Q6. Because System 1 uses heuristics, decision making skills FALSE

can be improved by teaching managers how to recognise
patterns and make fine discriminations between them in
fluid and rapidly changing situations.

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Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 9

Quiz 1
Q7. Experts who make decisions in naturalistic settings FALSE
almost always find it easy to articulate why and how
they made decisions.
Q8. "Could we be the Toys R Us of office supplies?" Thomas Stemberg, founder of Staples. This is a poor
example of analogical reasoning.

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Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 9

FALSE

Quiz 1
Q9. Confirmation bias gets in the way of analogical
reasoning when people actively seek evidence of
similarities and do not look for anomalies.

TRUE

Q10. Bazerman and Moore's prescription - six strategies

for improving decision making - is a sure shot road to
success.

FALSE

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Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 9

Intuitive Decision Making

Intuition, Insight and Innovation

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Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 9

Archimedes
Problem: purity of gold in votive crown?
The bathtub episode!
Measuring density of crown by the water
displaced
Eureka!

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Martin Chalfies Eureka

Was conducting research on nervous system of worms

1988: attended seminar on bioluminiscent organisms
Eureka!
2008: Nobel Prize in Chemistry for work on Green
Fluorescent Protein

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Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 9

Harry Markopolos
Securities executive and certified fraud examiner
1999: Friend challenged him to match Madoffs financial results
Harry examined Madoffs financial records, says, There is no way
this is real. This is bogus.
Complained and chased SEC till Madoff turned himself in in 2008.

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Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 9

Barry Marshall
Till 1990s gastric ulcers were assumed caused by stress surgery
or antacids
Marshall found Helicobacter pylori bacteria in gut of people with
peptic ulcers
Research rejected. He consumed H. pylori. Got ulcer and treated
himself with antibiotic.
Now treated with antibiotics
Nobel Prize in 2005

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Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 9

Aron Ralstons 127 hours

Canyoneering accident arm pinned by large rock

Failed to to cut his arm loose
Prepared to die
Epiphany on day 5: instead of freeing his arm, he could
free himself from the arm
Amputated his arm after 5 days 7 hrs

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How do solutions occur?

Insight
Dawning of an idea
Revelation of a way out
Realisation of a possible solution

Intuition and insight are different

Intuition is the use of patterns experts have learnt*
Insight is discovery of new patterns*
* Gary Klein
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Why do we need insights?

Creativity
Problem solving
Innovation

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Sources of insight
Flash of illumination
Archimedes, Chalfie

Connections
Admiral Yamamoto

Coincidences and curiosities

Barry Marshall

Contradictions

Some insights
emerge slowly

Harry Markopolos

Creative desperation
Aron Ralston
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Triple Path Model of Insight

Source: Gary Klein

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Insights fundamentally change the

way we see something.
This change triggers

Action
Seeing
Feeling
Desire

This fundamental change is the source of

creativity and innovation
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Creativity
Innovation
New revenue
Leadership

A firms
performance
improvement

Errors &
uncertainty

Insights

Productivity
Efficiency
Cost reduction
Predictability
Source: Gary Klein
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How to reduce errors and uncertainty

Impose tighter standards

Increase controls
Document all sources
Identify all assumptions
Estimate uncertainty of
assumptions
Increase number of reviews
Justify conclusions with greater
rigour
Rely on checklists and
procedures
Increase precision of schedules

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They distract
Make us reluctant to
speculate
They put insights in
negative light
Repress anomalies
Make us passive
They suppress insights!

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Questions
Should we schedule regular meetings to
generate and harness insights?
Brainstorming as a way to generate insights?
Short intense meetings to discuss insights?

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How can we foster insight?

Appreciative enquiry
Critical thinking, questioning not listing assumptions
Incubation, pauseespecially when faced with impasse
Reduce the tyranny of the Down Arrow
Loosen the filter, provide an appeals forum for rejected ideas
Corral Six Sigma

Increase organisational willpower

To act, to redraw goals when necessary

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"If I had sixty minutes to do a math problem,

I would spend the first fifty-five minutes
trying to understand the question."
Albert Einstein
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