Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Residential
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Commercial
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Industrial
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Transportation
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Total
Total all end use sectors
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Delivered Energy
Electricity-Related Losses /
Total
Electric Power /b
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
2030
2010
2030
0.34
0.69
0.11
0.61
0.02
1.77
0.37
0.84
0.11
0.92
0.02
2.26
0.04
0.16
0.00
0.16
0.01
0.38
0.04
0.18
0.00
0.20
0.01
0.43
0.95
0.95
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.82
0.82
0.82
1.00
0.82
1.43
1.43
1.43
1.00
1.43
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.16
0.25
0.03
0.49
0.01
0.94
0.18
0.32
0.03
0.78
0.01
1.32
0.02
0.10
0.00
0.16
0.00
0.28
0.02
0.13
0.00
0.22
0.00
0.38
0.90
0.90
0.90
1.00
0.90
0.82
0.82
0.82
1.00
0.82
1.43
1.43
1.43
1.00
1.43
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.96
1.72
1.54
1.09
0.08
6.40
2.41
2.35
2.15
1.75
0.15
8.80
0.32
0.28
0.06
0.12
0.08
0.86
0.31
0.28
0.08
0.12
0.14
0.92
0.60
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.90
0.82
0.82
0.82
1.00
0.82
1.43
1.43
1.43
1.00
1.43
0.72
0.82
0.73
0.93
1.00
3.29
0.04
0.01
0.03
3.36
4.44
0.05
0.04
4.53
0.95
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.97
1.07
0.03
0.00
0.00
1.10
0.73
0.90
0.90
1.00
0.19
0.82
0.82
1.00
0.64
1.43
1.43
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
12.47
16.92
2.50
2.83
2010
5.75
2030
7.40
2010
1.34
2030
1.45
2.70
3.57
0.57
0.61
1.68
2.22
0.11
12.47
4.68
17.14
2.29
3.48
0.18
16.92
6.32
23.24
0.07
0.44
0.09
2.50
0.95
3.45
0.08
0.54
0.16
2.83
1.11
3.94
0.31
1.32
3.00
0.27
1.95
4.47
0.02
0.23
0.70
0.02
0.17
0.92
= user inputs
= key results
EHCM = electricity and hydrogen conservation
Upstream factor = ratio of energy use in WWS
Nuclear
Renewables
Total
Total Energy Consumption
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total
0.96
1.29
6.89
1.32
1.79
9.80
0.28
0.15
1.39
6.06
4.02
4.69
0.96
1.40
17.14
7.67
5.51
6.77
1.32
1.97
23.24
1.36
0.80
0.77
0.28
0.25
3.45
0.32
0.21
1.64 Energy share percentages -- World
2010
2030
1.47
35%
33%
0.78
23%
24%
1.00
27%
29%
0.32
6%
6%
0.37
8%
8%
3.94
100%
100%
a/ Electricity losses incurred in the transmission and distribution of electric power. May include some heat production.
b/ Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.
Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007),
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008), AEO
National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2008.D031608A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Projection
Upstrea
m
factorsH2
Required
after
EHCM
TW year 2030
World
U.S.
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.90
0.85
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.29
0.61
0.08
0.83
0.02
1.83
0.03
0.13
0.18
0.01
0.35
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.95
1.00
0.95
0.15
0.26
0.03
0.78
0.01
1.22
0.02
0.10
0.00
0.22
0.00
0.35
0.72
0.82
0.73
0.93
1.00
0.95
0.95
0.95
1.00
0.95
1.76
1.95
1.59
1.62
0.13
7.05
0.22
0.23
0.06
0.11
0.12
0.74
1.18
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.95
1.30
0.04
0.03
1.37
0.31
0.02
0.33
11.47
1.78
e heat production.
Value
2030
0.80
0.97
0.80
0.70
1.12
1.32
1.10
0.15
5.30
2.70
0.28
0.18
0.27
0.07
Source
LEM documentation (Delucchi, 2003)
LEM documentation (Delucchi, 2003)
Assume hydrogen same as fossil fuel
AVCEM, LEM Documentation (Delucchi, 2003,2005)
AVCEM (Delucchi, 2005)
% share
2174
73%
Aviation
352
12%
Marine
216
7%
Other
236
8%
Road
2978
Source: IEA (2008) WEO data p. 464, 508
Transport fuel use in U. S., 2006
Trillion BTU
% share
17,216
61%
33
0%
Jet fuel
3,379
12%
Diesel
6,414
23%
27
0%
Residual fuel
906
3%
Lubricants
147
1%
Motor gas
Aviation gas
LPG
Total
28,122
% share
Railroad
3,552
7%
Vessel
1,903
4%
39,118
83%
328
1%
2,479
5%
On-highway
Military
Off-highway
Total
47,380
61%
95%
On-road diesel
19%
70%
Off-road diesel
1%
50%
Military
0%
0%
Trains
2%
80%
Air planes
12%
0%
Ships
4%
0%
Lubricants
1%
0%
100%
73%
Total
Table 2.5 Household Energy Consumption and Expenditures by End Use and Energy Source, Sele
Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2007 (2008).
Air
Year
Natural
Gas
Space Heating 1
ElecFuel
tricity 5
Oil 6
Conditioning 2
LPG 7
Electricity 5
1978
4.26
0.4
2.05
0.23
0.32
1979
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1980
3.41
0.27
1.3
0.23
0.36
1981
3.69
0.26
1.06
0.21
0.34
1982
3.14
0.25
1.04
0.19
0.31
1984
3.51
0.25
1.11
0.21
0.32
1987
3.38
0.28
1.05
0.22
0.44
1990
3.37
0.3
0.93
0.19
0.48
1993
3.67
0.41
0.95
0.3
0.46
1997
3.61
0.4
0.91
0.26
0.42
2001
3.32
0.39
0.62
0.28
0.62
0.95
1.00
0.95
0.95
1.00
NG
Fuel oil
0.95
0.96
1978
11.49
3.53
8.06
1.05
4.12
1979
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1980
13.22
3.78
10.48
1.78
5.84
1981
16.62
3.93
9.44
1.78
6.23
1982
17.74
4.21
8.8
1.69
6.23
1984
20.66
4.62
8.51
7.06
1987
18.05
5.53
6.25
1.85
9.77
1990
18.59
6.16
7.42
2.01
11.23
1993
21.95
8.66
6.24
2.81
11.31
1997
24.11
8.56
6.57
2.79
10.2
2001
31.84
8.98
5.66
4.04
15.94
Electrifiable, by fuel
"Total."
5
Retail electricity. One kilowatthour=3,412 Btu.
6
Distillate fuel oil and kerosene.
Liquefied petroleum gases.
s."
Natural
Gas
Water Heating
ElecFuel
tricity 5
Oil 6
Natural
Gas
LPG 7
Appliances 3,4
Electricity 5
LPG 7
0.29
0.14
0.06
0.28
1.45
0.03
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1.15
0.3
0.22
0.07
0.36
1.54
0.05
1.13
0.3
0.22
0.06
0.43
1.52
0.05
1.15
0.28
0.15
0.06
0.43
1.5
0.05
1.1
0.32
0.15
0.06
0.35
1.59
0.04
1.1
0.31
0.17
0.06
0.34
1.72
0.04
1.16
0.34
0.11
0.06
0.33
1.91
0.03
1.31
0.34
0.12
0.05
0.29
2.08
0.03
1.29
0.39
0.16
0.08
0.37
2.33
0.02
1.15
0.36
0.13
0.05
0.37
2.52
0.05
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.80
3.14
0.56
0.36
0.93
19.1
0.25
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
4.51
4.45
1.76
0.57
1.91
26.74
0.44
5.13
4.94
1.94
0.51
2.17
29.7
0.52
6.51
1.28
0.54
2.58
31.29
0.52
6.63
6.44
1.09
0.58
2.31
36.36
0.54
6.02
6.45
0.94
0.5
2.02
39.83
0.46
6.59
7.21
0.83
0.65
2.03
46.95
0.48
8.08
7.58
0.74
0.58
1.98
53.52
0.42
8.84
8.99
1.04
0.89
2.86
60.57
0.36
11.31
8.47
1.15
0.69
3.83
66.94
0.86
Notes:
Natural
Gas 2
Electricity 5
Total
Fuel
Oil 4,6
LPG 7
Wood 8
5.58
2.47
2.19
0.33
NA
5.31
2.42
1.71
0.31
NA
4.97
2.48
1.52
0.35
0.85
5.27
2.42
1.28
0.31
0.87
4.74
2.35
1.2
0.29
0.97
4.98
2.48
1.26
0.31
0.98
4.83
2.76
1.22
0.32
0.85
4.86
3.03
1.04
0.28
0.58
5.27
3.28
1.07
0.38
0.55
5.28
3.54
1.07
0.36
0.43
4.84
3.89
0.75
0.38
0.37
15.3
29.89
8.62
1.66
NA
17.84
32.56
10.73
2.06
NA
19.77
40.81
12.24
2.8
NA
24.03
44.8
11.29
2.81
NA
26.96
46.74
10.07
2.75
NA
29.78
54.48
9.6
3.12
NA
26.15
61.58
7.21
2.81
NA
27.26
71.54
8.25
3.14
NA
32.04
81.08
6.98
3.81
NA
35.81
88.33
7.61
4.04
NA
46.98
100.34
6.83
5.6
NA
bience.
nt rounding.
p://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs.
Table 2.3 Manufacturing Energy Consumption for Heat, Power, and Electricity Generation by End U
Net Electricity 1
End-Use Category
Indirect End Use (Boiler Fuel)
Conventional Boiler Use
CHP 6 and/or Cogeneration Process
Direct End Use
All Process Uses
Process Heating
Process Cooling and Refrigeration
Machine Drive
Electrochemical Processes
Other Process Uses
All Non-Process Uses
Facility Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning
Facility Lighting
Other Facility Support
Onsite Transportation
Conventional Electricity Generation
Other Non-Process Use
Million kWhs
3,540
2,496
1,043
20
12
8
Million bbl
6
4
2
2
2
(s)
650,100
100,541
56,723
417,998
71,045
3,793
150,530
76,840
57,460
14,087
1,212
931
10
9
(s)
(s)
(s)
1
1
(s)
(s)
(s)
7
4
(s)
3
(s)
9
1
(s)
6
Q
Q
16
15
(s)
1
(s)
6
1
(s)
5
(s)
(s)
28,087
832,257
33
24
12
9
4
127
76
51
2,218
343
194
1,426
242
13
514
262
196
48
4
26
Trillion Btu
35
8
25
8
10
0
58
0
2
0
0
24
2
16
0
1
60
0
4
0
0
3
0
0
0
1
5
0
1
35
0
5
0
0
18
0
96
12
2,840
191
131
101
"Net Electricity" is the sum of purchases, transfers in, and onsite generation from noncombustibl Excludes steam and hot w
e
renewable
energy sources, minus quantities sold and transferred out; it excludes onsite generatio
combustible fuels.
2
Liquefied petroleum gases.
_ _ = Not applicable. (s)=E
than 50 percent.
3
Natural gas liquids.
Notes:
electricity generation, regar
quantities of energy that we
establishment, plus those t
energy, or were extracted fr
basis of reasonable approx
independent rounding, the
withheld because the relati
4
Excludes coal coke and breeze.
Web Page: For related info
5
Total of listed energy sources. Excludes inputs of unallocated energy sources (6,006 trillion Btu). w.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs.
Source: Energy Informatio
Survey."
6
Combined-heat-and-power plants.
1
Natural Gas
Total 5
2,878
2,670
44
106
58
500
406
29
2
54
10
17
17
(s)
(s)
(s)
1
(s)
(s)
1
0
157
(s)
5,641
53
2,162
1,306
857
776
255
521
2,742
45
109
0
60
368
0
5
0
7
417
0
30
2
55
5
0
0
0
14
Trillion Btu
Fraction
3,120 electrifiable
1,679
0.75
1,443
0.50
5,722
3,595
241
1,562
242
81
1,124
697
196
79
59
70
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
10
13
1.00
162
299
1.00
5795
1181
10,268
able fraction
Report: An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the Am
SR/OIAF/2009-03
Scenario:
stimulus d041409a
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.55
1.68
0.02
2.27
1.13
0.00
1.13
0.06
0.00
0.06
0.40
0.16
4.03
0.35
4.38
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.58
1.70
0.04
2.34
1.27
0.00
1.27
0.06
0.00
0.06
0.87
0.16
4.71
0.35
5.06
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.58
1.70
0.04
2.34
1.34
0.00
1.34
0.06
0.00
0.06
0.66
0.17
4.57
0.38
4.95
0.06
0.00
0.01
0.54
1.81
0.03
2.44
0.97
0.00
0.97
0.06
0.00
0.06
0.76
0.18
4.41
0.39
4.81
61%
100%
23%
14%
3%
4%
16%
61%
100%
23%
14%
3%
5%
16%
70%
100%
25%
16%
3%
5%
19%
74%
100%
27%
17%
4%
6%
20%
73%
100%
29%
13%
4%
6%
19%
0.18
2.16
0.36
1.26
0.24
1.42
0.93
1.26
1.69
0.19
2.16
0.36
1.28
0.25
1.30
0.91
1.19
1.68
0.17
2.07
0.35
1.20
0.22
1.11
0.83
1.00
1.70
0.33
1.63
0.35
1.17
0.19
1.05
0.78
0.91
1.70
0.21
1.65
0.34
1.15
0.17
1.05
0.75
0.87
1.81
Miscellaneous Petroleum 2/
Petroleum Subtotal
Natural Gas Heat and Power
Natural-Gas-to-Liquids Heat and Power
Natural Gas Feedstocks
Lease and Plant Fuel 3/
Natural Gas Subtotal
Metallurgical Coal and Coke 4/
Other Industrial Coal
Coal-to-Liquids Heat and Power
Coal Subtotal
Biofuels Heat and Coproducts
Renewables 5/
Purchased Electricity
Delivered Energy
Electricity Related Losses
Total
0.63
10.13
6.10
0.00
0.58
1.16
7.83
0.66
1.25
0.00
1.92
0.30
1.70
3.45
25.33
7.48
32.81
0.65
9.96
6.27
0.00
0.55
1.20
8.02
0.62
1.21
0.00
1.83
0.40
1.64
3.43
25.29
7.48
32.77
0.60
9.24
6.27
0.00
0.57
1.32
8.15
0.64
1.19
0.00
1.84
0.87
1.66
3.32
25.09
7.11
32.20
0.59
8.71
6.04
0.00
0.47
1.31
7.82
0.46
1.00
0.00
1.45
0.66
1.56
3.12
23.33
6.77
30.10
0.34
8.34
5.69
0.00
0.47
1.28
7.44
0.52
1.00
0.00
1.52
0.76
1.57
3.16
22.79
6.89
29.68
1/ Includes energy for combined heat and power plants, except those whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electric
2/ Includes lubricants and miscellaneous petroleum products.
3/ Represents natural gas used in well, field, and lease operations, and in natural gas processing plant machinery.
4/ Includes net coal coke imports.
5/ Includes consumption of energy produced from hydroelectric, wood and wood waste, municipal waste, and other biomass
6/ Includes energy consumed by petroleum, coal to liquids, and natural gas to liquids, and biofuel refiners. Excludes hydrog
Industrial Consumption.
Btu = British thermal unit.
- - = Not applicable.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2006 and 2007 are model results an
Sources: 2006 and 2007 prices for motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil are based on: Energy Information Administration (E
DOE/EIA-0487(2007) (Washington, DC, August 2008). 2006 and 2007 petrochemical feedstock and asphalt and road oil price
Report 2006, DOE/EIA-0214(2006) (Washington, DC, October 2008). 2006 and 2007 coal prices are based on: EIA, Quarter
DOE/EIA-0121(2007/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2008) and EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System run nostimls.d
Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). 2006 and 2007 natural gas prices are base
Survey 1994 and industrial and wellhead prices from the Natural Gas Annual 2006, DOE/EIA-0131(2006) (Washington, DC, O
DOE/EIA-0130(2008/04) (Washington, DC, April 2008). 2006 refining consumption values based on: Petroleum Supply Annu
DC, September 2007). 2007 refining consumption based on: Petroleum Supply Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0340(2007)/1 (Washi
consumption values are based on: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). 20
Industry model, November 2008. Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System run stimulus.d041409a.
Provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.55
1.79
0.03
2.43
1.13
0.00
1.13
0.06
0.00
0.06
0.85
0.19
4.66
0.41
5.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.54
1.71
0.03
2.34
1.21
0.00
1.21
0.06
0.02
0.08
0.84
0.19
4.66
0.41
5.08
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.54
1.66
0.03
2.29
1.26
0.00
1.26
0.06
0.06
0.12
0.84
0.19
4.71
0.42
5.12
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.53
1.66
0.03
2.29
1.24
0.00
1.24
0.06
0.16
0.21
0.84
0.19
4.77
0.41
5.18
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.51
1.64
0.03
2.25
1.25
0.00
1.25
0.06
0.17
0.23
0.85
0.20
4.79
0.43
5.22
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.51
1.64
0.03
2.24
1.26
0.00
1.26
0.06
0.18
0.24
0.89
0.20
4.84
0.43
5.27
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.61
0.03
2.20
1.27
0.00
1.27
0.06
0.20
0.26
0.93
0.20
4.86
0.43
5.29
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.49
1.60
0.03
2.19
1.27
0.00
1.27
0.06
0.21
0.27
0.99
0.20
4.93
0.44
5.37
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.49
1.62
0.03
2.19
1.27
0.00
1.27
0.06
0.23
0.29
1.07
0.20
5.02
0.44
5.46
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.49
1.61
0.03
2.18
1.28
0.00
1.28
0.06
0.25
0.31
1.23
0.20
5.20
0.44
5.64
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.48
1.61
0.03
2.16
1.31
0.00
1.31
0.06
0.26
0.32
1.37
0.21
5.37
0.44
5.81
71%
100%
28%
15%
4%
6%
20%
68%
100%
27%
15%
5%
6%
20%
66%
100%
26%
16%
7%
6%
19%
65%
100%
27%
16%
12%
6%
20%
64%
100%
27%
16%
13%
6%
20%
64%
100%
27%
16%
13%
6%
20%
63%
100%
27%
16%
14%
6%
20%
63%
100%
27%
16%
15%
6%
21%
63%
100%
27%
16%
16%
6%
21%
63%
100%
27%
16%
17%
6%
21%
62%
100%
26%
17%
17%
6%
22%
0.22
1.65
0.35
1.20
0.17
1.06
0.77
1.01
1.79
0.22
1.69
0.36
1.22
0.17
1.09
0.79
1.10
1.71
0.22
1.73
0.35
1.22
0.16
1.13
0.81
1.16
1.66
0.22
1.69
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.11
0.82
1.17
1.66
0.22
1.63
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.08
0.80
1.16
1.64
0.22
1.58
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.06
0.79
1.15
1.64
0.22
1.56
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.06
0.79
1.15
1.61
0.22
1.53
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.05
0.78
1.14
1.60
0.20
1.50
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.05
0.78
1.15
1.62
0.21
1.51
0.34
1.20
0.16
1.05
0.78
1.14
1.61
0.20
1.50
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.05
0.77
1.12
1.61
sumption
0.32
8.53
5.95
0.00
0.47
1.26
7.69
0.54
1.03
0.00
1.57
0.85
1.57
3.25
23.47
7.10
30.57
0.30
8.64
6.15
0.00
0.48
1.24
7.87
0.55
1.06
0.02
1.64
0.84
1.57
3.35
23.90
7.32
31.22
0.28
8.74
6.27
0.00
0.49
1.23
7.98
0.56
1.09
0.06
1.71
0.84
1.57
3.42
24.26
7.46
31.72
0.27
8.64
6.20
0.00
0.49
1.21
7.90
0.55
1.10
0.16
1.81
0.84
1.55
3.42
24.16
7.43
31.58
0.25
8.47
6.14
0.00
0.48
1.20
7.82
0.53
1.10
0.17
1.80
0.85
1.56
3.41
23.92
7.37
31.29
0.24
8.39
6.10
0.00
0.48
1.20
7.78
0.52
1.10
0.18
1.80
0.89
1.59
3.41
23.86
7.37
31.23
0.23
8.30
6.10
0.00
0.48
1.20
7.77
0.52
1.10
0.20
1.82
0.93
1.61
3.43
23.86
7.42
31.28
d 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.
formation Administration (EIA), Petroleum Marketing Annual 2007,
nd asphalt and road oil prices are based on: EIA, State Energy Data
are based on: EIA, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2007,
eling System run nostimls.d041409a. 2006 and 2007 electricity prices:
natural gas prices are based on: EIA, Manufacturing Energy Consumption
(2006) (Washington, DC, October, 2007) and the Natural Gas Monthly,
n: Petroleum Supply Annual 2006, DOE/EIA-0340(2006)/1 (Washington,
E/EIA-0340(2007)/1 (Washington, DC, July 2008). Other 2006 and 2007
hington, DC, June 2008). 2006 and 2007 shipments: IHS Global Insight
un stimulus.d041409a.
0.23
8.24
6.09
0.00
0.47
1.21
7.77
0.51
1.10
0.21
1.83
0.99
1.63
3.46
23.93
7.46
31.39
0.23
8.23
6.06
0.00
0.46
1.22
7.75
0.51
1.10
0.23
1.84
1.07
1.65
3.47
24.00
7.46
31.46
0.24
8.24
6.07
0.00
0.46
1.23
7.77
0.50
1.10
0.25
1.85
1.23
1.68
3.48
24.24
7.48
31.72
0.24
8.17
6.10
0.00
0.46
1.24
7.80
0.50
1.10
0.26
1.86
1.37
1.70
3.48
24.39
7.45
31.84
he Economic Outlook
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.46
1.57
0.03
2.11
1.36
0.00
1.36
0.06
0.30
0.36
1.64
0.21
5.67
0.44
6.11
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.46
1.55
0.03
2.10
1.38
0.00
1.38
0.06
0.32
0.38
1.61
0.21
5.70
0.44
6.14
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.46
1.58
0.03
2.13
1.36
0.00
1.36
0.06
0.35
0.40
1.63
0.21
5.73
0.44
6.17
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.46
1.58
0.03
2.13
1.36
0.00
1.36
0.06
0.37
0.43
1.66
0.21
5.79
0.44
6.23
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.45
1.56
0.03
2.10
1.43
0.00
1.43
0.06
0.39
0.45
1.75
0.22
5.95
0.45
6.41
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.45
1.57
0.03
2.11
1.43
0.00
1.43
0.06
0.41
0.47
1.79
0.22
6.03
0.46
6.48
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.44
1.65
0.03
2.19
1.33
0.00
1.33
0.06
0.43
0.49
1.89
0.22
6.13
0.46
6.59
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.44
1.66
0.03
2.16
1.41
0.00
1.41
0.06
0.46
0.52
1.94
0.22
6.25
0.46
6.72
62%
100%
26%
17%
18%
6%
23%
61%
100%
26%
17%
19%
6%
23%
61%
100%
26%
17%
20%
6%
23%
61%
100%
26%
17%
21%
6%
23%
61%
100%
27%
17%
22%
6%
23%
61%
100%
27%
18%
23%
6%
24%
61%
100%
27%
18%
24%
6%
24%
60%
100%
28%
17%
26%
7%
25%
60%
100%
28%
18%
27%
7%
25%
0.20
1.49
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.04
0.76
1.10
1.56
0.20
1.48
0.34
1.18
0.16
1.03
0.76
1.09
1.57
0.22
1.46
0.34
1.19
0.15
1.02
0.75
1.09
1.55
0.21
1.45
0.35
1.20
0.15
1.01
0.76
1.10
1.58
0.22
1.41
0.35
1.21
0.15
0.99
0.75
1.11
1.58
0.22
1.37
0.35
1.22
0.15
0.96
0.74
1.12
1.56
0.22
1.34
0.35
1.22
0.15
0.93
0.74
1.12
1.57
0.21
1.30
0.35
1.22
0.15
0.91
0.72
1.11
1.65
0.18
1.26
0.35
1.23
0.15
0.88
0.72
1.12
1.66
0.24
8.07
6.15
0.00
0.45
1.28
7.88
0.49
1.10
0.28
1.87
1.56
1.73
3.47
24.59
7.40
31.98
0.23
8.04
6.19
0.00
0.45
1.34
7.98
0.48
1.11
0.30
1.89
1.64
1.76
3.49
24.79
7.38
32.17
0.23
8.01
6.24
0.00
0.45
1.36
8.05
0.48
1.11
0.32
1.91
1.61
1.79
3.50
24.88
7.37
32.24
0.22
8.03
6.23
0.00
0.45
1.39
8.07
0.47
1.11
0.35
1.92
1.63
1.82
3.50
24.97
7.33
32.30
0.22
8.00
6.23
0.00
0.44
1.40
8.07
0.45
1.11
0.37
1.92
1.66
1.85
3.48
24.98
7.26
32.24
0.22
7.90
6.27
0.00
0.43
1.42
8.12
0.43
1.10
0.39
1.93
1.75
1.88
3.46
25.03
7.20
32.23
0.21
7.84
6.23
0.00
0.42
1.42
8.08
0.42
1.10
0.41
1.93
1.79
1.90
3.43
24.97
7.12
32.09
0.21
7.84
6.09
0.00
0.41
1.42
7.93
0.40
1.10
0.43
1.93
1.89
1.92
3.40
24.91
7.05
31.96
0.21
7.76
6.12
0.00
0.40
1.44
7.96
0.39
1.09
0.46
1.93
1.94
1.94
3.37
24.89
6.96
31.86
Projections
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
10.4
19.1
3.2
15.1
0.7
48.5
10.3
20.5
3.3
18.1
0.7
52.8
10.5
22.1
3.5
20.7
0.6
57.5
10.8
23.2
3.6
23.1
0.6
61.3
11.0
24.1
3.5
25.2
0.6
64.4
11.1
25.2
3.3
27.4
0.6
67.6
5.1
7.3
0.8
12.3
0.2
25.6
4.9
7.6
0.8
14.6
0.2
28.2
5.1
8.2
1.0
17.1
0.2
31.5
5.1
8.7
1.0
19.2
0.2
34.2
5.2
9.2
1.0
21.3
0.2
36.9
5.3
9.6
1.0
23.4
0.2
39.5
55.4
45.2
41.2
26.2
2.0
170.0
58.6
51.4
46.0
32.7
2.5
191.2
61.8
57.6
51.0
38.4
2.9
211.8
65.3
62.6
55.3
43.2
3.5
230.0
68.3
66.5
59.9
47.9
4.4
247.0
72.0
70.2
64.2
52.2
4.5
263.1
88.2
1.0
0.2
0.8
90.2
98.2
1.1
0.2
0.9
100.4
108.1
1.3
0.2
0.9
110.5
116.2
1.4
0.1
1.0
118.7
123.9
1.5
0.0
1.0
126.5
132.8
1.6
0.0
1.1
135.4
159.0
72.6
45.3
54.4
2.9
334.3
128.0
462.2
172.0
80.7
50.4
66.3
3.4
372.6
139.8
512.5
185.5
89.1
55.7
77.1
3.8
411.2
151.8
563.0
197.5
95.9
60.0
86.4
4.3
444.2
164.2
608.4
208.5
101.3
64.4
95.4
5.2
474.8
177.0
651.8
221.2
106.5
68.5
104.1
5.3
505.7
189.0
694.7
10.4
9.2
8.9
8.6
8.4
8.1
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total
Total Energy Consumption
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total
34.7
77.2
27.5
32.4
182.4
39.6
89.8
28.8
38.5
206.1
45.2
102.0
31.4
41.1
228.8
51.0
111.7
34.5
44.8
250.6
54.5
122.3
37.7
49.4
272.4
58.2
133.7
39.4
53.6
293.1
169.4
107.4
122.5
27.5
35.5
462.2
181.1
120.3
140.2
28.8
42.0
512.5
194.4
134.4
157.8
31.4
45.0
563.0
206.1
146.9
171.7
34.5
49.3
608.4
216.9
155.8
186.7
37.7
54.7
651.8
229.3
164.7
202.2
39.4
59.0
694.7
a/ Electricity losses incurred in the transmission and distribution of electric power. May include some heat production.
b/ Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.
Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007),
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008), AEO
National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2008.D031608A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Projection
0.3
1.1
0.2
2.4
-0.4
1.3
0.2
1.1
0.9
2.6
0.0
1.7
1.1
1.8
1.8
2.8
3.2
1.8
1.6
1.9
-100.0
1.2
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.7
2.6
2.4
1.7
1.6
1.6
-1.0
2.1
2.2
1.5
2.0
1.9
1.2
1.7
2.0
1.5
2.1
1.6
me heat production.
Projections
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
5.3
12.2
0.5
10.0
0.6
28.6
5.0
12.3
0.4
11.0
0.6
29.3
5.1
12.6
0.4
11.5
0.5
30.2
5.1
12.9
0.4
12.2
0.5
31.0
5.1
13.0
0.4
12.8
0.5
31.8
5.1
13.1
0.4
13.5
0.5
32.6
3.5
6.3
0.2
9.1
0.1
19.2
3.2
6.3
0.2
10.3
0.1
20.2
3.3
6.7
0.2
11.4
0.1
21.7
3.3
7.0
0.2
12.3
0.1
23.0
3.4
7.2
0.2
13.3
0.1
24.2
3.4
7.4
0.2
14.2
0.1
25.3
28.5
17.9
9.2
11.3
2.0
68.8
28.0
19.3
9.3
12.0
2.4
71.0
28.5
20.2
9.4
12.7
2.8
73.6
28.4
20.8
9.4
13.2
3.4
75.2
28.6
21.5
9.4
13.6
4.3
77.3
29.1
22.0
9.5
14.1
4.4
79.1
57.5
0.7
0.0
0.4
58.5
59.4
0.7
0.0
0.4
60.5
62.6
0.8
0.0
0.4
63.8
64.4
0.8
0.0
0.4
65.6
65.8
0.9
0.0
0.4
67.0
67.6
0.9
0.0
0.4
68.8
94.7
37.1
9.9
30.8
2.7
175.2
65.8
240.9
95.7
38.8
9.9
33.6
3.1
181.0
68.6
249.7
99.5
40.3
9.9
36.0
3.5
189.3
71.2
260.5
101.3
41.5
10.0
38.1
4.1
194.9
74.1
269.0
102.8
42.6
9.9
40.0
5.0
200.3
77.2
277.6
105.1
43.4
10.0
42.2
5.1
205.8
80.1
285.9
3.9
2.9
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total
Total Energy Consumption
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total
16.4
37.5
23.2
15.4
96.6
18.5
38.8
23.8
18.1
102.2
20.9
39.9
24.3
19.3
107.2
22.6
41.3
24.8
21.0
112.2
23.6
43.0
26.0
22.4
117.3
24.9
44.9
26.8
23.5
122.3
98.7
53.4
47.3
23.2
18.2
240.9
98.5
57.3
48.7
23.8
21.3
249.7
102.1
61.2
49.9
24.3
22.9
260.5
103.7
64.1
51.2
24.8
25.2
269.0
105.1
66.1
52.9
26.0
27.5
277.6
107.2
68.3
55.0
26.8
28.7
285.9
a/ Electricity losses incurred in the transmission and distribution of electric power. May include some heat production.
b/ Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.
Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007),
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008), AEO
National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2008.D031608A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Projection
-0.2
0.3
-1.3
1.2
-0.5
0.5
-0.1
0.7
-0.6
1.8
0.0
1.1
0.1
0.8
0.1
0.9
3.3
0.6
0.7
1.1
-100.0
0.3
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.1
1.3
2.6
0.6
0.8
0.7
-2.6
1.7
0.7
0.6
1.7
0.9
0.3
1.0
0.6
0.6
1.8
0.7
me heat production.
Projections
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
1.5
5.0
0.0
4.6
0.4
11.5
1.3
4.9
0.0
4.9
0.4
11.7
1.3
5.2
0.0
5.0
0.4
11.9
1.3
5.3
0.0
5.3
0.4
12.3
1.3
5.3
0.0
5.5
0.4
12.6
1.3
5.3
0.0
5.9
0.4
12.9
0.7
3.1
0.1
4.4
0.1
8.4
0.6
3.0
0.1
4.7
0.1
8.6
0.7
3.3
0.1
5.2
0.1
9.4
0.7
3.5
0.1
5.7
0.1
10.0
0.7
3.6
0.1
6.1
0.1
10.7
0.7
3.8
0.1
6.6
0.1
11.3
9.8
7.9
1.9
3.5
1.9
25.0
9.7
8.4
1.9
3.5
2.3
25.8
9.6
8.4
1.9
3.6
2.7
26.3
9.3
8.4
2.1
3.6
3.3
26.7
9.2
8.4
2.1
3.6
4.2
27.5
9.2
8.3
2.3
3.5
4.3
27.7
27.3
0.6
0.0
0.0
27.9
28.3
0.7
0.0
0.0
29.0
29.6
0.7
0.0
0.0
30.4
30.4
0.8
0.0
0.0
31.2
31.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
31.9
32.1
0.8
0.0
0.0
33.0
39.2
16.6
2.0
12.5
2.5
72.8
27.3
100.1
39.9
17.0
2.0
13.2
2.9
75.1
28.3
103.3
41.2
17.6
2.0
13.9
3.3
78.0
29.3
107.3
41.7
17.9
2.2
14.5
3.9
80.2
30.7
110.8
42.2
18.2
2.2
15.3
4.7
82.6
31.9
114.5
43.4
18.3
2.3
16.1
4.8
84.9
33.2
118.0
1.2
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total
Total Energy Consumption
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total
6.0
20.7
8.2
3.4
39.7
6.9
21.0
8.3
4.6
41.5
6.7
22.2
8.4
5.1
43.1
6.1
23.7
9.1
5.7
45.2
5.4
25.5
9.5
6.0
47.2
5.1
27.5
9.6
6.2
49.2
40.5
22.6
22.8
8.2
6.0
100.1
40.5
23.9
23.0
8.3
7.6
103.3
41.8
24.4
24.2
8.4
8.5
107.3
42.2
24.0
25.9
9.1
9.7
110.8
42.8
23.7
27.7
9.5
10.9
114.5
44.0
23.4
29.9
9.6
11.2
118.0
a/ Electricity losses incurred in the transmission and distribution of electric power. May include some heat production.
b/ Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.
Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007),
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008), AEO
National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2008.D031608A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Projection
-0.5
0.3
-0.7
1.0
-0.7
0.4
-0.2
0.8
-0.1
1.7
0.0
1.2
-0.2
0.2
0.6
0.1
3.4
0.4
0.7
1.1
1.3
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.6
1.0
2.7
0.6
0.8
0.7
-2.7
-0.6
1.1
0.6
2.4
0.9
0.3
0.1
1.1
0.6
2.5
0.7
me heat production.
Scaling factor for capital costs for PV and wind for 2030 (use 1.0 for EIA reference case,
YEAR 2008
INPUT PARAMETERS
2058
74%
20
0.0046
27.53
1.93
IGCC coal
2378
74%
20
0.0029
38.67
1.93
3496
74%
20
0.0044
46.12
1.93
NG steam/turbine
750
42%
20
0.0020
11.7
8.87
NG advanced CC
948
42%
20
0.0020
11.7
8.87
NG adv. CC w/CCS
1890
42%
20
0.0029
19.9
8.87
Geothermal
1711
90%
20
0.0000
164.64
0.00
Conventional hydro
2242
65%
20
0.0024
13.63
0.00
Wind onshore
1923
38%
20
0.0000
30.3
0.00
Wind offshore
3851
40%
20
0.0000
89.48
0.00
Solar thermal
5021
31%
20
0.0000
56.78
0.00
Solar PV
6038
21%
20
0.0000
11.68
0.00
YEAR 2030
INPUT PARAMETERS
1654
78%
20
0.0046
27.53
2.04
IGCC coal
1804
78%
20
0.0029
38.67
2.04
2533
78%
20
0.0044
46.12
2.04
NG steam/turbine
700
46%
20
0.0020
11.7
8.34
NG advanced CC
717
46%
20
0.0020
11.7
8.34
1340
46%
20
0.0029
19.9
8.34
NG adv. CC w/CCS
Geothermal
3942
90%
20
0.0000
164.64
0.00
Conventional hydro
1920
55%
20
0.0024
13.63
0.00
Wind onshore
1615
46%
20
0.0000
30.3
0.00
Wind offshore
2859
40%
20
0.0000
89.48
0.00
Solar thermal
3082
31%
20
0.0000
56.78
0.00
Solar PV
3823
21%
20
0.0000
11.68
0.00
IGCC = integrated gasification combined cycle; CCS = carbon capture and sequestration; CC = combined cycle
Note: in all cases, data for NG steam/turbine are my assumptions.
Capital costs in 2008 and 2030 are from Table 8.13 of the EIA's Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2
"total overnight costs," and include project contingency, technological optimism factors, and learning factors.
the given year. In year-2007 dollars. The scaling factor is used to convert the reference case to the "falling
(2009b) Table 8.13, this ratio is 0.7076 for wind and solar in 2030.
Capacity factors for renewables are from Table 13.2 of the EIA's Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 20
for the year 2012 (which we use for 2008) and the year 2030. Capacity factor for coal and natural gas for 20
average capacity factors for coal and NG in 2007, as reported in Table A6 of the EIA's Electric Power Annual 2
coal and natural gas for 2030 assumed to be 5% (coal) or 10% (NG) higher than in 2007, because the EIA (20
factor is increasing over time.
Lifetime based on this statement in EIA's NEMS documentation: "Technologies are compared on the basis of
incurred over a 20- year period" (EIA, 2009c, p. 5).
Variable O&M and fixed O&M are from Table 8.2 of the EIA's Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (
of values; we assume these are the same in 2030 and 2008. In year-2007 dol
Fuel costs for coal and natural gas used in the electricity sector are from Table 3 of EIA's Annual Energy Outloo
Combustion efficiency is calculated from heat rates shown in Table 8.2 of the EIA's Assumptions to the Annual
Table shows the rate in 2008 and the rate for the "nth-of-a-kind plant," which we assume applies to the year 2
EIA states that "heat rates for fossil-fueled technologies are assumed to decline linearly through 2025" [EIA
BTUs are based on higher heating values, which is the EIA's usual conventio
Discount rate estimate is based on the EIA's estimate of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). In Figu
electricity module of the National Enegy Modeling System (NEMS), the estimated WACC is shown to be about
(EIA, 2009c).
0.380
0.450
0.450
Debt fraction
0.158
0.100
0.059
0.065
10.3%
7.3%
Calculated WACC
2008
2030
2008
2030
2008
2030
6.2
6.0
49%
46%
2000
2311
11.5
11.0
8%
5%
319
254
9.3
9.0
13%
14%
520
722
12.0
15.1
1%
1%
46
50
Nuclear
5.0
5.5
20%
18%
799
890
Hydro
5.0
5.3
10%
16%
394
798
Weighted average
6.7
6.6
4078
5025
6.5
6.9
Coal
Natural gas steam
Natural gas CC
Oil
1.0 for EIA reference case, 0.7076 for EIA "Falling costs case")
CALCULATED RESULTS
Combustio Amortized
n
initial cost
efficiency
($/kWh)
Periodic
costs
($/kWh)
Total cost
($/kWh)
37%
$0.038
$0.027
$0.065
39%
$0.044
$0.026
$0.070
32%
$0.065
$0.032
$0.097
34%
$0.024
$0.094
$0.119
51%
$0.031
$0.065
$0.096
40%
$0.062
$0.085
$0.146
100%
$0.026
$0.021
$0.047
100%
$0.047
$0.005
$0.052
100%
$0.069
$0.009
$0.078
100%
$0.132
$0.026
$0.157
100%
$0.222
$0.021
$0.243
100%
$0.393
$0.006
$0.400
CALCULATED RESULTS
Combustio Amortized
n
initial cost
efficiency
($/kWh)
Periodic
costs
($/kWh)
Total cost
($/kWh)
39%
$0.029
$0.026
$0.056
46%
$0.032
$0.024
$0.056
41%
$0.045
$0.028
$0.073
36%
$0.021
$0.084
$0.105
54%
$0.021
$0.058
$0.079
46%
$0.040
$0.070
$0.110
100%
$0.060
$0.021
$0.081
100%
$0.048
$0.005
$0.053
100%
$0.048
$0.008
$0.056
100%
$0.098
$0.026
$0.123
100%
$0.136
$0.021
$0.157
100%
$0.249
$0.006
$0.255
nual Energy Outlook 2009 (2009b). The EIA shows only one set
and 2008. In year-2007 dolars.
eration data
2030
839
976
Assumed fraction
0.62
from combined
0.74cycle (based on capacity reported in AEO 2008 Table 9)
Mid cost
High cost
200
280
340
1200
1600
2000
100000
125000
150000
4000
4000
4000
0.75
0.75
0.75
5000
5000
5000
70%
80%
90%
45%
38%
33%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
40%
40%
40%
1.30%
1.50%
1.80%
70
60
50
30
30
30
1.0%
1.0%
1.5%
3%
7%
10%
Discount rate
240,000
448,000
680,000
118,218
147,772
177,327
299
372
429
0.003
0.012
0.032
67%
75%
79%
2 x 500 kV
two bipoles
600 kV
bipole
800 kV
bipole
3000
4000
3000
3000
$0.99
$0.99
$1.12
$1.21
INPUTS
$420
$680
$465
$510
1,207
2,414
1,207
1,207
193
134
148
103
$331
$249
$373
$404
$140,000
$170,000
$155,000
$170,000
$1,200
$2,400
$1,350
$1,463
$1,620
$3,080
$1,815
$1,973
$447
$319
$501
$545
74%
78%
74%
74%
5.3%
1.4%
4.1%
2.8%
Cost (10^9
$)
Length (mi)
Calculated
$/MW-km
2.9
1.50
180
$1,786
10.9
1.36
300
26.1
6.36
4.3
Voltage/type
Study
500 kV AC
CAISO-A2
$258
500/230 kV AC
IAP-2010T
1,470
$103
500/230 kV AC
IAP-2020
1.80
249
$1,045
500 kV AC
Tehachapi
8.0
1.80
1,500
$93
500/230 kV AC
CPUC-2017
8.0
1.91
1,926
$77
500/230 kV AC
CPUC-2010
403.1
78.58
14,937
$8
18.5
3.40
1,200
$95
765 kV AC
SPP-CRA
23.0
7.89
4,073
$52
345/500/765 kV AC
SPP-EHV
16.0
31.00
5,725
$210
765 kV AC
MISO 06
6.3
1.41
1,885
$74
345 kV AC
CapX-1
6.3
1.51
2,007
$74
345 kV AC
CapX-2
3.1
0.46
834
$111
345 kV AC
SPP-X
48.3
0.66
1,053
$8
345/500 kV AC
MISO 03-1
48.3
1.89
2,420
$10
345/500 kV AC
MISO 03-2
5.2
2.95
1,638
$215
138/345 kV AC
ERCOT-TOS-1A
5.2
3.78
1,831
$247
345 kV AC
ERCOT-TOS-1B
11.6
4.93
2,376
$111
345 kV AC
ERCOT-TOS-2
18.0
6.38
3,036
$73
ERCOT-TOS-3
17.5
5.75
2,489
$82
ERCOT-TOS-4
4.5
1.13
625
$250
345 kV AC
SPP-2
3.0
0.32
230
$288
345 kV AC
ERCOT-C3
3.8
0.96
862
$182
345 kV AC
ERCOT-CW3
3.8
0.86
650
$216
345 kV AC
ERCOT-M2
4.6
1.52
770
$267
345 kV AC
ERCOT-P4
100 MW
100 km
1.87%
1.77%
200 km
2.11%
2.04%
100 MW
100 km
87%
80%
200 km
77%
75%
100 MW
100 km
1.63%
1.42%
200 km
1.62%
1.53%
pergrid (km)
pment (million $)
pment ($/MW-km)
centage of total
m/ at rated capacity)
80% Depth-of-discharge at which battery cycle life is determined and to which V2G cy
250 Service cost of installing new battery and removing old battery and deploying it
50 Hedonic (personal) cost of having to replace battery ($)
10% Value of old battery in non-automotive applications after end of useful life as a m
0.80 V2G cycling by utility: average fraction of a standard cycle to 80% DoD, per day
3.0% Discount rate with respect to battery costs and V2G electronics and infrastructur
90.0% Efficiency of battery charger (accounts for losses from grid to battery terminal)
94.4% Efficiency of battery charge/discharge cycle (accounts for charging and dischargi
96.0% Efficiency of inverter (accounts for losses from battery terminal to grid connectio
99.5% Efficiency of electricity distribution to final end user (accounts for losses from gri
0.11 Cost of electricity delivered to residential sector to make up for electricity lost by
150 Utility cost of extra electronics and infrastructure needed to manage V2G system
20 Lifetime of extra electronics and infrastructure (years)
CALCULATED VALUES
Don't sell
to grid
8,400
Sell to grid
8,400 Cost of replacement battery ($)
25.2
7,860
7,860 Net cost of battery replacement, including new battery cost with ins
111%
-
27% Discount rate for the period of time equal to the battery life (%/per
THESE ARE INPUTS AND RESULTS FOR THE CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE, USING THE LIFE OF THE VEH
Inputs
0.40 Lower bound on ratio of the actual value of the battery at end of vehicle life to w
0.80 Exponent on energy remaining fraction, in ratio described above
150 Service cost of removing battery and re-using it in other vehicles or non-automo
14 Life of vehicle (years)
Unused calculations (for consumer perspective, over the life of the vehicle)
No V2G
V2G
0.44
0.71
1,990
Test of parameters that determine ratio of actual value to fraction of capacity left (for unused calcu
Fraction of
capacity left
fraction of capacity
0.400
0.010
0.415
0.050
0.455
0.100
0.495
0.200
0.566
0.300
0.629
0.400
0.688
0.500
0.745
0.600
0.799
0.700
0.851
0.800
0.902
0.900
0.951
0.950
0.976
0.980
0.990
1.000
1.000
same end-of-life capacity degradation criteria as is used in regards to cycle life, for automotive use) (y
end of useful life as a motor-vehicle battery (percent of original total retail cost, excluding service cos
id to battery terminal)
ounts for losses from grid connection at V2G house to final end user)
up for electricity lost by V2G cycling ($/kWh)
to manage V2G system, per vehicle ($)
new battery cost with installation, removal of old battery, value of old battery in non-automotive marke
d at input to battery charger, per year (based on cycling normalized to 80% DoD) (kWh-sent-to-batte
structure
scharge cycling
at end of vehicle life to what the value would be if it were proportional to energy remaining in the batt
vehicles or non-automotive applications, at end of vehicle life ($)
d of vehicle life
the battery at end of vehicle life to what the automotive-use value would be if it were proportional to
potential of battery at end of vehicle life, plus present value of battery use in non-automotive applicat
on-automotive markets
(kWh-sent-to-battery-charger/year)
emaining in the battery (excluding cost of removal and re-use in other vehicles or non-automotive app
were proportional to energy remaining in the battery (excluding cost of removal and re-use in other ve
or non-automotive applications)
-0.0060% Fractional change in battery capacity per "normalized" watt-hour withdrawn, dri
80% Depth-of-discharge at which battery cycle life is determined and to which V2G c
250 Service cost of installing new battery and removing old battery and deploying i
50 Hedonic (personal) cost of having to replace battery ($)
10% Value of old battery in non-automotive applications after end of useful life as a
0.80 V2G cycling by utility: average fraction of a standard cycle to 80% DoD, per day
3.0% Discount rate with respect to battery costs and V2G electronics and infrastructu
90.0% Efficiency of battery charger (accounts for losses from grid to battery terminal)
94.4% Efficiency of battery charge/discharge cycle (accounts for charging and discharg
96.0% Efficiency of inverter (accounts for losses from battery terminal to grid connecti
99.5% Efficiency of electricity distribution to final end user (accounts for losses from g
0.11 Cost of electricity delivered to residential sector to make up for electricity lost b
150 Utility cost of extra electronics and infrastructure needed to manage V2G system
20 Lifetime of extra electronics and infrastructure (years)
CALCULATED VALUES
Don't sell to
grid
Sell to grid
8,400
3.04
-0.67%
30.0
7,860
7,860 Net cost of battery replacement, including new battery cost with ins
143%
-
58% Discount rate for the period of time equal to the battery life (%/peri
THESE ARE INPUTS AND RESULTS FOR THE CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE, USING THE LIFE OF THE VEH
Inputs
0.40 Lower bound on ratio of the actual value of the battery at end of vehicle life to
0.80 Exponent on energy remaining fraction, in ratio described above
150 Service cost of removing battery and re-using it in other vehicles or non-autom
14 Life of vehicle (years)
Unused calculations (for consumer perspective, over the life of the vehicle)
No V2G
V2G
0.53
0.76
2,445
Test of parameters that determine ratio of actual value to fraction of capacity left (for unused calcu
Fraction of
capacity left
fraction of capacity
0.400
0.010
0.415
0.050
0.455
0.100
0.495
0.200
0.566
0.300
0.629
0.400
0.688
0.500
0.745
0.600
0.799
0.700
0.851
0.800
0.902
0.900
0.951
0.950
0.976
0.980
0.990
1.000
1.000
me end-of-life capacity degradation criteria as is used in regards to cycle life, for automotive use) (yea
nd of useful life as a motor-vehicle battery (percent of original total retail cost, excluding service cost)
to battery terminal)
nts for losses from grid connection at V2G house to final end user)
battery cost with installation, removal of old battery, value of old battery in non-automotive markets
input to battery charger, per year (based on cycling normalized to 80% DoD) (kWh-sent-to-battery-c
arge cycling
end of vehicle life to what the value would be if it were proportional to energy remaining in the battery
vehicle life
battery at end of vehicle life to what the automotive-use value would be if it were proportional to ene
ential of battery at end of vehicle life, plus present value of battery use in non-automotive applications
-automotive markets
kWh-sent-to-battery-charger/year)
emaining in the battery (excluding cost of removal and re-use in other vehicles or non-automotive app
ere proportional to energy remaining in the battery (excluding cost of removal and re-use in other veh
utomotive applications at end of battery automotive-use life, net of servicing/redeployment costs (neg
r non-automotive applications)
NCA-G
NCA-G
NCA-G
NCA-G
LFP-G
20
40
100
0.37
1.5
7.4
0.24
31
76
140
350
35
1.2%
2.0%
2.1%
2.1%
0.7%
Source: Gaines, L., and P. Nelson, Lithium-Ion Batteries: Possible Materials Issues, paper presented at The 13
Convention Center, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, March 16-18 (2009).
$/kg $/kg-Li
Lithium carbonate (Li2 CO3)
Lithium hydroxide (LiOH)
6.5
34
10.0
36
LFP-G
LFP-G
LFP-G
LMO-G
LMO-G
LMO-G
20
40
100
20
40
100
20
40
0.93
1.9
4.7
0.17
0.67
1.4
3.4
0.64
2.5
5.1
82
150
376
26
63
115
289
36
106
209
1.1%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
1.1%
1.2%
1.2%
1.8%
2.4%
2.4%
es, paper presented at The 13th International Battery Materials Recycling Seminar and Exhibit, Broward County
LMO-TiO
ward County
100
12.7
523
2.4%
Rare earth oxide and Neodymium oxide production, reserves and resources wo
oxide)
Mine production
2008
Country
Reserves
Reserve Base
REO
NdO
REO
NdO
REO
United States
0.000
13
2.0
14
Australia
0.000
5.2
0.9
5.8
China
0.12
0.022
27
4.9
89
CIS
n.a.
0.000
19
3.4
21
India
0.003
0.001
1.1
0.2
1.3
Others
0.001
0.000
22
4.0
23
World total
0.124
0.022
88
15.3
150
Reserve Base
Resources
Nd % of
total REO
NdO
REO
NdO
2.1
n.r.
0.0
15%
1.0
n.r.
0.0
18%
16.0
n.r.
0.0
18%
3.8
n.r.
0.0
18%
0.2
n.r.
0.0
18%
4.1
n.r.
very
large
0.0
18%
27.3
Nd by wind turbines
0.0