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Sector/Fuel

---- BASE CASE PROJECTIONS FROM EIA --Fraction Electricit


Upstrea
electrifie y: fuel
e-H2:
m
WORLD -- TW
U. S. -- TW
d
ratio
fuel ratio factors-e
2010

Residential
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Commercial
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Industrial
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Transportation
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Total
Total all end use sectors
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Delivered Energy
Electricity-Related Losses /
Total
Electric Power /b
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal

2030

2010

2030

0.34
0.69
0.11
0.61
0.02
1.77

0.37
0.84
0.11
0.92
0.02
2.26

0.04
0.16
0.00
0.16
0.01
0.38

0.04
0.18
0.00
0.20
0.01
0.43

0.95
0.95
1.00
1.00
0.50

0.82
0.82
0.82
1.00
0.82

1.43
1.43
1.43
1.00
1.43

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

0.16
0.25
0.03
0.49
0.01
0.94

0.18
0.32
0.03
0.78
0.01
1.32

0.02
0.10
0.00
0.16
0.00
0.28

0.02
0.13
0.00
0.22
0.00
0.38

0.90
0.90
0.90
1.00
0.90

0.82
0.82
0.82
1.00
0.82

1.43
1.43
1.43
1.00
1.43

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

1.96
1.72
1.54
1.09
0.08
6.40

2.41
2.35
2.15
1.75
0.15
8.80

0.32
0.28
0.06
0.12
0.08
0.86

0.31
0.28
0.08
0.12
0.14
0.92

0.60
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.90

0.82
0.82
0.82
1.00
0.82

1.43
1.43
1.43
1.00
1.43

0.72
0.82
0.73
0.93
1.00

3.29
0.04
0.01
0.03
3.36

4.44
0.05
0.04
4.53

0.95
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.97

1.07
0.03
0.00
0.00
1.10

0.73
0.90
0.90
1.00

0.19
0.82
0.82
1.00

0.64
1.43
1.43
1.00

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

12.47

16.92

2.50

2.83

2010
5.75

2030
7.40

2010
1.34

2030
1.45

2.70

3.57

0.57

0.61

1.68
2.22
0.11
12.47
4.68
17.14

2.29
3.48
0.18
16.92
6.32
23.24

0.07
0.44
0.09
2.50
0.95
3.45

0.08
0.54
0.16
2.83
1.11
3.94

0.31
1.32
3.00

0.27
1.95
4.47

0.02
0.23
0.70

0.02
0.17
0.92

= user inputs
= key results
EHCM = electricity and hydrogen conservation
Upstream factor = ratio of energy use in WWS

Nuclear
Renewables
Total
Total Energy Consumption
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total

0.96
1.29
6.89

1.32
1.79
9.80

0.28
0.15
1.39

6.06
4.02
4.69
0.96
1.40
17.14

7.67
5.51
6.77
1.32
1.97
23.24

1.36
0.80
0.77
0.28
0.25
3.45

0.32
0.21
1.64 Energy share percentages -- World
2010
2030
1.47
35%
33%
0.78
23%
24%
1.00
27%
29%
0.32
6%
6%
0.37
8%
8%
3.94
100%
100%

a/ Electricity losses incurred in the transmission and distribution of electric power. May include some heat production.
b/ Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.
Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007),
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008), AEO
National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2008.D031608A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Projection

Upstrea
m
factorsH2

Required
after
EHCM

TW year 2030
World

U.S.

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

0.90
0.85
0.90
0.90
0.90

0.29
0.61
0.08
0.83
0.02
1.83

0.03
0.13
0.18
0.01
0.35

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

0.95
0.90
0.95
1.00
0.95

0.15
0.26
0.03
0.78
0.01
1.22

0.02
0.10
0.00
0.22
0.00
0.35

0.72
0.82
0.73
0.93
1.00

0.95
0.95
0.95
1.00
0.95

1.76
1.95
1.59
1.62
0.13
7.05

0.22
0.23
0.06
0.11
0.12
0.74

1.18
1.00
1.00
1.00

0.85
0.85
0.85
0.95

1.30
0.04
0.03
1.37

0.31
0.02
0.33

11.47

1.78

and hydrogen conservation measures


atio of energy use in WWS world to ratio of energy use in base-case fossil-fuel world

e heat production.

2005 (June-October 2007), web site


ngton, DC, June 2008), AEO2008
nd World Energy Projection System (2008).

Value
2030
0.80
0.97
0.80
0.70
1.12
1.32
1.10
0.15
5.30
2.70
0.28
0.18
0.27
0.07

End use factor


Efficiency of fossil-fuel heating (BTUs-work/BTUs-input-energy)
Efficiency of electric resistance heating (BTUs-work/BTUs-input-energy)
Efficiency of hydrogen heating (BTUs-work/BTUs-input-energy)
Efficiency of electrolytic hydrogen production on site (BTUs-H2/BTUs-electricity)
Multiplier to account for electricity requirements of H2 compression for
transportation (10,000 psi) (BTUs-electricity+H2/BTU-H2)
Multiplier for electricity requirements of H2 liquefaction for transportation, mainly air
transport (include boil-off losses) (BTUs-electricity+H2/BTU-H2)
Work/energy ratio of LH2 combustion in jet engines relative to ratio for petroleum
fuel
Of total liquid fuel use in transportation, the fraction that is replaced with LH2 rather
than compressed H2, on an energy basis.
Ratio of mi/BTU-electric (outlet) for EVs to mi/BTU-gasoline ICEVs
Ratio of mi/BTU for HFCVs to mi/BTU ICEVs
Petroleum energy in oil refining as a fraction of total petroleum use in industrial sector
NG energy in oil refining as a fraction of total NG use in industrial sector
Coal energy in oil refining as a fraction of total coal use in industrial sector
Electricity in oil refining as a fraction of total electricity use in industrial sector

Source
LEM documentation (Delucchi, 2003)
LEM documentation (Delucchi, 2003)
Assume hydrogen same as fossil fuel
AVCEM, LEM Documentation (Delucchi, 2003,2005)
AVCEM (Delucchi, 2005)

AVCEM (Delucchi, 2005)


LH2 in vehicles is more efficient than gasoline; assume minor
improvement in jet engines
Slightly greater than jet fuel shsare in U. S. in 2006 (see
"Transportation Energy" tab)
AVCEM (Delucchi, 2005)
AVCEM (Delucchi, 2005)
strial sector

World transport fuel use, 2030


MTOE

% share

2174

73%

Aviation

352

12%

Marine

216

7%

Other

236

8%

Road

2978
Source: IEA (2008) WEO data p. 464, 508
Transport fuel use in U. S., 2006
Trillion BTU

% share

17,216

61%

33

0%

Jet fuel

3,379

12%

Diesel

6,414

23%

27

0%

Residual fuel

906

3%

Lubricants

147

1%

Motor gas
Aviation gas

LPG

Total

28,122

Source: EIA (2008), AER table 5.14c

Diesel for transport in U. S., 2006


million gal

% share

Railroad

3,552

7%

Vessel

1,903

4%

39,118

83%

328

1%

2,479

5%

On-highway
Military
Off-highway
Total

47,380

Source: EIA (2008), AER table 5.15

= key user inputs

Transport fuel use in U. S., 2006


% share fraction electrifiable
On road gasoline, LPG

61%

95%

On-road diesel

19%

70%

Off-road diesel

1%

50%

Military

0%

0%

Trains

2%

80%

Air planes

12%

0%

Ships

4%

0%

Lubricants

1%

0%

100%

73%

Total

Source: Calculated from tables with other EIA AER data

key user inputs

Table 2.5 Household Energy Consumption and Expenditures by End Use and Energy Source, Sele
Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2007 (2008).
Air

Year

Natural
Gas

Space Heating 1
ElecFuel
tricity 5
Oil 6

Conditioning 2
LPG 7

Electricity 5

1978

4.26

0.4

2.05

0.23

0.32

1979

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

1980

3.41

0.27

1.3

0.23

0.36

1981

3.69

0.26

1.06

0.21

0.34

1982

3.14

0.25

1.04

0.19

0.31

1984

3.51

0.25

1.11

0.21

0.32

1987

3.38

0.28

1.05

0.22

0.44

1990

3.37

0.3

0.93

0.19

0.48

1993

3.67

0.41

0.95

0.3

0.46

1997

3.61

0.4

0.91

0.26

0.42

2001

3.32

0.39

0.62

0.28

0.62

Electrifiable, end use

0.95

1.00

0.95

0.95

1.00

NG

Fuel oil

0.95

0.96

1978

11.49

3.53

8.06

1.05

4.12

1979

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

1980

13.22

3.78

10.48

1.78

5.84

1981

16.62

3.93

9.44

1.78

6.23

1982

17.74

4.21

8.8

1.69

6.23

1984

20.66

4.62

8.51

7.06

1987

18.05

5.53

6.25

1.85

9.77

1990

18.59

6.16

7.42

2.01

11.23

1993

21.95

8.66

6.24

2.81

11.31

1997

24.11

8.56

6.57

2.79

10.2

2001

31.84

8.98

5.66

4.04

15.94

Electrifiable, by fuel

Wood used for space heating is included in "Total Wood."


2
A small amount of natural gas used for air conditioning is included in "Total Natural Gas."
3
Includes refrigerators.
4
A small amount of distillate fuel oil and kerosene used for appliances is included in "Fuel Oil" under
1

"Total."
5
Retail electricity. One kilowatthour=3,412 Btu.
6
Distillate fuel oil and kerosene.
Liquefied petroleum gases.

= key user inputs


= key results

d Use and Energy Source, Selected Years, 1978-2001

s."

uel Oil" under

Natural
Gas

Water Heating
ElecFuel
tricity 5
Oil 6

Natural
Gas

LPG 7

Appliances 3,4
Electricity 5

LPG 7

Consumption (quadrillion Btu)


1.04

0.29

0.14

0.06

0.28

1.45

0.03

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

1.15

0.3

0.22

0.07

0.36

1.54

0.05

1.13

0.3

0.22

0.06

0.43

1.52

0.05

1.15

0.28

0.15

0.06

0.43

1.5

0.05

1.1

0.32

0.15

0.06

0.35

1.59

0.04

1.1

0.31

0.17

0.06

0.34

1.72

0.04

1.16

0.34

0.11

0.06

0.33

1.91

0.03

1.31

0.34

0.12

0.05

0.29

2.08

0.03

1.29

0.39

0.16

0.08

0.37

2.33

0.02

1.15

0.36

0.13

0.05

0.37

2.52

0.05

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

0.80

1.00

0.80

Expenditures (billion nominal dollars 9)


2.88

3.14

0.56

0.36

0.93

19.1

0.25

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

4.51

4.45

1.76

0.57

1.91

26.74

0.44

5.13

4.94

1.94

0.51

2.17

29.7

0.52

6.51

1.28

0.54

2.58

31.29

0.52

6.63

6.44

1.09

0.58

2.31

36.36

0.54

6.02

6.45

0.94

0.5

2.02

39.83

0.46

6.59

7.21

0.83

0.65

2.03

46.95

0.48

8.08

7.58

0.74

0.58

1.98

53.52

0.42

8.84

8.99

1.04

0.89

2.86

60.57

0.36

11.31

8.47

1.15

0.69

3.83

66.94

0.86

Wood used for both space heating and ambience.


9
See "Nominal Dollars" in Glossary.
NA=Not available.
8

Notes:

Data are estimates.

For years not shown, there are no data availa

equal sum of components due to independent rounding.


Web Page: For related information, see http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs.

Sources: 1978 and 1979_Energy Information Administration (EIA), Form EIA-8


Consumption Survey." 1980 forward_EIA, Form EIA-457, "Residential Energy

Natural
Gas 2

Electricity 5

Total
Fuel
Oil 4,6

LPG 7

Wood 8

5.58

2.47

2.19

0.33

NA

5.31

2.42

1.71

0.31

NA

4.97

2.48

1.52

0.35

0.85

5.27

2.42

1.28

0.31

0.87

4.74

2.35

1.2

0.29

0.97

4.98

2.48

1.26

0.31

0.98

4.83

2.76

1.22

0.32

0.85

4.86

3.03

1.04

0.28

0.58

5.27

3.28

1.07

0.38

0.55

5.28

3.54

1.07

0.36

0.43

4.84

3.89

0.75

0.38

0.37

15.3

29.89

8.62

1.66

NA

17.84

32.56

10.73

2.06

NA

19.77

40.81

12.24

2.8

NA

24.03

44.8

11.29

2.81

NA

26.96

46.74

10.07

2.75

NA

29.78

54.48

9.6

3.12

NA

26.15

61.58

7.21

2.81

NA

27.26

71.54

8.25

3.14

NA

32.04

81.08

6.98

3.81

NA

35.81

88.33

7.61

4.04

NA

46.98

100.34

6.83

5.6

NA

bience.

ars not shown, there are no data available.

Totals may not

nt rounding.
p://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs.

mation Administration (EIA), Form EIA-84, "Residential Energy


IA, Form EIA-457, "Residential Energy Consumption Survey."

Table 2.3 Manufacturing Energy Consumption for Heat, Power, and Electricity Generation by End U
Net Electricity 1
End-Use Category
Indirect End Use (Boiler Fuel)
Conventional Boiler Use
CHP 6 and/or Cogeneration Process
Direct End Use
All Process Uses
Process Heating
Process Cooling and Refrigeration
Machine Drive
Electrochemical Processes
Other Process Uses
All Non-Process Uses
Facility Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning
Facility Lighting
Other Facility Support
Onsite Transportation
Conventional Electricity Generation
Other Non-Process Use

End Use Not Reported


Total
Indirect End Use (Boiler Fuel)
Conventional Boiler Use
CHP 6 and/or Cogeneration Process
Direct End Use
All Process Uses
Process Heating
Process Cooling and Refrigeration
Machine Drive
Electrochemical Processes
Other Process Uses
All Non-Process Uses
Facility Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning
Facility Lighting
Other Facility Support
Onsite Transportation
Conventional Electricity Generation

Residual Distillate LPG 2 and


Fuel Oil Fuel Oil
NGL 3

Million kWhs
3,540
2,496
1,043

20
12
8

Million bbl
6
4
2

2
2
(s)

650,100
100,541
56,723
417,998
71,045
3,793
150,530
76,840
57,460
14,087
1,212

931

10
9
(s)
(s)

(s)
1
1

(s)

(s)
(s)

7
4
(s)
3

(s)
9
1

(s)
6
Q
Q

16
15
(s)
1

(s)
6
1

(s)
5
(s)
(s)

28,087

832,257

33

24

12
9
4

127
76
51

2,218
343
194
1,426
242
13
514
262
196
48
4

26
Trillion Btu
35
8
25
8
10
0

58
0
2
0
0

24
2
16
0
1

60
0
4
0
0

3
0
0
0
1

5
0
1
35
0

5
0
0
18
0

Other Non-Process Use


End Use Not Reported
Total

96

12

2,840

191

131

101

"Net Electricity" is the sum of purchases, transfers in, and onsite generation from noncombustibl Excludes steam and hot w
e
renewable
energy sources, minus quantities sold and transferred out; it excludes onsite generatio
combustible fuels.
2
Liquefied petroleum gases.
_ _ = Not applicable. (s)=E
than 50 percent.
3
Natural gas liquids.
Notes:
electricity generation, regar
quantities of energy that we
establishment, plus those t
energy, or were extracted fr
basis of reasonable approx
independent rounding, the
withheld because the relati
4
Excludes coal coke and breeze.
Web Page: For related info
5
Total of listed energy sources. Excludes inputs of unallocated energy sources (6,006 trillion Btu). w.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs.
Source: Energy Informatio
Survey."
6
Combined-heat-and-power plants.
1

ty Generation by End Use, 2002


Coal 4
Million Ton
Billion CF
s
2,105
35
1,271
11
834
23

Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2007 (2008).

Natural Gas

Total 5

2,878
2,670
44
106

58
500
406

29
2
54
10

17
17
(s)
(s)

(s)
1
(s)

(s)

1
0

157

(s)

5,641

53

2,162
1,306
857

776
255
521

2,742
45
109
0
60

368
0
5
0
7

417
0
30
2
55

5
0
0
0
14

Trillion Btu

Fraction
3,120 electrifiable
1,679
0.75
1,443
0.50

5,722
3,595
241
1,562
242
81
1,124
697
196
79
59
70

0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00

Weighted average electrifiable fraction


Liquids Natural gas
Coal
59%
61%
56%

10

13

1.00

162

299

1.00

5795

1181

10,268

Excludes steam and hot water.

_ _ = Not applicable. (s)=Estimate less than 0.5.


than 50 percent.
Notes: Data are estimates for the total consu
electricity generation, regardless of where the ene
quantities of energy that were originally produced
establishment, plus those that were produced ons
energy, or were extracted from captive (onsite) mi
basis of reasonable approximations by responden
independent rounding, the presence of estimates
withheld because the relative standard error is gre
Web Page: For related information, see http://ww
w.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs.
Source: Energy Information Administration, Form
Survey."

able fraction

Report: An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the Am
SR/OIAF/2009-03
Scenario:

stimulus d041409a

Table 6. Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption


Refining Consumption 6/
Liquefied Petroleum Gases Heat and Power
Distillate Fuel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Petroleum Coke
Still Gas
Miscellaneous Petroleum 2/
Petroleum Subtotal
Natural Gas Heat and Power
Natural-Gas-to-Liquids Heat and Power
Natural Gas Subtotal
Other Industrial Coal
Coal-to-Liquids Heat and Power
Coal Subtotal
Biofuels Heat and Coproducts
Purchased Electricity
Delivered Energy
Electricity Related Losses
Total

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


0.01
0.00
0.01
0.57
1.69
0.04
2.32
1.10
0.00
1.10
0.06
0.00
0.06
0.30
0.15
3.94
0.32
4.25

0.01
0.00
0.01
0.55
1.68
0.02
2.27
1.13
0.00
1.13
0.06
0.00
0.06
0.40
0.16
4.03
0.35
4.38

0.01
0.00
0.01
0.58
1.70
0.04
2.34
1.27
0.00
1.27
0.06
0.00
0.06
0.87
0.16
4.71
0.35
5.06

0.01
0.00
0.01
0.58
1.70
0.04
2.34
1.34
0.00
1.34
0.06
0.00
0.06
0.66
0.17
4.57
0.38
4.95

0.06
0.00
0.01
0.54
1.81
0.03
2.44
0.97
0.00
0.97
0.06
0.00
0.06
0.76
0.18
4.41
0.39
4.81

Refining consumption as a percent of total industrial sector consumption


Petroleum Coke
Still Gas
Petroleum Subtotal
Natural Gas Subtotal
Coal Subtotal
Purchased Electricity
Delivered Energy

61%
100%
23%
14%
3%
4%
16%

61%
100%
23%
14%
3%
5%
16%

70%
100%
25%
16%
3%
5%
19%

74%
100%
27%
17%
4%
6%
20%

73%
100%
29%
13%
4%
6%
19%

0.18
2.16
0.36
1.26
0.24
1.42
0.93
1.26
1.69

0.19
2.16
0.36
1.28
0.25
1.30
0.91
1.19
1.68

0.17
2.07
0.35
1.20
0.22
1.11
0.83
1.00
1.70

0.33
1.63
0.35
1.17
0.19
1.05
0.78
0.91
1.70

0.21
1.65
0.34
1.15
0.17
1.05
0.75
0.87
1.81

Total Industrial Sector Consumption


Liquefied Petroleum Gases Heat and Power
Liquefied Petroleum Gases Feedstocks
Motor Gasoline
Distillate Fuel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Petrochemical Feedstocks
Petroleum Coke
Asphalt and Road Oil
Still Gas

Miscellaneous Petroleum 2/
Petroleum Subtotal
Natural Gas Heat and Power
Natural-Gas-to-Liquids Heat and Power
Natural Gas Feedstocks
Lease and Plant Fuel 3/
Natural Gas Subtotal
Metallurgical Coal and Coke 4/
Other Industrial Coal
Coal-to-Liquids Heat and Power
Coal Subtotal
Biofuels Heat and Coproducts
Renewables 5/
Purchased Electricity
Delivered Energy
Electricity Related Losses
Total

0.63
10.13
6.10
0.00
0.58
1.16
7.83
0.66
1.25
0.00
1.92
0.30
1.70
3.45
25.33
7.48
32.81

0.65
9.96
6.27
0.00
0.55
1.20
8.02
0.62
1.21
0.00
1.83
0.40
1.64
3.43
25.29
7.48
32.77

0.60
9.24
6.27
0.00
0.57
1.32
8.15
0.64
1.19
0.00
1.84
0.87
1.66
3.32
25.09
7.11
32.20

0.59
8.71
6.04
0.00
0.47
1.31
7.82
0.46
1.00
0.00
1.45
0.66
1.56
3.12
23.33
6.77
30.10

0.34
8.34
5.69
0.00
0.47
1.28
7.44
0.52
1.00
0.00
1.52
0.76
1.57
3.16
22.79
6.89
29.68

1/ Includes energy for combined heat and power plants, except those whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electric
2/ Includes lubricants and miscellaneous petroleum products.
3/ Represents natural gas used in well, field, and lease operations, and in natural gas processing plant machinery.
4/ Includes net coal coke imports.
5/ Includes consumption of energy produced from hydroelectric, wood and wood waste, municipal waste, and other biomass
6/ Includes energy consumed by petroleum, coal to liquids, and natural gas to liquids, and biofuel refiners. Excludes hydrog
Industrial Consumption.
Btu = British thermal unit.
- - = Not applicable.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2006 and 2007 are model results an
Sources: 2006 and 2007 prices for motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil are based on: Energy Information Administration (E
DOE/EIA-0487(2007) (Washington, DC, August 2008). 2006 and 2007 petrochemical feedstock and asphalt and road oil price
Report 2006, DOE/EIA-0214(2006) (Washington, DC, October 2008). 2006 and 2007 coal prices are based on: EIA, Quarter
DOE/EIA-0121(2007/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2008) and EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System run nostimls.d
Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). 2006 and 2007 natural gas prices are base
Survey 1994 and industrial and wellhead prices from the Natural Gas Annual 2006, DOE/EIA-0131(2006) (Washington, DC, O
DOE/EIA-0130(2008/04) (Washington, DC, April 2008). 2006 refining consumption values based on: Petroleum Supply Annu
DC, September 2007). 2007 refining consumption based on: Petroleum Supply Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0340(2007)/1 (Washi
consumption values are based on: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). 20
Industry model, November 2008. Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System run stimulus.d041409a.

Provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.55
1.79
0.03
2.43
1.13
0.00
1.13
0.06
0.00
0.06
0.85
0.19
4.66
0.41
5.07

0.07
0.00
0.00
0.54
1.71
0.03
2.34
1.21
0.00
1.21
0.06
0.02
0.08
0.84
0.19
4.66
0.41
5.08

0.07
0.00
0.00
0.54
1.66
0.03
2.29
1.26
0.00
1.26
0.06
0.06
0.12
0.84
0.19
4.71
0.42
5.12

0.07
0.00
0.00
0.53
1.66
0.03
2.29
1.24
0.00
1.24
0.06
0.16
0.21
0.84
0.19
4.77
0.41
5.18

0.07
0.00
0.00
0.51
1.64
0.03
2.25
1.25
0.00
1.25
0.06
0.17
0.23
0.85
0.20
4.79
0.43
5.22

0.07
0.00
0.00
0.51
1.64
0.03
2.24
1.26
0.00
1.26
0.06
0.18
0.24
0.89
0.20
4.84
0.43
5.27

0.07
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.61
0.03
2.20
1.27
0.00
1.27
0.06
0.20
0.26
0.93
0.20
4.86
0.43
5.29

0.07
0.00
0.00
0.49
1.60
0.03
2.19
1.27
0.00
1.27
0.06
0.21
0.27
0.99
0.20
4.93
0.44
5.37

0.05
0.00
0.00
0.49
1.62
0.03
2.19
1.27
0.00
1.27
0.06
0.23
0.29
1.07
0.20
5.02
0.44
5.46

0.06
0.00
0.00
0.49
1.61
0.03
2.18
1.28
0.00
1.28
0.06
0.25
0.31
1.23
0.20
5.20
0.44
5.64

0.05
0.00
0.00
0.48
1.61
0.03
2.16
1.31
0.00
1.31
0.06
0.26
0.32
1.37
0.21
5.37
0.44
5.81

71%
100%
28%
15%
4%
6%
20%

68%
100%
27%
15%
5%
6%
20%

66%
100%
26%
16%
7%
6%
19%

65%
100%
27%
16%
12%
6%
20%

64%
100%
27%
16%
13%
6%
20%

64%
100%
27%
16%
13%
6%
20%

63%
100%
27%
16%
14%
6%
20%

63%
100%
27%
16%
15%
6%
21%

63%
100%
27%
16%
16%
6%
21%

63%
100%
27%
16%
17%
6%
21%

62%
100%
26%
17%
17%
6%
22%

0.22
1.65
0.35
1.20
0.17
1.06
0.77
1.01
1.79

0.22
1.69
0.36
1.22
0.17
1.09
0.79
1.10
1.71

0.22
1.73
0.35
1.22
0.16
1.13
0.81
1.16
1.66

0.22
1.69
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.11
0.82
1.17
1.66

0.22
1.63
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.08
0.80
1.16
1.64

0.22
1.58
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.06
0.79
1.15
1.64

0.22
1.56
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.06
0.79
1.15
1.61

0.22
1.53
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.05
0.78
1.14
1.60

0.20
1.50
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.05
0.78
1.15
1.62

0.21
1.51
0.34
1.20
0.16
1.05
0.78
1.14
1.61

0.20
1.50
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.05
0.77
1.12
1.61

sumption

0.32
8.53
5.95
0.00
0.47
1.26
7.69
0.54
1.03
0.00
1.57
0.85
1.57
3.25
23.47
7.10
30.57

0.30
8.64
6.15
0.00
0.48
1.24
7.87
0.55
1.06
0.02
1.64
0.84
1.57
3.35
23.90
7.32
31.22

0.28
8.74
6.27
0.00
0.49
1.23
7.98
0.56
1.09
0.06
1.71
0.84
1.57
3.42
24.26
7.46
31.72

0.27
8.64
6.20
0.00
0.49
1.21
7.90
0.55
1.10
0.16
1.81
0.84
1.55
3.42
24.16
7.43
31.58

0.25
8.47
6.14
0.00
0.48
1.20
7.82
0.53
1.10
0.17
1.80
0.85
1.56
3.41
23.92
7.37
31.29

0.24
8.39
6.10
0.00
0.48
1.20
7.78
0.52
1.10
0.18
1.80
0.89
1.59
3.41
23.86
7.37
31.23

0.23
8.30
6.10
0.00
0.48
1.20
7.77
0.52
1.10
0.20
1.82
0.93
1.61
3.43
23.86
7.42
31.28

to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public.


plant machinery.

al waste, and other biomass sources.


refiners. Excludes hydrogen production at refiners which is included in

d 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.
formation Administration (EIA), Petroleum Marketing Annual 2007,
nd asphalt and road oil prices are based on: EIA, State Energy Data
are based on: EIA, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2007,
eling System run nostimls.d041409a. 2006 and 2007 electricity prices:
natural gas prices are based on: EIA, Manufacturing Energy Consumption
(2006) (Washington, DC, October, 2007) and the Natural Gas Monthly,
n: Petroleum Supply Annual 2006, DOE/EIA-0340(2006)/1 (Washington,
E/EIA-0340(2007)/1 (Washington, DC, July 2008). Other 2006 and 2007
hington, DC, June 2008). 2006 and 2007 shipments: IHS Global Insight
un stimulus.d041409a.

0.23
8.24
6.09
0.00
0.47
1.21
7.77
0.51
1.10
0.21
1.83
0.99
1.63
3.46
23.93
7.46
31.39

0.23
8.23
6.06
0.00
0.46
1.22
7.75
0.51
1.10
0.23
1.84
1.07
1.65
3.47
24.00
7.46
31.46

0.24
8.24
6.07
0.00
0.46
1.23
7.77
0.50
1.10
0.25
1.85
1.23
1.68
3.48
24.24
7.48
31.72

0.24
8.17
6.10
0.00
0.46
1.24
7.80
0.50
1.10
0.26
1.86
1.37
1.70
3.48
24.39
7.45
31.84

he Economic Outlook

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


0.05
0.00
0.00
0.47
1.56
0.03
2.10
1.35
0.00
1.35
0.06
0.28
0.34
1.56
0.21
5.57
0.44
6.01

0.05
0.00
0.00
0.46
1.57
0.03
2.11
1.36
0.00
1.36
0.06
0.30
0.36
1.64
0.21
5.67
0.44
6.11

0.06
0.00
0.00
0.46
1.55
0.03
2.10
1.38
0.00
1.38
0.06
0.32
0.38
1.61
0.21
5.70
0.44
6.14

0.06
0.00
0.00
0.46
1.58
0.03
2.13
1.36
0.00
1.36
0.06
0.35
0.40
1.63
0.21
5.73
0.44
6.17

0.06
0.00
0.00
0.46
1.58
0.03
2.13
1.36
0.00
1.36
0.06
0.37
0.43
1.66
0.21
5.79
0.44
6.23

0.06
0.00
0.00
0.45
1.56
0.03
2.10
1.43
0.00
1.43
0.06
0.39
0.45
1.75
0.22
5.95
0.45
6.41

0.07
0.00
0.00
0.45
1.57
0.03
2.11
1.43
0.00
1.43
0.06
0.41
0.47
1.79
0.22
6.03
0.46
6.48

0.07
0.00
0.00
0.44
1.65
0.03
2.19
1.33
0.00
1.33
0.06
0.43
0.49
1.89
0.22
6.13
0.46
6.59

0.04
0.00
0.00
0.44
1.66
0.03
2.16
1.41
0.00
1.41
0.06
0.46
0.52
1.94
0.22
6.25
0.46
6.72

62%
100%
26%
17%
18%
6%
23%

61%
100%
26%
17%
19%
6%
23%

61%
100%
26%
17%
20%
6%
23%

61%
100%
26%
17%
21%
6%
23%

61%
100%
27%
17%
22%
6%
23%

61%
100%
27%
18%
23%
6%
24%

61%
100%
27%
18%
24%
6%
24%

60%
100%
28%
17%
26%
7%
25%

60%
100%
28%
18%
27%
7%
25%

0.20
1.49
0.34
1.19
0.16
1.04
0.76
1.10
1.56

0.20
1.48
0.34
1.18
0.16
1.03
0.76
1.09
1.57

0.22
1.46
0.34
1.19
0.15
1.02
0.75
1.09
1.55

0.21
1.45
0.35
1.20
0.15
1.01
0.76
1.10
1.58

0.22
1.41
0.35
1.21
0.15
0.99
0.75
1.11
1.58

0.22
1.37
0.35
1.22
0.15
0.96
0.74
1.12
1.56

0.22
1.34
0.35
1.22
0.15
0.93
0.74
1.12
1.57

0.21
1.30
0.35
1.22
0.15
0.91
0.72
1.11
1.65

0.18
1.26
0.35
1.23
0.15
0.88
0.72
1.12
1.66

0.24
8.07
6.15
0.00
0.45
1.28
7.88
0.49
1.10
0.28
1.87
1.56
1.73
3.47
24.59
7.40
31.98

0.23
8.04
6.19
0.00
0.45
1.34
7.98
0.48
1.11
0.30
1.89
1.64
1.76
3.49
24.79
7.38
32.17

0.23
8.01
6.24
0.00
0.45
1.36
8.05
0.48
1.11
0.32
1.91
1.61
1.79
3.50
24.88
7.37
32.24

0.22
8.03
6.23
0.00
0.45
1.39
8.07
0.47
1.11
0.35
1.92
1.63
1.82
3.50
24.97
7.33
32.30

0.22
8.00
6.23
0.00
0.44
1.40
8.07
0.45
1.11
0.37
1.92
1.66
1.85
3.48
24.98
7.26
32.24

0.22
7.90
6.27
0.00
0.43
1.42
8.12
0.43
1.10
0.39
1.93
1.75
1.88
3.46
25.03
7.20
32.23

0.21
7.84
6.23
0.00
0.42
1.42
8.08
0.42
1.10
0.41
1.93
1.79
1.90
3.43
24.97
7.12
32.09

0.21
7.84
6.09
0.00
0.41
1.42
7.93
0.40
1.10
0.43
1.93
1.89
1.92
3.40
24.91
7.05
31.96

0.21
7.76
6.12
0.00
0.40
1.44
7.96
0.39
1.09
0.46
1.93
1.94
1.94
3.37
24.89
6.96
31.86

International Energy Outlook 2008


Report #: DOE/EIA-0484(2008)
Release Date: June 2008
Next Release Date: June 2009
(full report available July 2008)
Table F1. Total World Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Sector/Fuel
2005
Residential
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Commercial
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Industrial
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Transportation
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Total
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Delivered Energy
Electricity-Related Losses /a
Total
Electric Power /b
Liquids

Projections
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

10.4
19.1
3.2
15.1
0.7
48.5

10.3
20.5
3.3
18.1
0.7
52.8

10.5
22.1
3.5
20.7
0.6
57.5

10.8
23.2
3.6
23.1
0.6
61.3

11.0
24.1
3.5
25.2
0.6
64.4

11.1
25.2
3.3
27.4
0.6
67.6

5.1
7.3
0.8
12.3
0.2
25.6

4.9
7.6
0.8
14.6
0.2
28.2

5.1
8.2
1.0
17.1
0.2
31.5

5.1
8.7
1.0
19.2
0.2
34.2

5.2
9.2
1.0
21.3
0.2
36.9

5.3
9.6
1.0
23.4
0.2
39.5

55.4
45.2
41.2
26.2
2.0
170.0

58.6
51.4
46.0
32.7
2.5
191.2

61.8
57.6
51.0
38.4
2.9
211.8

65.3
62.6
55.3
43.2
3.5
230.0

68.3
66.5
59.9
47.9
4.4
247.0

72.0
70.2
64.2
52.2
4.5
263.1

88.2
1.0
0.2
0.8
90.2

98.2
1.1
0.2
0.9
100.4

108.1
1.3
0.2
0.9
110.5

116.2
1.4
0.1
1.0
118.7

123.9
1.5
0.0
1.0
126.5

132.8
1.6
0.0
1.1
135.4

159.0
72.6
45.3
54.4
2.9
334.3
128.0
462.2

172.0
80.7
50.4
66.3
3.4
372.6
139.8
512.5

185.5
89.1
55.7
77.1
3.8
411.2
151.8
563.0

197.5
95.9
60.0
86.4
4.3
444.2
164.2
608.4

208.5
101.3
64.4
95.4
5.2
474.8
177.0
651.8

221.2
106.5
68.5
104.1
5.3
505.7
189.0
694.7

10.4

9.2

8.9

8.6

8.4

8.1

Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total
Total Energy Consumption
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total

34.7
77.2
27.5
32.4
182.4

39.6
89.8
28.8
38.5
206.1

45.2
102.0
31.4
41.1
228.8

51.0
111.7
34.5
44.8
250.6

54.5
122.3
37.7
49.4
272.4

58.2
133.7
39.4
53.6
293.1

169.4
107.4
122.5
27.5
35.5
462.2

181.1
120.3
140.2
28.8
42.0
512.5

194.4
134.4
157.8
31.4
45.0
563.0

206.1
146.9
171.7
34.5
49.3
608.4

216.9
155.8
186.7
37.7
54.7
651.8

229.3
164.7
202.2
39.4
59.0
694.7

a/ Electricity losses incurred in the transmission and distribution of electric power. May include some heat production.
b/ Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.
Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007),
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008), AEO
National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2008.D031608A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Projection

Average Annual Percent


Change, 2005-2030

0.3
1.1
0.2
2.4
-0.4
1.3
0.2
1.1
0.9
2.6
0.0
1.7
1.1
1.8
1.8
2.8
3.2
1.8
1.6
1.9
-100.0
1.2
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.7
2.6
2.4
1.7
1.6
1.6
-1.0

2.1
2.2
1.5
2.0
1.9
1.2
1.7
2.0
1.5
2.1
1.6

me heat production.

al 2005 (June-October 2007), web site


hington, DC, June 2008), AEO2008
and World Energy Projection System (2008).

International Energy Outlook 2008


Report #: DOE/EIA-0484(2008)
Release Date: June 2008
Next Release Date: June 2009
(full report available July 2008)
Table F2. Total OECD Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Sector/Fuel
2005
Residential
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Commercial
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Industrial
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Transportation
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Total
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Delivered Energy
Electricity-Related Losses /a
Total
Electric Power /b
Liquids

Projections
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

5.3
12.2
0.5
10.0
0.6
28.6

5.0
12.3
0.4
11.0
0.6
29.3

5.1
12.6
0.4
11.5
0.5
30.2

5.1
12.9
0.4
12.2
0.5
31.0

5.1
13.0
0.4
12.8
0.5
31.8

5.1
13.1
0.4
13.5
0.5
32.6

3.5
6.3
0.2
9.1
0.1
19.2

3.2
6.3
0.2
10.3
0.1
20.2

3.3
6.7
0.2
11.4
0.1
21.7

3.3
7.0
0.2
12.3
0.1
23.0

3.4
7.2
0.2
13.3
0.1
24.2

3.4
7.4
0.2
14.2
0.1
25.3

28.5
17.9
9.2
11.3
2.0
68.8

28.0
19.3
9.3
12.0
2.4
71.0

28.5
20.2
9.4
12.7
2.8
73.6

28.4
20.8
9.4
13.2
3.4
75.2

28.6
21.5
9.4
13.6
4.3
77.3

29.1
22.0
9.5
14.1
4.4
79.1

57.5
0.7
0.0
0.4
58.5

59.4
0.7
0.0
0.4
60.5

62.6
0.8
0.0
0.4
63.8

64.4
0.8
0.0
0.4
65.6

65.8
0.9
0.0
0.4
67.0

67.6
0.9
0.0
0.4
68.8

94.7
37.1
9.9
30.8
2.7
175.2
65.8
240.9

95.7
38.8
9.9
33.6
3.1
181.0
68.6
249.7

99.5
40.3
9.9
36.0
3.5
189.3
71.2
260.5

101.3
41.5
10.0
38.1
4.1
194.9
74.1
269.0

102.8
42.6
9.9
40.0
5.0
200.3
77.2
277.6

105.1
43.4
10.0
42.2
5.1
205.8
80.1
285.9

3.9

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total
Total Energy Consumption
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total

16.4
37.5
23.2
15.4
96.6

18.5
38.8
23.8
18.1
102.2

20.9
39.9
24.3
19.3
107.2

22.6
41.3
24.8
21.0
112.2

23.6
43.0
26.0
22.4
117.3

24.9
44.9
26.8
23.5
122.3

98.7
53.4
47.3
23.2
18.2
240.9

98.5
57.3
48.7
23.8
21.3
249.7

102.1
61.2
49.9
24.3
22.9
260.5

103.7
64.1
51.2
24.8
25.2
269.0

105.1
66.1
52.9
26.0
27.5
277.6

107.2
68.3
55.0
26.8
28.7
285.9

a/ Electricity losses incurred in the transmission and distribution of electric power. May include some heat production.
b/ Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.
Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007),
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008), AEO
National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2008.D031608A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Projection

Average Annual Percent


Change, 2005-2030

-0.2
0.3
-1.3
1.2
-0.5
0.5
-0.1
0.7
-0.6
1.8
0.0
1.1
0.1
0.8
0.1
0.9
3.3
0.6
0.7
1.1
-100.0
0.3
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.1
1.3
2.6
0.6
0.8
0.7
-2.6

1.7
0.7
0.6
1.7
0.9
0.3
1.0
0.6
0.6
1.8
0.7

me heat production.

al 2005 (June-October 2007), web site


hington, DC, June 2008), AEO2008
and World Energy Projection System (2008).

International Energy Outlook 2008


Report #: DOE/EIA-0484(2008)
Release Date: June 2008
Next Release Date: June 2009
(full report available July 2008)
Table F3. Delivered Energy Consumption in the United States by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2005-2030
(Quadrillion Btu)
Sector/Fuel
2005
Residential
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Commercial
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Industrial
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Transportation
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Total
All End-Use Sectors
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Delivered Energy
Electricity-Related Losses /a
Total
Electric Power /b
Liquids

Projections
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

1.5
5.0
0.0
4.6
0.4
11.5

1.3
4.9
0.0
4.9
0.4
11.7

1.3
5.2
0.0
5.0
0.4
11.9

1.3
5.3
0.0
5.3
0.4
12.3

1.3
5.3
0.0
5.5
0.4
12.6

1.3
5.3
0.0
5.9
0.4
12.9

0.7
3.1
0.1
4.4
0.1
8.4

0.6
3.0
0.1
4.7
0.1
8.6

0.7
3.3
0.1
5.2
0.1
9.4

0.7
3.5
0.1
5.7
0.1
10.0

0.7
3.6
0.1
6.1
0.1
10.7

0.7
3.8
0.1
6.6
0.1
11.3

9.8
7.9
1.9
3.5
1.9
25.0

9.7
8.4
1.9
3.5
2.3
25.8

9.6
8.4
1.9
3.6
2.7
26.3

9.3
8.4
2.1
3.6
3.3
26.7

9.2
8.4
2.1
3.6
4.2
27.5

9.2
8.3
2.3
3.5
4.3
27.7

27.3
0.6
0.0
0.0
27.9

28.3
0.7
0.0
0.0
29.0

29.6
0.7
0.0
0.0
30.4

30.4
0.8
0.0
0.0
31.2

31.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
31.9

32.1
0.8
0.0
0.0
33.0

39.2
16.6
2.0
12.5
2.5
72.8
27.3
100.1

39.9
17.0
2.0
13.2
2.9
75.1
28.3
103.3

41.2
17.6
2.0
13.9
3.3
78.0
29.3
107.3

41.7
17.9
2.2
14.5
3.9
80.2
30.7
110.8

42.2
18.2
2.2
15.3
4.7
82.6
31.9
114.5

43.4
18.3
2.3
16.1
4.8
84.9
33.2
118.0

1.2

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total
Total Energy Consumption
Liquids
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total

6.0
20.7
8.2
3.4
39.7

6.9
21.0
8.3
4.6
41.5

6.7
22.2
8.4
5.1
43.1

6.1
23.7
9.1
5.7
45.2

5.4
25.5
9.5
6.0
47.2

5.1
27.5
9.6
6.2
49.2

40.5
22.6
22.8
8.2
6.0
100.1

40.5
23.9
23.0
8.3
7.6
103.3

41.8
24.4
24.2
8.4
8.5
107.3

42.2
24.0
25.9
9.1
9.7
110.8

42.8
23.7
27.7
9.5
10.9
114.5

44.0
23.4
29.9
9.6
11.2
118.0

a/ Electricity losses incurred in the transmission and distribution of electric power. May include some heat production.
b/ Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.
Sources: 2005: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007),
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008), AEO
National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2008.D031608A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Projection

Average Annual Percent


Change, 2005-2030

-0.5
0.3
-0.7
1.0
-0.7
0.4
-0.2
0.8
-0.1
1.7
0.0
1.2
-0.2
0.2
0.6
0.1
3.4
0.4
0.7
1.1

1.3
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.6
1.0
2.7
0.6
0.8
0.7
-2.7

-0.6
1.1
0.6
2.4
0.9
0.3
0.1
1.1
0.6
2.5
0.7

me heat production.

al 2005 (June-October 2007), web site


hington, DC, June 2008), AEO2008
and World Energy Projection System (2008).

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 estimation of the cost of electricity ge


0.103
20
1

Annual interest rate for capital (EIA uses 0.103)


Lifetime (years) (EIA uses 20, but 30-40 probably is realistic)

Scaling factor for capital costs for PV and wind for 2030 (use 1.0 for EIA reference case,

YEAR 2008

INPUT PARAMETERS

Capital cost Capacity Lifetime


($/kW)
factor
(years)

Variable Fixed O&M Fuel cost


O&M
($/kW/yr ($/MMBT
($/kWh)
)
U)

New coal scrubbed

2058

74%

20

0.0046

27.53

1.93

IGCC coal

2378

74%

20

0.0029

38.67

1.93

IGCC coal w/CCS

3496

74%

20

0.0044

46.12

1.93

NG steam/turbine

750

42%

20

0.0020

11.7

8.87

NG advanced CC

948

42%

20

0.0020

11.7

8.87

NG adv. CC w/CCS

1890

42%

20

0.0029

19.9

8.87

Geothermal

1711

90%

20

0.0000

164.64

0.00

Conventional hydro

2242

65%

20

0.0024

13.63

0.00

Wind onshore

1923

38%

20

0.0000

30.3

0.00

Wind offshore

3851

40%

20

0.0000

89.48

0.00

Solar thermal

5021

31%

20

0.0000

56.78

0.00

Solar PV

6038

21%

20

0.0000

11.68

0.00

YEAR 2030

INPUT PARAMETERS

Capital cost Capacity Lifetime


($/kW)
factor
(years)

Variable Fixed O&M Fuel cost


O&M
($/kW/yr ($/MMBT
($/kWh)
)
U)

New coal scrubbed

1654

78%

20

0.0046

27.53

2.04

IGCC coal

1804

78%

20

0.0029

38.67

2.04

IGCC coal w/CCS

2533

78%

20

0.0044

46.12

2.04

NG steam/turbine

700

46%

20

0.0020

11.7

8.34

NG advanced CC

717

46%

20

0.0020

11.7

8.34

1340

46%

20

0.0029

19.9

8.34

NG adv. CC w/CCS

Geothermal

3942

90%

20

0.0000

164.64

0.00

Conventional hydro

1920

55%

20

0.0024

13.63

0.00

Wind onshore

1615

46%

20

0.0000

30.3

0.00

Wind offshore

2859

40%

20

0.0000

89.48

0.00

Solar thermal

3082

31%

20

0.0000

56.78

0.00

Solar PV

3823

21%

20

0.0000

11.68

0.00

IGCC = integrated gasification combined cycle; CCS = carbon capture and sequestration; CC = combined cycle
Note: in all cases, data for NG steam/turbine are my assumptions.

Capital costs in 2008 and 2030 are from Table 8.13 of the EIA's Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2
"total overnight costs," and include project contingency, technological optimism factors, and learning factors.
the given year. In year-2007 dollars. The scaling factor is used to convert the reference case to the "falling
(2009b) Table 8.13, this ratio is 0.7076 for wind and solar in 2030.

Capacity factors for renewables are from Table 13.2 of the EIA's Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 20
for the year 2012 (which we use for 2008) and the year 2030. Capacity factor for coal and natural gas for 20
average capacity factors for coal and NG in 2007, as reported in Table A6 of the EIA's Electric Power Annual 2
coal and natural gas for 2030 assumed to be 5% (coal) or 10% (NG) higher than in 2007, because the EIA (20
factor is increasing over time.

Lifetime based on this statement in EIA's NEMS documentation: "Technologies are compared on the basis of
incurred over a 20- year period" (EIA, 2009c, p. 5).

Variable O&M and fixed O&M are from Table 8.2 of the EIA's Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (
of values; we assume these are the same in 2030 and 2008. In year-2007 dol

Fuel costs for coal and natural gas used in the electricity sector are from Table 3 of EIA's Annual Energy Outloo

Combustion efficiency is calculated from heat rates shown in Table 8.2 of the EIA's Assumptions to the Annual
Table shows the rate in 2008 and the rate for the "nth-of-a-kind plant," which we assume applies to the year 2
EIA states that "heat rates for fossil-fueled technologies are assumed to decline linearly through 2025" [EIA
BTUs are based on higher heating values, which is the EIA's usual conventio

Discount rate estimate is based on the EIA's estimate of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). In Figu
electricity module of the National Enegy Modeling System (NEMS), the estimated WACC is shown to be about
(EIA, 2009c).

Calculations of weighted average cost of capital (WACC)

EIA (2009c) Fthenakis et al. (2009)


0.380

0.380

Corporate tax rate (0.38 in EIA,

0.450

0.450

Debt fraction

0.158

0.100

Equity interest rate

0.059

0.065

Debt interest rate

10.3%

7.3%

Calculated WACC

Comparison of our weighted average cost with EIA NEMS in AEO


Average cost (cents/ Generation share

AEO 2008 generation data

2008

2030

2008

2030

2008

2030

6.2

6.0

49%

46%

2000

2311

11.5

11.0

8%

5%

319

254

9.3

9.0

13%

14%

520

722

12.0

15.1

1%

1%

46

50

Nuclear

5.0

5.5

20%

18%

799

890

Hydro

5.0

5.3

10%

16%

394

798

Weighted average

6.7

6.6

4078

5025

EIA AEO 2008:

6.5

6.9

Coal
Natural gas steam
Natural gas CC
Oil

st of electricity generation for various technologies

1.0 for EIA reference case, 0.7076 for EIA "Falling costs case")

CALCULATED RESULTS
Combustio Amortized
n
initial cost
efficiency
($/kWh)

Periodic
costs
($/kWh)

Total cost
($/kWh)

37%

$0.038

$0.027

$0.065

39%

$0.044

$0.026

$0.070

32%

$0.065

$0.032

$0.097

34%

$0.024

$0.094

$0.119

51%

$0.031

$0.065

$0.096

40%

$0.062

$0.085

$0.146

100%

$0.026

$0.021

$0.047

100%

$0.047

$0.005

$0.052

100%

$0.069

$0.009

$0.078

100%

$0.132

$0.026

$0.157

100%

$0.222

$0.021

$0.243

100%

$0.393

$0.006

$0.400

CALCULATED RESULTS
Combustio Amortized
n
initial cost
efficiency
($/kWh)

Periodic
costs
($/kWh)

Total cost
($/kWh)

39%

$0.029

$0.026

$0.056

46%

$0.032

$0.024

$0.056

41%

$0.045

$0.028

$0.073

36%

$0.021

$0.084

$0.105

54%

$0.021

$0.058

$0.079

46%

$0.040

$0.070

$0.110

100%

$0.060

$0.021

$0.081

100%

$0.048

$0.005

$0.053

100%

$0.048

$0.008

$0.056

100%

$0.098

$0.026

$0.123

100%

$0.136

$0.021

$0.157

100%

$0.249

$0.006

$0.255

ation; CC = combined cycle; PV = photovoltaic.

e Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (2009b). The capital costs are


ctors, and learning factors. Costs pertain to projects online in
erence case to the "falling costs" case; according to the EIA
wind and solar in 2030.

e Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (2009b). The EIA shows values


coal and natural gas for 2008 assumed to be equal to actual
IA's Electric Power Annual 2007 (2009d). Capacity factors for
2007, because the EIA (2009d) data indicate that the capacity
ime.

e compared on the basis of total capital and operating costs


A, 2009c, p. 5).

nual Energy Outlook 2009 (2009b). The EIA shows only one set
and 2008. In year-2007 dolars.

EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (2009a).

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (2009b). That


ssume applies to the year 2030. (Elsewhere in that report, the
inearly through 2025" [EIA, 2009b, p. 88].) We assume that
s the EIA's usual convention.

st of capital (WACC). In Figure 9 of the documentation for the


WACC is shown to be about 10.4% in 2008 and 10.2% in 2030

eration data

Natural gas data


2008

2030

839

976

Total Natural gas generation (AEO 2008, Table 8)

Assumed fraction
0.62
from combined
0.74cycle (based on capacity reported in AEO 2008 Table 9)

Calculation of transmission costs


Low cost

Mid cost

High cost

200

280

340

1200

1600

2000

100000

125000

150000

4000

4000

4000

Reference power of system (for reference cost) (MW)

0.75

0.75

0.75

Exponent on power in station equipment cost function

5000

5000

5000

Actual power capacity of transmission system (MW)

70%

80%

90%

Ratio of MW capacity of transmission system to MW capa

45%

38%

33%

Capacity factor for wind-farm output (%)

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Transmission line losses (% of power per 1000 km, at rat

40%

40%

40%

Actual average current of transmission, when power is tr

1.30%

1.50%

1.80%

Losses in converters and other equipment (% of power, a

70

60

50

Lifetime until replacement or major overhaul (years) -- li

30

30

30

Lifetime until replacement or major overhaul (years) -- a

1.0%

1.0%

1.5%

Maintenance cost (percent of $/MW capital cost, per year

3%

7%

10%

Discount rate

240,000

448,000

680,000

Cost of line and tower ($/MWts)

118,218

147,772

177,327

Cost of station equipment ($/MWts)

299

372

429

0.003

0.012

0.032

67%

75%

79%

$/MWts-km, line and tower cost


Additional transmission distance in supergrid (km)

Reference cost for station equipment (transformers, pow

Cost of transmission system, including station equipment


Calculated cost ($/kWh)
Line percent of total capital cost

Estimates from Bahrman (2006)


500 kV
bipole

2 x 500 kV
two bipoles

600 kV
bipole

800 kV
bipole

3000

4000

3000

3000

Rated power (MW)

$0.99

$0.99

$1.12

$1.21

Transmission line cost (million $/km)

INPUTS

$420

$680

$465

$510

Total station cost (million $)

1,207

2,414

1,207

1,207

Transmission distance (km)

193

134

148

103

Losses at full load (MW)


CALCULATED RESULTS

$331

$249

$373

$404

Transmission line cost ($/MW-km)

$140,000

$170,000

$155,000

$170,000

$1,200

$2,400

$1,350

$1,463

Transmission line cost (million $)

$1,620

$3,080

$1,815

$1,973

Total cost including station equipment (million $)

$447

$319

$501

$545

Total cost including station equipment ($/MW-km)

74%

78%

74%

74%

Transmission line cost as a percentage of total

5.3%

1.4%

4.1%

2.8%

Losses (% of power per 1000 km/ at rated capacity)

Station equipment cost ($/MW)

Calculating cost per MW-km from studies in Mills et al. (2009)


GW added

Cost (10^9
$)

Length (mi)

Calculated
$/MW-km

2.9

1.50

180

$1,786

10.9

1.36

300

26.1

6.36

4.3

Voltage/type

Study

500 kV AC

CAISO-A2

$258

500/230 kV AC

IAP-2010T

1,470

$103

500/230 kV AC

IAP-2020

1.80

249

$1,045

500 kV AC

Tehachapi

8.0

1.80

1,500

$93

500/230 kV AC

CPUC-2017

8.0

1.91

1,926

$77

500/230 kV AC

CPUC-2010

403.1

78.58

14,937

$8

18.5

3.40

1,200

$95

765 kV AC

SPP-CRA

23.0

7.89

4,073

$52

345/500/765 kV AC

SPP-EHV

16.0

31.00

5,725

$210

765 kV AC

MISO 06

6.3

1.41

1,885

$74

345 kV AC

CapX-1

6.3

1.51

2,007

$74

345 kV AC

CapX-2

3.1

0.46

834

$111

345 kV AC

SPP-X

48.3

0.66

1,053

$8

345/500 kV AC

MISO 03-1

48.3

1.89

2,420

$10

345/500 kV AC

MISO 03-2

765 kV AC/800 kV HVDC JCSP

5.2

2.95

1,638

$215

138/345 kV AC

ERCOT-TOS-1A

5.2

3.78

1,831

$247

345 kV AC

ERCOT-TOS-1B

11.6

4.93

2,376

$111

345 kV AC

ERCOT-TOS-2

18.0

6.38

3,036

$73

345 kV AC and HVDC

ERCOT-TOS-3

17.5

5.75

2,489

$82

345 kV AC and HVDC

ERCOT-TOS-4

4.5

1.13

625

$250

345 kV AC

SPP-2

3.0

0.32

230

$288

345 kV AC

ERCOT-C3

3.8

0.96

862

$182

345 kV AC

ERCOT-CW3

3.8

0.86

650

$216

345 kV AC

ERCOT-M2

4.6

1.52

770

$267

345 kV AC

ERCOT-P4

Calculating converter losses based on Negra et al. (2006)


Total loss, including cable loss (% of annual windfarm production)
500 MW

100 MW

100 km

1.87%

1.77%

200 km

2.11%

2.04%

Converter fraction of total loss


500 MW

100 MW

100 km

87%

80%

200 km

77%

75%

Converter loss, (% of annual windfarm production)


500 MW

100 MW

100 km

1.63%

1.42%

200 km

1.62%

1.53%

pergrid (km)

(transformers, power conditioners, converters, etc.), at reference power ($/MW)

ence cost) (MW)

ent cost function


system (MW)

system to MW capacity of connected wind farm

per 1000 km, at rated capacity)

n, when power is transmitted (fraction of current at rated capacity)

ment (% of power, average)

verhaul (years) -- lines and poles

verhaul (years) -- all other equipment

apital cost, per year)

g station equipment ($MWts-km)

pment (million $)

pment ($/MW-km)

centage of total

m/ at rated capacity)

THIS ANALYSIS IS BASED ON


INPUTS
10 Discharge capacity of the battery to 100% DoD (kWh)
400 Manufacturing cost of replacement battery ($/kWh)
2.1 Ratio of retail cost to manufacturing cost
4.5 Efficiency of vehicle on battery (mi/KWh-battery-discharge)
5,000 Annual distance on battery (miles/year)
3500 Battery cycle life, to 80% DoD (cycles)

80% Depth-of-discharge at which battery cycle life is determined and to which V2G cy

30 Maximum calendar life of battery, regardless of cycling (same end-of-life capacit

250 Service cost of installing new battery and removing old battery and deploying it
50 Hedonic (personal) cost of having to replace battery ($)

10% Value of old battery in non-automotive applications after end of useful life as a m
0.80 V2G cycling by utility: average fraction of a standard cycle to 80% DoD, per day

3.0% Discount rate with respect to battery costs and V2G electronics and infrastructur
90.0% Efficiency of battery charger (accounts for losses from grid to battery terminal)

94.4% Efficiency of battery charge/discharge cycle (accounts for charging and dischargi

96.0% Efficiency of inverter (accounts for losses from battery terminal to grid connectio

99.5% Efficiency of electricity distribution to final end user (accounts for losses from gri

0.11 Cost of electricity delivered to residential sector to make up for electricity lost by

150 Utility cost of extra electronics and infrastructure needed to manage V2G system
20 Lifetime of extra electronics and infrastructure (years)

CALCULATED VALUES
Don't sell
to grid
8,400

Sell to grid
8,400 Cost of replacement battery ($)

25.2

8.1 Lifetime of battery in vehicle use (based on calendar life or cycling t

7,860

7,860 Net cost of battery replacement, including new battery cost with ins

111%
-

27% Discount rate for the period of time equal to the battery life (%/per

2,750 Electricity diverted to V2G cycling, measured at input to battery cha

Components of the cost of V2G cycling, per kWh diverted to V2G cy

0.238 Annualized cost of present value of change in battery-replacement a


0.004 Annualized cost of extra electronic and infrastructure
0.021 Cost of replacing electricity lost in charge/discharge cycling
0.263 Total cost per kWh diverted to V2G cycling

THESE ARE INPUTS AND RESULTS FOR THE CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE, USING THE LIFE OF THE VEH

Inputs

0.40 Lower bound on ratio of the actual value of the battery at end of vehicle life to w
0.80 Exponent on energy remaining fraction, in ratio described above

150 Service cost of removing battery and re-using it in other vehicles or non-automo
14 Life of vehicle (years)
Unused calculations (for consumer perspective, over the life of the vehicle)
No V2G

V2G

0.44

0.28 Fraction of battery capacity remaining at end of vehicle life

0.71

0.61 Ratio of the actual automotive-use value of the battery at end of ve

1,990

1,387 Present value of remaining automotive-use potential of battery at e


0.02 Cost per kWh associated with unused calcs.

Test of parameters that determine ratio of actual value to fraction of capacity left (for unused calcu
Fraction of

Ratio of actual value to

capacity left

fraction of capacity

0.400

0.010

0.415

0.050

0.455

0.100

0.495

0.200

0.566

0.300

0.629

0.400

0.688

0.500

0.745

0.600

0.799

0.700

0.851

0.800

0.902

0.900

0.951

0.950

0.976

0.980

0.990

1.000

1.000

YSIS IS BASED ON AN ESTIMATE OF THE TOTAL BATTERY CYCLE LIFE

ned and to which V2G cycling is normalized (%)

same end-of-life capacity degradation criteria as is used in regards to cycle life, for automotive use) (y

attery and deploying it in non-automotive applications ($)

end of useful life as a motor-vehicle battery (percent of original total retail cost, excluding service cos

le to 80% DoD, per day (standard cycles/day)

tronics and infrastructure (%/year)

id to battery terminal)

r charging and discharging losses inside battery)

rminal to grid connection)

ounts for losses from grid connection at V2G house to final end user)
up for electricity lost by V2G cycling ($/kWh)
to manage V2G system, per vehicle ($)

calendar life or cycling to 80% DoD) (years)

new battery cost with installation, removal of old battery, value of old battery in non-automotive marke

o the battery life (%/period)

d at input to battery charger, per year (based on cycling normalized to 80% DoD) (kWh-sent-to-batte

kWh diverted to V2G cycling ($/kWh-sent-to-battery-charger)

in battery-replacement and disposal frequency, due to V2G cycling

structure

scharge cycling

ING THE LIFE OF THE VEHICLE AS THE TIME HORIZON.

at end of vehicle life to what the value would be if it were proportional to energy remaining in the batt
vehicles or non-automotive applications, at end of vehicle life ($)

d of vehicle life

the battery at end of vehicle life to what the automotive-use value would be if it were proportional to

potential of battery at end of vehicle life, plus present value of battery use in non-automotive applicat

city left (for unused calculation, for consumer perspective)

r automotive use) (years)

excluding service cost)

on-automotive markets
(kWh-sent-to-battery-charger/year)

emaining in the battery (excluding cost of removal and re-use in other vehicles or non-automotive app

were proportional to energy remaining in the battery (excluding cost of removal and re-use in other ve

-automotive applications at end of battery automotive-use life, net of servicing/redeployment costs (n

or non-automotive applications)

and re-use in other vehicles)

redeployment costs (negative value is cost, positive value is benefit)

THIS ANALYSIS IS BASED ON ESTI


INPUTS
10 Discharge capacity of the battery to 100% DoD (kWh)
400 Manufacturing cost of replacement battery ($/kWh)
2.1 Ratio of retail cost to manufacturing cost
4.5 Efficiency of vehicle on battery (mi/KWh-battery-discharge)
5,000 Annual distance on battery (miles/year)

-0.0060% Fractional change in battery capacity per "normalized" watt-hour withdrawn, dri

-0.0027% Fractional change in battery capacity per "normalized" watt-hour withdrawn, V2


20% Fractional loss of capacity that marks the end of the battery's useful life

80% Depth-of-discharge at which battery cycle life is determined and to which V2G c

30 Maximum calendar life of battery, regardless of cycling (same end-of-life capaci

250 Service cost of installing new battery and removing old battery and deploying i
50 Hedonic (personal) cost of having to replace battery ($)
10% Value of old battery in non-automotive applications after end of useful life as a

0.80 V2G cycling by utility: average fraction of a standard cycle to 80% DoD, per day

3.0% Discount rate with respect to battery costs and V2G electronics and infrastructu
90.0% Efficiency of battery charger (accounts for losses from grid to battery terminal)

94.4% Efficiency of battery charge/discharge cycle (accounts for charging and discharg

96.0% Efficiency of inverter (accounts for losses from battery terminal to grid connecti

99.5% Efficiency of electricity distribution to final end user (accounts for losses from g

0.11 Cost of electricity delivered to residential sector to make up for electricity lost b

150 Utility cost of extra electronics and infrastructure needed to manage V2G system
20 Lifetime of extra electronics and infrastructure (years)

CALCULATED VALUES
Don't sell to
grid
Sell to grid
8,400
3.04
-0.67%

8,400 Cost of replacement battery ($)


9.44 Daily energy discharge (kWh)
-1.30% Yearly fractional change of capacity

30.0

15.4 Lifetime of battery in vehicle use -- years until discharge capacity is

7,860

7,860 Net cost of battery replacement, including new battery cost with ins

143%
-

58% Discount rate for the period of time equal to the battery life (%/peri

2,750 Electricity diverted to V2G cycling, measured at input to battery cha

Components of the cost of V2G cycling, per kWh diverted to V2G cy

0.088 Annualized cost of present value of change in battery-replacement a


0.004 Annualized cost of extra electronic and infrastructure
0.021 Cost of replacing electricity lost in charge/discharge cycling
0.113 Total cost per kWh diverted to V2G cycling

THESE ARE INPUTS AND RESULTS FOR THE CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE, USING THE LIFE OF THE VEH

Inputs

0.40 Lower bound on ratio of the actual value of the battery at end of vehicle life to
0.80 Exponent on energy remaining fraction, in ratio described above

150 Service cost of removing battery and re-using it in other vehicles or non-autom
14 Life of vehicle (years)
Unused calculations (for consumer perspective, over the life of the vehicle)
No V2G

V2G

0.53

0.09 Fraction of battery capacity remaining at end of vehicle life

0.76

0.49 Ratio of the actual automotive-use value of the battery at end of ve

2,445

588 Present value of remaining automotive-use potential of battery at en


0.06 Cost per kWh associated with unused calcs.

Test of parameters that determine ratio of actual value to fraction of capacity left (for unused calcu
Fraction of

Ratio of actual value to

capacity left

fraction of capacity

0.400

0.010

0.415

0.050

0.455

0.100

0.495

0.200

0.566

0.300

0.629

0.400

0.688

0.500

0.745

0.600

0.799

0.700

0.851

0.800

0.902

0.900

0.951

0.950

0.976

0.980

0.990

1.000

1.000

BASED ON ESTIMATES OF THE LOSS OF BATTERY CAPACITY PER KWH WITHDR

-hour withdrawn, driving

-hour withdrawn, V2G cycling

y's useful life

d and to which V2G cycling is normalized (%)

me end-of-life capacity degradation criteria as is used in regards to cycle life, for automotive use) (yea

tery and deploying it in non-automotive applications ($)

nd of useful life as a motor-vehicle battery (percent of original total retail cost, excluding service cost)

to 80% DoD, per day (standard cycles/day)

nics and infrastructure (%/year)

to battery terminal)

harging and discharging losses inside battery)

minal to grid connection)

nts for losses from grid connection at V2G house to final end user)

p for electricity lost by V2G cycling ($/kWh)

o manage V2G system, per vehicle ($)

discharge capacity is degraded by 20%

battery cost with installation, removal of old battery, value of old battery in non-automotive markets

e battery life (%/period)

input to battery charger, per year (based on cycling normalized to 80% DoD) (kWh-sent-to-battery-c

h diverted to V2G cycling ($/kWh-sent-to-battery-charger)

attery-replacement and disposal frequency, due to V2G cycling

arge cycling

THE LIFE OF THE VEHICLE AS THE TIME HORIZON.

end of vehicle life to what the value would be if it were proportional to energy remaining in the battery

hicles or non-automotive applications, at end of vehicle life ($)

vehicle life

battery at end of vehicle life to what the automotive-use value would be if it were proportional to ene

ential of battery at end of vehicle life, plus present value of battery use in non-automotive applications

left (for unused calculation, for consumer perspective)

PER KWH WITHDRAWN

automotive use) (years)

xcluding service cost)

-automotive markets

kWh-sent-to-battery-charger/year)

emaining in the battery (excluding cost of removal and re-use in other vehicles or non-automotive app

ere proportional to energy remaining in the battery (excluding cost of removal and re-use in other veh

utomotive applications at end of battery automotive-use life, net of servicing/redeployment costs (neg

r non-automotive applications)

nd re-use in other vehicles)

deployment costs (negative value is cost, positive value is benefit)

Lithium percentage of batteries, and cost of lithium per kg


Battery type -->
Vehicle Range(mi) at 300 Wh/mile
Total Li in battery pack (kg)
Battery mass (kg)
Lithium percent of battery

NCA-G

NCA-G

NCA-G

NCA-G

LFP-G

20

40

100

0.37

1.5

7.4

0.24

31

76

140

350

35

1.2%

2.0%

2.1%

2.1%

0.7%

Source: Gaines, L., and P. Nelson, Lithium-Ion Batteries: Possible Materials Issues, paper presented at The 13
Convention Center, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, March 16-18 (2009).

$/kg $/kg-Li
Lithium carbonate (Li2 CO3)
Lithium hydroxide (LiOH)

6.5

34

10.0

36

LFP-G

LFP-G

LFP-G

LMO-G

LMO-G

LMO-G

LMO-G LMO-TiO LMO-TiO LMO-TiO

20

40

100

20

40

100

20

40

0.93

1.9

4.7

0.17

0.67

1.4

3.4

0.64

2.5

5.1

82

150

376

26

63

115

289

36

106

209

1.1%

1.3%

1.3%

0.7%

1.1%

1.2%

1.2%

1.8%

2.4%

2.4%

es, paper presented at The 13th International Battery Materials Recycling Seminar and Exhibit, Broward County

LMO-TiO

ward County

100
12.7
523
2.4%

Rare earth oxide and Neodymium oxide production, reserves and resources wo
oxide)
Mine production
2008

Country

Reserves

Reserve Base

REO

NdO

REO

NdO

REO

United States

0.000

13

2.0

14

Australia

0.000

5.2

0.9

5.8

China

0.12

0.022

27

4.9

89

CIS

n.a.

0.000

19

3.4

21

India

0.003

0.001

1.1

0.2

1.3

Others

0.001

0.000

22

4.0

23

World total

0.124

0.022

88

15.3

150

REO = total rare earth oxide


Nd O = neodymium oxide
Calculation of impact on supply of demand for Nd by wind turbines
0.2 Nd per MW in a wind turbine (metric tonnes)
19,000,000 MW of wind power
45 Number of years that windpower is phased in
1.167 Ratio of weight of Nd oxide to Nd (assume Nd2O3)
2.0 Assumed ratio of total resources to reserve base
98,519 Nd oxide needd per year (metric tonnes)
127 Years that reserves last, given wind power plus year 2008 production
226 Years that reserve base lasts, given wind power plus year 2008 production
452 Years that resources last, given wind power plus year 2008 production

serves and resources worldwide (million metric tones of rare earth

Reserve Base

Resources

Nd % of
total REO

NdO

REO

NdO

2.1

n.r.

0.0

15%

1.0

n.r.

0.0

18%

16.0

n.r.

0.0

18%

3.8

n.r.

0.0

18%

0.2

n.r.

0.0

18%

4.1

n.r.
very
large

0.0

18%

27.3

Nd by wind turbines

year 2008 production


plus year 2008 production

s year 2008 production

0.0

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