A Renewable Energy and Storage Base For The United States Virgin Islands, October 2014

ARenewableEnergy+StorageBase
fortheUnitedStatesVirginIslands:
PreFeasibilityReport
October2014
Confidential
DISCLAIMEROFWARRANTIESANDLIMITATIONOFLIABILITIES
ThisdocumentwaspreparedbyGridFlexServicesandIslandEnergyInnovations.Theseorganizations,
noranypersonactingonbehalfofanyofthesecompanies:
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information,apparatus,method,process,orsimilaritemdisclosedinthisdocument.
Copyright2014.IslandEnergyInnovations,LLC.AllRightsReserved.
ThereportisanIslandEnergyInnovationsdocumentthatshouldbecitedintheliteratureinthe
followingmanner:
IEIGridflexRenewableEnergy+StorageBasefortheUnitedStatesVirginIslands:PreFeasibilityReport.
2014.
Contents
ExecutiveSummary.......................................................................................................................................v
I.Introduction...............................................................................................................................................1
II.ElectricPowerDemandandSupplyintheU.S.VirginIslands..................................................................4
III.RenewableEnergyPotentialintheUSVirginIslands............................................................................10
IV.MaintainingGridStabilityandReliabilityofSupply..............................................................................28
V.EnergyStorage:UsesandAlternatives...................................................................................................35
VI.USVIPumpedStoragePotential............................................................................................................44
VII.RenewableSupplyModeling................................................................................................................46
VIII.EconomicAnalysis................................................................................................................................56
IX.EnvironmentalandOtherBenefits........................................................................................................61
X.RenewableSupplyPlacement................................................................................................................63
XI.TransitiontoaRenewableEnergy+StorageBasefortheU.S.VirginIslands.......................................65
XII.NextSteps.............................................................................................................................................68
References..................................................................................................................................................70
ii
ListofFigures
Figure1.USVIRenewableEnergyGoal.........................................................................................................1
Figure2.USVIEnergyEfficiencyGoal...........................................................................................................1
Figure3.USVIPercentageofconventionalfossilfuelgeneration,REgeneration,andEnergyEfficiency
usedtoservertheexpected,businessasusual2025fossilfueldemandacrossscenarios.........................2
Figure4.USVITypicalDailyLoadProfiles.....................................................................................................4
Figure5.VIWAPASystemAverageHeatRate.............................................................................................5
Figure6.LEACandCostofOilovertime......................................................................................................6
Figure7.St.ThomasElectricalFeeders........................................................................................................8
Figure8.St.CroixElectricalFeeders.............................................................................................................9
Figure9.PredominantWindDirectionatBovoniPoint,St.Thomas..........................................................10
Figure10.USVI70mWindSpeed...............................................................................................................11
Figure11.AreasconsideredtohaveahighpotentialforwinddevelopmentintheUSVI(NREL).............12
Figure12.Bovoni,St.ThomasPotentialWindTurbineLocations..............................................................12
Figure13.Photovisualizationofamultimegawattturbinewithanapproximately420fttipheight
(takenfrompointEinFigure12)................................................................................................................13
Figure14.BovoniWindSpeedsatpotentiallocations...............................................................................14
Figure15.PhotoSimulationofHullOffshoreWindPowerProject.CreditRenewableEnergyResearch
Laboratory...................................................................................................................................................17
Figure16.CaribbeanMajorHurricaneTracksSince1960..........................................................................19
Figure17.USVIMajorHurricaneTracks.Felton(2014).............................................................................19
Figure18.USVIGlobalHorizontalIrradiation.............................................................................................21
Figure19.HistoricandprojectedsolarPVmodulepricesbasedonobservedlearningcurve..................22
Figure20.SolarPVLCOE($/MWh)overtime............................................................................................23
Figure21.PotentialSolarPVSite(HOVENSA)............................................................................................24
Figure22.BiocroppotentialforSt.Croix....................................................................................................25
Figure23.SolarOutputFluctuations..........................................................................................................29
Figure24.WindVariabilityDemandVs.Supply..........................................................................................29
Figure25.RelativeFuelConsumptionofaWartsilaEngineatDifferentLoads.........................................31
Figure26.ElHierro,CanaryIslands,HighREPenetrationSystem.............................................................32
Figure27.JamaicaHighREPenetrationModelScenario...........................................................................33
Figure28.JamaicaInvestment,GenerationCost,andSavingsforREScenarios.......................................34
Figure29.EPRIEnergyStorageComparisonChart.....................................................................................35
Figure30.MaturityofEnergyStorageTechnologies..................................................................................36
Figure31.2011EnergyStorageCapacity(MW)intheU.S.ByTechnology...............................................36
Figure32.GridPowerControlIssuesandPHSSolutions............................................................................37
Figure33.PumpedHydroStorageDiagram...............................................................................................37
Figure34.OkinawaJapanPumpedHydroStorageFacility(Saltwater)......................................................39
Figure35.OkinawaJapanPumpedHydroStorageFacility(Saltwater)......................................................40
iii

Figure36.BearSwampPHSReservoirs.Rowe,MA....................................................................................41
Figure37.USVIEnergySourcesRoadMap...............................................................................................50
Figure38.Wind/PVDestinationSt.Thomas..........................................................................................51
Figure39.CapacityPortfolioSt.ThomasREBase....................................................................................51
Figure40.EnergysourcesSt.ThomasREBase.........................................................................................52
Figure41.WorkingEnergyinStorage.........................................................................................................52
Figure42.LoadServingShortfallsSt.Thomas.........................................................................................52
Figure43.Wind/PVDestinationSt.Croix...............................................................................................54
Figure44.CapacityPortfolioSt.CroixREBase.........................................................................................54
Figure45.EnergySourcesSt.CroixREBase.............................................................................................54
Figure46.LoadServingShortfallsSt.Croix..............................................................................................55
Figure47.PotentialOffshoreWindSitesSt.Thomas...............................................................................63
Figure48.PotentialOffshoreWindSItesSt.Croix...................................................................................64
ListofTables
Table1.ImpactofDepthandDistanceforOffshoreCosts........................................................................16
Table2.EstimatedsolarresourcefortheVirginIslands(Lat18NLong65W)kWh/m2perday.............21
iv
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
Executive Summary
IslandEnergyInnovations,LLCengagedGridflexServices,LLCtoexaminethepotentialforshiftingthe
electricpowersupplybaseoftheUnitedStatesVirginIslandsfromonedependentonfossilfuelstoone
thatreliesonrenewableenergyforthemajorityofitsneed.
AdetailedexaminationwasconductedoftheUSVIsexistingandforecastedelectricpowerdemandand
supply,alongwithananalysisoftherenewableresourceandbulkenergystoragepotential.This
evaluationwasconductedtodetermineaplausiblebalanceofenergyresourcesthatcouldachievethe
greatestreductioninfossilfuelusewhilemeetingfirmpowerneedsandmaintainingoperational
reliabilityandgridstability.Reliableandaccuratewind&solardatawereusedinconjunctionwith
hourlyWAPAloaddatafortheanalysismodel.
Theresultssuggestthatitistechnicallyandeconomicallyfeasibletoshifttheislands'electricpower
supplytoafarhigherlevelofrenewableresourcesthanpreviouslyconsidered.Furthermore,itappears
thatthiscanbeachievedwithaminimumofcurtailmenttothewindandsolarPVrenewablesources.
Keyelementsofthesupplysystemincludethefollowing:
distributedorcentralizedsolarPVplantstotaling105MWincapacity.
offshorewindoffthesoutherncoasts,incombinationwithonshorewind,totaling110MW;
baseloadrenewableintheformofbiomass(14MW)andwastetoenergy(10MW);
bulkenergystorageintheformofpumpedstoragehydropoweronSt.ThomasandSt.Croixto
providemultihourenergymanagementusing"closedloop"configurations(20MWeach);
a5MWbatteryenergystoragesystemoneachislandtoprovideshorttermpowerqualityand
regulationservice;
retentionoftheneweroftheexistingoil/multifuelunitsforfirmbackupsupply.
Theaboveportfoliosareestimatedtoreducedependencyonthefossilfuelsupplyforelectricpowerto
16%onSt.Thomas/St.Johnand8%onSt.Croix.Phrasedanotherway,itappearsfeasiblefortheUSVI
toachieveanearly90%renewableenergysupplybytheyear2020.
Whilethecapitalinvestmentrequiredforthenewsupplybasewouldbesignificant,thesavingsincost
offuelwouldmorethancompensateforthecost,andthewholesalecostofenergytotheislandwould
decreasesignificantly.Preliminaryfiguresindicateaterritorywidereductioninthecostofenergysupply
ofapproximately25%belowaprojectedcostofenergyproductionbasedontheUSVIEnergyRoad
Map,evenafteraccountingforconversionofcombustionturbinestoPropane(LPG).Thereductionin
CO2emissionswouldbedramaticaswell.
Followupstudieswillberequiredtoconfirmthedevelopmentfeasibilityforthevariouselementsofthe
renewableandstoragesupplyatthelevelsneededfortheproposedshift,refinetheeconomicand
technicalmodels,refinesiteselection;assesspotentialenvironmentalimpacts,andlaythegroundwork
fordevelopment.
INTRODUCTION
I. Introduction
TheUnitedStatesVirginIslandsarehighlydependentonexpensive,importedfueloilfortheirenergy
supply.Atthesametime,theislandsarenaturallyblessedwithavarietyofabundantrenewableenergy
resources.Infact,encouragingwindenergyresourceassessmentsfortheislandsdatebackatleast
threedecades.Endingtheirdependencyonexpensiveimportedfuelwouldnotonlyhavesignificant
economicbenefitsfortheUSVI,butwouldmakeacontributiontoreductioningreenhousegas
emissions.Climatechangeisamajorconcerntoislandterritoriesandnations,andmanyCaribbean
nationshavedevelopedplansforrenewableenergydevelopment.
Overthepastseveraldecades,someefforthasbeenmadetounderstandanddeveloplocalrenewable
resources.Windenergyassessmentsdatebacktoatleast19811,andvariousotheralternativeenergy
optionshaveappearedinstudiessince.IthasbeenestablishedthattheVirginIslandsareendowedwith
abundantrenewableresourcepotential,andsomeofthatpotentialhasbeguntobedeveloped.Several
utilityscalesolarPVprojectsareindevelopmentunderpowerpurchaseagreementswiththeVirgin
IslandsWaterandPowerAuthority(WAPA),asignificantbiomassfacilityisinlatedevelopmentstage,
andwindprojectsareundernegotiation.
Theserenewableenergyprojectsstillrepresentarelativelysmallcontributiontothetotalenergymix,
andtheemphasisinrecentutilityplanninghasbeenonimplementingenergyefficiencymeasureswhile
convertingexistingfossilfuelunitstopropane(LiquidPetroleumGas,orLPG)tobothreducecostand
reducecarbonemissions.Whileenergyefficiencyisapreferredstrategyforloweringenergycostsas
wellasgreenhousegasemissions,thecurrentplancontinuestorelyonfossilfuelsforthebulkof
deliveredelectricpower.2Therelativeslicesofsupplycurrentlyplannedareshowninthechartsbelow.
Figure1.USVIRenewableEnergyGoal
Figure2.USVIEnergyEfficiencyGoal
1
2
SouthernSolar1981
EDIN2011b;WAPA2012b
INTRODUCTION
Theabovedistributionrepresentsthe"basecase"thatappearsinNREL's"roadmap"analysisfrom
2011.3TheRoadmapsHighRenewableCasescenarioshowsonlya25%renewableenergycontribution
tothelongtermgoal.
Figure3.USVIPercentageofconventionalfossilfuelgeneration,REgeneration,andEnergyEfficiencyusedtoserverthe
expected,businessasusual2025fossilfueldemandacrossscenarios.
Developingandintegratingasignificantlevelofrenewableresourcesposesparticularchallengesfor
islandsystems.TwoofthebestestablishedtechnologieswindandsolarPVareintermittentin
nature,andwindinparticularcanbehighlyvariable.Therelativelyconstancyofthewindresourcein
theCaribbeanhelps,buttherecanbesignificantandrapiddifferencesinwindoutputfrommomentto
moment,dependingonthelocationandsizeofthewindplants.WithsolarPV,cloudsbringanelement
ofintermittencythatcancauseevenmorerapidchangesinoutput.
DuetothevariableandintermittentnatureofwindandsolarPV,mostutilitysystemshavedetermined
thattherearetechnicallimitstothelevelofrenewableenergythattheycanabsorbandmanage.This
figurerangesfrom15%to30%ofinstalledcapacity,dependingonthenature,isolation,andflexibilityof
thesystem.However,thislimitcanbeovercome.Strategiesrangefrombetterwindforecastingto
maintainingoperationalflexibilitytoincorporatingenergystorageintothesystem.Infact,somesmall
systemshavereachedanearlycompleteshifttorenewableresources.
Asthisreportwillshow,theU.S.VirginIslandsareinaverygoodpositiontoachievewhatonlyafew
smallislandsystemshaveachieved:shiftingtheirenergysupplybasefrombeingnearly100%
dependencyonfossilfueltodrawingthemajorityoftheirenergyfromrenewablesources.Theycan
achievethisby(a)takingadvantageofthenaturalcomplementaritybetweenwindandsolarPV,(b)
developingamoderateamountofbaseloadrenewableenergytocomplementthevariableresources,(c)
theuseofbulkenergystoragetoprovidemultihourenergyshifting,(d)theuseofnearlyinstantaneous
energystorageformomenttomomentandpowerqualitysupport,and(c)theretentionofthenewer
andmostefficientoftheirfossilbaseforbackupsupply.
NREL2011a
INTRODUCTION
Insummary,thesepreliminaryresultsindicatethattheUSVIhavethenecessaryresourcestodevelopa
highsustainable,highrenewableenergypenetration,largescalepowersupplysystem.Furthermore,
thedatasuggeststhatthispowersystemcanbeachievedeconomicallywithinthenextdecade.
USVIELECTRICPOWERDEMANDANDSUPPLY
II. Electric Power Demand and Supply in the U.S. Virgin Islands
ElectricpowerdemandintheU.S.VirginIslandsisexpectedtogrowveryslowlyovertheforeseeable
future.St.Thomasisexpectedtoseeanannualgrowthrateof1%forbothpeakdemandandgross
energy,withSt.Croixat0.5%.4PeakdemandonSt.Thomasiscurrentlyatanaverageof74MW,with
annualpeakof88megawatts(MW).5ThecorrespondingfiguresforSt.Croixare50and55MW,
respectively.
AmongCaribbeanislands,theUSVIhaverelativelyhighloadfactors(ratioofaveragedemandtopeak
demand),withaloadfactorof71%forSt.Thomasand73.4%forSt.Croixprojectedfortheyear20166.
Thismeansthatdemanddoesn'texhibitthepeaksandvalleyslikesystemssubjecttowidedaily
temperaturevariations.Thechartsbelowindicatetheseasonalvariation(forSt.Thomas)andthetypical
dailyvariationsforSt.ThomasandSt.Croix.
St.Thomas
St.Croix
7
Figure4.USVITypicalDailyLoadProfiles
Loadiscurrentlymetwithasupplybaseconsistingalmostentirelyofoilfiredgenerators,burning#2
dieselfueloil.Thecurrentbaseconsistsofthefollowingunits,givenbyyearofinstallation:
WAPA2013c
WAPA2013c;NREL2011b
6
WAPA2012a
7
NREL2011b
5
St.Thomas'RandolphE.HarleyGeneratingStation*
YearInstalled
1968
1972
1973
1981
1985
1993
2001
2004
2012
Unit&Type
#11SteamTurbine
#14Peaker
#13SteamTurbine
#15CombinedCycle
#7Peaker
#18CombinedCycle
#22Peaker**
#23Peaker
#25Peaker
*DoesnotincludeHeatRecoverySteamGenerators
**Tobereplacedin2014byanewLM2500gasturbine
MW
18.5
12.5
36.9
20.9
2.5
23.5
24
39.5
22
200.3
30YearDate
1998
2002
2003
2011
2015
2023
2031
2034
2042
MW
10
19.1
20.9
21.9
22.5
22.5
116.9
30YearDate
1997
2000
2011
2018
2024
2024
St.Croix'EstateRichmondGeneratingStation
YearInstalled
1967
1970
1981
1988
1994
1994
Unit&Type
#10SteamTurbine
#11SteamTurbine
#16CombinedCycle
#17CombinedCycle
#19Peaker
#20SteamTurbine
Wewerenotabletofindany
publishedtargetretirementdates
fortheseunits.
Averageheatrates(theamountof
fuelusedfortherequiredelectric
output)fortheexistingbasearevery
highasshowninFigure5(from
WAPAtestimonytothelegislaturein
2013.8)
A1994documentcitesunitspecific
heatratesthatindicatethetwo
oldestSt.Thomassteamturbines
operatedatheatratesofabout
14,000to16,000Btu/kWh,andthe
twooldestSt.Croixsteamturbines
Figure5.VIWAPASystemAverageHeatRate
Hodge2013a
at13,000to15,000Btu/kWh.Combustionturbineheatratesweresignificantlyworseashighas
22,500.9
Accordingtothe2013Senatetestimony,WAPAattributeshighheatratestoitsloadcharacteristics.A
specificcontributingfactorcitedinNREL's2011roadmapanalysisistheuseofthermalenergyforthe
MED(MultiEffectDistillation)desalinationplants.Thesehaverecentlybeenreplacedbymoreefficient
reverseosmosissystems,whichshouldimprovetheheatrates.
CurrentSupplyCost
TheUSVIhasthehighest,oramongthehighest,costofelectricityintheCaribbeanregion.Accordingto
theOctober2014rateschedule10,thefuelcomponentoftheenergychargeperkWhis$0.378resulting
inaresidentialretailrateof$0.490perkWhandacommercialretailrateof$0.52perkWh.Outofits
FY2014budget,fuelcostsrepresented$243,160,00011,whichequatesto$.31/kWhofenergygenerated.
BasedonfiguresextrapolatedfromWAPA'saudited2013financialstatement12,fuelcostsperkWhmay
havebeenslightlyhigherthatyear.
AsisshownFigure613,theislandshavebeensubjecttosignificantpriceswingsforimportedoil,withan
upwardtrendincosts.Thesehavehadadirectimpactonelectricityprices.
Figure6.LEACandCostofOilovertime.
WithregardtoO&Mcosts,usingWAPA's2013financialdata,wehaveextrapolatedtheO&Mcostat
approximately$.04/kWh.
ORNL1994
WAPA2013e
11
Hodge2013b
12
WAPA2013f
13
NREL2011a
10
PropaneandLNGConversion
WAPAiscurrentlypreparingtomodifymostofitsgeneratingunitstoburnpropane,withatargetof
conversiontoliquidnaturalgas(LNG)withinseveralyears.Studiesconfirmingthefeasibilityof
conversionwerefirstauthorizedin2011,andincludedgeneratormanufacturerGE.InJuly,2012,WAPA
reviewedtheearlierstudiesandconcludedthatsmallscaleLNGconversionwasfeasible.RFQ'swere
issuedin2012bothforLNGconversionandforthesupplyofLPGasaninterimfuel.LNGwasseenasa
longertermsolution:"GiventhecurrentlylessdevelopedstateofsmallscaleLNGmarket,negotiations
withtheLNGrespondentsandtheimplementationofanLNGsolutionislikelytotakelongerthanthe
LPGsolution."14
ConversionwasinitiallytobegininJuly2013,butisnowexpectedtobecompletein201515.WAPA
statementsindicateanexpectedfuelcostreductionof30%16basedonasevenyearcontractsigned
withpropanesupplierVitolin2013,withthepossibilityof40%savingsfollowingafiveyear
amortizationperiod.17Vitolisprovidingadvancefundingfortrifuelretrofitofeightgeneratingunits.
FullconversiontoLNGcannotbeginuntiladditionalshippingandotherinfrastructureimprovementsare
inplace,whichisexpectedtobeafter2016.13However,thereissignificantuncertaintyaboutthe
viabilityofthisoption,duetothe(a)highercostsassociatedwithshippingLNGtomarketsassmallasSt.
ThomasandSt.Croixand(b)thepotentialcostofconstructingaLNGreceivingterminal.This
uncertaintyincreasedaftertheclosureoftheHOVENSArefinery.14
IfWAPA'sprojectionsfora30%fuelpricereductionareaccurate,fuelcostsmayfalltoabout$.24/kWh.
The40%reductionfigurecitedabovehasnotbeenvalidated.EvenalocalproponentofLNGconversion,
ChristianstedbasedQuestLNG,suggestsnogreaterthana30%savingsintheirmarketingmaterial.18
Transmission
ThetransmissionsystemonSt.Thomasconsistsofthree34.5kVfeedersfromthreesubstations
(RehelioHatchette,EastEnd,andTutu).Thereisalsoa34.5kVsubstationonSt.John.Distribution
voltageis13.8kV,withthreedistributionsubstations.PoweristransmittedfromSt.ThomastoSt.John
viatwo35kVsubmarinecables,withathirdavailableforemergencybackup.
OnSt.Croix,ninefeedersrunfromtheRichmondgeneratingstationthreeat24.9kVandthreeat13.8
kV.St.Croixbeganupgradingitsmainfeedersystemto69kVin2013.
Systemlossesaresignificant,withafigureof13%(St.Croix)and6%(St.Thomas/St.John)asindicatedin
RoadmapAnalysis.19Withplannedimprovements,lossesareexpectedtofallto5%ofenergysaleson
St.Thomasand7.2%ofsalesonSt.Croixby2016.20
14
Hodge2013a
deJongh2014
16
WAPA2013c
17
Hodge2014
18
QuestLNG2014
15
Thefollowingelectricdistributionmapshere(St.Thomasabove,St.Croixbelow)aredrawnfromNREL's
2011windintegrationstudy.21
Figure7.St. ThomasElectricalFeeders
19
NREL2010
20
WAPA2012a
NREL2011b
21
Figure8.St.CroixElectricalFeeders
USVIRENEWABLEENERGYPOTENTIAL
III. Renewable Energy Potential in the US Virgin Islands

TherenewableresourcepotentialoftheUSVirginIslandshasbeenunderintermittentstudyformany
years.TheWaterandPowerAuthorityhasissuedanumberofsolicitationsforrenewableenergy
projectsoverthepastdecade.AnRFPissuedin2004forRenewableandAlternativeEnergyhadtobe
suspendedduetoajurisdictionalconflictbetweenWAPAandthePublicServiceCommission.A2005
RFPresultedintheselectionofawindpowerbidder,buttheirproposalwaswithdrawn,reportedlyover
concernsabouthurricanerisk.22A2007RFPresultedintheselectionoftheAlpineEnergy,LLCwasteto
energy(WTE)bids(seebelowfordetaileddiscussion).A2011RFPforsolarenergyresultedinseveral
contracts(seebelowaswell).A2013RFPwasissuedtocloseaprocurementgapfromthe2011process.
Wind
PublishedstudiesofthewindenergypotentialintheUSVIdateatleastasfarbackas1981,whenthe
SouthernSolarEnergyCentercommissionedasitingassessmentandeconomicstudyunderaDOE
contract.23Thestudywasverypreliminaryandreliedonverylimiteddata.Thisstudyconcludedthat
therewas"considerablepromise"forutilityscalewind,andsuggestedmoredetailedstudies.
In2005,inresponsetooneoftheearliestWAPARFP'sforrenewableenergy,a19.8MWprojectforSt.
Croixwasselectedforfurthernegotiation.TheprojectwassaidtohaveofferedtomeetWAPA'savoided
costfornewgeneration,whichwassetbyWAPAat$.11/kWhatthetimebasedonanexpectationof
futureefficiencyimprovements.Negotiationsendedoverissuesofhurricaneriskandliabilities.24
AspartoftheNREL/DOEWindPower
Americaprogram,NRELbeganwind
resourcemodelingandvalidationatthe
30mlevel.Validationwasbasedonfour
measurementtowersandtwoairports.
Thestudyproduced70mand100mmaps
aswell,butthesewerenotinitially
validated.A2008report25estimatedanall
islandstechnicalpotentialof346MWat
average70mwindspeedsof6.5to7.0m/s,
134MWwithwindspeedsof77.5m/s,
and36MWwithspeedsof7.58m/s.
Thesefiguresareafterexclusionsfor
sensitiveareas(nationalparksandSt.
CroixMarinePark).Theestimatedcapacity
Figure9.PredominantWind DirectionatBovoniPoint,St.Thomas
22
Hodge2013a
SouthernSolar1981
24
USDOI2006
25
NREL2008
23
10
factorsforthe>7.0m/sregimewas>30%.Thefollowinghighlightswerereported:
Goodwindresourceareascanbefoundonmanyexposedridgecrestsandcoastalareas.
StrongestwindsareseenfromJunethroughAugustandDecemberFebruary,butthiscanvary
somewhatfromyeartoyear.
Diurnal(hourlyvariation)climatevariesconsiderably(daytimemaximuminmostlocations;
slightlygreaternighttimewindsonhighestridgecrests).
Tallertowermeasurementsandremotesensing(SODAR/LIDAR)neededtoaccurate
characterizethewindresourceathubheightsofmodernturbines.
Lowdiurnalvariationisadvantageousforwind,asarelativelyconstantwindmakesintegrationeasier.
AnotheradvantagetoUSVIwindsarethattheytendtobeunidirectional,asindicatedbythewind
rose.TheUSVIarewithinthetradewindbeltcharacterizedbyprevailingwindsfromtheeast.Thishas
positiveimplicationsforwindturbinearrays,astheycanbespacedmorecloselyinthecrosswind
direction.
Figure10.USVI70mWindSpeed
NREL's2011analysisoftheUSVI"EnergyRoadMap"limitedthepotentialwindcapacityto12MWto33
11
MW,dependingonscenario,dueto"potentiallanduseimpactsandpossiblesitingchallenges."The
resultingBaseCaseassumed22.5MWofwindoverthesubsequent15years.Twositesinparticular
wereemphasized:theBovoniLandfillinSt.Thomas,andthesouthshoreofSt.Croix,eastofthe
HOVENSArefinery(seemapbelow),duetothefactthatbothhadalreadybeenindustrializedandis
generallyconsideredtohavesomeofthebestaccessiblewindresource.Offshorewindwasexcluded
fromconsiderationduetothefactthatithadnotyetbeendeployedinNorthAmerica.
Figure11.AreasconsideredtohaveahighpotentialforwinddevelopmentintheUSVI(NREL).
NRELpublishedaBovonispecificstudysitein2012.Thestudyfocusedonspecificpotentialturbine
placementsandanalysisusingavarietyofturbinemodels.Photosimulationswerealsoprepared.Based
onmeasuredandmodeledwinddata,andusingVestas(ClassII)andVergnetturbines,estimated
installedcapacityatthesiterangefrom5.5MWto13MW.
21
Figure12.Bovoni,St.ThomasPotentialWindTurbineLocations.
12
TheestimatedcapacityfactorsweresignificantlybetterwiththeVestasturbines,whichwouldhave
higherhubheightsandlargerrotorsthantheVergnet(theadvantageofthelatterbeingtheirspecial
designforhurricanezonesseebelowforfurtherdiscussionofhurricaneconsiderations).Estimatednet
capacityfactorsfor80mhubheightsfortheVestasV1001800and2000were31%and27%,
respectively.
Levelizedcostofenergywasestimatedatbetween$.10and$.20/kWh,usingthenappropriatecapital
costassumptions.
Figure13.Photovisualizationofamultimegawattturbinewithanapproximately420fttipheight(takenfrompointEin
Figure12).
Atthebeginningof2013,atalltowerwasinstalledontheBovoniPeninsulaonthesouthshoreofSt.
Thomas,withameasurementheightof58m.Ahighqualitydatasetwaspublishedinearly2014.This
dataindicatedhigheraveragewindspeedsthanhadbeenpreviouslyestimatedforthesite.Themap
below,developedbyNRELaspartofanupdatedanalysis,indicatespotentialnetcapacityfactorsof35
40%inbetterexposedportionsoftheBovoniPeninsula.ThiswasbasedontheuseofaVestasV1001.8.
13
Figure14.BovoniWindSpeedsatpotentiallocations.
Priortoreceivingthismap,GridflexServices'ownanalysisofthedatahadindicatedanetcapacityfactor
of38.4%withan85mhubheight.ThisisveryclosetothenewNRELestimate.
TurbineselectionshouldbeconsideredcloselywhenestimatingthequalityofUSVIwindforenergy
production.Overthepastseveralyears,hubheightshaveincreasedandnewmodelswithlarger
rotor:generatorratioshavebeendevelopedandplacedintoservice.Infact,wecanlookelsewherein
theCaribbeanforanexampleofthedifferenceinoutput.Hutting26contraststwowindfarmson
Curacao.OnesiteiscalledTeraCora,andtheotherisPlayaCanoa.ThePlayaCanoasitehasa
remarkable58%capacityfactor,comparedwiththeTeraCorasite's35%capacityfactor,inpartdueto
theuseofalargerrotorwithlowerratedwindspeed,whichprovidesa40%increaseinsweptareaper
kW.(PlayaCanoaalsohappenstohavea10%higherwindspeed,andalowerlevelofturbinereliability).
WiththehurricaneriskintheUSVIasacaveat(seebelow),thewindspeedsontheislandwouldappear
tobewellsuitedforthesetypesofturbines.ThechoiceofturbineusedintheNRELanalysisthe
VestasV1001.8isindicativeofthepotentialofusingthe"stretchedrotor"turbine,becauseits
maximumoutputis1.8MWversusthe2.0MWmodel.Thepowercurveisdesignedtocapturelower
endwindsandpeakoutslightlyearlier.
26
HuttingKEMA
14
OnshoreWindCost
Capitalcostsforonshorewindhavefallenoverthepastseveralyears.Formodelingpurposes,weusea
figureof$2,500/kW,whichisconservativelyhigherthanwhatisusedforlargerprojectsinmainland
markets.27O&Mcostsareroughly$25/kWyr(combinedfixed&variable).Thecapitalcostfigureshould
becontrastedwiththatof$3,600/kWusedinNREL's2011"RoadMap"analysis.
OffshoreWind
Offshorewindisnowwellestablished,withthemajorityofinstallationsinEuropebutanincreasing
levelofdevelopmentinAsiaandintheU.S.Therearenow4,550megawattsofoffshorewindplantin
operation.Advantagestotheuseofoffshorewindvs.onshoreincludeagreatexpansionofavailable
spaceforinstallation,steadierandgenerallystrongerwinds,andgreateramenabilitytoverylarge
turbineswithbettereconomyofscale,atlowerrequiredhubheights.Thetradeoffsareprimarilyhigher
capitalcostandhigherO&Mcosts(roughlydoublewhatonshorewindcosts),alongwithtechnical
challengesofinterconnection.
Themajorityofinstalledoffshorewindinvolvesrelativelyshallowwater(<100feetindepth),buta
growingnumberofoffshoreisbeingplacedindeeperwater,withnew,floatingturbinedesigns
eliminatingtheneedforshallowwater.Theycanalsobeplacedfurtherout,reducingvisualimpacts(see
below).
OffshorewindisanoptionnotpreviouslytakenseriouslyfortheUSVI,withtheexceptionof10.5MW
projectproposedbyOceanOffshoreEnergy,apartnershipheadedbyTexasbaseddeveloperHerman
Schellstede.TheprojectwouldbelocatedsouthoftheBovonilandfillinSt.Thomas,andreceived
tentativeapprovalbythePublicServicesCommissionin2013.28
Astheeasterncoastalshelfwithdepthsunder100feetextendsoutatleastonemileoffthesouthern
shoresofbothSt.ThomasandSt.Croix,itrepresentsapotentiallyattractivecomplementtoonshore
wind.Thenumberofturbinesthatwouldberequiredisrelativelysmall,astheturbineswouldprobably
belargerthanthoseuseforland(a112meterdiameter,3MWturbinehasbeenassumedintheanalysis
tofollow).
Whilethearraysinthiscasewouldberelativelyclosetoshorecomparedtomostnewoffshorewind
farms,itssmallersizewouldallowittobepositionedwhereithasthesmallestimpactontheviewshed.
Shallownessofdepthandproximitytoshorealsoreduceinstallationandoperatingcosts,asindicatedby
themultiplierfactorsintheTable 1.
27
28
WECC2014
VIDailyNews2013a
15
Table1.ImpactofDepthandDistanceforOffshoreCosts
Environmentalimpactconsiderationsforoffshorewindareslightlydifferentthanforonshoreprojects.
Ofparticularinterestforstudyaretheeffectofpiledrivingduringconstructiononmarinemammals,
andimpactonmarineenvironmentsingeneral.Impactsontourismandmarinesafetyneedtobe
consideredaswell.However,studieshaveshownthatwithregardtoimpactontourism,"theevidence
isambiguous,andactualeffectsappeartobeminimalorpositive."29Infact,thefoundationsofoffshore
windturbinescanserveasartificialreefs,enhancingmarinepopulations.30
Capitalcostsforoffshorewindareatleastdoublethecostsforonshore,dependingonturbinesize,
depth,distance,andotherfactors,althoughonesourcesuggestedthatcostswouldbefallingtoaslow
as$2,191/kWby2020.31Thiscouldbeduetothetrendtowardlargerturbines,whicharenowavailable
inscalesof7MWandlarger.O&Mcostsaresignificantlyhigheraswell.Forourmodeling,we'veuseda
capitalcostfigureof$4,000/kW,withO&Mat$35/kWyr.
VisualImpactofOffshoreWind
WithalikelydistancefromshorebeginningataboutamileinthecaseofSt.Croix,and12milesforSt.
Thomas,visualimpactwillbeanimportantconsideration.Thefollowingimageportraysavisual
simulationofoffshorewindturbinesatvariousdistancesfromshore,beginningwithadistanceoftwo
miles.32
29
NREL2013
Langhamer2012
31
NREL2012b
32
SanteeCooper2009
30
16
Figure 15showsasimulationusinga90meterdiameterturbineatadistanceof2.2miles.33
Figure15.PhotoSimulationofHullOffshoreWindPowerProject.CreditRenewableEnergyResearchLaboratory.
33
Manwell2007
17
ThemaximumrealisticoffshorepotentialforSt.ThomasandSt.Croixisnotyetknown.Visualimpact
andintersectionwithshippinglanes,potentiallyenvironmentallysensitivelocations,andcostto
performanceratiowillsetlimits.
St.Thomas
AlthoughthereappearstobeextensivepotentialforoffshorewindsouthofSt.Thomas,careful
considerationwouldneedtobegiventospecificvisualimpactsofvariouspotentialarraysites.Distances
ofatleasttwomilesshouldhelp,alongwiththenorthsouthorientationofthearrays.The13arrays
shownintheRenewableSupplyPlacementsectionofthisreport(below)representatotalof156MW
muchlargerthanwouldbeneededforaSt.Thomas/St.Johnhighrenewableportfolio.
St.Croix
ThebestplaceforoffshorewindservingSt.Croixissouthandeastoftheindustrializedareaofthe
formerHOVENSArefinery.ThearrayportrayedintheRenewableSupplyPlacementsectionofthis
report(below)accommodates16x3MWturbines(e.g.,theVestasV1123.0),oratotalof48MW.If
placedinfournorthsouthorientedarraysof4turbineseach,thewindfarmwouldhaveanEWlength
of2.1milesandaNSwidthof1.05miles,using5xdiametercrosswindspacingand10xdiameter
downwindspacing.Potentialvisualimpactwouldhavetobestudiedfromvariousshorelineviewpoints.
Itmaybepossibletousefewerandlargerturbinesaswell,whichgarnerssomeadditionaleconomyof
scalebenefitandreducesthenumberofturbinescontributingtovisualimpact.
HurricaneRisktoWindTurbines
Thepotentialimpactofhurricanesonwindturbineshasbeenaconcerneversincewindfarmsbeganto
beconsideredforhurricane(andtyphoon)proneareas.ThespeedofsustainedwindsofaClass5
hurricane(157mph+)equalthepeakgust"survivalspeed"ofsomeClassIturbinemodels.Hurricane
concernwascitedbyWAPAexecutivedirectorHodgeasareasonfortheterminationofnegotiations
withawinddeveloperinresponsetoa2005RFP.Thebidder"couldnotcommitthatthewindturbines
thatwerebeingproposedcouldwithstandhurricaneforcewind."34
Figure 16andFigure 1735showthehistoricaltrackofmajorhurricanesthroughtheCaribbeansince

1960.TheUSVIareclearlyinahurricaneriskzone.Themostseverehurricaneinmoderntimeswas
HurricaneHugo(1989),whichcrossedoverSt.CroixasaClassIVstorm.HurricaneMarilyn(1995),
althoughonlyacategory23,causedsignificantdamageonSt.Thomas.Itshouldbenotedthatthereare
forecaststhatthefrequencyofseverehurricanesmayincreaseduetoglobalwarming.3637
34
Hodge2013a
Masters2010
36
Vickery2008
37
CARIBSAVE2012
35
18
Figure16.CaribbeanMajorHurricaneTracksSince1960.
Figure17.USVIMajorHurricaneTracks.Felton(2014).
19
Intermsofpracticalexperiencewithwindturbinesandhurricanes,Jamaicaofferssomeevidenceof
survivability.Ina2011presentation,theprojectmanagerfortheWigtonwindfarmnotesthatthe
Wigton1projectsurvivedHurricanesIvanandDean(ClassVandIV,respectively)withminimalincurred
damage:$640,000and$106,000,respectively.Thelongestrecoverytimeappearedtorelateto
transmissionlines.38Itshouldbenotedthattheturbinesinvolvedwereofthestallregulatedtype,which
tendstobehigherthanforturbinesofthepitchregulated(activecontrol)type.39Ingeneral,concern
overthesurvivabilityofwindturbinesinhurricanesappearstobedecreasing.40
Inadditiontoconsiderationsofmatchingwindturbineclasstowindregime(achoiceinfluencedby
turbulenceaswellasbywindspeeds),managementoftheriskappearstoberelatedtoahighdegreeto
theabilitytomaintaincontrolofthewindturbinesthroughoutthestormevent.Jargstorf(2010)says
thatthebiggestproblemawindturbinefacesinamajorstormisthelackofelectricitytocontrolits
orientationtothewind(azimuthcontrol)andthepitchoftheblades.Vestas(andpresumablyother
manufacturers)offersabackuppowerpackagethatensuresthateachturbinehasitsownpowersupply
evenifthegridconnectiongoesdown,thusallowingfullcontroloftheturbines.Inadditiontoensuring
controllabilitythroughouttheevent,theuseoffoundationswithhighersafetyfactorsandtubular
towers(whichcanalsobespecifiedwithhighersafetyfactors)arekeyconsiderationsaswell.
TurbinemanufacturerVergnetoffersa1.0MWmodelthatisdesignedsothattherotorcanbelowered
togroundlevelinadvanceofaseverestorm.Jargstorf(2010)saidthatitrequirestwopeoplethree
hourstolowertherotor/turbine,suggestingthattheavailabilityofstafftocarryoutthistaskinadvance
ofahurricanemaynotbeagiven.
Solar
Solarenergy,particularlythatbasedonphotovoltaicgeneration,iswellestablishedanditscosthas
beenfallingdramaticallyoverthepastseveralyears.Amongotheradvantages,solaroutputtendsto
followloadasitrisesandfalls.SolarinstallationiswellprovenintheCaribbean.Forexample,65MWof
PVareinstalledonGuadeloupeand59MWonMartinique.Constructionofatwophase,64MWsolar
parkintheDominicanRepublicbeganin2013.
SolarenergypotentialisusuallyindicatedinkWhpersquaremeter,andisdescribedintwoways:Direct
RadiationandGlobalHorizontalIrradiation(GHI).Inareaswherecloudcoverisareasonableexpectation,
andwhereflatplatePVisthemorelikelytechnology(vs.concentratingsolartechnologies),theGHIisa
moreappropriatefiguretouse.
38
Wigton2011
Jargstorf2010
40
Roseetal2012
39
20
Table2andtheaccompanyingmap41inFigure18indicatesthehighqualityofthesolarresourceinthe
U.S.VirginIslands.Aswouldbeexpected,solarenergyavailabilityishighestduringthesummer,butthe
Table2.EstimatedsolarresourcefortheVirginIslands(Lat18NLong65W)kWh/m2 perday.
Figure18.USVIGlobalHorizontalIrradiation.
resourceisexcellentyearround.NRELhasstatedthattheUSVIsolarresourceisapproximately85%
thatoftheU.S.DesertSouthwest.42
IntermsoftotalMWpotential,thisislimitedonlybytheavailabilityofland.Intheir2011analysisofthe
USVIenergyroadmap,NRELassumedtheallislandspotentialtobelimitedto6to13MWduetothen
applicablecosts,although18MWofcontractswereawardedintheyearssince(seebelow).SolarPV
continuestorepresentasmallportion(relativetoTotalEnergyGeneration)ofUSVIenergyplan.
In2013,WAPAissuedanRFPforsolarprojectproposals,seeking10MWofcapacity.Fortyfive(45)
companiesexpressedinitialinterest,and27companiessubmitted"verycompetitivebids."45Six(6)
companieswereshortlisted,includingAESSolar,BeSmartEnergyCapital,Lanco,SunEdison,SunPower
Corp,andToshiba.18MWworthofPPA's(10.5MWforSt.Croixand8.3MWforSt.Thomas),were
41
CleanPowerResearch2010
NREL2011a
45
WAPA2013b
42
21
offeredtothreeparties:Lanco,SunEdison,andToshiba.Thefirsttwocontractsweredissolveddueto
siteavailabilityissues,andtheLancocontractwasreassignedtoafirmcalledMainStreetPower.The
ToshibaprojectwaslateracquiredbyNRG.
AnewRFPwasissuedinDecember2013,for9MWofPV(3MWonSt.Thomasand6MWonSt.Croix).
SixfirmssubmittedbidsforprojectsonSt.Thomas,andeightfirmssubmittedbidsforSt.Croix.Firms
havebeenshortlisted,butavendorhasnotbeenselectedasofthiswriting.
Intermsofpricing,theLancocontractwastobeginat$.1725/kWh,escalatingat3%annually,resulting
inalevelizedpriceof$.221over20years.TheSunEdisonpricewasfixed,rangingfrom$.14223to$.245.
TheToshibapricebeginsat$.155,escalatingat1.5%annually,fora20yearlevelizedpriceof
$.1716/kWh.
ExpectedcapacityfactorsfortheSt.CroixsitePVcontractsawardedin2013rangedfrom2025%forthe
St.Croixsites;theSt.Thomasprojectswereprojectedat20%.46ThebestoptionsforsolarPVintheUSVI
arefixedtiltandsingleaxistracking.Whilethecostishigher,singleaxistrackingofferssubstantially
greateroutput.ABarbadosrelatedstudyforecasta22%greatercaptureofGHIthanfixedtilt.47Forthis
report'sanalysis,weassumedtheuseofsingleaxistracking.
SolarPVCost
Asnotedearlier,costsforPVhavebeendroppingsignificantlyasshowninFigure19.48TheCalifornia
EnergyCommissionrecentlyestimatedthatbetween2014and2024,instantcostsforsingleaxis
trackingPVwouldfallbybetween4%and44%forinstallationsatthe20MWscale.49Thisisamore
optimisticexpectation
thanwhatissuggestedby
theE348graph.
Recentcostfiguresfor
singleaxistrackingPV
rangefrom$3,000
$4,000/kW(ACoutput).45
Foranalysispurposes
lookingforward,weused
afigureof$2,800/kW.
O&Mwouldbe$25/kW
yr.Thesefiguresmatch
anothersetofprojections
Figure19.HistoricandprojectedsolarPVmodulepricesbasedonobservedlearningcurve.
46
WAPA2013c
Castalia2010
48
E32014
49
CEC2014
47
22
forcrystallinesingleaxistrackercostsat$2,794/kWacin2015and$2,224/kWacin2020.50Thesefigures
aredramaticallylowerthanwhatwasusedinNREL's2011"RoadMap"analysis($6,000/kWforutility
scalePV).EnergypricesforlargescalePVprojectsinthesouthwesternU.S.arenowreportedlyaslowas
8cents/kWh.
Figure20isfromLazard'smostrecent(September2014)assessmentoflevelizedcostsforrenewable
energy.51Thepresentrangeisfrom$72to$86/MWh.
Figure20.SolarPVLCOE($/MWh)overtime.
Siting
Withcostshavingfallendramatically,thechieflimitingfactortoPVdevelopmentintheUSVInow
appearstobelandareaandthecapacityofthesystemtointegratePVoutput.
Takingadvantageoftheflexibilityinsiting,itmakessensetoplacesolarinstallationsasclosetoloadas
possible.InSt.ThomasandSt.Croix,however,theavailabilityoflandmaybeagreaterfactor.Anumber
ofdistributedsitesatscalesof35MWeachmaybeviable,andthiswouldhelpreducetheeffectof
50
51
NPCC2013
Lazard2014
23
clouddrivenintermittencyaswellasreducinglineloss.Solarinstallationsofthissizerequire58acres
perMW,soeachsitewouldrequireatleast15acres.
Theavailabilityofcertainsizable,flat,andwellexposedpropertiescouldpresentanattractive
alternativetodistributesites.OnSt.Croix,theHOVENSArefinerysitemaypresentsuchanopportunity.
Itisdescribedbelow.
UseoftheHOVENSASite(St.Croix)foraLargePVProject
In2012itwasannouncedthat
theHOVENSAoilrefineryon
St.Croix'ssoutherncoast
wouldclose.Therefinery,in
operationfor45years,
employed2,500people.
Closurehashadamajor
economicimpact.The
HOVENSAsiteoccupies2,000
acres,withadditional
governmentownedland
adjacent.Anexternal
consultant,DuffandPhelps,
preparedastudyofthe
"HighestandBestUse"ofthe
refineryfortheUSVI
government.52Their
conclusionwasthatcontinued
operationasarefinerywould
betheoptimaloutcome.
TheDuff&Phelpsreport
Figure21.PotentialSolarPVSite(HOVENSA).
notedthatthesitecouldbea
goodlocationforrenewableenergyprojects.Itnotedthatthesitegetsaboveaveragesolarirradiation
comparedwiththerestofSt.Croix,andthatitincludes"someoftheflattestspansoflandintheentire
USVI."Itisalso,ofcourse,zonedforindustrialuse(I1).
Adetailedanalysisofthefullsitehasnotbeenundertaken.However,ifonly25%ofthesite(500acres)
weresuitableforsolarPV,itcouldaccommodateasmuchas62.5MWofcapacitycouldbeinstalledat
theconservativefigureof8acres/MW.Theonlydownsidewouldbetheincreasedintermittencyriskof
52
Duff&Phelps2012
24
concentratingtheisland'sPVproductioninonelocation,butthismaybecompensatedforbythe
balancingeffectoftheremainderoftheportfolio,alongwiththeuseofenergystorage.
UseoftheHONVENSAsiteforPVcoulddovetailwellwithuseforonshorewind.
Biomass
Biomassgenerationinvolvesthecombustionofplantmatter,agriculturalresidues,orbiogas.Thetwo
primaryformsofcombustioninvolveeitherdirectfiringorgasification,withtheformerbeingmore
common.Biomassisawellestablishedformofrenewableenergygeneration.Itisnotascarbonneutral
aswindorPV,asemissionsofgreenhousegasesaresignificant.Itdoes,however,provideabaseload
sourceofgeneration.
Biomasspotentialis
largelydetermined
bytheavailabilityof
fuel.NREL's2011
analysiscited
Chakroff(2010)'s
estimatethat8.8
tonsofbiomasscould
besustainably
harvestedperacre
peryearinnon
forestedareas.Using
landfiguresforSt.
Croix,itwas
estimatedthatif10%
oflandareacouldbe
usedforthe
developmentof
biomass,therewould
bethepotentialfora
Figure22.BiocroppotentialforSt.Croix.
12MWplantonSt.
Croix.However,theUSVIRoadMapsuggestedapotentialof35MWonSt.Croix.
St.Thomasalsohassignificantlandthatmaybesuitableforbiomasscultivation,althoughatasmaller
scalethanwhatisavailableonSt.Croix.We'vethususedasmallerfigureforbiomass'roleinaSt.
Thomasrenewableenergyportfolio.
Capitalcostswereestimatedat$8,200/kW,basedonEIAfiguresformainlandU.S.projects.
InthetimesincethatNRELanalysis,TibbarEnergybegandevelopinga7MWbiogasprojectonSt.Croix
thatwillusefastgrowingGiantKingGrassasitsfeedstock.Thesupplyfieldwilloccupyanareaof1,000
25
acres.53TheprojectitselfwillbesitedonaparcelwestoftheAnguillalandfillandownedbytheWater
andPowerAuthority,whoprovideda$15millionloanfortheprojectandawardedita25yearpower
purchaseagreementfor7MWofoutput.Thereportedpriceis$.245forthefirstfiveyears,$.24for
years620,and$.23forthelastfiveyears.Therewillbeanoptiontoextendthecontractbyfiveyears.54
Commencementofoperationisexpectedin2015.Thereareactually4x3MWbiogasgenerators,but
parasiticloadwilllimitoutputto8.5MW.55Capitalcostfiguresforthisprojectarenotreadilyavailable,
butthe2013Tibbarpresentationdocumentstatesthat$75millionwillbespentontheprojectduring
thenextseveralyears.Thissuggeststhattheper/kWcostoftheprojectmaybeupwardsof$9,000/kW.
OnepotentialchallengethattheprojectmayfaceistherecentbankruptcyoftheEuropeanfirmthatis
tosupplythebiogasequipment.56Asofthiswriting,thisdevelopmenthasnotbeenreportedtohave
affectedtheschedulefortheTibbarproject.
WastetoEnergy
WastetoEnergy(WTE)isatermthatincludesarangeofwaysofusingsolidwasteforenergy
production.WTEisnowwellestablishedworldwide.IntheUSalone,whichisamongthesmalleractive
markets,thereare84WTEfacilitiesinoperationproducing2,769megawatthoursofbaseload
electricityannually.57VarietiesofWTEtechnologiesincludeincinerators,digesters,andlandfill
extractors.
WTEhasattractedinterestacrosstheCaribbeanregion.InBarbados,a3035MWprojectwasrecently
announced.Theplant,expectedtoconsume650tonsofwasteperdayandprovidefor25%of
Barbados'electricenergyneeds,wouldgoonlinein2017.Expectedcostis$240million.58
AmongthenegativeaspectsofWTEistheproductionofemissions.AnewertechnologycalledPlasma
Gasification,whichisthetechnologyintendedforuseinBarbados,hasthepotentialtosignificantly
reducesuchwasteproducts.Although,thepriceofthistechnologyisdecreasing,thereiscurrentlyno
commerciallyinstalledsystemintheUnitedStatesandpresentsarisktotheUSVI.
WTEhasbeenconsideredfortheUSVIsinceatleast1994,whenapotentialof12MWperislandwas
suggestedbyORNL.59In2010,AlpineEnergyGroupwasawardedcontractsfortwoWTEplantsasa
resultofWAPA's2007RFP.Theseweretoincludea33MWplantonSt.Thomasanda16MWproject
onSt.Croix.Thetechnologywastohaveusedamixtureofpelletizedrefusederivedfuelandpetroleum
coke,withfluidizedbedsteamgenerators.Undertheagreement,Alpinewastohavebeenrequiredto
acceptupto73,000tonsperdayofacceptablewastegeneratedoneachisland.WAPAwastohavepaid
Alpineforsolidwastemanagement,andAlpinewouldberesponsibleforashdisposal.
53
Tibbar2014
St.ThomasSource2014
55
Tibbar2013
56
ENDS2014
57
ERC2014
58
Barbados2014b
59
ORNL1994
54
26
TheWTEenergypricefortheBovonisitewas$.14peakand$.13offpeak,andfortheSt.Croixsiteit
was$.15,subjecttoannualescalationandperiodicadjustments.60Itshouldbenotedthatthesefigures
appeartoreflectasubsidyintheformofthewastemanagementfees($91/ton).53
Theprojectsraisedpublicopposition,whichWAPAdescribedasbaseless.61WAPA'sexecutivedirector,
HugoHodge,reportedin2013thattheinitialfailurewasduebothtotheoppositionoftheuseof
petroleumcokeintheprojectsandtoAlpine'sinabilitytoobtainauthorizationfromthelegislatureto
leasegovernmentlands.62In2011,thecontracthadbeenmodifiedtoincludejusttheSt.Croixproject
andeliminatetheuseofpetroleumcoke.However,Alpinewasunabletoobtainagovernmentleaseon
thelandinSt.Croix,either.Thecontractwassubsequentlycancelled.WAPA'sEnergyProductionAction
Planstatesthatthe16MWproject"failedtogeneratesufficientpublicsupport."63In2012,aWAPA
representativesaidthatthecancellation"leavesabigholeinourplantoachieve60%by2025."64
WastetoEnergywastohavemet1/3oftherenewableenergygoal.
In2011,NRELhadproducedawastetoenergyevaluationfortheUSVI.65Accordingtothisdocument,
65,000tonsofmunicipalsolidwasteperyearwerecollectedonSt.Thomas(8,600fromSt.Johnand
59,600fromSt.Thomas),and81,500tonswerecollectedinSt.CroixandburiedintheAnguillaLandfill.
Intotal,133,000tonsofwasteperyearwereavailableforWTEforallislandscombined.Usingan
assumptionof.03MWpertonperday,thiswouldtranslateinto13MWofcapacity(NRELcontrasted
thiswithAlpine'sfigures,asAlpinehadclaimedahigherefficiency).Thereportconcludedthatthe
proposedWTEfacilitieswouldhaveeconomicssimilartothoseinthecontinentalUS,offeralowerlife
cycleimpactontheenvironmentthanthestatusquouseoflandfills,andhavethepotentialtomeetall
EPAemissionsstandards.
TheUSVIEnergyRoadMapincludesagoalof16.5MWofWTE.66Thetechnologyappearstoremaina
viablepotentialcontributortotherenewableenergyportfolioonbothSt.ThomasandSt.Croix.Issues
needingresolutionincludeprojectfinancing,theneedforexperiencedcontractorsandsuppliers,
selectionofaproventechnology,andtheneedforalongtermcontractforwaste.Successfully
addressingpublicconcernswouldbeessential.Forpurposesofouranalysis,we'veassumeda5MW
WTEinstallationoneachisland.Thiscouldpotentiallybemetbylandfillgasalone;theRoadMap
documentcitestheEPAasindicatingapotentialfor35MWofpowerfromlandfillmethanefromthe
existinglandfills,whichareunderEPAclosureorders.Aprojectwithacapacityof0.8MWappearsto
havealreadybeenconstructedatBovoni,butisreportedlynotoperating.67
ThecapitalcostofaWTEplantcanvarywidely.We'veusedafigureof$8,000/kW,whichapproximates
theestimatefortheBarbadosprojectandmatchesindustryfigures.
60
WAPA2010b
WAPA2010a
62
Hodge2013a
63
WAPA2012b
64
EDIN2012a
65
NREL2011c
66
EDIN2011b
67
EPA2014
61
27
MAINTAININGGRIDSTABILITYANDRELIABILITYOFSUPPLY
IV. Maintaining Grid Stability and Reliability of Supply
Basics
Anelectricpowergridmustmaintainacontinuousbalancebetweenloadandsupply.Ifloadexceeds
supply,thefrequencyofthesystemcandrop,whichinturncausesvoltagedrops,whichinturncause
brownoutsandblackouts.Ifsupplyexceedsload,voltagespikescanoccur.Frequencyregulation,which
occursatveryshorttimescales,isdesignedtopreventtheseproblemsatasubsecondtosecondstime
scale.
Onalongertimescale(minutestohours),thesystemhastomaintaintheabilitytomeetfluctuationsin
demandaswellasequipmentcontingencies.Loadbalancingkeepsthesysteminbalanceinthe
secondstominutestimescale.Onalongertimescale,certainlevelsofgenerationarekeptonstandby
asspinningreserveandsupplementaryreserve.
ReserveRequirements
Overthelongesttimescale,autilityneedstoplanitssupplyadditionstoensureithasenough
generationonhandtomeetmajorcontingencies.Thereserverequirementisthemarginofgeneration
capacityinstalledaboveandbeyondwhatthepeakloadis.Twocommonstandardsusedforsettingthis
benchmarkare15%ofpeakload,andan"N1"contingency(thelossofthelargestsinglegenerating
unit).
PowerQuality
Powerqualityrelatestoshorttimeframedynamicsonthesystem.Themainproblemsencounteredata
verylocallevelinrelationtorenewableresourcescanincludeflicker(rapidandsmallvoltagechanges
causedbyvariableoutputofturbine),andharmonics(causedbypowerelectronics).Today'swind
turbinescanbesuppliedwithequipmentthatnotonlycompensatesforthesetypesofissues,butwhich
canaddtogridstabilityaswell.SolarPVInvertersalsohavethecapabilityofprovidingreactivepower,
improvingpowerquality.BatteryandcapacitorbasedStaticSynchronousCompensators(SATCOMs)
canalsobeemployedfortheentiregrid.
ChallengesCreatedbyHighRenewableEnergyPenetration
Windisavariableresourcebecauseitsoutputcan'tbepreciselyknowninadvance,althoughitspatterns
canbewellknownthroughgooddatacollection.SolarenergysolarPVinparticularisnotvariable,
butitdoesexperienceintermittencythroughcloudcover.ThechartsshowninFigure23(basedon
VirginIslandsdata)illustratethisphenomenonforPV:
28
Figure23.SolarOutputFluctuations.
Changesinwindpoweroutputarenotasdramatic,buttheycanbesignificant.Hutting68,speakinginthe
contextofAruba,reportsthat35MWoutof60MWofwindcapacitycandropin15minutes.Figure24
fromHutting,illustratesthevariability
ofwindascomparedwiththe
variabilityofdemand.
PenetrationLevels
Conventionalstandardsfortheamount
ofvariable/intermittentrenewable
capacitythatatypicalutilitygridcan
sustainrangefrom10%to30%.Thisis
sometimescalledthepenetrationlevel.
WAPA'sEnergyProductionActionPlan
statesthatwindandsolarmustbe
limitedtonomorethan1525%of
Figure24.WindVariabilityDemandVs.Supply
demand,andthatovercomingthislimit
needseitherstorageoragridconnectiontoanotherutility.69
68
69
Hutting(b)
WAPA2012b
29
The30%levelhasreportedlyalreadybeenreachedinmanyislandcontexts,includingCorsica,Reunion,
andGuadeloupe.70Theacceptablelevelofpenetrationreallyisverymuchdependentonthemakeupof
theresourcebase.Huttingsuggeststhatthereisa"10%penetrationmyth",citingthefactthatmany
locationshavefarexceededthislevel(e.g.,westernDenmarkat66%,SpainandPortugalat43%,
Germanyat32%).71
CapacityValue
Capacityvalueistheabilityofagenerationresourcetobeavailablewhenthesystemrequiresit.A
conventionalgenerationresourceisassumedtohaveacapacityvalueofaround90%(takinginto
accountsomeuncertaintyforplannedandforcedoutages).Thecapacityvalueofrenewableresources
varieswidely.Geothermal,forexample,isabaseloadresourcethatisdispatchable,soitcanbe
controlledtoalargedegree.Itisgrantedahighcapacityvalue.
Attheotherextreme,windisusuallygrantedalowcapacityvalueduetoitsvariability.However,in
placeswherethewindissteadier,capacityvaluecanbehigher.UsingacommonLossofLoad
Probability(LOLP)methodology,Hutting72indicatedthataplanned20MWwindprojectinJamaica
wouldhaveacapacityvalueofabout7MW,whichismorethan30%.Thisissignificantlyhigherthan
figuresseeninUSinteriorwindprojects,rangingfrom0to15%.SolarPVisusuallygrantedahigher
capacityvalue,upto50%ormore,asitishighlypredictable(albeitsubjecttointermittency).
Forpurposesofouranalysis,capacityvaluewasnotevaluateddirectly.Rather,wereliedonhourly
outputdataforasomewhatmoreempiricalapproach.However,goodcapacityvaluesforwindandPV
onornearSt.ThomasandSt.Croixwillonlyenhancetheviabilityofshiftingtoahighrenewablebase
withoutaninordinaterelianceonstorageandotherbackup.
StrategiesforMaintainingGridStability&ReliabilityofSupply
Manylessonshavebeenlearnedaboutworkingwithsignificantlevelsofrenewableenergypenetration.
Amongtherecommendations7374thatwouldapplytohighrenewablesystemslikewhatisbeing
proposedbyIEIarethefollowing:
1.Operationalflexibility.ThesystemsonSt.ThomasandSt.Croixalreadyhavesomeinherent
operationalflexibilitythroughtheuseofanumberofsmallerunitsthatcanberampedupanddown,
albeitatacostpenalty.Speedofresponsewillbelimitedaswell.Operationalflexibilityalsoappliesto
therenewableresourcesthemselves.Windturbinesshouldbeequippedwithactivepowerandramp
ratelimiters,alongwithfrequencycontrolconverters.7576
70
CIREC2013
Hutting(a)
72
HuttingKEMA
73
Brattle2013
74
Roesch2013
75
Hutting(b)
76
EDF2012
71
30
2.Fastresponse.ThisisparticularlytrueofsystemswithalargeamountofsolarPV.Rampspeedsare
fastestwithstoragetechnologieslikebatteriesandpumpedstorage,andslowestwithconventional
fossilunits.
3.Increasedoperatingrange.Thelargerthenumberofgeneratingunits,thewidertheoperatingrange
ofeach,andthemorecontrolisavailableovereachofthose,thewidertheoperatingrangeforthe
entiresystem.Theoperatingrangeofthecurrentsystemisnotbad,becausesometypesofunitscanbe
operatedatpartloadwithoutlosingtoomuchefficiency.However,thereisanefficiencypenaltyfor
partloadoperation(seegraphbelowforadieselbasedexample77).Furthermore,rampingupanddown
doesincreaseO&Mcosts,andeachunitdoeshaveaminimumoperatinglevel(~30%foraflexiblediesel
unit).(Itshouldalsobekeptinmindthatevenwindpowerhastheabilitytobedispatchedinthedown
directionrelativelyquickly,soitcanactuallycontributetooperatingrange.)
Figure25.RelativeFuelConsumptionofaWartsilaEngineatDifferentLoads
4.Fullsystemautomation.Asophisticated,automatedcontrolsystemwouldbeneededtomost
efficientlyandrapidlycoordinateasystemhighinrenewableenergyinputandusinganumberof
resourcesforbackupand/orstorage.
5.Operationalforecasting.Windenergyforecastingcanbedoneonshorttimescales,e.g.,byusing
scanningLIDAR.78Predictionwillbeeasierforcoastaloroffshoresitesthanwithmountainsites.79
6.Storage.Itiswidelyacknowledgedthatenergystorageprovidesawiderangeofbenefitsandservices
toautilitysystem.Storageisconsideredarequirementforthehighestpenetrationsystems,andone
technologyispreferredaboveothersforthiskindofsituation.Justoneexampleofthisisprovidedhere
inthecontextofAruba,Huttingstates:"Demandsidemanagementandmoreflexibleoperationwill
raisetheuseofwindenergyfrom30to35%oftotaldemand...Forfurtherexpansionofwindenergy,a
77
Castalia2012
Hutting(b)
79
EDF2012
78
31
pumpedstoragesystemappearstobeneeded."80Energystorageisdiscussedingreaterdetailinthe
nextsection.
Demandresponsecanbeanothertoolintheportfolioformanaginghighlevelsofrenewableenergy
sourcing63.Withdemandresponse,consumersarecompensatedforallowingsystemoperatorstolower
orcutdemandonshortnotice.Thismaybeviableforlargerindustrialcustomerswhohavesome
flexibilityintheiruseofpower.
OtherHighRenewableTransitionsinIslandContexts:
ElHierro(Implemented)
ElHierro(Canary
Islands)isperhapsthe
bestknownexampleof
anislandpowersystem
beingconvertedtoa
veryhigh(>50%)
renewableenergy
supply,andcertainlya
goodillustrationofthe
useofpumpedstorage
toachievethisend.El
Hierrodesignedand
implementedasystem
comprisedof11.5MW
ofwindand11.3MWof
pumpedstorage.
Previouslycompletely
dependentondiesel
generation,theisland
willnowobtain65%of
itsenergysupplyfrom
windandonly35%from
diesel.81
Recentreportsindicate Figure26.ElHierro,CanaryIslands,HighREPenetrationSystem
thatadditionalwind
turbinesarebeingaddedtomovetoa100%renewableenergysupply.
80
81
Hutting(b)
ElHierro2014;Piernavieja2010;Hallametal2012
32
OtherHighRenewableTransitionsinIslandContexts:
Jamaica(Conceptual)
AconceptualanalysissimilarinsomewaystowhatisbeingdoneherewasperformedforJamaicabythe
WorldwatchInstitute,withsupportbytheGermangovernment.Theyconsideredarangeofscenariosof
renewableenergypenetrationandassessedthecostsandbenefits.Amongtheirfindings:"Ourtechnical
scenarioanalysisillustratesthatJamaicacanreachahighshareofrenewableenergythroughthreevery
differenttransitioningpathways.Thecapacityratesatwhichconventionalplantsarerundecreases
progressivelywithgrowingrenewableenergyshares."82Thiswasmostviablewithgradualretirements
ofexistingoilbasedunits,lesssowithnewgasorcoaladditionsplannedfortheinterim,duetothefear
ofstrandedinvestments.
Thescenarioshownbelowrepresentsthehighestrenewableenergyleveltransitionthatwasmodeled:
94%by2030.Thisparticularscenarioincludedenergystoragebackup.Thestudydiscoveredthat
withoutstorage,excessgenerationbysolarandwindrequireda31%levelofcurtailmentofoutputof
thoseresources.Withstorage,curtailmentdroppedto19%.Itwasnotclearfromthereport,however,
howmuchstoragewasspecified,andofwhattype.
Figure27.JamaicaHighREPenetrationModelScenario.
Intermsofeconomicbenefits,Worldwatchprojectedapotential67%costreductionbetweenthe2010
baselineand2030(Figure28).
82
Worldwatch2013
33
Figure28.JamaicaInvestment,GenerationCost,andSavingsforREScenarios
34
ENERGYSTORAGE:USESANDALTERNATIVES
V. Energy Storage: Uses and Alternatives

Therehasbeenasurgeofinterestanddevelopmentinenergystorageinrecentyears,inlargepartdue
tothedramaticriseintheuseofwindandsolarenergy.However,itshouldbenotedthatlargescale
energystoragehasbeenusedformanydecadesintheformofpumpedstoragehydropower.In1978,
anothermajorstoragetechnologyenteredthescene,withthe290MWcompressedairenergystorage
(CAES)plantinHuntorf,Germany.PuertoRicohostedamajorinnovationin1994whenitbuilta20MW
batteryenergystoragesystem(BESS)atSabanaLlana.83
Thereareavarietyofusesforenergystorage,andavarietyoftechnologies.Thefollowingcommonly
seenchartfromEPRI(ElectricPowerResearchInstitute)illustratesthisvariety.
Figure29.EPRIEnergyStorageComparisonChart
Whenconsideringtheuseofenergystorage,whichisparticularlyimportantforhighrenewablesettings,
itisvitaltomatchthetechnologytothepurpose.Thisissomewhatcomplicatedbythefactthat
differenttechnologiesmaybecompetingforthesamepurpose,andbytherapidpaceofresearch,
development,demonstration,andimplementationbeingseentoday.ThechartinFigure30,(US
DepartmentofEnergy(2013),illustratesthelevelofmaturityofvariousenergystoragetechnologies
today.Figure3184showsthedominanceofPumpedHydroStorageinstallationsintheUnitedStates.
83
84
FarberDeAnda2005
ElectricityAdvisoryCommittee.2011.
35
Figure30.MaturityofEnergyStorageTechnologies
Figure31.2011EnergyStorageCapacity(MW)intheU.S.ByTechnology
36
BasedontheEPRIchart,itissometimesassumedthatpumpedstorageisonlysuitableforfunctionsthat
don'tdemandfastresponse.Thiswouldbeanerroneousassumption.Theuseofadjustablespeed
pumpturbines(sometimescalledvariablespeed)hassignificantlyshortenedresponsetime,intothe
millisecondrange.Thisisillustratedinthechartbelow.Basedonlongtermstorageanddischargetime,
technologymaturity,andavailablesites,PHSisastrongcandidateforthebestavailablemultihour
energystoragetechnologyfortheUSVI.
Figure32.GridPowerControlIssuesandPHSSolutions
PumpedStorageHydropower
Pumpedstoragehydropoweristhebestestablishedandmostcosteffectiveformoflargescalestorage
intheworldtoday.Ithasbeeninusefornearly100years,andtodaytherearemorethan120plantsin
operationworldwide,representingmorethan120,000megawattsofcapacity.Projectsrangeinsize
fromtheverylarge(suchasthe
2,200MWBathcountyprojectin
Virginia)tothesmall(e.g.,the
11.5MWarrangementinEl
Hierro).Economiesofscale
generallyfavorthelarge,but
pumpedstorageviabilityisvery
dependentonsiteconditionsand
marketcontext.
Pumpedstorageisbasedona
simpleprinciple:pumpfromlower
toupperreservoirwhenthereis
surpluselectricityonthegrid,and
releasefromuppertolowerto
generateduringhoursofneed.
Thisisillustratedintheimage.
Figure33.PumpedHydroStorageDiagram
37
Reservoirscanbenaturalorartificialbodies.Historically,mostprojectsusedanaturallakeorriverforat
leastoneofthereservoirs(upperorlower).Someprojectstookadvantageoftwoexistingbodiesof
wateratdifferentelevations.Someprojectsproposedtodayare"closedloop"innature,whichmeans
thattheydon'tinvolvenaturalwaterwaysatall.
Reservoirsareinmostcasesconnectedbyanundergroundtunnel,butinsomecasesuseaboveground
conduits.Thepowerhousecontainsthepumpingandgeneratingequipment.Inthe1950's,the
efficiencyofcombiningpumpandturbineintoasinglereversiblepumpturbinewasdiscovered,and
nearlyeverypumpedstorageprojectbuiltsincethenusesthatapproach.Therearesomethatuse
separatepumpsandturbines,whichcanbeadvantageous,orevennecessary,incertainsituations.This
iscalledatandem,orsometimesternary,arrangement.
Theroundtripefficiencyofhistoricprojectshasrangedfrom70%to80%.Withtheadventof
adjustablespeedpumpturbines,whichallowforawiderrangeofoperation(particularlyinpumping
mode),efficiencyhasgenerallyincreased,althoughitisalsoaffectedbythelengthofconduits.
Pumpedstorageisverysitespecific,witharequirementofrelativelyhighhead(verticaldrop)overa
shortdistance.Thehigherthehead,themorepowerisavailablefromlesswater,reducingthesizing
requirementsofreservoirsandconduits(whichareusuallythemostexpensivecomponentsofthe
plant).Headsforexistingprojectsrangefromlessthan300feettomorethan4,000feet.Lengthtohead
ratioisalsoimportant;forhigherheadsites,thisratioshouldgenerallynotexceed10.Forlowerhead
sites(<600feet),aratiooflessthan5isadvised.
Intermsofperformancecharacteristics,thesevarybyprojectandbydesignspecification.Ramprates
canbeveryhigh:the1,700MWDinorwigplantinWaleswasdesignedtogofromstandbytofullpower
in12seconds.Beingabletobringtheentiregeneratingcapacityofapumpedstorageplantonlinein
under60secondsfromstandstillisnotunusual.Whenmodechangesareinvolved(e.g.,switchingfrom
generatingtopumpingandviceversa),ramptimesareslow;forsomefairlymodernplants,itcantake
severalminutestoachievethis.Theuseofseparatepumpsandturbinescansignificantlyshortenmode
changetimes,butcomesatanaddedcost.
PumpedStorageCost
Costsforpumpedstoragevarywidelyfromprojecttoproject,largelybecausetheamountofcivilwork
requiredvarieswidely.Costwillalsobesensitivetoprojectscale(economyofscalegenerallyinforce),
andtotheamountofstoragetimedesired.BasedonGridflexwiderangingsurveyofpumpedstorage
costsandcostestimates,therangemaygenerallybeconsideredbetween$1,000/kWand$3,000/kW
foraprojectwith1012hoursofstorage.Withconventionalprojects,equipment(thepumpturbines
andmotorgenerators,andancillaryelectricalequipment)representsonly1530%ofthecost,withcivil
works(dams,reservoirs,tunnels,powerhouseconstruction)representingthebalance.
Amongtheadvantagesofpumpedstorageintermsofcost,isitslifetime.Toourknowledge,nopumped
storageplanthaseverbeenretired.Lifetimescanbeassumedtobeatleast60years,andpossiblymuch
38
longer.Overhaulstotheequipmentcanbeexpectedatthe20year(motorrewinding)and30year
(turbinerunnerreplacement)marks.
PumpedStorageinIslandContexts
Duetoitsprovennature,costeffectiveness,andversatility,pumpedstorageappearstobethestorage
technologyofchoiceforislandsystemslookingattransitioningtohighlevelsofrenewableenergy.The
followingareexamples.
Implemented
Okinawa:30MW(seediscussioninSeawaterPumpedStorage)
ElHierro:11MW(seeearlierdiscussion)
Proposed/UnderStudy
Guadeloupe:50MW/1GWhstorage/Seawater,intendedtopermit50%renewableenergy
penetration85
Antigua:15MW/Seawater,tobepairedwithwind86
Haiti:10MW,proposedtobepairedwith10MWwind,8.6MWPV,dieselbackup87
Jamaica:Sizeunknown;Seawatersite,highhead88
SanMiguel(CapeVerdeIslands):2050MW(river,seawateroptions)89
Soduroy(Norway):2.5MWgeneration,5MWpumping,tobepairedwith10MWwind90
Ikaria(Greece):Smallconcept;wouldallowmuchhigherrenewablepenetration.91
SeawaterPumpedStorage
Theuseoftheoceanasalower
reservoirisapossibilityinmany
coastalareas.Thechiefadvantageis
thatonlyonereservoirthe
forebayneedstobeconstructed.
Thereisoneseawaterpumped
storageprojectinoperationinthe
world:theYanbaruprojectin
Okinawa(Figure34).A30MW
facility,itwascompletedin1999.
Theprojectrequiredthe
85
ARER2012,France2013,EDF2013
Antigua2014
87
Brown&Ward2014
88
Jamaica2013a,b
89
Pinaetal2008,Marifer2009
90
Norconsult2013
91
Caralis2009
86
Figure34.OkinawaJapanPumpedHydroStorageFacility(Saltwater)
39
developmentofspecialstainlesssteelalloys,alongwithheavydutyliningofthereservoirtoprevent
seawaterfrominfiltratingintotheground.Specialmeasureshadtobetakentopreventfoulingof
conduitsbymarinelife.
Seawaterpumpedstorageis
moreexpensivethanfreshwater
pumpedstorage.Thecostforthe
Okinawaprojectwasveryhigh
around$8,000/kWalthough
thatmightbeexpectedfora
relativelysmall,firstofitskind
facilitywithrelativelylowhead
(about300feet).Martifer
Renewables,whichhasstudied
newseawaterpumpedstorage
proposals,suggeststhatO&M
costswillberoughly3times
higherforseawaterprojects.92
Figure35.OkinawaJapanPumpedHydroStorageFacility(Saltwater)
Martifer'sworkhasalsoproduced
somecostestimatesfornewseawaterpumpedstorageschemes.Two40MWalternativesonSao
MiguelIsland(secondimage)wereestimatedatabout55millioneuroseach($80millionin2009),or
$2,000/kWwith4hoursofstorage.Aproposed50MWprojectinGuadeloupe,withonly50mofhead
anda60hectarereservoirfor1GWhofstorage(20hours),wasprojectedtohaveacostof250million
euros,orroughly$6,500/kW93.Alaterreferencehadareducedfigureof12hoursofstorageandsaid
costshadincreasedto340millionEuros,ormorethan$8,000/kW.94
PumpedStorageislikelythebestprimaryenergystorageoptionfortheU.S.VirginIslands
Pumpedstoragehydroisthebestproven,mostcosteffectivebulkenergystoragetechnology
availabletoday.
Worldwideoperatingcapacityismorethan~120,000megawattsand~120projects.
Projectlifetimesexceed60years.
Bestcombinationofflexibility,speed,efficiency,storagetime,andlifetimeamongenergy
storagetechnologies.
Newpumpedstoragehydroisveryefficient,ashighas83%,dependingonthesiteand
technology.
Supportinghighrenewableenergypenetrationrequiresmanyhoursofstoragenoother
technologyisassuitableforthispurposeonSt.ThomasandSt.Croix.
92
Martifer2009
ARER2012
94
France2013
93
40
BothSt.ThomasandSt.Croixofferseveralpotentialpumpedstoragesites(theresultsofour
preliminarysurveyarediscussedbelow).
SpecialConsiderationsforSmallerScalePumpedStorage
MinimizingUndergroundConstruction
Civilworksrepresentthegreatestcostelementofpumpedstorageplants.Theprimarystrategyfor
minimizingconstructioncost,regardlessofthescaleoftheproject,istousehigherheadsiteswith
shorterconduitdistances,existingreservoirswhereverpossible,andnaturallandformstominimizedam
sizesasshowninFigure36.Developmentatasmallerscale(e.g.,2050MW)entailseconomyofscale
penalties,sotheneedtominimizeconstructioncostsisevengreaterinthiscase.Thekeydifference
withthesmallerprojectswillbetoavoidundergroundconstructionthroughtheuseofaboveground
conduits(vs.tunnels)andtheuseofshaftpowerhouses(vs.caverns).
Figure36.BearSwampPHSReservoirs.Rowe,MA
AboveGroundConduits
Largerprojectstendtouseundergroundtunnelsbecauseattherequiredheadraceandtailrace
diameters(usually>10feet),itiscosteffectivetousetunnelboringmachines.Tunnelsprovideashorter
paththanabovegroundconduits,particularlyifpowerhousesareunderground,andhavenosurface
footprint.Thelargerprojectcanalsoabsorbthecostofgeotechnicalsiteinvestigationsthatare
necessarybeforetunnelinglayouts,liningrequirements,canbefinalized.
InthecaseofsmallerpumpedstorageforSt.ThomasandSt.Croix,noneoftheaboveconditionsapply.
Conduitdiameterswillbesignificantlysmaller.Powerhouseswillnotbelocateddeepunderground.
Tunnelingisnotoutofthequestion(thistobedeterminedduringengineeringinvestigations),and
indeed,someshallowtunnelingmaybeneededinsomecasestoprovidetheshortestpathbetween
reservoirs.However,itismorelikelythatabovegroundconduitswillbemosteconomicalinmostcases.
41
ShaftPowerhouses
Whilethemajorityofpumpedstorageprojectsuseundergroundcaverns,thereareanumberof
examplesofpumpedstorageprojectsusingshaftpowerhouses.Asindicatedbythename,shaft
powerhousesarelocatedinshaftsconstructedfromgroundleveldownward.TheseincludeFoyers
(Scotland),Avce(Slovenia),BajinaBasta(Serbia),Xixou(China),JiangsuShahe(China),Kalayaan
(Philippines),Wivenhoe(Australia),andtherecentlyconstructedOlivenhainHodgesprojectnearSan
Diego.Depthsforthesepowerhousesareasgreatas80meters.
Advantagesofshaftpowerhousesincludelowerconstructioncostandavoidanceoftheneedto
constructaccesstunnels,sinceingressandegressareaffordedbyelevators.Equipmentisloweredin
throughtheuseofgantrycranes.Onedisadvantagetotheuseofashaftpowerhouseisthatitplaces
greaterdistancebetweentheupperreservoirandtheturbines,whichincreasesresponsetime.
Thedeepertheshaft,themoreexpensiveitwillbetoconstruct,andthegreaterthegeotechnical
complexitytodealwith.Depthwillbedrivenbythesubmergencerequirementofthepumpturbinesor
pumps.Thisistheneedtopositionthepumpsacertaindistancebelowthelowestlevelofthelower
reservoirinordertoreducetheriskofcavitationdamage.Forconventional(singlespeed)pump
turbines,acommonratiobetweenmaximumheadandsubmergencerequirementis.10to.12.For
example,foramaximumheadof1,800feet,thepumpturbinesmighthavetobe180feetbelowthe
lowerreservoirminimum.
Inordertoavoidthisdegreeofsubmergence(andundergroundconstruction),therearestrategiestobe
consideredonboththeequipmentselectionandthecivilsides.Adjustablespeedpumpturbineswhich
wearelikelytoneedforanumberofreasonsdiscussedelsewhereinthissectionhavealower
submergencerequirementthanconventionalunits.Multistagepumps,whichmaybeusedintandem
withseparateturbines,havesignificantlylowersubmergencerequirements.Anadditional
considerationforplacingapowerhouseabovegroundorsemiabovegroundarenoiseandsurface
footprint.
AvailabilityofSmallerScaleReversiblePumpTurbines
Allpumpturbinesarecustomdesignedforagivenproject,andtherearenoengineeringobstaclesto
thedesignofsmallerunits.However,twooftheleadingmanufacturersofpumpturbinesappeartobe
preparingtooffernewdesignsforpumpturbinesspecificallytargetingthesmallerscalesapplicableto
ourcase.AsindicatedattheHydrovision2012conferenceandthroughrecentlypublishedtechnical
papers95,Andritzhasbeendesigningwhattheyrefertoasa"standardized,"adjustablespeedreversible
pumpturbinethatcanbemanufacturedatscalesassmallas20MW,andpossiblysmaller.Their
literaturereferstoaheadlimitofabout750feet(probablytoincreasethenumberofsiteswherethe
unitscouldwork),butthiswouldworkformanyofthecandidatesitesonSt.ThomasandSt.Croix.
95
Krennetal2013
42
Voithrecentlyannouncedacontractfora12MWgen/15MWpumping,threestagereversiblepump
turbinefortheRellswerkpumpedstorageprojectinAustria.Thesitehasamaximumheadof1,700
feet.Themultistagefeatureallowsshaftdepthtobeminimized.
NumberofUnits
Theuseofmoreunitscreatesawiderrangeofoperation.However,moreunitsoccupymorespaceon
thepowerhousefloor,thusnecessitatinglargerpowerhouses.Therearealsoboundtobeeconomyof
scalepenaltiesforsmallerunits.Therefore,ithasbeenassumedthata20MWprojectwilluse2units
(i.e.,2x10MW).Thesemaybe10MWreversiblepumpturbines,withadditionalpumpingcapacity
providedbysupplementalcentrifugalpumps,orseparate2x10MWFrancisturbinesand3x10MW
centrifugalpumps.
ResponseTimeandRangeofOperation
Thegoalofanybulkenergytechnologyistoofferthefastestpossibleresponserate,ramprate,and
rangeofoperation.Thereareseveralwaystomaximizethese,butasthegraphbelowindicates,only
variable(adjustable)speedpumpturbinesofferresponsetimesinthesubsecondrange.Alstomand
othershavecitedfiguresof150millisecondsfor"stepchanges"inoutputforadjustablespeedpump
turbines.
Inadditiontorespondingatthesubsecondrange,adjustablespeedpumpturbineshaveawiderrange
ofefficientoperationinbothgenerating(downto25%ofnominal)and(moresignificantly)pumping
mode(downto50%ofnominal).
Inthecaseofseparateturbinesandpumps,wewouldhavewiderangeofoperationingeneratingmode
butprobablyareducedrangeofoperationinpumpingmode,unlessalargernumberofsmallerpumps
wereused,whichwouldincreasecomplexityandcost.Onerecentcomparisonbetweenadjustable
speedandternarydesignssuggeststhatthelatterwouldbesignificantlyslowerinresponsetimefor
purposesofgridfrequencysupportduetoitsrelianceonphysicaladjustmentmechanisms(vs.power
electronicsforadjustablespeedpumpturbines).96
96
Nicoletetal2014
43
USVIPUMPEDSTORAGEPOTENTIAL
VI. USVI Pumped Storage Potential

SiteSelection
Identificationofpotentialpumpedstoragesitesusuallybeginswithananalysisofphysicalpotential;in
otherwords,theavailabilityofsufficienthead(verticaldrop)overashortenoughdistance.Thisisthe
primaryrequisiteforaworkablesite,andappearsfirstinthefollowingsetofscreeningcriteria:
Head(verticaldropthatdetermineshowmuchpowerwillbeavailableperunitofwatervolume;
generallyspeaking,thehigherthehead,thebetter)
LengthofConduit(thegreaterthelength,themoreexpensiveandlessresponsivethesystem)
Length:HeadRatio(ratioinfluencesengineeringfeasibilityandcost)
Civilrequirementsforreservoirconstruction(thesizeofdamsandamountofexcavation
requiredtocreatedesiredstoragevolume,whichstronglyaffectscost,isinturnstrongly
affectedbytopographyandgeology)
Geology&SeismicConsiderations(includesslopestability,strengthofrockfordams)
Constructability(includesaccesstothesite,availabilityof"laydown"areasforconstruction,soil
andgeologicstability,andavailabilityofsuitablematerialfordamsandreservoirs)
Water(availablewatersupplyforfillingthereservoirsandcompensatingforevaporationloss)
Environmental&LandUseConsiderations(impactsofconstructionandoperationonfloraand
fauna,particularlyifexistinglakesorriversoroceanareused;visualimpacts;compatibilitywith
existingandplannedlanduses)
Historical&CulturalConsiderations
ProximitytoTransmission(thelongerthedistancetotransmissionofsufficientvoltageand
capacity,thehigherthecostofinterconnectionandchallengeofroutingthegeneration
interconnectionline)
LocationinGrid(locationaffectsinterconnectionfeasibilityandreliabilitybenefits)
MethodologyUsedinthisStudy
ForpurposesofthisPreFeasibilityReport,weappliedonlythefirstseveralscreeningcriteriamore
specifically,atopographicscreeningforsitesthatcouldoffertherequisiteheadoverreasonable
distancewhileaffordingatleast240MWhofstoragepotential,or20MWwith12hoursofstorage.This
amountofdesiredstoragewasindicatedbytheportfoliooptimizationanalysis,whichisdescribed
below.
Toprovidethatlevelofstoragecapacityforthegivenamountofhead,welookedforsitesamenableto
reservoirconstructionwiththesmallestpossibledamsandreservoirs.Insomecases,natural
topographywouldallowforadaminavalley,ravine,ordepression.Insuchcases,wesoughttolimit
damheighttonomorethan100feet(inmostcasessignificantlylower).Forcutandfillartificial
reservoirsonrelativelyflatridgelinesoraplateau,aringembankmentheightlimitof40feetwasused,
whichcanbereducedwithmoreexcavation.Theactualheightsofdamsandringembankmentswill
needtobedeterminedthroughengineeringstudies.
44
USVIPUMPEDSTORAGEPOTENTIAL
Afterscreeningalargernumberofcandidates,threesitesonSt.ThomasandtwositesonSt.Croixwere
selectedforfurtherconsideration.Eachsitehasseveralalternativepossibleconfigurations.Theset
includesthefollowingfeatures:
Allsitesareclosedloop(twonewreservoirsinvolved).
Headsrangefrom550to1,500feet.
Length:Headratiosrangefrom3.0to8.0.
Sitesrequirefrom200to400acrefeetofwaterforinitialfill(over12yearperiod).
Noseawaterpumpedstorageoptionswereselectedatthispoint.Detailsonthecandidatesitescanbe
foundinConfidentialAppendixA.
Thenextlevelofanalysisforthepumpedstoragecandidatesiteswillinvolvemoredetailedscreening
forenvironmentalandlandusecompatibilityshowstoppers.Followingthis,reconnaissancelevel
engineeringandprefeasibilityengineeringreviewswouldfollow.Eachsubsequentlevelofengineering
reviewrefinestheworkingdesignconceptandthecostestimate.
Onceasiteisselectedtotakeforwardintodevelopment,itmaytaketwoyearstocomplete
engineering,environmental,andothertasks,andprobablytwoyearsforconstruction.
Watersourcingisanissuethatshouldbeaddressedearlyon.While200to400acrefeetisnotalarge
amountofwaterinalargersystem,itisnotaninsignificantvolumeonSt.ThomasandSt.Croix.
PumpedStorageCost
Asmentionedearlier,pumpedstoragecapitalcostishighlydependentontheuniquecircumstancesof
theprojectandsite.The"average"rangeforlargerprojectsisbetween$1,500and$3,000/kW,with
storagetimesrarelyashighasthe20hoursspecifiedhere.Giventhesmallernatureoftheprojectsin
thiscase,thelocation,andthecharacteristicsofthesitesreviewed,weareusinganovernightcost
figureof$3,500/kW.PumpedstorageO&Mcostswereassumedtobe$20/kWyr.
45
RENEWABLESUPPLYMODELING
VII. Renewable Supply Modeling

Methodology
Inordertogainabetterunderstandingofwhatahighrenewableportfoliocoupledwithstoragemight
dotomeettheelectricpowerneedsoftheU.S.VirginIslands,weusedaproprietarysetofworksheets
developedbyGridflexEnergyspecificallydesignedtomodelthiscombination.Themodelusesafull
year'sworthofhourlywindorotherrenewablepoweroutputfigures,inputparametersforstorage
capabilities,efficiency,minimumpumpingandgeneratinglevels,andotherfactors,andfirmoutput(or
firmload)parametersthatneedtobemet.
Outputsshowtheamountofrenewableenergythatwascycledthroughstorage,theamountofenergy
thatmightexceedstoragelevels(andthusbesubjecttocurtailment),andthedegreetowhichthe
combinationmeets(orfallsshortof)thecontractorloadrequirements.Theresultingoptimized
proportionsofvariousresourcesarethenfedintoproformasforeachresourcetype,whereenergy
costsarecalculated.
SelectionofPortfolio
Theselectionofenergyresourcestoincludeintheportfoliothatwasmodeledwasdrivenbythe
following:
Realistic&conservativeavailabilityoftheresource
Contributionoftheresourcetomeetingload&reliabilityneeds
Costoftheresource
Bestfitoftheresourcewithinthelargermix,asdeterminedbypreliminarymodeling
Element1:Wind:LargestsingleelementbynewcapacityforSt.Thomas;2ndlargestforSt.Croix
InthecaseofSt.Thomas,assumedmajorityoffshore,minorityonshore.
Element2:SolarPV:LargestelementbynewcapacityforSt.Croix;2ndlargestforSt.Thomas
OnSt.Croix,concentratedintheareaoftheHOVENSAplant;onSt.Thomas,more
distributedacrossloadareas.
Element3:Biomass:Baseloadcontributor.
Assumedforstudypurposestobelimitedto10MWonSt.Croix;4MWisassumedforSt.
Thomas.
Element4:WastetoEnergy:Baseloadcontributor.
5MWceilingassumedforeachofSt.ThomasandSt.Croix.
Element5:Conventional:Levelofconventionalretained(assumedLPGafterconversion)basedon
magnitudeofneedforbackuppowerandenergy.
46
Followingintegrationofwind,solar,biomass,&WTEinputs,theamountofconventional
generationretainedwasdrivenbytheresultingshortfallinabilitytomeetload.Itwas
assumedthatretainedunitswouldcontinuetooperatewithupgrades.
Element6:PumpedStorage:MWandMWhlevelsdrivenbymodeledneed.
Generationandpumpingcapacitiescanbeadjustedseparatelyundertheassumptionthat
evenifreversiblepumpturbinesareused,additionalpumpingcapacitycanbeadded.It
shouldbekeptinmind,however,thatconduitswouldhavetobesizedformaximum
pumpingflow,ratherthanmaximumgeneratingflow.
StoragetimeinMWhwasdrivenbyneedforreducingcurtailmentwhilebeingabletomeet
firmdemand,withinlimitsofcostviability(i.e.,onecanbuild100hoursofstorage,butit
wouldbemuchmoreexpensivetodoso,evenwithahighheadsite).
Averageroundtripefficiencyof80%wasused.
Element7:Battery:Moderateamountforregulationservices,supporttootherelementsintheportfolio.
Itwasassumedthatwithpumpedstorageprovidingthegreatestflexiblegenerationand
storagecontribution,batterycapacityinMWcouldbelimitedto5MW(about10%ofpeak
loadinSTXand8%inSTT)andashortdurationofstorage(15to60minutes).
Batterycapacitywasnotcountedtowardportfolioloadservingcapacity,butshouldbein
future,morerefinedmodeling.
Batteryutilizationratesandlosseswerenotmodeled.
EnergyInputs
WindOutputCalculations
Inordertomodelandmodifythecontributionofwindenergytothesystem,weusedrecenthourly
windoutputprojectionsfromtheregion.Thebestdatarecordavailabletouswasthe2013hourly
recordfromBovoniPoint,St.Thomas,USVI.ThisdatasetwasreleasedearlierthisyearbyNREL,who
hasbeenupdatingtheresults.Note.Longford(St.Croix)dataisavailableandshallbeusedinthe
FeasibilityStudy.
TheBovoniPointdatawasrecordedatalevelof55meters,whichwescaledupto85meters(the
minimumhubheightfortoday'slargerturbines).Weusedaverymodestwindshearfactortoaccount
fortheincreaseinwindvelocityoverthatheightincrease,undertheassumptionthatalargeportionof
thewindcapacitywouldbeoffshore.
Followingrevisiontothewindspeeddata,weappliedthehourlywindspeeddatatoacalculatorthat
canrefertothepowercurvesforanynumberofwindturbinesinthedatabase.WeselectedtheVestas
V1123.0,whichisa112meterturbinethatisavailableforbothonshoreandoffshoreuse.Thisturbine
isavailablewithClassIIspecifications,whichrepresentsmediumturbulenceandwindload,butoffersa
highcapacityfactorinamoderatewindenvironment.Highercapacityfactorisadesiredvalueforwind
47
projectsdesignedtobepairedwithstorageformeetingfirmloadneeds.97Thepowercurvetablewas
derivedfroma2011Vestastechnicaldocument.98
Airdensityhasasignificanteffectonwindturbineoutput,anditisdrivenbyelevation,temperature,
andhumidity.Normally,asealevelwindprojectwouldbeassumedtohavethehighestairdensity.
However,weadjustedthedensitydownwardsomewhat(from1.225kg/m^3to1.175m^3)toaccount
forhigherhumidityintheregion.99
A12%lossfactorwasapplied(factorsinwakelosses,planned&forcedoutage,electricallosses)tothe
resultingpoweroutputfigures.Theresult,usingthisparticularturbine,wasanetannualcapacityfactor
of38.4%,whichisanexcellentenergyoutputlevelforwindprojects.Thisnumbermatchesthemost
recentfiguresseenfromNREL,accordingtowhichnetcapacityfactorsbasedontheVestasV1001.8
mayexceed40%atBovoniPoint.
Itshouldbekeptinmindthattheactualturbineselectedforusemaybedifferent,anddifferent
turbinesmaybeselectedforoffshorevs.onshoreuse.Micrositingwilldetermineactuallossfactorsto
apply.Alsoveryimportantwillbethedifferencebetweenmeasurementstakenatasingletowerversus
theoutputofanumberofturbinesspreadoutacrossawiderarea,particularlyifsomeofthecapacityis
onshoreandsomeoffshore.
SolarPVOutputCalculations
InordertocalculatesolarPVcontributiontotheenergymix,wereliedonNASA'sRETScreendatabase
andcalculatoranearbylocation(Martinique).Singleaxistrackingofferedasignificantenergyoutput
advantageoverfixedtilt,sothisoptionwasselected.Theresultinghourlyfigureswereenteredintothe
worksheet.Netannualcapacityfactor,basedonACcapacity,was25.8%.Inordertoerronthe
conservativeside,wereducedthisby5%.
Biomass&WastetoEnergy
ForSt.Thomas,wastetoenergywasenteredat5MWofnameplatecapacity;4MWofbiomasswas
allocated.ForSt.Croix,wastetoenergyandbiomassweresetat5MWand10MW,respectively,
respectively(forreasonsdescribedinPortfolioSelection).90%annualcapacityfactorswereassumedfor
thesebaseloadresources.
OtherModelAssumptions
Forsimplicity'ssake,modelingwasbasedonmeetingthecurrentpeakloads,whosegrowthis
assumedtobemoderatedbothbyeconomicconditionsandenergyefficiencygains.Fordistant
futureprojections,someadjustmentinsupplysideratioswouldneedtobemadetofactorin
resourcespecificlimits(e.g.,onecan'tassumethatsolarcapacitywilldoublejustbecausethe
loaddoubles).
97
Succaretal2012
Vestas2011b
99
Chadee&Clarke2013
98
48
Thehourlyloadprofilewasderivedbasedonhourlygenerationfiguresfor20132014as
providedbyWAPA.
ThedefaultsupplyscenariowasbasedontheUSVIRoadMap,alongwiththeestimated30%
reductioninfuelcostduetoconversiontopropane.Figureswerealsoadjustedtofitmore
recentcostfiguresforsolarandwind,sothatthecomparisonbetweenthe"RoadMap"scenario
andIEI'sHighRenewablescenariowouldbemore"applestoapples"innature.
ThecostoftheHighRenewablesupplycomparedwiththeassumedRoadMapscenariowas
calculatedaftertechnicalintegration(ofrenewableelementsandstorage)wasoptimized.
ModelingtheBaselineScenario
TheBaselineScenarioisbasedontheUSVIRoadMapasinitiallydevelopedin2011.Someofthe
assumptionsweremodifiedbasedonactualexperienceandmorerecentdata,sothatthecomparison
betweentheBaselineScenarioandtheIEIHighRenewablescenariowouldbemore"applestoapples."
Itshouldbenotedthatourterm"BaselineScenario"isnotsynonymouswiththeterm"BaseCase"as
usedintheRoadMapdocuments,althoughitisbasedinpartonthatbasecase,whichwasthestrategy
selectedforpursuitintheUSVI.Bythesametoken,theterm"IEIHighRenewable"shouldnotbe
confusedwiththehighrenewablecaseusedintheRoadMapdocuments.
Assumptions100
ThesameloaddatausedfortheHighRenewablemodelswasassumedfortheBaseline
scenario.
FullLPG(propane)conversionwasassumed;noconversiontoLNGwasassumed(basedonthe
issuesdiscussedintheConversionsectionabove).
Nonewconventionalwasadded;theassumptionwasthatexistingunitswouldcontinuetobe
operated.
A30%reductioninfuelcostover2013figureswascreditedtotheBaselinescenario(basedon
WAPAestimates,asdiscussedearlierinthisreport).
TherenewableportfolioundertheBaselinescenarioconsistedofthefollowing:
o ForSt.Thomas,12MWofwind,6MWofPVsolar,and5MWofWTE.
o ForSt.Croix,10MWofwind,6MWofPVsolar,5MWofWTE,and7MWofbiomass.
Theeconomicresultsofthiscombination,asmodeledbyIEI,isdescribedbelow,alongwiththe
economicresultsfortheHighRenewablemodels.
100
USVIRoadMapAnalysisAssumptions
49
Figure37.USVIEnergySourcesRoadMap
TechnicalResults:HighRenewableModelsforSt.Thomas/St.JohnandSt.Croix
(1)TechnicalResults:St.Thomas/St.John
50
11%ofenergyoutputwascycledthroughstorage.With20%losses,thismeansthatonly2%ofenergy
waslostthroughstorage.
Figure38.Wind/PVDestination St.Thomas
Figure39.CapacityPortfolio
St.ThomasREBase
51
Figure40.Energysources St.ThomasREBase
Figure41illustratestheenergy
storagereservesthroughoutthe
year.
Comparedwithothercasestudies
performedbyGridflex,thisrangeof
utilizationsuggeststhattheamount
ofstorageisfairlyoptimized.
Curtailment
Curtailmentistheforcedreduction
ofoutput.Allcurtailmentinthiscase
wasassumedtobeassignedtothe
windresource,althoughitcould
Figure41.WorkingEnergyinStorage
theoreticallybesharedwiththe
"baseload"resources,dependingon
theeconomics.Itisdesirabletominimizecurtailmentbecausethefullcostoftherenewableresource
hastobecoveredregardlessofwhetherenergyisproducedornot.
Inatraditionalgridconnectedsystem,windorsolaroutputthatexceededbothcontractedneedand
storageavailabilitycouldstillbedischargedtothegrid,albeitatwhateverratethemarketwouldpayfor
it.Intheislandedcase,curtailmentistheonlyalternativetosimplyaddingmorestorage.Themodel
indicatedthatsignificantlymorestoragewouldhavetobeadded,atsignificantcost,withonlymoderate
reductionincurtailment.
Inthecaseasoptimizedtodate,curtailmentwasheldto13%.Furtheroptimizationshouldreducethis
figure.
ShortfallsandtheNeedtoRetain
ConventionalGenerationforBackup
TheSt.Thomascasewiththe
portfolioasoptimizedtodateleftus
withanannualgeneratedenergy
shortfallofnet20%ofdelivered
energy.Theaccompanyinggraph
titled"LoadServingShortfalls"
illustratesthemagnitudeofshortfalls
byMWthroughouttheyear.Itisnot
coincidentalthatthegreatest
concentrationofshortfalloccursin
52
Figure42.LoadServingShortfallsSt.Thomas
thefall,whichisthelowestwindenergyproductionseason.
Theassumptionwasthatthisenergyshortfallwouldbemadeupbyconventionalgenerationretainedin
theportfolio,althoughtheprimarypurposeforthatretentionistomeetingpeakpowershortfalls.An
analysisofthefrequencyandmagnitudeofshortfallsindicatesthatwhilethereisamaximumshortfall
of59MW,themeanandmedianaremuchlower:20MWand18MW,respectively(thiscanbeinferred
fromthegraphaboveaswell).Thefrequencyofexceeding20MWofshortfallwas5%,andthe
frequencyofexceeding40MWofshortfallwasonly3%.
Theaboveresultsledtotheinclusionof59MWofretainedconventionalgenerationforSt.Thomas,
althoughthatgenerationwouldhavetherelativelylowannualcapacityfactorofonly15%(which
resemblesthatofapeaker,ratherthanitsoriginalcombinationofpeaker,intermediate,andbaseload
functions).Thisshouldbeconsideredonlyaminimumlevelofwhatconventionalgenerationmayneed
toberetained,however.Additionalcapacitymaybedeterminedtobeneededtomeetreserve
requirements.
(2)TechnicalResults:St.Croix
18%ofenergyoutputwascycledthroughstorage.With20%losses,thismeansthatonly4%ofenergy
waslostthroughstorage.
53
Figure43.Wind/PVDestination St.Croix
Figure44.CapacityPortfolio St.CroixREBase
Figure45.EnergySources St.CroixREBase
54
Curtailment
Curtailmentistheforcedreductionofoutput.Allcurtailmentinthiscasewasassumedtobeassignedto
thewindresource,althoughitcouldtheoreticallybesharedwiththe"baseload"resources,depending
ontheeconomics.Itisdesirabletominimizecurtailmentbecausethefullcostoftherenewable
resourcehastobecoveredregardlessofwhetherenergyisproducedornot.
Inatraditionalgridconnectedsystem,windorsolaroutputthatexceededbothcontractedneedand
storageavailabilitycouldstillbedischargedtothegrid,albeitatwhateverratethemarketwouldpayfor
it.Intheislandedcase,curtailmentistheonlyalternativetosimplyaddingmorestorage.Themodel
indicatedthatsignificantlymorestoragewouldhavetobeadded,atsignificantcost,withonlymoderate
reductionincurtailment.Inthecaseasoptimizedtodate,curtailmentwasheldto13%.Further
optimizationshouldreducethisfigure.
ShortfallsandtheNeedtoRetainConventionalGenerationforBackup
TheSt.Croixcasewiththeportfolioasoptimizedtodateleftuswithanannualgeneratedenergy
shortfallofnet9%ofdeliveredenergy.Theaccompanyinggraphtitled"LoadServingShortfalls"
illustratesthemagnitudeof
shortfallsbyMWthroughoutthe
year.Itisnotcoincidentalthat
thegreatestconcentrationof
shortfalloccursinthefall,which
isthelowestwindenergy
productionseason.
Theassumptionwasthatthis
energyshortfallwouldbemade
upbyconventionalgeneration
retainedintheportfolio,
althoughtheprimarypurposefor
thatretentionistomeetingpeak
powershortfalls.Ananalysisof
Figure46.LoadServingShortfallsSt.Croix
thefrequencyandmagnitudeof
shortfallsindicatesthatwhilethereisamaximumshortfallof31MW,themeanandmedianaremuch
lower:10MWand10MW,respectively(thiscanbeinferredfromthegraphaboveaswell).The
frequencyofexceeding20MWofshortfallwas5%,andthefrequencyofexceeding30MWofshortfall
wasonly1%.
Theaboveresultsledtotheinclusionof31MWofretainedconventionalgenerationforSt.Croix,
althoughthatgenerationwouldhavetherelativelylowannualcapacityfactorofonly9%(which
resemblesthatofapeaker,ratherthanitsoriginalcombinationofpeaker,intermediate,andbaseload
functions).AswithSt.Thomas,itshouldbenotedthatthis31MWshouldbeviewedonlyasaminimum;
additionalretainedcapacitymaybeneededforadequatereserves.
55
ECONOMICANALYSIS
VIII. Economic Analysis

CapitalCost&O&MInputs
Wind
SolarPV
Biomass
WastetoEnergy
PumpedStorage
Battery
Existing
Conventional
CapitalCost
$/kW*
$4,000offshore/
$2,500onshore
$2,500
$5,000
$8,000
$3,500
$1,200
$300***
FixedO&M
$/kWYr**
$35onshore
$50offshore
$25
$120
$350
$20
$10
$40inBase
$52inHighR.
Notes
Recentindustrystudies101indicatethatsingleaxis
trackingcostsmaybeunder$2,000/kW.
Fuelcostof$20/MWhwasalsoused.
O&Mfigureincludesfeedsupply
Capexbasedonshortdurationstorage.
O&MfigurederivedfromWAPAfigures,n/ifuel;
Figureincreasedby30%forHighRenewable
modelduetoincreasedrampingcosts.
*Capitalcostfigureswerederivedfromavarietyofrecentsources,withmostcitedintheprevioussectionon
portfoliooptions.Unlessotherwisenotedinthisdocument,figurescamefromWECC2014,EIA2013,orCEC2014.
**MosttechnologiescombineFixed&VariableO&Mfigures.
***Forupgradesonagingunits.
FinancialAssumptions
9%unleveredIRRtargetwith100%equityfinancing.(Inreality,mostelementsoftheportfolio
wouldbedebt/equityfinanced.100%equitywasusedforeaseofcomparingreturnsperenergy
price.)
25yeareconomiclivesforalltechnologies(forfinancingpurposes;pumpedstoragelifefar
exceedsthis;batterylifeisshorter)
Corporatetaxrateof30%wasapplied.
15yearsto90%depreciation(willrequirerefinementinfutureanalyses)
Marketpriceescalation2%(fuel);O&Mescalation2.5%
Propertytax,insurance,landcostsbasedoncommonmultipliers.
TransmissionLosses
IthasbeenreportedthattransmissionlossesonSt.Thomasareexpectedtobereducedto5%ofenergy
salesonSt.Thomasand7.2%inSt.Croixby2016.102Thesefigureswereappliedasacostpenaltytoboth
theHighRenewablemodelsandtotheBaselinemodels.Whiledistributedgenerationcanresultina
reductionoftransmissionanddistributionlosses,103wedidnotcreditanyadvantageinthisregardto
101
Lazard2014
WAPA2012a
103
Castalia2012
102
56
ECONOMICANALYSIS
theHighRenewablemodelsfortheUSVIbecauseofthepossibilitythatmuchofthenewPVwouldbe
centrallylocatedratherthandistributed.Futurestudieswillneedtobeperformedtodetermine
potentialgains.
CO2Penalty
Whilethereisnotconsistencyinpricingnoragreementonhowthevalueofgreenhousegasemissions
shouldbequantified,thereisamarketforCO2allowancesorcredits.Giventhedirectionofpolicyand
markets,wefeltthatitwasreasonabletoincludeafairlyconservativefigureof$15/ton104toapplyasa
costtothefossilbasedsupply.CO2outputwascalculatedforeachMWhbasedonaveragereported
heatratesofWAPAunitsandfiguresfortheCO2valueofLPG(propane)perGJ.
ImpactonElectricPowerSupplyCost
Nominallevelizedcostsforeachresourceintheportfoliowascalculatedandweightedbycontribution
toenergysupply,withadjustmentmadeforresourceelementsthatdon'tproduceoriginalenergy
(pumpedstorageandbattery).Theweightedfiguresweresummedandthenadjustedfortransmission
losstoproducethefinalsupplycostfortheHighRenewableportfolios.Thesewerethencomparedwith
thecostoftheBaselinescenario(which,toreiterate,istheRoadMapscenarioandnotthepresentday
portfolioandfueltype).Asindicatedonthefollowingtwopages,thecostdifferencesbetweenthe
highrenewableplusstoragesupplybaseandbaselineprojectedsupplybaseareclearlydramatic.
104
Synapse2013
57
ECONOMICANALYSIS
(1)St.ThomasHighRenewableModelvs.BaseCase
58
ECONOMICANALYSIS
(2)St.CroixHighRenewableModelvs.BaseCase
59
ECONOMICANALYSIS
CombinedEconomicResults,AllUSVI
TheweightedaveragenominallevelizedcostforthecombinedHighRenewable+StoragemodelsforSt.
ThomasandSt.Croixwas$242.75/MWh.
TheweightedaveragenominallevelizedcostforthecombinedprojectedBaselinescenarioforSt.
ThomasandSt.Croixwas$322.36/MWh.
ThepercentageUSVIwidecostsavingsovertheBaselinescenariocreatedbyadoptingtheHigh
Renewable+Storageapproachis24.7%.
60
ENVIRONMENTAL&OTHERBENEFITS
IX. Environmental and Other Benefits

CO2Reduction
ThereductioninCO2emissionsintheHighRenewablesupplymodelvs.thedefaultsupplycanbe
calculateddirectlythroughthereductioninfossilgeneration.Thereductionfrom556,105MWhof
propanegeneratedenergytoabout103,705MWhtranslatestoareductionof417,000metrictons
annually,or8.3millionmetrictonsover20years.
TheUSVIandotherislandterritoriesandnationsrecognizewelltheimportanceofslowing,stopping,or
mitigatingtheeffectsofgreenhousegasdrivenglobalwarming.Themostobviousdangersarerisingsea
levelsthatwillbedestructivetocoastlines,coupledwithmorefrequentandmoredamagingtropical
stormsthatcompoundtheproblemofahighersealevel.Thetourismindustrywouldbeimpacted
directly.Otherprojectedeffectsincludereducedrainfallandnegativeeffectsonnativefloraand
fauna.105
ThecontributionoftheUSVI'sCO2reductiontoareducedriskofcatastrophicdamageduetoglobal
warmingwouldberelativelysmall.Nevertheless,thecommitmentofislandterritoriesandnationsto
reducinggreenhousegasemissionsrepresentstheleadershiprolethattheyaretakingtothechange
courseofevents.Demonstratingthatashifttoapredominantlyrenewableenergysupplyisboth
technicallyfeasibleandfinanciallydesirableforsystemsofthesizeasthoseonSt.ThomasandSt.Croix
couldbolsterandinspireparalleleffortsinnationssmallandlarge.Takentogetherwitheffortsglobally,
theUSVI'seffortscouldmakeasignificantdifference.
OtherEmissionsReductions
Fossilfuelcombustionreleasesmorethanjustcarbondioxide.Althoughnewerunitsmayberelatively
efficient,theyproduceNOx(nitrousoxides),SOx(sulphuroxides),carbonmonoxide,andPM10(fine
particulatematter)whosereductionresultsinabenefittolocalairquality.Thisbenefitshouldbe
quantifiedinthecontextoftheexistingpowerstationsonSt.ThomasandSt.Croix.
OtherBenefits
OthereconomicbenefitstoconversiontoaHighRenewableEnergySupplyfortheUSVImayincludethe
following:
EconomicStimulusfromLowerCostofEnergy
A25%reductioninthecostofelectricitysupplyovereventhecleanerthanpresentRoadMap
trajectory,iftranslatedintoareductioninretailrates,wouldmeanapproximately$60millionannually
backintothehandsofUSVIresidentsandbusinesses.Thisisnotaninsignificantlevelofeconomic
stimulus.
105
CARIBSAVE2012
61
ENVIRONMENTAL&OTHERBENEFITS
JobCreation
Multiplegenerationsitesusingmultipletechnologieswillrequireasignificantsupportteam.The
numberofjobsthatwouldbecreated,andthedirectandindirecteconomicbenefitsassociatedwith
thatjobcreation,wouldbesignificantandshouldbethesubjectofadetailedeconomicimpactstudy.
BasedontheJobSectorAnalysiscompletedbytheRenewable&AppropriateEnergyLaboratory106,job
creationwasmeasuredinfulltimeequivalents(FTE)perMWofRenewableEnergyinstalled.Thiswas
analyzedforutilityscaleanddistributedsolarPV,onshoreandoffshorewind,biofuel(including
agriculturalcultivation),wastetoenergy(includinggenerationofrefusederivedfuel),andhydropower.
Thepreliminaryreviewsuggeststhatapproximately2,600FTEjobswouldbecreatedbynewrenewable
energytechnologyconstructionandinstallation(C&I)(~850FTEperyearfor3years)andapproximately
280FTEpermanentjobswouldbecreatedforoperationsandmaintenance(O&M).Theseestimatesare
fordirectjobsanddonotincludeindirectorinducedemployment.Renewableenergysectorliterature
estimates0.78indirectjobsforeveryFTEofdirectemployment.
InsulationfromFuelPriceUncertaintyandPriceShocks
Whilestrategieslikefuelpricehedgingcanincreaseshorttermpredictability,fuelpricesareinherently
volatile.TheUSVIhaveexperiencedthisfirsthandinrecentyears,aswhenoilpricesmorethandoubled
betweenDecember2006andJuly2008.Anysignificantshifttorenewableresourceshasapowerful
insulativeeffectagainstfuturepriceshocks.
IncreasedRevenuefromEcotourism
Areputationasan"almostallrenewableenergy"tourismdestinationcouldprovideU.S.VirginIslands
tourismwithanewdraw,buildinguponitscurrentandplannedecotourismbase.
106
RAEL.2012
62
RENEWABLESUPPLYPLACEMENT
X. Renewable Supply Placement

Thissectionwilloutlineconsiderationsforthepossiblelocationanddistributionoftherenewablesupply
portfoliomodeledinthepresentstudy.
OnshoreWind
ForSt.Thomas,theobviouslocationforonshorewindwouldbetheBovoniPointpeninsula.Thewind
resourceforthesitehasbeenstudied,andtheareaissemiindustrialized.ForSt.Croix,thetargeted
amountofwindissmaller.TheHOVENSArefineryareamayaccommodatesufficientcapacity,aloneor
incombinationwithotherwellexposedareaswhereturbinesitingmaybeacceptable.
OffshoreWind
Offshorewindwouldbelocatedoffthesoutherncoasts,withinthecoastalshelf(i.e.,within
approximately2milesofshore).Thedominanceofeasterlywindwouldallowforanefficientarray
layout.Giventherelativeproximitytoshore,thearray(orarrays)shouldbelocatedwherevisibilityfrom
existingtownsanddevelopmentswillbeminimalwhilestillallowingaccesstoshoreforinterconnection
tothetransmissionsystem.
Figure47.PotentialOffshoreWindSites St.Thomas
Theredlinesinthemapsindicatetheestimatedextentofwaterlessthan100feetindepth.Eachofthe
greenlinesrepresentsarowof4x3MWturbines,or12MW.
63
RENEWABLESUPPLYPLACEMENT
Figure48.PotentialOffshoreWindSItes St.Croix
SolarPV
If3to5MWstationswereused,6to10siteswouldbeneeded,eachneeding1525acres.Thesewould
ideallybedistributedamongloadcentersontheperipheryoftheisland,whereinsolationisgreatest.As
previouslydiscussed,theHOVENSAsiteonSt.CroixshouldbeinvestigatedduringtheFeasibilityStudy.
Biomass
PresumedbasedonthecurrentTibbarEnergyplan,whereinthefacilityislocatedwestoftheAnguilla
landfillinSt.Croix.Energytobegeneratedfromwoodybiomassandtobecultivatedonapproximately
1,000acresonSt.CroixandSt.Thomas.
WastetoEnergy
PresumedtobelocatednearthetwowastedisposalsitesBovoniinSt.ThomasandAnguillainSt.
Croix.
PumpedStorage
Sitingwillbedrivenbymeritasthecandidatesetisnarroweddownbyenvironmental,landuse,
technical,andcostfactors.PotentialsitesaredescribedinConfidentialAppendixA.
Battery
Batteriescanbedistributedthroughoutloadcentersaswell,ideallyatsubstations,andpossiblynearPV
sites.
64
TRANSITIONTOARENEWABLE+STORAGEBASEFORTHEUSVI
XI. Transition to a Renewable Energy + Storage Base for the U.S.

Virgin Islands
GeneralConsiderations
Makingthetransitionfromthecurrentsupplybasetothehighrenewablesupplybase,complemented
bystorageandconventionalbackup,isalongtermendeavor.Thepaceatwhichthetransitioncanbe
achievedwillbedrivenbythefollowingfactors:
Paceofregulatory,legislative,&marketadoption
Paceoffeasibilitystudies
Paceofadvancedstudies,siteselectionandsiteprocurement
Paceofdevelopment,procurement,andconstruction
Retirementofpartoftheexistingbaseandminimizationofstrandedinvestment
DevelopmentoftheNewBase
Inadditiontothequestionofretirementoftheexistingbase,theothersideofthecoininconsidering
thetransitiontotherenewable+storagebaseisthepaceatwhichtherenewableenergyandstorage
plantcanbedeveloped.Thedifferentelementstothenewsupplywouldhavesomewhatdifferent
developmenttimelinesaswell.Thenotesbelowfeedintothetimelinechart.
Solar
ThesolarresourceoftheU.S.VirginIslandsiswellunderstood,andthetechnologyisreadilyavailable.
Constructiontimesareshortaslittleasthreemonthsfora5MWproject.Therefore,thepaceof
developmentofsolarPVwouldbedrivenlargelybysiteselection,procurement,permitting.Thiscanbe
doneprojectbyprojectinserialfashion,orpursuedsimultaneouslyformultiplesites(althougheach
sitemayhavedifferentissuesorcomplicationsrequiringadjustmentsinschedule).
Wind
ThewindresourceatBovoniPointisnowbetterunderstood,withconsistentmeasurementstakenat
closetohubheight.Itisreasonabletoexpectthattheresourcewillbesimilarinsimilarlyexposedsites
ofSt.Croix.However,becausewindenergyoutputishighlysensitivetowindvelocity,longtermwind
studiesareessentialonasitebysitebasis.AswithsolarPV,constructiontimesforonshorewind
projectsalsorelativelyshort,e.g.,6months.Thelongerpartofthedevelopmenttimelinewillbeproject
siting.
Offshorewindwillrequirealongerdevelopmenttimebecauseoftheadditionalstudiesrequiredto
thoroughlyunderstandsiting,environmental,andvisualconsiderations.Constructiontimeswillalsobe
65
longerupto30daysperturbine107,althoughtheproximitytoshoreinthecaseofSt.ThomasandSt.
Croixmayreducethis.
Thetimelinebelowassumesthatfullbuildoutofwindandsolarwouldnotoccuruntilthepumped
storageisready.
Biomass&WastetoEnergy
TheTibbarprojectonSt.Croixisinanadvancedstageofdevelopmentandexpectedtobeonlineby
2016.Evenifadifferentbiomassprojectweretomaterialize,itcouldbebuiltonthesitingandfuel
supplyworkdonefortheTibbarproject.Forwastetoenergy,priorexperiencesuggeststhatsignificant
timeshouldbeallowedfordesign&permitting.ThetimelinebelowshowsWTEcomingonlinein2020.
PumpedStorage
Pumpedstoragesiteselectiontimeisnotalongleadtimeitem,butcarefulsitingandengineeringare
crucial.Constructiontimeisalsofairlysignificant,withatleasttwoyearsforsmallerscaleprojects,
possiblylonger.Thetimelinebelowassumesthatpumpedstoragecomesonlinein2020.
BatteryStorage
Amongtheadvantagesofbatterystorageisitsmodularityandspeedofplacement.Thetimelinebelow
pacesbatteryinstallationataboutthesamerateassolarPV.
PaceofTransitioninRelationtoCurrentGoals
ThefeasiblepaceoftransitiondescribedherewouldexceedtheRoadMapbasedcommitmenttoa60%
reductioninfossilfueluseby2025.
107
CrownEstate2013
66
67
NEXTSTEPS
XII. Next Steps

Thepresentstudywaslimitedinscopeanddepth.Itspurposewastoprovideapreliminaryassessment
ofthetechnicalandeconomicviabilityoftheU.S.VirginIslandstransitioningfromtheircurrent,nearly
allfossilelectricgenerationbasetoa"highrenewable"energysupply,supportedbytheuseofbulk
energystorage.
Asindicatedthroughoutthisdocument,awiderangeoffollowupstudiesareneededtobuilduponthe
findingsofthisreport.Thesestudieswouldbestbeconductedinanintegratedfashioninorderto
continueanemphasisonthemostefficientandeffectivepathtotransition.
Summarizingtheelementsofanintegratedfeasibilitystudy,theywouldinclude(butnotbelimitedto)
thefollowing:
Revisionandrefinementoftheportfoliomodelinganalysisusingislandspecifichourlyload
profiles,wind,andsolarPVdata,withcontinuedoptimizationoftheresourcebalance;
Specificwind,PV,pumpedstorage,andotherprojectsitingstudies,includinglanduse,
environmental,engineering,andcostassessments;
Aspecificstudyofoffshorewindpotentialandsiting,withaspecialemphasisonvisual,
environmental,turbineselection,andcostfactors;
ContinuedstudyofWastetoEnergyprospectsandtheirlikelycontributiontotherenewable
supplymix;
Systemimpactstudies,includingmodelingand/oranalysisofpowerquality,loadbalancing,
transmissionlosses,andsupplyreliabilityandcoordinationwithahighrenewable+storage(+
fossil)base;
Economicimpact,includeddirectandindirectbenefitsaswellasstrandedinvestment;
ConsiderationofanyrequirementsforreformtotheUSVI'selectricpowersectornecessaryto
allowforatransitionoftheproposedscaletotakeplace.
DevelopmentCommitments
IslandEnergyInnovationsseekstosupporttheU.S.VirginIslandsgovernment,andWAPA,infulfilling,
andexceeding,theirrenewableenergygoals.IEIisalsopreparedtotakeasactivearoleindevelopment
oftherenewableenergyportfolioasthemarketwillallow.Atthesametime,IEIrecognizesthat
successfulenergydevelopmentrequireslongtermcommitmentsandrolesthatwillattractinvestment
inpredevelopment,development,constructionandoperations.Ofparticularimportancearethepre
developmentanddevelopmentstages,becausetheserepresentthestagesofhighestriskand
uncertainty.
68
NEXTSTEPS
Securingaformalandcontractualroleintherenewableenergyandenergystoragedevelopment
processintheU.S.VirginIslandsthroughdevelopmentconcessions,eitherfromtheutilitysector,the
government,orboth,willneedtobeanimmediatepriorityforIEIandshouldbeanimmediatepriority
fortheU.S.VirginIslands.
69
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A Renewable Energy and Storage Base For The United States Virgin Islands, October 2014

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A Renewable Energy and Storage Base For The United States Virgin Islands, October 2014

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ARenewableEnergy+StorageBase

III. Renewable Energy Potential in the US Virgin Islands

Figure 16andFigure 1735showthehistoricaltrackofmajorhurricanesthroughtheCaribbeansince

IV. Maintaining Grid Stability and Reliability of Supply

V. Energy Storage: Uses and Alternatives

VI. USVI Pumped Storage Potential

VII. Renewable Supply Modeling

VIII. Economic Analysis

IX. Environmental and Other Benefits

X. Renewable Supply Placement

XI. Transition to a Renewable Energy + Storage Base for the U.S.

XII. Next Steps

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