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3.2HypothesisTesting(Pvalueapproach)|Statistics

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3.2HypothesisTesting(Pvalueapproach)
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because this means that our test
statistic is very extreme.

Pvalueapproach

ThePvalueapproachinvolvesdetermining"likely"or"unlikely"bydeterminingtheprobability
assumingthenullhypothesisweretrueofobservingamoreextremeteststatisticinthedirectionof
thealternativehypothesisthantheoneobserved.IfthePvalueissmall,saylessthan(orequalto),
thenitis"unlikely."And,ifthePvalueislarge,saymorethan,thenitis"likely."
IfthePvalueislessthan(orequalto),thenthenullhypothesisisrejectedinfavorofthealternative
hypothesis.And,ifthePvalueisgreaterthan,thenthenullhypothesisisnotrejected.
Specifically,thefourstepsinvolvedinusingthePvalueapproachtoconductinganyhypothesistest
are:
1.Specifythenullandalternativehypotheses.
2.Usingthesampledataandassumingthenullhypothesisistrue,calculatethevalueofthetest
statistic.Again,toconductthehypothesistestforthepopulationmean,weusethetstatistic
t

x
s/n

whichfollowsatdistributionwithn1degreesoffreedom.

3.Usingtheknowndistributionoftheteststatistic,calculatethePvalue:"Ifthenullhypothesisis
true,whatistheprobabilitythatwe'dobserveamoreextremeteststatisticinthedirectionofthe
alternativehypothesisthanwedid?"(Notehowthisquestionisequivalenttothequestionanswered
incriminaltrials:"Ifthedefendantisinnocent,whatisthechancethatwe'dobservesuchextreme
criminalevidence?")
4.Setthesignificancelevel,,theprobabilityofmakingaTypeIerrortobesmall0.01,0.05,or
0.10.ComparethePvalueto.IfthePvalueislessthan(orequalto),rejectthenullhypothesis
infavorofthealternativehypothesis.IfthePvalueisgreaterthan,donotrejectthenull
hypothesis.
Inourexampleconcerningthemeangradepointaverage,supposethatourrandomsampleofn=15
studentsmajoringinmathematicsyieldsateststatistict*equaling2.5.Sincen=15,ourteststatistict*
hasn1=14degreesoffreedom.Also,supposewesetoursignificancelevelat0.05,sothatwehave
onlya5%chanceofmakingaTypeIerror.
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3.2HypothesisTesting(Pvalueapproach)|Statistics

ThePvalueforconductingtherighttailedtestH0:=3versusHA:>3istheprobabilitythatwe
wouldobserveateststatisticgreaterthant*=2.5ifthepopulationmean reallywere3.Recallthat
probabilityequalstheareaundertheprobabilitycurve.ThePvalueisthereforetheareaunderatn1=
t14curveandtotherightoftheteststatistict*=2.5.ItcanbeshownusingstatisticalsoftwarethattheP
valueis0.0127:

ThePvalue,0.0127,tellsusitis"unlikely"thatwewouldobservesuchanextremeteststatistict*inthe
directionofHAifthenullhypothesisweretrue.Therefore,ourinitialassumptionthatthenull
hypothesisistruemustbeincorrect.Thatis,sincethePvalue,0.0127,islessthan=0.05,wereject
thenullhypothesisH0:=3infavorofthealternativehypothesisHA:>3.
NotethatwewouldnotrejectH0:=3infavorofHA:>3ifweloweredourwillingnesstomakea
TypeIerrorto=0.01instead,asthePvalue,0.0127,isthengreaterthan=0.01.
Inourexampleconcerningthemeangradepointaverage,supposethatourrandomsampleofn=15
studentsmajoringinmathematicsyieldsateststatistict*insteadequaling2.5.ThePvaluefor
conductingthelefttailedtestH0:=3versusHA:<3istheprobabilitythatwewouldobserveatest
statisticlessthant*=2.5ifthepopulationmeanreallywere3.ThePvalueisthereforethearea
underatn1=t14curveandtotheleftoftheteststatistict*=2.5.Itcanbeshownusingstatistical
softwarethatthePvalueis0.0127:

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3.2HypothesisTesting(Pvalueapproach)|Statistics

ThePvalue,0.0127,tellsusitis"unlikely"thatwewouldobservesuchanextremeteststatistict*inthe
directionofHAifthenullhypothesisweretrue.Therefore,ourinitialassumptionthatthenullhypothesis
istruemustbeincorrect.Thatis,sincethePvalue,0.0127,islessthan=0.05,werejectthenull
hypothesisH0:=3infavorofthealternativehypothesisHA:<3.
NotethatwewouldnotrejectH0:=3infavorofHA:<3ifweloweredourwillingnesstomakea
TypeIerrorto=0.01instead,asthePvalue,0.0127,isthengreaterthan=0.01.
Inourexampleconcerningthemeangradepointaverage,supposeagainthatourrandomsampleofn=
15studentsmajoringinmathematicsyieldsateststatistict*insteadequaling2.5.ThePvaluefor
conductingthetwotailedtestH0:=3versusHA:3istheprobabilitythatwewouldobservea
teststatisticlessthan2.5orgreaterthan2.5ifthepopulationmeanreallywere3.Thatis,thetwo
tailedtestrequirestakingintoaccountthepossibilitythattheteststatisticcouldfallintoeithertail(and
hencethename"twotailed"test).ThePvalueisthereforetheareaunderatn1=t14curvetotheleftof
2.5andtotherightofthe2.5.ItcanbeshownusingstatisticalsoftwarethatthePvalueis0.0127+
0.0127,or0.0254:

NotethatthePvalueforatwotailedtestisalwaystwotimesthePvalueforeitheroftheonetailed
tests.ThePvalue,0.0254,tellsusitis"unlikely"thatwewouldobservesuchanextremeteststatistict*
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inthedirectionofHAifthenullhypothesisweretrue.Therefore,ourinitialassumptionthatthenull
hypothesisistruemustbeincorrect.Thatis,sincethePvalue,0.0254,islessthan=0.05,wereject
thenullhypothesisH0:=3infavorofthealternativehypothesisHA:3.
NotethatwewouldnotrejectH0:=3infavorofHA:3ifweloweredourwillingnesstomakea
TypeIerrorto=0.01instead,asthePvalue,0.0254,isthengreaterthan=0.01.
NowthatwehavereviewedthecriticalvalueandPvalueapproachproceduresforeachofthree
possiblehypotheses,let'slookatthreenewexamplesoneofarighttailedtest,oneofalefttailed
test,andoneofatwotailedtest.
Thegoodnewsisthat,wheneverpossible,wewilltakeadvantageoftheteststatisticsandPvalues
reportedinstatisticalsoftware,suchasMinitab,toconductourhypothesistestsinthiscourse.
3.1HypothesisTesting(Criticalvalue
approach)(/statprogram/node/137)

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3.3HypothesisTesting:Examples

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