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This Week at the ISN

Our Weekly Content Roundup

29 February - 4 March 2016

JUMP TO Editorial Plan | Security Watch | Blog | Video

// Security Watch

This week, our first Security Watch (SW) series focuses on ISIS's military doctrine and its alleged Ba'athist influences; the
latest trends in international arms transfers; the principles and innovative technologies that will define future US Army
operations in megacities; the questionable utility of "soft" approaches to warfare; and why understanding the history of
nonviolence is essential. Then, in our second SW series, we look at the latest crisis in Russian-Turkish relations, which
extends back to 2008; the contested universality of the International Criminal Court; why the EU lifted its sanctions against
Belarus; how the South Caucasus region is being affected by the current tensions between Russia and Turkey; and what
constitutes "good peacebuilding."

The Military Doctrine of the Islamic State and the Limits of Ba'athist Influence
29 February 2016

Are the so-called Islamic State's (IS) military successes in Syria and Iraq attributable to the large cadre of ex-Ba'athist
army officers within its ranks? Barak Barfi doesn't think so. By comparing three IS battles with past Ba'athist campaigns,
he confirms that IS' military doctrine and methods are based on "a hybrid of experiences." More

The Crisis in RussianTurkish Relations, 20082015

29 February 2016

According to ener Aktrk, Turkey's downing of a Russian Su-24 aircraft on November 24, 2015 wasn't the cause for the
"spectacular crisis" in RussianTurkish relations that followed. Instead, the incident should be interpreted as a symptom of
a broader geopolitical reversal that has been underway since 2008. More

Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2015

1 March 2016

According to SIPRI's Aude Fleurant, the international transfer of major weapons grew by 14% from 20112015. And of the
58 countries that exported weapons in those years, the "Big 5" (the US, Russia, China, France and Germany) were
responsible for 74% of all arms transfers. If you're interested in more revealing data such as this, then read on. More

Legitimacy and Universality: The Future of the International Criminal Court

1 March 2016

Is the International Criminal Court (ICC) designed to provide deterrence or justice? Why does South Africa want to
withdraw from the ICC? Should countries outside the jurisdiction of the Court have the power to refer cases? Today, Alex
Whiting answers these questions and many others that relate to this controversial institution. More

US Army Mega City Operations: Enduring Principles and Innovative Technologies

2 March 2016

By 2050, will urbanization be the most consequential event in the history of mankind? Frank Prautzsch believes so. He
also thinks the US Army should prepare for future missions in the mega cities of Asia and Africa. That means subscribing
to 10 Sun Tzu-inspired principles and "evaluating, maturing and mutating" 18 technologies. More

Stability, Not Values: The EU Lifts Sanctions against Belarus

2 March 2016

On 15 February, the EU Council lifted specific sanctions against 170 members of the Belarusian government. The
decision, argues Kamil Kysiski, was a practical one. The policy wasn't working, Minsk has been "balanced" in its
approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Brussels is beginning to appreciate the country's stability. More

Soft War = Smart War? Think Again

3 March 2016

The South Caucasus in the Shadow of the Russian-Turkish Crisis

3 March 2016

As Konrad Zasztowt sees it, the recent standoff between Russia and Turkey over Syria is rattling the South Caucasus
region. The two nations' weakening economic ties, for example, are starting to diminish Turkish-Georgian-Azerbaijani
trade and security cooperation. More

Why Understanding the History of Nonviolence is Essential

4 March 2016

Let's play the "10-10" game. Name 10 wars and then name 10 nonviolent struggles. Now, which list took you longer to
complete? If you're like most of us, says Tristan Husby, maybe it's time for you to reacquaint yourself with both the history
and effectiveness of nonviolent action. Here's his review of two texts that do just that. More

Does Anyone Know What Good Peacebuilding Looks Like?

4 March 2016

Has the concept of peacebuilding expanded over the last 25 years? According to Gustavo de Cavarlho and Onnie Kok, its
attributes have indeed multiplied, but those who work in the field are still hamstrung by their inability to plan and execute
effectively, measure and use results, and generate institutional learning. More

// Blog
The Thugs of War in Syria
29 February 2016

So after five years, what can we say about the War in Syria? As Mona Christophersen sees it, an initial revolt against a
dictatorship now also pits Sunnis vs. Shi'as-Alawites, Sunni moderates vs. extremists, the Assad Regime vs. Kurds;
Turkey and Saudi Arabia vs. Iran, and Russia vs. the US. Quite the melee, isn't it? And here's what comes next. More

Morgenthau's Utilitarian Version of Realism

1 March 2016

Is it time for you to remind yourself of what Hans Morgenthau really thought about political realism? If so, Nicholas Pugh is
here to help. In this tutorial on one of the most influential realist theorists of all time, Pugh reminds us that Morgenthau's
thinking was neither amoral nor bellicose.
More

Neither Remaining nor Expanding: The Islamic State's Global Expansion Struggles
2 March 2016

As Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Nathaniel Barr see it, the so-called Islamic State isn't a political-military juggernaut and
its success is hardly inevitable. Indeed, the group isn't "remaining and expanding," as its wildly dishonest propaganda
would have us believe. The true story features "paper provinces" and internal schisms. More

Counterinsurgency in the Modern Age: An Interview with Bruce Hoffman

3 March 2016

What makes the command structure of ISIS different from al Qaeda or others? How are ISIS' global ambitions reflected in
its recruiting strategies? And finally, what should an effective counter-ISIS strategy look like? Today, noted
counterterrorism expert Bruce Hoffman answers these questions and many others. More

Interview Emmanuel Goffi

4 March 2016

Is the US drone program both effective and ethical? How is warfare-at-a-distance affecting the idea of "supreme sacrifice"
in the military? Are remotely piloted systems just too convenient i.e., can they drag policymakers into conflicts they might
otherwise avoid? Here's what drone expert Emmanuel Goffi thinks. More

// Video

Defence Intelligence: Increasingly Different Today and Tomorrow

In this video, UK Air Marshall Phil Osborne highlights the importance of effective defense intelligence and elaborates on
the multiple functions it now performs, both on behalf of the defense community and other government agencies. More

Conversation: Apple, the FBI and Privacy vs. Security

In this video, Matthew Bey discusses the difficult standoff between Apple, which wants to restrict law enforcement's
access to its technologies, and the FBI, which believes it needs the access in order to protect the public. More

Strategic Intelligence: A View from the National Intelligence Council (NIC)

In today's video, NIC Chairman Gregory Treverton describes 1) the role played by his organization in US policy
development; 2) the tensions that exist between immediate and more wide-ranging intelligence requirements; and 3) the
particular challenges posed by the counterterrorism mission.
More

// Multimedia Content
Here is a selection of this week's additions to the ISN Digital
Library:

Publications More
// Report of the Group of Personalities on the Preparatory Action for CSDP-related Research More
// Grading Progress on US Drone Policy
More
// Afghanistan: New Opportunities for Talks with the Taliban More
// The Dragon's Tail at the Horn of Africa: A Chinese Military Logistics Facility in Djibouti More
// "I Didn't Struggle to be Poor": The Interwovenness of Party, State and Business in Mozambique
More
// Libya's Jihad More

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