Rock Mechanics Laboratory (LMR)

GCB (Ecublens) CH- 1015 LAUSANNE

: 021 - 693 23 25 TLFAX: 021 - 693 41 53
http://lmrwww.epfl.ch/lmr_f.html; e-mail: lmr@dgc.epfl.ch

Decision Aids in Tunneling

maximal duration
o
o

oo

o
o
oo o
o
o
o
o
o oo
o o
ooo
o o o
o
o
o o o
o o
o
o o

Cost
histogram

o
o
o

oo
o o
o

o
o
oo
o
ooo
o oo oo o
oo
o
o o
oo
o oo o o
o
o oo
o o
o
o
o
o o

oo

P [cost < 0.90 mc]

maximal cost
o
o

Expected cost + 10%

Expected cost
10%

P [cost > 1.10 mc]

Expected duration
10%
o

mc

Expected duration + 10%

Expected duration

minimal duration

Expected duration - 10%

Construction cost

The prevision of construction cost and time of

large tunnels - based on geological,
geotechnical and constructive uncertainties - is
studied in collaboration with the team of
Professor H.H. Einstein at MIT. The
simulation codes, based on theoretical work
carried out by H.H. Einstein, have been
developed and applied to construction sites,
such as the base tunnels under the Saint
Gothard and Ltschberg of the project
AlpTransit in Switzerland.
The programs permit the simulation of:
- possible geological profiles based on a set
of probabilistic geological parameters;
- the construction of a network of tunnels,
galleries, shafts, etc. through these profiles
while taking into account random
construction parameters.
A large number of coupled geological and
construction simulations give the distribution
of the expected construction cost and time.

Expected cost

o
o

Duration
histogram
P [duration < 0.90 m d ]

md

Expected cost - 10%

minimal cost

Duration of construction

C OL E PO L Y T EC H NI QUE
F DR AL E DE LA USANNE

The figure shows such a result, where each

point is the result of a construction of a
complete tunnel network through a possible
geological profile. Those results may then be
used as input for economical studies, risk
analyses, comparisons of options, etc.
The methodology also allows the evaluation
of the value of complementary geologic
exploration through a comparison of
exploration cost and possible gain. During
construction, it also permits a continual
reactualisation of the parameters as a function
of the encountered conditions in the already
excavated part, and therefore a refinement of
the previsions.

Publications
Descoeudres,F., J.-P. Dudt 1993. Instruments
d'aide la dcision pour la construction des
tunnels (ADCT), Publication de la
Soc.Suisse de Mca.des sols et des roches,
No.128, Kandersteg, pp.79-87
Descoeudres,F., J.-P.Dudt, H.H.Einstein,
V.Halabe 1992. Entscheidungshilfen fr
den Tunnelbau, Kurzbericht.
Dudt J.-P., F. Descoeudres 1994. Applications
d'instruments d'aide la dcision pour la
construction des tunnels (ADCT), 7me
Congrs Int. de l'AIGI, Lisbonne, pp.46114620.
Einstein, H.H., F. Descoeudres, J.-P. Dudt, V.
Halabe 1991. 'Entscheidungshilfen fr den
Tunnelbau', Schlussbericht ber die im
Auftrag des Bundesamtes fr Verkehr
ausgefhrten Arbeiten.
Einstein,H.H., F.Descoeudres, J.P.Dudt,
V.Halabe 1991. Decision Aids in
Tunneling. Monograph

P [duration > 1.10 m d ]

Simulation results to predict the construction

cost and time of a tunnel and risk to overcome
the range "expected cost 10%" and "
expected duration 10%".

JPD / September 1998