Operations Management II ORM2B15-3

Session 10 Waiting Line (Remaining) + Total

Productive Maintenance (TPM) + Reliability

Finite Population Calculations

Customers Working/Waiting/Servicing in cycles

Notations
Average Working time = U
Average Servicing time = T
Service Factor = X = T/(T + U)
Total number of customers = N
Number of Servers = S

For N, X and S(or M) Table 18.7 (Page 817-819)

Probability of waiting for a customer in QUEUE = D
Efficiency Factor = F
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Finite Population Calculations

Continued

Number in System = Number Working + Number Waiting

+ Number being Served = N

Average number Working = J = NF(1 X)

Average number Waiting = L = N(1 F)
Average number being Served = H = NFX

Average Waiting time = T(1 F)/XF

Average Downtime = Average waiting time + Service time

Probability of NOT waiting in QUEUE = 1 D

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Finite Population Problem

Textbook Problem 10 (Page 828)

Textbook Problem 11 (Page 828)

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Arrival and Service Rates do not follow

Particular Distribution

Known
= Mean Inter-arrival time
= Mean Service time
= Standard deviation of Inter-arrival time sample
= Standard deviation of Service time sample
Then

Coefficient of variation of Inter-arrival time = =

Coefficient of variation of service time = =

Customer

Customer

1
arrival rate = =

1
service rate = =

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Arrival and Service Rates do not follow

Particular Distribution Continued

Also

Utilization of the server = =

Average number in QUEUE = =

2(+1)

Average number in SYSTEM = +

Average time waiting in QUEUE =

Average time waiting in SYSTEM =

2 +2
2

Can we use formula for M/M/1 and M/D/1?

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General Model Problem

You are planning for six tellers in a bank. Tellers take 15

minutes per customer with a standard deviation of 7
minutes. Customers arrive one every three minutes
according to an exponential distribution. Every customer
that arrives eventually gets serviced.
On average how many customers would be waiting in
line?
On average how long would a customer spend in the
bank?

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Waiting Line Are these M/M/S

Examples?

Passenger QUEUE for security check at Airport

Yes Apply M/M/S Model

Patient QUEUE at hospital outdoor for different doctors

No Servers are different types

Customer QUEUE at payment section of supermarket store

No Each server will follow one M/M/1 Model

Patient QUEUE at hospital general ward asking for help

No This is finite/countably infinite population
depending on number
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Topic: Total Productive Maintenance

(TPM)

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What is TPM?

TPM is a
Lean tool
To optimize the effectiveness of manufacturing
equipment and tooling
Starts with 5S
Sort/Set in order/Shine/Standardize/Sustain
Builds a comprehensive Downtime Database by
Cause/ Frequency/ Duration
Predicts and prevents downtime by PM system
Expands role of Operator
First point of early warning and prevention
Total Employee Involvement (TEI)
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Effective TPM Eliminates Four Main

Losses

Equipment breakdowns and related set-up losses

Defects, scrap, and rework
Safety Issues
Mini stoppages or reduced speed

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8 Pillars of TPM

Initial Control 5S
Autonomous Maintenance Jishu Hozen
Planned Maintenance
Quality Maintenance Hinshitsu Hozen
Education & Training
Focused Improvement Kobetsu Kaizen
Safety, Hygiene & Environment
Office TPM

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Five Phases for Actions against

Breakdown

Phase 1 Change to natural deterioration by eliminating

Factors of Accelerated/Forced deterioration
Phase 2 Extend inherent service life of equipment by
Corrective maintenance
Improvements to overcome design limitations
Phase 3 Identify Natural deterioration pattern
Study how deterioration increases over time
Phase 4 Search which parameter to measure for
deterioration
Phase 5 Implement Predictive maintenance

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Steps to Zero Breakdown

Classify B/D data ( Including Equipment Ranking)

ABC classification of machines
Analysis of present status in QC Approach
Failure modes Accelerated/Natural/Design
Find out root cause & implement countermeasure
If solution is not available
Identify breakdown recurrence / understand phenomenon
Investigate design weakness
Improve it
Investigate natural deterioration
Set deterioration pattern
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Steps to Zero Breakdown Continued

Select & evaluate maintenance point & standard

Decide how to do
Time Based Maintenance (TBM)
Decide Frequency
Condition Based Maintenance (CBM)
Decide instruments
Build best maintenance procedure
For each machine/machine parts
Apply Maintenance prevention
Reduce Red Tag
Increase White Tag
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Topic: Reliability Analysis

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Some Important Terms

Warranty
Difference with Guarantee

Reliability

Durability
Difference between durable and consumable

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What is Reliability

Product should perform when activated

Product should perform for a given length of time

Independent events versus Redundancy

Repairable versus Non-repairable items

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Reliability Analysis

Bathtub curve
Infant mortality period
Constant failure rate period
Wear out period

How to create Bathtub curve?

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Exponential Formula for Reliability

PS = R = Probability of failure free operation for a time

period t
t = Specified period for failure free operation
= Mean time between failures (MTBF) = Mean of TBF
distribution
= Failure rate = 1/

PS = R = exp( t/) = exp( t)

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Time Between Failure (TBF) Example

A washing machine requires 30 minutes to clean a set of

clothes. MTBF is 100 hours. What is the probability of
machine not completing a cycle without failure?

Answer: 0.49875%

What was the assumption?

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Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF)

Different from Operating life/ Service life

Assumes product can be repaired and placed back into
operation after each failure
Different from Mean Time To Failure (MTTF)
For constant failure rate
What is the probability that the product will operate
without fail for a time MTBF?
Relationship between part and system reliability
PS = P1P2P3Pn
What are the assumptions?
Reliability with Parallel Redundancy
PS = 1 (1 P1)(1 P2)(1 P3)(1 Pn)
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Reliability Parameters

Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF)

Failure rate
Mean Time To Failure (MTTF)
Mean Time to First Failure (MTFF)
Mean Time Between Maintenance (MTBM)
Longevity
Availability
System effectiveness
Probability of success
b10 life
b50 life
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Thank You!
Best of Luck!

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