Professional Documents
Culture Documents
• A Senate subcommittee’s investigation finds that Goldman Sachs spread risk throughout the
financial system by creating risky mortgage‐related investments and taking out big bets against housing
market. Washington Post
• Legislation to overhaul the nation’s system of financial regulation failed to clear a critical procedural
hurdle in the Senate Monday afternoon, as Republicans succeeded in blocking Democratic efforts to
bring the far‐reaching bill to the Senate floor for debate. Washington Post
Two republicans didn’t vote; the rest vote against.
• Washington Update – the vote Mon night to commence debate on fin reg reform fails, as expected;
Majority Leader Reid winded up voting w/the Republicans, but this was just a procedural move that will
permit him to call for a second vote at any time. There are three major differences between the two
sides: 1) the proposed new consumer watchdog agency and where it would be housed; 2) language
around derivatives; 3) a bailout fund to pay for future rescues. WSJ notes that the two sides aren’t two
far apart on the major issues. Where to from here? Negotiations will continue. There are three major
issues on the agenda ahead of the mid‐terms: 1) financial reform; 2) immigration; 3) climate change.
Also watch for action on: 1) the Supreme Court; 2) political spending – the Dems are expected to
introduce legislation that would limit in part a recent decision from the Supreme Court.
• Municiples – investors are increasing buying CDS on various US municipalities amid rising worries
about budget deficits. The existence of the derivatives is angering some states, which think they send a
negative signal to investors. WSJ – CDS, or Credit Default Swaps, are essentially insurance products,
which pay out if the underlying bond defaults (in this case Municipal bonds). These products were
originally intended to offer protection to investors. For example, large pension funds (CALPERS) buy a
ton of Muni debt but in order to protect their investment against an unexpected default they buy
protection or insurance that would pay them in the event of a default. In the last few years, as defaults
have become more common, speculators have also begun using the products. In other words, a
speculator doesn’t own the underlying bond; they are just buying the CDS in the anticipation of receiving
a payout if there is a default, or benefitting from a rise in the price of the CDS as the odds of a default
increase. From what I have seen, speculators are still a rather small sliver of the whole CDS market but
to be fair, I’m not sure how accurate or how exact one can be in determining that because CDS are not
traded on an exchange. They are private contracts between two parties, so nobody really knows for
certain what is out there or who has exposure. That’s just a quick overview, I’m happy to answer any
questions or discuss this with anybody interested.
• Homebuyers tax credit called successful, but expensive – buyers are rushing to complete home
purchases before the credit expires (Home buyers must have a deal by April 30 and close by June 30 to
qualify for the federal tax break). However, while the credit may have helped the market a bit, most of
the money went to people who were already going to purchase a home. NYT
• FOMC preview – from M Feroli ‐ At the conclusion to the upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday,
we expect the Fed to leave the target funds rate at 0‐0.25% and to reiterate the expectation that rates
are likely to remain exceptionally low for an extended period. This view is based on the fact that the
three conditions given for the extended period language ‐‐ low rates of resource utilization, subdued
inflation trends and stable inflation expectations ‐‐ still hold at this meeting as much as they did at the
prior meeting.
Fed Funds Forecasts
J. Hatzius is from
Goldman
B. Kasman is from JPM
C. Low is from FTN
Financial
• Noma is named world’s best restaurant, finally topping El Bulli ‐ Bloomberg – French Laundry slides
20 spots to #32…I thought their chef had been slipping.