Avan Sobre Dinamica Sequias JSALAS

II Congreso Obras de Saneamiento, Hidrulica,
Hidrologa y Medio Ambiente - HIDRO 2007

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Avances Sobre la Dinamica de

Sequas Extremas
Jos D. Salas
Departamento de Ingenieria Civil y Ambiental
Colorado State University
HYDRO II, 2007 Congreso en Lima

Agradecimiento: Projectos financiados por la U.S. Bureau Reclamation y Colorado
Experiment Station
Resumen de esta presentacion

Introduccion
- aspectos que intervienen en la dinamica de sequias
- ejemplos de impactos
Caracterizar la dinamica de sequias en el tiempo
- metodos
- ejemplos
Caracterizar la dinamica de sequias en el espacio
- metodos
- ejemplos
Comentarios finales
INSTITUTO DE LA CONSTRUCCION Y GERENCIA - ICG
Telefax: (01) 421-7896 / icg@icg.org.pe / www.construccion.org.pe

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Introduccion
Atmospheric & Hydrologic
Systems
Land surface-atmospheric interactions
Severity, recurrence, and risk of events
Drought
Human Systems
Ecologic/Environmental
Systems
Socio-economic impacts & feedbacks

Infrastructure & management
Ecologic impacts & feedbacks

Watershed impacts & response
Introduccion
Meteorological Aspects of Droughts
Precipitation deficiency
(duration, amount, intensity, extent)
High temperature, persistent winds, low

humidity, more sunshine, less cloud cover
Hydrological and Ecological Aspects of Droughts
- Less runoff
- Less infiltration
- Less deep percolation
- Less groundwater
recharge
- Less baseflow
- More reservoir
evaporation
- More evaporation
and transpiration
demands
- Less reservoir storage

- Less lake and pond storages
- Less soil water storage
- Less groundwater storage
- Less snowpack
- Depletion of glaciers
Impacts and Consequences of Droughts

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Introduccion
Meteorological Aspects of Droughts
Hydrological and Ecological Aspects of Droughts

Impacts and Consequences of Droughts
Economic impacts
- Less agricultural production
(plant water stress, reduced
biomass and yield)
- Reduced livestock
- Unexpected sales of
farmlands and livestock
- Increase prices of food
- Increased price of water for
municipal consumption and
industry
- Decreased revenues of
recreational industries
such as ski, fishing, etc.
- Loss of jobs
(Others)
Social impacts
- Urban water shortages
and deficits
- Reduced comfort
- Less recreational
opportunities
- Changes in lifestyles
- Deterioration of
aesthetic landscape
- Population dislocation
- Deterioration of health
- Increase of certain
insects, viruses, etc.
- Others
Drought Mitigation & Adaptation
Environmental impacts
- Increase of wildfires,
forest fires.
- Increased soil erosion
- Increased dust
- Deterioration of air quality
- Reduced wetlands
- Reduced wildlife habitat
- Deterioration of natural
vegetation
- Deterioration of water
quality
- Others
Drought Planning and Management
Introduccion
9
10
13
12
UC CRSS stream gauges
14
LC CRSS stream gauges
1
15
2
16
17
7
8
21
24
19
20
25
18
23
22
26
28
27
29

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Niveles del Embalse Mead (Represa Hoover)

Rio Colorado, USA
The effects of the drought are dramatically seen at Lake Mead, Nevada,
where the shoreline has shrunk so considerably that it has forced a marina
to relocate from newly dry land.

Rio Colorado, USA
Source: The following four pictures are taken from the on-line magazine Las
Vegas Information, Hotels, Apartments, Photos published by SunSetCities.Com
under the section of Hoover Dam.

01 y 02 de Junio 2007

Rio Colorado, USA
Source: The following four pictures are taken from the on-line magazine
Las Vegas Information, Hotels, Apartments, Photos published by
SunSetCities.Com under the section of Hoover Dam.

Rio Colorado, USA
The drought has left docks hanging from newly formed cliffs.

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Efectos de la Sequia de los 30 en USA
Figure 13. The Dust Bowl - Baca

County, Colorado, in 1936. Photo by
D. L. Kernodle
Efectos de la sequia reciente

(2000-2006?) en USA
Figure 19. Drought affects agriculture

production greatly
Photo Credit: Jahi Chikwendiu /
Lexington Herald-Leader
A photo of a wildfire in the west in

2000 due to drought conditions, Aug.
6, 2000 in the Bitterroot Valley National
Forest, MT.

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Sequia en el Rio Amazonas
Foto tomada de un informe

Del SENAMHI (G. Chamorro)
Precipitacion annual del Estado de

Colorado, USA
Colorado statewide annual precip (1895-2006)
23
Deficit
Annual precip
21
Precip (in)
19
17
15
13
11
Time (years)
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Precipitacion annual del Estado de

Colorado, USA
Colorado statewide annual precip (1895-2002)
Annual precip
5-yr moving average
Mean
23
21
Precip (in)
19
17
15
13
11
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
Time (years)
Caudales Anuales del Rio Poudre,

Colorado, USA

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Caudales Anuales del Rio Colorado, USA

Colorado River Site 20 annual flow (1906-2003)
30
Deficit
Annual flow
Flow (million AF)
25
20
15
10
0
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
Time (years)
Caudales Anuales del Rio Colorado, USA

Five-year Moving Average Flow of the
Colorado River Site 20 (1906-2003)
30
Deficit
5-yr moving average
Flow (million AF)
25
20
15
10
5
0
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Caudales Anuales del Rio Niger, Africa

Niger River at Koulikoro annual flows (1907-1999)
2500
Deficit
Annual flow
Flow (CMS)
2000
1500
1000
500
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
Time (years)
Caracterizacion de la Dinamica de Sequas

por Metodos Estocasticos
Analisis estadstico de los datos histricos
- datos convencionales, e.g. Q, P, etc.
- otros datos, e.g. anillos de rboles
Analisis estadstico de datos simulados
- datos histricos
- modelos estocsticos para generar Q, P, etc.
Solucin analtica
- datos histricos
- modelos estocsticos

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Definicin y Propiedades de Sequas

Yevjevichs (1967)
x8 0t 0
700
L =4
600
500
400
I
300
x
200
100
0
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
T im e t

Fellers (1968)
25
Variable of Interest
20
L=2
L=2
L=2
L=2
15
10
D
5
0
1
10
13
16
Years
19

01 y 02 de Junio 2007

Fernandez y Salas (1999)
25
20
L=2
Variable of Interest
L=2
L=2
15
L=2
10
d3
d1 d2
d4
L=2
L=2
d5
d7
d6
d8 d9 d10
5
The most extreme 2 years Drought
0
1
10 Years
13
16
19
Distribucin de la Duracion de Sequas

Assume that the sequence of deficits and surpluses are represented by
0s and 1s, and are modeled by a DAR(1) process (Markov chain)
1
Sample
Fitted based on the DAR(1) model
Fitted based on the DARMA(1,1) model
Probability
0.8
f L (l ) = p01 (1 p01 )l 1
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1
10
11
12
Run Length (years)
Sample and Fitted Run Length Distributions of

State 0 Based on the DAR(1) and DARMA(1,1)
Models Fitted to the Niger River Annual Flows

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Distribucin de la Duracion de Sequas

Assume that the sequence of deficits and surpluses are represented by
0s and 1s, which in turn are modeled by a DARMA(1,1) process
where yt < yo
0
xt =
1
xt = ut yt + (1 ut ) zt 1
otherwise
P[ Li = l ] = {P[W = 2(1 i)][Hi(l ) (0) Hi(l +1) (0)]

+ P[W = 2(1 i) + 1][Hi(l ) (1) Hi(l +1) (1)]}/ P[ x0 = 1 i, x1 = i]
H=transition probability matrix of (x,z) and W=4 state simple Markov chain
E[ Li ] = l P[ Li = l ]
l =1
Distribucin de la Magnitud de Sequas

pdf from historical record
pdf from generated sample
7
6
-6
pdf (10 )
Probability density function
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Deficit (1000 acr-ft)
Comparison of the probability density function (pdf) of the single year deficit
obtained from the generated flow record versus the pdf obtained from the
historical record (L=1).

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Relative frequency
0.7
0.6
Historical data
0.5
Generated data
Eq. (10)
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
Amount of deficit (10 acre-ft)

Probability density function (pdf) of the deficit D obtained from the
historical record, generated record, and analytical approximation (L>=1).

Dada la Duracion (condicional)
Gamma-3:
d
1
f D| l (d ) =
l ( l ) l
Beta-4:
f D| l (d ) =
l 1
d
exp
l
(d a )l 1 (lb d )l 1
1
B( l , l )
(lb a )l + l 1
Conditional mean and variance of deficit as a function of the

mean, variance, and serial correlation of individual deficits:
D| l = l d
D2 | l = d2 l + 2 1
l (1 ) 1 + l
(1 )2

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Ejemplo: Rio Niger en Koulikoro

(1907-1999)
3500
3000
Variance of D
Mean of D
2500
2000
1500
Observed
1000
Simulation
Eq(31)
Eq(20)
500
0
1
10
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
x 10
Observed
Simulation
Eq(32)
Eq(21)
1
Drought length (years)
Otras Propiedades de Sequas:

Periodo de Retorno y Riesgo
600
500
L=5
L=3
L=4
Flows, x
400
300
200
X0
100
I0
D0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Time (years)
10

01 y 02 de Junio 2007

Periodo de Retorno y Riesgo
Consider the drought event D > Do L = l
T = E[ M ] =
E[ L0 ] + E[ L1 ]
P[ D > Do Al ]
E[ Li ] = l P[ Li = l ]
l =1
P [ D > Do L = l ] = P [ D > Do | L = l ] P [ L = l ]
P[ D > Do | L = l ] =
lb
Do
(s a )l 1 (lb s )l 1 ds
1
B( l , l )
(lb a )l + l 1

Periodo de Retorno
Rio Niger, Africa (Dist. Beta)
Returnperiod(years)
period (years)
Return
10000
=1.0
0
1000
=0.5
0
100
Observed
Simulation
Eq(20)
Eq(27)
=0
10
1
0
10
11
Droughtlength(years)
length(years)
Drought

01 y 02 de Junio 2007

Periodo de Retorno
Rio Niger, Africa (Dist. Beta)
Niger River at Koulikoro annual flows (1907-1999)

2500
Deficit
Annual flow
2000
Flow(CMS)
10000
1500
1000
=0.5
0
Time (years)
100
Observed
Simulation
Eq(20)
Eq(27)
=0
10
1
0
10
11
Droughtlength(years)
length(years)
Drought

Riesgo
R = P [ D > D0 and L l0 (l0 = 1, 2, ... ) will ocurr in 25 years ]
Rio Poudre, Colorado, USA

1.0
Symbol
Drought risk
0.8
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
simulated
1.00
1.35
1.50
0.75 (historical)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
10
11
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1000
1905
Returnperiod(years)
period (years)
Return
500
=1.0
0

01 y 02 de Junio 2007

Riesgo
Streamflows (1000 acre-ft)
R = P [ D > D0 and L l0 (l0 = 1, 2, ... ) will ocurr in 25 years ]

Rio Poudre, Colorado, USA
1.0
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1884
1893
1902
1911
1920
1929
1938
Symbol
1947
1956
1965
1974
1983
1992
Time (years)
Drought risk
0.8
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
simulated
1.00
1.35
1.50
0.75 (historical)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
10
11
Variabilidad (dinamica) Espacial de la

Severidad de Sequas: PDSI
2001

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Variabilidad (dinamica) Espacial de

la Severidad de Sequas: PDSI


01 y 02 de Junio 2007



01 y 02 de Junio 2007



01 y 02 de Junio 2007



01 y 02 de Junio 2007



01 y 02 de Junio 2007



01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Definicion y Propiedades de Sequas

en el Espacio: Sequia Regional
a(2)*
a(3)*
a(1)*
a(4)*
ft(2)*
zt(2)*
zt(3)*
zt(1)*
ft(3)*
ft(1)*
ft(4)*
zt(4)*

Area (fraction del area total) en deficit en el tiempo t
M
a t = a (k ) I t (k )
k =1
I t (k ) = 1 for z t (k ) < f t (k )
I t (k ) = 0 for z t (k ) f t (k )
where: k = estation
M = numero de estaciones
a(k) = area (fraccion) de la estacion k (0 a(k) 1)
zt(k) = precipitacion normalizada y estandarizada
ft(k) = representa la demanda (e.g. quantil de z)
Deficit Areal (espacial) en el tiempo t

M
D t = a (k ) [f t (k ) z t (k )] I t (k )
k =1

01 y 02 de Junio 2007

L=5
at
ac
Duracion sequia
regional L
t
1 2 ....
Dt
ti
tf
Magnitude sequia
regional
L=5
D =
t
t = ti
Dt
Propiedades de Sequas
Ejemplo: Estado de Colorado, USA

01 y 02 de Junio 2007

01 y 02 de Junio 2007

01 y 02 de Junio 2007

01 y 02 de Junio 2007

01 y 02 de Junio 2007

01 y 02 de Junio 2007
Comentarios Finales
Se ha avanzado bastante en la literatura para caracterizar la
dinamica de sequias mediante metodos estocasticos.
e.g. el periodo de retorno (T) de sequias es un concepto reciente.
e.g. las formulaciones analiticas para estimar T y el riesgo R
Areas donde se necesita mayor atencion y estudio incluyen:
- definiciones alternativas de sequias tanto para una o mas
variables asi como para un sitio o sitios multiples.
- metodos para cuantificar la severidad de sequias para
escalas multiples de tiempo (e.g. estaciones, meses, etc.)
- metodos para cuantificar la severidad de sequias regionales y
continentales.
Comentarios Finales
Areas donde se necesita mayor atencion y estudio incluyen:
- desarrollar metodos para cuantificar la incertidumbre de la
severidad de sequias.
- desarrollar metodos para definir y estimar la severidad de sequias
teniendo en cuenta las variaciones hidroclimaticas de baja
frecuencia (persistencia, cambios bruscos, procesos
no estacionarios, etc.)

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II Congreso Obras de Saneamiento, Hidrulica,

Hidrologa y Medio Ambiente - HIDRO 2007

Avances Sobre la Dinamica de

HYDRO II, 2007 Congreso en Lima

Resumen de esta presentacion

INSTITUTO DE LA CONSTRUCCION Y GERENCIA - ICG

Telefax: (01) 421-7896 / icg@icg.org.pe / www.construccion.org.pe

II Congreso Obras de Saneamiento, Hidrulica,

Socio-economic impacts & feedbacks

Ecologic impacts & feedbacks

High temperature, persistent winds, low

Hydrological and Ecological Aspects of Droughts

- Less reservoir storage

Impacts and Consequences of Droughts

INSTITUTO DE LA CONSTRUCCION Y GERENCIA - ICG

Telefax: (01) 421-7896 / icg@icg.org.pe / www.construccion.org.pe

II Congreso Obras de Saneamiento, Hidrulica,

Hydrological and Ecological Aspects of Droughts

Drought Mitigation & Adaptation

Drought Planning and Management

LC CRSS stream gauges

INSTITUTO DE LA CONSTRUCCION Y GERENCIA - ICG

Telefax: (01) 421-7896 / icg@icg.org.pe / www.construccion.org.pe

II Congreso Obras de Saneamiento, Hidrulica,

Niveles del Embalse Mead (Represa Hoover)

Niveles del Embalse Mead (Represa Hoover)

INSTITUTO DE LA CONSTRUCCION Y GERENCIA - ICG

Telefax: (01) 421-7896 / icg@icg.org.pe / www.construccion.org.pe

II Congreso Obras de Saneamiento, Hidrulica,

Niveles del Embalse Mead (Represa Hoover)

Niveles del Embalse Mead (Represa Hoover)

INSTITUTO DE LA CONSTRUCCION Y GERENCIA - ICG

Telefax: (01) 421-7896 / icg@icg.org.pe / www.construccion.org.pe

II Congreso Obras de Saneamiento, Hidrulica,

Efectos de la Sequia de los 30 en USA

Figure 13. The Dust Bowl - Baca

Efectos de la sequia reciente

Figure 19. Drought affects agriculture

A photo of a wildfire in the west in

INSTITUTO DE LA CONSTRUCCION Y GERENCIA - ICG

Telefax: (01) 421-7896 / icg@icg.org.pe / www.construccion.org.pe

II Congreso Obras de Saneamiento, Hidrulica,

Sequia en el Rio Amazonas

Foto tomada de un informe

Precipitacion annual del Estado de

INSTITUTO DE LA CONSTRUCCION Y GERENCIA - ICG

Telefax: (01) 421-7896 / icg@icg.org.pe / www.construccion.org.pe

II Congreso Obras de Saneamiento, Hidrulica,

Precipitacion annual del Estado de

Caudales Anuales del Rio Poudre,

INSTITUTO DE LA CONSTRUCCION Y GERENCIA - ICG

Telefax: (01) 421-7896 / icg@icg.org.pe / www.construccion.org.pe

II Congreso Obras de Saneamiento, Hidrulica,

Caudales Anuales del Rio Colorado, USA

Flow (million AF)

Caudales Anuales del Rio Colorado, USA

Flow (million AF)

INSTITUTO DE LA CONSTRUCCION Y GERENCIA - ICG

Telefax: (01) 421-7896 / icg@icg.org.pe / www.construccion.org.pe

II Congreso Obras de Saneamiento, Hidrulica,

Caudales Anuales del Rio Niger, Africa

Caracterizacion de la Dinamica de Sequas

INSTITUTO DE LA CONSTRUCCION Y GERENCIA - ICG

Telefax: (01) 421-7896 / icg@icg.org.pe / www.construccion.org.pe