Professional Documents
Culture Documents
• Rails – strong earnings from NSC ‐ NSC’s 1Q10 EPS headline of $0.75/share (ex items was 0.72) was
significantly above our forecast of $0.65 and also well above Consensus of $0.68
• Fin Reform & Goldman hearings – nothing too “material” out of the Goldman hearings, but that may
not have necessarily been the point; press reports suggest the hearings on Tues are part of a broader
strategy to help insure passage of the financial reform bill currently working its way through Congress.
Dems intend on publicly pressing the issue, w/the Goldman hearings just one facet of this PR campaign.
• Market Update – the sp500 ends off 2.3% to 1183; we finish pretty much at the lows (low today was
1181); R2K finishes off 2.38% and Nazz was off 2.04%. The SP500 suffers its worst % decline since Feb 5
(on that day, the sp dropped 3.1%) The two big catalysts for the move lower: 1) the deteriorating
situation in Europe (see below); 2) growing worries about Washington and changes that could be
enacted on the legislative front. Despite the very weak close, there wasn’t a lot of panicked selling
pressure. The larger long onlys weren’t big sellers today (although there def. was an uptick of long
liquidations today). Given all the major risk asset markets around the world, US equities were among
the best performing.
• Portugal’s borrowing costs have exceeded 5%, meaning the county is paying more than Greece
would have been charged in the EU bailout – Bloomberg
And recall that if a bond’s yield is moving up sharply, as in the above graph, then the price of the
bond is doing this…
Portugal 2 year Benchmark Sovereign Bond Price
These are charts of Portuguese sovereign debt, Greek debt is faring significantly worse (the 2 Yr
apparently traded 38% today). The fact that it is now spreading means that the situation is
starting to resemble ‘contagion’…a term you will start hearing more (if you haven’t heard it
enough already). The more pertinent concern for us is that, up to this point, this has largely
been a local matter. But as contagion gains steam, it has important implications for all of us,
including US equity and bond investors.
For now, investors are seeing the problems in Greece and thinking of it like cockroaches: there’s
never only one. (My inbox is filled with reports and conference calls with titles like: ‘Euro area
sovereign crises’ and ‘Can Greece be Contained?’)
• European bank stocks very weak in trading for two reasons: 1) worries they will have to take
haircuts on any Greek debt holdings; 2) worries they won’t be able to use Greek bonds as collateral at
the ECB. Ratings agencies could expand their downgrades of European banks, which would raise their
borrowing costs. Bloomberg
• TV: Many programmers are changing their types of shows to relate to a teenage audience which is
less rebellious than in previous years. According to recent market research, 12 to 17 year old children
enjoy spending time with their families, get along with their parents and have a good relationship with
their mothers – this is over 15%‐20% higher than results from 20 years ago. [Wall Street Journal]
• No more Happy Meals – Santa Clara County officials vote to ban toys and other promotions that
restaurants offer with high‐calorie children’s meals; prevents restaurants from preying on children's'
love of toys" (LA Times)