\

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

R
EE E K L Y
P
O Blow by Blow
On
R
Bullions,
T
Base metals,

04 APRIL 08 APRIL 2016

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
Gold fell more than 1 per cent on Friday after US March payrolls data beat
expectations, allaying some fears about the US economy and stoking speculation
about the timing of likely interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year.US
employers added 215,000 jobs in March, the payrolls report showed, against
expectations for 205,000. US interest rate futures suggested traders are now betting
the Fed will next raise rates as soon as November, versus December ahead of the
report. Spot gold was down 1 per cent at $1,220.07 an ounce by 2:49 p.m. EDT (1849
GMT), having earlier touched a low of $1,208.45, while US gold futures for June
delivery settled down $12.1 an ounce at $1223.50.

Gold slides on
rate hike fears
after strong US

The metal saw its biggest quarterly rise in nearly 30 years in the three months to
March, rallying more than 16 per cent as expectations faded that the Fed would
move to normalize interest rates after their first increase in nearly a decade in
December. Gold fell more than 1 per cent on Friday after US March payrolls data beat
expectations, allaying some fears about the US economy and stoking speculation
about the timing of likely interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year.

jobs data.

When
Saudi Arabia
oil market
jolts.report
The kingdom
US
employers
added speaks,
215,000the
jobsworld
in March,
the payrolls
showed,helped
against boost
global
prices last
month when
it firstrate
backed
a proposal
to traders
freeze crude
production
expectations
for 205,000.
US interest
futures
suggested
are now
betting
and
thenext
worlds
of oil.
This week, aversus
deputy
crown prince
said
the stem
Fed will
raiseoversupply
rates as soon
as November,
December
ahead
of the deal
wouldnt
happen
without
support
from
key
producers
like
Iran,
sending
prices
down
report.
by over 4 percent on Friday to open the second quarter. That Saudi Arabias words
Spot gold
down
per cent
at $1,220.07
an ouncethe
by worlds
2:49 p.m.largest
EDT (1849
GMT),
alone
can was
steer
oil 1prices
shows
how influential
oil exporter
having earlier
touched
low of $1,208.45,
whileshale
US gold
for and
Juneother
delivery
remains,
despite
rising acompetition
from U.S.
oil futures
producers
oil-rich
settled
down
$12.1
an
ounce
at
$1223.50.
nations. Saudi Arabia in February agreed to join Venezuela, Qatar and non-OPEC
member Russia in freezing oil production at January levels. The news initially boosted
prices in the hope the deal could crimp the global supply glut this year. But some
observers
the proposal
off rise
as a in
distraction
dynamics.
The metalbrushed
saw its biggest
quarterly
nearly 30 from
yearsactual
in the market
three months
to The
Saudis
about
10.2
of oil a day
in January,
slightly less
March,produced
rallying more
than
16 million
per centbarrels
as expectations
faded
that the only
Fed would
than
kingdoms interest
record high
10.5their
million
a day
seen aindecade
June 2015
movethe
to normalize
ratesofafter
firstbarrels
increase
in nearly
in while
Russia
hit its highest output in the post-Soviet period in January. A freeze would
December.
merely lock in these elevated supply levels.

Oil Markets

Copper dropped for a fifth day, the longest slump since January, as a cut to the
outlook for Chinas credit rating added to concerns on global demand. Standard &
Poors said that increasing economic and financial risks prompted it to reduce the
outlook for Chinas credit rating to negative from stable. Earlier this month, Moodys
Investors Service made a similar revision.
In the U.S., the largest user of the metal after China, consumer comfort declined to a
three-month low, as Americans attitudes about the economy and their financial
prospects deteriorated. Copper for delivery in three months fell as much as 1.2% to
$4,816 per metric ton ($2.18 a pound), the lowest in almost a month, and settled at
$4,847 at 5:50 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange. On the COMEX in New York,
copper futures for May delivery slipped 0.3% to $2.183 a pound. The recent decline
has pared coppers first quarterly gain in almost two years amid production cutbacks
by miners. High quality global journalism requires investment. Copper prices, which
fell to a six-year low in January, have risen 12 per cent this quarter, and briefly traded
above $5,000 a ton helped by a weaker US dollar and optimism over Chinas property
market.

Rattled As Saudi
Arabia Casts
Doubt On Global
Crude Production
Freeze Deal.

Copper Posts
Worst Run Since
January after China
Rating Cut.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME
Apr 4 7:30pm

DESCRIPTION

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

Factory Orders m/m

-1.5%

1.6%

7:30pm

Labor Market Conditions Index m/m

Apr 5 6:00pm

Trade Balance

-46.3B

-45.7B

7:15pm

Final Services PMI

51.0

51.0

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

54.1

53.4

7:30pm

JOLTS Job Openings

5.57M

5.54M

7:30pm

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

47.7

46.8

Apr 6 8:00pm

Crude Oil Inventories

9:50pm

FOMC Member Mester Speaks

11:30pm

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Apr 7 6:00pm

Unemployment Claims

8:00pm

Natural Gas Storage

Apr 8 12:30am

Consumer Credit m/m

3:00am

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

5:45am

FOMC Member George Speaks

7:30pm

Wholesale Inventories m/m

7:30pm

-2.4

2.3M

271K

276K
-25B

15.2B

10.5B

-0.3%

0.3%

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD showed sideways to
bearish movement, it found support of
38.2% retracement on weekly chart
and closed below it. Now, if it
continues bearish movement on lower
side then it may find next strong
support of 27850 and on higher side if
correction happens then 29000 will act
as major resistance level.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 28200 for the targets of 2780027500, with stop loss of 29000.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

28250

27830

27250

29000

29580

30165

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER last week showed weak
movement, after sustaining below
38.2% retracement level it found the
support of 35500 and closed around
50% retracement. Now, for upcoming
sessions 36000 will act as strong
support for it, if it sustain below this
support then may find next support
around 35000. On the other hand
37000 will act as vital resistance.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 35500 for
the target of 34500, with stop loss of
37000.

PIVOT TABLE
S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

35400

34500

33500

36500

37500

38800

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Crude oil showed downward
movement last week and broke daily
trendline on lower side and closed
around its important support level of
2430. Now, 2400 is act as vital support
for it below which it may find next
support around 2200. On higher side,
some correction will pull it towards the
resistance level of 2620.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell below 2400 for the target of 2200,
with stop loss of 2650.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

2425

2280

2115

2620

2775

2910

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed bearish
movement and gave breakout of
double top pattern on lower side and
found the support of trendline on daily
chart. Now, 315 will act as immediate
support level for it, sustaining below
this 308 will be next support level. On
the other hand maintaining above 325
again pull it towards the major
resistance level of 331.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 315, with stop loss of 326 for the
target of 305.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

316

308.20

301

324.20

331

338.50

DISCLAIMER

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM