Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Important disclosures for the companies mentioned in this report can be found at
https://key2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.
Global Macro
Factor
Deflationary Backdrop Stabilizesfor Now. Recent easing of
USD strength, lift in crude oil prices have served to support cost
curves/broader commodity complex. 1Q16 Chinese iron ore
replenishment (plus culling of domestic mine production) ahead of
seasonal strength in finished steel demand has vaulted iron ore
prices toward $60/tonne vs. late 15 lows nearer $40/tonne.
Abatement in elevated Chinese steel exports; greater alleviation
of USD strength; stabilization in global crude, iron ore and copper
prices at these levels remains questionable.
Status/2016 Outlook
Constuction
47%
Energy 3%
Auto 27%
KeyBanc Capital Markets Real Carbon Steel Dem and Forecast - By End Market
Market
Machinery and Equipment
Energy
Automotive Production
Container
Appliance
Military
2015E
(7%)
(55%)
3%
0%
3%
0%
2016E
(5%-10%)
(35%-45%)
2%
(2%)
2%
0%
2017E
0%
20%
(2%)
0%
2%
0%
Construction
2%
5%
3%
Military
3%
Appliance
4%
Container
4%
Source: American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.
4,000
1,400
3,500
1,200
9,500
6,500
2,500
800
2,000
600
1,500
1,000
400
500
200
1,000
6,100
Thousand Short Tons
3,000
9,000
Thousand Short Tons
6,300
5,900
8,500
5,700
5,500
8,000
5,300
5,100
7,500
4,900
7,000
4,500
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
4,700
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Trade Administration, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc
*Based on final data from the Census Bureau for January, preliminary for February and ITA licensing data for March (through March 24th).
2017E
90,867
8,945
81,922
2.2%
27,334
-0.4%
335
109,591
2.4%
109,725
1.5%
77.0%
98,248
10,871
87,377
4.2%
32,694
36.8%
1,470
121,541
13.0%
113,206
5.8%
77.0%
86,550
8,945
77,605
-11.2%
30,434
-6.9%
(1,497)
106,542
-12.3%
107,922
-4.7%
71.0%
89,102
8,945
80,157
3.3%
27,434
-9.9%
(600)
106,991
0.4%
108,111
0.2%
76.2%
Source: AISI, U.S. Census Bureau, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. estimates
We see mill finished steel shipments growing 2-3% in 16, with de minimis growth in
real demand and 1H16 destocking offset by mill market share gains vs. imports
(primarily sheet). We expect imports of long products to remain elevated given still
wide spreads between U.S. and international prices, and stronger demand relative to
key sheet markets.
2016E
48,592
3,747
44,845
8,445
-600
52,691
-0.9%
53,849
0.0%
2017E
49,347
3,747
45,600
8,747
200
54,547
3.5%
54,283
0.8%
19,640
10,184
18,054
57,509
84%
20,963
9,957
17,712
57,809
85%
21,969
10,148
17,979
64,624
79%
19,552
9,128
17,318
62,624
75%
Source: AISI, U.S. Census Bureau, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. estimates
We see mill sheet shipments growing 3-4% in 16, with no growth in real demand and
1H16 destocking offset by mill market share gains vs. imports (we see 2.5M tons
YOY).
Disclosures Appendix
Important disclosures for the companies mentioned in this report can be found at https://key2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.
Reg A/C Certification
The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this research report certifies that:(1) all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's
personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this research report.
Other Disclosures
KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Member
NYSE/FINRA/SIPC (KBCMI), and KeyBank National Association (KeyBank N.A.), are marketed. Pacific Crest Securities is a division of KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.
KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. (KBCMI) does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a
conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
This report has been prepared by KBCMI. The material contained herein is based on data from sources considered to be reliable; however, KBCMI does not guarantee or warrant the
accuracy or completeness of the information. It is published for informational purposes only and should not be used as the primary basis of investment decisions. Neither the information
nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security. The opinions and estimates expressed reflect the current judgment of KBCMI
and are subject to change without notice. This report may contain forward-looking statements, which involve risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ significantly from the forwardlooking statements. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the
specific needs of any person or entity.
No portion of an analysts compensation is based on a specific banking transaction; however, part of his/her compensation may be based upon overall firm revenue and profitability, of
which investment banking is a component. Individuals associated with KBCMI (other than the research analyst(s) listed on page 1 of this research report) may have a position (long or
short) in the securities covered in this research report and may make purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise without notice. As required by NASD
Rule 2711(h)(1)(A), financial interest, if any, by any research analysts listed on page 1 of this report will be disclosed in Important Disclosures, Company-specific regulatory disclosures
located above in the Disclosure Appendix. KBCMI itself may have a position (long or short) in the securities covered in this research report and may make purchases and/or sales of
those securities in the open market or otherwise without notice. As required by NASD Rule 2711(h)(1)(B), if KBCMI beneficially owns 1% or more of any class of common equity
securities of the subject company(ies) in this research report as of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report will be disclosed in
Important Disclosures, Company-specific regulatory disclosures located above in the Disclosures Appendix. This communication is intended solely for use by KBCMI clients. The
recipient agrees not to forward or copy the information to any other person without the express written consent of KBCMI.
Rating System:
Overweight - We expect the stock to outperform the analyst's coverage sector over the coming 6-12 months.
Sector Weight - We expect the stock to perform in line with the analyst's coverage sector over the coming 6-12 months.
Underweight - We expect the stock to underperform the analyst's coverage sector over the coming 6-12 months.
Note: KeyBanc Capital Markets changed its rating system after market close on February 27, 2015. The previous ratings were Buy, Hold and Underweight. Additionally, Pacific Crest
Securities changed its rating system to match KeyBanc Capital Markets rating system after market close on April 10, 2015, in conjunction with the merger of the broker dealers. The
previous ratings were Outperform, Sector Perform and Underperform.
Investors should assume that we are seeking or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the company described in this report.
Please refer to the analysts' recently published reports for company-specific valuation and risks.
10
THANK YOU!
Philip Gibbs 216-689-0312
Tyler Kenyon 216-689-7127
Important disclosures for the companies mentioned in this report can be found at
https://key2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.
11
John Conheeney
World Steel Exchange Marketing
Platts Steel Markets North America Conference
March 14-15 Chicago
WSEM
World Steel Exchange Marketing
Contract Unit
Contract Unit
20 short tons
Price Quotation
Price Quotation
Trading Hours
Trading Hours
Minimum Price
Fluctuaton
Minimum Price
Fluctuation
Product Code
TIO
Product Code
HRC
Listed Contracts
Listed Contracts
Settlement Method
Financial
Settlement Method
Financial
Contract Unit
50 metric tons
Contract Unit
20 gross tons
Price Quotation
Price Quotation
Trading Hours
Trading Hours
Minimum Price
Fluctuaton
0.01 Euro
Product Code
NSF
Minimum Price
Fluctuation
Listed Contracts
24 consecutive months
Product Code
BUS
Listed Contracts
24 consecutive months
Settlement Method
Financial
Settlement Method
Financial
Termination of
Trading
Price Quotation
Price Quotation
Trading Hours
Trading Hours
Minimum Price
Fluctuation
Minimum Price
Fluctuaton
Product Code
FSF
Product Code
SSF
Listed Contracts
24 consecutive months
Listed Contracts
24 consecutive months
Settlement Method
Financial
Settlement Method
Financial
Termination of
Trading
Termination of
Trading
Price Quotation
Price Quotation
Trading Hours
Trading Hours
Minimum Price
Fluctuation
Minimum Price
Fluctuation
Product Code
SC
Product Code
SC
Listed Contracts
Settlement Method
Financial
Settlement Method
Financial
Termination of
holiday schedule.
Trading
Termination of
Trading
65 metric tonnes
Price Quotation
Trading Hours
Ring: 11:40-11:45
13:05-13:10
15:30-15:35
LME Select: 1:00-19:00 (London)
Inter-office: 24 hours
Minimum Price
Fluctuation
Product Code
SC
Settlement Dates
Settlement Method
Physical delivery
Termination of
Trading
Contract Unit
Price Quotation
Trading Hours
(Singapore time)
Minimum Price
Fluctuation
Product Code
FE
FEF
Listed Contracts
Settlement Method
Financial
Financial
Final or Floating Price The average price of all daily assessments published
for "Iron ore fines 62% Fe - CFR China Port" for that
month by TSI (The Steel Index). The last publication day is
is last Singapore business day of the month.
Contract Unit
Contract Unit
20 short tons
Price Quotation
Price Quotation
Trading Hours
Trading Hours
Minimum Price
Fluctuation
Minimum Price
Fluctuation
Product Code
USSH
Product Code
USHRC
Listed Contracts
Listed Contracts
Settlement Method
Financial
Settlement Method
Financial
Contract Unit
Contract Unit
20 metric tonnes
Price Quotation
Price Quotation
Trading Hours
Trading Hours
Minimum Price
Fluctuation
Minimum Price
Fluctuation
Product Code
CHN62FE
Product Code
ASEHRC
Listed Contracts
24 continuous months
Listed Contracts
Settlement Method
Financial
Settlement Method
Financial
Price Quotation
Trading Hours
Minimum Price
Fluctuation
Product Code
COKEAUS
Listed Contracts
24 continuous months
Settlement Method
Financial
Exchange
10 mt
100 mt
100 mt*
500 mt
20 gt
10 mt
10 mt
Contract Volume
63 million
29 million
1.36 million
38 thousand
58 hundred
250
1,250
Tonnes
6.3 billion
2.9 billion
136 million
18.9 million
116 thousand
2,500
12,500
China exchanges double count volume. These figures have been standardized to US and LME standards.
*Swaps (500 mt contract) volumes have been standardized to the 100 mt futures equivalent
Launch
2008
2011
2013
2010
2009
Nov. 2015
Nov. 2015
FCM
Representative
Phone
ADM
DH Darbie/Mizuho
Ira Levine
Dan Uslander
212-785-2892
(917) 720-3318
212-269-7271
212-379-5492
312-730-9771
212 278 5661 office
832-622-2262
ira.levine@admis.com
d.uslander@dhdarbie.com
FC Stone
Spencer Johnson
Maquarie
David Coates
Soc Gen/Newedge
Chris Olmstead
Crunch Risk Trading Andre Marshall
(OTC)*
Jack Marshall
*clears customer business with multiple FCMs
spencer.johnson@fcstone.com
david.coates@macquarie.com
christopher.olmstead@sgcib.com
andre.marshall@crunchrisk.com
WSEM
World Steel Exchange Marketing
Methodology
Data-driven methodology using
transaction data to calculate
volume-weighted price indices
TSI Data Providers submit spot
transaction data to TSI under
confidentiality agreement
Physical market participants only
(over 600 registered today)
Representatives from all relevant
points of the supply chain, buy
and sell sides
Submission direct to TSI database
through secure on-line channel
Data normalised and cleaned
before volume-weighted
averages calculated for the day
or week
https://youtu.be/FlIxVVDvkvI
The Steel Index On YouTube
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which TSI covers.
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steel demand and prices collected from our Data providers around the
world crucial market indicators!
Tim Hard
Singapore
TSI Director
Office: +65-6530-6413
Email: hard@thesteelindex.com
Vaseem Karbhari
London
TSI Senior Analyst
Office: +44-20-7176-7657
Email: v.karbhari@thesteelindex.com
Oscar Tarneberg
Shanghai
TSI Senior Analyst
Office: +65-6530-6412
Email: o.tarneberg@thesteelindex.com
Kurt Fowler
Pittsburgh
Sr. Manager, Americas
Office: +1 412-431-0584
Email: k.fowler@thesteelindex.com
Jasmine Kurjakovic
Pittsburgh
TSI Analyst, Americas
Office: +1 202-322-8845
Email: kurjakovic@thesteelindex.com