Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Assignment 1
Forecasting:Problem 1:-
year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
demand
50.7
55.4
59.6
61
58
60.5
66
70.5
77.8
87.6
94.8
100.7
Demand
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
10
12
Page | 1
14
MENG 5245
Assignment 1
80
60
40
20
0
0
10
12
14
X Variable 1
Y
Intercept
X Variable 1
Coefficients
42.31666667
4.292307692
Predicted Y
year
Demand
13
98.11666667
14
102.4089744
15
106.7012821
Page | 2
MENG 5245
Assignment 1
Regr. Data
Graph.
Data
Error
13
98.1166667
108
14
102.408974
15
106.701282
Sq. Error
Abs. %
Error
-9.88333
9.8833333 97.680278
10.07%
111
-8.59103
8.5910256 73.805722
8.39%
120
-13.2987
13.298718
176.8559
12.46%
-10.591
10.591026 116.11397
10.31%
BIAS
Abs.
Error
MAD
MSE
MAPE
C)
Correlation Coefficient:
Can be calculated manually using the equation:
Page | 3
MENG 5245
Assignment 1
Page | 4
MENG 5245
Assignment 1
Page | 5
MENG 5245
Assignment 1
Problem 4:-
&
Example:
If X = 30000
Make Decision Cost = 0.23*30000 = $ 6900
Buy Decision Cost = 4166.66 + 0.08*30000 = $ 6566.66
If X =25000
Make Decision Cost = 0.23*25000 = $ 5750
Page | 6
MENG 5245
Assignment 1
Problem 5:-
Now we calculate the equivalent uniform annual cost (EUAC) :EUAC = 35000(A/P,n=8,i=20%) + 2000 4000(A/F,n=8,i=20%)
From Tables shown in next page we can find that A/P = 0.26061 & A/F = 0.06061
So, EUAC = 10878.91 LE
Lets assume that X is the raw materials cost & Y is the cost of making 5000 units
So, Y = 72500 LE
So, X = 6.724 LE
So the Decision will not be affected as long as the raw materials cost is less than 6.72 LE
Page | 7
MENG 5245
Assignment 1
Problem 6:-
Buy Cost
7000 + 0.05 X
0.1 X
So, X = 140000 Doughnuts (must be sold annually so that both costs are equal)
For the Automatic machine:
Make Cost
13000 + 0.035 X
Buy Cost
=
0.1 X
So, X = 200000 Doughnuts (must be sold annually so that both costs are equal)
B) If X = 500000 Doughnuts the most profitable alternative is :
1- Semi-automatic Cost = 7000+(0.05*500000)=32000 LE
2- Automatic Cost = 13000+(0.035*500000)=305000 LE
3- Purchase Cost = 0.1*500000=50000 LE
Obviously the most profitable alternative is to make with the automatic machine.
C) To know the number of doughnuts required to produce the same net income for
both of the machines :7000 + 0.05 X = 13000 + 0.035 X
So, X= 400000 Doughnuts
For Semi-automatic the net income = 7000 + 0.05 (400000) = 27000 LE
For the automatic the net income = 13000 + 0.035(400000) = 27000 LE
Page | 8
MENG 5245
Assignment 1
Page | 9