MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

Khouzeima Moutanabbir Ph.D.
Department of mathematics and actuarial science, AUC

Spring 2014

MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

Contact information

Instructor : Khouzeima Moutanabbir Ph.D.

email address : k.moutanabbir@aucegypt.edu
Office Location SSE 1034
Office Hours : Monday 11 :00 am- 02 :00 pm
Phone : 2682
TA : TBA.

MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

Course description

A course in probability and statistics designed for computer

science and engineering students.

Probability is used to construct parametric models that often

arise in computer science and engineering problems.
Statistics is then used to

1. estimate the parameters of these models based on available

data ;
2. check the adequacy of the fitted models ;
3. and test specific hypotheses.

MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

Course description

Topics include
I

random variables and their probability distributions ;

expected value of functions of random variables ;

sampling distributions ;

maximum likelihood and least squares methods of estimation ;

statistical inference including hypothesis testing and interval

estimation.

MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

Course description

Reference and Materials :

1. Textbook : Mathematical Statistics with Applications
(Seventh Edition), 2008, by Wackerly, D., Mendenhall III, W.,
Scheaffer, R.
2. Reference : Probability and Statistics in Engineering and
Management Science, 3rd Edition William W. Hines and
Douglas C. Montgomery

MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

Exams

Three midterm-exams.

Comprehensive final exam.

MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

Exams

The marking scheme involves :

Exam 1
Exam 2
Exam 3
Final Exam

25%
25%
25%
25%

MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

Important notes

GO TO CLASS !...and Ask questions !

If you are unable to attend class, YOU ARE responsible to

find out what you missed.

Turn your mobile off.

Side talks are not acceptable during class.

MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

Course Outcomes :

After completing this course the students should be able to use

and apply the following concepts in a risk management context :
I

General Probability.

Univariate probability distributions.

Sampling distributions.

Estimation.

Hypothesis Testing.

MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

Course Outcomes :

General Probability :
I

Set functions including set notation and basic elements of

probability

Mutually exclusive events

Addition and multiplication rules

Independence of events

Combinatorial probability

Conditional probability

Bayes Theorem / Law of total probability.

MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

Course Outcomes :

Univariate probability distributions

I

Including binomial, negative binomial, geometric,

hypergeometric, Poisson, uniform, exponential, gamma, and
normal

Probability functions and probability density functions

Cumulative distribution functions

Variance and measures of dispersion

Moments and Moment generating functions

MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

Course Outcomes :

Sampling distributions
I

Sampling distributions related to the normal distribution.

The central limit theorem.

Cumulative distribution functions.

The normal approximation to the binomial distribution.

MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

Course Outcomes :

Estimation
I

Evaluating the goodness of a point estimator

Large and small sample confidence intervals for one and two
means

Large sample confidence intervals for one and two proportions

Methods of moments and maximum likelihood

MACT 317/3224 : Probability and Statistics

Course Outcomes :

Hypothesis Testing
I

Large and small sample hypothesis testing for one and two
means

Large sample hypothesis testing for one and two proportions