COPING WITH THE FUTURE: 1992-2022 A GUIDE TO THE TRENDS

By Mark Pomerantz @ 1992

Introduction: "Historians" have been writing scenarios of the

future for thousands of years. The prophecies of the Bible are one
example. After the revolution in Europe created by the
Reformation, and the increased secularization of daily life,
important figures such as Thomas More, and Erasmus, wrote Future
Novels or "Utopian" novels (after More's Utopia) In the Nineteenth
Century, Edward Bellamy wrote his famous Utopian Novel "Looking
Backward" about a citizen of the year 1888 who woke up in the
Boston of the year 2000. The tremendous impact of this book which
envisioned a socialist, "hi-tech" society was such that "Bellamy
Societys" sprang up in the U.S. and Europe. Famous 20th century
utopian novels tended to be "dystopias" or negative utopias. These
included Brave New World by Aldous Huxley, 1984 by George Orwell,
and (depending on how you looked at it) Walden II by Harvard's own
B.F. Skinner. An exceptional and unique (for its time) work was
"Last & First Men" by Englishman Olaf Stapledon, which was at once
science fiction and utopian novel, and which projected man's fate
a billion! years into the future.

Predicting the Future: The future scenario as a "scientific"

predictor was an idea that did not take shape until after World
War II and the onset of the Cold War. The RAND Corporation was
set up by the government primarily to run "war-fighting" scenarios
on their new computers. Herman Kahn, a graduate of this school of
prediction, and his Hudson Institute turned their attention to
topics other than war. Kahn's predictions for the next hundred
years based on unlimited exponential technological growth were
uniformily rosy. Robert Theobald, however, pointed out that in the
real world growth can only continue on an exponential curve for a
short-time before there is a crash back to reality. The shortage
of fossil fuels and the problems of environmental pollution were
factors that Kahn did not give enough importance to. Other
"Futurists" such as Paul Ehrlich and the "Club of Rome" later
predicted pessimistic outcomes based on overpopulation, the
capacity of the environment to cope with pollution and the
scarcity of vital natural resources. The frequent recessionary
cycles of the late 70's, 80's and 90's distorted the outcomes
predicted by both Kahn and the "pessimists".

Olaf Helmer took the field of scientific forecasting a step

further. In 1964 he applied "simulation gaming" and computer
models to predicting the future, that is to make forecasts with
sufficient estimates of probability to be taken seriously. He
convened six panels of experts using the so-called "Delphi"
technique. The fields studied were 1) scientific breakthroughs; 2)
population control; 3) automation; 4) space progress; 5) war
prevention; and 6) weapon systems.

Helmer states," For the more distant future,as the uncertainities

grow, increased reliance on intuitive ( as opposed to theory-
supported) contingency forecasts becomes inevitable...Since the
use of intuitive forecasting as a basis of long-range planning is
unavoidable, we should at least make an effort to obtain this
intuitive judgment as systematically as possible from ...experts
in the area of concern".

The Delphi Technique which Helmer utilized called for these

experts to fill out a questionnaire regarding their area of
expertise. The qustionnaire asked them to list major inventions
and scientific breakthroughs in their area, which they regarded as
urgently needed and feasible within the next 50 years. After
collation of the results a list of 49 items was generated. Each
expert was then asked to list the probability of these events
occuring in stated time periods ranging from 1963 to 2013, or
never. Initially, it was felt there was a reasonable consensus of
opinion on 10 of the 49 items. Ultimately, the questionnaire was
reworked to afford further consensus on additional items. (See
results in handout). Some of the predictions were quite accurate
the consensus, for example, of a manned lunar landing being in
1970 (as opposed to 1969 in actuality). Others were superseded by
political events such as the Vietnam War, including a prediction
of a manned permanent lunar base in 1982 and a manned landing on
Mars in 1985.

Another scientific method of future prediction is the use of

population cohorts to predict demand for products and services.
Population projections are not a new thing, but the application of
them to the real estate market gives one a better idea of what the
demand will be in the coming years. James Hughes of Rutgers
University looked at changes in household configurations and in
living arrangement choices. He also looked at changes in income by
age and household configuration. His research led him to believe
that household growth and housing demand would abate in the
1990's. There will particularly be a glut of smaller units and
condos and a great deal of difficulty for lower income families in
trading up to larger family homes.

Making Choices in Medical Research: Most futurists, though, have

been less quantitative in their outlook and relied even more than
Helmer's group on their own experience and intuition. In medical
research, for example, the amount of basic research being done is
so great and of such complexity that it cannot all possibly be
funded into the practical application stage. The timeline for
research, based on past projects is fairly well understood, so
that if projects are funded with high priorities, expert feel
fairly confident as to when they may be available to the public.
Based on the above experts predict a "cure" or at least a
stabilizing factor for AIDS by the year 2000. Other medical
research projects which are feasible given a maximum level of
support are gene splicing to eliminate certain genetic diseases,
increasingly successful use of fetal tissue to treat ailments
like Parkinson's Disease, and development of drugs that will
substantially slow the aging process. Choices will have to be
made, however, as to which of these and many other competing
projects will receive sufficient levels of funding to breed
short-term successes.

Corporations & Futurism: Many corporations have become interested

in futurism as tools in their market research and in understanding
so-called "workforce diversity". Faith Popcorn and her
BrainReserve group have been very successful in selling their
services to companies who want to market products to specific
sectors of the population. They hire BrainReserve for a variety of
functions ranging from a general update on "whats's hot!", to
coming up with a product concept, doing the market research, and
even collaborating on the advertising and packaging. Ms. Popcorn
has a list of ten current trends with which she tries to make new
products as consistent as possible. These trends include
"Egonomics" or taking care of oneself; "Cocooning" or withdrawing
more into the home and safeguarding privacy; "Fantasy Adventure"
or dreaming about it instead of doing it! or at least providing a
safer substitute for adventure; "Small Indulgences" , instead of
big indulgences (Bally or Joan & David shoes instead of a new
car); "Cashing Out" or leaving Wall Street behind for the home
office in Vermont; "Down Aging" or acting younger than your
parents did at your age;"Staying Alive", or eating less fat,
working out, and reducing stress; "Vigilante Consumer", or saving
dolphins from tuna nets, and eliminating tropical oils from foods;
"99 Lives" or increasing roles and responsibilities for the baby
boomers (like housing your parents and your grown-up out of work
children simultaneously); and "Save Our Society", or greening our
environment and our ethics.

If a new product embodies most of the above it is considered "On-

Trend" and Faith predicts it will be a winner.

In 1987, the Hudson Institute (which was previously mentioned

during Herman Kahn's tenure there) issued a report entitled
Workforce 2000. This report analyzed changing trends regarding the
composition of the workforce by 2000. There were several subsequent
follow-up reports from the Hudson Institute, involving the
composition of the Civil Service, and new affirmative action
strategies among other topics. The concern of business is that
immigration patterns, differing birthrates among ethnic groups,
and several other factors, may drastically change the nature of
the available work force in the coming century. The Workforce 2000
report stated, for example, "Only 15% of the new entrants to the
labor force over the next 13 years will be native white males,
compared to 47% in that category today." As pointed out, however,
by Harris Sussman, an independent consultant on workforce
diversity, "...more than 90% of the workforce of the year 2000 are
in the workforce today (1991). So when we talk about entrants
we're talking about fractions of 10%". Corporate America,
however, concerned about the level of education and skills that
will be available in the workforce, has made the study of cultural
diversity in the workplace a priority in its managerial planning
and training.
Population Shifts in the U.S.: While areas such as New England are
still mired in deep economic recession, other parts of the country
are doing much better. One economically "hot" area is Boise,
Idaho. The Dakotas are also doing well as far as economic
development and low unemployment. Oregon continues to draw many
families from California who have left due to that state's
economic problems. Portland has one of the prettiest, cleanest,
and safest downtowns in the country. It also has one of the best
downtown mass transit systems. The decayed Albina district is
becoming the focus of programs to renew it and deal with
unemployment and gang violence. In some of the better parts of the
city, housing is sill relatively cheap. Seattle has developed a
rapidly increasing trade with Japan and Asia. Children are being
taught sections about Japan in elementary schools there, in
recognition of this. Parts of the South such as Georgia, the
Carolinas, and the Gulf States will also continue a high growth
rate.

Mega-Corporations and National Governments in the Future:

Futurists are divided in their thinking on the impact of huge
multi-national corporations on the quality of life in the 21st
Century. One of the most pessimistic is W. Warren Wagar ( ). He
feels that the Japanese model of networks of intelocking
corporations will be copied world-wide and that a fairly small
number of megacorporations will emerge, perhaps as few as a dozen
in the industrialized (or post-industrialized) areas of the world.
These megacorps, will emerge out of a terrible era of economic
depression (1995-2001) and will be so powerful that they will
make national government irrelevant in economic decision making,
and in fact may almost completely control national governments.
He foresees this era (2000 until about 2040) as the highpoint of
corporate capitalism. It will be followed by a great depression
caused mainly by the increasingly lower remuneration of workers
for their labor with consequent decreases in buying power and
overproduction of goods and services. Wagar also feels that this
concentration of power in the hands of the megacorps (supported by
increasingly sophisticated computer data banks,) and the
increasing powerlessness of governments, will give them almost
total control over the lives of their employees.

Other futurists agree that the importance of national governments

will decrease somewhat (especially in Western Europe with the EC),
and there will be a great tendency towards "privatization" of
services, but they do not see the "megacorps" attaining the kind
of power that Wagar foresees. Jay & Stewart ( ) are probably the
most pessimistic regarding the ability of democratic national
governments to govern and deliver services effectively. They see
a strong anti-democratic tendency coming to the fore both in
America and Europe, resulting in a polarization of classes and a
decline in basic personal freedoms.

Early on in their scenario, Jay and Stewart outline what they see
as an effective economic program for the U.S. (writing in 1987.)
It consists of a tax increase for those in the top third tax
brackets; a 3% annual reduction in military expenditures for four
years; a 50% reduction in COLAS to social security and Federal and
military pensions during three years; and a temporary control on
imports designed to reverse the negative balance of payments all
coupled with increases in assistance to the poor designed to
reduce employment as well as suffering. Eventually, Social
Security cuts, additional excise taxes, and a VAT (value added
tax) are thought necessary to get the budget under control. In the
scenario, unfortunately, the lack of national will to deal with
the deficit and unemployment results in the defeat of all these
measures and the election of a conservative, repressive, race and
class polarizing administration.

We can expect that Bill Clinton in 1993 will attempt to implement

some similar measures to reduce unemployment and the deficit.
Since the balance of payments has improved somewhat there will be
no significant import controls. There will probably be no cuts in
Social Security though cuts in pension COLAS is a possibility
(Reagan did it.) There will be an income tax increase of some
sort, reduction of the military budget, and investment in
employment & training and infrastructure replacement. These latter
initiatives, unlike the former will aggravate the budget deficit
in the short term, while hopefully reducing unemployment.
Clinton's advisor Lester Thurow has made the distinction of a
"good deficit" and a "bad deficit" (sort of like good and bad
cholesterol). The "good deficit" results from investment that
brings in a rate of return higher than current interest rates
(like infrastructure improvements). The bad deficit is money that
is not recycled into improvements but basically goes for
consumption of luxury goods. Time will tell whether Clinton can
pull off the balancing act between reducing unemployment, reducing
the deficit and avoiding inflation and/or recession (or a deep
depression).

Decision Making in the Future: Robert Theobald in his "TEG's 1994:

An Anticipation of the Near Future", posited that by 1994 decision
making would be done through a process of "sapiential authority".
His projection was for an elite body of facilitators to guide
major decisions throughout the developed world. This group of
facilitators, the "Invisible College", would be selected through
a continuing process of psychological, aptitude, and intelligence
testing. The people, therefore, best suited and equipped to solve
the problems and make the decisions would automatically be put
into the positions of power. Theobald's projection has not, as
yet, come to pass. Instead the old system of hierarchical
authority remains dominant. (Kurt Vonnegut would probably be happy
about this since in his dystopian novel "Player Piano" the
Engineer/Technocrats who ran society were determined by their IQ
scores). There are some indications, particularly in the more
entrepreneurial areas, that sapiential authority will slowly
become more accepted. Governments and nations may turn more to
recruiting private contractors to solve major societal problems
through grant and contract offers. This should minimize the
importance of "dominance hierarchies". The City of Chelsea is a
current example of the privatization of education. How effectively
it works there remains to be seen.

Inproving Quality & Management: In the meantime corporations are

striving to improve their management and organizational
capacities. General Motors, for example, has eliminated many
superfluous levels of middle management. A new method of workplace
organization, based on Japanese models, is called Total Quality
Management. This system based on many of the ideas of the American
Edwards Deming, has allowed the Japanese auto industry to build a
better quality product, keep lower levels of inventory on hand,
thus reducing production costs, and take over market share
dominance of world auto production. Look for the Clinton
administration to try to incorporate many of the principles of TQM
into government.

The Significance of the Environment: Environmental problems will

take a preeminent share of attention in the next thirty years. The
major issues are air and water quality, preservation of species,
destruction of the rain forests and the greenhouse effect, and
preservation of the atmospheric ozone layer. Various cancers, for
example, have been proven to have environmental causation to some
degree. Continued protection of air and water quality is essential
to guard the public health. Serious water shortages will probably
develop in the Western U.S. due to the continuing depletion of
acquifers by new development. The greenhouse effect seems to be
well underway and will probably cause some significant climactic
changes in the next thirty years. This will probably lead to some
catastrophic flooding of Atlantic Coastal areas in the U.S. It
might be a good idea to sell your waterfront property before
then. In countries such as Chile, New Zealand, and Australia there
are already extensive national campaigns to help prevent UV light
caused skin cancers. These nations are the closest to the
significant holes in the ozone layer which have opened up over the
polar areas each winter. In fact the holes are seemingly getting
bigger and we should be seeing higher skin cancer rates in the
Northern U.S., as well. It has been found in Southern Chile that
not only are the skin cancer rates increasing but within those
increases there is a significantly higher rate of the more
dangerous melanomas. In addition to skin cancer cataracts and
other eye diseases caused by the sun have become a major concern.
There will be some fairly radical changes in recreational habits
as a result of this.

Food and Energy Production: The so-called "Green Revolution" of

the 60's and 70's (new seed strains and pesticides) and continuing
research has stabilized the food situation in many famine prone
countries such as China and India. Obviously, the drought prone
areas of Africa will be a continuing problem until proper large
scale soil management and agricultural practices are instituted.
In this country, the medium size family farms will continue to
struggle and be absorbed by the large agro- businesses. Smaller
speciality farms including those specializing in organically grown
and exotic produce should thrive. There should be a continuing
reduction in the consumption of red meat in the U.S. Experts
predict, however, (Macrae) that in the next thirty years or so,
advances in genetic engineering and cattle feeds may allow cattle
to be raised in static batteries like chickens (They will be able
to digest "feed" rather than having to graze). This will
significantly reduce the cost of beef production.

The trend,however, in the U.S. seems to be going more in the

direction of increasing vegetarianism. Vegetarianism in the U.S.
used to be equated with eccentricity. Now, aside from the moral
and ethical issues, there is an appreciation that from an
environmental standpoint raising beef is expensive and
inefficient, and from a health standpoint the large amount of fat
and protein contained in red meat is excessive to the body's
needs. More significantly this diet contributes to higher rates of
colon cancer and heart disease.

While, the diet of many Americans may consist less and less of red
and even white meats, there will be an ongoing emphasis on
so-called "gourmet foods". The eating habits of Americans have
been affected by the incredible increase in knowledge and
expertise regarding different types of cuisines that are now
available. This trend began to gain momentum anout fifteen years
ago and is still going strong. A typical small city today may have
Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Southwestern, Mexican, Cajun, and
Vegetarian restaurants in addition to the more traditional,
American, French, Chinese, and Italian. An important new food
trend will be healthy, low-fat "spa foods" and "gourmet
vegetarian" restaurants. Look for vegetarian fast food chains
fairly soon.

The most significant response to energy needs in the near future

should continue to be energy conservation. Improvements in solar
powered storage batteries will continue. No new large scale energy
resources will be developed in the U.S. until thermonuclear fusion
reactions are controllable as a power source. Experts have become
much less optimistic as to when this might occur. Estimates of
when practical large scale thermonuclear stations might come on
line have been pushed back as far as 2080 ( ). This may result in
a period of energy austerity for quite a while in the 21st
century.
Dealing with Russia: The rapid dissolution of the Soviet Empire
was a major shock to most Futurists. An exception was Norman
Macrae, Deputy Editor of the British Journal, The Economist. In
1984 ( ) he predicted that the Soviet Union would break up into
the "Confederation of People's Democratic Republics" in 1990!
Macrae feels that the huge State factories in Russia (employing
upwards of 20,000 people) will not be successful due to their
overly large size and the probability that they will eventually be
unionized and become even less competitive. If the State factories
are not competitive in their present form they will have to be
broken up into smaller units that will be competitive. The
importance of these factories is accentuated by the fact that the
workers are dependent on the factory organization to fulfill many
of their basic needs including food and clothing. The
infrastructure of many of the factories is old and will have to be
replaced, but the general education and skill levels of the
Russians is good and is a tremendous asset. Macrae feels that the
best Russian engineers and scientists, who previously worked in
the defense sector, are a tremendous resource. The software
programs and other technical innovations that these scientists
develop should become a major Russian export. American
corporations are already recruiting these personnel, as are
othernations. Last week (12/20/92 Russian security police removed
a large group of Russian nuclear scientists from a plane that was
going to take them to North Korea to work on their nuclear
program. There are markets in Russia for Western services
previously unknown there such as market research techniques, and
training in how to run Western style corporations and local
government agencies. There are some U.S. grants available to bring
entrepreneurial techniques to the Russians. Increasing their
productivity will be an important step in stabilizing the country,
relieving economic misery, and making sure that reactionary forces
do not reassert the "ancien regime".

Dealing with World Trouble Spots: Another of Macrae's predictions

was that by 1993 we would be entering a new era of gunboat
diplomacy, i.e., that we would intervene in several countries
where there was a complete power vaccum causing large scale
suffering. Our expedition to Somalia seems to be consistent with
that prediction. Other Futurists (Stableford) feel that the Mid-
East and later on the Amazon basin of South America will be
trouble spots that may result in a likely U.S. intervention. Most
of these experts see a future with the US and Russia working hand
in hand as the still dominant powers. It depends on how quickly
Russia reasserts its economic power to see whether it remains a
dominant world power. The next example of the new gunboat
diplomacy is likely to be Bosnia.

The Drug Problem: The drug problem in this country seems to be

getting worse instead of better. In spite of the huge drug "busts"
we are always hearing about, the problem does not seem to abate.
In fact the large drug busts, which temporarily disrupt the flow
seem to drive the prices up so high as to make increased drug
smuggling even more attractive. Some sort of legalization and/or
decriminalization, seems obviously to be called for. Many experts
(Jay) (Cetron) (Macrae ) agree but are divided as to method and
extent. Jay envisions that during the 90's a Presidential
Commission will call for the legalization of drugs. Cetron
considers various options such as decriminalization or
legalization of all drugs, but also the Dutch experience of
decriminalizing marijuana sale and use and going after the hard
drugs. Macrae envisions a time where hugh taxes will be levied on
the most dangerous and harmful drugs as disincentives, while new
drugs with less harmful side effects will bear no taxes. Cetron
points out that in citing a Consumers Union study that the
problems of crime, AIDS, TB and etc presently associated with
Heroin addiction are not the result of the addiction per se, but
of the narcotics laws that drive the prices up. "By far the most
serious deleterious effects of being a narcotics addict in the
U.S. today are the risk of arrest and imprisonment, infectious
disease, and impoverishment--all traceable to the narcotics laws,
to vigorous enforcement of those laws and the resulting excessive
black market prices..." The study also found that addicts living
in decent surroundings and using pure drugs showed none of the
medical problems associated with most addicts living in hand to
mouth situations. The ultimate solution of the drug problem will
probably bea combination of education and peerpressureagainst drug
use, development of less harmful substitutes, limited
decriminalization of certain drugs possibly in combination with
registration of addicts, and harsh taxation of the most harmful
and dangerous drugs.

America in 2000: By the year 2000 the Baby Boomers will be firmly
in the "driver's seat" of American culture. There will be a
reawakening of ethics, community values, and public (and possibly
even corporate) accountability.

The country will probably be recovering from a major recession or

possibly even a depression. Education and training will be a high
priority of the Federal government. Automation will have
eliminated many more jobs and unemployment will be seen as a major
societal danger.There will be a major revamping of the welfare
system with an emphasis on employing more low-income people. The
poor will have more options including entrepreneurial, cooperative
ventures that they may participate in, and single welfare mothers
will have subsidized day care that will allow them to go out to
work. There will also be "enterprise zones" in the inner cities to
attract economic development. The above will also reduce the
numbers of the homeless particularly homeless veterans and
graduates of the correctional system.

There may be decriminalization of some "softer" drugs, such as

marijuana, but there will be a major emphasis on squelching drug
abuse in the culture, especially in the schools. If there is
legalization of some hard drugs addicts will be forced to register
and submit to various types of monitoring and other invasions of
their privacy.

A National Health Insurance Program will be in effect and their

will be the beginnings of cutbacks and limitations in the Social
Security and Medicare programs. The State Mental Hospitals will be
closed and a new generation of psychotropic drugs with less
obvious and unpleasant side effects will be in common use. This
will reduce the number of chronically mentally ill who won't take
their medications and also the number of the homeless mentally
ill Medical schools will emphasize preventative medicine, "non-
traditional medicine", treatment of "the whole person", and
medical/ethical dilemmas much more than they do now. Eating habits
will continue to change. Fat substitutes will be used in more
products such as ice cream, less meat will be consumed and cancer
and heart disease rates will consequently drop siginificantly.
Stress reduction will be a common theme both in medicine and in
the workplace, almost co-equal with quality achievement as the
major theme in the workplace.

Many more people will work at home and with more flexible hours.
This will result from the greater emphasis on quality and
productivity and decreasing emphasis on traditional hierarchical
management styles.

The residential real estate market will continue to be cool,

except for waterfront, hotel/resort, or property in the path of
large development schemes. Commercial real estate will also be
slow and more and more companies will go to additional shifts and
letting some employees work at home. Environmental (recycling,
waste dump clean-up and etc. ) and medical technology (gene
splicing, fetal tissue applications, anti-aging research and etc.)
companies will be hot and will be good investment prospects, as
will hospitality related enterprises. New residential real estate
development will be smaller scale, more cooperative, more energy
and resource efficient. New development will physically resemble
the small towns of the early 20th century with a grid layout, a
"Main Street", an "Opera House", and a "Town Common".

Co-Housing ventures, consisting of detached or townhouses built

with a shared common area for dining, education/daycare, and
socializing will expand and become more popular. The community
ethic where a group with similar interests and values comes
together to plan a community will also have become more
influential. More and more small entrepreneurs will be sharing
communal offices. More and more families will be sharing
entertainment, food preparation, day care etc.

City centers will have increased limitations on automobiles,

particularly where auto created smog approaches danger levels. New
generation mass transit systems will be going on-line or in
development including 300 mph mag-lev trains. The National Parks
will continue to be inundated in the summer time and more park
areas will have limits on numbers of tourists and times they are
open. Fires in the Western U.S. will continue to become more
serious as the Greenhouse Effect intensifies and summers become
hotter and droughts increase.
Electric cars will be much more important in 2000. Buick is
already converting its Reatta plant to manufacture electric cars
in 1994-95. Cars will have all plastic bodies and new cheap
computer chips will make on-board navigation computers common.
Wiring will soon be replaced by fibre-optics and cars will have
electronic steering and suspensions.

Palm-top computers with the capabilities of today's lap-tops will

be available. A desktop telecommunications device combining a TV,
VCR, computer, telephone, home command center/security system, fax
machine, and etc., will be common. Fibre-optic networks will allow
one to call up on his telecommunications screen any available
movie or TV program he wants, when he wants. TV's will be "high
definition" allowing pictures with much greater detail to be
transmitted. "Virtual Reality" programs will be available with TV
or telecommunicator that will allow the user to don a special
glove and helmet and interact directly "within" the computer.

By 2000 the aging of the population will provide increasing

employment opportunities for nurses, EMT's, bio-tech engineers,
pharmacists, and physical therapists. These are all fields for
which there is already strong demand in 1992. Computer innovations
will also reinforce the demand for electrical engineers, computer
serivicing personnel, mathematicians, and advanced programmers.
New types of jobs will include medical ethicists, people who
combine scientific/technical skills with foreign language
expertise, and people who restore deforested areas and polluted
bodies of water to their former state including replenishing the
destroyed species. Radon removal technicians will also be in
demand.

In Europe,the EC will be getting the kinks out and the European

Parliament will have great power over economic decisions. There
will be standardization of technology all over Erurope and
national tarrif barriers will have been dropped since 1/1/93. Some
agricultural producers, in particular, such as French farmers who
cant compete price-wise with Spanish farmers, willbe hurt. But all
in all, the EC will have become an economic juggernaut.

The Japanese in 2000 will be running into some problems based on

a very rapidly aging population, market saturatation, increasingly
vocal demands for higher wages, and competition from other Asian
countries. The Japanese will try to meet these challenges by
giving even more attention to quality, continuing to target hot
new consumer products such as hi-definition TV, building plants in
newly industrializing Asian countries to hold down costs, and by
creating a new Asian economic coalition with Japan as the
acknowledged leader.

China will try to create a massive export driven economy by

creating many new industrial centers all along its coasts. There
should be a truly massive trade between the U.S. and China by
2000.

The Eastern Europeans in spite of their massive economic and

political problems should continue down the road toward democracy.
Mainly because they have a truly voracious appetite for Western
style freedoms and also Western style prosperity.

The above scenario is somewhat optimistic. Some futurists are less

sanguine about the ability of the American electorate to recognize
needed changes. Both Britain and the U.S. had so-called
"conservative" governments in the 1980's. Prime Minister Thatcher
implemented austerity measures while acknowleding Britain was in
bad economic shape. President Reagan implemented austerity
measures for the poor, denied the U.S. had any serious problems
and created a climate where the U.S. economy was artificially
stimulated and seemed better than it really was. Skillful measures
are needed in the U.S. to reduce the deficit while also reducing
unemployment and poverty. If they are not implemented there may be
a major increase in crime and violence among the poor and a
consequent repressive conservative backlash.

The successes of certain immigrant groups to the U.S., such as the

Koreans, could be studied and used as models to assist the poor.
The relatively well educated Koreans arrived in this country,
worked cooperativelt in an extended family structure, gave each
other seed money capital loans, moved into areas where there was
a poorly served demand and a need for services, and strove to
provide better quality services, whether fish, produce, or higher
tech services. Friction with other poor minority groups arose
mainly because the Koreans did not generally hire employees from
the indigenous communities. Economic coops could be organized to
train other groups how to replicate the success of the Koreans and
become successful entrpreneurs.
We are also assuming that despite the many pitfalls and hardships
being faced by the Russian and Easdtern European peoples, that
they will retain the new democratic structures and begin to thrive
and prosper. This is based on the perception that there is a great
appetite for "western style" freedoms and that the people of the
East will struggle mightily to satisfy this appetite. The Russian
emigres who have come to Boston seem to be a good example of this.

America in 2022: Americans will have landed on Mars and created a

permanent Moon Base. There will be advances in the quest for
controlled fusion power, but no practical system as yet. Most
birth defects will have been eliminated by gene splicing and
engineering.The cancer rate will also be down dramatically, and
most cancers will ultimately be cured. The drug problem will
mainly be eliminated. Synthetic endorphin like compounds will have
been developed with few harmful side effects. Recreational use of
cocaine, heroin and other hard drugs will have been almost
eliminated. These substances while legal, will bear very heavy
taxes in recognition of their potential harm.

Development of controlled nuclear fusion plants will be well

advanced but still years away from practical deployment.
Consequently, there will be a period of semi-austerity due to
shortages of energy and natural resources. Intensive research will
be conducted on sophisticated recycling systems and ways of
replenishing resources. Shortages of powerand natural resources
have enforced a much more cooperative national ethic. There will
be a much smaller ratio of cars to individuals in the U.S.
Extensive reliance will be placed on mass transit.

New York City and Los Angeles have major flooding problems due to
the higher sea levels caused by the Greenhouse Effect. Coastal
areas of Texas, Louisiana, and Florida are being submerged and
will be obliterated in the next 20 years. The Greenhouse Effect
has caused major problems with agro-business in the U.S.,
especially in the grain belt of Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska. The
big winners in agriculture are the Russians, since the Siberian
steppes have become much more fertile. Bio-technology is also
producing new starins of grain, genetically modified fish, and
increasing food yields a great deal. Kelp is now being farmed from
the sea on a very large scale , causing some major international
maritime disputes.

The trend towards working at home has intensified. Children have

the option of beginning to work after they pass examinations at
the age of 12. Their computer proficiency allows them to perform
many kinds of marketable functions. They can elect to return to
school later. Older people also continue to perform jobs into
their seventies or even their eighties. This allows many people in
their twenties and thirties to take extended leaves of absence to
be with their young children and undertake personal projects.

A Central World Bank will have been established to regulate

national currencies, particularly in the poorer countries. This
"Bank" will also give grants to private entrepreneurs to improve
living conditions in these countries and will increase the real
income in these countries substantially.

Crime will be controlled by more sophisticated psychological

conditioning and screening of potentially troublesome individuals.
Peer pressure will also be used to curb crime. This will have to
be balanced carefully against individual liberties.

The Middle East will continue to be a trouble spot for many years
to come. Terrorism and nuclear proliferation are dangers that will
still be in existence.

There will exist a "negative income tax" or "guaranteed annual

income" (First proposed by Robert Theobald in the early 60's as
"basic economic security for the poor"). This will reflect a
change of attitude that idle people are "bad" and not deserving of
assistance except very grudgingly.

Holographic TV will be commonplace,as will extremely sophisticated

"Virtual Reality" sets. Many people may choose to spend large
portions of their lives in this manner.
America in 2100 and Beyond: The Age of Capital will largely be
over. Most Americans will earn roughly the same amount, though
some may earn more by a factor of two or three. Cheap Fusion
energy and sophisticated resource replenishment techniques will
allow a high quality of life for almost all Americans. Technology
will be largely "invisible". There will be few large cities and
from the air, the landscape will appear to be largely rustic.
Miniaturization and minimalization will have been carried to great
extremes.
There will be a great revival of spiritual values. Possessions
will be cherished only if they are finely crafted and have some
deeper personal meaning. People will adopt many of the surface
customs and mores, including types of dress and furnishings of
their ancestors, as a way of making a connection with their past.
So-called "hi-tech" items will not be valued highly since it will
be fashionable to disguise technology. There will also have been
a revulsion against the sophisticated virtual reality set-ups of
the late 21st Century as well against synthetic memory and brain
enhancing drugs.

There will be much less disparity of wealth between the countries

of the Western Hemisphere and the old Third World countries.
Developments in educational technology, communications, and
psychology will insure virtually equal levels of education for
all.

Most former national governments will have disappeared, replaced

by loose national confederations with more powerful local
governments. These will be run on a cooperative, Town Meeting
style.

Finally, there will be a good chance that we will have begun to

detect messages from other civilizations, in other parts of the
Universe, and we may be beginning to make plans to meet them.