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THREE APPROACHES TO SUCCEED AS AN INVESTOR
As Charles Ellis argued, it appears that there are three different ways of earning superior risk‐
adjusted returns on the stock market. The first one is physically difficult, the second one is
intellectually difficult, and the third one is psychologically difficult.
Physically Difficult Approach
Many investors seem to follow this approach, wittingly or unwittingly. They look at newspaper and
financial to learn about new issues, they visit the offices of brokers to get advice and applications forms,
and they regularly apply in the primary market. They follow the budget announcements intently, they
read CMIE reports to learn about the developments in the economy and various industrial sectors, they
read investment columns written by the so‐called ‘expert’, they follow developments in companies, they
solicit information from company executives, they read the columns in technical analysis, and they
attend seminars and conferences. In a nutshell, they apply themselves assiduously, diligently , and even
doggedly. They operate on the premise that if they can be a step ahead of others, they will outperform
the market.
The physically difficult approach seems to have worked reasonably well for most of the investors in India
since the late 1970s to the early 1990s, for three principal reasons:
1. Typically, issues in the primary market have been priced very attractively.
2. The secondary market, thanks to limited competitions tell almost 1991, was characterized by
numerous inefficiencies that proved rewarding opportunities to the diligent investor.
3. An advancing price‐earning multiple, in general, bailed out even inept investors.
Things, however, have changed from mud‐1995. The opportunities for subscribing to issues in the
primary market have substantially dried up as companies, quite understandably, are placing securities
with institutional investors at prices that are fairly close to the prevailing market prices. Likewise, the
scope for earning superior returns in the secondary market has diminished as the degree of competition
and efficiency is increasing, thanks to the emergence of hundreds of new institutional players (mutual
funds, foreign institutional investors, merchant banking organizations, corporate bodies) and millions of
new individuals investors. Finally, the prospects of fluctuating price‐earnings multiple seem to be
greater than the prospects of a rise in the price earnings multiple.
Intellectually Difficult Approach
The intellectually difficult approach to successful investing calls for developing a prefunds understanding
of the nature of investments and hammering out a strategy based on superior insights. This approach
has been followed mainly be the highly talented investors who have an exceptional ability, a rare
perceptiveness, an unusual skill , or a touch of clairvoyance. Such a gift has been displayed by investors
like Benjamin Graham, John Maynard Keynes, Jhon Templeton, George Soros, Warren Buffett, Phil
Fisher, Peter Lynch, and others.
Benjamin Graham, widely acclaimed as the father of modern security analysis, was an exceptionally
gifted quantitative navigator who relied on hard financial facts and religiously applied the margin of
safety’ principle. John Maynard Keynes, arguably the most influential economist of the 20th Century,
achieved considerable investment success on the basis of his sharp insights into market psychology.
John Templeton had an unusual feel for bargain stocks and achieved remarkable success with the help
of bargain stock investing. Warren Buffett, the most successful stock market investor of our times, it the
quintessential long term value investor. George Soros, a phenomenally successful speculator, developed
and applied a special insight which he labels as the ‘reflexivity’ principle. Phil Fisher, a prominent growth
stock advocate, displayed a rate ability with regard to investing in growth stocks . Peter Lynch, perhaps
the most widely read investments guru in recent years, has performed exceptionally well, thanks to a
rare degree of openness and flexibility in his approach.
The intellectually difficult approach calls for a special talent that is diligently honed and nurtured
over time. Obviously, it can be practiced only by a select few and you should have the objectivity to
discern whether you can join this elite club. Remember that many investors unrealistically believe that
they have a rare gift because the stock market provides and exceptionally fertile environment for self
deception. Participants in the stock market can easily live in a world of make believe by accepting
confirming evidence and rejecting contradictory evidence. As David Dreman says:
“Under Conditions of anxiety and uncertainty, with a vast interacting information grid, the market can become a giant
Rorschach test, allowing the investor to see any pattern that he wishes...experts cannot only analyze information; they can also
find relationships that aren’t there‐‐‐a phenomenon called illusory correlation.”
Psychologically Difficult Approach
The stock market is periodically swayed by two basic human emotions, viz. greed and fear. When greed
an euphoria sweep the market prices rise to dizzy heights. On the other hand, when fear and despair
envelop the market, prices fall to abysmally low levels. If you can surmount these emotions which can
warp your judgment, create distortions in your thinking, and induce you to commit follies, you are likey
to achieve superior investments results.
The psychologically difficult approach essentially calls for finding ways and means of substantially
overcoming fear and greed. Its operational guidelines are as follows:
Develop an investments policy and adhere to it consistently
Do not try to forecast stock prices
Rely more on hard numbers and less on judgment
Maintain a certain distance from the marketplace
Face uncertainly with equanimity
These guidelines look simple, but they are psychologically difficult to follow. Yet, for the bulk of the
investors this appears to be only sensible approach to improve the odds of their investment
performance. You have to assiduously and consciously cultivate certain qualities, discussed in
the preceding chapter, to follow this approach