‘‘Moving median with trend and seasonality’’

Eleftherios Giovanis*

* Current student in Master program of “Economics” in University of Macedonia ,

Department of Economics, Thessaloniki, Greece
* Current student in Master of program “Quality Assurance” in Hellenic Open University,
School of Science & Technology , Patra, Greece

Abstract

In this paper is examined and presented an alternative method in time-series analysis and

forecasting. In the specific project is being a concentration of certain ideas that I had as a

student in the third and fourth year of my undergraduate studies in the Economic Science, as I

had the unique experience of learning the basic econometrics and the time-series analysis and

forecasting. Consequently in this work I am trying to attribute with the simplest presentation

and easiest way ,the methodology of moving median method, as it can be proved very easy

comprehensible to everyone, because mathematics that are been used can be easy understood .

It can be useful to financial analysts and can be applied in microeconomics and

macroeconomics.

Key words: basic econometrics, moving median, forecasting, trend, seasonality

Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=969012

1. Introduction

In this paper is not being an effort to prove that moving method is a better method

than the other already known methods , neither to replace any other method, neither to

propose it as the most optimum, after each method have the advantages and its

disadvantages, methods as the moving average, the linear moving average, the simple and

double exponential smoothing, the Winter' s model, as well as the ARIMA models. The

method of moving median that is proposed in this work with various variants, can in certain

cases be proved very useful and reliable, while in other cases can be proved unreliable and

disastrous. Also it does not constitute an original method, because very simply it is based, if

no in entire methodology, but in very great degree in previous methods and it does not

constitute a scientific method based on mathematical theorems, but it is based on empirical

content. In the second part of the specific work is analyzed the trend of the time- series as

well as the decomposition of them. They are been received various time-series as the shares

that negotiate in the Athens exchange stock market, , but also macroeconomic sizes, the

inflation in some countries of European Union. The analysis is concentrated in 2-3 time-

series data, because the scope of this paper is to be presented the methodology and not the

reliability test of that method. Some measures of error that will be used are the MdAD

(median absolute deviation) or the alternative (MdAPE) Median Absolute Percentage Error

(Armstrong and Collopy: 1992; Jarrett:1993,.p. 43-45).

Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=969012

2. Moving median with trend and seasonality

First way

In this part is presented an alternative method of time-series forecasting that takes into

consideration, as other methods do, the trend and the seasonality (decomposition). Initially is

examined the methodology real examples of time-series as prices from shares that negotiates

in the Athens exchange stock market, the inflation in some countries of European Union, as

well as other seasonal data, as monthly, four-month periods and daily data. The results are

presented in the consecutively tables in the text.

Somehow thus the analysis begins with the share of telecommunication company

“COSMOTE” during the period 02 January 2007 – 25 February 2007 (Table 1-Appendix).

The forecasting will be made for the period 26 February 2007- 1 May 2007. In column (1) of

Table 1 are the actual prices and in column (4) of the same table F presents the predicted

prices. Firstly is presented the methodology of moving median with trend and seasonality

with two ways and then is presented the improved method of moving median .

The analysis is:

1st STEP

Because the first example is concerning the Exchange stock market, and more specific

the share prices of :COSMOTE”, so the median five periods is the appropriate measure for

that case, because stock market is based in five working days ,from Monday to Friday, with

the exception of the holidays. Provided that there are 40 periods is obtained the median of

five first periods and the median of five last periods. The mathematical type of median for the

period 02-08 /6Jan / 2007 is (n + 1) /2, where n = the observations which in that case are 5

days. So it is (n + 1) /2 = (5+1) /2 = 6/2= 3. The third period of date 02-08 /Jan / 2007 is the

2
third price and this is the price 22.98. Similarly for the median of five last periods, is the

period 21-27/ Feb /2007.6 The median is the price 23.06.

2nd STEP

Χ1 − Χ 2
Consequently the trend results from: (1)
10

,where Χ1 = the median of the last five periods

Χ2 = the median of the first five periods

and the 10 it results from the sum of periods, after is examined the first five periods and

the five last ones so it is 5+5=10.

Χ1 − Χ 2 23.06 − 22.98 0.08

= = = 0.008
10 10 10

The 0.008 is the trend of the time-series.

3rd STEP

The formula for the trend smoothing is.

Trend smoothing = Actual price + 3*trend.

So for example for the period 2 January 2007 will be:

22.8 + 3*0.008 = 22.824

where 22.8 is the actual price , the 0.008 results from relation (1) and number 3 results as

follows: There are five working days so there are five periods Consequently the numerator is

the sum of five periods, first, second, third and so on: The denominator is five, because is

been found the moving median of five periods.

1+ 2 + 3 + 4 + 5
(2)
5

3
, where the result of relation (2) is number 3.

For example the trend smoothing for the next period will be:

22.24 + 3*0.008 = 22.264

The results are presented in column (2) with the letter S in table 1.

4th STEP

The next step is to divide column (1) at column (2).

Column(1)
Column (3) = (3)
Column(2)

5th STEP

From column (3) can be found the seasonal indicators, which is the aggregation of the

data which respond in the first day of season and more specific is sum of dates 2- 9-16-23-30

January and 6-13-21 February 2007 where can be find the seasonal indicator for the first day

of the season and with the same way can be found the other indicators. When all of seasonal

indices have been found then the sum of them (because there are five working days in the

week) must be equal to five. If they are not equal to five then the following relation must be

applied to obtain the adjusted seasonal indicators

5/sum of seasonal indicators (4)

Then each of the five indicators is multiplied with the result of the relation (4)

(see table 2).

4
6th STEP

Thus the final forecasting is

Forecasting = Actual price of previous period+ trend*the adjusted seasonal indicator (5)

For example the forecasting of period 28/ Feb/2007 is:

Forecasting = 22.2 + 0.008*0.999996 = 22.208.

The forecasting of period 01/ May/2007 is:

Forecasting = 22.00 + 0.008*0.999996 = 22.008 (Table 2).

Second way

Now in this part is examined the forecasting moving median of trend and seasonality

applying the second way for the same prices of “COSMOTE” enterprise.

1st STEP

It is exactly the same with the first way

2nd STEP

As in the previous way is been calculated the moving median of the first five periods and of

the last five periods. Then the following formula is applied.

Χ1 − Χ 2 23.06 − 22.98 0.08

= = = 0.0054
15 15 15

, where five is the sum of 1+2+3+4+5. because is reported to five working days, so 0.0054 is

the trend.

3rd STEP

The smoothing is being made as:

Moving median of first five periods – 3*trend (1)

5
 1+ 2 + 3 + 4 + 5
,where number 3 is obtained from the relation =3
5

22.98 – 3*0.0054 = 22.9638

So the smoothing is

S = the result of (1) + (trend * period 1), where period 1 is in column (5). For example 2

February 2007 will be:

S= 22.9638 + (0.0054*1) = 22.9692 (Column 2, Table 4).

4th STEP

The next step is to divide column (1) at column (2).

Column(1)
Column (3) =
Column(2)

5th STEP

It is exactly the same with the first way (Table 5).

6th STEP

It is exactly the same with the previous way So the forecasting will be for the date 28/

Feb/2007.

Forecasting = 22.2 + 0.0054*0,996579= 22.205

In tables 7-9 and 10-12 are presented the results for the first and second way respectively for

the share prices of “National Bank of Greece”. The trend is -0.158.

6
3. Improved moving median method with trend and seasonality

The only difference in this method, in relation with the first method, is the second step, where

is the finding of the trend. The steps for the improved method are:

Χ1+ Χ2+ Χ3+ Χ4+ Χ5+ Χ6+ Χ7+ Χ8

- X8 (1)
n

and n= number of variables which in this case are 8. So for the “National bank of Greece is

X1 = 36.26, X2 =36.2, X3 = 36.96, X4 = 36.7, X5 = 34.7, X6 = 33.62, X7 = 35.32 and X8 =

34.68. So the result from relation 1 is 0.87 and then 0.87 is divided by 15 which 15 is the

sum of 1+2+3+4+5, because is reported to five working days. The trend is 0.058. Then can be

applied either the first way either the second (Tables 13-15 for the 1st way and Table 16-18

for the 2nd way).

7
 4. Differences between simple moving median method with trend and seasonality

and improved method and between the seasonality.

Now the last example concerns the improved moving median for the inflation rate of

Belgium (Wirtz) . and the simple moving median and a major difference and also a problem

that can be appear . So in table 29 there are the inflation rates for Belgium during the period

January 2004 – December 2005. The one dilemma that can be arise is what seasonality

presents that data. The graph which was created with the help of Minitab software (Graph 1)

can show a picture about the behaviour of data.

So someone can say that there is a 5-period seasonality. Of course someone can say

that there is logically , without the help of Graph 1 , 12-period seasonality . The tables 19-21

report the results with 5-period seasonality and the tables 22-24 report the results with 12-

period seasonality. But before analysis go to that point first should be noted the difference

between the simple and improved method. With 12- period seasonality the trend for the

simple moving median method is

Χ1 − Χ 2 2.7 − 2.05 0.65

= = = 0.027
24 24 24

, where 2.05 is the average of the 6th and 7th price , because it is already known that

moving median of 12 periods = (n+1)/2 = 13/2 = 6.5. Similarly for the 2.7 number. So the

trend with the simple method and more specifically with the 1st way is positive. Let’s see the

improved method.

Χ1 + Χ 2 2.05 + 2.7 4.75

− X2 = − 2 .7 = − 2 .7
2 2 2

= −0.325

8
and -0.325 is divided with 78 which is the sum of 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11+12 = 78. So

it is -0.325/78 = -0.0041, which is the trend. Notice that in that case the trend is negative. Also

the relation

1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 10 + 11 + 12
=6.5 . The following step are known.
12

5. Conclusion

The methods that are proposed here do not constitute an original work, but it could be

said that they can constitute an alte6rnative method of forecasting, an alternative way time-

series estimation . These methods constitute an alternative opinion with regard to the

estimation of forecasting. This work does not aim to present a method of estimation or

correction of other econometric models because it is a very simple method and in many times

not so reliable, but it can be used as an alternative tool.

References

Armstrong J.S. and Collopy F.,1992, “Error Measures For Generalizing About
Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons”, Reprinted with permission
from International Journal of Forecasting, 8 : 69-80.

Jarrett J., 1993“Methods of forecasts for economic and enterprising decisions”, Gutenberg ,
1st Edition- Athens.

Wirtz C., 2006, Statistics in focus,Economy and Finance, Harmonized

Indices of Consumer Prices, EUROSTAT:

SOURCES:

The shares prices was been obtained by the website of newspaper «ELEFTHEROTIPIA» www.enet.gr

, which data are being prepared by company ALPHA TRUST.

9
Appendix
TABLE 1
(Results from the moving median method with trend and seasonality-1st way).
Date Actual S (3) F Period Date Actual (2) (3) F Period
price1 (2) (4) (5) price (4) (5)
(1) (1)
2/1/2007 22.8 22.824 0.9989 1 30/1/2007 23.4 23.424 0.9990 23.388 21
3/1/2007 22.24 22.264 0.9989 22.808 2 31/1/2007 23.66 23.684 0.9990 23.408 22
4/1/2007 22.98 23.004 0.9990 22.248 3 1/2/2007 23.5 23.524 0.9990 23.668 23
5/1/2007 23 23.024 0.9990 22.988 4 2/2/2007 23.5 23.524 0.9990 23.508 24
8/1/2007 23.6 23.624 0.9990 23.008 5 5/2/2007 23.4 23.424 0.9990 23.508 25
9/1/2007 23.02 23.044 0.9990 23.608 6 6/2/2007 23.18 23.204 0.9990 23.408 26
10/1/2007 22.6 22.624 0.9989 23.028 7 7/2/2007 23.1 23.124 0.9990 23.188 27
11/1/2007 22.92 22.944 0.9990 22.608 8 8/2/2007 23 23.024 0.9990 23.108 28
12/1/2007 23.1 23.124 0.9990 22.928 9 9/2/2007 23 23.024 0.9990 23.008 29
15/1/2007 23.34 23.364 0.9990 23.108 10 12/2/2007 22.8 22.824 0.9989 23.008 30
16/1/2007 23.62 23.644 0.9990 23.348 11 13/2/2007 22.5 22.524 0.9989 22.808 31
17/1/2007 23.86 23.884 0.9990 23.628 12 14/2/2007 22.6 22.624 0.9989 22.508 32
18/1/2007 24 24.024 0.9990 23.868 13 15/2/2007 22.8 22.824 0.9989 22.608 33
19/1/2007 24.2 24.224 0.9990 24.008 14 16/2/2007 22.6 22.624 0.9989 22.808 34
22/1/2007 24 24.024 0.9990 24.208 15 20/2/2007 22.88 22.904 0.9990 22.608 35
23/1/2007 23.4 23.424 0.9990 24.008 16 21/2/2007 22.32 22.344 0.9989 22.888 36
24/1/2007 23.6 23.624 0.9990 23.408 17 22/2/2007 22.6 22.624 0.9989 22.328 37
25/1/2007 23.2 23.224 0.9990 23.608 18 23/2/2007 23.06 23.084 0.9990 22.608 38
26/1/2007 22.9 22.924 0.9990 23.208 19 26/2/2007 22.8 22.824 0.9989 23.068 39
29/1/2007 23.38 23.404 0.9990 22.908 20 27/2/2007 22.2 22.224 0.9989 22.808 40
1. Source: www.enet.gr

TABLE 2
Seasonal and adjusted seasonal indicators
initial seasonal
indicators adjusted seasonal indicators.
0.998959 0.999996
0.998958 0.999996
0.998966 1.000003
0.998963 1.000001
0.998966 1.000004
Sum = 4,994812 Sum = 5
5/4.99812 =1,001039

TABLE 3
Actual and forecasting prices
Actual prices
Forecasting prices
22.00 22.208
22.00 22.008

10
 TABLE 4
(Results from the moving median method with trend and seasonality-2nd way).
Date Actual S (3) F Period Date Actual (2) (3) F Period
price1 (2) (4) (5) price (4) (5)
(1) (1)
2/1/2007 22.8 22.9692 0.992634 1 30/1/2007 23.4 23.0772 1.013988 23.38538 21
3/1/2007 22.24 22.9746 0.968026 22.80538 2 31/1/2007 23.66 23.0826 1.025015 23.40538 22
4/1/2007 22.98 22.98 1 22.24542 3 1/2/2007 23.5 23.088 1.017845 23.66542 23
5/1/2007 23 22.9854 1.000635 22.9854 4 2/2/2007 23.5 23.0934 1.017607 23.5054 24
8/1/2007 23.6 22.9908 1.026498 23.00542 5 5/2/2007 23.4 23.0988 1.01304 23.50542 25
9/1/2007 23.02 22.9962 1.001035 23.60538 6 6/2/2007 23.18 23.1042 1.003281 23.40538 26
10/1/2007 22.6 23.0016 0.98254 23.02538 7 7/2/2007 23.1 23.1096 0.999585 23.18538 27
11/1/2007 22.92 23.007 0.996219 22.60542 8 8/2/2007 23 23.115 0.995025 23.10542 28
12/1/2007 23.1 23.0124 1.003807 22.9254 9 9/2/2007 23 23.1204 0.994792 23.0054 29
15/1/2007 23.34 23.0178 1.013998 23.10542 10 12/2/2007 22.8 23.1258 0.985912 23.00542 30
16/1/2007 23.62 23.0232 1.025922 23.34538 11 13/2/2007 22.5 23.1312 0.972712 22.80538 31
17/1/2007 23.86 23.0286 1.036103 23.62538 12 14/2/2007 22.6 23.1366 0.976807 22.50538 32
18/1/2007 24 23.034 1.041938 23.86542 13 15/2/2007 22.8 23.142 0.985222 22.60542 33
19/1/2007 24.2 23.0394 1.050375 24.0054 14 16/2/2007 22.6 23.1474 0.976352 22.8054 34
22/1/2007 24 23.0448 1.04145 24.20542 15 20/2/2007 22.88 23.1528 0.988217 22.60542 35
23/1/2007 23.4 23.0502 1.015176 24.00538 16 21/2/2007 22.32 23.1582 0.963805 22.88538 36
24/1/2007 23.6 23.0556 1.023612 23.40538 17 22/2/2007 22.6 23.1636 0.975669 22.32538 37
25/1/2007 23.2 23.061 1.006027 23.60542 18 23/2/2007 23.06 23.169 0.995295 22.60542 38
26/1/2007 22.9 23.0664 0.992786 23.2054 19 26/2/2007 22.8 23.1744 0.983844 23.0654 39
29/1/2007 23.38 23.0718 1.013358 22.90542 20 27/2/2007 22.2 23.1798 0.95773 22.80542 40
1. Source: www.enet.gr

TABLE 5
Seasonal and adjusted seasonal indicators
initial seasonal
indicators adjusted seasonal indicators.
0.998569 0.996728
0.99842 0.996579
1.004696 1.002844
1.002525 1.000676
1.005025 1.003172
Sum = 5,009235 Sum = 5

5/5,009235=0,998156

TABLE 6
Actual and forecasting prices
Actual prices
Forecasting prices
22.00 22.205
22.00 22.005

11
 TABLE 7
(Results from the moving median method with trend and seasonality-1st way for “National Bank
of Greece”).
Date Actual S (3) F Period Date Actual S (3) F Period
price1 (2) (4) (5) price (2) (4) (5)
(1) (1)
1/11/2006 36 35.526 1.01334 1 29/11/2006 35.9 35.426 1.01338 35.042 21
2/11/2006 35.66 35.186 1.01347 35.842 2 30/11/2006 34.62 34.146 1.01388 35.742 22
3/11/2006 36.26 35.786 1.01325 35.502 3 1/12/2006 34.7 34.226 1.01385 34.462 23
6/11/2006 35.92 35.446 1.01337 36.102 4 4/12/2006 34.3 33.826 1.01401 34.542 24
7/11/2006 36.2 35.726 1.01327 35.762 5 5/12/2006 33.72 33.246 1.01426 34.142 25
8/11/2006 36.2 35.726 1.01327 36.042 6 6/12/2006 34.1 33.626 1.01410 33.562 26
9/11/2006 36.04 35.566 1.01333 36.042 7 7/12/2006 34.2 33.726 1.01405 33.942 27
10/11/2006 36.2 35.726 1.01327 35.882 8 8/12/2006 33.62 33.146 1.01430 34.042 28
13/11/2006 36 35.526 1.01334 36.042 9 11/12/2006 34.1 33.626 1.01410 33.462 29
14/11/2006 36.4 35.926 1.01319 35.842 10 12/12/2006 34.16 33.686 1.01407 33.942 30
15/11/2006 36.9 36.426 1.01301 36.242 11 13/12/2006 34.6 34.126 1.01389 34.002 31
16/11/2006 36.98 36.506 1.01298 36.742 12 14/12/2006 34.96 34.486 1.01374 34.442 32
17/11/2006 36.96 36.486 1.01299 36.822 13 15/12/2006 35.32 34.846 1.01360 34.802 33
20/11/2006 36.6 36.126 1.01312 36.802 14 18/12/2006 35.6 35.126 1.01349 35.162 34
21/11/2006 37.1 36.626 1.01294 36.442 15 19/12/2006 34.7 34.226 1.01385 35.442 35
22/11/2006 37.1 36.626 1.01294 36.942 16 20/12/2006 34.78 34.306 1.01382 34.542 36
23/11/2006 37.1 36.626 1.01294 36.942 17 21/12/2006 34.6 34.126 1.01389 34.622 37
24/11/2006 36.7 36.226 1.01308 36.942 18 22/12/2006 34.68 34.206 1.01386 34.442 38
27/11/2006 36.44 35.966 1.01318 36.542 19 27/12/2006 34.9 34.426 1.01377 34.522 39
28/11/2006 35.2 34.726 1.01365 36.282 20 28/12/2006 35.08 34.606 1.01370 34.742 40
1. Source: www.enet.gr

TABLE 8
Seasonal and adjusted seasonal indicators
initial seasonal
indicators adjusted seasonal indicators.
1.013468 0.99993
1.013537 0.999998
1.013525 0.999986
1.013548 1.000009
1.013616 1.000076
Sum = 5,067694 Sum = 5
5/5,067694=0,986642

12
 TABLE 9
Actual and forecasting prices
Actual prices
Forecasting prices
29/1/2006 34,9 34,922
2/1/2007 35,92 34,742
3/1/2007 36,3 35,762
4/1/2007 36,72 36,142
5/1/2007 36,94 36,562

TABLE 10
(Results from the moving median method with trend and seasonality-2nd way for the “National
Bank of Greece”)
Date Actual S (3) F Period Date Actual S (3) F Period
price1 (2) (4) (5) price (2) (4) (5)
(1) (1)
1/11/2006 36 35.84 1.004464 1 29/11/2006 35.9 33.74 1.064019 35.09512 21
2/11/2006 35.66 35.735 0.997901 35.89531 2 30/11/2006 34.62 33.635 1.029285 35.79531 22
3/11/2006 36.26 35.63 1.017682 35.55489 3 1/12/2006 34.7 33.53 1.034894 34.51489 23
6/11/2006 35.92 35.525 1.011119 36.15475 4 4/12/2006 34.3 33.425 1.026178 34.59475 24
7/11/2006 36.2 35.42 1.022021 35.81493 5 5/12/2006 33.72 33.32 1.012005 34.19493 25
8/11/2006 36.2 35.315 1.02506 36.09512 6 6/12/2006 34.1 33.215 1.026645 33.61512 26
9/11/2006 36.04 35.21 1.023573 36.09531 7 7/12/2006 34.2 33.11 1.032921 33.99531 27
10/11/2006 36.2 35.105 1.031192 35.93489 8 8/12/2006 33.62 33.005 1.018634 34.09489 28
13/11/2006 36 35 1.028571 36.09475 9 11/12/2006 34.1 32.9 1.036474 33.51475 29
14/11/2006 36.4 34.895 1.043129 35.89493 10 12/12/2006 34.16 32.795 1.041622 33.99493 30
15/11/2006 36.9 34.79 1.06065 36.29512 11 13/12/2006 34.6 32.69 1.058428 34.05512 31
16/11/2006 36.98 34.685 1.066167 36.79531 12 14/12/2006 34.96 32.585 1.072886 34.49531 32
17/11/2006 36.96 34.58 1.068826 36.87489 13 15/12/2006 35.32 32.48 1.087438 34.85489 33
20/11/2006 36.6 34.475 1.061639 36.85475 14 18/12/2006 35.6 32.375 1.099614 35.21475 34
21/11/2006 37.1 34.37 1.07943 36.49493 15 19/12/2006 34.7 32.27 1.075302 35.49493 35
22/11/2006 37.1 34.265 1.082737 36.99512 16 20/12/2006 34.78 32.165 1.0813 34.59512 36
23/11/2006 37.1 34.16 1.086066 36.99531 17 21/12/2006 34.6 32.06 1.079226 34.67531 37
24/11/2006 36.7 34.055 1.077668 36.99489 18 22/12/2006 34.68 31.955 1.085276 34.49489 38
27/11/2006 36.44 33.95 1.073343 36.59475 19 27/12/2006 34.9 31.85 1.095761 34.57475 39
28/11/2006 35.2 33.845 1.040035 36.33493 20 28/12/2006 35.08 31.745 1.105056 34.79493 40
1. Source: www.enet.gr
TABLE 11
Seasonal and adjusted seasonal indicators
initial seasonal
indicators adjusted seasonal indicators.
1.050413 0.998865
1.048503 0.997049
1.052701 1.001042
1.054087 1.00236
1.052325 1.000684
Sum = 5,25803 Sum = 5
5/5,25803=0,950927

13
 TABLE 12
Actual and forecasting prices
Actual prices
Forecasting prices
29/1/2006 34.9 34.98
2/1/2007 35.92 34.80
3/1/2007 36.3 35.82
4/1/2007 36.72 36.20
5/1/2007 36.94 36.62

TABLE 13
(Results from the improved moving median method with trend and seasonality-1st way for
“National Bank of Greece”).
Date Actual S (3) F Period Date Actual S (3) F Period
price1 (2) (4) (5) price (2) (4) (5)
(1) (1)
1/11/2006 36 36.174 0.99519 1 29/11/2006 35.9 36.074 0.995177 35.258 21
2/11/2006 35.66 35.834 0.995144 36.058 2 30/11/2006 34.62 34.794 0.994999 35.958 22
3/11/2006 36.26 36.434 0.995224 35.718 3 1/12/2006 34.7 34.874 0.995011 34.678 23
6/11/2006 35.92 36.094 0.995179 36.318 4 4/12/2006 34.3 34.474 0.994953 34.758 24
7/11/2006 36.2 36.374 0.995216 35.978 5 5/12/2006 33.72 33.894 0.994866 34.358 25
8/11/2006 36.2 36.374 0.995216 36.258 6 6/12/2006 34.1 34.274 0.994923 33.778 26
9/11/2006 36.04 36.214 0.995195 36.258 7 7/12/2006 34.2 34.374 0.994938 34.158 27
10/11/2006 36.2 36.374 0.995216 36.098 8 8/12/2006 33.62 33.794 0.994851 34.258 28
13/11/2006 36 36.174 0.99519 36.258 9 11/12/2006 34.1 34.274 0.994923 33.678 29
14/11/2006 36.4 36.574 0.995243 36.058 10 12/12/2006 34.16 34.334 0.994932 34.158 30
15/11/2006 36.9 37.074 0.995307 36.458 11 13/12/2006 34.6 34.774 0.994996 34.218 31
16/11/2006 36.98 37.154 0.995317 36.958 12 14/12/2006 34.96 35.134 0.995048 34.658 32
17/11/2006 36.96 37.134 0.995314 37.038 13 15/12/2006 35.32 35.494 0.995098 35.018 33
20/11/2006 36.6 36.774 0.995268 37.018 14 18/12/2006 35.6 35.774 0.995136 35.378 34
21/11/2006 37.1 37.274 0.995332 36.658 15 19/12/2006 34.7 34.874 0.995011 35.658 35
22/11/2006 37.1 37.274 0.995332 37.158 16 20/12/2006 34.78 34.954 0.995022 34.758 36
23/11/2006 37.1 37.274 0.995332 37.158 17 21/12/2006 34.6 34.774 0.994996 34.838 37
24/11/2006 36.7 36.874 0.995281 37.158 18 22/12/2006 34.68 34.854 0.995008 34.658 38
27/11/2006 36.44 36.614 0.995248 36.758 19 27/12/2006 34.9 35.074 0.995039 34.738 39
28/11/2006 35.2 35.374 0.995081 36.498 20 28/12/2006 35.08 35.254 0.995064 34.958 40
1. Source: www.enet.gr
TABLE 14
Seasonal and adjusted seasonal indicators
initial seasonal
indicators adjusted seasonal indicators.
0.995145 1.000025
0.995121 1.000001
0.995125 1.000005
0.995117 0.999997
0.995093 0.999973
Sum = 4.975602 Sum = 5
5/4.975602=1.004903

14
 TABLE 15
Actual and forecasting prices
Actual prices
Forecasting prices
29/1/2006 34.9 35.138
2/1/2007 35.92 34.958
3/1/2007 36.3 35.978
4/1/2007 36.72 36.358
5/1/2007 36.94 36.778

TABLE 16
(Results from the improved moving median method with trend and seasonality-1st way for
“National Bank of Greece”).
Date Actual S (3) F Period Date Actual S (3) F Period
price (2) (4) (5) price (2) (4) (5)
(1)1 (1)
1/11/2006 36 36.144 0.996016 1 29/11/2006 35.9 37.304 0.962363 35.25848 21
2/11/2006 35.66 36.202 0.985028 36.0581 2 30/11/2006 34.62 37.362 0.92661 35.9581 22
3/11/2006 36.26 36.26 1 35.71807 3 1/12/2006 34.7 37.42 0.927312 34.67807 23
6/11/2006 35.92 36.318 0.989041 36.31785 4 4/12/2006 34.3 37.478 0.915204 34.75785 24
7/11/2006 36.2 36.376 0.995162 35.9775 5 5/12/2006 33.72 37.536 0.898338 34.3575 25
8/11/2006 36.2 36.434 0.993577 36.25848 6 6/12/2006 34.1 37.594 0.90706 33.77848 26
9/11/2006 36.04 36.492 0.987614 36.2581 7 7/12/2006 34.2 37.652 0.908318 34.1581 27
10/11/2006 36.2 36.55 0.990424 36.09807 8 8/12/2006 33.62 37.71 0.891541 34.25807 28
13/11/2006 36 36.608 0.983392 36.25785 9 11/12/2006 34.1 37.768 0.902881 33.67785 29
14/11/2006 36.4 36.666 0.992745 36.0575 10 12/12/2006 34.16 37.826 0.903083 34.1575 30
15/11/2006 36.9 36.724 1.004793 36.45848 11 13/12/2006 34.6 37.884 0.913314 34.21848 31
16/11/2006 36.98 36.782 1.005383 36.9581 12 14/12/2006 34.96 37.942 0.921406 34.6581 32
17/11/2006 36.96 36.84 1.003257 37.03807 13 15/12/2006 35.32 38 0.929474 35.01807 33
20/11/2006 36.6 36.898 0.991924 37.01785 14 18/12/2006 35.6 38.058 0.935414 35.37785 34
21/11/2006 37.1 36.956 1.003897 36.6575 15 19/12/2006 34.7 38.116 0.910379 35.6575 35
22/11/2006 37.1 37.014 1.002323 37.15848 16 20/12/2006 34.78 38.174 0.911091 34.75848 36
23/11/2006 37.1 37.072 1.000755 37.1581 17 21/12/2006 34.6 38.232 0.905001 34.8381 37
24/11/2006 36.7 37.13 0.988419 37.15807 18 22/12/2006 34.68 38.29 0.90572 34.65807 38
27/11/2006 36.44 37.188 0.979886 36.75785 19 27/12/2006 34.9 38.348 0.910087 34.73785 39
28/11/2006 35.2 37.246 0.945068 36.4975 20 28/12/2006 35.08 38.406 0.913399 34.9575 40
1. Source: www.enet.gr
TABLE 17
Seasonal and adjusted seasonal indicators
initial seasonal
indicators adjusted seasonal indicators.
0.961317 1.008286
0.955015 1.001675
0.954518 1.001155
0.950978 0.997442
0.945259 0.991443
Sum = 4,767087 Sum = 5
5/4,767087=1,048859

15
 TABLE 18
Actual and forecasting prices
Actual prices
Forecasting prices
29/1/2006 34.9 35.13848
2/1/2007 35.92 34.9581
3/1/2007 36.3 35.97807
4/1/2007 36.72 36.35785
5/1/2007 36.94 36.7775

TABLE 19
(Results from the improved moving median method with trend and seasonality-2st way of 12-
period for the inflation rate of Belgium).
Date Actual S (3) F Period Date Actual S (3) F Period
price (2) (4) (5) price (2) (4) (5)
(1)1 (1)
Jan 2004 1.4 2.01583 0.694503 1 Jan 2005 2 1.96579 1.017403 1.896952 13
Feb 2004 1.2 2.01166 0.596522 1.39685 2 Feb 2005 2.3 1.96162 1.1725 1.99685 14
March 2004 1 2.00749 0.498134 1.196566 3 March 2005 2.8 1.95745 1.430432 2.296566 15
April 2004 1.7 2.00332 0.848591 0.996301 4 April 2005 2.4 1.95328 1.228702 2.796301 16
May 2004 2.4 1.99915 1.20051 1.695761 5 May 2005 2.3 1.94911 1.180026 2.395761 17
June 2004 2 1.99498 1.002516 2.395743 6 June 2005 2.7 1.94494 1.388218 2.295743 18
July 2004 2.1 1.99081 1.054847 1.995645 7 July 2005 2.7 1.94077 1.3912 2.695645 19
Aug 2004 2 1.98664 1.006725 2.095541 8 Aug 2005 2.9 1.9366 1.49747 2.695541 20
Sep 2004 1.8 1.98247 0.907958 1.995619 9 Sep 2005 3 1.93243 1.55245 2.895619 21
Oct 2004 2.7 1.9783 1.364808 1.795538 10 Oct 2005 2.2 1.92826 1.140925 2.995538 22
Nov 2004 2.3 1.97413 1.16507 2.695797 11 Nov 2005 2.3 1.92409 1.19537 2.195797 23
Dec 2004 1.9 1.96996 0.964487 2.295686 12 Dec 2005 2.8 1.91992 1.458394 2.295686 24

TABLE 20

initial seasonal indicators adjusted seasonal indicators.

0.855953 0.762039
0.884511 0.787464
0.964283 0.858484
1.038647 0.924688
1.190268 1.059674
1.195367 1.064213
1.223024 1.088835
1.252097 1.114719
1.230204 1.095228
1.252867 1.115404
1.18022 1.050728
1.21144 1.078523
Sum = 13,47888 Sum = 12
12/13,47888=0,890282

16
 TABLE 21
Actual and forecasting prices
Actual prices
Forecasting prices
Jan 2004 2.8 2.797
Feb 2004 2.8 2.797
March 2004 2.2 2.797
April 2004 2.6 2.196
May 2004 2.8 2.596

TABLE 22
(Results from the improved moving median method with trend and seasonality-2st way of 5-
period for the inflation rate of Belgium).
Date Actual S (3) F Period Date Actual S (3) F Period
price (2) (4) (5) price (2) (4) (5)
(1)1 (1)
Jan 2004 1.4 0.84 1.666667 1 Jan 2005 2 0.36 5.555556 1.869505 13
Feb 2004 1.2 0.8 1.5 1.28874 2 Feb 2005 2.3 0.32 7.1875 2.027171 14
March 2004 1 0.76 1.315789 1.169505 3 March 2005 2.8 0.28 10 2.279765 15
April 2004 1.7 0.72 2.361111 1.027171 4 April 2005 2.4 0.24 10 2.73482 16
May 2004 2.4 0.68 3.529412 1.679765 5 May 2005 2.3 0.2 11.5 2.28874 17
June 2004 2 0.64 3.125 2.33482 6 June 2005 2.7 0.16 16.875 2.269505 18
July 2004 2.1 0.6 3.5 1.88874 7 July 2005 2.7 0.12 22.5 2.727171 19
Aug 2004 2 0.56 3.571429 2.069505 8 Aug 2005 2.9 0.08 36.25 2.679765 20
Sep 2004 1.8 0.52 3.461538 2.027171 9 Sep 2005 3 0.04 75 2.83482 21
Oct 2004 2.7 0.48 5.625 1.779765 10 Oct 2005 2.2 0 0 2.88874 22
Nov 2004 2.3 0.44 5.227273 2.63482 11 Nov 2005 2.3 -0.04 -57.5 2.169505 23
Dec 2004 1.9 0.4 4.75 2.18874 12 Dec 2005 2.8 -0.08 -35 2.327171 24

TABLE 23

initial seasonal indicators

adjusted seasonal indicators.
11.33333 1.629511
19.34545 2.781497
5.302444 0.762387
-4.72436 -0.67927
3.518382 0.505874
Sum = 34,77525 Sum = 5
5/34,77525=0,14378

17
 TABLE 24
Actual and forecasting prices

Actual prices
Forecasting prices
Jan 2004 2.8 2.780
Feb 2004 2.8 2.735
March 2004 2.2 2.689
April 2004 2.6 2.170
May 2004 2.8 2.627

GRAPH 1 .

SEASONALITY GRAPH FOR BELGIUM INFLATION RATES

3,0

2,5
C1

2,0

1,5

1,0

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33
Index

18