A TransmissionHub Webcast

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

2013 OUTLOOK FOR TRANSMISSION

The Panel
Randy Rischard
Vice President of Data and Analytics
Energy Central

Carl Dombek
Senior Editor
TransmissionHub.com

Sue Sheridan
President and Chief Counsel
Coalition for Fair Transmission Policy

Thank you to our sponsor.

Welcome & Introduction

Rosy Lum
Chief Analyst, TransmissionHub
Energy Central

TRANSMISSION OUTLOOK FOR

2013
Randy Rischard
TransmissionHub

Estimated Transmission Investment in

North America, in Billions $
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

>
2021

North American Transmission Mile

Additions
10,000

9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

>
2021

Estimated Transmission Investment by NERC Region - in Billions

$
35.0

WECC
TRE

30.0

SPP
SERC
RFC

25.0

NPCC
MRO

20.0

FRCC

15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020 > 2021

Transmission Investment in Billions of $ by

NERC Region - Eastern Interconnection
20.0
18.0

16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0

SPP
SERC
RFC
NPCC
MRO
FRCC

8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 >2021

Most
active
companies

Company
Project Miles
PacifiCorp
4,291
Xcel Energy
3,535
Clean Line Energy Partners, LLC
2,750
Duke-American Transmission Company
2,577
Western Area Power Administration
2,177
TransCanada Energy
1,970
Idaho Power
1,450
American Transmission Company
1,419
ITC Holdings Corp.
1,409
Manitoba Hydro
1,358
FirstEnergy's American Transmission System, Inc.
1,219
Oncor Electric Delivery Company
1,049
Southern California Edison
968
Oklahoma Gas & Electric
938
American Electric Power
914
Electric Transmission Texas, LLC
887
Southwestern Public Service
851
Ameren Transmission
666

ITC/Entergy
In 2013, ITC will
become one of the
largest electric
transmission
companies in the U.S.,
with more than 30,000
miles of transmission
lines spanning 11
states from the Great
Lakes to the Gulf
Coast.

AEP active via JVs and JVs of JVs

AEP

MidAmerican Electric
Transmission Texas

Sharyland
Cross Texas
Project

Duke - Pioneer Transmission

TVA - RockportParadise

Projects in partnerships:
27
Total Miles:
3,340
Total Partnership Est. Cost $9 Bn

Great Plains - Transource

Energy

MidAmerican -- Electric
Transmission America

OPPD- Nebraska
City to Maryville

OGE
Tallgrass

Exelon -RITELine

WestarPraire Wind

ITC/Sunflower/MidKansas
- Great Plains

Other productive partnerships

Company

Duke
OGE
Pacificorp
WAPA
Ameren
Northeast Utilities
ITC
ATC
APS
NV Energy

Partner (s)

ATC
SPS
Idaho Power
Tri-State
ITC/Duke/MidAmerican
National Grid
MidAmerican/Sunflower
Excel/ITC/FirstEnergy/We Energies
Salt River Project
LS Power's Great Basin

Key Drivers
Plant retirements/reliability
Aging grid
Connecting renewables with the power
markets
Policy

Order No. 1000

Key dates:
Oct. 11, 2012 - Local and regional compliance filings were due (most requested

and were granted late filings)

PJM, Midwest ISO, California ISO, SPP and ISO New England have submitted
compliance filings
Feb 8, 2013 Some entities, such as utilities in the Southeast, have been
granted extensions until this date to submit their regional compliance filing
April 11, 2013 - Interregional compliance filings are due
Key issues:
Right of first refusal: This issue may be the one that will take it to court
Public policy requirements
Cost allocations
Interregional issues

FERC rate incentives test changes

No longer
considers
whether a
project is
routine/non
-routine
Stricter
review of
need for
ROE adder

Coal capacity retirements

18000

16000

14000

12000

10000
Retired
Operating

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
<2001 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 >2017

Fossil-fueled capacity additions

25,000

20,000

15,000
Gas
Coal
10,000

5,000

0
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

7 projects stay on federal fast track

Renewables will continue to be driver

140
Renewable Energy Output (2010) vs.
Renewable Portfolio Standard Energy Requirements (2017 and 2025)
140
120

100

100

TWh

80
80

TWh

State renewable
portfolio standards will
continue to drive
renewables
development, which is
currently driving
transmission
development

120

60
60

40
40
20
0

Source: ScottMadden

20
0

CAISO
ERCOT
NE MISO
CAISO
ERCOT
ISO -ISO
NE - MISO
New New
PJM PJM
SERC SERC
SPP
York
York ISO ISO

SPP
WECC W

2010
Renewable
Supply
RPS Demand
2025 RPS
Demand
2010
Renewable
Supply 20172017
RPS Demand
2025
RPS Demand

What happens if the PTC expires

Big Transmission Projects

10 largest projects
Project Name

Sponsor

High Plains Express

Transmission Project

Xcel Energy

Energy Gateway Project PacifiCorp

Gateway West Project Ida Pwr, Rocky Mtn Pwr
Chinook
TransCanada

From
Miles Voltage State
2,500

500

2,000
1,150
1,000

To
State Status

In
Estimated cost
Service $/M

WY

AZ Planned

2017

$5,000

500
500
500

WY
MT

Building
ID Planned
NV Planned

2019
2018
2018

$6,000
$7,100
$3,000

Zephyr Power
Transmission Project

Duke-American
Transmission Company

950

500

WY

NV Planned

2018

$3,500

Centennial West Clean

Line
Bipole III Project

Clean Line Energy

Partners, LLC
Manitoba Hydro

900
858

600
500

NM
MB

CA Planned
MB Planned

2018
2017

$2,500
$1,260

Plains & Eastern Clean

Clean Line Energy

800

600

OK

TN Planned

2017

$3,500

Atlantic Wind Connection Trans-Elect

756

320

VA

NJ Planned

2021

$5,000

TransWest Express

725

600

WY

NV Planned

2017

$3,000

TransWest Express, LLC

Largest projects for 2013

Project Name

Spnosr

Miles

Voltage

O State

D State

ON Line Transmission Project

Great Plains (KETA Project)
West Shackelford to Navarro-Sam
Switch
Riley to West Krum Line
Hanna Region Transmission
Development

NV Energy
ITC Holdings Corp.

235
225

500
345

NV
KS

NV
NE

Lone Star Transmission

Oncor Electric Delivery Company

192
163

345
345

TX
TX

TX
TX

ATCO Electric
New England Independent
Transmission Company, LLC
Lower Colorado River Authority
Oklahoma Gas & Electric

149

240

AB

AB

140
139
125

500
345
345

MA
TX
OK

ME
TX
OK

Desert Southwest Power, LLC

Southern California Edison
South Texas Electric Cooperative

118
115
112

500
500
345

CA
CA
TX

CA
CA
TX

Oncor Electric Delivery Company

Cross Texas Transmission

110
109

345
345

TX
TX

TX
TX

Lone Star Transmission

103

345

TX

TX

PacifiCorp

100

500

UT

UT

Green Line Project (NEITC)

Big Hill to Kendall
Seminole to Muskogee
Desert Southwest Power
Transmission Project
Devers to Colorado River
Bakersfield to Big Hill Line
Clear Crossing to Willow Creek Line
Gray to Tesla
Scurry County South to West
Shackelford Line
Gateway Central Project - Mona to
Oquirrh (Segment C)

Bipole III
Project Sponsor Manitoba Hydro
Line Miles
858
Voltage (kV)
500 kV
From State
MB
To State
MB
Year In Service 2017
Costs ($M)
$3,300
Project Status Planned
Description:
HVDC

Project Sponsor Nalcor Energy

Line Miles
684
Voltage (kV)
450

Labrador
Island
Link

From NL
To
NL
Year In Service 2016
Costs ($M)
$2,100

Renewables transmission will

advance

Texas CREZ Program

$8.7 Billion in transmission

projects in ERCOT by 2016, $7
Billion of which are to connect
renewables
5,047 miles will be added and
1,653 miles improved in that
time.

2013 Texas projects

Project Name
West Shackelford to Navarro-Sam Switch
Riley to West Krum Line
Big Hill to Kendall
Bakersfield to Big Hill Line
Clear Crossing to Willow Creek Line
Gray to Tesla
Scurry County South to West Shackelford Line
Hereford to White Deer Line
Clear Crossing to Dermott
Edith Clarke to Cottonwood
Silverton to Tesla
Edith Clarke to Clear Crossing
Long Draw to Sand Bluff
Odessa to Bakersfield
Cottonwood to Dermott
West Krum to Anna
White Deer to Silverton Line
Tesla to Riley
Silverton to Cottonwood Line
Kendall to Miller Creek to Paleface Rebuild
Long Draw to Grelton
Tesla to Edith Clarke
Scurry County South to Long Draw Line
Grelton to Odessa

Spnosr
Lone Star Transmission
Oncor Electric Delivery Company
Lower Colorado River Authority
South Texas Electric Cooperative
Oncor Electric Delivery Company
Cross Texas Transmission
Lone Star Transmission
Sharyland Utilities
Electric Transmission Texas, LLC
Electric Transmission Texas, LLC
Cross Texas Transmission
Electric Transmission Texas, LLC
Wind Energy Transmission Texas, LLC
South Texas Electric Cooperative
Wind Energy Transmission Texas, LLC
Oncor Electric Delivery Company
Sharyland Utilities
Electric Transmission Texas, LLC
Sharyland Utilities
Lower Colorado River Authority
Wind Energy Transmission Texas, LLC
Electric Transmission Texas, LLC
Wind Energy Transmission Texas, LLC
Wind Energy Transmission Texas, LLC

Miles
192
163
139
112
110
109
103
91
90
89
85
84
77
76
74
70
68
66
65
57
55
55
51
50

Voltage
345
345
345
345
345
345
345
345
345
345
345
345
345
345
345
345
345
345
345
138
345
345
345
345

Project Sponsor Pattern Energy

Line Miles
400
Voltage (kV)
345/500

SouthernCross

From State
TX
To State
MS/AL
Year In Service 2016
Costs ($M)
$1,000
Project Status Proposed

Atlantic Wind Connection

Project SponsorTrans-Elect
Line Miles
756
Voltage (kV)
320
From State
VA
To State
NJ
Year In Service 2021
Costs ($M)
$5,000
Project Status Planned
Description:
Underwater and
underground HVDC

Tehachapi Renewable
Transmission
Project SponsorSouthern California
Edison
Line Miles
333
Voltage (kV)
500
From State
CA
To State
CA
Year In Service 2015
Costs ($M)
$2,200
Project Status Under construction
Description:
Some segments are
delayed.

Tehachapi Renewable
Transmission

Tehachapi Renewable
Transmission

20 largest HVDC projects

Project Name
Chinook

Sponsor
TransCanada Energy
Duke-American Transmission
Zephyr Power Transmission Project
Company
Clean Line Energy Partners,
Centennial West Clean Line
LLC
Plains and Eastern Clean Line Project
Clean Line Energy Partners
Trans-Elect Development
Atlantic Wind Connection
Company
TransWest Express Project
TransWest Express, LLC
Labrador Island Link
Nalcor Energy
Sea Breeze Pacific Regional
West Coast Cable Project
Transmission System, Inc.
Grain Belt Express Clean Line
Clean Line Energy Partners
Overland Transmission Project
Jade Energy Associates, LLC
Rock Island Clean Line
Clean Line Energy Partners
Southern Cross Transmission Project
Pattern Energy Group, LP
Champlain to Hudson Power Express Project Transmission Developers, Inc.
Maritime Transmission Link
ENL Maritime Link Inc.
Eastern Alberta Transmission Line
ATCO Electric
Northeast Energy Link
National Grid USA
Western Alberta Transmission Line
AltaLink
Central California Clean Energy Project
Pacific Gas & Electric
New England Independent
Green Line Project
Transmission Company
Northern Pass Transmission Project
Northern Pass Transmission,

Miles
1000

Voltage
500

O State
MT

D State
NV

Completion Cost ($M)

2018

3000

975

500

WY

NV

2020

3500

900
800

600
600

NM
OK

CA
TN

2019
2018

2500
3500

756
725
684

320
600
450

VA
WY
NL

NJ
NV
NL

2021
2017
2016

5000
3000
2100

650
550
550
500
400
333
321
302
240
215
170

500
600
500
600
500
320
200
500
320
500
500

OR
KS
WY
IL
TX
QC
NL
AB
ME
AB
CA

CA
MO
ID
IA
MS
NY
NS
AB
MA
AB
CA

2016
2017
2017
2016
2016
2016
2017
2014
2018
2015
2019

2000
1700
1700
1700
1000
1900
1200
1622
2000
1329
1000

140
140

500
300

MA
QC

ME
NH

2014
2016

1000
1100

Anbaric
Transmission
Hudson Transmission is
on scheduled and under
budget

Green Line is expected to

start construction in 2013

Plains and Eastern:

Grain Belt:
Rock Island:
Centennial West:

750 miles
550 miles
500 miles
900 miles

$3.5 Bn
$1.7 Bn
$1.7 Bn
$2.5 Bn

Clean Line
Energy

Suspended projects
Country Project Name
USA
Canada Pacific Northwest to Northern Calif.
Canada NorthernLights

Sponsor
Pacific Gas & Electric
TransCanada Energy

Miles Voltage O State D State Completion Cost ($M)

1000 500
BC
CA
2021
7000
970 500
AB
OR
2015
1700

USA

West Side Tie

NV Energy

476

500

NV

NV

2018

798

USA

PacifiCorp

330

500

UT

NV

2018

990

USA

Gateway South Project - Mona to Crystal

Potomac Appalachian Transmission Highline
Project (PATH)

FirstEnergy

275

765

WV

MD

2012

2100

USA
USA
USA

Navajo Transmission Project Segment 1

Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway (MAPP)
RTI Westside Tie 345 kV

Dine Power Authority

Pepco Holdings, Inc.
NV Energy

198
152
141

500
500
345

NM
MD
NV

NV
DE
NV

2013
2019
2015

350
1005
380

USA

RTI Tracy-Viewland 345 kV

NV Energy

79

345

NV

NV

2015

138

USA

Keystone XL Pipeline 115 kV Project

NPPD

74

115

NE

NE

USA

Boswell to Riverton

Minnesota Power

68

230

MN

MN

2012

76

USA
USA

Barnhart to Branch River Project

Zenith to Fayetteville

ATC
CenterPoint Energy

65
60

345
345

WI
TX

WI
TX

2018
2014

262
175

USA

RTI Dixie-Oreana

NV Energy

41

345

NV

NV

2015

72

NV Energy
Hydro One
AltaLink

40
18
15

500
230
138

NV
ON
AB

NV
ON
AB

2015
2013
2015

183
100
28

USA
RTI Zone 4 to Harry Allen
Canada Essex County Transmission Reinforcement
Canada Airdrie Area

49

Greater Sage Grouse

In conclusion
In 2013, well continue to see four
categories of trends, drivers, and
inhibitors, along with some subsets:

Aging infrastructure
Plant retirements
Interconnecting renewables
Regulatory changes

Welcome & Introduction

Sue Sheridan
President and Chief Counsel
Coalition for Fair Transmission Policy

Questions & Answers

Additional questions can be sent to:

webcastquestions@energycentral.com
303.782.5510

Thank you to our sponsor.

Interactive intelligence for transmission grid and power generation professionals.

Start your free trials:

http://transmissionhub.com/register.php
http://generationhub.com/register.php