Venezuela: once again, in turmoil.

I
I have lost count of the number of times I have written about Venezuela being in turmoil.
As for now, it is something that we have learned to live with, and when violence gets out of
control, you just try to find ways to evade the effects. Only, this time it seems its
completely out of control for both parties: Government and Opposition.
To look at this situation is necessary to take it from the moment Mr. Maduro replaced,
[although not formally], President Chavez once he left for treatment again to Cuba in
December the 8th of 2012. It was a very difficult situation in which the main argument for
the Opposition was the Constitution and the Government handling of the responsibility to
run office, which was not very clear given that the prognosis of the Presidents health
condition remained unknown. That of course led to an additional confrontation between
Government and Opposition, which gained momentum once the time for President Chavez
to take the Oath for Office, January the 10th of 2013, came and according to the
Constitution, it had to be decided if his absence was a short or long-term one, that in the
latter would require the President of the National Assembly to assume and call for a new
presidential election within 30 days. Nevertheless, the case was that thanks to a Supreme
Tribunal1 decision, Mr Maduro not only was sworn but also was chosen Candidate, [as
Presidents Chavez televised will stated], for the upcoming April 14th election.
If there has been a critical episode in these 15 years of chavismo, the presidential elections
of 2013 were a highlight. There was very little hope for a positive outcome, the Opposition
failed in the October 7th of 2012 elections and optimism was not the case in the unexpected
presidential bid. It would be a very short campaign and the recent decease of a strong figure
as Hugo Chavez, left no doubt it was going to be a lost effort to think of getting close to
victory, even with a candidate as Nicolas Maduro, who had been Foreign Minister for the
past six years. That was quite enough to make anyone desist to take the challenge, there
were voices that clearly recommended Henrique Capriles, the Oppositions contender to
President Chavez, not to take a risk that would kill his political career. There was not much
time to think about, and as expected, Capriles decided to challenge the chosen heir of
President Chavez.
The turnout was significant (around 80%), but Maduro won with less than 2% of difference
and against all odds, Capriles ended up with a better performance than the one expected,
even after loosing. There were some claims of fraud at the polling centers and the candidate
exercised his right to dispute the results given the collected amount of evidence. The
decision from the Supreme Tribunal was not favorable, and it carried a fine for the
candidate, on the charge he disgraced the honor of the tribunal by introducing his petition.

1 http://www.tsj.gov.ve/decisiones/scon/marzo/141-8313-2013-13-0196.html

Those were not the only setbacks for Capriles, the most serious was from his own coalition,
that on the one side was demanding a tougher stand before the higher court and the
government, and on the other, his conviction that a bloodshed was not a price to pay, that
he was sure he won the election but government exercised all its power to break the will of
the people, and with that thought on mind, the way was to grow a bigger and more stronger
majority, one that would not allow a doubt about its strength.
Of course, that led to some frustration, not only in the Opposition electorate, but also within
the coalition known as the MUD (Table of Unity), that has its own differences and
antagonisms to deal with and were put aside because of the unexpected April 14th election
and several months later the Mayoral Elections on December 8th of 2013. The different
agendas were left to rest until the polls took place, but as soon as the results were known
[considerably favorable to de Government], the feuds were let loose and without a single
election in the coming year, the different sides of the MUD started to play their game to
take control of the Opposition, with harsh criticism towards the performance of the
coalition and the leadership of Capriles. Although there are several sides, the two most
prominent are: one that favors a more defiant attitude towards the Government and the
other that privileges an expansion of the Opposition as an alternative, persuading those that
are frustrated with Maduros management of the legacy inherited.
Before April 14th it was clear that Maduro was not Chavez, but they had to carry out his
political will. Their major concern was, undoubtedly, if Maduro had the ability to do
whatever it was necessary to preserve that legacy. The problem was that during the
interregnum, Maduro showed himself, perhaps for the first time, considering he had been
serving for a long period as a Foreign Minister, during which he had little chance to get
exposed. The perspective was a very bothering one; he was definitively not Chavez, not
even close. The narrow and contested victory was a preview of what the ride was promising
to be.