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A study of the quantitative methods that support


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Conference Paper May 2015
DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2015.7105162

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Anglica Alebrant Mendes

Jose Luis Duarte Ribeiro

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul

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A Study of the Quantitative Methods that Support RCM Operation


Anglica Alebrant Mendes, PhD, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Jos Luis Duarte Ribeiro, PhD, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Key-Words: electronics industry, metallurgical industry, quantitative methods, reliability centered maintenance
SUMMARY & CO1CLUSIO1S
This paper investigates each of the quantitative methods
that support Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
operation. The integration of quantitative methods with RCM
activities is an innovative approach since previous RCM
methodologies only utilized qualitative methods. A thorough
literature review identified ten essential activities that are
necessary for the application of RCM along with the
respective quantitative methods that support these activities.
Furthermore, in-person interviews were conducted at Brazilian
manufacturing firms to confirm the actual application of the
methods from the literature. These interviews also helped us
identify additional methods that these companies use in their
manufacturing practices. As a result, a table associating
essential RCM activities with their quantitative method
counterpart was created, along with a brief description of what
each respective quantitative method contributes specifically.
Among the quantitative methods evaluated, probability theory
was identified as the one that was most commonly associated
with RCM activities. The methods of Economic engineering
and Monte Carlo simulation were also identified as key
contributors since they allowed for more sophisticated analysis
related to the cost and performance of production systems
subject to maintenance.
The use of probability distributions in modeling is
important in many RCM activities. Not only should the
average values be used, but it is necessary to understand the
effects of times to failure and times to repair on time. The
Economic engineering methods allowed the analysis of the life
cycle costs of machines and equipment. Monte Carlo
simulation is capable of analyzing real systems which are
essentially stochastic. A more complete view of the equipment
and their critical components is provided through the use of
blocks diagram and system reliability analysis techniques. The
methods of production planning and controlling, such as
Manufacturing Resource Planning II (MRPII), support the
optimal planning of maintenance activities. The stochastic and
deterministic models of stocks management optimize storage
costs in relation to the cost of lacking spare parts. Indicators
specific to maintenance, such as Overall Equipment
Effectiveness (OEE) and Total Effective Equipment
Performance (TEEP), allow the monitoring of essential
variables in the production lines and the calculation of global
efficiency. Costing systems such as ABC quantify the

978-1-4799-6703-2/15/$31.002015 IEEE

productive system costs, which include the maintenance


activities.
These methods can have an expressive contribution to the
RCM operation. The quantitative methods listed improve both
the planning and activities control while also reducing costs.
1.

I1TRODUCTIO1

The competition between the firms has forced the


companies to look for new market strategies and reduce
operational costs. The improvement of maintenance activities
can reduce costs while also improving safety, protecting the
environment, and helping the company comply with
regulatory requirements [1,2].
Historically, maintenance is determined by employee
input and the instructions provided by the manufacturer [3,2].
Most employees believe that failures occur due to wear
stemming from operation time and that repairs restore the
condition of the component to as good as new [4]. However,
studies in the aviation industry determined that only 11% of
the components fail due to fatigue [4]. Similarly, the
recommendation found in the manufacturers manual might
not be based on real data. Manufacturers might want to
maximize components sales and minimize their
responsibilities by recommending short time intervals between
inspections or replacement [2].
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) is a program
that combines engineering techniques in a systematic approach
to ensure that the equipment will maintain their original level
of functionality [5]. For [6], RCM develops maintenance
strategies that combine availability, reliability, quality, and
safety principles by looking for an optimal maintenance
program [1].
Many books and papers about RCM are found in the
literature, but most of them address only qualitative aspects
which leaves a gap in the quantitative aspects. By emphasizing
the quantitative aspects of RCM in the literature, not only
would this gap be addressed but system reliability would also
be improved [7]. The author adds that qualitative approaches
have been preferred to quantitative approaches due to a lack of
data and the appropriate statistical methods to interpret this
data.
The main objective of this paper is to analyze the
quantitative support needed by the companies to operate the
RCM. Given that both earlier literature and practice focused
on qualitative approaches, this paper aims to identify the

quantitative support for RCM operation. A literature review is


performed, followed by interviews in some companies that
carry out maintenance. As a result, a table associating essential
RCM activities with their quantitative method counterpart was
created, along with a brief description of what each respective
quantitative method specifically contributes.
This study could prove to be instrumental in the
development of these quantitative approaches in maintenance
planning. These developments could help the organizations
reduce their maintenance costs while improving both the
availability and reliability of their systems.
2.

RESEARCH APPROACH

The main objective of RCM is to identify a maintenance


routine that preserves the systems in an effective way and with
acceptable costs [4]. If the costs of preventive maintenance
are higher than the costs of operational losses and repair, the
maintenance will not be beneficial [7], unless it is a regulatory
requirement or it is related to safety and/or environment [1].
The base of an RCM program is the definition of
functions and standard performance of equipment. That is
followed by the description of their possible failures, the
causes/effects of failures, and the definition of action to
prevent or mitigate their occurrence [5]. In this context,
FMEA adaptations are widely applied in RCM. The author in
[2] suggests the utilization of the FMECA (failure modes,
effects and criticality analysis) to identify failure modes and
determine their criticality. The reference [1] presents COFA
(consequence of failure analysis) as a more accurate and
simplistic way to define failure effects. The authors in [8]
suggest the use of an extended FMEA that includes
information about maintenance activities.
Maintenance optimization requires a balanced
combination of three strategies: (i) preventive - related to
component age or looking for hidden failures; (ii) predictive or
condition based maintenance; (iii) corrective - applied in
random failures and components that run until failure [9,10].
Some authors recommend qualitative methods to define
the maintenance strategy and the time interval between
maintenance. The authors in [10], [2], [1], [5], and [7] present
a similar decision diagram to identify the recommended
maintenance strategy. The reference [1] suggests considering
the maintenance teams experience, but also emphasizes the
necessity of constant reviews in the maintenance plan based
on feedback related to the activity.
With a quantitative approach, the maintenance strategy
chosen for each component depends on its failure probability
density function. The failure behavior can be predicted by data
analysis and the best maintenance strategy can be determined
with more accuracy [11].
The authors in [9] suggest a quantitative method to define
the best maintenance strategy and time interval between
maintenance using paper probability and maximum-likelihood
estimation (MLE). Reference [12] proposes a complex
numerical and statistical method to determine the amount
maintenance necessary for a specific number of units
operating during the time.

A quantitative method based on the lower annual cost of


maintenance is proposed by [13]. Different equations for each
maintenance strategy are proposed in calculating the annual
maintenance cost. The authors in [7] present a method to
define the maintenance frequency based on the maximum
availability and the optimal maintenance cost. Reference [14]
proposes a method to optimize the maintenance planning
based on a decreasing list of maintenance effects. The purpose
of this method is to increase the maintenance activities in
those elements that have a bigger effect in the production
while also decreasing the maintenance activity in those
elements that have a smaller effect. The authors in [15] present
a quantitative method for supporting the preparation and
review of an equipment maintenance plan in a Just-In-Time
production scenario using Monte Carlo simulation. Reference
[9] developed a quantitative method that optimizes the stock
levels of consumable items derived from an RCM program.
3.

METHODOLOGY

This study was conducted in the following steps: (i)


Identifying the essential activities of the Reliability Centered
Maintenance (RCM); (ii) Identifying the quantitative support
needed by RCM; (iii) Conducting interviews in companies
that perform maintenance in order to verify if they apply the
quantitative methods described in the literature while also
identifying other methods that are applied but were not
described in the literature; (iv) Developing a table linking the
quantitative methods and the RCM activities.
In order to identify the essential RCM activities, a
literature review was performed and a table was created. The
identification of the quantitative support for RCM was
obtained through the literature review and featured
unstructured interviews with maintenance professionals.
The table linking the quantitative methods and RCM
activities was elaborated upon through the combination of the
results of activities and methods obtained in steps i and ii.
4.

RESULTS A1D DISCUSSIO1

Initially, it is necessary to determine the essential


activities for RCM operation. Reference [1] says that these
activities are: the training of maintenance employees, listing
and classifying critical components based on function,
classification and functional failure analysis, and classifying
maintenance strategy (preventive, predictive, and corrective).
Reference [2] and [7] identify the following RCM
activities as essential: components classification based on their
function, determination of their standard performance levels,
classification and analysis of their functional failures,
classification of the maintenance strategy to be performed, and
the monitoring of indicators (failure rate, mean time to failure,
mean time to repair).
The authors in [13] present some more quantitative
activities related to RCM: the definition and monitoring of
indicators (availability, reliability, maintenance cost),
quantitative failure analysis (risk or failure rate, failure
probability distributions), maintenance planning (activities and
time intervals definition), and the stock planning of

maintenance parts. Table 1 summarizes essential activities for


RCM operation.
Next, it is necessary to establish the quantitative methods
that facilitate and qualify the essential RCM activities. For the
failure analysis, it is recommended that conditional probability
models be applied to understand the failure behavior during
that period. Then, reliability analysis needs to be utilized to
identify the times to failure behavior of each component
[15,9].
Activity

Scope

1. Maintenance team
training / role definition

Choosing the maintenance team,


assigning them to functions, and training
them to perform their functions

2. Component
identification

Identifying all the equipment for a


sector, as well as their sets, subsets and
components

3. Function
classification

Classifying the function of each


component as essential or auxiliary with
essential functions being the main
objective of the component installation
and auxiliary functions being required to
support those essential functions

4. Failure classification

Classifying the failures as hidden or


apparent

5. Failure analysis

Analyzing the times to failure behavior


during the life of a component

6. Component
classification

Classifying the components to their


functional failures: critical component,
potentially
critical
component,
economically important, and non-critical

7. Maintenance strategy
classification

Choosing the appropriate maintenance


strategy
(corrective,
preventive,
predictive)

8. Maintenance
planning

Grouping the activities in smaller


maintenance packages and scheduling
their performance

9. Stock planning

Determining the size of the stock that is


needed to meet determined service level

10. Indicators
monitoring

Defining
and
monitoring
maintenance process indicators

the

Table 1 Essential RCM activities


The component classification depends on the
classification of functions, failure classification, and failure
analysis results. Usually, this step can be done qualitatively
using an FMEA. However, for more complex systems which
have many levels of redundancy, blocks diagram or Monte
Carlo simulation may be required [2].
The classification of the maintenance strategy requires the
utilization of probability distributions applied to reliability
[15,9]. This is necessary to analyze the previous failures and
identify the probability distribution that is the best fit for the
times to failure data. It is possible to identify if the component
is in the infant mortality, useful life, or wear-out phase by the

probabilities distribution parameters.


The maintenance planning activity can be divided in two
other activities: determining the time interval between
preventive maintenance and scheduling the maintenance
activities. Determining the optimal time interval between
preventive maintenance requires the use of a probability
distribution to analyze the times that the component is
working correctly [15]. Most of the methods used to calculate
the optimal interval between inspection focus on the
maximum availability and the optimal cost [7,14].
The scheduling of maintenance activities requires the
grouping of smaller activities in to maintenance packages that
should be performed concurrently or in a specific sequence
[2]. MRPII systems can be used to schedule activities
packages. In order to determine the sequence of activities in
the same maintenance package for equipment, it is possible to
utilize the mean flow time (MFT) method, as described for
reference [16].
The stock planning of maintenance components can be
performed utilizing probability distributions associated with
stochastic or deterministic stock management models. The
probability distributions are used to analyze the component
times to failure behavior and determine the demand for spare
parts and consumables. The stock management models are
utilized to determine the reposition point or time interval for
stock review. Stochastic models that have demand and lead
time as random independent variables are more efficient than
the deterministic models, but the model choice depends on the
characteristics of the organization and their available data.
Monitoring indicators is essential to measuring and
verifying the actual performance of the maintenance system.
The indicators of reliability are usually presented in the
literature: mean time to failure (MTTF) or mean time between
failures (MTBF), mean time to repair (MTTR), and
availability (A). An alternative to measuring the entire system
is calculating the indicator of mean time between interruptions
(MTBI) that consider all of the time of interruptions and not
just the time of failure of the equipment [6]. Also, it is
possible to utilize the indicator of Overall Equipment
Effectiveness (OEE) and the Total Effective Equipment
Performance (TEEP). OEE measures the process efficiency of
making good products at the correct speed and in the time that
the equipment is supposed to operate. TEEP measures the
percentage of the total calendar time that the equipment
operates at an ideal speed while making good quality products.
Most of the authors that talk about RCM highlight the
importance of costs control [13,17,7,18,4,16]. Therefore, it is
evident that costing systems such as Activity Based Costing
(ABC) or others must be included in the quantitative
techniques that support RCM operation.
Additionally, in order to verify whether the quantitative
methods described in the literature were used in practice by
the companys maintenance teams, unstructured interviews
were conducted with the companys maintenance managers
that oversaw the metallurgical and electronic sectors. These
interviews also identified any other potential quantitative
methods that could be necessary. All these companies are

large organizations that stand out in their specific markets.


Their main products are: Company 1- air conditioning,
Company 2- driven axles and driveshaft, Company 3- metallic
structures, Company 4- road and off road vehicle equipment,
Company 5- truck equipment, Company 6- electric
components, and Company 7- special steels.
Two of the seven companies interviewed ignore RCM
concepts. Despite other companies understanding RCM, they
said that they dont apply the RCM concepts due to the high
amount of time, complexity, and workforce required. Usually,
these companies utilize FMEA and reliability analysis in the
P&D department, but these concepts are not shared with the
Maintenance department. Conversely, concepts related to
Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) are widespread in the
companies, but they only apply some of these concepts
especially the autonomous maintenance.
The interviews revealed that six of the seven companies
do not utilize quantitative methods supporting the RCM. In
general, the motivation for not using these methods is the
perception that they would be too demanding in terms of time
and cost. Even though the companies have historic data about
equipment failures, they are limited to the use of qualitative
methods as it relates to TPM. The maintenance plans are
usually derived from the equipment manuals along with the
maintenance professionals experience.
Quantitative methods are applied only for monitoring
indicators such as: maintenance costs, availability, MTBF, and
MTTR. It is worth noting that three of the seven companies
did not have an indicator in the maintenance process. Table 2
shows the indicators utilized for each company.
Indicators utilized

Studied company
1

Maintenance costs

Availability (A)

MTBF

MTTR

Reliability (R(t))

Table 2 Indicators utilized by the studied companies


We observed that the companies can be divided in two
groups regarding their routine: those that do and those that do
not utilize indicators in their maintenance process.
In general, those companies that utilize indicators have a
well-defined preventive maintenance plan. This plan is
contingent upon having the production availability to stop the
equipment and the availability of the maintenance team to
perform the activity. Thus, in the companies that do not have
the availability to stop equipment, the activities planned in the
preventive maintenance plan are postponed and accumulated
resulting in backorders. In these companies, the workforce can
solicit corrective maintenance and the activity priority depends
on the failure criticality in terms of safety and production
losses. For critical equipment (bottlenecks, with high MTTR

or low MTBF, critical for operational safety), the failures are


analyzed in order to identify and block their root causes.
The companies that do not utilize indicators have a
development level in the maintenance management process
inferior to those that use indicators. They only establish
preventive maintenance plans that are rarely fulfilled and only
perform corrective maintenance.
In those companies that have formal control of their spare
parts, the minimum stock level or reposition point is defined
based on failure data and experience. The companies do not
utilize any specific method to manage stock.
One of the companies interviewed stands out from the
others, since it employs quantitative methods in maintenance
management. Besides the methods used to monitor indicators,
the company applies probability distribution to understand the
equipment failure behavior and identify the need for corrective
actions in the components that are less reliable. Also, Monte
Carlo simulation is used to estimate the capacity of the
production line subject to corrective and preventive
maintenance while predicting the amount of maintenance
needed in the next period. The maintenance manager also
highlighted life cycle cost as an important technique of
economic engineering since it determines and analyzes the
total cost of equipment operation.
In summary, of the seven companies interviewed, two
ignore RCM concepts while the five others dont apply them
due to high degrees of complexity, human capital demand, and
time commitment. While six of the companies do not utilize
quantitative methods for RCM, three of them only utilize
quantitative methods as monitoring indicators as the other
three do not use quantitative methods at all since they dont
have any maintenance process indicators. In terms of Total
Productive Maintenance (TPM), all seven companies apply it
for autonomous maintenance.
Table 3 presents the relationship between the main RCM
activities and the quantitative methods described in the
literature and those mentioned by professionals. Also, it
presents a brief description of the contributions of each
method. We can see that the probability distributions have a
key role in RCM since they are used to support many of its
essential activities. The other methods are used in a more
specific way, supporting one or two activities.
Economic engineering and Monte Carlo simulation are
important since each support two essential RCM activities.
These methods allow more sophisticated cost and performance
analysis of productive systems subject to maintenance.
Although the other quantitative methods directly support
only one essential activity, they also make important
contributions. Block diagrams and systems reliability analyses
provide a more complete view of equipment and critical
components. MRPII/MFT and other methods of activity
planning improve the resource allocation of the maintenance
activities, reducing costs and increasing the productivity. The
stochastic and deterministic methods of stock management
ensure the correct stock sizing of spare parts and consumables,
minimizing the chance of shortage. Specific indicators for
maintenance, such as OEE and TEEP, allow the monitoring of

production essential variables such as availability, speed, and


quality. Costing systems such as ABC precisely quantify the
maintenance costs and its effect on the global costs, revealing
that well planned and sized maintenance reduces global costs
and increases a companys competitiveness.
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BIOGRAPHIES
Anglica Alebrant Mendes, PhD
Departamento de Engenharia de Produo e Transportes
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Av. Osvaldo Aranha, 99 5andar CEP 90035-190
Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
e-mail: angel.alebrant@gmail.com
Anglica Alebrant Mendes is a PhD in Industrial
Engineering and is currently a postdoctoral researcher in
reliability engineering and maintenance management at
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) in
Brazil. As a professor, she worked at both the Universidade de
Passo Fundo and UFRGS, teaching engineering courses in
Quality Management/Control, Production Systems, Logistics,
and Industrial Costs. She also has hands-on experience
working with Quality Management and Production
Planning/Control. In 2013, the Brazilian government
sponsored Anglica as a visiting scholar at Rutgers University
where she supported their Industrial and Systems Engineering
Department. Prior to becoming a PhD, Anglica also obtained
both a Bachelor of Science and Master of Science in Industrial
Engineering.
Jos Luis Duarte Ribeiro, PhD
Departamento de Engenharia de Produo e Transportes
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Av. Osvaldo Aranha, 99 5andar CEP 90035-190
Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
e-mail: ribeiro@producao.ufrgs.br
Professor Jos Luis Duarte Ribeiro is an associate
professor at Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
(UFRGS), Coordinator of the Industrial Engineering Graduate
Program, and Chairman of the Graduate UFRGS School of
Engineering. He also serves as an ad hoc advisor to CNPq,
CAPES, and MEC. In the past, he was President of the
Brazilian Association of Industrial Engineering for two
consecutive terms (1998-2001), Member of Advisory
Committee of CAPES (2002-2005) and CNPq (2010-2012). In
1989, he obtained his PhD in Engineering from UFRGS after
having already completed his Master of Science in
Engineering. In 1993, he worked as a postdoctoral researcher
at Rutgers University. His areas of expertise include: Quality
Engineering, Product Development, Reliability, and service
management.

RCM activities

Quantitative methods
mentioned in literature

Quantitative methods
mentioned by professionals

Probability distributions

Probability distributions

Contributions of specific method

Maintenance team
training / role
definition
Component
identification
Function
classification
Failure classification
Failure analysis

Component
classification

Maintenance strategy
classification

Blocks Diagram and


systems reliability analysis

Identify critical components


Identify redundancies

Monte Carlo simulation

Identify critical components

Probability distributions

Maintenance
planning

Indicators monitoring

Probability distributions
Economic engineering
methods

Probability distributions

Stock Planning

Analyze the component failure times distribution

Determine the components life phase (infant


mortality, maturity, wear out) to define the most
appropriated maintenance strategy
Determine the life cycle cost based on the
maintenance strategy chosen

Probability distributions

Estimate the time to failure, time to repair, and


availability to define the optimal time interval
between maintenances

Monte Carlo simulation

Estimate the capacity of the production line


subject to corrective and preventive maintenance

Economic engineering
methods

Identify the effect of the maintenance time


interval on the life cycle cost of equipment
Identify the optimal time until replacement

MRPII
MFT (mean flow time)

Scheduling the performance packages of


maintenance activities and the scheduling of
activities inside each package

Probability distributions

Analyze the distribution of times to failure of the


components to determine the demand for spare
parts and consumables

Stochastic and deterministic


models of stock
management

Stochastic and deterministic


models of stock management

Determine the reposition point or the optimal time


interval for stock review

Probability distributions

Probability distributions

Monitoring the distribution of the failure time, the


time to repair, and availability of the equipment to
make decisions
Measuring the effectiveness of the productive
process

OEE, TEEP
Costing systems

Costing systems

Monitoring the costs of the maintenance strategy

Table 3 Table linking the main RCM activities and quantitative methods

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