Professional Documents
Culture Documents
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
NUCLEAR THREAT INITIATIVE
Moscow
IMEMO RAN
2010
327.37
66.4 (0)
CO 78
Foreword by Academician Alexander A. Dynkin at the Conference
Contemporary Nuclear Doctrines
Alexei Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin
and Sergey Oznobishchev
C 78
Contemporary Nuclear Doctrines
Alexei Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin and Sergey Oznobishchev
, 2010
CONTENTS
FOREWORD by Academician Alexander A. Dynkin,
Director, IMEMO RAN
4
SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
12
21
28
51
ANNEX 1
TABLE. Variants of military doctrines. Role of nuclear
56
weapons
ANNEX 2
Abbreviations
57
ANNEX 3
List of participants in the meeting held on October 21, 2010,
59
at IMEMO RAN
weapons. This is to say, the doctrines are important in terms of nonproliferation policy. It is no coincidence that resolutions on negative
security assurances for non-nuclear-weapon states have been adopted
at each NPT Review Conference and their Prepcom, and starting
1978 at each annual session of the UN General Assembly. The said
assurances imply the non-use of nuclear weapons against nonnuclear-weapon states. However, the numerous reservations that the
nuclear-weapons states tend to include in such obligations virtually
rob the latter of any constructive power.
Third, this element of the doctrine influences strategic stability,
since it relates the probability and possibility of a first nuclear strike.
Fourth, nuclear doctrines are indirectly linked to the prospects
of nuclear disarmament and advancing towards a world without
nuclear weapons (according to the obligation of the states under the
famous Article VI of the NPT). Indeed, if there is a commitment that
nuclear weapons will be used only in retaliation, a state could
logically renounce nuclear weapons, provided that other states agree
likewise. If a first (preventive) strike is deemed acceptable, nuclear
disarmament would seem more complicated.
Fifth, inasmuch as they influence on the progress in nuclear
disarmament, the doctrines indirectly impact the nuclear weapons
non-proliferation regime. Therefore, the doctrines to a certain extent
affect the situation in national and international security.
The revival of the idea of nuclear disarmament that was
triggered by the well-known article co-authored by the four
prominent U.S. public figures 1, has logically restored the issue of no
use of nuclear weapons at top of the international discussion agenda.
This topic was prolonged and developed in Russia in the article of
four wise men which appeared in October 2010 2.
See: Shultz G.P., Perry W.J., Kissinger H.A., Nunn S. A World Free of Nuclear
Weapons// The Wall Street Journal. January 4. 2007.
2
Yevgeny Primakov, Igor Ivanov, Yevgeny Velikhov, Mikhail Moiseev, From
Nuclear Deterrence to Universal Security (Izvestia, 15 October 2010).
., ., ., .
// . 15.10.2010 (The Russian text of the article is
available at http://www.izvestia.ru/politic/article3147325).
SUMMARY
Generally, a state military doctrine, including its nuclear
aspect, has a dual nature. On the one hand, it is a guide to action for
the countrys armed forces and defense industry inasmuch as it
defines the type of potential wars and conflicts and their probability,
as well as the aims and objectives of the countrys military
operations and the corresponding combat training and equipment
programs for the army and navy. On the other hand, a doctrine sends
a message to other countries, both potential adversaries and allies,
and contains a warning to the former and a set of guarantees to the
latter, while explaining under what circumstances and in what
manner the state will resort to military action. Given the huge
stockpiles of nuclear weapons that had been accumulated during the
Cold War, the world came to realize that using such weapons on a
large scale is unacceptable. Thus, the task of defining the ways to
deter the adversaries from resorting to nuclear weapons became a top
priority of a military doctrine agenda: to prevent a nuclear war either
through an intended attack or resulting from the escalation of
conventional military operations.
The U.S. Nuclear Posture Review was released on April 6,
2010. The Review outlines the approach of Barack Obama
Administration to the implementation of the Presidents Prague
agenda, for reducing nuclear dangers and advancing towards a world
free of nuclear weapons.
The analysis and conclusions of the NPR were driven by the
changed and changing international security environment. Several
key factors were taken into account: today's most urgent nuclear
threats that are posed by nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism;
the removal of Cold War rivalries - although there is an enduring
challenge in preserving strategic stability with existing nuclear
powers, most notably Russia and China; and the growth of unrivaled
U.S. conventional military capabilities and major improvements in
theater missile defenses systems.
8
wording as in the 1999 Strategic Posture. It is as if the newlyexpanded Alliance failed to agree on a new language for the issues
related to nuclear weapons, and therefore the old wording remained
unchanged.
The Alliance could have applied a more innovative approach, if
it had not been for a number of factors:
First, in the 1990s and early in the 2000s, relations of NATO
with Russia were quite unstable. Therefore, it was not possible to
achieve a long-term positive trend in the relations between the two
sides that could have a telling impact on the language of the Strategic
Concepts of the recent decades, in 1991, 1999 and 2010.
Second, during that period the legacy of the Cold War affected
the relations between the West and Russia.
Third, the political elites of the new NATO members have not
dismissed the phobias about Russia that were engrained in their
relations with a post-Soviet Moscow.
The situation may only be improved by practical cooperation,
as it has been outlined in the recent years and mapped at the NATORussia Summit in Lisbon in November 2010.
The idea of a world free from nuclear weapons has become
increasingly popular. Without steps in that direction, it would be
impossible to curb nuclear proliferation, to prevent terrorists from
getting access to nuclear weapons or to come to agreement on the
new weapon systems development.
Needless to say that it is of key importance to fundamentally
reshape the legacy of the Cold War in nuclear strategies, as well as to
ensure a more intensive integration of effort in order to address the
new challenges and threats.
11
INTRODUCTION
See Yevgeny Primakov, Igor Ivanov, Yevgeny Velikhov, Mikhail Moiseev. See
note 2.
14
1.
U.S. NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW 2010
Remarks as delivered by Mr. Jules Silberberg, Head of PoliticalMilitary Unit, Political Section, U.S. Embassy, Russia, at
IMEMO RAN October 21, 2010
The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review was released on April 6. It
outlines the Administration's approach to promoting the President's
Prague agenda for reducing nuclear dangers and pursuing the peace
and security of a world free of nuclear weapons. The review
identifies the steps needed to sustain a safe, secure, and effective
nuclear deterrent as long as nuclear weapons exist.
This is the third comprehensive review of U.S. nuclear policies
and posture since the end of the Cold War. It has been a truly
interagency effort conducted by the Department of Defense in close
consultation with the Departments of State and Energy.
The
President has been directly engaged and provided clear guidance to
focus the review. The release of this report better aligns U.S. nuclear
policies and posture with the current security environment,
emphasizing the need to focus on today's most pressing security
challenges: nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism.
The NPR lays the strategic foundation for a comprehensive
approach to these challenges. The President signed New START in
Prague on April 8; the Nuclear Security Summit was held on April
12-13, in Washington; and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Review Conference convened in New York on May 3. During the
course of the NPR, the U.S. consulted extensively with their allies
and partners. Washington will work closely with them in its
implementation.
The analysis and conclusions of the NPR were driven by the
changed and changing international security environment. There are
several key factors: today's most urgent nuclear threats are posed by
nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism; the easing of Cold War
rivalries - although there is an enduring challenge in preserving
strategic stability with existing nuclear powers, most notably Russia
15
and full scope life extension of the associated B-61bomb. This does
not prejudge future NATO decisions, which should be taken through
NATO consensus.
Having conducted close consultation with allies, we will retire
the nuclear-equipped sea- launched cruise missile (TLAM-N). We
continue to be able to extend our nuclear umbrella through forwarddeployable fighters and bombers, as well as U.S. ICBMs and
submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). We will continue
close consultations with allies and partners to ensure the credibility
and effectiveness of the U.S. extended deterrent in years to come.
The fifth objective is to sustain a safe, secure, and effective
nuclear arsenal. As the President has said, we will sustain a safe,
secure, and effective nuclear arsenal as long as nuclear weapons
exist. Several key principles will guide future U.S. decisions on
stockpile management:
The U.S. will not conduct nuclear testing, and will seek
ratification and entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test
Ban Treaty:
The United States will not develop new nuclear warheads. Life
Extension Programs (LEPs) will use only nuclear components based
on previously tested designs, and will not support new military
missions or provide for new military capabilities.
The United States will study options for ensuring the safety,
security, and effectiveness of nuclear warheads on a case-by-case
basis, consistent with the congressionally mandated Stockpile
Management Program. The full range of LEP approaches will be
considered: refurbishment of existing warheads, reuse of nuclear
components from different warheads, and replacement of nuclear
components.
In LEPs, the United States will give strong preference to
options for refurbishment or reuse. Replacement of nuclear
components would be undertaken only if critical Stockpile
Management Program goals could not otherwise be met, and if
specifically authorized by the President and approved by Congress.
The U.S. will modernize the nuclear weapons infrastructure
and sustain the science, technology and engineering base - over a
13% funding increase over FY 2010. This investment is critical to
addressing our aging infrastructure, sustaining our deterrent, and
19
20
22
Ibid.
23
24
25
Russias nuclear policy is only partially and barely offset by the data
that may be obtained from separate statements by official
representatives of the Defense Ministry and the military-industrial
complex. However, this information may at times be quite
inconsistent.
For example, there is information that four class 955 ballistic
missile submarine designed to carry Bulava-30 SLBMs will be
introduced within the next 10 years with another four SSBNs to
follow in the future. However, no data on the required appropriations
is provided. There is contradictory data on the retirement periods of
the heavy RS-20 missiles and the light RS-18 ballistic missiles
currently in the inventory of the Strategic Missile Forces (the
assumed periods vary from 2016 to 2020). Even vaguer is the
outlook for the development of a new strategic bomber system to
replace the TU-95MS heavy bombers. Meanwhile, it has been
announced that a new heavy ballistic missile will be developed,
which seems to be an obvious strategic miscalculation.
The information on the current composition of Russias nuclear
triad could be obtained primarily from the results of data exchanges
between the United States and Russia under the START I Treaty.
It is rather difficult to get an insight into Russias actual
nuclear policy compared to the situation of openness in the
developed democratic states possessing nuclear weapons. The reason
is that Russias nuclear policy is excessively closed not only from the
public and independent experts, but also from the main legislative
body of the state. Nuclear deterrence principles that Russia adheres
to, as well as the primary instrument of these principles strategic
and non-strategic nuclear assets, their state and development
programs require a higher level of transparency. The more so, given
the context of the US-Russian strategic arms reduction treaties and
the two countries possible consultations on limiting non-strategic
nuclear weapons and their cooperation on ballistic missile defense,
which has a direct effect on the possibilities for further nuclear arms
reductions.
Most importantly, moving away from totalitarian practice of
taking the decisions in secrecy and proceeding with developing
democracy in Russia is inseparable from increasing the transparency
of military policy and military organization, including their nuclear
26
component. The parliament and the society have the right to know
how and on what the states huge material and intellectual resources
are spent, how it contributes to the countrys defense capability and
reduces the possibility of the most dreaded catastrophe the nuclear
war. In this regard, more does not necessarily mean better. For
example, the parliament might inquire how much (including potential
costs overruns, as was the case with class 955 SSBN and the
Bulava-30 SLBM) it will cost to develop, test, produce and deploy
the new heavy ICBM, against whom it will be targeted and how
vulnerable it will be in fixed silos for nuclear or high-precision
conventional weapons of a potential adversary. It would also be of
use to calculate how many well-proven mobile and stationary Yarstype ICBMs with multiple reentry vehicles could be deployed using
the same budget and/or how much the effectiveness of missile attack
warning systems (including space-based systems) and strategic
nuclear forces combat command control systems could be improved.
All this requires rather an inclusive and open discussion and
independent expert estimates, in order to avoid strategic
miscalculation. For example, the secrecy in the policy-making
resulted in miscalculations in 2000-2001, when the decision was
made to abruptly curtail the ICBM land-based forces and their
modernization programs. Similar miscalculations may happen again
in relation to the new heavy ICBM or the issue of withdrawing from
the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) of 1987.
It is also essential in terms of finally proceeding to transform
such a legacy of the Cold War as mutual nuclear deterrence which is
obstructing the consolidation of the efforts of the two nuclear
superpowers to counter the real new threats. The mentioned article
co-authored by four Russian prominent political figures also notes
that mutual nuclear deterrence runs counter to the U.S. and Russian
interests 12. This viewpoint is also expressed in the resolution by the
U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the ratification of the
new START Treaty signed in Prague.
12
See Yevgeny Primakov, Igor Ivanov, Yevgeny Velikhov, Mikhail Moiseev. See
note 2.
27
3.
29
16
30
certainty that his famous 2007 Munich speech criticizing the Western
countries' position with regard to Russia, remained quite up-to-date19.
As for the second group of threats, it is obvious that NATO's
concern over these grows. The Alliance's spokespersons constantly
highlight the increasing risks of WMD proliferation and terrorism.
Political and expert community had had certain optimistic
expectations as to the new NATO Strategic Concept. Yet those were
right who had predicted that Brussels would not resolve to
significantly modernize its nuclear strategy and would be more likely
to confine itself to merely cosmetic changes consistent with the
current situation (i.e. expressing support to the idea of a future world
free of nuclear weapons).
The final result was quite disappointing compared to the
opportunities of the unprecedented process of elaboration of the
document presented in Lisbon. There were numerous consultations in
different formats involving representatives of Western and Russian
political and expert communities and devoted to the main provisions
of the document. Unfortunately, one can hardly find any trace of this
intense and unique brain-storming in the new document. Most of it
proved to be slightly modified provisions that had been included in
previous Strategic Concepts in 1999 and 1991.
Moreover, the new 2010 Strategic Concept has turned out
much more conservative than the recent US Nuclear Posture Review
containing many novelties as to Washington's intention to reduce the
role of nuclear deterrent and its readiness to take more active steps
towards strengthening non-proliferation regime and continue nuclear
arms reductions and limitations.
To give objective assessment to the major provisions of the
new Strategic Concept related to nuclear weapons, one should
compare it to the NATO document of 1999 based on the following
list of criteria:
What are the threats NATO nuclear weapons should
address?
19
See: Vladimir Putin. Upon my word of party honour. Kommersant. August 20,
2010.
: // . 20.08.
2010 (Russian text is available at http://www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?
DocsID=1495411).
31
See: Active Engagement, Modern Defence. Strategic Concept for the Defence
and Security of the Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation
(http://www.nato.int/lisbon2010/strategic-concept-2010-eng.pdf).
32
33
34
Ibid.
Ibid.
29
Ibid.
30
The Alliance's Strategic Concept. 24 April 1999
(http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_27433.htm).
31
Ibid.
28
35
32
37
See: the Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between
North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Russian Federation, Paris, May 27,
1997
(http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_25468.htm).
38
35
See: Meeting of the NATO-Russia Council, November 20, 2010, Lisbon.
(http://www.president.kremlin.ru/news/9568).
39
4.
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MODERN NUCLEAR
DOCTRINES
Generally, any states military doctrine, including its nuclear
aspect, has a dual nature. On the one hand, it is a guide to action for
the countrys armed forces and defense industry inasmuch as it
defines the type of potential wars and conflicts and their probability,
as well as the aims and objectives of the countrys military
operations and the corresponding combat training principles and
weapon programs. On the other hand, a doctrine sends a message to
other countries, both potential adversaries and allies, and contains a
warning to the former and a set of guarantees to the latter, while
explaining under what circumstances and in what manner the state
will resort to military action. Given the huge stockpiles of nuclear
weapons that had been accumulated during the Cold War, the world
came to realize that using such weapons on a large scale is
unacceptable. Thus, the task of defining the ways to deter the
adversaries from resorting to nuclear weapons became a top priority
of a military doctrine agenda: to prevent a nuclear war either
following an intended attack or resulting from the escalation of
conventional military operations.
The relation between these two aspects in military doctrine
varies from state to state. It may also change in one state's military
doctrine over time. Indeed, official military doctrine of the USSR
was mainly an instrument of propaganda and had little relation to
actual military strategy and operational planning. In today's Russia
this relation is more tangible, which does not make the military
doctrine free from internal contradictions (and possibly makes them
more visible - reflecting actual problems of military planning,
technical development and budgeting).
Nuclear-weapon states' doctrines may be classified despite the
variety of official strategic concepts, considerable differences in the
weight of their political and propaganda elements, as well as in the
extent to which they reflect actual plans of using nuclear weapons.
40
41
42
40
43
50
CONCLUSIONS
1. The fundamental provisions of nuclear doctrines of contemporary
states are extremely resistant to change, in particular to discarding
the legacy of the Cold War; they tend to preserve previously
adopted concepts, primarily nuclear deterrence. Today, this concept
is an obvious anachronism in the official documents of Russia, the
United States and other world powers which proclaim the goal of
forging relations of partnership and broad cooperation on common
security. At the same time, it has become increasingly evident that
the deterrence does not work against todays most serious threats
the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and possible
catastrophic terrorism.
2. On the one hand, a military doctrine, including its nuclear aspect,
represents the guidelines for the countrys armed forces and defense
industry inasmuch as it defines the type of potential wars and
conflicts and their probability, as well as the aims and objectives of
the countrys military operations and the corresponding combat
training and weapon programs for the armed forces. On the other
hand, a doctrine is aimed at other countries, both adversaries and
allies. It contains a warning to the former and security guarantees to
the latter, by explaining under what circumstances and in what
manner the state may resort to military action, including use of
nuclear forces.
Despite the fact that nuclear doctrines do not always and in
full reflect real military operational planning, they are an important
element of national and international security. Most significant is
the degree of reliance of states doctrines on the concept of the first
use of nuclear weapons.
First, it affects a probability of a nuclear war in a crises
situation, in which one state may be under pressure to employ
nuclear weapons, if the red lines defined by the doctrine are
crossed by an opponent - while the latter may choose a nuclear
preemption to prevent an imminent nuclear attack or to reduce its
51
guarantees and influence on the allies (for Russia, the U.S., the UK
and France); a bargaining chip for negotiations on other issues with
other countries (for Russia, DPRK and potentially, Israel).
8.
Different nuclear-weapon states assign nuclear forces
different sets of roles. Presently, Russia is the only country with a
nuclear strategy that includes all these objectives. Russia's views,
reflected by its doctrine, need to be taken into account while
planning long-term and realistic policy of building a world without
nuclear weapons. There will be no serious progress towards this end
unless the circumstances defining Moscows belief in crucial utility
of nuclear weapons are changed or removed through agreements or
other measures.
9.
The political and expert communities in Russia must awake
to the fact that without advancing towards a world free of nuclear
weapons it would be impossible to curb the proliferation of nuclear
weapons and the scientific and technological progress in other
military spheres (ballistic missile defense, high-precision
conventional strategic weapons, space arms, etc.). These two
processes will eventually render nuclear weapons incapable of
performing the tasks that Russia is assigning to them.
10.
For Russia (as well as for China), progressing to a higher
level of transparency of nuclear doctrines and planning, and of the
strategic and non-strategic nuclear forces, their condition and
development programs, is in line with their long-term interests. This
is especially important in the context of the US-Russia relations in
the sphere of strategic offensive arms reductions, potential
consultations on the limitation of non-strategic nuclear weapons and
cooperation on missile defense systems.
11.
Without continuous transformation and, eventually,
abolition of nuclear deterrence, it will never be possible to proceed
to full-scale cooperation and partnership between Russia, the United
States and other nuclear powers and to reinforce their efforts to
counter the new threats of the 21st century.
55
ANNEX 1
56
ANNEX 2
Abbreviations
BMD
CFE Treaty
CSTO
CTBT
FMCT
HB
IAEA
ICBM
IMEMO RAN
INF Treaty
LEP
MIRV
NATO
NPT
NSP
NTI
SDI
SLBM
SNF
SSBN
START I
UN
UN SC
WMD
58
ANNEX 3
List of participants in the meeting held on October 21, 2010, at
IMEMO RAN
Alexander A. Dynkin, Director of IMEMO RAN, Academician of
the Russian Academy of Sciences
Alexei G. Arbatov, Head of the Center for International Security of
IMEMO RAN, Corresponding member of the Russian Academy of
Sciences
Ildar A. Akhtamzyan, Associate Professor, Department of
International Relations and Foreign Policy of Russia, Moscow State
Institute of International Relations (University) of the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs of Russia
Vladimir G. Baranovski, Deputy Director of IMEMO RAN,
Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Albert L. Gozal, Project and Promotion Manager, International
Science and Technology Center
Pyotr V. Goncharov, Political Commentator, RIA Novosti news
agency
Waclaw Gudowski, Deputy Executive Director, International
Science and Technology Center
Marianna G. Yevdotyeva, Senior Researcher, Center for
International Security, IMEMO RAN
Valery N. Ignatiev, Captain First Rank (rtd.), Principal Adviser,
Defense Committee, State Duma
Natalia I. Kalinina, Chief Researcher, Center for International
Security, IMEMO RAN
Alexander N. Kalyadin, Chief Researcher, Center for International
Security, IMEMO RAN
59
60