National Association of REALTORS

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK: 2016.Q2

Commercial Real Estate Outlook: 2016.Q2

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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

2016 OFFICERS
President
Tom Salomone
President-Elect
Bill Brown
First Vice President
Elizabeth Mendenhall, GRI, ABR, ABRM,
CIPS, CRB, PMN
Treasurer
Michael McGrew, CRB, CRS
Immediate Past-President
Chris Polychron, CIPS, CRS, GRI
Vice President
Michael Labout, GRI
Vice President
Sherri Meadows, GRI, CIPS, CRB, PMN
Chief Executive Officer
Dale Stinton, CAE, CPA, CMA, RCE

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK

CONTENTS
1 | Economic Overview

2 | Commercial Real Estate Investments..

3 | Commercial Real Estate Fundamentals

12

4 | Outlook...

14

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK

Gross Domestic Product

The U.S. economy sputtered during the first quarter
of 2016, as global economic activity throttled back
and companies found financial markets volatility
unsettling. Based on the first estimate from the
Bureau of Economic Analysis, real gross domestic
product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 0.5 percent.
The figure is in line with last years first quarter
reading of 0.6 percent. The GDP number remained
well below the long-run historical average of 3.0
percent.
Consumer spending was soft, rising at an annual
rate of 1.9 percent in the first quarter, with most of
the gain driven by services. Retail sales, which were
weak during the winter holiday season, posted
further slowdown. Spending on goods was virtually
flat, given the 0.1 percent increase. Spending on
durable goodscars, furnishing, appliances and
recreational goodsdeclined 1.6 percent.
Consumers spent more on food and gasoline during
the quarter, lifting nondurable goods consumption
1.0 percent. Consumer spending on services rose
2.7 percent on an annual basis, with transportation,
recreation, healthcare, as well as lodging and
restaurants driving expenditures.
The corporate outlook took a downward turn, with
business investments dropping 5.9 percent on an
annual basis in the first quarter. Businesses cut
back investments in equipment and commercial real
estate to the tune of 8.6 percent and 10.6 percent,
respectively. Investments in residential real estate
aided by a warmer winterpicked up, rising by 14.9
percent annual rate. Spending on intellectual
property productssoftware, R&Drose by 1.7
percent.

GEORGE RATIU
Director, Quantitative & Commercial Research
gratiu@realtors.org

Exhibit 1.1: Real GDP (% Annual Chg.)

5.0
4.0
3.0

2.0
1.0
0.0

-1.0
-2.0

Source: NAR, BEA

With the dollar rising, international trade bore the

brunt of a weakening economic environment.
Exports declined by 2.6 percent, while imports
moved sideways with a 0.2 percent annual rate of
growth.
Government spending moderated as well, notching
a 1.2 percent annual growth rate. The federal
government continued slashing spending, with a 1.6
percent decline, driven by cuts in defense
expenditures. State and local governments
increased spending at a 2.9 percent annual rate,
focused on infrastructure investments.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS | RESEARCH DIVISION | www.realtors.org/research-and-statistics

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK

Employment
The first quarter employment landscape offered a
few high points. Payrolls rose at a solid pace,
adding 609,000 net new jobs. Average weekly
earnings of private employees rose by 2.1 percent in
the first quarter of this year, compared to one year
earlier.
Employment in private service-providing industries
provided the main thrust for new job growth during
the first quarter of the year, with 561,000 net new
jobs. The retail trade boosted payrolls during the
quarter by 157,500 net positions. Education and
health gained 146,000 new positions. With warmerthan-usual weather, leisure and hospitality payrolls
rose by 95,000 net new positions. Employment in
professional and business services gained 70,000
net new jobs, the slowest pace in five years.
Financial services added 39,000 new positions to
payrolls during the period, keeping demand for
office space positive.

Exhibit 1.2: Payroll Employment (Change,

'000)

With demand for industrial properties rising,

transportation and warehousing employment gained
22,200 new positions, while wholesale trade
employment rose by 24,700 jobs.

Exhibit 1.3: Payroll Employment: 12Month Change ('000)

Government
Leisure/Hospitality
Educ./Health
Prof./Bus. Services
Financial Activities
Information
Utilities
Transp./Warehousing
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing

Construction

600

Source: BLS

Mining/Logging
400
-200

200

400

600

800

200

-200
-400

2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jun
2014 - Jan
2014 - Aug
2015 - Mar
2015 - Oct

-600
-800
-1000

Source: BLS

The unemployment rate averaged 4.9 percent in the

first quarter 2016. At the end of December there
were 7.9 million unemployed Americans, while an
additional 6.0 million were employed part-time for
economic reasons. The average duration of
unemployment declined from 31 weeks in the first
quarter of 2015 to 29 weeks in the first quarter of
this year.
The labor force participation (LFP) rate rose slightly
as more Americans returned to the labor markets,

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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK

but continued to hover at historic lows. The LFP

rate was 62.8 percent in the first quarter of 2015,
slid to 62.5 percent in the third and fourth quarters,
and rose to 62.9 percent in the first quarter of 2016.
In comparison, before the Great Recession the LFP
rate was 65.9 percent. With the Baby Boomers
retirement wave rising and discouraged workers
staying out of the labor force, economic growth is
likely to remain moderate.

Exhibit 1.5: Unemployment

12

Unemployment Rate (%)

45

Average Unemployment Duration (Weeks)

40

10
35
8

30
25

6
20

Exhibit 1.4: Labor Force Participation Rate

4

68

15
10

66

5
0
2001 - Jan
2001 - Dec
2002 - Nov
2003 - Oct
2004 - Sep
2005 - Aug
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jun
2008 - May
2009 - Apr
2010 - Mar
2011 - Feb
2012 - Jan
2012 - Dec
2013 - Nov
2014 - Oct
2015 - Sep

67

65
64

Source: BLS

63
2001 - Jan
2001 - Nov
2002 - Sep
2003 - Jul
2004 - May
2005 - Mar
2006 - Jan
2006 - Nov
2007 - Sep
2008 - Jul
2009 - May
2010 - Mar
2011 - Jan
2011 - Nov
2012 - Sep
2013 - Jul
2014 - May
2015 - Mar
2016 - Jan

62

Source: BLS

Consumer confidence, as measured by The

Conference Board, was unchanged at 96.0 in the
first quarter of 2015, compared with the prior
quarter. Separately, the Consumer sentiment index
compiled by the University of Michigan moved up
slightly in the first quarter of the year to 91.6,
compared with the 91.3 value from the fourth
quarter. Both remain lower on a year-over-year
basis.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS | RESEARCH DIVISION | www.realtors.org/research-and-statistics

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK

Commercial space is heavily concentrated in large

buildings, but large buildings are a relatively small
number of the overall stock of commercial buildings.
Based on Energy Information Administration data
approximately 72 percent of commercial buildings
are less than 10,000 square feet in size.1 An
additional eight percent of commercial buildings are
less than 17,000 square feet in size. In short, the
commercial real estate market is bifurcated, with the
majority of buildings (81 percent) relatively small
(SCRE), but with the bulk of commercial space (71
percent) in the larger buildings (LCRE).

Billions

Commercial sales transactions span the price

spectrum, but tend to be measured and reported
based on size. CRE deals at the higher end$2.5
million and abovecomprise a large share of
investment sales, and generally receive most of the
press coverage. Smaller commercial transactions
tend to be obscured given their size. However,
these smaller properties provide the types of
commercial space that the average American
encounters on a daily basise.g. neighborhood
shopping centers, warehouses, small offices,
supermarkets, etc. These are the types of buildings
that are important in local communities, and
REALTORS are active in serving these markets.

Large Commercial Real Estate Markets

The pace of commercial transactions dropped in the
first quarter of 2016, following an upbeat 2015. The
volume of commercial sales in LCRE markets
totaled $111 billion, a 20 percent year-over-year
decrease, according to Real Capital Analytics
(RCA). The first quarter data saw yearly declines in
both individual and portfolio transactions, of 11
percent and 24 percent, respectively.
Continuing the trends from 2015, apartment
transactions comprised the largest share of first
quarter volume, with $38.6 billion in sales, followed
by office properties, which accounted for $31.2
billion. Retail and industrial sales totaled $17.9
billion and $12.6 billion, respectively.

Exhibit 2.1: CRE Sales Volume ($2.5M+)

Individual

$180.00

Portfolio

Entity

$160.00
$140.00
$120.00
$100.00
$80.00
$60.00
$40.00
$20.00
15Q4

15Q1

14Q2

13Q3

12Q4

12Q1

11Q2

10Q3

09Q4

09Q1

08Q2

07Q3

06Q4

06Q1

$-

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Smith and Ratiu, (2015), "Small Commercial Real Estate Market,"

National Association of REALTORS

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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK

Even with declining sales volume, prices in LCRE

markets rose. However, the advances moderated
from the fast pace of the past two years. Prices in
markets covered by Real Capital Analytics gained
8.6 percent during the first quarter of 2016, based
on RCAs Commercial Property Price Index. The
advance was driven by strong appreciation in prices
of retail and apartment properties, which advanced
11.8 percent and 11.2 percent, respectively. Prices
for office properties in central business districts
(CBD) advanced 10.5 percent.

Exhibit 2.2: Commercial Property Price

Indices
NCREIF

Green Street Advisors

Real Capital Analytics

300

Capitalization rates in LCRE markets averaged 6.7

percent in the first quarter, based on RCA reports,
30 basis points lower compared with the prior year.
Cap rate compression continued for apartment and
office CBD properties, reaching values of 5.7
percent and 5.4 percent, respectively.

Exhibit 2.3: NCREIF Property Index Returns

2016.Q1
NATIONAL

2.21%

OFFICE

1.72%

INDUSTRIAL

2.96%

RETAIL

2.96%

APARTMENT

1.87%

Source: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries

250
200
150
100
50

2016 - Q1

2015 - Q1

2014 - Q1

2013 - Q1

2012 - Q1

2011 - Q1

2010 - Q1

2009 - Q1

2008 - Q1

2007 - Q1

2006 - Q1

2005 - Q1

2004 - Q1

2003 - Q1

2002 - Q1

2001 - Q1

Separately, additional price indices also advanced.

The Green Street Advisors Commercial Property
Price Index rose 8.4 percent on a yearly basis
during the first quarter, reaching a value of 123.4.
The National Council of Real Estate investment
Fiduciaries (NCREIF) Price Index increased 8.7
percent year-over-year in the first quarter of 2016, to
a value of 257.3.
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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK

Exhibit 2.5: Sales Prices (YoY % Chg)

Small Commercial Real Estate Markets

The proportion of members who closed deals in the

fourth quarter of 2015 declined to 58 percent, from
66 percent in the fourth quarter, and was also lower
than the 60 percent recorded in the prior year. The
direction of commercial business opportunities
during the first quarter of 2016 rose 5.2 percent from
the prior quarter, and was up 16.0 percent yearover-year.

Exhibit 2.4: Sales Volume (YoY % Chg)

Real Capital Analytics CRE Markets
REALTOR CRE Markets
200%
150%

100%

Real Capital Analytics CRE Markets

REALTOR CRE Markets
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%

Exhibit 2.6: Cap Rates - 2015.Q4

0%

10.0%
2008.Q4
2009.Q2
2009.Q4
2010.Q2
2010.Q4
2011.Q2
2011.Q4
2012.Q2
2012.Q4
2013.Q2
2013.Q4
2014.Q2
2014.Q4
2015.Q2
2015.Q4

-100%

Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics

Average capitalization rates declined to an average

7.2 percent across all property types, a 57 basis
point compression on a yearly basis. Apartments
posted the lowest cap rate, at 6.9 percent, followed
by hotel properties with average cap rates at 7.1
percent. Office and retail spaces tied with cap rates
of 7.3 percent. Industrial transactions reported the
highest comparative cap rates7.4 percent. It is
worth noting that these cap rates are higher than
those in LCRE markets, reflecting activity in markets
where REALTORS are more engaged.

50%

-50%

2008.Q4
2009.Q2
2009.Q4
2010.Q2
2010.Q4
2011.Q2
2011.Q4
2012.Q2
2012.Q4
2013.Q2
2013.Q4
2014.Q2
2014.Q4
2015.Q2
2015.Q4

Commercial real estate in smaller markets

maintained its upward momentum during the first
quarter, with REALTORS reporting continued
improvement in fundamentals and investment sales.
The volume of investment sales in REALTORS
markets totaled $51.6 billion during the first quarter.
The pace of sales picked up, with volume rising 8.5
percent from the first quarter of 2015.

Sources: NAR, RCA

The shortage of available inventory continued as the

number one concern for NAR members, pushing
price growth upward. Commercial properties traded
at average prices 5.1 percent higher compared with
the same period in 2015. The average transaction
price reached $1.4 million in the first quarter of
2016.

RCA Markets

REALTOR Markets

8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%

Office

Industrial

Retail

Apartment

Hotel

Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics

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10

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK

The interest rate on 10-year Treasury Notesa

Exhibit 2.7: CRE Spreads: Cap Rates to 10standard measure of risk-free investments
Yr. T-Notes (bps)
averaged 1.8 percent during the first quarter of
2016, the lowest point since 2013. Based on the
RCA Cap Rates
REALTORS Cap Rates
1200
prevailing rates, the spread between cap rates and
10-year Treasury Notes ranged from 490 basis
1000
points in LCRE markets to 540 basis points in SCRE
800
markets. The spread indicates that CRE investors
continue to enjoy healthy returns in the markets.
600
400
200
0

Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics

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11

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK

Large Commercial Real Estate Markets

Demand for commercial leases continued rising
during the first quarter of 2016. Construction has
been growing across all property types, but the gap
between demand and supply exerted downward
pressure on availability.
Office net absorption totaled 7.7 million square feet
in the first quarter of the year, a decline from last
quarters 18.7 million square feet, based on data
from JLL. Occupancy growthexpansionary
leasesdrove leasing activity during the quarter,
coupled with increases in shared office space.
Office construction added 10.6 million square feet to
the supply pipeline during the quarter. Overall office
vacancies rose 10 basis points on a yearly basis, to
14.8 percent in the first quarter. CBD office
properties continued posting lower availability than
their suburban counterparts. Rents for office
properties rose 3.2 percent during the first quarter.

employment and confidence. Retain net absorption

totaled 18.6 million square feet in the first quarter of
2016, a 20.8 percent increase from a year ago,
according to JLL. Retail development activity
remained modest, driving rent growth. Rents for
retail properties rose 1.5 percent during the quarter.
Vacancy rates for retail buildings declined 40 basis
points, to 5.6 percent, based on JLL data.
Demand for multifamily properties continued on an
upward path. Renter occupied housing units totaled
42.9 million units in the first quarter of 2015, a
363,000 unit advance from the first quarter of 2015,
based on U.S. Census Bureau data. National
vacancy rates averaged 7.0 percent for rental
housing during the first quarter, 10 basis points
lower than the same period in 2015. Median rents
for rental units averaged $870 in the first quarter of
this year.

The industrial sector recorded rising fundamentals in

the first quarter, with rising demand and declining
vacancies. Industrial net absorption totaled 52.3
million square feet in the first quarter, up 6.6 percent
year-over-year, according to JLL. Warehouse and
distribution centers accounted for the largest share
of demand, followed by manufacturing and special
purpose buildings. Speculative supply increased, as
well. New completions totaling 48.8 million square
feet, of which 37.5 million square feet were
speculative. Demand continued outpacing supply,
driving industrial vacancies down to 6.2 percent, 50
basis points from the prior year. Industrial rents rose
5.9 percent, to an average of $4.92 per square foot
in the first quarter.

The retail sector is tracking demographic changes

and affluent buyers and growing markets. Demand
for retail properties increased in tandem with rising
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12

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK

Small Commercial Real Estate Markets

Lease terms remained steady, with 36-month and

60-month leases capturing 59 percent of the market.

Commercial fundamentals in smaller markets

continued improving during the first quarter of 2016,
but at a slower pace. Leasing volume during the
quarter rose 1.3 percent over the prior quarter.
Leasing rates advanced at a slower pace as well,
rising 1.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with
the 2.5 percent advance recorded during the fourth
quarter. Office properties posted leases averaging
$43 per square foot, while retail and industrial
leases recorded $29 and $38 per square foot,
respectively. Average apartment rents for the first
quarter were $785 per unit.

Vacancy rates varied across regional and product

types in REALTORS markets. Office vacancies
declined 174 basis points, to 13.4 percent during the
first quarter. Industrial availability reached 11.1
percent, a 23-basis point decrease on a yearly
basis. Even with soft retail sales, retail vacancies
declined 122 basis points, to 12.5 percent during the
quarter. As rising new supply loosens major
markets, apartments in SCRE markets experienced
availability decreases, with the national average
declining 61 basis points year-over-year, to 7.2
percent in the first quarter of 2016.

Exhibit 3.1: REALTORS Fundamentals

New Construction

Lease concessions declined 3.9 percent. Tenant

improvement (TI) allowances averaged $9 per
square foot per year nationally.

Leasing Volume

5%

Exhibit 3.2: REALTORS Commercial

Vacancy Rates

2015.Q4

2015.Q2

2014.Q4

2014.Q2

2013.Q4

2013.Q2

2012.Q4

2012.Q2

2011.Q4

-15%

-20%

Industrial

Multifamily

Hotel

Retail

25.0%

-25%

20.0%

2016.Q1

2015.Q3

2015.Q1

2014.Q3

2014.Q1

2013.Q3

2013.Q1

2012.Q3

Tenant demand remained strongest in the 5,000

square feet and below segment, accounting for 80.0
percent of leased properties. Demand for space in
the 10,000 49,999 square feet segment slowed
during the first quarter, comprising 5.0 percent of
total.

2012.Q1

NAR members average gross lease volume for the 10.0%

quarter was $473,000, 36.4 percent lower than the
5.0%
previous period. New construction picked up,
0.0%
posting a 5.3 percent gain from the fourth quarter of
2015, compared with 3.7 percent in the prior quarter.

2011.Q3

15.0%

2011.Q1

Source: National Association of

Realtors

2010.Q3

-30%

Office
30.0%

2010.Q1

2011.Q2

2010.Q4

-10%

2010.Q2

-5%

2009.Q4

0%
2009.Q2

% Change, Quarter-over-quarter

10%

Source: National Association of Realtors

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13

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK

Economy
Looking ahead at the next three quarters of 2016,
the GDP annual rate of growth will pick up toward
the latter half of the year. However, in light of the
weak first quarter, the annual growth is pegged at
1.6 percent. Payroll employment is projected to post
1.6 percent annual growth rate for the year. The
unemployment rate is projected to fall to 4.7 percent
by the end of 2016.

Exhibit 4.1: U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOKMay 2016

Annual Growth Rate, %

Real GDP
Nonfarm Payroll
Employment
Consumer Prices

The markets continue to weigh the expected

Federal Reserves increases in the funds target rate. Level
Prices are expected to rise 1.7 percent over 2016,
Consumer Confidence
accelerating in the latter quarters as housing costs
Percent
are adding upward pressures.
Unemployment
In light of increased market volatility and slowing
Fed Funds Rate
economic growth, consumer confidence has
3-Month T-bill Rate
moderated and is expected to hover below its long- Corporate Aaa Bond Yield
term average.
10-Year Govt Bond
30-Year Govt Bond

2014

2015

2016

2017

2.4

2.4

1.6

2.2

1.9
1.6

2.1
0.2

1.6
1.7

1.8
3.0

87

98

97

104

6.2
0.1
0.1
4.2
2.5
3.3

5.3
0.1
0.1
3.9
2.1
2.8

4.8
0.5
0.5
4.0
2.1
2.9

4.6
1.3
1.4
4.7
2.8
3.4

Source: National Association of REALTORS

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14

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK

Commercial Real Estate

Exhibit 4.2: Commercial Real Estate Vacancy Forecast (%)
2014.Q4 2015.Q1 2015.Q2 2015.Q3 2015.Q4 2016.Q1 2016.Q2 2016.Q3 2016.Q4 2017.Q1 2017.Q2 2017.Q3 2015 2016 2017

Office
14.9
Industrial
11.6
Retail
12.5
Multifamily 6.8

15.1
11.3
13.7
8.4

15.9
10.8
13.2
6.6

16.0
11.5
13.0
7.4

14.3
11.4
12.9
6.2

13.4
11.1
12.5
7.8

13.2
10.9
12.3
7.9

12.9
10.6
12.0
8.1

12.5
10.7
11.8
8.4

12.2
10.6
11.8
8.6

11.9
10.5
11.5
8.7

11.6 14.3 13.0 11.7

10.4 11.4 10.8 10.4
11.3 12.9 12.2 11.4
9.0 6.2 8.0 8.9

On the investment side, financial markets jitters

about interest rates will likely dampen the sales
pace in LCRE markets. In SCRE markets, increased
scrutiny from banking regulators has already
tightened lending conditions, with slower capital
flows into CRE transactions.

NCREIF
Green St. Advisors

$250

Exhibit 4.3: CRE Sales Volume ($2.5M+)

Forecast

$200
$150
$100
$50

$-

200
200
200
200
20'0
200
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201

Commercial fundamentals continue on an

expansionary path, with three of the four core
sectors tilting in landlords favor. As employment
gains drive demand, office vacancies are projected
to decline to 12.5 percent by the fourth quarter of
2016 and decline to 11.7 in 2017. Industrial
availability is estimated to drop from an average of
11.4 percent in 2015 to 10.8 percent in 2016. Retail
availability will continue shrinking, as vacancies are
projected to decline from 12.9 percent in 2015 to
12.2 percent in 2016. The multifamily sector
diverges from the others, as new supply coming on
the market has been exerting upward pressure on
availability. Multifamily vacancies are expected to
average increase over the next couple of years,
from 6.2 percent in 2015 to 8.4 percent by the end of
2016, and 8.9 percent in 2017.

Billions

Source: National Association of REALTORS

Source: NAR, RCA

However, In light of current global uncertainty, U.S.

CRE is likely to remain an attractive alternative for
investors this year. Investors will probably take a
more measured approach, leading to a moderation
in CRE prices. With cap rates at very low levels and
interest rates expected to rise, the price slowdown is
projected to impact Class A assets in top-tier
markets, where inventory shortages and crowding of
capital have led to the recent run-ups. Properties in
smaller markets, where the recovery only began in
2013 are likely to see continued price appreciation.

Exhibit 4.4: Commercial Property Price Indices Forecast

2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
165.1
168.2
186.5
195.2
211.9
224.9
63.5
74.4
87.1
92.2
99.4
106.7

2015
246.7
118.0

2016
249.1
120.1

2017
254.6
123.8

Sources: NAR, NCREIF, Green Street Advisors

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15

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

OUTLOOK

The National Association of REALTORS, The Voice for Real Estate, is Americas largest trade
association, representing over 1 million members, including NARs institutes, societies and
councils, involved in all aspects of the real estate industry. NAR membership includes brokers,
salespeople, property managers, appraisers, counselors and others engaged in both residential
and commercial real estate. The term REALTOR is a registered collective membership mark
that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of
REALTORS and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics. Working for America's property owners,
the National Association provides a facility for professional development, research and
exchange of information among its members and to the public and government for the purpose
of preserving the free enterprise system and the right to own real property.
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
RESEARCH DIVISION
The Mission of the National Association of REALTORS Research Division is to collect and
disseminate timely, accurate and comprehensive real estate data and to conduct economic
analysis in order to inform and engage members, consumers, and policy makers and the media
in a professional and accessible manner.
To find out about other products from NARs Research Division, visit
www.REALTOR.org/research-and-statistics

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

RESEARCH DIVISION
500 New Jersey Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20001
202.383.1000

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK | 2016.Q2