May 10, 2010

To: Interested Parties

Fr: Jeff Liszt / Molly Murphy
Re: Summary of General Election Polling Results in South Carolina CD-02

This is a difficult political environment for incumbents of both parties, and Congressman Joe Wilson is
vulnerable even in a traditionally Republican district. Wilson is polling under 50% against Democratic
challenger Rob Miller and more importantly, the campaigns will likely have similar resources for paid
FRPPXQLFDWLRQV:LOVRQKDVVSHQWPRUHWKDQKH¶VUDLVHGLQWwo consecutive quarters, and the informed
vote shows that if Miller continues to be competitive in fundraising, he can win.

W ilson fails to break the crucial fifty percent threshold against lesser-known Rob M iller

x Right now, 49% of voters say they will vote to reelect Joe Wilson while 42% say they will vote
for someone new.

x In a head to head matchup, Wilson leads Miller 49% to 34%. But right now, Miller has only 34%
name identification. As he introduces himself to voters, his vote share will grow substantially,
while 91% of voters already know Wilson and he has less potential to move them in his favor.

x African Americans support Miller 62 ± 15 percent, despite the majority not being very familiar
with him (only 47 percent can identify him). Running a simulation in which Miller receives 90
percent of the vote among African Americans and Wilson receives 10 percent, the vote narrows
to just 8 points (48 ± 40 percent Wilson ± Miller).
In a scenario in which the campaigns communicate equally, M iller takes the lead

x When voters hear basic information about both candidates, Miller takes a 4-point lead over
Wilson (47% to 43%). Miller obviously has better expansion potential ± on this informed vote he
takes a 47% to 11% lead among previously undecided voters, and a 12-point lead with
independents (46% to 34%). G iven the resources to be competitive in paid communications,
Rob M iller can win the race.
W ilson is fighting a political environment in which incumbency trumps party affiliation

x Voters in the 2nd District are angry with Washington, and neither party in Congress fares well
here. Republicans in Congress are viewed unfavorably by a 13-point margin (40% favorable /
53% unfavorable), and by a 48% to 38% margin voters agree that, ³-RH:LOVRQYRWHV too often
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x By a 2:1 margin, voters believe that,´WKHEHVWZD\WRFKDQJH&RQJUHVVLVWRWKURZRXWSROLWLFLDQV

IURPERWKSDUWLHVZKRKDYHEHHQLQ:DVKLQJWRQWRRORQJDQGDUHQ
WOLVWHQLQJWRWKHSHRSOH´
(61%). Just 30% say that, ³WKHEHVWZD\WRFKDQJH&RQJUHVVLVWRHOHFWPRUH5HSXEOLFDQVZKR
ZLOOVWDQGXSWR%DUDFN2EDPD1DQF\3HORVLDQGWKHOLEHUDOVLQ:DVKLQJWRQ´

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=501 live telephone interviews with likely 2010 General Election voters in SC CD-02.
Interviews were conducted between May 3-6, 2010. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically
based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for these results is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.