Topic 9: Engineering Uncertainty

Statistics in Chemical Engineering

As mentioned in topic 2, it would be unfeasible to build models without testing them first.
Apparently flawless theory sometimes fails in practice, and trial-and-error becomes a
fundamental part of engineering.
It would be equally unfeasible to develop projects without knowing what we to work towards.
The collection, analysis, interpretation and evaluation of statistics help engineers determine
a final goal for a given project. Is there a demand for what we are developing? What is the
mean production rate we can achieve in a day? What percentage of our production line will
be faulty? What is the risk associated with that we are developing? Being able to predict
the answer to these questions can have an economic impact on the company being
managed.
The answer to these questions lies in statistics. Statistics play a vital role in the
improvement, design and development of a system, and engineers rely heavily on their
appropriate use to evaluate their progress in a project. This is because external,
unpredictable factors come into play after implementation the term bug in computing
systems originates from a moth being stuck to a computers fan! The only way to predict the
likeliness of these events is through collection and analysis of data.
Say, for example, a chemical engineer is managing a project in a plant for the production of
a cleaning agent, which requires a 35 molar% of chlorine. How would he be able to predict,
for example, what percentage of the product will have the wrong composition due to faults in
machinery? Questions like this are an indicative of what to improve in a system.
Lets take a look at the data below:

Sample

Molar percentage of chlorine (mol%)

1
32.7
2
34.8
3
33.9
4
35.2
5
35.0
6
34.7
7
36.0
8
35.6
9
32.1
10
34.8

The area shaded in black should not

represent more than 5% of the area of the
graph.
Using the given sample, it is hard to
immediately determine if we are satisfying
the given requirements. Therefore, we will
use the normal distribution to know with
precision if with the given data, it is safe to
say the machinery is working well (with such

Firstly, it must be determined which range

is considered to be good enough for
production. For this example, the range 3238% will be considered to be appropriate.
Next, what percentage of the product has
to be within this range? We will set the
minimum to be 95%. This means that if we
were to look at a bell curve distribution
graph, the combined areas to the left of
32% and to the right of 38% would
represent 5% or less of the total area under
the graph:

a small sample size, it would be more convenient to employ the t-distribution, but that is
beyond the scope of this module).
The mean and the standard deviation are calculated to be:
= 34.48

= 1.24

Calculating the area to the left of 32%:

32 34.48
(
) = (2) = 1 (2) = 1 0.9772 = 0.0228
1.24
Calculating the area to the right of 38%:
38 34.48
1 (
) = 1 (2.84) = 1 0.9977 = 0.0023
1.24
0.0228 + 0.0023 = 0.0251
Hence, 2.51% of the produced agent is outside the desired range. The machinery can be
considered to be efficient.
The relevance of statistics is immediately appreciated in this example. If the percentage of
failure had been 2.5% higher, the system would have been considered faulty, and,
consequently, action would have taken place to address the issue:

machinery could be replaced

personnel could be fired to employ a better-prepared workforce
the composition could have been changed to suit it to the fault in the system

The list goes on. The changes are all time-consuming, expensive and difficult to carry out; a
company cannot afford to make them unnecessarily. The role of statistics then becomes
primary when making these decisions.

Questions

1. The number of faulty pipes produced in a certain factory is distributed binomially,

with the probability of producing a faulty pipe being 0.05. If 15 pipes are produced,
what is the probability that less than 3 of them are faulty?
Solution
Let X = the number of faulty pipes
P(X<3) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) = 0.9515 + 151 0.9514 0.05 + 152 0.9513
0.052
= 0.964

2. In the production of a long-stranded polymer, there are an average of 3 flaws in the

sequence of atoms due to incomplete reactions or cross-contamination for every 20
centimetres of length of the polymer. Assuming a Poisson distribution, what is the
probability there are 11 flaws in 60 centimetres of polymer?

Solution
3 1 = 2 , 3 3 = 9
P(X=11) =

9 911
11!

= 0.097

3. A certain pharmaceutical commonly used in pain relief is known to cause adverse

effects on patients if the pharmaceutical is not pure enough. A chemical engineer is
in charge of the production the pharmaceutical. He collects the following information
regarding the purity of the pharmaceutical:
= 98.7%

= 0.32%

Using a normal distribution, what is the probability a random sample of the

pharmaceutical has a purity of less than 98.3%?

Solution
Looking at a bell curve distribution
graph:
98.3 98.7
(
) = (1.25)
0.32
-1.25

Looking at the normal distribution table:

= 1 (1.25) = 1 0.894 = 0.106

Hence, the probability is 0.106.