3rd Quarter 2003

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

United States
Contents
United States Employment Outlook 2

The Americas Employment Outlook 14

Global Employment Outlook 16

About the Survey 18

About Manpower 19

The United States Employment Outlook

Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted with
employers across the United States to measure
anticipated employment trends between July and
September 2003. All participants were asked, “How
do you anticipate total employment at your location to
change in the three months to the end of September
2003 as compared to the current quarter?”
Of the U.S. employers that were surveyed, 20%
predict an increase in hiring activity for the third
quarter, while 9% expect a decrease in employment
opportunities. Thus, the Net Employment Outlook
is an 11% increase in hiring activity anticipated for
the third quarter. Although this indicates that
employers plan to do some hiring in the coming
months, it also shows that they are less optimistic
than they were in the second quarter survey and
notably more cautious than a year ago.
When seasonal variations are removed from the data,
the outlook drops to an increase of only 6%. This
marks the weakest job forecast in more than 12
years. It also continues the downward trend in hiring
activity that began in the first quarter of the year.

Net Employment Seasonally

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
3rd Quarter 2003 20 9 65 6 11 6

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Hiring activity is expected to slow across seven of
the 10 industry sectors, continuing the steady decline
that has been evident across the important
Manufacturing, Services and Wholesale & Retail
Trade sectors since the beginning of the year. The
Education and Public Administration sectors are
anticipating job cuts in the third quarter, as the
downward trend from the past several quarters
continues to gain momentum for these sectors.
The softness in third quarter hiring expectations is
especially apparent in the seasonally adjusted data,
as half of the industry sectors are expected to have
the weakest job outlook in more than a decade. These
sectors include Construction, Wholesale & Retail
Trade, Education, Services and Public Administration.
Mining is the only sector that expects an increase in
hiring activity over both last quarter and a year ago
at this time. The employment forecast for both the
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and
Transportation & Public Utilities sectors is expected
to be stable for the coming quarter, with increases in
hiring activity at identical levels to the second quarter
survey results.

Net Employment Seasonally

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Construction 28 7 60 5 21 6
Education 13 21 60 6 -8 -4
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 18 6 69 7 12 11
Manufacturing – Durables 20 11 63 6 9 6
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 19 9 67 5 10 7
Mining 25 10 61 4 15 11
Public Administration 15 14 65 6 1 -3
Services 19 8 66 7 11 7
Transportation & Public Utilities 16 10 68 6 6 5
Wholesale & Retail Trade 25 7 62 6 18 10

At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.

Hiring expectations across all four regions of the U.S.
are relatively consistent with the overall national
Employment Outlook for the third quarter. Although all
of the regions are reporting job growth expectations
in the July – September period, the hiring pace is
expected to be slower than it was in the second
quarter survey and decidedly more sluggish than last
year’s third quarter prospects.
Employers in the South reported slightly more
positive hiring prospects than the other regions, and
the Northeast is expected to lag the rest of the
country for the third consecutive quarter.

Net Employment Seasonally

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Midwest 21 9 65 5 12 5
Northeast 19 10 64 7 9 4
South 20 8 66 6 12 9
West 22 11 57 10 11 7

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Regional Comparisons
Midwest
Twenty-one percent of employers in the Midwest
forecast an increase in hiring, while 9% expect a
decrease, which creates a Net Employment Outlook
of 12%. When the seasonal variations are removed
from the data, third quarter employment opportunities
in the Midwest are expected to decline moderately
from last quarter and last year at this time.
In spite of overall reduced hiring activity in the region,
the bright spots include the Finance, Insurance &
Real Estate and Transportation & Public Utilities
sectors, which are both expected to improve from the
second quarter of this year. Conversely, considerable
job cutbacks are expected in the Education and
Public Administration sectors in the Midwest, with
substantial reductions in hiring activity compared to
the second quarter of 2003 and the third quarter of
last year.
Hiring activity is expected to move at a slower pace
than last quarter as well as the third quarter of 2002
across the Manufacturing, Services, Wholesale &
Retail Trade and Construction sectors in the Midwest
in the coming quarter.

Net Employment Seasonally

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 21 9 65 5 12 5
Construction 33 6 57 4 27 5
Education 8 27 59 6 -19 -17
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 20 4 71 5 16 15
Manufacturing – Durables 20 10 66 4 10 5
Manufacturing – Non Durables 20 9 67 4 11 8
Mining 14 14 72 0 0 -11
Public Administration 17 21 57 5 -4 -11
Services 17 7 70 6 10 5
Transportation & Public Utilities 17 9 69 5 8 6
Wholesale & Retail Trade 27 6 62 5 21 10

The Midwest Region is comprised of the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North
Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin.

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Northeast
In the Northeast, 19% of the employers surveyed
estimate an increase in hiring, while 10% predict a
decrease, which leads to a Net Employment Outlook
of 9%. When the data is seasonally adjusted, limited
job growth is forecast in the Northeast. The region
anticipates the weakest job market in the United
States for the third consecutive quarter and reports
a considerable decline in hiring intentions from a
year ago.
All of the 10 industry sectors in the Northeast are
headed for weaker job prospects in the third quarter.
The Construction, Education, Mining and Services
sectors are considerably less optimistic than they
were in the second quarter survey. Employers in the
Public Administration, Education and Mining sectors
anticipate job cuts in the third quarter, with educators
facing the most negative job outlook since 1992.

Net Employment Seasonally

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 19 10 64 7 9 4
Construction 30 9 57 4 21 4
Education 10 18 66 6 -8 -5
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 12 6 75 7 6 4
Manufacturing – Durables 18 10 65 7 8 7
Manufacturing – Non Durables 20 9 66 5 11 6
Mining 0 25 75 0 -25 -16
Public Administration 10 13 69 8 -3 -6
Services 19 8 64 9 11 5
Transportation & Public Utilities 14 12 70 4 2 0
Wholesale & Retail Trade 25 9 59 7 16 8

The Northeast Region is comprised of the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.

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South
Of the employers surveyed in the South, 20% expect
an increase in employment in the third quarter, and 8%
anticipate a decrease, which equals a Net Employment
Outlook of 12%. According to the seasonally
adjusted survey results, employment prospects in the
South are the most promising of any U.S. region and
have been for the previous four quarters as well.
Hiring intentions in the South are, however,
moderately lower than they were in both the second
quarter of this year and in the third quarter of 2002.
Job prospects appear best in the Mining sector
where employers are more upbeat than they have
been in seven quarters. Transportation & Utilities
employers estimate a hiring pace identical to last
quarter, while Manufacturing, Education and Public
Administration employers predict a more
conservative job pattern. Other sectors in the South
expect steady hiring in the coming three months,
although projections were more optimistic last
quarter and a year ago.

Net Employment Seasonally

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 20 8 66 6 12 9
Construction 26 5 64 5 21 14
Education 17 13 63 7 4 7
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 19 6 67 8 13 12
Manufacturing – Durables 23 11 59 7 12 9
Manufacturing – Non Durables 18 10 67 5 8 7
Mining 27 12 61 0 15 13
Public Administration 15 8 71 6 7 4
Services 20 7 67 6 13 11
Transportation & Public Utilities 16 9 68 7 7 7
Wholesale & Retail Trade 23 7 64 6 16 11

The South Region is comprised of the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,
Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

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West
Employers surveyed in the West report a 22%
increase in hiring intentions, while 11% estimate a
decrease, producing a Net Employment Outlook of
11%. When seasonal variations are removed from the
data, the survey results show that job growth is
expected to slow considerably in the West.
The steepest decline in hiring activity is expected to
occur in the Construction, Services, Wholesale & Retail
Trade and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing sectors
in this region, as employers in these sectors are
significantly more pessimistic about hiring prospects
for third quarter than they have been in a year or more.
The Construction sector results for the West are the
weakest since 1992. Consistent with the Northeast
and Midwest regions, job cutbacks are estimated in
the Public Administration and Education sectors.
The only bright spots in the Western Employment
Outlook are in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
sector, which is holding steady with the second
quarter hiring outlook, and the Mining sector, which is
anticipating a slight increase in hiring activity for third
quarter but has been very volatile in recent history.

Net Employment Seasonally

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 22 11 57 10 11 7
Construction 23 8 61 8 15 0
Education 21 25 50 4 -4 -1
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 20 7 63 10 13 10
Manufacturing – Durables 21 15 51 13 6 6
Manufacturing – Non Durables 21 8 60 11 13 10
Mining 31 0 50 19 31 24
Public Administration 16 14 62 8 2 -1
Services 24 10 57 9 14 9
Transportation & Public Utilities 18 10 64 8 8 6
Wholesale & Retail Trade 22 9 59 10 13 6

The West Region is comprised of the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico,
Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.

7
Sector Comparisons
In the third quarter of 2003, employers in the
Education and Public Administration sectors are
decidedly more pessimistic than in other areas, with
job losses on the horizon. While Construction and
Wholesale & Retail Trade appear to be the most
optimistic sectors for the quarter, this is indicative of
the normal seasonal trends. A review of the historical
and seasonally adjusted data for these sectors
reveals the real story for the upcoming quarter.

Construction 21
6

Education -8
-4
12
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
11
9
Manufacturing – Durables
6
10
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
7
15
Mining 11
1
Public Administration -3
11
Services 7
6
Transportation & Public Utilities 5
18
Wholesale & Retail Trade 10

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

Original Adjusted

8
Construction
The Construction sector is normally going strong in
the third quarter, while the weather is still amenable in
the northern states, but this year will be an exception.
Employers are anticipating steep declines in hiring
activity compared with both the second quarter and
Education
The new school year is likely to begin with fewer
employees in the Education sector. Employers within
this sector are anticipating a Net reduction in their
staffing levels in the third quarter. The seasonally
adjusted data reveals the most pessimistic forecast
9
a year ago. This marks the weakest Employment
Outlook for Construction since 1992. Hiring activity is
expected to be the strongest in the South and
weakest in the West.
since 1991 and the biggest dip in third quarter
employment prospects in 27 years of historical data.
Hiring levels will be strongest in the South and
weakest in the Midwest, where the survey results
show a decrease of –17%.
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
When the seasonal variations are removed from the
data, the strongest job activity of all the sectors is
expected in Finance, Insurance & Real Estate, a
distinction this sector shares with Mining. Despite
being the most optimistic sector, hiring expectations
for Finance, Insurance & Real Estate have plateaued,
Manufacturing – Durable Goods
The Employment Outlook for this sector has been on
a steady decline since the third quarter of 2002,
according to the seasonally adjusted survey findings.
Durable Goods Manufacturers anticipate a
conservative hiring pace for the coming quarter,
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with employers reporting the same outlook as they
did three months ago. The forecast was slightly more
optimistic a year ago at this time. Job prospects are
expected to be strongest in the Midwest and weakest
in the Northeast.
although it will be somewhat slower than in the
second quarter and considerably slower than the
third quarter of last year. The best job prospects are
likely in the South, as the Midwest braces for the
weakest job outlook in the country for this sector.
Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods
Employers in the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
sector foresee moderate job growth from July to
September, although the prospects are weaker than
both a quarter ago and a year ago. Seasonal
Mining
Mining is the only sector to report an increase in
hiring intentions over both the second quarter of this
year and the third quarter of 2002. In fact, the Mining
industry’s job outlook for the coming quarter is the
most optimistic it has been since the final period of
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adjustments to the data reveal the darkest third
quarter employment forecast in 21 years. The West
will take the lead in hiring activity for the quarter, as
the employment prospects fade in the Northeast.
2001. The seasonally adjusted data shows that
Mining has the strongest job prospects of any sector,
a distinction it shares with Finance, Insurance & Real
Estate. By a wide margin, the strongest outlook is in
the West and the weakest is in the Northeast.
Public Administration
Government jobs are headed for the chopping block
for the first time since 1991, according to the
seasonally adjusted data for the third quarter. Aside
from a one-quarter plateau at the end of 2002, hiring
Services
Only twice in 27 years of seasonally adjusted
historical data have job prospects for the Services
sector sunk as low as they have for the coming
quarter. The previous occasion was more than a
dozen years ago in the second quarter of 1991.
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expectations within this sector have gradually
dwindled for nearly two years. While the Midwest
appears set to cut the most jobs, there will still be a
few new job opportunities in the South.
In spite of this dire comparison, employers in the
Services sector still expect to hire at a modest pace
for the third quarter, with the strongest job prospects
in the South.
Transportation & Public Utilities
The third quarter Net Employment Outlook for the
Transportation & Public Utilities sector shows a slight
upturn in job opportunities – the first anticipated
increase in five quarters. When seasonal variations
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Third quarter marks the beginning of the holiday
hiring season. For that reason, it is traditionally one of
the strongest hiring quarters for the Wholesale &
Retail Trade sector. The seasonally adjusted data,
13
are eliminated, the forecast is identical to last quarter.
A mild hiring pace is predicted from July to
September, with the South expecting a little more
activity than other regions.
however, reveals a disappointingly steady job climate
in the coming quarter, with no real holiday hiring
spike anticipated. Job seekers would be wise to
head South for the best job prospects in this sector.
The Americas Employment Outlook
Over 20,000 interviews have been conducted across The United States, Canada and Mexico to measure
anticipated employment trends between July and September 2003.

International Comparisons
The three nations in the Americas are not currently
moving in unison. The highest Net Employment
increase was recorded in Canada. With more than
one-third of organizations anticipating an increase in
staffing levels, and only around one-in-twenty
expecting a decrease, the Net Employment Outlook
is +30%. Lower Net increases were expected in
Mexico and the United States, with Net Employment
Outlooks of +11% recorded in both nations.

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Outlook

% % % % %
Canada 36 6 56 2 +30
Mexico 24 13 63 0 +11
United States 20 9 65 6 +11

To provide greater perspective on the Net
Employment trends over time, we compare the
results across all three countries since Mexico
began its survey in 2002. As can be seen from these
data, the Canadian survey results have varied much
more dramatically than the United States and
Mexico, with a span of 31 percent between the most
optimistic and pessimistic Employment Outlooks
over the five quarters. The survey results from the
United States and Mexico have been closely
aligned, with the largest variations between the two
countries occurring in the third quarter of 2002 and
in the first quarter of 2003.

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Sector Comparisons
Within this section, we outline variation in the Net for both Industry and Services.
Employment Outlook across two broad categories:
The greatest differences are found between the
Industry and Services1. Comparing expected
nations. Across both categories, the Outlook in
changes in employment between the two categories
Canada was noticeably more optimistic than both
reveals no significant differences; across each
the USA and Mexico.
nation, the expected increases are virtually the same

Industry
Canada 27
Mexico 12
United States 11

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Services
Canada 31
Mexico 11
United States 11

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

1. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,
Transport Storage and Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services, and Public Administration.

15
Global Employment Outlook
Over 30,000 interviews have been conducted across 18 countries to measure anticipated employment trends
between July and September 2003.

Regional and International Comparisons

A high degree of variation was revealed across the Employment increases were also reported.
individual nations surveyed, with 12 of the 18
Four countries reported a negative Employment
countries reporting a Net Employment increase is
Outlook: Germany, Hong Kong, Japan and Belgium.
anticipated for the quarter. The highest Net
No Net change was expected in Austria and
Employment Outlook levels were recorded in
Singapore where the same proportion of employers
Canada, Australia, Spain and the UK. In Ireland,
anticipated an increase as expected a decrease.
Mexico and the United States, considerable Net

The Americas
Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Outlook
% % % % %
Canada 36 6 56 2 +30
Mexico 24 13 63 0 +11
United States 20 9 65 6 +11

Asia Pacific
Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Outlook
% % % % %
Australia 24 11 65 0 +13
Hong Kong 12 17 68 3 -5
Japan 7 11 71 11 -4
Singapore 8 8 78 6 0

Europe
Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Outlook
% % % % %
Austria 13 13 73 1 0
Belgium 5 7 86 2 -2
France 10 7 80 3 +3
Germany 9 19 72 0 -10
Ireland 23 11 66 0 +12
Italy 18 10 72 0 +8
Netherlands 8 3 87 2 +5
Norway 18 11 70 1 +7
Spain 22 9 68 1 +13
Sweden 14 10 75 1 +4
UK 21 8 71 0 +13

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Sector Comparisons
Below, we compare the Net Employment Outlook for significantly better Employment Outlook than the
each country across two main categories: Industry Industry category; and in Sweden, Austria and the
and Services . For most countries, little variation
1
UK where, conversely, employers in the Industry
existed between the two categories in each country. category reported a much more positive outlook than
The only exceptions are in Hong Kong and Spain, in the Services category.
where the Services category is expected to have a

Industry Services

Canada 27 Canada 31
Mexico 12 Mexico 11
United States 11 United States 11

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

Australia 14 Australia 12
Hong Kong -12 Hong Kong -3
Japan -4 Japan -4
Singapore 0 Singapore 0

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

Austria 6 Austria -4
Belgium 1 Belgium -2
France 4 France 2
Germany -8 Germany -11
Ireland 13 Ireland 13
Italy 9 Italy 7
Netherlands 2 Netherlands 6
Norway 7 Norway 7
Spain 7 Spain 17
Sweden 15 Sweden -1
UK 18 UK 11

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

1. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,
Transport, Storage and Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services, and Public Administration.

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About the Survey
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted
quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or
decrease the number of employees in their workforce during
the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 40
years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment
activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of
the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area
of focus.
Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the
only forward-looking survey, asking employers to forecast
employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys
and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what
occurred in the past.
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived
all of its information from a single question.
Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative
sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it
is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from
Manpower’s customer base.
Robust: The survey is based on interviews with 30,000 public
and private employers across eighteen national economies to
measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This
sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific
sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.
Methodology
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using
a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest
standards in market research. The research team for the 18
countries where the survey is currently conducted includes
Manpower’s Market Intelligence team; the Research &
Diagnostics Division of The Empower Group – an independent
operating division of Manpower Inc.; NOP World and Grupo
IDM. The survey has been structured to be representative of
each national economy. The margin of error for all national,
regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.8%.
In the United States, the national survey is conducted by
Manpower’s North American Market Intelligence Team and
includes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, the
margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.
Survey Question
All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked
the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment at
your location to change in the three months to the end of
September 2003 as compared to the current quarter?”
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Net Employment Outlook
Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment
Outlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of
employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and
subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect
to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next
quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment
Outlook.
Seasonal Adjustment
Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for the
United States and United Kingdom to provide additional insight
into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to
review the data without the employment fluctuations that
normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a
clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to add
seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the
future, as more historical data is compiled.
Sectors
The industry sectors that are reported for each country in this
report are representative of the local economy. In some areas
of the report, we have reported the data in two broad sector
categories: Industry and Services. These categories are
consistent with standards of other respected international data
sources. The “Industry” category includes sectors such as:
construction, manufacturing, mining and public utilities. The
“Services” category includes wholesale and retail trade;
restaurants and hotels; transportation and storage;
communication; finance; insurance; real estate; other business
services and public administration.
History of the Survey
1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of the
United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly
Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts the
same forward-looking research format as the United
States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
Research methodology is updated to evolve with
advancements in the field of market research.
2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research
methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total 18
countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium,
Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy,
Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain,
Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.
About Manpower Inc.
Manpower Inc. is a world leader in the staffing industry,
providing workforce management services and solutions to
customers through 3,900 offices in 63 countries. The firm
annually provides employment to two million people worldwide
and is an industry leader in employee assessment and
training. Manpower also provides a range of staffing solutions,
engagement and consulting services worldwide under the
subsidiary brands of Brook Street, Elan, The Empower Group
and Jefferson Wells. More information on Manpower Inc. can
be found at the company’s Web site, www.manpower.com.

In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range of

HR services, in addition to providing administrative, industrial
and contact center personnel. Under the Manpower
Professional brand, the company places contract professionals
on assignment in areas such as information technology,
scientific, finance, engineering and telecommunications. More
information about Manpower’s U.S. operation can be found at
www.us.manpower.com.

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 Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Dr., Milwaukee, WI 53217
Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com

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