Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Manpower
Employment
Outlook Survey
United States
Q2/06
Contents
About Manpower 21
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
employers across the expect no change in hiring activity, while 6% have yet to
decide on their April – June hiring plans.
United States to measure When the seasonal variations are removed from the
anticipated employment data, the second quarter hiring projections follow the
pattern of the eight preceding quarters. Since the
trends between April and second quarter of 2004, there has been almost no
June 2006. All participants change in the Net Employment Outlook for the United
States, and the momentum of this healthy hiring pace
were asked, “How do you is expected to continue through the middle of 2006.
anticipate total employment Please note that throughout this report, the figure used
at your location to change in all graphs is the ‘‘Net Employment Outlook’’. This
figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers
in the three months to anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting
the end of June 2006 as from this the percentage of employers that expect to
see a decrease in employment at their location in the
compared to the current next quarter.
quarter?”
Net Employment Seasonally
Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
2nd Quarter 2006 30 6 58 6 24 21
1st Quarter 2006 23 10 61 6 13 20
4th Quarter 2005 29 8 57 6 21 20
3rd Quarter 2005 31 6 57 6 25 21
2nd Quarter 2005 30 7 58 5 23 20
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30
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15
10
5
0
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.
2
Employers in seven of the 10 industry sectors report are slightly more optimistic about hiring than they were
hiring plans that are on par with first quarter expectations, at the start of the year, while employer confidence in the
including Construction, Durable and Non-Durable Public Administration sector has dipped.
Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,
A year-over-year comparison reveals similar hiring plans
Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate
among employers in Durable and Non-Durable Goods
and Services.
Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade and Services.
Job prospects in the Mining sector are expected to pick Construction, Education and Mining employers report
up considerably during the April – June period. A dip in stronger job prospects than in the second quarter of
hiring activity was predicted for the early months of the 2005, while those in the Transportation/Public Utilities,
year, but anticipated hiring for second quarter more Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Public
than makes up for the weak start. Education employers Administration sectors foresee a softer job market.
At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.
The hiring outlook for the U.S. regions shows virtually Employers in the West are slightly more optimistic about
no change from first quarter projections. Staffing plans their staffing plans than they were last year at this time.
for the Northeast, Midwest, South and West are all
Employers in the West are most optimistic about their
expected to remain consistent through June 2006.
staffing plans, while those in the Midwest and Northeast
The April – June hiring pace is also about the same as express the weakest hiring intentions.
it was a year ago in the Northeast, Midwest and South.
3
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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30
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15
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5
0
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South
Dakota, Wisconsin.
4
Northeast When compared with the beginning months of 2006,
Wholesale/Retail Trade employers foresee a strong
Twenty-seven percent of employers in the Northeast are acceleration in the hiring pace for the coming quarter.
likely to increase staff levels, while 9% expect to trim Employers are slightly more positive about staffing in
payrolls in the second quarter of 2006, resulting in a Education and Public Administration. Job market
Net Employment Outlook of 18%. On a seasonally optimism is fading in Durable and Non-Durable Goods
adjusted basis, hiring intentions are similar to those Manufacturing, and Construction. Compared with first
from first quarter and a year ago at this time. Among quarter, employer confidence in the Mining sector has
the four regions, the hiring picture for the Northeast is plummeted. Hiring is expected to remain unchanged in
at the weak end of the scale. Transportation/Public Utilities, Finance/Insurance/Real
Estate and Services.
30
25
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5
0
-5
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’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, Vermont.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,
Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.
6
West Fueling the job market strength are some considerable
improvements in employer optimism. The hiring pace
Thirty-five percent of employers surveyed in the West in the Mining, Durable Goods Manufacturing and
foresee an increase in employment levels, and 7% Transportation/Public Utilities sectors is expected to be
expect a decline in their payrolls. The result is a Net notably stronger compared with first quarter. A moderate
Employment Outlook of 28%. When seasonal variations gain in employer confidence is also evident among
are removed from the data, the West surfaces as the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Finance/Insurance/
region with the most promising employment prospects Real Estate and Education employers. Employers in the
for the second quarter of 2006. Construction, Services, Public Administration and
Wholesale/Retail Trade sectors expressed more
conservative hiring plans over first quarter.
35
30
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5
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah,
Washington, Wyoming.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
Sector Comparisons
Construction and Mining employers are the most confident
about hiring plans for the second quarter of 2006,
according to seasonally adjusted survey results. Solid
job prospects are expected in seven of the 10 industry
sectors, including Education, Finance/Insurance/Real
Estate, Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
Services, Transportation/Public Utilities and
Wholesale/Retail Trade. Employers in the Public
Administration sector are least optimistic about their
second quarter hiring pace.
Construction 40
28
Education 15
16
22
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
21
26
Manufacturing – Durables
22
21
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
19
34
Mining 33
18
Public Administration 12
25
Services 21
17
Transportation & Public Utilities 17
23
Wholesale & Retail Trade 22
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
8
Construction +28%
In the Construction sector, the hiring pace is expected
to remain historically high during the second quarter
of 2006. Seasonally adjusted survey results show
consistency in employer confidence levels compared
with first quarter of this year, while job prospects are
slightly improved from a year ago.
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
Education +16%
When seasonal variations are removed from the survey
data, Education employers expect a small pick-up in the
hiring pace during the second quarter of 2006. Hiring
plans are slightly more optimistic than those reported
for first quarter of 2006 and last year at this time.
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
35
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’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
10
Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods
+19%
According to seasonally adjusted data, Non-Durable
Goods Manufacturers foresee no change to the steady
hiring pace that has been in place for the past two years.
Employer confidence levels are identical to those reported
for the first quarter of 2006 and last year at this time.
30
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10
5
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
Mining +33%
Employers in the Mining sector expect to hire at a strong
pace during the second quarter of 2006. According to
seasonally adjusted survey results, Mining employers
have the most optimistic hiring outlook among the
10 industry sectors surveyed. Hiring plans are considerably
improved from first quarter, and employers report a
modest gain in the hiring pace compared to a year ago.
35
30
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’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
30
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’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
Services +21%
Job seekers in the Services sector can expect to
experience continued job market stability during the
April – June timeframe, according to seasonally
adjusted data. Employers have expressed little variation in
hiring plans since the second quarter of 2004, and
survey results are similar to those reported during first
quarter and a year ago.
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0
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
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Transportation & Public Utilities +17%
Seasonally adjusted survey results reveal that confidence
among Transportation/Public Utilities employers is
expected to remain steady during the second quarter of
2006. Employers are equally as confident about hiring as
they were during the first quarter, and just slightly less
optimistic about staffing plans than they were a year ago.
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
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’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
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’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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International Comparisons – Seasonally adjusted data for the United States paints a
picture of stability, with the same steady hiring pace seen
Americas throughout 2005 and the first quarter of 2006, continuing
in the second quarter. Employer hiring plans in Canada
Over 21,000 interviews have been conducted across
have improved slightly from both Quarter 1 and last year.
Canada, Mexico, Peru and the United States to
Strong hiring expectations are also found in Mexico,
measure employment prospects for Quarter 2 2006.
where the outlook is similar to last year at this time.
Across the region, Net Employment Outlooks show
employers in all four countries anticipate strong hiring Employers in Peru joined the survey this quarter with a
activity during the next three months. particularly optimistic Net Employment Outlook.
Canada Mexico
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Peru USA
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
Australia China
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
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Japan New Zealand
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Singapore Taiwan
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
Over 11,000 interviews have been conducted across Across the region, employment expectations are
12 European countries to measure anticipated strongest in Spain, Norway, Sweden and Ireland. Italian
employment trends for the second quarter of 2006. employers again reported the least optimistic and only
Hiring activity throughout Europe remains cautiously negative employment prospects. German employers
optimistic, with many employers predicting an increase have reversed their trend for negative expectations and
in hiring intentions from first quarter and last year at this reported a positive Outlook for only the second time since
time. On a year-over-year basis, the Net Employment the survey began in the country in Quarter 3 2003. When
Outlooks across Europe have improved in seven of the seasonal variations are taken into account, employment
12 countries surveyed. When compared to first quarter, prospects in the UK are slightly reduced from the first
hiring expectations have improved in 10 countries. three months of 2006 and last year at this time.
Austria Belgium
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
France Germany
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
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Ireland Italy
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Netherlands Norway
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Spain Sweden
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Switzerland UK
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area Seasonal Adjustment
of focus.
Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for Canada,
Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the United Kingdom and the United States to provide additional
most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it
world, asking employers to forecast employment over the possible to review the data without the employment fluctuations
next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on that normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing
retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. a clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in
all of its information from a single question. the future, as more historical data is compiled.
Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative
sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it
History of the Survey
1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
Manpower’s customer base.
1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of
Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than
the United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly
47,000 public and private employers across 24 countries and
Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts
territories to measure anticipated employment trends each
the same forward-looking research format as the United
quarter.This sample allows for analysis to be performed across
States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.
specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook
Methodology Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted Research methodology is updated to evolve with
using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest advancements in the field of market research.
standards in market research. The research team for the 24 2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment
countries and territories where the survey is currently Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research
conducted includes Manpower’s Market Intelligence team; the methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and
Organization Research and Analysis Division of Right Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.
Management Consultants – an independent operating division
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
of Manpower Inc.; NOP World, Grupo IDM and DATUM
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total
Research. The survey has been structured to be representative
18 countries and territories worldwide: Australia,
of each national economy. The margin of error for all national,
Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong
regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.1%.
Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,
In the United States, the national survey is conducted by Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom
Manpower’s North American Market Intelligence Team and and United States.
includes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, 2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
the margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
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About Manpower Inc. About Manpower USA
Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range
employment services industry; creating and delivering services of HR services, in addition to providing administrative,
that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work. industrial and contact center personnel. Under the
The $16 billion company offers employers a range of services Manpower Professional brand, the company places
for the entire employment and business cycle including contract professionals on assignment in areas such as
permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee information technology, scientific, finance, engineering and
assessment and selection; training; outplacement; telecommunications. More information about Manpower’s
outsourcing and consulting. Manpower’s worldwide network US operation can be found at www.us.manpower.com.
of 4,400 offices in 72 countries and territories enables the
company to meet the needs of its 400,000 customers per year,
including small and medium size enterprises in all industry
sectors, as well as the world’s largest multinational corporations.
The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity
through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across
their total workforce, enabling clients to concentrate on their
core business activities. Manpower Inc. operates under five
brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson
Wells and Right Management. More information on Manpower
Inc. is available at www.manpower.com.
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Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217
Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com