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Q3 2006

Manpower
Employment
Outlook Survey
United States

A Manpower Research Report


Q3/06
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Contents

United States Employment Outlook 1


Regional Comparisons
Sector Comparisons

Global Employment Outlook 13


International Comparisons – Europe
International Comparisons – Americas
International Comparisons – Asia Pacific

About the Survey 19

About Manpower 20
United States Employment Outlook
Nearly 16,000 interviews For the third quarter of 2006, 31% of U.S. employers
foresee an increase in hiring activity, and 6% anticipate
have been conducted with a decline in staff levels. Fifty-seven percent expect no
change in the hiring pace, while 6% are undecided
employers across the about their July – September hiring plans.
United States to measure According to the seasonally adjusted data, employers
anticipated employment foresee no change in the hiring pace for the third
quarter of 2006. The Net Employment Outlook for the
trends between July and United States is identical to employment projections
September 2006. All from second quarter and one year ago at this time.
In the U.S., employer confidence has remained relatively
participants were asked, unchanged for 10 consecutive quarters.

“How do you anticipate Please note that throughout this report, the figure used

total employment at your in all graphs is the ‘‘Net Employment Outlook’’. This
figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers
location to change in the anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting
from this the percentage of employers that expect to
three months to the end see a decrease in employment at their location in the
of September 2006 next quarter.

as compared to the
current quarter?”
Net Employment Seasonally
Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
3rd Quarter 2006 31 6 57 6 25 21
2nd Quarter 2006 30 6 58 6 24 21
1st Quarter 2006 23 10 61 6 13 20
4th Quarter 2005 29 8 57 6 21 20
3rd Quarter 2005 31 6 57 6 25 21

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.

1
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

When seasonal variations are removed from the data, Mining employers report a more noticeable change in
some positive industry trends emerge. Employers in four hiring plans, with a marked decline in confidence over
sectors - Transportation/Public Utilities, Finance/ second quarter.
Insurance/Real Estate, Services and Public Administration
Compared to a year ago at this time, employers in Non-
– expect slightly improved employment prospects for
Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public
the third quarter versus second quarter. Employers in
Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade and Education express
the Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
similar hiring intentions. The projected hiring pace is
Wholesale/Retail Trade and Education industry sectors
trending slightly upward in Durable Goods
expect the hiring pace to remain about the same.
Manufacturing, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Services
Employer optimism about hiring is starting to fade in two and Public Administration. Mining and Construction
industry sectors. Construction employers are less likely employers expect a weaker hiring pace when
to add staff in the late summer months than they were in compared with a year ago.
the April to June period, although the change is minimal.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Construction 40 3 52 5 37 24
Education 26 12 56 6 14 17
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 27 4 63 6 23 23
Manufacturing ñ Durables 33 8 53 6 25 23
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 28 7 59 6 21 18
Mining 24 3 69 4 21 18
Public Administration 25 5 64 6 20 16
Services 31 5 58 6 26 23
Transportation & Public Utilities 26 5 62 7 21 20
Wholesale & Retail Trade 34 6 54 6 28 21

At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.

Among the four U.S. regions surveyed, the Northeast is report hiring plans that are in line with those issued for
the only area to report a measurable change in hiring the April to June period and last year at this time.
plans over last quarter and a year ago. Employers in
Overall, employers in the South and West are most
the Northeast expect that slightly more hiring activity is
optimistic about their staffing plans, while those in the
in store for the third quarter when compared to the
Midwest express the weakest hiring intentions.
second quarter and last year at this time. Employers in
the remaining regions – the Midwest, South and West –

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Midwest 28 6 61 5 22 18
Northeast 30 6 57 7 24 20
South 32 5 57 6 27 24
West 36 8 49 7 28 24

2
Regional Comparisons Employers in half of the 10 industry sectors surveyed
report little change to their hiring plans in comparison to
Midwest +22 (18%) second quarter projections. This includes employers in
the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/
Among employers surveyed in the Midwest, 28% plan
Public Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/
to increase workforce levels, while 6% expect to cut
Insurance/Real Estate and Services industry sectors.
back on staff, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of
The employment picture is expected to brighten slightly
22%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, employers in the
for job seekers in the Durable Goods Manufacturing,
Midwest foresee a continuation of the steady hiring
Education and Public Administration industry sectors.
plans for the third quarter of 2006. Hiring projections
Construction employers are tightening the reigns and
are consistent with those reported for the April to June
predicting a slightly slower hiring pace. Job market
period and one year ago. The hiring pace in the
optimism among Mining employers plummeted, and
Midwest is expected to be slower than that of the other
much less hiring activity is expected during the late
three regions surveyed.
summer months.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 28 6 61 5 22 18
Construction 36 3 58 3 33 14
Education 20 14 61 5 6 9
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 20 2 71 7 18 17
Manufacturing – Durables 32 8 55 5 24 22
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 27 6 62 5 21 18
Mining 0 0 100 0 0 -12
Public Administration 21 8 67 4 13 9
Services 27 4 64 5 23 19
Transportation & Public Utilities 24 6 64 6 18 15
Wholesale & Retail Trade 32 5 59 4 27 18

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South
Dakota, Wisconsin.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Northeast +24 (20%) Employers in seven out of 10 industry sectors have


stronger hiring plans for the third quarter versus the
Thirty percent of employers surveyed in the Northeast second quarter of 2006. Mining employers are
expect an increase in employment levels, and 6% expect significantly more confident about their staffing plans.
a decline in their payrolls, which results in a Net A healthier hiring pace is expected in the Durable Goods
Employment Outlook of 24% for the third quarter of 2006. Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities, Finance/
When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the Insurance/Real Estate and Education industry sectors.
employment landscape in the Northeast is slightly Services and Public Administration employers foresee a
improved from second quarter and a year ago at this time. slight up-tick in the hiring pace. Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturers report stable hiring plans, while
Construction and Wholesale/Retail Trade employers
are slightly less confident about staff additions.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 30 6 57 7 24 20
Construction 37 3 54 6 34 20
Education 24 7 63 6 17 22
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 27 3 63 7 24 23
Manufacturing – Durables 33 8 53 6 25 22
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 27 8 58 7 19 16
Mining 25 0 75 0 25 42
Public Administration 21 4 67 8 17 14
Services 31 5 57 7 26 19
Transportation & Public Utilities 25 5 63 7 20 20
Wholesale & Retail Trade 32 7 54 7 25 19

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, Vermont.

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South +27 (24%) In five of the 10 industry sectors surveyed, hiring plans
are similar to those reported in the second quarter,
Among employers surveyed in the South, 32% plan to including Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
add staff, while 5% foresee personnel reductions during Wholesale/Retail Trade, Education and Services. The
the July – September period. This creates a Net third quarter is expected to bring a slightly improved job
Employment Outlook of 27%. On a seasonally adjusted market for the Transportation/Public Utilities, Finance/
basis, the results suggest an employment picture that Insurance/Real Estate and Public Administration
is similar to the second quarter of 2006 and last year industry sectors. Construction employers are slightly
at this time. This healthy hiring pace is among the more cautious about hiring plans for the third quarter,
strongest of the four U.S. regions surveyed. and Mining employers expect considerably weaker
hiring activity compared with second quarter.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 32 5 57 6 27 24
Construction 40 4 50 6 36 28
Education 32 10 52 6 22 22
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 30 5 60 5 25 25
Manufacturing – Durables 34 7 52 7 27 25
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 28 6 60 6 22 20
Mining 20 2 72 6 18 16
Public Administration 22 2 69 7 20 18
Services 32 4 57 7 28 26
Transportation & Public Utilities 26 4 64 6 22 20
Wholesale & Retail Trade 35 5 53 7 30 26

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,
Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

West +28 (24%) In a quarter-over-quarter comparison, Public


Administration employers report the most dramatic
In the West, 36% of employers foresee an increase in shift in confidence. The hiring pace for this sector is
the hiring pace for the third quarter of 2006, while 8% expected to pick up tremendously during the third
plan to reduce staff levels, which leads to a Net quarter. A slightly more positive jobs picture is likely
Employment Outlook of 28%. Seasonally adjusted in store for the Construction industry sector. Hiring
survey results indicate that employers in the West are projections are stable in the Durable and Non-Durable
among the most confident about hiring for the July – Goods Manufacturing and Wholesale/Retail Trade
September timeframe. Hiring plans are similar to those industry sectors. Employer optimism about hiring is
reported for second quarter and a year ago. fading in the Transportation/Public Utilities, Mining,
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Education and Services
industry sectors.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 36 8 49 7 28 24
Construction 52 4 39 5 48 37
Education 26 15 51 8 11 16
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 32 8 53 7 24 24
Manufacturing – Durables 40 8 46 6 32 29
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 38 12 44 6 26 24
Mining 42 8 50 0 34 24
Public Administration 39 6 49 6 33 30
Services 34 8 51 7 26 22
Transportation & Public Utilities 30 4 55 11 26 25
Wholesale & Retail Trade 36 6 50 8 30 22

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah,
Washington, Wyoming.

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Sector Comparisons
Job market optimism for the third quarter of 2006 is most
abundant among Construction employers, according to
seasonally adjusted survey results. Finance/Insurance Real
Estate, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Services,
Transportation/Public Utilities and Wholesale/Retail Trade
employers all report positive sentiments about their hiring
plans. Employer confidence is weaker in the Education,
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing and Mining industry
sectors. Public Administration employers are least
optimistic about hiring for the July – September period.

Construction 37
24
14
Education
17
23
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
23
25
Manufacturing – Durables
23
21
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
18
21
Mining 18
20
Public Administration 16
26
Services 23
21
Transportation & Public Utilities 20
28
Wholesale & Retail Trade 21

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Construction +37 (24)%


Construction employers are tapping the brakes when it
comes to hiring for the third quarter of 2006. According
to seasonally adjusted survey results, a slightly weaker
hiring pace is expected in comparison with second
quarter and a year ago.

A regional comparison shows that employers in the


West have the strongest hiring plans, while those in the
Midwest report considerably weaker staffing expectations.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Education +14 (17)%


When seasonal variations are removed from the data,
Education employers foresee little change in hiring plans
for the July to September timeframe. Hiring projections
are similar to those issued for second quarter and a
year ago at this time.

Those seeking jobs in the Education industry sector are


likely to find the most employment activity in the South
and Northeast versus the Midwest, where the weakest
hiring plans were reported.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

8
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
+23 (23)%
For the first time in a year, Finance/Insurance/Real
Estate employers have increased confidence in their
staffing plans. Seasonally adjusted survey results
indicate that third quarter 2006 hiring plans are slightly
more positive than those reported for last quarter, and
moderately improved from a year ago at this time.

Hiring plans are most promising in the South, while the


weakest hiring activity is expected in the Midwest.

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10

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’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Manufacturing – Durable Goods


+25 (23)%
According to seasonally adjusted survey results,
Durable Goods Manufacturers plan to maintain a steady
hiring pace during the third quarter of 2006. Employer
confidence levels are similar to those reported for
second quarter, and show some improvement from
a year ago.

Regional hiring patterns show that employers in the


West expect to offer the most promising job prospects,
while those in the Northeast and Midwest have the
weakest hiring intentions.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods


+21 (18)%
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers plan to hire at a
healthy pace during the July – September period.
Seasonally adjusted survey data shows little change
in employer confidence levels from second quarter and
a year ago.

Employers in the West are most confident about hiring


in the coming quarter, while those in the Northeast and
Midwest have the most conservative staffing plans.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Mining +21 (18)%


Employers in the Mining industry sector report a
significant dip in job market optimism for the third
quarter. When seasonal variations are removed from
the data, the hiring pace is projected to be much slower
compared with second quarter and down slightly from
a year ago.

By a wide margin, employers in the Northeast are most


optimistic about staffing plans for the third quarter, while
the employment picture in the Midwest is bleak.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

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Public Administration +20 (16)%
Public Administration employers foresee an up-tick in
the hiring pace for the third quarter of 2006. According
to seasonally adjusted survey results, the hiring
landscape is expected to improve slightly from second
quarter and a year ago at this time. Even so, Public
Administration employers still report the most
conservative hiring plans in comparison to the nine
other industry sectors analyzed.

Job seekers looking for government work are likely to


find the most active job market in the West and the
fewest opportunities in the Midwest.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Services +26 (23)%


Seasonally adjusted survey results reveal that
confidence among Services employers is expected
to creep up slightly during the third quarter of 2006.
Employers expect a small acceleration in the hiring
pace compared with second quarter and a year ago.

Hiring plans are most promising in the South, while a


more sluggish hiring pace is expected in the Midwest
and Northeast.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Transportation & Public Utilities


+21 (20)%
According to the seasonally adjusted survey data, the
hiring pace is expected to inch upward in the
Transportation/Public Utilities industry sector compared
with the second quarter. Hiring plans are similar to those
reported one year ago at this time.

Among the regions, employers in the West reveal the


most optimism in their hiring plans, while those in the
Midwest expect a more temperate job market.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Wholesale & Retail Trade +28 (21)%


For the third quarter, seasonally adjusted hiring plans
in the Wholesale/Retail Trade industry sector are
relatively consistent with those reported for the April
to June period and a year ago. There has been little
variation in employer sentiment about hiring for
10 consecutive quarters.

A rapid hiring pace is likely in the South, while


employers in the Midwest are most reserved about
their staffing plans.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

12
Global Employment Outlook
Over 49,000 employers have been interviewed across Austria are reporting the strongest levels of optimism
25 countries and territories to measure anticipated to date, while Chinese employers reported their least
employment trends* between July and September 2006. optimistic Outlook since the survey began in the country.
Employers in 23 of the 25 countries and territories On a regional basis, European employers in six countries
surveyed expect to add to their workforces in the third are more confident about hiring than they were at this
quarter of 2006. Hiring activity is expected to improve time last year. Employers in Asia are more reserved
in 11 of the 25 countries and territories compared to than three months ago with those in five of the eight
Quarter 3 2005, although employers in 14 countries countries surveyed intending to recruit fewer staff in the
say they will slow the pace of hiring compared to three third quarter. Across the Americas, employers in Costa
months ago. Employment prospects are most buoyant Rica were surveyed for the first time, reporting solid
in India, Hong Kong, Japan, Costa Rica, Taiwan and the hiring plans. Meanwhile, employment expectations in
United States, while employers are the least optimistic Canada, Mexico and the United States remain positive
in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. Notably, and stable.
employers in India, Hong Kong, Ireland, Belgium and * Comments in this section are based on seasonally adjusted data
where available.
Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change
Americas Quarter 3 2005 Quarter 2 2006 Quarter 3 2006 Q2 2006 to Q3 2006 Q3 2005 to Q3 2006
% % %
Canada 29 (19)1 29 (21)1 29 (19)1 0 (-2)1 0 (0)1
Costa Rica – – 24 – –
Mexico 18 (18)1 21 (20)1 19 (19)1 -2 (-1)1 1 (1)1
Peru - 31 16 -15 -
United States 25 (21)1 24 (21)1 25 (21)1 1 (0)1 0 (0)1

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change


Asia Pacific Quarter 3 2005 Quarter 2 2006 Quarter 3 2006 Q2 2006 to Q3 2006 Q3 2005 to Q3 2006
% % %
Australia 20 (20)1 20 (17)1 15 (15)1 -5 (-2)1 -5 (-5)1
China 13 21 6 -15 -7
Hong Kong 22 (19)1 25 (25)1 30 (27)1 5 (2)1 8 (8)1
India 34 40 43 3 9
Japan 14 (19) 1 43 (24)1 19 (24)1 -24 (0)1 5 (5)1
New Zealand 23 26 19 -7 -4
Singapore 11 (9)1 19 (22)1 14 (11)1 -5 (-11)1 3 (2)1
Taiwan 24 31 23 -8 -1

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change


Europe Quarter 3 2005 Quarter 2 2006 Quarter 3 2006 Q2 2006 to Q3 2006 Q3 2005 to Q3 2006
% % %
Austria 5 (4)1 7 (5)1 14 (12)1 7 (7)1 9 (8)1
Belgium 8 (6)1 8 (8)1 13 (12)1 5 (4)1 5 (6)1
France 4 (4)1 4 (5)1 4 (4)1 0 (-1)1 0 (0)1
1 1 1 1
Germany 4 (2) 5 (4) 1 (-2) -4 (-6) -3 (-4)1
1 1 1 1
Ireland 20 (17) 15 (15) 22 (18) 7 (3) 2 (1)1
Italy 3 (1)1 -1 (-4)1 2 (0)1 3 (4)1 -1 (-1)1
Netherlands 3 (2)1 7 (9)1 4 (2)1 -3 (-7)1 1 (0)1
1 1 1 1
Norway 17 (16) 16 (14) 16 (14) 0 (0) -1 (-2)1
1
Spain 10 (7) 17 (16)1 16 (12)1 -1 (-4)1 6 (5)1
Sweden 11 (7)1 16 (12)1 11 (7)1 -5 (-5)1 0 (0)1
Switzerland 0 9 5 -4 5
UK 12 (12)1 13 (11)1 13 (13)1 0 (2)1 1 (1)1
1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove seasonal variations.
13
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

International Comparisons – marks the first time that the survey has been conducted
with employers across Costa Rica, and the results
Americas indicate healthy hiring activity in the upcoming quarter.

Over 22,000 interviews have been conducted across Employers in the United States are forecasting the same
Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and the United solid hiring pace seen over the past two years, while the
States to measure employment trends between July hiring expectations in Mexico continue to be favorable
and September 2006. The overall regional outlook and similar to last year at this time. Conversely, hiring
continues to be stable and positive with the major North activity is expected to slow considerably from three
American labor markets moving in unison. This quarter months ago in Peru.

Canada Costa Rica


50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 2006.

Mexico Peru
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

Peru joined the survey in Q2 2006.

USA
50

40

30

20

10

-10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006

14
International Comparisons – Hong Kong are reporting their most buoyant Outlooks
since the survey began in this country and territory
Asia Pacific in Quarter 3 2003. On the other hand, employment
prospects in China, although positive, are the weakest
Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted across
in the region and the least optimistic since the survey
Asia Pacific to measure anticipated employment trends
was established there in Quarter 2 2005.
between July and September 2006.
Notably, employers in Singapore are reporting a Net
Employment prospects are positive across all countries
Employment Outlook that is considerably less optimistic
and territories surveyed in Asia Pacific, with employers
than three months ago, while New Zealand employers
in India expecting the most robust hiring activity – the
are reporting their weakest hiring plans to date.
most buoyant Net Employment Outlook reported
in India to date. Similarly, employers in Japan and

Australia China
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

China joined the survey in Q2 2005.

Hong Kong India


50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

India joined the survey in Q3 2005.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Japan New Zealand


50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004.

Singapore Taiwan
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.

16
International Comparisons – European employer hiring expectations are strongest in
Ireland, Norway and the UK. The least optimistic and
Europe only negative employment prospects were reported by
employers in Germany, while employers in Italy reported
Over 11,000 interviews have been conducted across 12
a Net Employment Outlook of zero. German employers
European countries to measure anticipated employment
continue to fluctuate between positive and negative Net
trends for the third quarter of 2006. By and large,
Employment Outlooks, reverting to a negative forecast
seasonally adjusted data shows hiring activity across
this quarter, which is weaker on both a quarter-over-
the countries surveyed in Europe remains optimistic,
quarter and year-over-year basis. Austrian, Belgian and
with the majority of employers expecting to add to their
Irish employers reported their most buoyant hiring plans
workforces in the three months ahead. Compared to this
since the surveys began in these countries.
time last year, Net Employment Outlooks have improved
in six of the 12 countries surveyed. In comparison to the
second quarter, hiring activity is expected to improve in
five countries but weaken in six.

Austria Belgium
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

France Germany
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Ireland Italy
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

Netherlands Norway
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

Spain Sweden
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

Switzerland UK
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005.


No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

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About the Survey Survey Question
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked
quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment
decrease the number of employees in their workforces during at your location to change in the three months to the end of
the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than September 2006 as compared to the current quarter?”
40 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of
Net Employment Outlook
employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the
Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment
success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:
Outlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area
employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and
of focus.
subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to
Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the see a decrease in employment at their location in the next
most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment
world, asking employers to forecast employment over the Outlook.
next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on
retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Seasonal Adjustment
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for
all of its information from a single question. Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong
Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway,
Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative
Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United
sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it
States to provide additional insight into the survey data.
is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from
These adjustments make it possible to review the data without
Manpower’s customer base.
the employment fluctuations that normally occur at the same
Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than time each year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data
49,000 public and private employers across 25 countries and over time. Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments
territories to measure anticipated employment trends each to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical
quarter.This sample allows for analysis to be performed across data is compiled.
specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

Methodology
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted
using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest
standards in market research. The research team for the
25 countries and territories where the survey is currently
conducted includes Manpower’s Market Intelligence team;
the Organization Research and Analysis Division of Right
Management Consultants – an independent operating division
of Manpower Inc.; NOP World, Grupo IDM and DATUM
Research. The survey has been structured to be representative
of each national economy. The margin of error for all national,
regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.1%.

In the United States, the national survey is conducted by


Manpower’s North American Market Intelligence Team and
includes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews,
the margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.

19
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

History of the Survey About Manpower Inc.


1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. employment services industry; creating and delivering services
1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work.
the United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly The $16 billion company offers employers a range of services
Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts for the entire employment and business cycle including
the same forward-looking research format as the United permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee
States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe. assessment and selection; training; outplacement;
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook outsourcing and consulting. Manpower’s worldwide network
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. of 4,400 offices in 72 countries and territories enables the
Research methodology is updated to evolve with company to meet the needs of its 400,000 clients per year,
advancements in the field of market research. including small and medium size enterprises in all industry
sectors, as well as the world’s largest multinational corporations.
2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment
The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research
through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across
methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and
their total workforce, enabling clients to concentrate on their
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.
core business activities. Manpower Inc. operates under five
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total
Wells and Right Management. More information on Manpower
18 countries and territories worldwide: Australia,
Inc. is available at www.manpower.com.
Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong
Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,
Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom
and United States.
2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
About Manpower USA
In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
of HR services, in addition to providing administrative,
2005 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland and industrial and contact center personnel. Under the
Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Manpower Professional brand, the company places
Survey. contract professionals on assignment in areas such as
2006 Manpower operations in Costa Rica and Peru joined the information technology, scientific, finance, engineering and
survey program. Surveys in Australia, Austria, Belgium, telecommunications. More information about Manpower’s
France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, US operation can be found at www.us.manpower.com.
Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain and
Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the third quarter.

20
Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217, USA
Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com

© 2006, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

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