Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Manpower
Employment
Outlook Survey
United States
Contents
About Manpower 20
United States Employment Outlook
Nearly 16,000 interviews For the third quarter of 2006, 31% of U.S. employers
foresee an increase in hiring activity, and 6% anticipate
have been conducted with a decline in staff levels. Fifty-seven percent expect no
change in the hiring pace, while 6% are undecided
employers across the about their July – September hiring plans.
United States to measure According to the seasonally adjusted data, employers
anticipated employment foresee no change in the hiring pace for the third
quarter of 2006. The Net Employment Outlook for the
trends between July and United States is identical to employment projections
September 2006. All from second quarter and one year ago at this time.
In the U.S., employer confidence has remained relatively
participants were asked, unchanged for 10 consecutive quarters.
“How do you anticipate Please note that throughout this report, the figure used
total employment at your in all graphs is the ‘‘Net Employment Outlook’’. This
figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers
location to change in the anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting
from this the percentage of employers that expect to
three months to the end see a decrease in employment at their location in the
of September 2006 next quarter.
as compared to the
current quarter?”
Net Employment Seasonally
Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
3rd Quarter 2006 31 6 57 6 25 21
2nd Quarter 2006 30 6 58 6 24 21
1st Quarter 2006 23 10 61 6 13 20
4th Quarter 2005 29 8 57 6 21 20
3rd Quarter 2005 31 6 57 6 25 21
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
When seasonal variations are removed from the data, Mining employers report a more noticeable change in
some positive industry trends emerge. Employers in four hiring plans, with a marked decline in confidence over
sectors - Transportation/Public Utilities, Finance/ second quarter.
Insurance/Real Estate, Services and Public Administration
Compared to a year ago at this time, employers in Non-
– expect slightly improved employment prospects for
Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public
the third quarter versus second quarter. Employers in
Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade and Education express
the Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
similar hiring intentions. The projected hiring pace is
Wholesale/Retail Trade and Education industry sectors
trending slightly upward in Durable Goods
expect the hiring pace to remain about the same.
Manufacturing, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Services
Employer optimism about hiring is starting to fade in two and Public Administration. Mining and Construction
industry sectors. Construction employers are less likely employers expect a weaker hiring pace when
to add staff in the late summer months than they were in compared with a year ago.
the April to June period, although the change is minimal.
At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.
Among the four U.S. regions surveyed, the Northeast is report hiring plans that are in line with those issued for
the only area to report a measurable change in hiring the April to June period and last year at this time.
plans over last quarter and a year ago. Employers in
Overall, employers in the South and West are most
the Northeast expect that slightly more hiring activity is
optimistic about their staffing plans, while those in the
in store for the third quarter when compared to the
Midwest express the weakest hiring intentions.
second quarter and last year at this time. Employers in
the remaining regions – the Midwest, South and West –
2
Regional Comparisons Employers in half of the 10 industry sectors surveyed
report little change to their hiring plans in comparison to
Midwest +22 (18%) second quarter projections. This includes employers in
the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/
Among employers surveyed in the Midwest, 28% plan
Public Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/
to increase workforce levels, while 6% expect to cut
Insurance/Real Estate and Services industry sectors.
back on staff, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of
The employment picture is expected to brighten slightly
22%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, employers in the
for job seekers in the Durable Goods Manufacturing,
Midwest foresee a continuation of the steady hiring
Education and Public Administration industry sectors.
plans for the third quarter of 2006. Hiring projections
Construction employers are tightening the reigns and
are consistent with those reported for the April to June
predicting a slightly slower hiring pace. Job market
period and one year ago. The hiring pace in the
optimism among Mining employers plummeted, and
Midwest is expected to be slower than that of the other
much less hiring activity is expected during the late
three regions surveyed.
summer months.
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South
Dakota, Wisconsin.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, Vermont.
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South +27 (24%) In five of the 10 industry sectors surveyed, hiring plans
are similar to those reported in the second quarter,
Among employers surveyed in the South, 32% plan to including Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
add staff, while 5% foresee personnel reductions during Wholesale/Retail Trade, Education and Services. The
the July – September period. This creates a Net third quarter is expected to bring a slightly improved job
Employment Outlook of 27%. On a seasonally adjusted market for the Transportation/Public Utilities, Finance/
basis, the results suggest an employment picture that Insurance/Real Estate and Public Administration
is similar to the second quarter of 2006 and last year industry sectors. Construction employers are slightly
at this time. This healthy hiring pace is among the more cautious about hiring plans for the third quarter,
strongest of the four U.S. regions surveyed. and Mining employers expect considerably weaker
hiring activity compared with second quarter.
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,
Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah,
Washington, Wyoming.
6
Sector Comparisons
Job market optimism for the third quarter of 2006 is most
abundant among Construction employers, according to
seasonally adjusted survey results. Finance/Insurance Real
Estate, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Services,
Transportation/Public Utilities and Wholesale/Retail Trade
employers all report positive sentiments about their hiring
plans. Employer confidence is weaker in the Education,
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing and Mining industry
sectors. Public Administration employers are least
optimistic about hiring for the July – September period.
Construction 37
24
14
Education
17
23
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
23
25
Manufacturing – Durables
23
21
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
18
21
Mining 18
20
Public Administration 16
26
Services 23
21
Transportation & Public Utilities 20
28
Wholesale & Retail Trade 21
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
8
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
+23 (23)%
For the first time in a year, Finance/Insurance/Real
Estate employers have increased confidence in their
staffing plans. Seasonally adjusted survey results
indicate that third quarter 2006 hiring plans are slightly
more positive than those reported for last quarter, and
moderately improved from a year ago at this time.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
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Public Administration +20 (16)%
Public Administration employers foresee an up-tick in
the hiring pace for the third quarter of 2006. According
to seasonally adjusted survey results, the hiring
landscape is expected to improve slightly from second
quarter and a year ago at this time. Even so, Public
Administration employers still report the most
conservative hiring plans in comparison to the nine
other industry sectors analyzed.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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12
Global Employment Outlook
Over 49,000 employers have been interviewed across Austria are reporting the strongest levels of optimism
25 countries and territories to measure anticipated to date, while Chinese employers reported their least
employment trends* between July and September 2006. optimistic Outlook since the survey began in the country.
Employers in 23 of the 25 countries and territories On a regional basis, European employers in six countries
surveyed expect to add to their workforces in the third are more confident about hiring than they were at this
quarter of 2006. Hiring activity is expected to improve time last year. Employers in Asia are more reserved
in 11 of the 25 countries and territories compared to than three months ago with those in five of the eight
Quarter 3 2005, although employers in 14 countries countries surveyed intending to recruit fewer staff in the
say they will slow the pace of hiring compared to three third quarter. Across the Americas, employers in Costa
months ago. Employment prospects are most buoyant Rica were surveyed for the first time, reporting solid
in India, Hong Kong, Japan, Costa Rica, Taiwan and the hiring plans. Meanwhile, employment expectations in
United States, while employers are the least optimistic Canada, Mexico and the United States remain positive
in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. Notably, and stable.
employers in India, Hong Kong, Ireland, Belgium and * Comments in this section are based on seasonally adjusted data
where available.
Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change
Americas Quarter 3 2005 Quarter 2 2006 Quarter 3 2006 Q2 2006 to Q3 2006 Q3 2005 to Q3 2006
% % %
Canada 29 (19)1 29 (21)1 29 (19)1 0 (-2)1 0 (0)1
Costa Rica – – 24 – –
Mexico 18 (18)1 21 (20)1 19 (19)1 -2 (-1)1 1 (1)1
Peru - 31 16 -15 -
United States 25 (21)1 24 (21)1 25 (21)1 1 (0)1 0 (0)1
International Comparisons – marks the first time that the survey has been conducted
with employers across Costa Rica, and the results
Americas indicate healthy hiring activity in the upcoming quarter.
Over 22,000 interviews have been conducted across Employers in the United States are forecasting the same
Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and the United solid hiring pace seen over the past two years, while the
States to measure employment trends between July hiring expectations in Mexico continue to be favorable
and September 2006. The overall regional outlook and similar to last year at this time. Conversely, hiring
continues to be stable and positive with the major North activity is expected to slow considerably from three
American labor markets moving in unison. This quarter months ago in Peru.
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mexico Peru
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
USA
50
40
30
20
10
-10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006
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International Comparisons – Hong Kong are reporting their most buoyant Outlooks
since the survey began in this country and territory
Asia Pacific in Quarter 3 2003. On the other hand, employment
prospects in China, although positive, are the weakest
Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted across
in the region and the least optimistic since the survey
Asia Pacific to measure anticipated employment trends
was established there in Quarter 2 2005.
between July and September 2006.
Notably, employers in Singapore are reporting a Net
Employment prospects are positive across all countries
Employment Outlook that is considerably less optimistic
and territories surveyed in Asia Pacific, with employers
than three months ago, while New Zealand employers
in India expecting the most robust hiring activity – the
are reporting their weakest hiring plans to date.
most buoyant Net Employment Outlook reported
in India to date. Similarly, employers in Japan and
Australia China
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Singapore Taiwan
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
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International Comparisons – European employer hiring expectations are strongest in
Ireland, Norway and the UK. The least optimistic and
Europe only negative employment prospects were reported by
employers in Germany, while employers in Italy reported
Over 11,000 interviews have been conducted across 12
a Net Employment Outlook of zero. German employers
European countries to measure anticipated employment
continue to fluctuate between positive and negative Net
trends for the third quarter of 2006. By and large,
Employment Outlooks, reverting to a negative forecast
seasonally adjusted data shows hiring activity across
this quarter, which is weaker on both a quarter-over-
the countries surveyed in Europe remains optimistic,
quarter and year-over-year basis. Austrian, Belgian and
with the majority of employers expecting to add to their
Irish employers reported their most buoyant hiring plans
workforces in the three months ahead. Compared to this
since the surveys began in these countries.
time last year, Net Employment Outlooks have improved
in six of the 12 countries surveyed. In comparison to the
second quarter, hiring activity is expected to improve in
five countries but weaken in six.
Austria Belgium
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
France Germany
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
Ireland Italy
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Netherlands Norway
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Spain Sweden
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Switzerland UK
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
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About the Survey Survey Question
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked
quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment
decrease the number of employees in their workforces during at your location to change in the three months to the end of
the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than September 2006 as compared to the current quarter?”
40 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of
Net Employment Outlook
employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the
Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment
success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:
Outlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area
employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and
of focus.
subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to
Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the see a decrease in employment at their location in the next
most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment
world, asking employers to forecast employment over the Outlook.
next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on
retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Seasonal Adjustment
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for
all of its information from a single question. Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong
Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway,
Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative
Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United
sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it
States to provide additional insight into the survey data.
is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from
These adjustments make it possible to review the data without
Manpower’s customer base.
the employment fluctuations that normally occur at the same
Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than time each year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data
49,000 public and private employers across 25 countries and over time. Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments
territories to measure anticipated employment trends each to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical
quarter.This sample allows for analysis to be performed across data is compiled.
specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.
Methodology
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted
using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest
standards in market research. The research team for the
25 countries and territories where the survey is currently
conducted includes Manpower’s Market Intelligence team;
the Organization Research and Analysis Division of Right
Management Consultants – an independent operating division
of Manpower Inc.; NOP World, Grupo IDM and DATUM
Research. The survey has been structured to be representative
of each national economy. The margin of error for all national,
regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.1%.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217, USA
Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com