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Q4 2006

Manpower
Employment
Outlook Survey
United States

A Manpower Research Report


Q4/06
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Contents

United States Employment Outlook 1


Regional Comparisons
Sector Comparisons

Global Employment Outlook 13


International Comparisons – Americas
International Comparisons – Asia Pacific
International Comparisons – EMEA

About the Survey 20

About Manpower 21
United States Employment Outlook
Nearly 14,000 interviews Among the U.S. employers surveyed, 28% foresee an
increase in hiring activity, and 8% expect a decline in
have been conducted with staff levels during the fourth quarter of 2006. Fifty-eight
percent anticipate no change in the hiring pace, while
employers across the 6% are undecided about their October – December
United States to measure hiring plans.

anticipated employment When seasonal variations are removed from the data,
the results suggest that employers plan to stay the
trends between October course when it comes to hiring. The fourth quarter Net
and December 2006. All Employment Outlook for the United States is similar to
the projections reported for the last 10 quarters. Thus,
participants were asked, employer confidence about hiring is about the same as

“How do you anticipate it was during the July to September period and one
year ago.
total employment at your Please note that throughout this report, the figure used
location to change in the in all graphs is the ‘‘Net Employment Outlook’’. This
figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers
three months to the end anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting
of December 2006 as from this the percentage of employers that expect to
see a decrease in employment at their location in the
compared to the current next quarter.
quarter?”
Net Employment Seasonally
Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
4th Quarter 2006 28 8 58 6 20 20
3rd Quarter 2006 31 6 57 6 25 21
2nd Quarter 2006 30 6 58 6 24 21
1st Quarter 2006 23 10 61 6 13 20
4th Quarter 2005 29 8 57 6 21 20

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.

1
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Hiring activity in seven of the 10 industry sectors Compared to a year ago at this time, the majority of
surveyed is expected to remain relatively consistent with employers report similar hiring expectations including
third quarter projections, according to seasonally those in Durable and Non-Durable Goods
adjusted data. Those sectors include Construction, Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,
Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate,
Transportation/Public Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Services and Public Administration. Employers are
Services and Public Administration. slightly less optimistic about year-end hiring in the
Mining, Construction and Education sectors.
Employment prospects are expected to improve in the
Mining sector, with employers regaining confidence
after a considerable dip in the third quarter. The hiring
pace is expected to edge down from three months ago,
albeit slightly in both the Finance/Insurance/Real Estate
and Education sectors.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Construction 27 13 55 5 14 24
Education 25 7 63 5 18 13
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 23 6 64 7 17 18
Manufacturing ñ Durables 29 9 57 5 20 23
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 26 9 61 4 17 19
Mining 31 8 59 2 23 23
Public Administration 19 11 64 6 8 15
Services 26 7 61 6 19 23
Transportation & Public Utilities 27 6 60 7 21 19
Wholesale & Retail Trade 37 7 50 6 30 21

At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.

The hiring outlook for the four U.S. regions is similar to Those looking for work are likely to find the strongest
what employers reported in the third quarter and for the job prospects in the West. Employers in the Midwest
final months of 2005 in the Midwest, South and West. report the weakest hiring plans for the October to
Employers in the Northeast are not as optimistic as they December timeframe.
were during the previous quarter and one year ago.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Midwest 26 9 60 5 17 17
Northeast 28 9 58 5 19 18
South 30 7 57 6 23 23
West 31 9 53 7 22 24

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Regional Comparisons Employers in half of the 10 industry sectors surveyed in
the Midwest predict more of the same steady hiring that
Midwest +17 (17%) was expected in the third quarter. Those sectors
include Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail
Twenty-six percent of employers surveyed in the
Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Services and
Midwest expect to increase employment levels, and 9%
Public Administration. Non-Durable Goods
anticipate a decrease in headcount, which leads to a
Manufacturers expect a slight uptick in the hiring pace.
Net Employment Outlook of +17%. When seasonal
A more noticeable gain is likely in the Construction and
variations are removed from the data, the fourth quarter
Transportation/Public Utilities sectors, and Mining
employment forecast for the Midwest reveals continued
employers foresee a much improved employment
consistency. The hiring pace has remained relatively
picture for the fourth quarter. Education is the only
unchanged since the second quarter of 2004. For the third
industry sector to report a less optimistic hiring forecast
consecutive quarter, employers in the Midwest reported
for the coming quarter.
the weakest hiring sentiment among the four regions.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 26 9 60 5 17 17
Construction 21 17 58 4 4 19
Education 17 8 71 4 9 3
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 21 6 67 6 15 16
Manufacturing – Durables 26 10 60 4 16 20
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 26 7 63 4 19 20
Mining 0 0 100 0 0 6
Public Administration 14 16 66 4 -2 10
Services 22 8 64 6 14 18
Transportation & Public Utilities 26 6 61 7 20 20
Wholesale & Retail Trade 35 8 53 4 27 19

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South
Dakota, Wisconsin.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Northeast +19 (18%) A quarter-over-quarter comparison of the Northeast


industry sectors reveals a range of hiring plans.
Among employers surveyed in the Northeast, 28% Wholesale/Retail Trade and Services employers are
foresee an increase in employment activity and 9% slightly more positive about job prospects for the fourth
expect a decline in payrolls for the final months of 2006. quarter. Durable Goods Manufacturers are holding
The result is a Net Employment Outlook of +19%. steady, with hiring plans identical to those issued
Seasonally adjusted results suggest a slight decline in for the third quarter. Less hiring is expected by
the hiring pace compared with third quarter and one employers in Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing and
year ago. Transportation/Public Utilities, while the jobs picture is
taking a turn for the worse in Construction, Education,
Mining, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Public
Administration.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 28 9 58 5 19 18
Construction 20 16 60 4 4 10
Education 27 9 59 5 18 14
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 19 7 69 5 12 13
Manufacturing – Durables 30 8 57 5 22 22
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 25 12 59 4 13 14
Mining 33 0 67 0 33 19
Public Administration 11 12 70 7 -1 2
Services 26 8 62 4 18 22
Transportation & Public Utilities 27 8 59 6 19 16
Wholesale & Retail Trade 40 7 47 6 33 23

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, Vermont.

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South +23 (23%) Compared with the third quarter, positive employment
patterns emerge in the Construction and Mining
In the South, 30% of employers intend to increase the sectors. Employers in Durable and Non-Durable Goods
hiring pace, while 7% expect to decrease staff levels, Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities, Services
which leads to a Net Employment Outlook of +23%. and Public Administration foresee little change in the
Seasonally adjusted data indicates continued job hiring pace. Wholesale/Retail Trade, Education and
market stability, with employer confidence holding Finance/Insurance/Real Estate employers anticipate
steady for 11 consecutive quarters. a slower hiring pace for the fourth quarter.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 30 7 57 6 23 23
Construction 33 10 52 5 23 30
Education 30 5 60 5 25 19
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 22 5 63 10 17 19
Manufacturing – Durables 31 8 56 5 23 25
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 25 8 62 5 17 19
Mining 30 9 61 0 21 22
Public Administration 23 7 64 6 16 19
Services 29 6 57 8 23 26
Transportation & Public Utilities 24 4 66 6 20 19
Wholesale & Retail Trade 38 6 50 6 32 22

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,
Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

West +22 (24%) Employers in Transportation/Public Utilities,


Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Mining and Education
Thirty-one percent of employers surveyed in the West are more confident about hiring plans for the October to
plan to add staff, while 9% expect to reduce December period when compared with the third quarter.
employment levels. The result is a Net Employment Little change in hiring is in store for the Wholesale/Retail
Outlook of +22%. When seasonal variations are Trade and Services sectors. Employers in Durable and
removed from the data, the West emerges as the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Construction and
region with the strongest fourth quarter job prospects. Public Administration revealed less optimistic staffing
Hiring plans are similar to those reported for third plans for the coming quarter.
quarter and a year ago.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 31 9 53 7 22 24
Construction 29 12 52 7 17 27
Education 31 6 57 6 25 22
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 33 9 51 7 24 27
Manufacturing – Durables 32 10 51 7 22 26
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 30 11 54 5 19 21
Mining 36 7 50 7 29 31
Public Administration 27 9 56 8 18 22
Services 29 9 56 6 20 24
Transportation & Public Utilities 36 6 49 9 30 28
Wholesale & Retail Trade 35 9 47 9 26 22

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah,
Washington, Wyoming.

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Sector Comparisons
According to seasonally adjusted data, employers in
Construction, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Services,
Wholesale/Retail Trade and Mining express the most
promising hiring plans for the final three months of
2006. Solid job prospects are anticipated in the
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturing and Transportation/Public Utilities
sectors. The job climate in Education and Public
Administration is once again more conservative than
in the other industry sectors.

Construction 14
24
18
Education
13
17
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
18
20
Manufacturing – Durables
23
17
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
19
23
Mining 23
8
Public Administration 15
19
Services 23
21
Transportation & Public Utilities 19
30
Wholesale & Retail Trade 21

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Construction +14 (24)%


Although optimism among Construction employers has
gradually edged down during 2006, the hiring pace
remains quite strong when compared to historical survey
data, and it is the most promising of the 10 sectors
analyzed for the fourth quarter. According to seasonally
adjusted data, the hiring pace is expected to continue
at the same rate as in the third quarter. Job prospects
are weaker than they were last year at this time.

During the October to December period, employers in


the South are most confident about staffing up, while
those in the Northeast are the most reserved about hiring.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Education +18 (13)%


According to seasonally adjusted survey results, the
hiring pace in the Education sector is expected to wane
slightly during the final three months of the year, with
Education employers reporting the weakest hiring
intentions among the 10 industry sectors surveyed.
Hiring plans for the fourth quarter are more
conservative than those reported for the third quarter
and one year ago.

Among Education employers, hiring plans are most


promising in the West, while a considerably slower
hiring pace is expected in the Midwest.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

8
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
+17 (18)%
Seasonally adjusted survey results reveal that
confidence among Finance/Insurance/Real Estate
employers is taking a modest dip in the last quarter
of 2006. Employers are toning down hiring plans
compared with the third quarter, but are keeping them
similar to a year ago.

Job prospects are most promising in the West, while


a more lethargic pace is expected in the Northeast.

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15

10

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Manufacturing – Durable Goods


+20 (23)%
When seasonal variations are removed from the data,
Durable Goods Manufacturers report a 10th consecutive
quarter of steady hiring. Employer confidence levels are
consistent with those reported in the third quarter and
a year ago.

For the fourth quarter, hiring is expected to be most


active in the West, while more moderate hiring is
anticipated in the Midwest.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

9
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods


+17 (19)%
The fourth quarter brings continued stability for the
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing sector, according to
seasonally adjusted survey data. Employers anticipate
little change in the hiring pace over third quarter and a
year ago.

Employers in the West are most confident about


adding staff, while those in the Northeast anticipate
slower hiring than in the other three regions.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Mining +23 (23)%


Mining employers foresee a healthy hiring pace for the
fourth quarter of 2006, according to seasonally
adjusted data. A moderately improved hiring pace is
expected from three months ago, however, hiring plans
are weaker than those reported last year at this time.

For the October – December period, hiring intentions


are strongest in the West, while employers in the
Midwest are least optimistic about adding staff.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

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Public Administration +8 (15)%
Public Administration employers expect the hiring
momentum to remain steady as they close out 2006,
according to seasonally adjusted data. Hiring expectations
are similar to those in the third quarter and last year.

In the Public Administration sector, hiring is expected to


be most active in the West, while a more dismal jobs
picture is predicted for the Northeast.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Services +19 (23)%


For the fourth quarter, seasonally adjusted hiring plans
in the Services sector are relatively consistent with
those reported for the July to September period and a
year ago. Employer optimism for the fourth quarter is
identical to levels identified in the third quarter and in
the last three months of 2005.

Job seekers are likely to find the strongest hiring


market in the South, and a weaker atmosphere in the
Midwest.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Transportation & Public Utilities


+21 (19)%
Transportation/Public Utilities employers anticipate
continued job market stability for the fourth quarter of
2006, according to seasonally adjusted survey data.
The hiring pace is expected to be about the same as it
was during the third quarter and last year.

Among the regions, employers in the West reveal the


strongest hiring intentions, while those in the Northeast
are less inclined to add staff.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Wholesale & Retail Trade +30 (21)%


Wholesale/Retail Trade employers remain upbeat about
hiring as they finish out 2006, according to the
seasonally adjusted survey results. Employers foresee
little change in the hiring pace over third quarter and
one year ago.

Job market prosperity in the Wholesale/Retail Trade


sector is positive in all four of the U.S. regions, but
employers in the Northeast are most optimistic. Those
in the Midwest lag slightly behind.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

12
Global Employment Outlook
Over 49,000 employers have been interviewed across On a regional basis, employers in the Americas continue
26 countries and territories to measure anticipated to report strong, stable Net Employment Outlooks.
employment trends* between October and Employers in Asia Pacific are among the most positive
December 2006. globally, and data shows most intend to increase
headcounts compared to the third quarter and Quarter 4
Employers in all of the 26 countries and territories
2005. In the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region,
Manpower surveyed expect to add to their workforces
employers in all 13 countries surveyed are reporting
in Quarter 4 2006, with those in 18 of the countries and
positive hiring activity for the quarter ahead, with those
territories reporting stronger hiring expectations compared
in Germany and Italy indicating notably improved job
to last year at this time. Hiring activity is also expected
prospects. Employers in South Africa were surveyed
to improve in 15 countries and territories compared to
for the first time, reporting the strongest fourth-quarter
three months ago. The strongest activity is anticipated
hiring expectations in the region.
in Peru, India, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia,
* Comments in this section are based on seasonally adjusted data
New Zealand and South Africa, while the weakest hiring where available.
activity is forecast in France, Italy, the Netherlands and
Spain. Notably, employers in Costa Rica, Peru, Australia,
Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Austria, Germany and
Italy are reporting their most optimistic Net Employment
Outlooks since the survey began in these countries
and territories.

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change


Americas Quarter 4 2005 Quarter 3 2006 Quarter 4 2006 Q3 2006 to Q4 2006 Q4 2005 to Q4 2006
% % %
1
Canada 16 (20) 1
29 (19) 18 (21)1 -11 (2)1 2 (1)1
Costa Rica – 24 25 1 –
Mexico 19 (18)1 19 (19)1 20 (20)1 1 (1)1 1 (2)1
Peru – 16 48 32 –
United States 21 (21)1 25 (21)1 20 (20)1 -5 (-1)1 -1 (-1)1

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change


Asia Pacific Quarter 4 2005 Quarter 3 2006 Quarter 4 2006 Q3 2006 to Q4 2006 Q4 2005 to Q4 2006
% % %
Australia 18 (19)1 15 (15)1 27 (29)1 12 (14)1 9 (10)1
China 9 6 24 18 15
Hong Kong 13 (14)1 30 (27)1 29 (31)1 -1 (4)1 16 (17)1
India 40 43 42 -1 2
Japan 14 (20)1 19 (24)1 17 (24)1 -2 (0)1 3 (4)1
New Zealand 22 19 26 7 4
Singapore 18 (15)1 14 (11)1 36 (31)1 22 (20)1 18 (16)1
Taiwan 16 23 14 -9 -2

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change


EMEA* Quarter 4 2005 Quarter 3 2006 Quarter 4 2006 Q3 2006 to Q4 2006 Q4 2005 to Q4 2006
% % %
Austria 0 (0)1 14 (12)1 11 (13)1 -3 (1)1 11 (13)1
Belgium 8 (8)1 13 (12) 1
9 (9) 1
-4 (-3) 1
1 (1)1
France 5 (3)1 4 (4)1
4 (2) 1
0 (-2)1
-1 (-1)1
1 1 1 1
Germany -2 (-2) 1 (-2) 5 (8) 4 (10) 7 (10)1
1 1 1 1
Ireland 14 (15) 22 (19) 15 (16) -7 (-3) 1 (1)1
Italy -1 (1)1 2 (0)1 2 (5)1 0 (5)1 3 (4)1
Netherlands 5 (3)1 4 (2)1 9 (6)1 5 (4)1 4 (3)1
1 1 1 1
Norway 12 (14) 16 (14) 12 (14) -4 (0) 0 (0)1
South Africa – – 26 – –
Spain 10 (12)1 16 (12)1 4 (6)1 -12 (-6)1 -6 (-6)1
Sweden 3 (6)1 11 (7)1 7 (11)1 -4 (4)1 4 (5)1
Switzerland 3 5 8 3 5
UK 8 (6)1 13 (12)1 11 (9)1 -2 (-3)1 3 (3)1
*EMEA – Europe, Middle East and Africa.
1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove seasonal variations.

Survey Respondents by Region


Research for the fourth quarter 2006 Manpower
Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying over
49,000 human resources directors and senior hiring
managers from public and private organizations
worldwide. 44% of respondents came from five
countries in the Americas; 31% from eight countries
Asia Pacific and territories across Asia Pacific, and 25% from
Americas 31%
13 countries in EMEA.
44%

EMEA
25%

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International Comparisons – The Net Employment Outlook for Peru is considerably
improved in comparison to the third quarter and is the
Americas most optimistic Outlook reported globally, while the
Outlooks reported by employers in the United States,
Over 21,000 interviews have been conducted across
Mexico and Canada are comparable to both three
Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and the United States
months ago and last year at this time. Canadian
to measure employment prospects for Quarter 4 2006.
employers are forecasting their most optimistic hiring
The data shows continued strength and stability in the
plans in six years.
region with employers in all five countries indicating
healthy hiring plans for the final three months of the year.

Canada Costa Rica


50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 2006.

Mexico Peru
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

Peru joined the survey in Q2 2006.

USA
50

40

30

20

10

-10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006

15
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

International Comparisons – eight countries and territories, with the exception being
Taiwan, where the Outlook remains positive, but is the
Asia Pacific weakest result since the survey began there in Quarter 2
2005. Meanwhile, employers in Australia, Hong Kong,
Over 15,000 interviews have been conducted across
Japan and Singapore are reporting their most optimistic
the Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiring
Net Employment Outlooks since the survey began in
activity between October and December 2006.
these countries and territories in 2003.
Employers in the Asia Pacific region remain positive
Notably, employers in China, Australia and Singapore
about adding employees across all countries and
expect to increase the pace of hiring considerably in
territories surveyed, with those in India, Singapore and
comparison to both three months ago and this time
Hong Kong anticipating the most robust fourth-quarter
last year.
hiring activity. Compared to this time last year, Net
Employment Outlooks have improved in seven of the

Australia China
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

China joined the survey in Q2 2005.

Hong Kong India


50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

India joined the survey in Q3 2005.

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Japan New Zealand
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004.

Singapore Taiwan
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

International Comparisons – have improved quarter-over-quarter in six countries,


however they have weakened in five.
EMEA South African employers, who join the survey for the
Over 12,000 interviews have been conducted with first time this quarter, report the strongest Outlook for
employers across 13 EMEA countries to measure the region, along with those in Ireland, Norway and
anticipated employment trends for Quarter 4 2006. Austria. Notably, employers in Germany and Italy report
improved, positive hiring intentions, and join employers in
Employers in the EMEA region are anticipating varying
Austria in predicting their strongest hiring plans since the
degrees of positive hiring activity for the next three
survey began in these countries in 2003. The weakest
months, but all intend to add to their existing workforces.
hiring activity in the region and globally is anticipated in
Compared to Quarter 4 2005, the employment picture
France, where employers expect only a slight increase
has improved in nine countries and weakened in just
to their workforces over the next three months.
two – Spain and France. Employer hiring expectations

Austria Belgium
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

France Germany
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

Ireland Italy
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

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Netherlands Norway
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

South Africa Spain


50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

South Africa joined the survey in Q4 2006.

Sweden Switzerland
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006

Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005.


No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.
UK
50

40

30

20

10

-10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006

19
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

About the Survey Survey Question


The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked
quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment
decrease the number of employees in their workforces during at your location to change in the three months to the end of
the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than December 2006 as compared to the current quarter?”
40 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of
Net Employment Outlook
employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the
Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment
success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:
Outlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area
employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and
of focus.
subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to
Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the see a decrease in employment at their location in the next
most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment
world, asking employers to forecast employment over the Outlook.
next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on
retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Seasonal Adjustment
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for
all of its information from a single question. Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong
Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway,
Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative
Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United
sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it
States to provide additional insight into the survey data.
is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from
These adjustments make it possible to review the data without
Manpower’s customer base.
the employment fluctuations that normally occur at the same
Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than time each year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data
49,000 public and private employers across 26 countries and over time. Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments
territories to measure anticipated employment trends each to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical
quarter.This sample allows for analysis to be performed across data is compiled.
specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

Methodology
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted
using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest
standards in market research. The research team for the
26 countries and territories where the survey is currently
conducted includes Manpower’s Market Intelligence team;
the Organization Research and Analysis Division of Right
Management Consultants – an independent operating division
of Manpower Inc.; NOP World, Grupo IDM and DATUM
Research. The survey has been structured to be representative
of each national economy. The margin of error for all national,
regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.3%.

In the United States, the national survey is conducted by


Manpower’s North American Market Intelligence Team and
includes 14,000 employers. With this number of interviews,
the margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.

20
History of the Survey About Manpower Inc.
1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. employment services industry; creating and delivering services
1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work.
the United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly The $16 billion company offers employers a range of services
Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts for the entire employment and business cycle including
the same forward-looking research format as the United permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee
States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe. assessment and selection; training; outplacement;
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook outsourcing and consulting. Manpower’s worldwide network
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. of 4,400 offices in 72 countries and territories enables the
Research methodology is updated to evolve with company to meet the needs of its 400,000 clients per year,
advancements in the field of market research. including small and medium size enterprises in all industry
sectors, as well as the world’s largest multinational corporations.
2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment
The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research
through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across
methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and
their total workforce, enabling clients to concentrate on their
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.
core business activities. Manpower Inc. operates under five
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total
Wells and Right Management. More information on Manpower
18 countries and territories worldwide: Australia,
Inc. is available at www.manpower.com.
Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong
Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,
Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom
and United States.
2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
About Manpower USA
In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
of HR services, in addition to providing administrative,
2005 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland and industrial and contact center personnel. Under the
Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Manpower Professional brand, the company places
Survey. contract professionals on assignment in areas such as
2006 Manpower operations in Costa Rica, Peru and South information technology, scientific, finance, engineering and
Africa joined the survey program. Surveys in Australia, telecommunications. More information about Manpower’s
Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, US operation can be found at www.us.manpower.com.
Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,
Spain and Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the
third quarter.
Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217, USA
Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com

© 2006, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

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