Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Manpower
Employment
Outlook Survey
United States
Contents
About Manpower 21
United States Employment Outlook
Nearly 14,000 interviews Among the U.S. employers surveyed, 28% foresee an
increase in hiring activity, and 8% expect a decline in
have been conducted with staff levels during the fourth quarter of 2006. Fifty-eight
percent anticipate no change in the hiring pace, while
employers across the 6% are undecided about their October – December
United States to measure hiring plans.
anticipated employment When seasonal variations are removed from the data,
the results suggest that employers plan to stay the
trends between October course when it comes to hiring. The fourth quarter Net
and December 2006. All Employment Outlook for the United States is similar to
the projections reported for the last 10 quarters. Thus,
participants were asked, employer confidence about hiring is about the same as
“How do you anticipate it was during the July to September period and one
year ago.
total employment at your Please note that throughout this report, the figure used
location to change in the in all graphs is the ‘‘Net Employment Outlook’’. This
figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers
three months to the end anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting
of December 2006 as from this the percentage of employers that expect to
see a decrease in employment at their location in the
compared to the current next quarter.
quarter?”
Net Employment Seasonally
Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
4th Quarter 2006 28 8 58 6 20 20
3rd Quarter 2006 31 6 57 6 25 21
2nd Quarter 2006 30 6 58 6 24 21
1st Quarter 2006 23 10 61 6 13 20
4th Quarter 2005 29 8 57 6 21 20
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.
1
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
Hiring activity in seven of the 10 industry sectors Compared to a year ago at this time, the majority of
surveyed is expected to remain relatively consistent with employers report similar hiring expectations including
third quarter projections, according to seasonally those in Durable and Non-Durable Goods
adjusted data. Those sectors include Construction, Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,
Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate,
Transportation/Public Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Services and Public Administration. Employers are
Services and Public Administration. slightly less optimistic about year-end hiring in the
Mining, Construction and Education sectors.
Employment prospects are expected to improve in the
Mining sector, with employers regaining confidence
after a considerable dip in the third quarter. The hiring
pace is expected to edge down from three months ago,
albeit slightly in both the Finance/Insurance/Real Estate
and Education sectors.
At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.
The hiring outlook for the four U.S. regions is similar to Those looking for work are likely to find the strongest
what employers reported in the third quarter and for the job prospects in the West. Employers in the Midwest
final months of 2005 in the Midwest, South and West. report the weakest hiring plans for the October to
Employers in the Northeast are not as optimistic as they December timeframe.
were during the previous quarter and one year ago.
2
Regional Comparisons Employers in half of the 10 industry sectors surveyed in
the Midwest predict more of the same steady hiring that
Midwest +17 (17%) was expected in the third quarter. Those sectors
include Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail
Twenty-six percent of employers surveyed in the
Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Services and
Midwest expect to increase employment levels, and 9%
Public Administration. Non-Durable Goods
anticipate a decrease in headcount, which leads to a
Manufacturers expect a slight uptick in the hiring pace.
Net Employment Outlook of +17%. When seasonal
A more noticeable gain is likely in the Construction and
variations are removed from the data, the fourth quarter
Transportation/Public Utilities sectors, and Mining
employment forecast for the Midwest reveals continued
employers foresee a much improved employment
consistency. The hiring pace has remained relatively
picture for the fourth quarter. Education is the only
unchanged since the second quarter of 2004. For the third
industry sector to report a less optimistic hiring forecast
consecutive quarter, employers in the Midwest reported
for the coming quarter.
the weakest hiring sentiment among the four regions.
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South
Dakota, Wisconsin.
3
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, Vermont.
4
South +23 (23%) Compared with the third quarter, positive employment
patterns emerge in the Construction and Mining
In the South, 30% of employers intend to increase the sectors. Employers in Durable and Non-Durable Goods
hiring pace, while 7% expect to decrease staff levels, Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities, Services
which leads to a Net Employment Outlook of +23%. and Public Administration foresee little change in the
Seasonally adjusted data indicates continued job hiring pace. Wholesale/Retail Trade, Education and
market stability, with employer confidence holding Finance/Insurance/Real Estate employers anticipate
steady for 11 consecutive quarters. a slower hiring pace for the fourth quarter.
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,
Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah,
Washington, Wyoming.
6
Sector Comparisons
According to seasonally adjusted data, employers in
Construction, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Services,
Wholesale/Retail Trade and Mining express the most
promising hiring plans for the final three months of
2006. Solid job prospects are anticipated in the
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturing and Transportation/Public Utilities
sectors. The job climate in Education and Public
Administration is once again more conservative than
in the other industry sectors.
Construction 14
24
18
Education
13
17
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
18
20
Manufacturing – Durables
23
17
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
19
23
Mining 23
8
Public Administration 15
19
Services 23
21
Transportation & Public Utilities 19
30
Wholesale & Retail Trade 21
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
7
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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-20
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
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-5
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
8
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
+17 (18)%
Seasonally adjusted survey results reveal that
confidence among Finance/Insurance/Real Estate
employers is taking a modest dip in the last quarter
of 2006. Employers are toning down hiring plans
compared with the third quarter, but are keeping them
similar to a year ago.
25
20
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10
0
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
9
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
10
Public Administration +8 (15)%
Public Administration employers expect the hiring
momentum to remain steady as they close out 2006,
according to seasonally adjusted data. Hiring expectations
are similar to those in the third quarter and last year.
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
11
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
12
Global Employment Outlook
Over 49,000 employers have been interviewed across On a regional basis, employers in the Americas continue
26 countries and territories to measure anticipated to report strong, stable Net Employment Outlooks.
employment trends* between October and Employers in Asia Pacific are among the most positive
December 2006. globally, and data shows most intend to increase
headcounts compared to the third quarter and Quarter 4
Employers in all of the 26 countries and territories
2005. In the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region,
Manpower surveyed expect to add to their workforces
employers in all 13 countries surveyed are reporting
in Quarter 4 2006, with those in 18 of the countries and
positive hiring activity for the quarter ahead, with those
territories reporting stronger hiring expectations compared
in Germany and Italy indicating notably improved job
to last year at this time. Hiring activity is also expected
prospects. Employers in South Africa were surveyed
to improve in 15 countries and territories compared to
for the first time, reporting the strongest fourth-quarter
three months ago. The strongest activity is anticipated
hiring expectations in the region.
in Peru, India, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia,
* Comments in this section are based on seasonally adjusted data
New Zealand and South Africa, while the weakest hiring where available.
activity is forecast in France, Italy, the Netherlands and
Spain. Notably, employers in Costa Rica, Peru, Australia,
Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Austria, Germany and
Italy are reporting their most optimistic Net Employment
Outlooks since the survey began in these countries
and territories.
13
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
EMEA
25%
14
International Comparisons – The Net Employment Outlook for Peru is considerably
improved in comparison to the third quarter and is the
Americas most optimistic Outlook reported globally, while the
Outlooks reported by employers in the United States,
Over 21,000 interviews have been conducted across
Mexico and Canada are comparable to both three
Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and the United States
months ago and last year at this time. Canadian
to measure employment prospects for Quarter 4 2006.
employers are forecasting their most optimistic hiring
The data shows continued strength and stability in the
plans in six years.
region with employers in all five countries indicating
healthy hiring plans for the final three months of the year.
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mexico Peru
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
USA
50
40
30
20
10
-10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006
15
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
International Comparisons – eight countries and territories, with the exception being
Taiwan, where the Outlook remains positive, but is the
Asia Pacific weakest result since the survey began there in Quarter 2
2005. Meanwhile, employers in Australia, Hong Kong,
Over 15,000 interviews have been conducted across
Japan and Singapore are reporting their most optimistic
the Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiring
Net Employment Outlooks since the survey began in
activity between October and December 2006.
these countries and territories in 2003.
Employers in the Asia Pacific region remain positive
Notably, employers in China, Australia and Singapore
about adding employees across all countries and
expect to increase the pace of hiring considerably in
territories surveyed, with those in India, Singapore and
comparison to both three months ago and this time
Hong Kong anticipating the most robust fourth-quarter
last year.
hiring activity. Compared to this time last year, Net
Employment Outlooks have improved in seven of the
Australia China
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
16
Japan New Zealand
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Singapore Taiwan
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
17
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
Austria Belgium
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
France Germany
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Ireland Italy
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
18
Netherlands Norway
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Sweden Switzerland
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
40
30
20
10
-10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
Methodology
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted
using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest
standards in market research. The research team for the
26 countries and territories where the survey is currently
conducted includes Manpower’s Market Intelligence team;
the Organization Research and Analysis Division of Right
Management Consultants – an independent operating division
of Manpower Inc.; NOP World, Grupo IDM and DATUM
Research. The survey has been structured to be representative
of each national economy. The margin of error for all national,
regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.3%.
20
History of the Survey About Manpower Inc.
1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. employment services industry; creating and delivering services
1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work.
the United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly The $16 billion company offers employers a range of services
Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts for the entire employment and business cycle including
the same forward-looking research format as the United permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee
States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe. assessment and selection; training; outplacement;
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook outsourcing and consulting. Manpower’s worldwide network
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. of 4,400 offices in 72 countries and territories enables the
Research methodology is updated to evolve with company to meet the needs of its 400,000 clients per year,
advancements in the field of market research. including small and medium size enterprises in all industry
sectors, as well as the world’s largest multinational corporations.
2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment
The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research
through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across
methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and
their total workforce, enabling clients to concentrate on their
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.
core business activities. Manpower Inc. operates under five
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total
Wells and Right Management. More information on Manpower
18 countries and territories worldwide: Australia,
Inc. is available at www.manpower.com.
Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong
Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,
Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom
and United States.
2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
About Manpower USA
In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
of HR services, in addition to providing administrative,
2005 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland and industrial and contact center personnel. Under the
Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Manpower Professional brand, the company places
Survey. contract professionals on assignment in areas such as
2006 Manpower operations in Costa Rica, Peru and South information technology, scientific, finance, engineering and
Africa joined the survey program. Surveys in Australia, telecommunications. More information about Manpower’s
Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, US operation can be found at www.us.manpower.com.
Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,
Spain and Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the
third quarter.
Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217, USA
Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com