Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Manpower
Employment
Outlook Survey
United States
Contents
About Manpower 23
United States Employment Outlook
More than 14,000 interviews Among U.S. employers surveyed, 26% foresee an
increase in hiring activity, and 9% expect a decline
have been conducted with in staff levels during Quarter 2 2008. Sixty percent
anticipate no change in the hiring pace, while 5%
employers across the are undecided about their April – June hiring plans.
United States to measure When seasonal variations are removed from the data,
anticipated employment the results show that employers expect the rate of
hiring to decline when compared to Quarter 1 2008
trends between April and one year ago at this time.
and June 2008. Please note that throughout this report, the figure
All participants were asked, used in all graphs is the ‘‘Net Employment Outlook.’’
This figure is derived by taking the percentage of
“How do you anticipate employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity
total employment at your and subtracting from this the percentage of employers
that expect to see a decrease in employment at their
location to change in the location in the next quarter.
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.
1
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
Compared to three months ago, employers in six of the A quarter-over-quarter comparison shows the weakest
10 industry sectors surveyed anticipate weaker hiring employment prospects since Quarter 1 2004.
plans, while those in the remaining four sectors are According to seasonally adjusted survey results,
forecasting relatively stable or improved hiring activity, employers in nine of the 10 industry sectors expect
according to seasonally adjusted survey results. the hiring pace to remain stable or decline during
For Quarter 2 2008, Mining, Construction, Durable and Quarter 2 2008. Of the 10 industry sectors surveyed,
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail only Transportation/Public Utilities employers anticipate
Trade and Public Administration employers foresee a improved conditions for job seekers in the coming
decrease in hiring pace. Hiring is expected to remain quarter versus Quarter 1 2008.
relatively stable in the Finance/Insurance/Real Estate,
Services and Education sectors, while Transportation/
Public Utilities employers are more positive about
employment prospects.
At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.
Compared to the January – March period, employers A look across the regions shows that employers in
in the West anticipate a considerable decrease in hiring the South anticipate the most favorable hiring prospects,
pace while Midwest employers anticipate a moderate while job seekers in the Midwest can expect the weakest
decrease. Employers in the Northeast and South are hiring conditions.
predicting hiring conditions similar to Quarter 1 2008.
2
Regional Comparisons Employers in seven of the 10 industry sectors surveyed
in the Midwest predict a decline in hiring compared to
Midwest +14 (10)% Quarter 1 2008. Construction, Mining, Durable and
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail
Twenty-three percent of employers surveyed in the
Trade, Education and Services employers foresee a
Midwest expect to increase their workforces, and 9%
downturn in hiring. Transportation/Public Utilities,
anticipate a decrease in hiring pace, leading to a Net
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Public
Employment Outlook of 14%. When seasonal variations
Administration employers anticipate a hiring pace similar
are removed from the data, the Quarter 2 2008
to the January – March plans.
employment forecast is moderately weaker than last
quarter. Among the regions surveyed, employers in
the Midwest report the weakest hiring pace for
Quarter 2 2008.
35
30
25
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5
0
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South
Dakota, Wisconsin.
3
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, Vermont.
4
South +19 (17)% Hiring intentions are relatively stable or slightly improving
when compared to Quarter 1 2008 in the Durable
In the South, 26% of employers surveyed anticipate Goods Manufacturing, Education, Services and Public
an increase in payrolls during the April – June period, Administration sectors. Employers are less optimistic
while 7% plan to reduce staff levels, resulting in a about their staffing plans for Quarter 2 2008 in the
Net Employment Outlook of 19%. When seasonal Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail
variations are removed from the data, the employment Trade, with a more noticeable decline in the Mining and
picture is stable versus Quarter 1 2008. Employers in Construction sectors. A slight increase in hiring activity
the South are forecasting the most favorable hiring is anticipated in the Transportation/Public Utilities and
prospects of the regions. Despite positive projections Finance/Insurance/Real Estate industry sectors
on the part of employers, this is the weakest anticipated compared to January - March.
hiring pace for the South since Quarter 1 2004.
35
30
25
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,
Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.
5
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
35
30
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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah,
Washington, Wyoming.
6
Sector Comparisons
According to the seasonally adjusted data, Mining
employers are forecasting the strongest hiring pace
for the coming quarter. Opportunities for job seekers
in the Services and Transportation/Public Utilities industry
sectors are also expected to be upbeat. Employers in
the Wholesale/Retail, Durable Goods Manufacturing
and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing industry
sectors are forecasting a hopeful hiring environment.
Meanwhile, employers in the Construction industry
sector are anticipating the weakest second quarter
hiring pace among all industry sectors surveyed.
Construction 15
3
11
Education
12
13
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
12
16
Manufacturing – Durables
13
15
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
13
22
Mining 20
15
Public Administration 10
22
Services 19
18
Transportation & Public Utilities 18
15
Wholesale & Retail Trade 14
0 5 10 15 20 25
7
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
25
20
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5
0
-5
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
8
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
+13 (12)%
Seasonally adjusted survey results reveal that confidence
among Finance/Insurance/Real Estate employers is
relatively stable compared to the January – March
period. The hiring pace is also moderately slower than
one year ago at this time.
25
20
15
10
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
9
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
30
25
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5
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
35
30
25
20
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5
0
-5
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
10
Public Administration +15 (10)%
Quarter-over-quarter, job prospects are expected
to decline among Public Administration employers,
according to seasonally adjusted data. Employers
are even more cautious about their staffing plans
compared to one year ago at this time.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
30
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0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
11
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
35
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0
-5
-10
-15
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
12
Global Employment Outlook
Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change
Americas Quarter 2 2007 Quarter 1 2008 Quarter 2 2008 Q1 2008 to Q2 2008 Q2 2007 to Q2 2008
% % %
Argentina 35 36 32 -4 -3
Canada 25 (19)1 6 (19)1 16 (10)1 10 (-9)1 -9 (-9)1
Costa Rica 20 32 33 1 13
Guatemala – – 21 – –
Mexico 22 (20)1 16 (20)1 24 (20)1 8 (0)1 2 (0)1
Peru 48 52 36 -16 -12
United States 21 (18)1 10 (17)1 17 (14)1 7 (-3)1 -4 (-4)1
13
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
Over 55,000 employers have been interviewed across Regionally, employers across most of the Americas
32 countries and territories to measure anticipated continue to report positive, but generally weaker Net
employment trends* between April and June 2008. Employment Outlooks compared to both Quarter 1
Hiring activity is expected to be positive, but the majority 2008 and Quarter 2 2007. Employers in Peru and Costa
of employers in Europe and the Americas are less Rica are anticipating the strongest hiring plans in the
optimistic about adding employees in the quarter ahead region, while in the United States job prospects are the
in comparison to Quarter 2 2007. Notably, employers in weakest since Quarter 1 2004. Labor markets in Asia
Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong are reporting their Pacific are expected to remain active, with employers in
most optimistic hiring intentions since the survey was Singapore, India and Hong Kong reporting the most
established there. New to the survey this quarter are optimistic Outlooks. In the Europe, Middle East & Africa
results for the Czech Republic, Greece, Guatemala, (EMEA) region, Outlooks softened from three months
Poland and Romania. ago in eight countries, and employers in 10 countries
are reporting weaker hiring plans compared to Quarter 2
Employers in Singapore, India, Romania, Peru, Costa Rica,
2007. The most optimistic Outlooks were reported by
Argentina, Poland, Hong Kong, Australia, Greece and
employers in Romania and Poland. Notably, the
South Africa are reporting the most optimistic second
Outlooks for Austria, France and Germany were either
quarter hiring plans globally. Conversely, employers in
stable or slightly improved compared to Quarter 2 2007.
Spain and Italy report the weakest job prospects for the
No negative Net Employment Outlooks were reported
quarter ahead. Employers in 16 countries and
for Quarter 2 2008.
territories are reporting less optimistic hiring intentions
* Comments in this section are based on seasonally adjusted data
compared to three months ago; seven are reporting where available.
improved Outlooks; and four indicate there will be no
change in their workforces. When compared to Quarter
2 2007 the picture is similar: Outlooks are softer in 17
countries and territories; seven report improved hiring
plans; and three indicate staffing needs will not change.
EMEA
28%
14
International Comparisons – As was the case in Quarter 1, employers in Peru, Costa
Rica and Argentina are the most optimistic about hiring
Americas in the next three months. Notably, Mexican employers
report the same steady, upbeat hiring plans seen over
Over 23,000 interviews have been conducted across
the past five quarters. Meanwhile, to the north, employers
Argentina, Canada, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Mexico,
in both the United States and Canada are less optimistic
Peru and the United States to measure anticipated
about adding staff than they were three months ago and
hiring activity for Quarter 2 2008. Employers across the
in Quarter 2 2007. The Outlook for Canada weakened
seven countries surveyed in this region are reporting
considerably year-over-year and is the weakest forecast
varying degrees of positive hiring activity. However,
for this country in 11 years. Surveyed for the first time
Outlooks weakened in four countries when compared
this quarter, Guatemalan employers anticipate a strong
to both three months ago and Quarter 2 2007.
hiring pace in the next three months.
Argentina Canada
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 2006. Guatemala joined the survey in Q2 2008.
15
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
Mexico Peru
50 60
40 50
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
USA
50
40
30
20
10
-10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
16
International Comparisons – expectations. Interestingly, the Outlook declined on
both a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis
Asia Pacific across all Chinese industry sectors surveyed. The
Outlooks reported for Australia, Hong Kong and
Over 16,000 interviews have been conducted across
Singapore are the most optimistic reported by employers
the Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiring
since the surveys were established there in Quarter 3
activity between April and June 2008. Employer
2003. Regionally, job prospects in the Services sector
optimism increased from Quarter 1 2008 and Quarter 2
are expected to improve, as employers in six of eight
2007 in four of eight countries and territories surveyed.
countries are reporting stronger Outlooks compared to
Employer hiring expectations are strongest again in Quarter 2 2007. The survey included seasonally adjusted
Singapore and India, while employers in Taiwan and data for the first time this quarter in China and Taiwan.
China are reporting the region’s least optimistic hiring
Australia China
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
17
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Singapore Taiwan
70 50
60 40
50 30
40
20
30
10
20
0
10
0 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-10 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
18
International Comparisons – Employers in Romania, Poland, Greece, South Africa
and Norway are the most optimistic about adding to
EMEA their workforces. In contrast, hiring optimism among
Irish and Spanish employers fell considerably from one
Over 15,000 interviews have been conducted with
year ago, with the Spanish Outlook being the weakest
employers across 17 EMEA countries to measure
in the region and the weakest for this country since the
anticipated hiring activity for Quarter 2 2008. Employers
survey was established there. Notably, compared to
across the region continue to report varying degrees of
Quarter 2 2007, Outlooks improved slightly in Austria
positive hiring activity, although employers in 10 of the
and France, while the Outlook remained stable in
countries are reporting less optimistic Net Employment
Germany. Employer hiring plans in the UK are
Outlooks compared to Quarter 2 2007.
moderately weaker year-over-year.
Austria Belgium
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Germany Greece
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Ireland Italy
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Netherlands Norway
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Poland Romania
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Poland joined the survey in Q2 2008. Romania joined the survey in Q2 2008.
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
20
Sweden Switzerland
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
UK
50
40
30
20
10
-10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
21
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
22
History of the Survey About Manpower Inc.
1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. employment services industry; creating and delivering services
1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work.
the United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly Celebrating its 60th anniversary in 2008, the $21 billion
Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts company offers employers a range of services for the entire
the same forward-looking research format as the United employment and business cycle including permanent,
States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe. temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook and selection; training; outplacement; outsourcing and
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. consulting. Manpower’s worldwide network of 4,500 offices in
Research methodology is updated to evolve with 80 countries and territories enables the company to meet the
advancements in the field of market research. needs of its 400,000 clients per year, including small and
medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the
2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment
world’s largest multinational corporations. The focus of
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research
Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through improved
methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and
quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across their total
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.
workforce, enabling clients to concentrate on their core
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
business activities. Manpower Inc. operates under five
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total
brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson
18 countries and territories worldwide: Australia,
Wells and Right Management. More information on Manpower
Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong
Inc. is available at www.manpower.com.
Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,
Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom
and United States.
2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
About Manpower
2005 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland and
United States
Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook In the United States, Manpower provides a wide range of
Survey. employment services that allow companies to anticipate
and benefit from the changes happening now and next in
2006 Manpower operations in Costa Rica, Peru and South
the contemporary world of work. Manpower is more than its
Africa join the survey program. Surveys in Australia,
core of temporary industrial, contact center and administrative
Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland,
recruiting, assessment and selection. In addition to recruiting
Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,
and screening for permanent positions, Manpower supports
Spain and Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the
clients’ cost savings through its managed service programs.
third quarter.
Under the Manpower Professional brand, the company
2007 Manpower operations in Argentina launch the Manpower places superior talent in areas such as information technology,
Employment Outlook Survey. The survey in New Zealand scientific, engineering, finance and telecommunications.
adds seasonally adjusted data in the first quarter. The company fulfills clients’ recruitment process outsourcing
2008 Manpower operations in the Czech Republic, Greece, needs through Manpower Business Solutions. More
Guatemala, Poland and Romania join the survey information about Manpower’s U.S. operations can be found
program. The survey in China and Taiwan adds at www.us.manpower.com.
seasonally adjusted data in the second quarter.
23
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
24
Manpower Inc., 100 Manpower Place, Milwaukee, WI 53212, USA
Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com