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Q2 2008

Manpower
Employment
Outlook Survey
United States

A Manpower Research Report


Q2/08
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Contents

United States Employment Outlook 1


Regional Comparisons
Sector Comparisons

Global Employment Outlook 13


International Comparisons – Americas
International Comparisons – Asia Pacific
International Comparisons – EMEA

About the Survey 22

About Manpower 23
United States Employment Outlook
More than 14,000 interviews Among U.S. employers surveyed, 26% foresee an
increase in hiring activity, and 9% expect a decline
have been conducted with in staff levels during Quarter 2 2008. Sixty percent
anticipate no change in the hiring pace, while 5%
employers across the are undecided about their April – June hiring plans.
United States to measure When seasonal variations are removed from the data,
anticipated employment the results show that employers expect the rate of
hiring to decline when compared to Quarter 1 2008
trends between April and one year ago at this time.
and June 2008. Please note that throughout this report, the figure
All participants were asked, used in all graphs is the ‘‘Net Employment Outlook.’’
This figure is derived by taking the percentage of
“How do you anticipate employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity

total employment at your and subtracting from this the percentage of employers
that expect to see a decrease in employment at their
location to change in the location in the next quarter.

three months to the end


of June 2008 as compared
to the current quarter?”
Net Employment Seasonally
Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
2nd Quarter 2008 26 9 60 5 17 14
1st Quarter 2008 22 12 60 6 10 17
4th Quarter 2007 27 9 58 6 18 18
3rd Quarter 2007 29 7 58 6 22 18
2nd Quarter 2007 28 7 59 6 21 18

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Compared to three months ago, employers in six of the A quarter-over-quarter comparison shows the weakest
10 industry sectors surveyed anticipate weaker hiring employment prospects since Quarter 1 2004.
plans, while those in the remaining four sectors are According to seasonally adjusted survey results,
forecasting relatively stable or improved hiring activity, employers in nine of the 10 industry sectors expect
according to seasonally adjusted survey results. the hiring pace to remain stable or decline during
For Quarter 2 2008, Mining, Construction, Durable and Quarter 2 2008. Of the 10 industry sectors surveyed,
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail only Transportation/Public Utilities employers anticipate
Trade and Public Administration employers foresee a improved conditions for job seekers in the coming
decrease in hiring pace. Hiring is expected to remain quarter versus Quarter 1 2008.
relatively stable in the Finance/Insurance/Real Estate,
Services and Education sectors, while Transportation/
Public Utilities employers are more positive about
employment prospects.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Construction 28 13 54 5 15 3
Education 18 7 70 5 11 12
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 21 8 64 7 13 12
Manufacturing – Durables 27 11 56 6 16 13
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 24 9 62 5 15 13
Mining 29 7 59 5 22 20
Public Administration 22 7 65 6 15 10
Services 29 7 59 5 22 19
Transportation & Public Utilities 26 8 60 6 18 18
Wholesale & Retail Trade 26 11 57 6 15 14

At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.

Compared to the January – March period, employers A look across the regions shows that employers in
in the West anticipate a considerable decrease in hiring the South anticipate the most favorable hiring prospects,
pace while Midwest employers anticipate a moderate while job seekers in the Midwest can expect the weakest
decrease. Employers in the Northeast and South are hiring conditions.
predicting hiring conditions similar to Quarter 1 2008.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Midwest 23 9 64 4 14 10
Northeast 27 10 58 5 17 16
South 26 7 61 6 19 17
West 28 12 52 8 16 14

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Regional Comparisons Employers in seven of the 10 industry sectors surveyed
in the Midwest predict a decline in hiring compared to
Midwest +14 (10)% Quarter 1 2008. Construction, Mining, Durable and
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail
Twenty-three percent of employers surveyed in the
Trade, Education and Services employers foresee a
Midwest expect to increase their workforces, and 9%
downturn in hiring. Transportation/Public Utilities,
anticipate a decrease in hiring pace, leading to a Net
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Public
Employment Outlook of 14%. When seasonal variations
Administration employers anticipate a hiring pace similar
are removed from the data, the Quarter 2 2008
to the January – March plans.
employment forecast is moderately weaker than last
quarter. Among the regions surveyed, employers in
the Midwest report the weakest hiring pace for
Quarter 2 2008.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 23 9 64 4 14 10
Construction 32 13 51 4 19 0
Education 10 7 78 5 3 4
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 16 5 74 5 11 10
Manufacturing – Durables 23 12 60 5 11 7
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 24 8 65 3 16 13
Mining 0 0 100 0 0 -2
Public Administration 21 11 64 4 10 0
Services 24 6 66 4 18 14
Transportation & Public Utilities 23 7 67 3 16 17
Wholesale & Retail Trade 25 10 61 4 15 11

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South
Dakota, Wisconsin.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Northeast +17 (16)% In a quarter-over-quarter comparison, employer hiring


confidence has improved in six of the 10 industry
Among employers surveyed in the Northeast, 27% sectors surveyed, including Construction,
anticipate an increase in hiring activity and 10% expect Wholesale/Retail Trade, Education, Services, Mining
a decline in additional payrolls for Quarter 2 2008. and Transportation/Public Utilities compared to Quarter
This results in a Net Employment Outlook of 17%. 1 2008. Employers in the Durable and Non-Durable
Seasonally adjusted results suggest hiring projections Goods Manufacturing sectors anticipate a similar hiring
are similar to Quarter 1 2008. However, compared with pace to Quarter 1 2008, and Finance/Insurance/Real
a year ago at this time, employers are less optimistic Estate and Public Administration expect a downturn.
about job prospects.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 27 10 58 5 17 16
Construction 34 10 52 4 24 14
Education 17 7 70 6 10 11
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 20 10 64 6 10 8
Manufacturing – Durables 32 12 50 6 20 20
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 23 12 59 6 11 10
Mining 0 0 100 0 0 10
Public Administration 16 6 72 6 10 8
Services 33 6 57 4 27 24
Transportation & Public Utilities 27 10 58 5 17 18
Wholesale & Retail Trade 26 12 56 6 14 15

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, Vermont.

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South +19 (17)% Hiring intentions are relatively stable or slightly improving
when compared to Quarter 1 2008 in the Durable
In the South, 26% of employers surveyed anticipate Goods Manufacturing, Education, Services and Public
an increase in payrolls during the April – June period, Administration sectors. Employers are less optimistic
while 7% plan to reduce staff levels, resulting in a about their staffing plans for Quarter 2 2008 in the
Net Employment Outlook of 19%. When seasonal Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail
variations are removed from the data, the employment Trade, with a more noticeable decline in the Mining and
picture is stable versus Quarter 1 2008. Employers in Construction sectors. A slight increase in hiring activity
the South are forecasting the most favorable hiring is anticipated in the Transportation/Public Utilities and
prospects of the regions. Despite positive projections Finance/Insurance/Real Estate industry sectors
on the part of employers, this is the weakest anticipated compared to January - March.
hiring pace for the South since Quarter 1 2004.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 26 7 61 6 19 17
Construction 26 10 58 6 16 7
Education 21 7 68 4 14 17
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 23 8 63 6 15 13
Manufacturing – Durables 30 8 56 6 22 18
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 23 7 65 5 16 14
Mining 31 4 61 4 27 23
Public Administration 25 3 65 7 22 18
Services 30 5 58 7 25 21
Transportation & Public Utilities 24 8 61 7 16 15
Wholesale & Retail Trade 26 10 58 6 16 16

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,
Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

West +16 (14)% According to employers, the hiring pace is expected


to decline in seven of the 10 industry sectors including
Twenty-eight percent of employers surveyed in the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Mining,
West are likely to increase staff levels, while 12% Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Services,
expect to trim payrolls during Quarter 2 2008, with a more measurable decline in the Construction,
creating a Net Employment Outlook of 16%. According Wholesale/Retail Trade and Public Administration.
to seasonally adjusted survey results, the hiring pace The hiring pace is expected to remain stable in the
is expected to take a considerable downturn compared Durable Goods Manufacturing sector compared
to Quarter 1 2008 and moderately below one year ago to Quarter 1 2008 and improve in the Transportation/
at this time. Employers in the West are predicting the Public Utilities and Education sectors.
region’s weakest hiring pace since Quarter 1 2004.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 28 12 52 8 16 14
Construction 21 21 50 8 0 -11
Education 27 7 63 3 20 21
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 24 12 53 11 12 11
Manufacturing – Durables 30 10 50 10 20 19
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 28 12 54 6 16 15
Mining 38 25 24 13 13 12
Public Administration 24 12 58 6 12 9
Services 32 11 50 7 21 18
Transportation & Public Utilities 32 5 54 9 27 28
Wholesale & Retail Trade 25 14 53 8 11 13

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah,
Washington, Wyoming.

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Sector Comparisons
According to the seasonally adjusted data, Mining
employers are forecasting the strongest hiring pace
for the coming quarter. Opportunities for job seekers
in the Services and Transportation/Public Utilities industry
sectors are also expected to be upbeat. Employers in
the Wholesale/Retail, Durable Goods Manufacturing
and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing industry
sectors are forecasting a hopeful hiring environment.
Meanwhile, employers in the Construction industry
sector are anticipating the weakest second quarter
hiring pace among all industry sectors surveyed.

Construction 15
3
11
Education
12
13
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
12
16
Manufacturing – Durables
13
15
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
13
22
Mining 20
15
Public Administration 10
22
Services 19
18
Transportation & Public Utilities 18
15
Wholesale & Retail Trade 14

0 5 10 15 20 25

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Construction +15 (3)%


In the Construction sector, employers project a
moderate decrease in hiring during the April – June
period compared to Quarter 1 2008, and the least
optimistic hiring projections of the 10 industry sectors
surveyed. According to seasonally adjusted survey
results, employers anticipate a considerably steeper
decline compared to Quarter 2 2007.

For Quarter 2 2008, hiring plans are most promising


in the Northeast, while employers in the West expect
to take a far more cautious approach to hiring than those
in the other three regions, with job cuts more likely than
job gains.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Education +11 (12)%


According to seasonally adjusted survey results, the hiring
pace in the Education sector is expected to remain stable
compared to Quarter 1 2008. Employers report more
conservative hiring plans compared to one year ago.
Among Education employers, hiring expectations are most
promising in the West, while the slowest hiring pace is
expected in the Midwest.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

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Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
+13 (12)%
Seasonally adjusted survey results reveal that confidence
among Finance/Insurance/Real Estate employers is
relatively stable compared to the January – March
period. The hiring pace is also moderately slower than
one year ago at this time.

For Quarter 2 2008, hiring is expected to be most active


in the South, while Northeast employers are the most
reserved about adding employees.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Manufacturing – Durable Goods


+16 (13)%
When seasonal variations are removed from the data,
Durable Goods Manufacturers are less optimistic about
adding staff compared to the first three months of 2008
and one year ago.

Job seekers are likely to find the strongest hiring


market in the Northeast, and the weakest job prospects
in the Midwest.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods


+15 (13)%
The hiring pace in the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
sector is expected to slow in Quarter 2 2008 compared
to the January – March period. Year-over-year, employers
report a more noticeable decline in hiring.

Employers in the West are most likely to staff up,


while the hiring landscape in the Northeast indicates
fewer opportunities for job seekers than other regions.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Mining +22 (20)%


Mining employers issued weaker hiring plans for
the April – June period compared to Quarter 1 2008.
Despite the anticipated slowdown, when seasonal
variations are removed from the data, hiring expectations
are the strongest of the 10 industry sectors surveyed.

Regional hiring patterns show that employers


in the South expect to offer the most promising job
prospects, while those in the Midwest are the most
reserved about hiring.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

10
Public Administration +15 (10)%
Quarter-over-quarter, job prospects are expected
to decline among Public Administration employers,
according to seasonally adjusted data. Employers
are even more cautious about their staffing plans
compared to one year ago at this time.

Public Administration employers in the South have


the most confidence about hiring for Quarter 2 2008,
while the hiring picture in the Midwest is least optimistic.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Services +22 (19)%


The April – June hiring pace in the Services sector
remains relatively stable compared to Quarter 1 2008
and one year ago, according to seasonally adjusted data.

During the second quarter of 2008, Services employers


in the Northeast are most optimistic about employment
prospects, while those in the Midwest express the
most conservative hiring sentiments.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Transportation & Public Utilities


+18 (18)%
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Transportation/Public
Utilities employers anticipate a slight increase in hiring
compared to Quarter 1 2008, making it the only sector
surveyed where employers are projecting improved
hiring levels. Similar hiring plans are expected when
compared with those reported one year ago.

Among the regions, employers in the West report


the strongest hiring intentions, while those in the South
are least likely to add staff.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Wholesale & Retail Trade +15 (14)%


In the Wholesale/Retail Trade sector, employers expect
the hiring momentum to decline during Quarter 2 2008,
according to seasonally adjusted data. A downturn in
hiring pace is also anticipated compared to the same
period a year ago.
Those seeking Wholesale/Retail Trade work are likely
to find the most opportunities in the South, while those in
the Midwest are expected to face the most challenges due
to weaker employer confidence levels.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

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Global Employment Outlook
Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change
Americas Quarter 2 2007 Quarter 1 2008 Quarter 2 2008 Q1 2008 to Q2 2008 Q2 2007 to Q2 2008
% % %
Argentina 35 36 32 -4 -3
Canada 25 (19)1 6 (19)1 16 (10)1 10 (-9)1 -9 (-9)1
Costa Rica 20 32 33 1 13
Guatemala – – 21 – –
Mexico 22 (20)1 16 (20)1 24 (20)1 8 (0)1 2 (0)1
Peru 48 52 36 -16 -12
United States 21 (18)1 10 (17)1 17 (14)1 7 (-3)1 -4 (-4)1

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change


Asia Pacific Quarter 2 2007 Quarter 1 2008 Quarter 2 2008 Q1 2008 to Q2 2008 Q2 2007 to Q2 2008
% % %
Australia 31 (28)1 24 (25)1 31 (28)1 7 (3)1 0 (0)1
China 21 (16)1 14 (15)1 13 (8)1 -1 (-7)1 -8 (-8)1
Hong Kong 24 (24)1 25 (27)1 30 (30)1 5 (3)1 6 (6)1
India 31 42 36 -6 5
Japan 45 (25)1 17 (23)1 39 (22)1 22 (-1)1 -6 (-3)1
New Zealand 32 (28)1 20 (22)1 24 (21)1 4 (-1)1 -8 (-7)1
1 1 1
Singapore 53 (51)1 43 (46) 62 (60) 19 (14) 9 (9)1
Taiwan 19 (13)1 14 (15)1 26 (19)1 12 (4)1 7 (6)1

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change


EMEA* Quarter 2 2007 Quarter 1 2008 Quarter 2 2008 Q1 2008 to Q1 2008 Q2 2007 to Q2 2008
% % %
Austria 10 (7)1 4 (8)1 13 (10)1 9 (2)1 3 (3)1
1 1 1 1
Belgium 7 (8) 8 (8) 6 (7) -2 (-1) -1 (-1)1
Czech Republic – – 12 – –
France 5 (4)1 6 (5)1 3 (5)1 -3 (0)1 -2 (1)1
Germany 12 (10)1 7 (12)1 12 (10)1 5 (-2)1 0 (0)1
Greece – – 23 – –
Ireland 18 (17)1 4 (6)1 6 (5)1 2 (-1)1 -12 (-12)1
Italy 7 (5)1 4 (6)1 3 (1)1 -1 (-5)1 -4 (-4)1
Netherlands 10 (9)1 10 (8)1 5 (8)1 -5 (0)1 -5 (-1)1
1 1 1 1
Norway 17 (16) 21 (23) 15 (14) -6 (-9) -2 (-2)1
Poland – – 30 – –
Romania – – 36 – –
South Africa 34 27 23 -4 -11
Spain 15 (14)1 9 (10)1 2 (1)1 -7 (-9)1 -13 (-13)1
Sweden 15 (11)1 6 (10)1 13 (10)1 7 (0)1 -2 (-1)1
Switzerland 17 8 9 1 -8
UK 14 (13)1 7 (9)1 6 (6)1 -1 (-3)1 -8 (-7)1
*EMEA – Europe, Middle East and Africa.
1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity. Please note that this data
is not available for all countries as a minimum of 13 quarters worth of data is required.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Over 55,000 employers have been interviewed across Regionally, employers across most of the Americas
32 countries and territories to measure anticipated continue to report positive, but generally weaker Net
employment trends* between April and June 2008. Employment Outlooks compared to both Quarter 1
Hiring activity is expected to be positive, but the majority 2008 and Quarter 2 2007. Employers in Peru and Costa
of employers in Europe and the Americas are less Rica are anticipating the strongest hiring plans in the
optimistic about adding employees in the quarter ahead region, while in the United States job prospects are the
in comparison to Quarter 2 2007. Notably, employers in weakest since Quarter 1 2004. Labor markets in Asia
Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong are reporting their Pacific are expected to remain active, with employers in
most optimistic hiring intentions since the survey was Singapore, India and Hong Kong reporting the most
established there. New to the survey this quarter are optimistic Outlooks. In the Europe, Middle East & Africa
results for the Czech Republic, Greece, Guatemala, (EMEA) region, Outlooks softened from three months
Poland and Romania. ago in eight countries, and employers in 10 countries
are reporting weaker hiring plans compared to Quarter 2
Employers in Singapore, India, Romania, Peru, Costa Rica,
2007. The most optimistic Outlooks were reported by
Argentina, Poland, Hong Kong, Australia, Greece and
employers in Romania and Poland. Notably, the
South Africa are reporting the most optimistic second
Outlooks for Austria, France and Germany were either
quarter hiring plans globally. Conversely, employers in
stable or slightly improved compared to Quarter 2 2007.
Spain and Italy report the weakest job prospects for the
No negative Net Employment Outlooks were reported
quarter ahead. Employers in 16 countries and
for Quarter 2 2008.
territories are reporting less optimistic hiring intentions
* Comments in this section are based on seasonally adjusted data
compared to three months ago; seven are reporting where available.
improved Outlooks; and four indicate there will be no
change in their workforces. When compared to Quarter
2 2007 the picture is similar: Outlooks are softer in 17
countries and territories; seven report improved hiring
plans; and three indicate staffing needs will not change.

Survey Respondents by Region


Research for the Quarter 2 2008 Manpower
Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying over
55,000 human resource directors and senior hiring
managers from public and private organizations
worldwide. 42% of the respondents came from seven
countries in the Americas; 30% from eight countries
Asia Pacific and territories across Asia Pacific; and 28% from
Americas 30%
17 countries in EMEA.
42%

EMEA
28%

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International Comparisons – As was the case in Quarter 1, employers in Peru, Costa
Rica and Argentina are the most optimistic about hiring
Americas in the next three months. Notably, Mexican employers
report the same steady, upbeat hiring plans seen over
Over 23,000 interviews have been conducted across
the past five quarters. Meanwhile, to the north, employers
Argentina, Canada, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Mexico,
in both the United States and Canada are less optimistic
Peru and the United States to measure anticipated
about adding staff than they were three months ago and
hiring activity for Quarter 2 2008. Employers across the
in Quarter 2 2007. The Outlook for Canada weakened
seven countries surveyed in this region are reporting
considerably year-over-year and is the weakest forecast
varying degrees of positive hiring activity. However,
for this country in 11 years. Surveyed for the first time
Outlooks weakened in four countries when compared
this quarter, Guatemalan employers anticipate a strong
to both three months ago and Quarter 2 2007.
hiring pace in the next three months.

Argentina Canada
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Argentina joined the survey in Q1 2007.

Costa Rica Guatemala


50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 2006. Guatemala joined the survey in Q2 2008.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Mexico Peru
50 60

40 50
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Peru joined the survey in Q2 2006.

USA
50

40

30

20

10

-10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

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International Comparisons – expectations. Interestingly, the Outlook declined on
both a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis
Asia Pacific across all Chinese industry sectors surveyed. The
Outlooks reported for Australia, Hong Kong and
Over 16,000 interviews have been conducted across
Singapore are the most optimistic reported by employers
the Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiring
since the surveys were established there in Quarter 3
activity between April and June 2008. Employer
2003. Regionally, job prospects in the Services sector
optimism increased from Quarter 1 2008 and Quarter 2
are expected to improve, as employers in six of eight
2007 in four of eight countries and territories surveyed.
countries are reporting stronger Outlooks compared to
Employer hiring expectations are strongest again in Quarter 2 2007. The survey included seasonally adjusted
Singapore and India, while employers in Taiwan and data for the first time this quarter in China and Taiwan.
China are reporting the region’s least optimistic hiring

Australia China
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

China joined the survey in Q2 2005.

Hong Kong India


50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

India joined the survey in Q3 2005.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Japan New Zealand


50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004.

Singapore Taiwan
70 50

60 40
50 30
40
20
30
10
20
0
10
0 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-10 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.

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International Comparisons – Employers in Romania, Poland, Greece, South Africa
and Norway are the most optimistic about adding to
EMEA their workforces. In contrast, hiring optimism among
Irish and Spanish employers fell considerably from one
Over 15,000 interviews have been conducted with
year ago, with the Spanish Outlook being the weakest
employers across 17 EMEA countries to measure
in the region and the weakest for this country since the
anticipated hiring activity for Quarter 2 2008. Employers
survey was established there. Notably, compared to
across the region continue to report varying degrees of
Quarter 2 2007, Outlooks improved slightly in Austria
positive hiring activity, although employers in 10 of the
and France, while the Outlook remained stable in
countries are reporting less optimistic Net Employment
Germany. Employer hiring plans in the UK are
Outlooks compared to Quarter 2 2007.
moderately weaker year-over-year.

Austria Belgium
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Czech Republic France


50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Czech Republic joined the survey in Q2 2008.

Germany Greece
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Greece joined the survey in Q2 2008.


19
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Ireland Italy
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Netherlands Norway
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Poland Romania
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Poland joined the survey in Q2 2008. Romania joined the survey in Q2 2008.

South Africa Spain


50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

South Africa joined the survey in Q4 2006.

20
Sweden Switzerland
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005.


No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

UK
50

40

30

20

10

-10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

21
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

About the Survey Survey Question


The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked
quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment
decrease the number of employees in their workforces during at your location to change in the three months to the end of
the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than June 2008 as compared to the current quarter?”
45 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of
Net Employment Outlook
employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the
Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment
success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:
Outlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area
employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and
of focus.
subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to
Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the see a decrease in employment at their location in the next
most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment
world, asking employers to forecast employment over the Outlook.
next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on
retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Seasonal Adjustment
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for
all of its information from a single question. Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, France, Germany,
Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,
Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative
New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan,
sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it
United Kingdom and the United States to provide additional
is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from
insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it
Manpower’s customer base.
possible to review the data without the employment fluctuations
Robust: The survey is based on interviews with over
that normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing
55,000 public and private employers across 32 countries and
a clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to
territories to measure anticipated employment trends each
add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in
quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across
the future, as more historical data is compiled. Manpower
specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.
adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment
Methodology in March of 2008.

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted


using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest
standards in market research. The research team for the
32 countries and territories where the survey is currently
conducted includes Manpower’s internal research team and
Infocorp Research. The survey has been structured to be
representative of each national economy. The margin of error for
all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%.
In the United States, the national survey is conducted by
Manpower’s North American Market Intelligence Team and
includes 14,000 employers. With this number of interviews,
the margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.

22
History of the Survey About Manpower Inc.
1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. employment services industry; creating and delivering services
1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work.
the United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly Celebrating its 60th anniversary in 2008, the $21 billion
Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts company offers employers a range of services for the entire
the same forward-looking research format as the United employment and business cycle including permanent,
States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe. temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook and selection; training; outplacement; outsourcing and
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. consulting. Manpower’s worldwide network of 4,500 offices in
Research methodology is updated to evolve with 80 countries and territories enables the company to meet the
advancements in the field of market research. needs of its 400,000 clients per year, including small and
medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the
2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment
world’s largest multinational corporations. The focus of
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research
Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through improved
methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and
quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across their total
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.
workforce, enabling clients to concentrate on their core
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
business activities. Manpower Inc. operates under five
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total
brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson
18 countries and territories worldwide: Australia,
Wells and Right Management. More information on Manpower
Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong
Inc. is available at www.manpower.com.
Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,
Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom
and United States.
2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
About Manpower
2005 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland and
United States
Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook In the United States, Manpower provides a wide range of
Survey. employment services that allow companies to anticipate
and benefit from the changes happening now and next in
2006 Manpower operations in Costa Rica, Peru and South
the contemporary world of work. Manpower is more than its
Africa join the survey program. Surveys in Australia,
core of temporary industrial, contact center and administrative
Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland,
recruiting, assessment and selection. In addition to recruiting
Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,
and screening for permanent positions, Manpower supports
Spain and Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the
clients’ cost savings through its managed service programs.
third quarter.
Under the Manpower Professional brand, the company
2007 Manpower operations in Argentina launch the Manpower places superior talent in areas such as information technology,
Employment Outlook Survey. The survey in New Zealand scientific, engineering, finance and telecommunications.
adds seasonally adjusted data in the first quarter. The company fulfills clients’ recruitment process outsourcing
2008 Manpower operations in the Czech Republic, Greece, needs through Manpower Business Solutions. More
Guatemala, Poland and Romania join the survey information about Manpower’s U.S. operations can be found
program. The survey in China and Taiwan adds at www.us.manpower.com.
seasonally adjusted data in the second quarter.

23
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

24
Manpower Inc., 100 Manpower Place, Milwaukee, WI 53212, USA
Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com

© 2008, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

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