MANPOWER INC.

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK SURVEY

FOURTH QUARTER 2001

THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK 1986-2001

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
net % +/-
% % no % % don’t net % seasonally
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted

MINING 24 65 6 5 18 18

CONSTRUCTION 22 60 14 4 8 15

MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 20 59 16 5 4 7

MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 19 62 13 6 6 7

TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 20 65 9 6 11 11

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 35 51 9 5 26 17

FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 18 69 9 4 9 11

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 24 64 6 6 18 15

SERVICES 22 62 11 5 11 15

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 19 67 10 4 9 15

ALL INDUSTRIES 24 60 11 5 13 12

UNITED STATES
EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK
REMAINS DIM
With no clear evidence of a THE OUTLOOK BY INDUSTRY 1986-2001
trend reversal on the horizon,
fourth quarter employment MINING CONSTRUCTION
activity is expected to remain
near historically low levels.
Removing the impact of
seasonal variations, the figures
show a modest, but sequential
decline that began after the
first quarter and continued
MANUFACTURING - DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING - NON-DURABLE GOODS
throughout the year. The key
segments of Durable and Non-
Durable Goods Manufacturing
project year-end hiring levels
approaching those experienced
in the recession years of 1981
and 1991. The Services indus-
try which had shown resistance TRANSPORTATION & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES
to declines in earlier quarters is
now indicating hiring plans at
historical recession levels as
well. Further hiring is essentially
seasonal, including the
Wholesale & Retail Trades as
they prepare for the holiday
selling season and the FINANCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTATE EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE
Education field, where the
final three months of the year
are usually an active employ-
ment period.

SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED
THE NORTHEAST OUTLOOK 1986-2001

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY NORTHEAST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
The winter season never bodes well for
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted companies in the Northeast region as
MINING 0 75 25 0 -25 -24 cold weather deters many business
and consumer activities. However, the
CONSTRUCTION 17 66 14 3 3 9
holiday season survives the weather and
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 17 63 15 5 2 4 Wholesale & Retail Trades will be staffing
up for it. The year-end period is also a
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 16 59 18 7 -2 1
traditional hiring period among Education
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 17 67 12 4 5 7 employers, where considerable shortages
still exist. Other industries are much less
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 35 50 10 5 25 16
optimistic. Sharp declines from prior
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 13 72 10 5 3 5 quarter among Construction firms and
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 26 67 3 4 23 18 Public Administration units are no greater
than seasonally expected, but weakness
SERVICES 21 61 12 6 9 13
among manufacturers — both Durable
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 13 77 9 1 4 9 and Non-Durable — is greater than at
any time since the early 1990s. A resur-
ALL INDUSTRIES 22 61 12 5 10 10
gence three months ago in Transportation
& Public Utilities has proven short-lived
CONNECTICUT
MAINE and a steady demand for workers in
MASSACHUSETTS Services firms over the past six quarters
NEW HAMPSHIRE has deteriorated to the weakest fourth
NEW JERSEY
NEW YORK quarter outlook in five years.
PENNSYLVANIA
RHODE ISLAND
VERMONT
THE MIDWEST OUTLOOK 1986-2001

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY MIDWEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
Except for seasonal declines, the majority
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted of industries in the Midwest will improve
MINING 29 57 14 0 15 14 their hiring from the dismal level of last
quarter. Construction firms express their
CONSTRUCTION 20 58 21 1 -1 16
first negative year-end forecast in six
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 19 60 17 4 2 5 years. Non-Durable Goods Manufac-
turers forecast only a marginal staffing
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 22 63 10 5 12 12
slowdown from the third quarter survey.
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 16 73 7 4 9 11 While expectations of Durable Goods
companies are well below those of the
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 35 52 9 4 26 16
prior period, the deseasonalized level is
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 16 73 8 3 8 11 not beyond that of three months ago. In
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 19 67 7 7 12 7 the Public Administration sector, the low
net hiring strength now seen is common
SERVICES 20 67 10 3 10 15
in the fourth quarter. As in other regions,
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 17 67 13 3 4 18 Wholesale & Retail Trades and Education
are among the most optimistic industries.
ALL INDUSTRIES 23 62 11 4 12 13

ILLINOIS
INDIANA
IOWA
KANSAS
MICHIGAN
MINNESOTA
MISSOURI
NEBRASKA
NORTH DAKOTA
OHIO
SOUTH DAKOTA
WISCONSIN
THE SOUTHERN OUTLOOK 1986-2001

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY SOUTH

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
States of the South, taking advantage of
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted the comparatively mild weather ahead,
MINING 25 67 2 6 23 22 express the most optimistic outlook in the
nation. As expected, Construction firms
CONSTRUCTION 25 62 9 4 16 19
will hire more aggressively than in other
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 25 57 13 5 12 13 regions. The same is true of Durable
Goods Manufacturers, but Non-Durable
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 18 63 13 6 5 6
Goods firms will be considerably more
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 22 64 8 6 14 12 lethargic. The industry is the only one
in the area with a forecast below the
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 36 53 7 4 29 19
national average. In Transportation &
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 20 69 8 3 12 13 Public Utilities and in Finance, Insurance
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 26 63 6 5 20 15 & Real Estate, prospects will improve
slightly over those of three months ago,
SERVICES 23 62 10 5 13 16
although both lag behind that of the final
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 21 63 9 7 12 15 quarter of last year. The Mining industry
joins Wholesale & Retail Trades and
ALL INDUSTRIES 25 61 9 5 16 15
Education as the most active recruiters.
ALABAMA MARYLAND
ARKANSAS MISSISSIPPI
DELAWARE NORTH CAROLINA
DISTRICT OKLAHOMA
OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
FLORIDA TENNESSEE
GEORGIA TEXAS
KENTUCKY VIRGINIA
LOUISIANA WEST VIRGINIA
THE WESTERN OUTLOOK 1986-2001

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY WEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
Plans in the West appear somewhat
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted less stable than in other areas. Only two
MINING 28 55 11 6 17 14 sectors — Education and Transportation
& Public Utilities — indicate more positive
CONSTRUCTION 26 53 13 8 13 19
outlooks than those of last quarter.
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 16 57 20 7 -4 0 Both Durable and Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturers are considerably less
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 21 59 14 6 7 8
optimistic than at any time in recent
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 29 51 9 11 20 18 years. The hiring pattern among Whole-
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 34 49 10 7 24 16
sale & Retail Trades since 1996 in this
busy holiday season has indicated little
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 22 60 12 6 10 11 difference between third and fourth
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 26 58 9 7 17 15 quarter activity. The present year is
no exception. Expectations in the
SERVICES 26 52 13 9 13 16
Construction industry, though below
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 25 60 10 5 15 17 those of the like quarters of the past two
years, are nonetheless unusually high for
ALL INDUSTRIES 26 55 12 7 14 13
the year end.
ALASKA
ARIZONA
CALIFORNIA
COLORADO
HAWAII
IDAHO
MONTANA
NEVADA
NEW MEXICO
OREGON
UTAH
WASHINGTON
WYOMING
INTERNATIONAL HEADQUARTERS
5301 North Ironwood Road
Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53217

www.us.manpower.com

The quarterly Employment Outlook

Survey has been conducted as a
public service of Manpower Inc. for
25 years. The survey was designed
and is administered by Manpower’s
Market Research and Analysis
Department, utilizing a statistically
representative sample of nearly 16,000
public and private employers from
among ten industrial sectors in 485
U.S. markets.
The fourth quarter 2001 survey
is a measurement of employment
plans for the permanent workforce.
The survey results reflect the intentions
of the sample employers interviewed.
Some of these intentions may change
unexpectedly upon the conclusion of
this survey.