MANPOWER INC.

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK SURVEY

THIRD QUARTER 2002

STEADY IMPROVEMENT FORESEEN
IN U.S. EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS
For the second consecutive THE OUTLOOK BY INDUSTRY 1987-2002
quarter, businesses are
predicting an upturn in job MINING CONSTRUCTION
50 50
growth, a sign of increasing 40 40

confidence in the employment 30 30

20
20

sector. Current results, on a 10 10

0
seasonally adjusted basis, 0

-10 -10

reflect the strongest hiring -20 -20

-30 -30
potential seen in five quarters 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

and all regions of the country

MANUFACTURING - DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING - NON-DURABLE GOODS
show a consistent pattern of 50 50

demand for workers. As 40

30
40

30

encouraging as the findings 20 20

10 10
are, additional progress will be 0 0

needed to reach pre-recession -10 -10

-20 -20
employment levels. Eight of 10 -30 -30
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
industries express brighter
prospects than three months TRANSPORTATION & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES
ago, with Manufacturing show- 50 50
40 40

ing the most improvement and 30 30

Services not far behind. Mining 20

10
20

10

and Education plans, which 0 0

-10 -10
have deteriorated in recent -20 -20

quarters, have now declined -30

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
-30
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

to negative outlooks. Con-

struction and Wholesale FINANCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTATE EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE
50 50
& Retail Trades, as expected, 40 40

paint the rosiest hiring pictures 30

20
30

20

this quarter, although both still 10 10

0 0
lag behind similar periods of -10 -10

the late 1990s. -20 -20

-30 -30
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

50 50
40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 -30
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED
 THE NORTHEAST OUTLOOK 1987-2002
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY NORTHEAST

net % +/- As the summer season emerges in the
% % no % % don’t net % seasonally
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted
Northeast, it will bring a higher degree of
MINING 0 25 50 25 -50 -47 employment activity that has not been
evident since mid-2001. While not fully
CONSTRUCTION 38 52 4 6 34 17
recovered to pre-recession levels, seven
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 25 57 11 7 14 12 of 10 industries report significant progress
since the diminished outlook of three
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 29 54 9 8 20 15
months ago. Particularly encouraging is
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 18 64 13 5 5 2 the confidence portrayed in the
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 33 54 6 7 27 19
Manufacturing and Finance, Insurance &
Real Estate sectors, whose companies
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 24 64 7 5 17 17 report the largest jump in projected
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 15 63 18 4 -3 -2 employment growth from last quarter,
when adjusted for seasonal factors. Of
SERVICES 28 61 6 5 22 15
continuing concern is the Education field,
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 20 66 8 6 12 8 which records its first negative outlook in
six years and is reflected nationwide as
ALL INDUSTRIES 27 59 8 6 19 14
this sector suffers through an ongoing
hiring drought. The expectations of
CONNECTICUT
MAINE Transportation & Public Utilities firms
MASSACHUSETTS show a pattern of gradual declines that
NEW HAMPSHIRE has been unbroken for the last year.
NEW JERSEY
NEW YORK
PENNSYLVANIA
RHODE ISLAND
VERMONT
 THE MIDWEST OUTLOOK 1987-2002
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY MIDWEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
Summer in the Midwest usually heralds
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted a season of increased demand for
MINING 14 43 0 43 14 4 workers and this year is no exception,
although the degree of job growth is
CONSTRUCTION 43 47 7 3 36 14
tempered by the lingering effects of
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 29 56 10 5 19 14 recession. As expected, Construction
and Wholesale & Retail Trades hold the
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 28 62 7 3 21 17
top positions. However, when seasonal
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 19 71 7 3 12 11 effects are factored out, Non-Durable
Goods Manufacturing comes to the
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 33 58 5 4 28 16
forefront, with the Durable Goods
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 17 72 5 6 12 11 segment not far behind. As is the case
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 17 57 21 5 -4 -5 in all other regions, Educators remain
unusually pessimistic, while Transpor-
SERVICES 27 63 6 4 21 15
tation & Public Utilities firms appear to
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 25 60 11 4 14 3 be ratcheting up their hiring plans after
a six-month period of subdued activity.
ALL INDUSTRIES 28 60 8 4 20 13
In the public sector, government units
ILLINOIS continue to struggle in their ability to
INDIANA provide job opportunities. The Services
IOWA sector, which traditionally staffs up in
KANSAS
MICHIGAN the third quarter, is making steady
MINNESOTA progress in regaining ground it lost
MISSOURI
NEBRASKA during the last year.
NORTH DAKOTA
OHIO
SOUTH DAKOTA
WISCONSIN
 THE SOUTHERN OUTLOOK 1987-2002
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY SOUTH

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
While the South barely surpasses other
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted regions in job potential on a seasonally
MINING 15 64 17 4 -2 -5 adjusted basis, it has shown the most
improvement from the outlook of three
CONSTRUCTION 34 58 5 3 29 22
months ago. The Non-Durable Goods
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 27 57 11 5 16 12 Manufacturing sector, while not an
industry leader this quarter, nonetheless
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 25 62 8 5 17 15
reports a substantial increase in hiring
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 21 66 6 7 15 15 activity following a year of weak projec-
tions. Wholesale & Retail Trades, which
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 28 60 6 6 22 17
represents a significant segment of
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 17 71 4 8 13 11 employment in the South, now foresees
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 14 66 12 8 2 4 a pick-up in staffing following two medi-
ocre quarters. Though not as confident
SERVICES 28 60 6 6 22 20
as in pre-recession years, Transportation
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 24 63 8 5 16 13 & Public Utilities employers expect a
healthy upturn in employment, exceeding
ALL INDUSTRIES 26 61 7 6 19 16
results of three months ago as well as
ALABAMA MARYLAND last year. A similar pattern occurs in the
ARKANSAS MISSISSIPPI Services industry which is approaching
DELAWARE NORTH CAROLINA normal third quarter expectations.
DISTRICT OKLAHOMA
OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA The Public Administration sector reports
FLORIDA TENNESSEE a moderate level of anticipated job gains,
GEORGIA TEXAS
KENTUCKY VIRGINIA a picture that has prevailed since
LOUISIANA WEST VIRGINIA mid-2001.
 THE WESTERN OUTLOOK 1987-2002
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY WEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
Not unlike the other regions of the coun-
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted try, the West is experiencing somewhat
MINING 17 61 11 11 6 3 of a renewal of confidence in its ability to
generate new jobs. As employers ease
CONSTRUCTION 36 46 7 11 29 13
out of a recession mentality to a brighter
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 27 50 14 9 13 11 mindset, caution is still apparent, but the
overall outlook is marginally better than
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 31 52 7 10 24 19
in some other regions. One of the more
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 21 61 8 10 13 9 encouraging pictures emerges in the
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 31 52 6 11 25 17
Durable Goods Manufacturing field.
This industry, when seasonally adjusted,
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 28 55 7 10 21 19 now reflects a degree of optimism fol-
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 19 51 20 10 -1 -1 lowing negative reports for three of
the last four quarters. The Finance,
SERVICES 32 48 8 12 24 18
Insurance & Real Estate industry, which
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 22 62 9 7 13 9 has shown less vulnerability to reces-
sionary pressures, is predicting a healthy
ALL INDUSTRIES 29 52 9 10 20 15
increase in employment potential this
summer and Non-Durable Goods
ALASKA
ARIZONA Manufacturers continue to make
CALIFORNIA headway in job formation as they near
COLORADO
HAWAII seasonal expectations. The Public
IDAHO Administration sector, while maintaining
MONTANA a modest level of hiring, appears to be
NEVADA
NEW MEXICO somewhat resistant to providing addi-
OREGON tional opportunities.
UTAH
WASHINGTON
WYOMING
 THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK 1987-2002
35

30

25

20

15

10

0
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

10
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
net % +/-
% % no % % don’t net % seasonally
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted

MINING 15 59 16 10 -1 -5

CONSTRUCTION 38 51 6 5 32 17

MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 27 56 11 6 16 13

MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 27 59 8 6 19 16

TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 20 66 8 6 12 11

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 31 57 6 6 25 17

FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 20 67 6 7 14 13

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 16 60 17 7 -1 -2

SERVICES 28 60 6 6 22 17

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 23 63 9 5 14 9

ALL INDUSTRIES 27 59 8 6 19 14

UNITED STATES
 ®

INTERNATIONAL HEADQUARTERS
5301 North Ironwood Road
Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53217

www.us.manpower.com

The quarterly Employment Outlook

Survey has been conducted as a
public service of Manpower Inc. for
26 years. The survey was designed
and is administered by Manpower’s
Market Research and Analysis
Department, utilizing a statistically
representative sample of nearly 16,000
public and private employers from
among ten industrial sectors in 477
U.S. markets.
The third quarter 2002 survey
is a measurement of employment
plans for the permanent workforce.
The survey results reflect the intentions
of the sample employers interviewed.
Some of these intentions may change
unexpectedly upon the conclusion of
this survey.

©Copyright. Manpower Inc. 2002. All rights reserved.