Which one do you prefer?

a) 15 minute massage now

b) 20 minute massage in an hour

Which one do you prefer?

a) 15 minute massage now

b) 20 minute massage in an hour

Which one do you prefer?

a) 15 minute massage in 158 hours

b) 20 minute massage in 159 hours

hyperbolic discounting
time inconsistency
commitment devices

Which one do you prefer?

a) 15 minute massage in 158 hours 2

b) 20 minute massage in 159 hours 6

Do you think your final research paper for this

sophomore tutorial will be better or worse than the
`average paper?

a) better

b) worse

Do you think your final research paper for this

sophomore tutorial will be better or worse than the
`average paper?

a) better

b) worse

overconfidence +
motivated cognition

Two avid sports fans plan to travel 40 miles to see a

basketball game. One of them paid for his ticket; the
other was on his way to purchase a ticket when he got
one free from a friend. A blizzard is announced for the
night of the game. Which of the two ticket holders is
more likely to brave the blizzard to see the game?
a) the fan who paid for his ticket
b) the fan who got a free ticket from his friend

Two avid sports fans plan to travel 40 miles to see a

basketball game. One of them paid for his ticket; the
other was on his way to purchase a ticket when he got
one free from a friend. A blizzard is announced for the
night of the game. Which of the two ticket holders is
more likely to brave the blizzard to see the game?
a) the fan who paid for his ticket

b) the fan who got a free ticket from his friend

Two avid sports fans plan to travel 40 miles to see a

basketball game. One of them paid for his ticket; the
other was on his way to purchase a ticket when he got
one free from a friend. A blizzard is announced for the
night of the game. Which of the two ticket holders is
more likely to brave the blizzard to see the game?
a) the fan who paid for his ticket

b) the fan who got a free ticket from his friend

mental accounting

Is the height of the tallest redwood tree more or less

than 200 feet?

a) more

b) less

Mean estimate of the height:

263 feet

Is the height of the tallest redwood tree more or less

than 1,200 feet?

a) more

b) less

Mean estimate of the height:

625 feet

Anchoring
Low anchor:
Mean estimate of the height:

High anchor:

Mean estimate of the height:

200 feet
263 feet

1,200 feet
625 feet

You have to undergo a dental procedure. The dentist

tells you it will be painful, and gives you two treatment
options. The dentist explains how painful each of the
two options will be. Both courses of treatment are
guaranteed to be successful.
Which treatment option do you prefer?

a) five minutes of excruciating pain

b) five minutes of excruciating pain,
followed by a minute of mild pain

You have to undergo a dental procedure. The dentist

tells you it will be painful, and gives you two treatment
options. The dentist explains how painful each of the
two options will be. Both courses of treatment are
guaranteed to be successful.
Which treatment option do you prefer?

a) five minutes of excruciating pain

b) five minutes of excruciating pain,

followed by a minute of mild pain

peak-end rule
salience
duration neglect

The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual

Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two
alternative programs to combat the disease have been
proposed.

The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual

Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two
alternative programs to combat the disease have been
proposed.

Program A: 200 people will be saved

Program B: There is a one-third probability
that 600 people will be saved, and a two-thirds
probability that no people will be saved

The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual

Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two
alternative programs to combat the disease have been
proposed.

Program A: 200 people will be saved

Program B: There is a one-third probability

that 600 people will be saved, and a two-thirds
probability that no people will be saved
2

The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual

Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two
alternative programs to combat the disease have been
proposed.

Program A: 400 people will die

Program B: There is a one-third probability
that nobody will die, and a two-thirds
probability that 600 people will die

The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual

Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two
alternative programs to combat the disease have been
proposed.

Program A: 400 people will die

Program B: There is a one-third probability

that nobody will die, and a two-thirds
probability that 600 people will die
6

Choose between getting $900 for sure or a 90 percent

chance of getting $1,000.

getting $900 for sure

90 percent chance of getting $1000

Choose between getting $900 for sure or a 90 percent

chance of getting $1,000.

getting $900 for sure

90 percent chance of getting $1000

Choose between losing $900 for sure or a 90 percent

chance of losing $1,000.

losing $900 for sure

90 percent chance of losing $1000

Choose between losing $900 for sure or a 90 percent

chance of losing $1,000.

losing $900 for sure

90 percent chance of losing $1000

Prospect theory

An individual has been described by a neighbor as

follows: Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably
helpful but with very little interest in people or in the
world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for
order and structure, and a passion for detail. Is Steve
more likely to be a librarian or a truck driver?

Librarian
Truck Driver

An individual has been described by a neighbor as

follows: Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably
helpful but with very little interest in people or in the
world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for
order and structure, and a passion for detail. Is Steve
more likely to be a librarian or a truck driver?

Librarian

Truck Driver

From the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

In 2013, there were

Male librarians:

30,846

Male truck drivers:

3,082,896

representativeness heuristic

Linda is thirty-one years old, single, outspoken, and

very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student,
she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination
and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear
demonstrations.

Linda is thirty-one years old, single, outspoken, and

very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student,
she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination
and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear
demonstrations.
an elementary school teacher
active in the feminist movement
a bank teller
an insurance salesperson
a bank teller also active in the feminist movement

Linda is thirty-one years old, single, outspoken, and

very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student,
she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination
and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear
demonstrations.
1.25 - active in the feminist movement
2.75 - an elementary school teacher
3.25 a bank teller also active in the feminist movement
3.63 a bank teller
4.13 an insurance salesperson

Linda is thirty-one years old, single, outspoken, and

very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student,
she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination
and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear
demonstrations.
1.25 - active in the feminist movement
2.75 - an elementary school teacher
3.25 a bank teller also active in the feminist movement
3.63 a bank teller
4.13 an insurance salesperson

conjunction fallacy