TO:

Interested individuals

FROM: Scott Riding Y2 Analytics

DATE: July 18, 2016

REPRESENTATIVE MIA LOVE IN STRONG POSITION FOR REELECTION IN UT-4

As voters in Utahs 4th Congressional District begin to turn their attention to races down-ballot, Representative
Mia Love starts her reelection bid with support from 51% of likely voters. Challengers Doug Owens and Collin
Simonsen enjoy 36% and 4%, respectively, while 8% of likely voters are still undecided. Despite an election that is
still months away, Rep. Loves support includes 32% of voters who say they will definitely vote for her, compared
to 23% who say they will definitely vote for Mr. Owens and 2% who say they will definitely vote for Mr. Simonsen.
This is the strongest ballot position we have polled for the incumbent since Y2 Analytics began researching this
district in early 2014, suggesting that her support has grown beyond the Republican base and into the bloc of
independents that historically made this district competitive. Among non-partisan independents she is ahead by 3
percentage points and in the Salt Lake County portions of the districtwhich historically have leaned toward the
Democratic candidate in this raceRep. Love leads by 9 percentage points.
Voters are poised to reelect Rep. Love despite strong distaste for the candidates at the top of the ticket. 61% of
likely voters in this district report a very unfavorable sentiment toward presumptive Republican presidential
nominee Donald Trump, but 61% also report a very unfavorable sentiment toward presumptive Democratic
presidential nominee Hillary Clinton (as you might expect, the two groups overlap but are not the same set of
voters). As a result, the presidential race in this congressional district is a statistical tie between Republican Donald
Trump at 29%, Democrat Hillary Clinton at 27%, and Libertarian Gary Johnson at 26%, with 8% mentioning
another candidate, and 10% undecided. However, this presidential uncertainty has not translated to down-ballot
consequences for either party so far.
This poll of 300 likely voters was conducted July 712. The poll carries a +- 5.7 percentage points margin of error.
Live callers conducted the interviews over both landline phones and cell phones.
See attached topline report for complete survey details, including sampling methodology, full question wording,
results, and demographics.

Y2 Analytics 60 S 600 E Suite 250 SLC, UT 84102 www.y2analytics.com

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UTAH 4th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT JULY BRUSHFIRE SURVEY

TOPLINE REPORT


METHODOLOGY DETAILS
n=300 Likely Voters in Utah CD-4
Live phone interviews over landlines and cell phones fielded July 7-12, 2016
Margin of error +-5.7
th

For these survey results, 300 likely voters were sampled from the states file of active registered voters in the Utah 4 Congressional
District (see sampling details below). Sampling error is only one possible source of error in survey research. Results can also be
affected by measurement error (e.g. question wording and question order), coverage error (e.g. counting as likely voters survey
respondents who will not vote), and non-response error (e.g. the people who responded to the survey are systematically different from
people who refused or were not reachable).
Before drawing the sample, a model of general election turnout was estimated using age, political party registration, length of
registration, permanent absentee status, vote-by-mail county status, and past election turnout (one recent general election is used as
the dependent variable, in this case the 2008 general election). This model produces a sampling pool of registered voters that can
be randomly sampled based on their likelihood of voting. A Probability Proportionate to Size (PPS) sample was drawn using this
predicted turnout estimate such that voters with a higher probability of voting have a higher probability of being selected in the
sample. Thus, the final sample accurately approximates a population of general election voters.
Quotas were set to ensure that the data would reflect voter population proportions drawn from the PPS sample. After the interviews
were completed, we weighted the final dataset to ensure proportions better reflected the demographics in the PPS sample, including
propensity to vote, county of residence, and gender.
CONTACT
For more information, please contact Scott Riding or Quin Monson at:
Scott Riding, 801-556-3204, scott@y2analytics.com
Quin Monson, 801-367-6588, quin@y2analytics.com
2

Y Analytics
60 South 600 East Ste. 250
Salt Lake City, Utah 84102

Y2 Analytics 60 S 600 E Suite 250 SLC, UT 84102 www.y2analytics.com

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QINTRO.

Hello, I'm (NAME OF INTERVIEWER) calling from KRS Research, a Utah-based survey research company. We're
talking to people today about public issues and the upcoming elections. The survey responses are completely
anonymous, and we wont try to sell you anything. Wed very much like to have the opinions of (NAME ON LIST).
Could I please speak with that person?

QSCREEN.

Are you, or is anyone in your household, employed with an advertising agency, newspaper, television or radio
station, or political campaign?
Yes
No
Dont know/Refused (volunteered)

QSAFETY.

For your safety, are you currently driving? (Only asked of interviews conducted over a cell phone, n = 100)
Yes (scheduled callback)
No
Dont know/Refused (volunteered)

QTRACK1.

*
100%
*

*
100%
*

Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the
wrong track?
Right direction
Wrong track
Dont know / Refused

Y2 Analytics 60 S 600 E Suite 250 SLC, UT 84102 www.y2analytics.com

17%
77
6

Page 3 of 11

Now, I am going to read you the names of some people who have been in the news lately. For each one, please tell me if you are
aware or not aware of that person. (IF AWARE) Is your general impression of (him/her) favorable or unfavorable? (IF
FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE) Would that be very (favorable/unfavorable) or just somewhat (favorable/unfavorable)?
(QFAV1-QFAV4 WERE READ IN RANDOMIZED ORDER)
The first/next one is
QFAV1.

QFAV2.

Mia Love
Aware, very favorable
Aware, somewhat favorable
Aware, somewhat unfavorable
Aware, very unfavorable
Aware, no impression
Aware, refused impression
Not aware
Dont know / Refused

23%
29
14
20
10
*
4
*

COLLAPSED
Total Aware
Total Unaware
Total Favorable
Total Unfavorable

96%
4
52%
34

Doug Owens
Aware, very favorable
Aware, somewhat favorable
Aware, somewhat unfavorable
Aware, very unfavorable
Aware, no impression
Aware, refused impression
Not aware
Dont know / Refused

15%
18
8
4
16
1
38
1

COLLAPSED
Total Aware
Total Unaware
Total Favorable
Total Unfavorable

62%
38
32%
12

Y2 Analytics 60 S 600 E Suite 250 SLC, UT 84102 www.y2analytics.com

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QFAV3.

QFAV4.

Donald Trump
Aware, very favorable
Aware, somewhat favorable
Aware, somewhat unfavorable
Aware, very unfavorable
Aware, no impression
Aware, refused impression
Not aware
Dont know / Refused

6%
14
13
61
4
1
*
*

COLLAPSED
Total Aware
Total Unaware
Total Favorable
Total Unfavorable

99%
*
20%
74

Hillary Clinton
Aware, very favorable
Aware, somewhat favorable
Aware, somewhat unfavorable
Aware, very unfavorable
Aware, no impression
Aware, refused impression
Not aware
Dont know / Refused

11%
13
11
61
4
1
*
*

COLLAPSED
Total Aware
Total Unaware
Total Favorable
Total Unfavorable

99%
*
24%
72

Y2 Analytics 60 S 600 E Suite 250 SLC, UT 84102 www.y2analytics.com

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QPRESBALLOT.

If the November election for the President of the United States were being held today, and the
candidates were (ROTATED) Donald Trump, the Republican candidate; Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
candidate; and Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate; if you had to choose, who would you vote for?
(IF CANDIDATE) And would you say you are definitely voting for CANDIDATE, or could you still change
your mind? (IF DK/REF) And if you had to choose, would you vote for (ROTATE) Donald Trump, the
Republican candidate; Hillary Clinton, the Democrat candidate; or Gary Johnson, the Libertarian
candidate?
Donald Trump, definitely
Donald Trump, could change mind
Donald Trump, if had to choose
Hillary Clinton, definitely
Hillary Clinton, could change mind
Hillary Clinton, if had to choose
Gary Johnson, definitely
Gary Johnson, could change mind
Gary Johnson, if had to choose
Other, definitely
Other, could change mind
Other, if had to choose
Dont know / Refused

14%
9
6
19
5
4
9
12
5
6
1
1
10

COLLAPSED
Total Donald Trump
Total Hillary Clinton
Total Gary Johnson
Total Other
DK/REF

29%
27
26
8
10

Y2 Analytics 60 S 600 E Suite 250 SLC, UT 84102 www.y2analytics.com

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QCD4BALLOT.

If the November election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, and you had to
choose, would you vote for (ROTATE) Mia Love, the Republican candidate; Doug Owens, the Democrat
candidate; or Collin Simonsen, the Constitution Party candidate? (IF CANDIDATE) And would you say
you are definitely voting for CANDIDATE, or could you still change your mind? (IF DK/REF) And if you
had to choose, would you vote for (ROTATE) Mia Love, the Republican candidate; Doug Owens, the
Democrat candidate; or Collin Simonsen, the Constitution Party candidate?
Mia Love, definitely
Mia Love, could change mind
Mia Love, if had to choose
Doug Owens, definitely
Doug Owens, could change mind
Doug Owens, if had to choose
Collin Simonsen, definitely
Collin Simonsen, could change mind
Collin Simonsen, if had to choose
Other, definitely
Other, could change mind
Other, if had to choose
Dont know / Refused

32%
16
4
23
10
3
2
2
*
*
*
*
8

COLLAPSED
Total Mia Love
Total Doug Owens
Total Collin Simonson
Total Other
DK/REF

Y2 Analytics 60 S 600 E Suite 250 SLC, UT 84102 www.y2analytics.com

51%
36
4
*
8

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Now I have just a few final questions for statistical purposes

QPHONE.

Which of the following best describes you

I only have a landline phone in my household and no cell phone
I have both a landline and a cell phone
I only have a cell phone
Dont know / Refused

5%
48
46
1

(IF QPHONE = I have both a landline and a cell phone)

QPHONEUSE.

And of all the telephone calls that your household receives, how many calls come through your landline
phone versus your cell phones?
All or almost all calls are received on cell phones
Some are received on cell phones and some on landline phones
Very few or none are received on cell phones
Dont know / Refused

QPARTYID.

26%
53
19
2

Generally speaking...do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent or

something else?
Republican
Democrat
Independent/Something else
No preference (volunteered)
Other (volunteered)
Dont know / Refused

31%
19
48
1
1
1

(IF QPARTYID=Republican OR Democrat, RESPONDENT ASKED QINTENSE OTHERWISE SKIPPED TO FILTER BEFORE QLEAN)
QINTENSE.

Would you call yourself a strong (Republican/Democrat) or a not very strong (Republican/Democrat)?
Strong
Not very strong
Dont know / Refused

Y2 Analytics 60 S 600 E Suite 250 SLC, UT 84102 www.y2analytics.com

63%
36
1

Page 8 of 11

(IF PARTYID=Independent/Something Else, No Preference, Other, or DK/REF, RESPONDENT WAS ASKED QLEAN OTHERWISE SKIPPED
TO QIDEOLOGY)
QLEAN.

Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or the Democratic Party?

Republican
Democratic
Neither (volunteered)
Dont know / Refused

PARTY7.

PARTY IDENTIFICATION RECODED TO 7 CATEGORIES

Strong Republican
Not very strong Republican
Independent leaning Republican
Independent/Other/DK
Independent leaning Democrat
Not very strong Democrat
Strong Democrat

QIDEOLOGY.

51%
25
19
5

18%
13
26
12
13
6
13

On most political matters do you consider yourself:

(RESPONDENTS HEARD OPTIONS IN ROTATED ORDER, RANDOMLY EITHER Strongly Conservative to Strongly Liberal, OR VICE VERSA)
Strongly conservative
Moderately conservative
Neither, middle of the road
Moderately liberal
Strongly liberal
Dont know / Refused

Y2 Analytics 60 S 600 E Suite 250 SLC, UT 84102 www.y2analytics.com

23%
29
24
13
9
2

Page 9 of 11

QRELIGION.

What, if any, is your religious preference?

Mormon / LDS
Protestant (e.g. Baptist, Methodist, etc.)
Roman Catholic
Jewish
Other Christian
Muslim / Islamic
Other non-Christian
Agnostic / Atheist
None
Dont know / Refused

57%
4
2
*
8
*
*
5
20
5

(IF QRELIGION=Mormon THROUGH Other non-Christian ASKED QGOCHUR2, OTHERWISE SKIPPED TO QLIKELIHOOD)
QGOCHUR2.

How active do you consider yourself in the practice of your religious preference? Would you say you
are
Very active
Somewhat active
Not very active
Not active
Prefer not to say

74%
14
7
4
1

Now, thinking ahead to the election for Congress that will be held this November
QLIKELIHOOD.

GENDER.

What is the likelihood of your voting in the upcoming election for Congress are you extremely likely,
very likely, somewhat likely, or not very likely at all?
Extremely likely
Very likely
Somewhat likely

54%
32
9

Not very likely at all

Dont know / Refused

4
2

(BY OBSERVATION)
Male
Female

49%
51

Y2 Analytics 60 S 600 E Suite 250 SLC, UT 84102 www.y2analytics.com

Page 10 of 11

AGEGROUP.

(RECODED FROM VOTER FILE)

18-34
35-54
55-64
65+
Unlisted

COUNTYID.

(From VOTER FILE)

JUAB
SALT LAKE
SANPETE
UTAH

BACKPAGE.

26%
36
17
19
3

1%
86
2
11

Thank you for your time and opinions. This survey has been paid for by Friends of Mia Love. Good-bye.

Y2 Analytics 60 S 600 E Suite 250 SLC, UT 84102 www.y2analytics.com

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