Probability and Statistics A

Introductory Lecture

Presentation Flow

Course Books
Learning Objectives
Grading Policy
Class Rules
Probability
Statistics
Probability vs. Statistics
Why study this course

Course Books
Textbook:
Probability and Statistics for Engineers and
Scientists by Ronald E. Walpole, Raymond H. Myers,
Sharon L. Myers, Keying E. Ye, Ninth Edition, Pearson
Education, 2012

Reference Book:
Miller and Freunds Probability and Statistics for
Engineers by Richard A. Johnson, Irwin Miller, John
Freund, Eighth Edition, Pearson Education, 2012

Course Objectives
Learn the language and core concepts of probability theory.
Understand basic principles of statistical inference
Use software and simulation to do statistics (MATLAB
and/or MS Excel).
Become an informed consumer of statistical information.
Basis for further coursework or on-the-job study.

P.S: The detailed course objectives for both probability and statistics can be found at the end of this
presentation

Grading
Distribution

Weightage

Assignments

15%

Project & Presentation

15%

Mid Term

30%

Final

40%

Class Rules
I ask you to please observe some common courtesies,
specifically to:
arrive to class on time;
do not talk to others when I am talking;
do not allow your cell phone to ring or send text
messages during class;
staple pages together when you hand in a multi-page
assignment;
include your name when you send me an e-mail
message.

Probability
Probability is the mathematical study of uncertainty or
randomness.
In probability, a prediction is made based on a general
model, which satisfies all aspects of the problem. This
enables to quantify the uncertainty and the likelihood of
occurrence of events in the scenario.
Probability distribution functions are used to describe
the probability of all possible events in the considered
problem.

Statistics
Statistics is the science of gaining information from data.
We can divide statistics in practice into three parts:

Data analysis concerns methods and ideas for

organizing and describing data using graphs, and
numerical summaries.
Data production provides methods for producing
data. i.e., how to select samples and design experiments.
Statistical inference uses data to draw conclusions
about some wider population. Probability theory allows
us to accompany our conclusions with a statement about
how trustworthy our conclusions are.

Probability vs. Statistics

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event
to occur.
Statistics is the discipline of collection, organization,
analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data.
Most statistical models are based on experiments
and hypotheses, and probability is integrated into
the theory, to explain the scenarios better.

Probability vs. Statistics : Example

We have a drawer with 100 socks. Depending upon our
knowledge of the socks, we could have either a statistics
problem or a probability problem.

Probability vs. Statistics : Example (2)

If we know that there are 30 red socks, 20 blue socks and
50 black socks, then we can use probability to answer
questions about the makeup of a random sample of these
socks.
What is the probability that we draw two blue socks and
two red socks from the drawer?
What is the probability that we pull out 3 socks and have a
matching pair?
What is the probability that we draw five socks, with
replacement, and they are all black?

Probability vs. Statistics : Example (3)

If we have no knowledge about the types of socks in the
drawer, then we enter into the realm of statistics.
A random sampling of ten socks from the drawer produced
one blue sock, four red socks and five black socks. What is
the total proportion of black, blue and red socks in the
drawer?
We randomly sample ten socks from the drawer, write
down the number of black socks, and then return the socks
to the drawer. This process is done five times. The mean
number of socks is for each of these trials is 7. What is the
true number of black socks in the drawer?

Why Study Statistics

When information is sought, statistical ideas suggest a typical
collection process with four crucial steps.
Plan: Set clearly defined goals for the investigations.
Collect: Collect data to be analyzed.
Analyze: Apply appropriate statistical methods to extract
information from the data.
Communicate: Interpret the information and draw
conclusions.

Why Study Statistics (2)

Answers provided by statistical approaches can provide
the basis for making decisions or choosing actions.
Medicine
Environment
Industry
Policy Making
Market trends

Why Study Statistics (3)

Source American Statistical Association

http://www.amstat.org/

Specific Learning Objectives -Probability

Students completing the course will be able to:
Use basic counting techniques (multiplication rule, combinations,
permutations) to compute probability and odds.
Use R to run basic simulations of probabilistic scenarios.
Compute conditional probabilities directly and using Bayes' theorem, and
check for independence of events.
Set up and work with discrete random variables. In particular, understand
the Bernoulli, binomial, geometric and Poisson distributions.
Work with continuous and discrete random variables. In particular, know the
properties of uniform, normal and exponential distributions.
Know what expectation and variance mean and be able to compute them.
Understand the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.
Compute the covariance and correlation between jointly distributed
variables.
Use available resources (the internet or books) to learn about and use other
distributions as they arise.
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Specific Learning Objectives -Statistics

Students completing the course will be able to:
Create and interpret scatter plots and histograms.
Understand the difference between probability and likelihood functions, and
find the maximum likelihood estimate for a model parameter.
Do Bayesian updating with discrete priors to compute posterior distributions
and posterior odds.
Do Bayesian updating with continuous priors.
Construct estimates and predictions using the posterior distribution.
Find credible intervals for parameter estimates.
Use null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) to test the significance of
results, and understand and compute the p-value for these tests.
Use specific significance tests including, z-test t-test (one and two sample), chisquared test.
Find confidence intervals for parameter estimates.
Use bootstrapping to estimate confidence intervals.
Compute and interpret simple linear regression between two variables.
Set up a least squares fit of data to a model.
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