Water International

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Drought Concepts and Characterization

Ana A. Paulo & Luis S. Pereira
To cite this article: Ana A. Paulo & Luis S. Pereira (2006) Drought Concepts and
Characterization, Water International, 31:1, 37-49, DOI: 10.1080/02508060608691913
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02508060608691913

Published online: 22 Jan 2009.

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International Water Resources Association

Water International, Volume 31, Number 1, Pages 3749, March 2006
2006 International Water Resources Association

Drought Concepts and Characterization:

Comparing Drought Indices Applied at Local and Regional Scales

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Ana A. Paulo and Luis S. Pereira, Agricultural Engineering Research Center, Institute
of Agronomy, Technical University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal
Abstract: A better knowledge of droughts is required to improve water management in water scarce
areas. To appropriately cope with droughts, there is the need to adopt adequate concepts relative to
droughts and water scarcity, to properly use drought indices that help characterize them, including
ones relative to their severity, and to develop prediction tools that may be useful for early warning and
that may reduce the respective lead time needed for appropriate response. In this paper, concepts
relative to drought and other water scarcity regimes are discussed aiming both to distinguish droughts
from other water scarcity regimes and to base a common understanding of the general characteristics of
droughts as hazards and disasters. Three main drought indices are described aiming at appropriate
characterization of droughts: the theory of runs, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and the
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Their application to local and regional droughts in the region
of Alentejo, Portugal is presented focusing on the respective comparison and possible adequateness for
drought monitoring. Results indicate some difficulties in using the theory of runs, particularly because
it requires a subjective definition of thresholds in precipitation and does not provide a standardized
classification of severity. Results show that drought characterization with the PDSI and the SPI produce
coherent information, but the PDSI is limited relative to the SPI because it requires more data to perform
a soil water balance while the SPI needs only precipitation data, which are more easily available in
numerous locations. It is concluded that adopting the SPI is appropriate, but there is advantage in
combining different indices to characterize droughts.
Keywords: Palmer Drought Severity Index, Portugal, Standardized Precipitation Index, theory of
runs, water scarcity

Water Scarcity and Drought

The sustainable use of water is a priority for water
scarce regions and for agriculture in particular. Imbalances
between availability and demand, degradation of surface
and groundwater quality, inter-sectorial competition, interregional, and international conflicts all bring water issues
to the foreground. In fact, developments in controlling and
diverting surface waters, exploring groundwater, and using the resources for a variety of purposes have been undertaken without sufficient care being given to conserving
the natural resource, avoiding wastes and misuse, and preserving the quality of the resource. Thus, water is currently becoming scarce not only in arid and drought prone
areas, but also in regions where rainfall is relatively abundant. Scarcity is now viewed under the perspective of the
quantities available for economic and social uses, as well
37

as in relation to water requirements for natural and manmade ecosystems. The concept of scarcity also embraces
the quality of water because degraded water resources
are unavailable or at best only marginally available for
use in human and natural systems (Pereira et al., 2002).
The sustainable use of water implies resource conservation, environmental friendliness, technological appropriateness, economic viability, and social acceptability of
development issues. The adoption of these sustainability
facets is a priority for using water in every human, economic and social activity human and domestic consumption, agriculture, industry, energy production, recreational
and leisure uses particularly in water scarce regions as
analyzed by Pereira et al. (2002). However, the causes
for water scarcity have to be well understood and identified in order to adopt the measures and practices that are
appropriate for each case. Moreover, global change may
highly impact water resources availability by increasing

38

A. Paulo and L. Pereira

Table 1. Nature and causes of water scarcity in dry environments

Water Scarcity Regime

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Permanent
Temporary

Nature produced

Man induced

Aridity
Drought

Desertification
Water shortage

the variability of rainfall in arid regions, the climate extremes and, particularly, the frequency and severity of
droughts (Kabat et al., 2002). Therefore, the understanding of drought phenomena, their identification and prediction constitute a current challenge to mitigate the drought
impacts in many areas around the world.
Water scarcity may result from a range of phenomena. These may be produced by natural causes, may be
induced by human activities, or may result from the interaction of both, as indicated in Table 1.
In a recent study for UNESCO, these water scarcity
regimes were defined and analyzed in view of developing
the appropriate means to cope with water scarcity. The
following definitions and concepts (Pereira et al., 2002),
based upon those originally proposed by Yevjevich et al.
(1983), are adopted:
Aridity is a natural permanent imbalance in the water
availability consisting in low average annual precipitation, with high spatial and temporal variability, resulting
in overall low moisture and low carrying capacity of
the ecosystems. Aridity may be defined through climatological indices such as the Thornthwaite moisture index, the Budyko radiation index of dryness, or the
UNESCO precipitation/evapotranspiration index
(Sanderson, 1992). Under aridity, extreme variations
of temperatures occur, and the hydrologic regimes are
characterized by large variations in discharges, flash
floods and large periods with very low or zero flows.
Drought is a natural but temporary imbalance of water
availability, consisting of a persistent lower-than-average precipitation, of uncertain frequency, duration and
severity, of unpredictable or difficult to predict occurrence, resulting in diminished water resources availability, and reduced carrying capacity of the
ecosystems. Many other definitions of drought exist
(e.g. Yevjevich, 1967; Dracup et al., 1980; Wilhite and
Glantz, 1987; Tate and Gustard, 2000). Generally, these
definitions clearly state that drought is mainly due to
the break down of the rainfall regime, which causes a
series of consequences, including agricultural and hydrological hazards that result from the severity and
duration of the lack of rainfall. The less predictable
characteristics of droughts with respect to their initiation and termination, frequency, and severity make
drought both a hazard and a disaster: a hazard because
it is a natural event of unpredictable occurrence but of
recognizable recurrence; a disaster because it causes
the disruption of the water supply to the natural and
agricultural ecosystems as well as to other human activities.

Desertification is a man-induced permanent imbalance

in the availability of water, which is combined with damaged soil, inappropriate land use, mining of groundwater, and can result in increased flash flooding, loss of
riparian ecosystems and a deterioration of the carrying
capacity of the ecosystems. Soil erosion and salinity
are commonly associated with desertification. Climate
change also contributes to desertification, which occurs in arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid climates. Drought
strongly aggravates the process of desertification by
increasing the pressure on the diminished surface and
groundwater resources. However, different definitions
are used for desertification, generally focusing on land
degradation, as it is the definition proposed by the United
Nations Convention to Combat Desertification: land
degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid zones
resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activities. In this definition land is understood as territory and is not restricted to agricultural
land since desertification causes and impacts do not
relate only with the agricultural activities but are much
wider, affecting many human activities, nature and the
overall living conditions of populations (Pereira et al.,
2005). However, these definitions need to be broadened in scope to focus attention on the water scarcity
issues, calling attention to the fact that the misuse of
water is clearly a cause of desertification.
Water shortage is also a man-induced but temporary
water imbalance including groundwater and surface
water over-exploitation and degraded water quality that
is often associated with disturbed land use and altered
carrying capacity of the ecosystems. For example,
withdrawals may exceed groundwater recharge, surface reservoirs may be of inadequate capacity and land
use may have changed, revising the local ecosystem
and altering the infiltration and runoff characteristics.
Degraded water quality is often associated with water
shortages and exacerbates the effects of water scarcity. There is no widely accepted definition for this water
scarce regime and the term water shortage is often
used synonymously with water scarcity. However it is
important to recognize that water scarcity can result
from human activity, either by overuse of the natural
supply inappropriately called man-induced droughts
or by degradation of the water quality.

In terms of water management, regions having dry

climates due to natural aridity are often not distinguished
from drought prone areas. This rough approximation of
concepts can be misleading in water management. To successfully cope with drought, there is a need to understand
the characteristics and consequences of the phenomena
that make water scarcity due to drought very different
from that caused by aridity. Dealing with water scarcity
situations resulting from aridity usually requires the establishment of engineering and management measures that

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Drought Concepts and Characterization:

Comparing Drought Indices Applied at Local and Regional Scales

produce the conservation and perhaps the seasonal augmentation of the available resource. On the other hand
droughts require the development and implementation of
preparedness and emergency measures.
Differences in the perception of drought lead to the
adoption of different definitions, which do not have general acceptance nor have worldwide applicability as reviewed by Wilhite and Glantz (1987) and Tate and Gustard
(2000). The perception of the hazardous nature of dependence on precipitation and water availability depends on
the climatic, meteorological and hydrological regimes of
the affected region, as well as on the severity of the effects. Some authors prefer to adopt an operational definition that distinguishes between meteorological, agricultural,
and hydrological droughts. These usually focus on the indicator variable of prime interest, which could be the precipitation (meteorological drought), soil moisture
(agriculture drought), stream flow discharges or groundwater levels (hydrological drought and groundwater
drought). Alternative definitions result from the complexity of the hydrological process that controls the temporal
and spatial distribution of rainfall via the various paths within
the large-scale hydrological cycle and the global circulation of the atmosphere. In certain regions, where water
supplies mainly depend upon river diversions, when dealing with a regional drought it may be necessary to consider not only precipitation but also stream flow. However,
stream flow is also a dependent variable, controlled by the
current and antecedent precipitation. In many cases,
where the river discharges are regulated by dams and other
hydraulic structures, the drought definition may need to be
more a reflection of the river management decisions than
of the natural supply.
The controversy over perceptions of drought and the
consequent defining of them and their characteristics do
not help decision and policy makers to plan for droughts
and is one of the central problems of water management
for drought (Grigg and Vlachos, 1990). Lack of clearly
agreed definitions makes it difficult to implement preparedness measures, to apply timely mitigation measures when
a drought occurs or to adequately evaluate drought impacts. Using appropriate drought indices to monitor climate and hydrological variables related with drought is
extremely helpful to identify the occurrence of droughts,
their onset, evolution and dissipation, so to adopt first preventive measures and, later, appropriate mitigation measures. As for definitions, there is no common agreement
on drought indices, their adaptation to local climates or
about their use in water management. However, adopting
appropriate drought indices supports water management
decisions in line with dominant water scarcity problems
and should help not only coping with droughts but with
water scarcity. Further analysis is provided in the abovereferred UNESCO publication by Pereira et al. (2002).
Several studies were developed in Portugal relative to
drought indices and their use for local and regional droughts.

39

However, there is not a common agreement about them

and different agencies use different indices, which make
drought perception and characterization difficult. In view
of contributing to a better understanding and management
of droughts, the objective of this study is the characterization of droughts in the region of Alentejo, in southern Portugal, which is a semi-arid and water stressed region.
Droughts are analyzed in the perspective of precipitation
anomalies that are identified through drought indices. A
comparison of three drought indices Theory of Runs,
the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and the Standardized
Precipitation Index is presented and discussed aiming at
both local and regional analysis of droughts.

Drought Identification and Characterization

Drought Indices
The characterization of a drought using indices is controversial and often contradictory, depending on the perception of drought. It is common that agronomists use the
word drought to define a water stress condition affecting
crop growth and yield (Maracchi, 2000). Drought could
then be characterized by a crop-water stress index (e.g.
Vermes, 1998). Short duration dry periods impacting agricultural crops are not considered to be droughts, but are
defined as dry spells (e.g. Lohani et al., 1998; Sousa and
Frizzone, 1998; Ochola and Kerkides, 2003). These are
characteristic of sub-humid temperate and tropical climates, and may cause relatively long periods of low soil
moisture that limit agricultural activities. However they
have less impact on natural ecosystems and on other human activities.
Meteorologists and hydrologists have developed indices, which depend on hydro-meteorological parameters
or rely on probability. Several drought studies (e.g.
Yevjevich et al., 1983, Wilhite et al., 1987; Vogt and Somma,
2000; Heim, 2002; Hayes, 2003) give examples and analyze several of these indices. Stochastic analysis including
the theory of runs has been successfully applied for characterization of local and regional droughts in Mediterranean areas (Rossi et al., 1992; Al-Salihi, 2003; Bergaoui,
2003; Cancelliere and Rossi, 2003), particularly in Portugal (Santos, 1983; Santos et al., 1988; Henriques and Santos,
1996). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is receiving particular attention since it was first developed
(McKee et al., 1993), but only recently it has been applied
to the analysis of regional droughts in Mediterranean regions (Paulo and Pereira, 2002; Paulo et al., 2003a).
Guttman (1998) compared the frequency of extreme
drought months identified by the PDSI and by the SPI
concluding that the PDSI overestimates that frequency.
The theory of runs and the SPI were compared for Alentejo,
Portugal (Paulo et al., 2003a) and have shown that the
theory of runs may underestimate the frequency of
droughts. The above-referred three main indices are analyzed and compared in this paper. The analyses were per-

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A. Paulo and L. Pereira

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Figure 1. Characteristics of local drought events with the theory of

runs

formed after testing all data sets used for quality. The randomness of the annual data sets was investigated through
tests for homogeneity, absence of trends and autocorrelation
using a set of non-parametric tests (Helsel and Hirsch, 1992).
Theory of Runs
A run is a succession of the same kind of observations
preceded and succeeded by one or more observations of
different kind. The theory of runs is based on the choice
of a critical threshold level, yc (Guerrero-Salazar and
Yevjevich, 1975). Considering a discrete time series, x1,
x2, , xi,, xn, a negative run occurs when xi is consecutively less than yc, during one or more time intervals. Negative runs in rainfall time series are related to drought and
the difference between yc and xt is referred as a deficit. A
run can be characterized by its length (L), its cumulated
deficit (D), and its intensity (I), as described in Figure 1.
Therefore, any drought, s, can be characterized by its:
duration, L(s), the number of consecutive time intervals
where rainfall remains below the critical level; cumulated
deficit, D(s), the sum of consecutive deficits, and; intensity, I(s), given by the ratio D(s)/L(s).
The number of droughts and their characteristics depend upon the choice of the critical rainfall threshold level
yc. After analyzing several threshold levels, the threshold
yc = , i.e. a rainfall below the mean by the quantity
corresponding to the standard deviation, was selected for
the case study presented herein.
The Palmer Drought Severity Index
The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was developed by Palmer (1965) as a meteorological index to
identify and assess the severity of a drought event. The
purpose of the index was to measure the departure of
the moisture supply. The Palmer Index has been used
since 1965 as a useful tool in drought assessment.
The PDSI is derived from the soil water balance, usually on a monthly basis. The input data consist of historical
records of precipitation and evapotranspiration, the latter
computed either by the Thornthwaites method, or by any
other method like the FAO-PM method (Allen et al., 1998)
adopted in this research. The soil is conceptually divided
in two layers: the surface layer, where the total available

water (TAW) is 25 mm, and an underlying layer where

TAW depends upon the average regional soil characteristics. It is roughly assumed that evapotranspiration depletes
the water from the surface layer at its potential rate, and
the water extraction from the underlying layer begins after all water has been removed from the surface layer.
When precipitation exceeds the potential evapotranspiration, the soil water recharge begins in the surface layer,
but it only starts in the subsurface layer when that upper
layer is already replenished. Runoff takes place only when
both layers have reached the field capacity.
The computation of the PDSI for each time interval i
is based on the moisture anomaly, zi, obtained by multiplying the moisture departure di by the climatic characteristic
kj of the current month j:

zi = k j d i

(1)

The moisture departure di is the deviation between

the actual precipitation, Pi, and the amount of precipitation
that might occur given the average conditions of the climate, Pi , that is defined by Palmer (1965) as the precipitation climatically appropriate for existing conditions. di is
computed as:
d i = Pi Pi = Pi ( j ETPi + j PRi + j PROi j PLi ) (2)

where ETPi is potential evapotranspiration, PRi is potential recharge of soil moisture, PROi is potential runoff and
PLi is potential soil moisture loss, all referring to the time
interval i. The coefficients j, j, j, and j are the ratios
between the average of each of the actual values (ET, R,
RO, and L) to the average of the corresponding potential
values (ETP, PR, PRO, and PL) over a calibration period.
Their subscript j refers to the month of the year. These
coefficients are called water balance coefficients and they
were conceived to adjust the potential values according to
monthly changes.
There are three intermediate indices, X1, X2 and X3
relative to the severity of a wet spell that may or may not
be developing, the severity of a dry spell that may or may
not be developing, and the severity of the current spell,
respectively. These indices are computed at each interval
i from the following recursive equation:
X i = 0.897 X i 1 + zi / 3

(3)

The actual PDSI, X, is chosen from one of the three

indices according to some rules, using a backtracking procedure. The classification of the PDSI values (Palmer,
1965) is displayed in Table 2.
The calibration period used to obtain the water balance coefficients for the PDSI is coincident with the period of analysis. However, the initial soil water content in
both soil layers and the initial values of X1, X2, and X3
influence the results over a relatively large period, so it is
then recommended to discard several months of initial
computations to avoid this problem. In the present study,
those initial soil water conditions were estimated from re-

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Drought Concepts and Characterization:

Comparing Drought Indices Applied at Local and Regional Scales
Table 2. Classification of PDSI values and categories

PDSI values

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4.00
3.00 to
2.00 to
1.00 to
0.50 to
0.49 to
0.50 to
1.00 to
2.00 to
3.00 to
4.00

3.99
2.99
1.99
0.99
0.49
0.99
1.99
2.99
3.99

41

Table 3. Classification of SPI values and indicative time in category

Palmer wet and dry categories

SPI values

Drought category

Time in category

Extremely wet
Very wet
Moderately wet
Slightly wet
Incipient wet spell
Near Normal
Incipient drought
Mild Drought
Moderate drought
Severe drought
Extreme drought

0 to 0.99
1.00 to 1.49
-1.50 to 1.99
2.00
Total

Mild drought
Moderate drought
Severe drought
Extreme drought

34.0%
9.2%
4.4%
2.3%
50.0%

sults obtained for the SPI, which were previously computed using precipitation data sets starting by 1932 (Paulo
et al., 2003a). Care is therefore required to select the values for the initial soil moisture.
Some limitations of the PDSI were pointed out by Alley (1984), namely the arbitrary rules to quantify the intensity, the beginning and the end of a drought event and
the backtracking procedure to select the drought index.
Limitations on the use of PDSI to Mediterranean regions
have been shown by Cancelliere et al. (1996), therefore it
was required to perform an appropriate analysis for its
application in southern Portugal and compare it with other
indices. A former study (Paulo et al., 2003b) identified some
limitations but demonstrated the robustness of the PDSI.
The severity of droughts by the PDSI show it to be sensitive to the soil water characteristics, particularly to the
value selected for the total available soil water (TAW),
and to the evapotranspiration computation procedure.
However, results have shown that the FAO-PM method
(Allen et al., 1998) could be appropriate and was therefore adopted in this study.
Standardized Precipitation Index
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was developed by McKee et al. (1993) with the purpose of identifying and monitoring local droughts. Multiple time scales
(McKee et al., 1995), from three-month to 24-month, may
be used. Shorter or longer time scales may reflect different lags in the response to precipitation anomalies. The
initiation of a drought event is identified by a backtracking
procedure: the drought event has its confirmation only when
in a series of continuously negative values of SPI the value
-1 or less is reached. A drought ends when the SPI becomes positive. Each drought event is then characterized
by its:
lead-time, which is the number of months within a
drought event before SPI 1 is reached;
duration, defined by the time between its beginning and
end;
severity, given by the monthly SPI value (Table 3);
magnitude, calculated by the sum of the SPI for every month
from the initiation to the end of each drought event; and

intensity, ratio between the magnitude and the duration

of the event.

The SPI is an index based on the probability distribution of precipitation. This index depends on the distribution
function, on the sample used to estimate the parameters
of the distribution, and on the method of estimation. The
two-parameter gamma distribution function is often used
but statistical goodness-of-fit tests are required before its
adoption. The entire period of records is generally used to
estimate the parameters of the gamma distribution function, e.g. by the method of maximum likelihood (Kite, 1988).
In practice, the computation of the SPI index (Edwards,
2000) in a given year i and calendar month j, for a k time
scale requires:
1. calculation of a cumulative precipitation series X ik, j
(i=1,,n) for that calendar month j, where each term
is the sum of the actual monthly precipitation with precipitation of the k-1 past consecutive months;
2. fitting of a gamma distribution function F(x) to the
monthly series;
3. computing the non-exceedence probabilities corresponding to the cumulative precipitation values;
4. transforming those probabilities into the values of a standard normal variable, which actually are the SPI values.
The SPI is a z score and represents an event departure from the mean, expressed in standard deviation units.
SPI is a normalized index in time and space. This feature
allows comparisons of SPI values between different locations. Drought severity is arbitrarily defined according to
the SPI values as listed in Table 3 (McKee et al., 1993),
where the expected time in each drought category was
based on an analysis of a large number of rainfall stations
across Colorado, USA. The percent of time in moderate,
severe, and extreme droughts correspond to those expected
from a normal distribution of the SPI.

Identification and Characterization of Regional

Droughts
Theory of Runs
Regional droughts may be identified and characterized using the same methods described for identification
of local droughts. Regional droughts may be studied using
a tool that allows to consider the space scale such as a
GIS tool for drought mapping as currently used in websites
on drought monitoring and forecasting (e.g. NDMC, 2005).

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42

A. Paulo and L. Pereira

Figure 2. Regional drought identification

A finer analysis may be produce using specific mathematical tools as used in Mediterranean regions (e.g. Rossi et
al., 1992; Alvarez and Estrela, 2003; Rossi and Cancelliere,
2003), including in Portugal (Santos, 1983; Santos et al.,
1988; Henriques and Santos, 1996). This approach is particularly useful for regional planning of water resources at
the river basin scale or within the boundaries of an administrative region, because when adopting this analytical
methodology, it is possible to understand how severe and
which area is affected. This information can be useful for
drought monitoring and drought contingency planning as a
component of a water resources plan aimed at a water
scarcity and drought prone region. In addition, this approach
may be particularly important in the national context because drought studies in Portugal have often focused regional droughts.
A regional drought is identified when a significant fraction of the total area of the region is under drought conditions or, in other words, when the sum of the areas Aj
affected by drought reaches a selected critical areal threshold Ac , as explained in Figure 2. The most common areal
threshold is Ac is 50 percent of the total area.
Applying the theory of runs, a regional drought may
be defined by its: (1) duration, the length of the consecutive time intervals in which drought affects an area that
equals or exceeds the pre-defined areal threshold; (2) cumulated areal deficit, the sum of the cumulated deficits at
each site, weighted by the corresponding areas of influence; (3) regional drought intensity, the ratio between the
cumulated areal deficit and the duration; (4) mean regional
coverage, the mean fraction of the area in the region that
is affected by drought.
Standardized Precipitation Index
The SPI may be extended to identify regional droughts
and the respective regional coverage and severity. At the
regional scale, a month is classified to be under drought if
the percent area of the region having SPI -1 during that
month exceeds the adopted areal threshold. A regional

drought event is assumed when the sum of the areas of

influence of all stations affected at least by mild drought
remains continuously above the areal threshold and, for
that period, the area where SPI-1 exceeds the areal
threshold in one or more months. For regional analysis,
the SPI may be computed with several time-scales.
The following regional drought characteristics (Paulo
and Pereira, 2002) are computed with the SPI:
Regional drought severity, which is obtained for each
month by combining the areal threshold and the local
classifications of SPI for the time scale used. For example, if the total area having an SPI classification of
severe drought equals or exceeds the areal threshold, then the region is classified under severe drought
during that period;
Regional drought duration, which is the number of consecutive months when a regional drought is classified
at least as mild drought, and that period includes one
or more months where drought is classified as moderate, severe, or extreme;
Monthly regional coverage under each drought category, which is the percentage of the region area affected by a drought having that severity. For example,
the regional coverage of a moderate drought is the fraction of the area covered by moderate drought, which is
computed from the sum of the areas of influence of all
stations where -1.5 < SPI -1;
Regional SPI (SPIreg) for each month, which is the
weighted average of the local SPI values using as
weights the areas of influence of each rainfall station.

The case study region of Alentejo, Portugal

The region of Alentejo, in the southern part of Portugal (latitude: 3720 to 3940 N; longitude: 655 to 850
W), has an area of 27x103 km2 (Figure 3) and is characterized by extensive agriculture, mainly cereals (wheat),

Figure 3. Location of the Alentejo region and identification of rainfall

stations utilized in the study

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Drought Concepts and Characterization:

Comparing Drought Indices Applied at Local and Regional Scales
100

Monthlly mean (mm)

80

60

40

20

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Oct

Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Figure 4. Monthly mean areal precipitation in Alentejo from 49 rainfall stations for 1931/1932 to 1998/1999

olive trees, vineyards, Mediterranean forests (cork oak

and green oak), and natural pastures. Rainfall is abundant
during the autumn-winter period and relatively abundant
by April and May, but extremely scarce during summer
(Figure 4). Summer crops can only be grown when irrigated, while the production of non-irrigated winter and
spring crops is strongly dependent upon the amount and
distribution of rainfall. The region is often stricken by
droughts and consequent water scarcity.
The quality of rainfall data of 76 rainfall stations over
the period 1931/1932 to 1998/1999 was checked (Paulo et
al., 2003a). Annual data sets were investigated for randomness, homogeneity and absence of trends. The
autocorrelation test (Kendall t), the Mann-Kendall trend
test and the homogeneity tests of Mann-Whitney for the
mean and the variance (Helsel and Hirsch, 1992) were
performed using software developed by Matias (1998) as
reported by Paulo et al. (2003a). Linear models using
maintenance of variance extension techniques were applied to estimate missing monthly data. These models preserve well the variance and extreme order statistics of the
reference site in the filled series (Hirsch, 1982; Vogel and
Stedinger, 1985). The reference site was selected according to the linear correlation coefficient between the station of interest and the other rainfall stations in the region.
Random and complete data sets from 49 rainfall stations were then used to compute monthly areal precipitation, weighting at-site precipitation by the respective areas
of influence obtained by Thiessen polygons. The location
of the studied rainfall stations is shown in Figure 3.

Local Droughts: Application of the Theory of

Runs, PDSI, and SPI
Comparing the Theory of Runs and the SPI
In the studies performed, the theory of runs and the
SPI were applied to three- and twelve-month time scales
but only results referring to the twelve-month time scale
are referred herein. The three-month time scale provides
good information for understanding how crops are negatively affected during selected growth periods. However,

43

contrarily to the twelve-month time scale, the gamma distribution function adopted for computing the SPI did not
pass satisfactorily the chosen goodness of fit tests (e.g.
Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Cramr-von Mises and AndersonDarling) for several data sets when using the three-month
time-scale.
When comparing the results for the theory of runs for
the critical threshold yc = with those for the SPI, it
was observed that both indices are compatible but yield a
different identification of droughts (Table 4), in a larger
number for the SPI. This reflects difficulties in appropriately selecting the critical rainfall threshold level yc when
droughts are identified with negative runs. Departing from
the mean by only a fraction of the standard deviation could
give better results but that fraction would be different from
a location to the other. Defining the critical threshold by
the median produces an exaggerated number of droughts
identified (Paulo et al., 2002). Moreover, the severity of
droughts using the theory of runs would require a subjective classification by combining the cumulative deficits and
the average intensity of droughts.
Because the SPI is obtained from cumulated values
referring to the month in analysis and the k-1 antecedent
months, it provides more continuous information on the
variation of dryness conditions in time and takes into consideration the lag in response to the identified lack of precipitation. Therefore, it produces information that may be
more consistent than that resulting from the theory of runs.
In addition, it does not require a subjective decision on
defining a threshold and the SPI severity classification is
clear and objective.
Comparing the PDSI and the SPI
The Palmer Index was computed with ET estimated
from both the Thornthwaite and the Penman-Monteith
equations for the locations referred in Figure 3. Three different soil types referring to total available water of 250,
200, and 150 mm were also used. The SPI was computed
for the time scales three-, six- and twelve-month. The
PDSI was compared with the SPI for the same locations
relative to the time period 1965-2000. Best results were
obtained when the PDSI was calculated with the ET Penman-Monteith method and the soil water characteristics
for TAW equal to 150 mm, and the SPI was computed
with the twelve-month time scale. Selected results for the
comparison are shown in Table 5.
The linear correlation coefficient between the PDSI
and the SPI is higher for the twelve-month time scale,
ranging from 0.814 in Beja to 0.765 in vora, denoting
that the PDSI has some built-in memory. Svoboda (2004)
compared the linear correlation between the PDSI and
the SPI computed in several time scales for Hilo, USA,
concluding that the highest value was achieved for the
nine-month time scale, around 0.85.
An example when the PDSI was computed with reference ET using the FAO Penman-Monteith equation

IWRA, Water International, Volume 31, Number 1, March 2006

44

A. Paulo and L. Pereira

Table 4. Comparing the local droughts identified for Alentejo using the theory of runs and the 12-month SPI for the period 1931/1932 to 1998/1999

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Theory of runs
# of years
# of
Mean
Station under
drought
cumulated
code
drought
events
deficit (mm)
16L03
17J01
17L02
17M01
18G01
18M01
19G02
19J03
19L01
19L02
19M01
19N01
20I01
20L01
20O01
21F01
21G02
21J02
21K01
21M01
21M02
22E01
22H01
22J01
23E01
23G01
24F01
24H01
24I01
24J03
24N01
25J02
25P01
26F01
26G01
26J01
26L01
27E01
27G01
27H01
27I01
27K01
28H01
28I01
29G01
29G02
30E01
30F01
30H03

11
11
12
14
11
8
13
11
11
10
11
13
12
13
7
12
12
7
10
9
12
13
10
12
9
11
13
10
9
13
12
10
10
11
12
11
11
13
12
10
10
8
12
10
10
10
9
12
12

10
10
11
12
10
7
11
9
10
9
7
11
11
10
6
10
10
7
7
8
10
12
6
10
7
10
11
9
8
9
9
8
8
8
10
8
8
12
10
9
8
8
10
9
8
8
8
11
10

73.2
87.8
81.1
66.1
80.7
98.4
97.3
102.7
70.0
86.0
97.0
81.0
66.6
64.5
30.2
103.7
84.1
128.0
94.1
94.8
89.3
91.7
146.2
75.6
107.9
73.5
70.8
71.2
102.1
108.0
67.6
90.5
78.3
120.4
74.2
87.7
87.3
80.2
99.8
85.9
123.3
76.0
98.6
90.7
134.1
115.9
113.3
174.4
102.5

Intensity
(mm/yr)
66.5
79.8
74.4
56.7
73.4
86.1
82.4
84.0
63.6
77.4
61.7
68.5
61.0
49.6
25.9
86.4
70.1
128.0
65.8
84.3
74.4
84.6
87.7
63.0
83.9
66.8
59.9
64.1
90.8
74.8
50.7
72.4
62.6
87.6
61.8
63.8
63.5
74.0
83.1
77.3
98.6
76.0
82.1
81.6
107.3
92.7
100.7
159.9
85.4

# of
drought
events

Average
duration
(months)

16
16
16
16
16
16
15
13
17
18
14
13
15
14
13
17
18
15
13
17
14
18
15
13
17
15
18
17
18
15
13
17
15
11
15
15
15
13
15
15
17
15
16
13
12
16
14
16
17

21.3
19.0
18.7
22.7
19.2
16.9
18.6
25.2
20.8
19.7
22.6
23.9
21.1
25.1
26.0
18.9
16.4
20.5
23.9
22.3
21.4
17.3
19.2
24.0
18.0
17.2
17.1
17.6
18.3
20.3
24.7
18.7
19.0
24.2
20.3
19.9
21.4
22.5
19.6
20.9
17.4
22.7
19.7
24.1
24.0
21.6
22.1
18.9
18.9

(Allen et al., 1998) and a soil with TAW equal to150 mm/
m is shown in Figure 5. Results for all locations are similar
and show a generally good agreement between these two
indices (Paulo et al., 2003b). However, because the SPI
requires only precipitation data while the PDSI needs other
weather data to compute ET, the SPI can be computed
for more locations, which constitutes a great advantage
over the PDSI. Meanwhile, since results obtained so far
show the appropriateness for using the SPI, stochastic

SPI
Average time (months) in
classes of severity
Extreme
Severe
Moderate
1.0
1.4
0.7
0.3
0.5
1.1
1.2
1.1
0.4
0.7
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.0
0.6
0.6
0.9
2.0
1.3
0.3
1.2
1.2
0.7
0.9
1.7
1.6
0.8
1.0
0.9
1.5
0.7
1.1
0.8
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.3
1.3
1.1
0.5
1.5
1.5
0.8
1.6
2.3
0.8
1.5
0.8
0.9

1.9
2.4
3.3
2.6
3.3
1.6
3.8
2.9
2.6
3.1
3.4
3.7
2.7
2.9
1.8
3.1
2.2
1.5
3.2
2.8
3.6
2.8
3.9
3.6
1.7
2.7
2.8
2.5
2.1
2.5
3.4
1.9
3.0
5.6
2.9
2.3
2.3
3.5
3.9
4.2
3.0
2.3
3.3
3.1
3.4
2.9
2.9
3.4
2.2

6.1
4.5
4.9
6.6
5.1
4.2
4.4
7.5
5.9
4.6
5.4
6.8
5.0
6.3
7.2
5.2
4.8
4.5
5.1
4.8
4.9
3.5
4.9
6.9
3.7
4.1
4.3
4.8
4.8
5.7
6.9
4.4
5.4
6.1
5.1
5.0
5.3
6.4
4.2
4.7
2.5
4.6
4.6
4.4
4.3
5.3
4.3
4.6
5.1

Mild

Lead
time
(months)

12.3
10.7
9.8
13.2
10.3
10.0
9.2
13.7
12.0
11.3
12.9
12.3
12.3
14.9
16.5
10.1
8.5
12.4
14.4
14.5
11.8
9.8
9.6
12.6
11.0
8.8
9.2
9.4
10.5
10.6
13.8
11.4
9.8
11.2
10.9
10.9
12.5
11.3
10.3
11.5
10.4
14.2
11.1
15.0
13.9
12.6
13.4
10.1
10.8

3.3
3.2
2.3
4.9
4.6
4.1
5.1
3.4
3.9
3.8
3.3
4.5
4.5
3.8
6.5
2.8
2.6
4.7
7.3
5.3
6.0
3.2
4.3
5.6
5.1
3.5
3.7
3.5
4.3
3.5
5.1
4.2
3.9
3.5
3.6
5.1
5.5
2.4
4.9
4.0
5.3
5.5
3.9
2.9
7.1
4.9
4.4
3.7
3.5

models are being applied to the SPI series aiming at predicting the drought class transitions, as exemplified in a
companion paper.
Results obtained for the three indices indicate the advantage for using more than one index when operational
identification of droughts is aimed. This is the option for
several drought watch systems as analyzed by Rossi
(2003).

IWRA, Water International, Volume 31, Number 1, March 2006

Drought Concepts and Characterization:

Comparing Drought Indices Applied at Local and Regional Scales

45

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Table 5. Comparing the number of months in the classes of no-drought (N), mild drought (1), moderate drought (2), severe drought (3), and
extremely severe drought (4) computed with the PDSI and the SPI for 3, 6, and 12-month time scales
PDSI
Severity
classe

SPI 3-month
SPI 6-month
# of
Severity classes and number of months in each class
months
N
1
2
3
4
N
1

N
1
2
3
4

261
83
55
18
15
432

N
1
2
3
4

268
94
40
21
9
432

N
1
2
3
4

245
94
63
24
6
432

N
1
2
3
4

257
92
56
23
4
432

Alvalade
213
37
12
4
0
266
Beja
214
27
19
3
0
263
Elvas
204
46
17
5
0
272
vora
214
23
19
8
2
266

SPI 12-month
2

30
27
21
4
6
88

16
13
14
5
3
51

1
3
3
2
2
11

1
3
5
3
4
16

229
25
5
1
0
260

22
44
17
3
1
87

8
10
19
4
3
44

0
4
10
7
2
23

2
0
4
3
9
18

216
26
8
0
0
250

36
48
16
1
0
101

6
8
21
3
0
38

2
1
10
9
0
22

1
0
0
5
15
21

42
36
7
13
4
102

9
18
7
1
3
38

2
8
5
2
2
19

1
5
2
2
0
10

228
39
12
0
0
279

34
32
13
4
0
83

5
18
14
6
0
43

0
5
1
6
8
20

1
0
0
5
1
7

218
37
0
0
0
255

44
50
19
0
0
113

6
7
13
8
0
34

0
0
8
7
5
20

0
0
0
6
4
10

27
28
21
4
0
80

9
10
11
6
2
38

5
7
6
6
3
27

0
3
8
3
1
15

213
30
9
0
0
252

28
47
18
3
0
96

2
14
21
7
0
44

2
2
9
13
5
31

0
1
6
1
1
9

190
29
9
0
0
228

52
53
19
0
0
124

3
11
25
8
1
48

0
1
8
12
2
23

0
0
2
4
3
9

27
33
15
7
1
83

10
21
13
6
0
50

4
7
5
1
0
17

2
8
4
1
1
16

203
18
8
1
0
230

45
40
17
8
2
112

8
25
16
10
0
59

0
9
12
3
2
26

1
0
3
1
0
5

194
28
3
0
0
225

58
47
11
1
0
117

5
12
19
8
0
44

0
5
23
11
3
42

0
0
0
3
1
4

Notes: N= No-drought; 1 = Mild drought; 2 = Moderate drought; 3 = Severe drought; 4 = Extreme drought

Regional Drought Analysis using the Theory of

Runs and the SPI
The identification and characterization of both local
and regional droughts using the theory of runs was accomplished with the utilization of the software REDIM
(Rossi and Cancelliere, 2003). The regional characterization
of droughts with the SPI was purposefully developed for
Alentejo (Paulo and Pereira, 2002; Paulo et al., 2002; 2003a,).

Table 6 shows the main characteristics of the droughts

identified by the theory of runs for the twelve-month time
scale covering at least 30 percent of the region. Results
include the initiation and end of the drought, the duration,
the areal coverage (percent area) and the intensity. Ten
droughts are identified for the period 1931/1932 to 1999/
2000 when the areal threshold is 30 percent of the area.
This number reduces to eight when that threshold is 50
percent of the area.
Results in Table 7 show that the number of regional
droughts identified with SPI for the same period 1932 to
Table 6. Characteristics of regional droughts using the theory of
runs for the 12-month time scale
Drought
numberInitiation

Figure 5. Comparing the PDSI computed with the ETP-FAO56 and

TAW=150 mm with the SPI computed for the time-scale 12-month at
Beja, for the period 1965-2000

End

1
1934/35
1934/35
2
1943/44
1944/45
3
1952/53
1952/53
4
1956/57
1956/57
5
1964/65
1964/65
6
1980/81
1980/81
7
1982/83
1982/83
8
1991/92
1991/92
9
1994/95
1994/95
10
1998/99
1998/99
Average drought characteristics

IWRA, Water International, Volume 31, Number 1, March 2006

Duration
Areal
Intensity
(year) coverage (%) (mm/year)
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1.1

60
84
39
41
51
98
97
82
92
84
73

34.6
92.9
28.4
9.3
19.2
90.8
94.6
45.2
77.9
72.9
56.6

46

A. Paulo and L. Pereira

Table 7. Characteristics of regional droughts with the SPI for 12-month time scale and the areal threshold Ac=50%

1
Nov-1933
2
Oct-1938
3
Dec-1943
4
Jan-1949
5
Apr-1953
6
Jan-1957
7
Dec-1964
8
Apr-1967
9
Jan-1971
10
Feb-1973
11
Feb-1980
12
Dec-1982
13
Apr-1991
14
Aug-1994
15
Nov-1998
Average
Time in category (%)

End
Jan-1936
Feb-1939
Apr-1946
Apr-1950
Jan-1955
Nov-1958
Oct-1965
Feb-1968
Jan-1972
Oct-1976
Oct-1982
Dec-1983
Oct-1993
Nov-1995
Sep-1999

27
5
29
16
22
23
11
11
13
45
33
13
31
16
11
20.4

1999 and the areal threshold of 50 percent is larger then

those identified with the theory of runs (Table 6). Similarly, the durations of regional droughts are also higher
with SPI-12 month. These differences are due to the concepts behind both methodologies. However, using this areal threshold, the percent of time in each drought category
is much less than those expected (Table 3).
When the theory of runs is used, the areal coverage is
just the average fraction of the total area in the region that
is affected by drought. With the SPI, the areal coverage
may be reported to different classifications of drought
periods: mild, moderate or more severe drought (i.e., in
the identification of regional droughts with the SPI, the
areal threshold is compared with the total area affected
by drought, regardless its severity). Therefore, the areal
coverage of moderate or more severe droughts is often
lower than 30 or 50 percent, the areal thresholds considered. The SPIreg may be used as an indicator of the severity of the drought. In this example, it ranges from -0.09 to
1.40 and from 0.52 to 1.40, when the areal thresholds
are 30 and 50 percent, respectively.
There is advantage in adopting the SPI relatively to
the theory of runs because the areal coverage of droughts
can then be related to the classes of severity. However,
contrarily to results presented in Table 7, it is required that
the resulting percent time in each drought class are compatible with those in Table 3, which correspond to the classification proposed by McKee et al., (1993). This fact
requires the search for areal thresholds different from those
generally used with the theory of runs. However, the criteria used to identify and classify the regional droughts
need further discussion as for the example below.
Two drought events identified with the theory of runs
having an areal coverage greater than 95 percent relative
to the hydrological years 1980/1981 and 1982/1983 (Table

12
2
13
5
2
1
6
1
2
7
2
6
12
5
5
5.4
10.1

1
0
6
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
11
5
4
7
5
2.7
5.1

0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0.2
0.4

42.1
36.0
61.9
37.8
21.2
21.3
42.6
17.5
15.7
28.0
44.2
71.8
48.1
64.4
77.5
42.0

-0.92
-0.72
-1.18
-0.75
-0.57
-0.60
-0.83
-0.57
-0.52
-0.72
-0.97
-1.28
-0.89
-1.18
-1.40
-0.87

6) are considered. One single and one long duration regional drought event is identified when the SPI is used for
Ac equal to 30 percent, or two drought events are considered when using Ac equal to 50 percent (Events 11 and 12
in Table 7). As shown in Figure 6, the areal coverage
changes with the severity of drought taken as threshold.
If a mild drought is considered, it starts by Feb 1980 with
a coverage of 70 percent of the region, reduces coverage
below 50 percent for only one month (Nov 1982) and returns immediately to 100 percent coverage the next month
100
90
80
70

Area (%)

Initiation

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-80

Jul-80

Jan-81

Jul-81

Jan-82

Jul-82

Jan-83

Jul-83

Jan-84

Jan-82

Jul-82

Jan-83

Jul-83

Jan-84

-3,00

-2,00

SPI-12m

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Drought
Number

Areal coverage
for moderate,
severe, and extreme
drought (%)
SPIreg

Number of monthsdrought severity, in more than 50%

of the area, is at least
Mild
Moderate
Severe
Extreme

-1,00

0,00

1,00

2,00
Jan-80

Jul-80

Jan-81

Jul-81

Date

Figure 6. Time evolution of the areal coverage relative to extreme

(
), extreme+severe (
), moderate+extreme+severe (
);
) drought categories and
and moderate+extreme+severe+mild (
) for the period Jan80-Mar84
the SPIreg (

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Drought Concepts and Characterization:

Comparing Drought Indices Applied at Local and Regional Scales

until falling below 50 percent by Jan 1984. When a moderate drought is considered, the area coverage starts to be
above 50 percent some months later, by Oct 1980, and
falls below this threshold between Nov 1981 and Dec 1982;
then it overcomes that threshold and falls below it by Nov
1983, thus corresponding to two separate droughts. However the SPIreg is always negative, except in the month of
Nov 1982, where it has the value of 0.09, indicating that a
recovery may have not been produced and, probably, only
one but long drought has occurred. Therefore, based on
the analysis exemplified above, variable areal thresholds
should be used with the SPI in relation to the severity of
drought: Mild, area affected by mild drought, 50 percent
total; Moderate, area affected by moderate drought, 40
percent total; Severe, area affected by severe drought, 30
percent total; Extreme, area affected by extreme drought,
20 percent total.
When adopting variable areal thresholds as above it
results that the percent time in mild, moderate, severe,
and extreme drought categories is respectively 29.5, 11.8,
6.9, and 1.6 percent (Paulo et al., 2003a), thus in agreement with the data produced by McKee et al. (1993) and
given in Table 3.

Conclusions
The analysis presented above confirms that drought
indices greatly help to identify and characterize local and
regional droughts. The indices relative to the theory of
runs and the SPI are easier to use because they require
rainfall data only, while the PDSI needs additional weather
data to estimate the evapotranspiration. Because such data
are available in only few locations, they are less useful for
a regional scale analysis.
When comparing the theory of runs with the SPI, the
latter seems to be more appropriate to characterize droughts
because, on the one hand, the theory of runs does not
provide an objective classification of severity and the selection of an appropriate critical threshold is also not objective. On the other hand, contrary to the theory of runs,
the SPI time scales are not simple computation time scales
but represent the memory of the precipitation observed
for the antecedent periods relative to the calculation month,
i.e., time scales may reflect different lags in the response
to precipitation anomalies. Adopting a regional SPI, the
SPIreg as proposed in this study, and variable areal thresholds, regional drought studies may be conducted using SPI
instead of the theory of runs, which was dominant in former
regional drought studies. This allows to overcome the limitations inherent to the theory of runs and to adopt at the
regional scale a more powerful drought index.
The PDSI is a robust index, which considers the
memory of past precipitation through the soil water balance, thus somewhat similarly to lag responses corresponding to the SPI time scales. However, the PDSI is influenced
by the soil TAW value selected for the water balance. A

47

TAW representing a soil not having too high or too low

water holding capacity could be adequate. Moreover, PDSI
results may be influenced by the ET computation method
used. In this application, the adoption of the FAO-PM method
has been shown to be appropriate, and the results are comparable to those of the twelve-month SPI. Results in this study
do not allow proving the superiority of SPI or PDSI over the
other.
The combined use of different indices, that may show
different behavior but may yield coherent results, is very
important to effectively identify the onset of droughts, their
evolution and dissipation. Moreover, the combination with
other indicators such as those derived from global circulation models and sea temperature anomalies, or those relative to actual and historical soil moisture conditions, stream
flow records, and reservoir levels may contribute to support
decisions in the context of water management, especially with
respect to early warning and drought management.

Acknowledgements
Data used in this study were made available by the
Institute for Water (INAG), Portugal. This study was funded
through the national project PEDIZA 1999.64.006326.1, and
is now part of the research contract INTERREG III B
MEDOC 2002-02-4.4-1-084.

About the Authors

Ana A. Paulo is an Assistant Professor in the Escola
Superior Agrria de Santarm, Instituto Politcnico de
Santarm, Portugal. She holds an Msc in Hydraulics and
Water Resources from Instituto Superior Tcnico,
Universidade Tcnica de Lisboa, 1992. She teaches Irrigation Techniques, Applied Statistics and Applied Mathematics. Her research interests include drought analysis,
water resources, crop-water modelling. Email: apaulo
@esa-santarem.pt or apaulo@isa.utl.pt.
Luis Santos Pereira is a full Professor in the Agricultural Engineering Institute, Technical University of
Lisbon, since 1980; he is a post-graduate in Hydrology,
Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne and holds a PhD
from the Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich. His main
research/expertise areas are: evapotranspiration and crop
water requirements, irrigation scheduling and irrigation
systems, including environmental and conservation issues,
and drought management and analysis; Email: lspereira
@isa.utl.pt
Discussions open until August 1, 2006.

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