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DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.133
OPINION
Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
134
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ZHAO Zong-Ci et al. / Are There Impacts of Urban Heat Island on Future Climate Change?
RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. Urban heat island effect decreases as time goes by due to more warming in rural
areas than in urban areas (Table 2).
Further calculations focused on heat island effects
in 11 regions of the world for December to February (DJF) and June to August (JJA) in the present
day (19862005) and 20802099 relative to 19862005
as projected by the model with RCP8.5, respectively
(Table 3). It is found that: 1) Whether in DJF or JJA
of the present day, urban heat island has a warming
effect as simulated by the model. In DJF for example, the lowest warming is in East Africa (0.94 C),
the highest warming is in Central Asia (2.26 C). Results for East Asia which are related to China show a
warming of 1.93 C in DJF and 1.29 C in JJA. 2) The
model with RCP8.5 projects a significant warming in
135
Table 2 Ensemble mean global (GL), land, urban (U), and rural (R) 2-m air temperature, and urban minus rural
temperature for 18501869 and 19862005 from the history simulations, and those results for three future time
periods from RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6 simulations [Oleson, 2012] (unit: C)
Scenario
History
RCP8.5
RCP4.5
RCP2.6
Period
18501869
19862005
20112030
20462065
20802099
20112030
20462065
20802099
20112030
20462065
20802099
GL
13.34
14.30
0.66
1.91
3.48
0.58
1.29
1.62
0.60
0.88
0.85
R
16.06
16.93
0.73
2.16
3.82
0.65
1.43
1.75
0.68
0.98
0.91
Ta
1.45
1.42
1.41
1.38
1.35
1.42
1.43
1.43
1.42
1.41
1.42
Note: Projections are relative to 19862005. Ta , Tmax , and Tmin are daily mean, daily maximum and minimum temperatures,
respectively
Table 3 Regional averages of 11 areas for the present (19862005) heat island (urban minus rural temperature),
climate change (land air temperature) and heat island change (20802099 minus 19862005)
in RCP8.5 simulation (unit: C) [Oleson, 2012]
Region
NW America
NE America
Central America
South America
EU
West Africa
Middle East
East Africa
Central Asia
East Asia
AU-NZ
Climate change
DJF
JJA
3.80
4.49
4.43
4.66
3.35
3.62
3.65
3.64
2.68
5.06
3.75
3.52
3.80
4.87
3.35
3.39
4.19
3.71
3.69
3.69
3.52
3.20
136
Table 4 Surface temperature bias and RMSE over the entire analysis domain at indicated times for simulations by
WRF nested to UCM or SLAB and observations (unit: C) [Kusaka et al., 2012]
City model
Bias
RMSE
Bias at 05:00
RMSE at 05:00
SLAB
0.6 (0.3)
2.5 (2.8)
2.0 (2.6)
3.1 (3.3)
UCM
0.4 (0.7)
2.1 (1.8)
0.1 (1.0)
2.0 (1.8)
Note: 05:00 and 15:00 are Japanese standard time; urban values are in the parentheses
Bias at 15:00
0.6 (1.8)
0.8 (0.4)
RMSE at 15:00
2.4 (2.8)
2.4 (2.0)