Understanding Climate

Variability in the
Context of Climate
Change:

An Integrated Approach to
Climate Risk Management

Meaghan Daly
A presentation prepared for
RIACSO
27 May 2010
 Climate Risk Management
Goals:
1. Promote sustainable development by reducing the
vulnerability associated with climate risk
2. Bridge climate change adaptation, risk reduction,
disaster management, and development sectors

CRM is not new…we’ve been making

climate sensitive decisions all along!!!
Weather and Climate

Weather: the day-to-day state of the

atmosphere and its short-term variation
(minutes to weeks)

Climate: pattern of weather over a long

time (30+ years)

Climate is what you expect (a hot summer)

Weather is what you get (a hot day, with an
afternoon thunderstorm)
Relating Weather and Climate

We cannot attribute any one weather

event to climate change

however…

We experience climate change through

cumulative weather events over time
Climate Change and Extremes

According to the IPCC:

•  in precip. intensity
•  in # of rainy days
•  in length of dry spells

Image: Ansel Adams

This adds up to more extreme events…

How We Predict
Weather and Climate

Weather:
current state of the atmosphere

Seasonal and Short-range Climate:

initial and projected sea-surface temperatures

Long-range Climate:
initial and projected composition of atmosphere
How We Predict
Climate and Weather

Perhaps the better question is…

Why does it matter?

Time-scales of Variability
and Change…

1. Inter-annual Variability (year to year)

2. Slowly Varying Climate (decades)
3. Changing Climate (decades to end-of-century)

These take place simultaneously…

 An example:
All 3 combined…

1% Climate Change

24% Decadal Variability

75% Interannual Variability

Graphs: L. Goddard Courtesy: L. Goddard

Focusing on climate change without also
thinking about climate variability…

Is like hitting the car in front of you while

thinking about swerving to avoid a pothole
further down the road…
 Thinking Across Time-scales

• Climate change projections CANNOT deliver

predictions of interannual or decadal variability

• Need integrated approach to management of

current variability and climate change

But there is no one prediction tool to

capture all scales of variability!
Using Information Across Time-scales…
more
spec
ific in
form
Climate change ation
increasing risks, trends,
more surprises
Seasonal forecasts
level of risk in coming
Decades, end of century months Weather forecasts
impending hazard

Year to year, next 6

months 10 days or less

more
time
to re
duce
risk

Slide courtesy of Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre

 Thank You!

mdaly@climatecentre.org