SyedMuhammadMurtasimShah

StudentID:47404124
POLI260
Due:21/03/2016
N.Elisgar

Topic3:InarecentarticleentitledIsHumanityGettingBetter?

LeifWenararguedthat
thebigpictureofpostwarhistoryshowssignificantimprovementsinnearlyall
indicatorsoflivedhumanexperienceashumanshavebecomegenerallymore
tolerant,morecooperativeandmorepeaceful.Doyouagree?Whyorwhynot?Identify
whatkindofevidencewouldyouneedtodecideonewayoranother,andthenbolster
yourargumentbyincorporatingevidencethatwouldbesthelpyoumakeyourcase,as
wellasconsideringfairlythestrongestevidenceagainstyourownargument.

Abstract

Humanitydoeslearn,painfullyandoftenonlyafterthousandsorevenmillions
havediedlikeagiantstarfishhurryingoverajaggedreef,withonlyprimitive
vision,slicingoffspinesonitsway,yetregeneratingasitgrowsandslowly
adaptingitsmotion.Thecurrentsarepushingthestarfishfaster,thereefsahead
aresharperhumanitymustbecomesharper,too.Mainly,humanitylearnsas
identitiesaltertobecomelessaggressiveandmoreopen,sothatnetworkscan
connectindividualcapacitiesmoreeffectivelyandjoinourresourcestogether.1

Ascriptfromthearticle,IsHumanityGettingBetter?,LeifWenaroftheNew
YorkTimesclearlydepictsstruggleofhumanityinsincethedawnoftime.Inmodern
day,averagelifespanofhumansarelongerthaneverbefore,whileliteracyrates
worldwidehaveneverbeenhigher.2 Thereductionofthoselivingundersubsistence
levelestimatedtobearoundadollaradayformostlessdevelopednationsis
astounding.

ThisresearchpapershalladdressthequestionposedbyWenar,usingempirical
evidenceduringthepostwarperiodtoshowstabilityofpeaceprovedtobethecogthat
shiftedhumanityforwardintoabetterera.Weshallindulgeourselvesintheefforts
madebyhumanitytobetterthemselvesthroughinnovation,acknowledgingthepositive

whilecritiquingthenegatives.

1
2

Wenar,Leif."IsHumanityGettingBetter?"TheNewYorkTimes.4416.Web.15Mar.2016.
W
enar,Leif."IsHumanityGettingBetter?"TheNewYorkTimes.4416.Web.15Mar.2016.

______________________________________________________________________

Technology
Sincethebeginningof20thcentury,globallifeexpectancyhasincreased118%,
infantmortalityhasdeclinedby81%,perpersonincomehasimprovedby403%(inreal
dollars),allwhilehumanpopulationhasincreasedbymorethan4xfrom1.7billionto
7.1billion3.Thisgraphdisplaysalltheimprovementsoflivedhumanexperiencesince
the20thcentury:

"TheWorldIsActuallyGettingBetterTheStartupGuideCreatingaBetterWorldThrough

Entrepreneurship."TheStartupGuideCreatingaBetterWorldThroughEntrepreneurship.Web.
20Mar.2016.

Mankindhasbeensteadilymovingforwardinthe20thcentury,withinfant
mortalityratesalmostnegligibleinmodernsocietyandlifeexpectancydoubling.4The
questionremains,however.Whatcanwecredittheseincrediblegainsto?Withwarand
turmoilbeingeverpresentbetween1900sand1980s,weturnourselvestoanother
factorTechnology.

Rapidadvancesintechnologythatimprovebothqualityoflivingaswellas
connectingmoreandmorehumansfromaroundtheglobewithatouchofabutton,a
flickofthefinger.Thecapacityforcreationandinnovationhasneverbeenhigher.In
1900s,womenofchildbearingagewerewellawarethateachpregnancymightkillthem.
Societywasscaredofthecommoncold,theflu,andothersuchsmallerworriesthatwe
nowtakeforgranted.5

Infantmortalitycanbedefinedasthenumberofinfantswhoarebornwhodonot
makeitpasttheageof1.Improvementsinmedicinesuchasimmunizationsand
antibioticsandbenefitsofincreasedfoodsuppliesanddistributionhavehelpedcut
downoninfantmortalityandincreaselifeexpectancy.6Pregnancyrelateddeathssuch

"TheWorldIsActuallyGettingBetterTheStartupGuideCreatingaBetterWorldThrough
Entrepreneurship."TheStartupGuideCreatingaBetterWorldThroughEntrepreneurship.Web.
20Mar.2016.
5
Noveck,BethSimone.WikiGovernment:HowTechnologyCanMakeGovernmentBetter,
DemocracyStronger,andCitizensMorePowerful.Washington,D.C.:BrookingsInstitution,
2009.Print.
6
"TheWorldIsActuallyGettingBetterTheStartupGuideCreatingaBetterWorldThrough
Entrepreneurship."TheStartupGuideCreatingaBetterWorldThroughEntrepreneurship.Web.
20Mar.2016.
4

ascongenitalmalformationsandperinatalconditionshavebeendramaticallyreduced
aswell.

PriortoWorldWarII,empiricalresearchoneconomicdevelopmentwas
significantlylacking.NobelPrizewinningeconomistSimonKuznetstressedthe
importanceindevelopingalternativeapproachestothemeasurementofnational
incomebyproduct,industry,factorshare,andsizeofincome.Hisstudyof
demographersworkonpopulationandlaborforceandtheircomponentsofchangeldto
amuchmorecomprehensiveunderstanding.DevelopingbasicprinciplesofPolitical
economy,StuartMillsPrinciplesofPoliticalEconomyproduction,allocationof
resources,incomedistribution,consumption,andexternalrelationswereheavily
studiedinordertofullyunderstandhowsocietyneededtoimprovetotakeitselftothe
nextlevel.7

Peacetheory
Onecanarguethatpostwarhistorycanbedefinedasaneraofpeace,or
relativepeacearoundtheglobe.TheargumentthatHumanityisgettingbetterand
prosperingbecauseofthepostwareraofpeaceisincomplete.Itisthepresenceof
peacethatallowshumanitytoexpandtheirhorizonsandcreateasocietywherethey
arearegenerallymoretolerant,morecooperative,andmorepeaceful.Mankindhas
movedawayfromfightingfortheirsurvivalandisnowfightingforideologies,inventions,

Arrow,Kenneth."PoliticalandEconomicEvaluationofSocialEffectsandExternalities."NBER
4.1(2014).Web.
7

andthewellbeingofoneanother.Peaceisavitalfactorforanysocietytofullydevelop
andfulfillitspotential.Itisthewaterthatnourishesthetinysaplingintoagrand,mature
treewithitsrootsplacedfirmlyintotheground.

Theeffectofwaronsocietycanbedevastating.Withmostresourcesnatural,
humanandcapitalbeinghoardedforthewarabroad,societywilters.Totakean
example,duringWorldWarII,TheUnitedStatessendtheirvalianttroopsacrossthe
pondtowardsthehazardousfrontlineacrossEurope.Historyhasshownuson
numerousoccasionsthatscarcityiseverpresentduringturbulenttimesespecially
duringsuchdiretimesofwar.Itisanecessityfornationstomanagetheirresources
wellduringwarsofattrition.Humanresourcessuchaslabordrewverythin,
consideringmostyoungmalesweredraftedforthewar.Capitalresourcessuchas
tools,equipment,machineswereverynecessarytoproducewarmaterials.Alongwith
naturalresourcesthatwereneededtocreatetheequipment,theAmericangovernment
wasburdenedtomakedifficultdecisionswhereshouldthebulkoftheresourcesgo,
thefrontlineorthehomelandfront.8 AttheendofthedaytheAmericanpeoplearethe
oneswhoboretheburden.

InMayof1942,theU.SOfficeofPriceAdministration(OPA)frozepriceson
practicallyalleverydaygoods,startingwithsugarandcoffee.9 TheUnitedStates

EconomicSpotter:ResourcesDuringWorldWarII."Web.18Mar.2016.

RationingontheUSHomefrontduringWWII."RationingontheUSHomefrontduringWWII.
Web.19Mar.2016.
9

governmentissuedarationingprogram,wherefamiliescouldbuyacertainamountof
gas,sugar,andothersuchproducts.Byrationing,governmentcouldmakesurethat
adequatesuppliesoffoodwouldbeavailableforthewareffort.10Scarcityofgoodslike
gasolineandrubberwereconsideredtobethehighestpriority.Itisdifficultforsocietyto
moveforwardwhetherinhealth,economics,educationduringturbulenttimes.Peace
isthevitalcogthatmovedhumanityforward,allowingfornationstointerchangeideas
andresourcesamongsteachother.Thisiswhythecreationofintergovernmental
organizationssuchastheUnitedNationswerepivotalinshiftingthetidetowards
peace.Areplacementfortheineffectiveleagueofnations,theorganizationwascreated
followingtheSecondWorldWartopreventanothersuchconflictandpushsociety
towardsabetterlight.

Ihavebeenfollowingtheresearchonpeacecreatinggroupsasithas
developedoverthelasttwentyyears[19751995].Thereisnowastrongand
consistentbodyofevidenceshowingthatthisinnovativeapproachprovidesa
simpleandcosteffectivesolutiontomanyofthesocialproblemswefacetoday.
Inmyview,thisresearchissostrongthatitdemandsactionfromthose
responsibleforgovernmentpolicy.11
HuwDixon,aProfessorofEconomicsinYorkUniversity,England,hasstrong
wordsasanadvocateofpeaceinsociety.Accordingtopeacetheorists,suchasthose

10

EconomicSpotter:ResourcesDuringWorldWarII."Web.18Mar.2016.

"PermanentPeace:WhatAretheBenefits?"PermanentPeace:WhatAretheBenefits?Web.
13Mar.2016.
11

ofpermanentpeace,warissaidtobegininthecollectiveconsciousnessofentire
societies.Acutepolitical,religiousandethnictensionsinthecollectiveconsciousness
fuelviolenceandsocialconflictincludingcrime,terrorismandwar.Byreducingthis
socialstress,largegroupsofpeacecreatingexpertshavebeenshowntoprofounding
benefitsocietyinareassuchaseconomicperformanceandgovernmentalperformance.
12

TheNegatives
Nolongerdoeshumanityfeartheancientcrisesofignorancewherethe
traumaticunknownstiflesmankind'sfightforsurvivalsimplybecausetheydonothave
theresourcesnortheknowledgetodefendthemselves.Theexampleinthearticleof
Londonin1665andtheoutbreakofthePlagueperfectlydepictsthesocietyfromwhich
wehavelongmaturedfrom.Inmodernday,problemsarisefromadifferentdemonnot
theunknown,butfromthecreationsofmankind.Thesamecapacityoftechnologythat
hasshiftedhumanityforwardalsoallowstocausesomeoftheterrorofthefuture
climatechange,unsustainablegrowth,depletedresources,Nuclearweaponspowerful
enoughtoceasetheexistenceoflifeasweknowit.13Thesenewcrises,crisesof
invention,areeverpresent,whilemorepeoplearelivinglonger,eatingbetter,and

"DoesEconomicGrowthRaiseLifeExpectancy?"EuromonitorInternationalBlogEconomic
GrowthandLifeExpectancyDoWealthierCountriesLiveLongerComments.2014.Web.22
Mar.2016.
12

13

Wenar,Leif."IsHumanityGettingBetter?"TheNewYorkTimes.4416.Web.15Mar.2016.

expandingtheirhorizonsbothphysicallyandmentally.AsWenarquestionsisitnot
poignantthatthesehumangoodsareengenderingamortaldanger?

Alongsideallofthepositivesofinnovationandinvention,therearemanyrisks
created.FromthetheWorldEconomicForumsGlobalRisksreportin2013,werequire
substantialfocusinordertonotdestabilizethegreatprogressourspecieshasbeen
making.Problemssuchasnuclearproliferationareeverpresent,withabout17,200
nuclearbombspresentintheworld.14 Itisunimaginabletothinkthatifacrisisthesize
ofaworldwarwereevertoariseinmodernday,itcouldspelltheendofhumanity.
ConsideringthehightensionsbetweennuclearnationssuchasPakistanandIndiaover
Kashmir,thisisalwaysapossibility.

Anotherveryrealpossibilityistheabuseofinformationflowoftheinternet.We
liveinthegoldenageofknowledgeflow,reachingnearlyeverycorneroftheplanet.
Computerprogrammers,orhackers,areabletocreatewallstohidevaluable
informationthatisnotavailableforthegeneralpublic.Inthesameterm,insuchan
interconnectedworld,hackingcanbeusedtohinderhumanprogress.Anexampleof
thepowerofsophisticatedcomputerhacking,theU.Sgovernmentpartiallydisableda
uraniumenrichmentfacilityinIranthroughtheuseofintroducingacomputervirus
knownasStuxnet.JointlybuiltAmericanIsraelicyberweapon,itwasdevelopedduring

14

"TheGlobalRisks2013DataExplorer."GlobalRisks2013.Web.23Mar.2016.

theObamaadministration,sabotagingIransnuclearprogramthroughalongseriesof
unfortunateaccidents.15
______________________________________________________________________

Conclusion
Itwouldbewisetoconsiderthelawofdiminishingmarginalreturnsforthe
growthofhumanityasoutputsincreasetherewillbeaninevitabletimeinoursociety
whereweslowlyregressandregressandstagnate.Throughtechnologyandpeacewe
mightbeabletoinnovateanddiplomaticallywiggleourwaythroughtheturbulenttimes
ofthefuture.Problemsofthepastseemsobenigninmodernday.ToquoteWenar
onceagain,

Manypeoplearestillbeyondruthlessinpursuingtheirowninterests,yet
interestsarenowmorepacificthantheyoncewere.Mostpeoplearoundyounowdo
notwanttokillyoutogetyourphone,tortureyouuntilyouprofesstheirreligion,orprey
onyourcredulityuntilyoujoinaracistgang.Somemaybutnotmany.Ifthese
profoundchangesforthebetterremainunseen,itislikelybecauseofwhatwenowtake
forgranted.

Thereisnodoubtthathumanityasawholehasmovedforwardfromtheera
depictedopeningstoryofthearticle,Londonin1665.Witheducationrateshigherthan
everbeforeandfreetradebloomingaroundtheworld,itiseasytoseethatthisisthe

15

"TheGlobalRisks2013DataExplorer."GlobalRisks2013.Web.23Mar.2016.

mostprosperoustimeinhumanity'slongexistence.Humanscannotrelax,theupward
trendsofgrowthmaycrestatanygivenmoment.Therearestillimmensechallengeswe
asasocietyneedtoovercome,climatechange,resourcescarcity,overpopulationto
nameafew.Thereareburdensofsuccessandprosperity,andweneedtobeheld
accountableforourmistakes.Thatdaymightarisesoon,andweneedtobeready.

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