Professional Documents
Culture Documents
September, 2016
Disclaimer
1 Company Overview
2 Pulp and Paper Market
3 Financial and Operational Highlights
4 Expansion Project Horizonte 2
5 Dividends
Cost reduction initiatives and
6 industry statistics
Agenda
Company Overview
4
Votorantim
S.A. (1)
BNDES
Participaes (1)
Free
Float (2)
29.42%
29.08%
41.50%
General
Meeting
Fiscal
Council
Board of
Directors
20% independent
members
Role of CEO and
chairman is split
Finance
Committee
Statutory
Audit
Committee
Personnel
and
Remuneratio
n Committee
Sustainability
Committee
Innovation
Committee
30%
independent
members
100%
independent
members
50%
independent
members
45%
independent
members
Policies approved
by the Board of Directors:
A Winning Player
Superior Asset Combination
Belmonte
Veracel
Caravelas
Portocel
Aracruz
Pulp capacity
million tons
5.300
Net revenues
US$ billion
2.859
thousand hectares
969
Planted area(1)
thousand hectares
568
US$ billion
3.029
2.10
Net Debt
Net Debt/EBITDA (in Dollars)(2)
Trs Lagoas
Jacare
Santos
Port Terminal
Pulp Unit
Source: Fibria
(1) Including 50% of Veracel, excluding forest partnership areas and forest bases linked to the sales of Losango and forest assets in Southern Bahia State; As of December 31, 2015.
(2) For covenants purposes, the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is calculated in Dollars.
* Veracel is a joint venture between Fibria (50%) and Stora Enso (50%) and the total capacity is 1,120 thousand ton/year
Region - 2Q16
N.
America
21%
Worldwide presence
Long-term relationships
Specialties
22%
Printing &
Writing
Tissue
Asia
33%
Europe
36%
Highlights
29%
49%
LatAm
10%
9%
10%
26%
30% 22%
8%
9%
21%
25% 26% 26% 27% 24% 23% 26% 26% 25% 20%
25% 33%
29%
8%
31% 31%
10%
9%
9%
8%
9%
12% 10%
21%
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Europe
North America
Asia
LatAm
Leadership Position
Industry Outlook(1)
Fiber Consumption
412 million t
59%
41%
Recycled Fiber
242 million t
Pulp
169 million t
18%
82%
Mechanical
30 million t
Chemical
140 million t
59%
41%
Integrated Mills
83 million t
Market Pulp
57 million t
54%
46%
Softwood/Other
26 million t
Hardwood
31 million t
30%
70%
Acacia/Other
9 million t
Eucalyptus
21 million t
75%
Other Eucalyptus
Pulp producers:
16 million t
25%
(1) Fiber Consumption, Recycled Fiber and Pulp: RISI | Market Pulp, Hardwood and Eucalyptus: PPPC Global 100 Report December 2015
Mutual value creation, with better servicing for both Companies customers base
10
750
265
Oji Nantong
Portucel Cacia
85
Sappi Cloquet
April Rizhao
Ence Huelva
Possible closures*
Net
BEKP demand growth**
500
200
Eldorado
30
265
CMPC Guaiba II
200
Eldorado
750
750
CMPC Guaiba II
400
Suzano Maranho
400
115
Portucel Cacia
30
40
Ence Navia
40
115
Sappi Cloquet
-65
April Rizhao
-315
Ence Huelva
-400 to -800
Unexpected Downtimes
1,415 to 1,815
1,095
-190
-315
-400
Net
BEKP demand growth**
Indonesia, China,
Uruguay and Brazil
1,450
1,232
12
802
784
781
750
738
735
726
721
709
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
Annual 2015
Consultants: Hawkins Wright, RISI and Brian McClay (published in the end 2014 for 2015 prices)
13
7.7 7.7
7.3
6.9
6.3
3.5
3.4 3.3 3.4
3.1
0.9
2.2
1.5 1.7
1.5
-0,3
-0.8
World
Euro Area
2012
USA
2013
2014
2015
China
2016
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, January 2016
14
400
6.0%
5.0%
3.8%
3.3%
200
0
-0.3%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-200
2012
2013
2014
BHKP
2015
BEKP
15
660
Klabin
Altri Celbi
Woodland
Verso Wickliffe
APRIL Kerinci
Possible closures*
Klabin
30
600
30
Altri Celbi
-40
-90
-55
-400 to -800
385 to 785
930
1,200
Woodland
-90
APRIL Kerinci
-120
Unexpected Downtime
-130
-120
Net
BEKP demand growth**
800
CMPC Guaiba II
800
CMPC Guaiba II
Net
BEKP demand growth**
1,090
1,200
8%
7%
23%
14%
4%
3%
10%
216kt
128kt
6%
8%
40kt
Total
26% 84kt
114kt
6%
64kt
North
America
(1)
1%
1%
4%
-6%
-1%
26kt
-7kt 12kt 11kt
China
Others
Western
Europe
BHKP
836
723 kt
kt
922
654 kt
kt
1%
-105 13
Total
North America
BEKP
(1)
2% 3%
102 93
-1% 0%
-66 -20
Western
Europe
BHKP
China
Others
BEKP
2015
2016
FORECAST
REALIZED
PREVIOUS
FORECAST
LATEST
FORECAST
LATEST
FORECAST
Woodfree
256
256
760
980
1,000
Tissue
1,390
1,278
1,365
965
568
Cartonboard
2,100
1,326
730
900
630
Total
3,746
2,860
2,855
2,845
2,198
17
1000
STRONG
Aracruz
Weighted average
technical age 21 years
900
Weighted average
technical age 12.3 years
2000
STRONG
800
700
1500
600
Veracel
Weighted average
capacity 1,350,000 t/a
Jacare
Trs Lagoas
1000
500
400
300
500
Weighted average
capacity 534,000 t/a
200
100
0
30
WEAK
25
0
20
15
10
Technical age, years
30 WEAK 25
20
15
10
Technical age, years
More than 6.6 million tons of capacity above 25 years and with annual capacity below 500,000 t/y.
18
-105
-315
-540
-445
-500
-645
Potential
conversions
to DP
-910
-1,085
-1,260
2006
2007
2008
-1,180
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016-2018 E (1)
As of September 2016 | 2016: -90kt Woodland (USA), -240 April Kerinci (Indonesia) | 2017: Resolute Calhoun: -40kt | 2017/2018: -275kt Arauco Valdivia (Chile)
19
1,130
1,105
2,075
2,290
4,915
3,420
15,275
Total: 30,210
BHKP (US$/t)
506
51
454
85
447
10
449
5
21
398
45
343
46
455
USA
369
Canada
437
China
353
Iberia
297
Chile/Uruguay
334
33
301
Indonesia
113
294
55
45
56
239
205
Brazil
366
9
20
87
40
62
WK
Interest
Capex
Income tax
SG&A
144
Source: Hawkins Wright (Price Forecast June 2016) and Fibrias 2Q16 Earnings Release -FX considered by the consultant at R$/US$ = 3.21. H2 cash cost was
estimated according to weighted average cost, after mill balance, converted at R$/US$=3.21. Includes energy sales.
20
1.000
2,0
Horizonte II
Eldorado
800
Rizhao
Trs
Lagoas
700
APP
Hainan
600
500
400
APP South
Sumatra(2)
Maranho
Santa F
Valdivia
1,6
1,4
Montes
del Plata Guaba II
Fray
Bentos
Mucuri
Veracel Nueva Aldea
1,8
1,2
Klabin
1,0
Chenming
Zhanjiang
Kerinci
PL3
900
0,8
APP Guangxi
300
0,6
Oji
Nantong
200
0,4
100
0,2
0,0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
(1) Source: Hawkins Wright , Poyry and Fibria Analysis. Pulp price estimates according to Hawkins Wright (Abr/16), Brian McClay (Jun/16) and RISI (Abr/16)
(2) Partially integrated production.
21
160
120
80
40
Jun-16
Nov-15
May-15
Oct-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Mar-13
Sep-12
Mar-12
Aug-11
Feb-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Dec-07
May-07
Nov-06
Apr-06
Oct-05
Apr-05
Sep-04
Mar-04
Sep-03
Feb-03
Aug-02
Jan-02
Jul-01
Jan-01
Jun-00
Dec-99
173
103
86
80
45
43
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Iron Ore
Soy Bean
Crude Oil
Sugar
23
35%
34%
27%
27%
26%
24%
23%
16%
14%
6%
WTI Crude
Oil
Sugar
Nickel
Iron Ore
Copper
Soy
Ibovespa
LME
Metals
Cattle
FX
BHKP
24
Exchange Rate
Average (R$/US$)
2.00
1.76
670
Fibria net pulp price
(US$/t)
EBITDA Margin
1.67
1.95
2.16
2.35
639
581
610
572
1,311
1,344
456
912
1,179
40%
29%
1,067
34%
1,133
36%
40%
3.70
3.44(1)
577
511(2)
1,951
2,135
1,758
53%
52%
3.33
582
39%
1,560
1,488
1,173
1,153
2011
2012
1,295
1,185
2013
2014
1,447
815
2010
2015
(1) According to Focus Report (Brazilian Central Bank September 2nd, 2016) I (2) 2016 market consensus
26
639
583
2Q15
1Q16
2Q16
May-June/16
583
2Q15
45
11
26
FX
Utilities
Results
Maintenance
Downtime
Wood
Specific
Consumption
Others
US$ 190/t
2Q16
US$ 189/t
Operational performance
27
Cash Production Cost in dollars saw a decrease over the past 7 years
264
281
242
231
234
220
186
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
181
Consistently
controlling the
cash
production
cost
2Q16
LTM
28
(29)
123
deferred
(135)
current
264
(188)
212
276
(98)
Adjusted
EBITDA
FX Debt
MtM
hedge
Net
Interest
Deprec.,
amortiz. and
depletion
Taxes
Others
(1)
Net
Income
Non-recurring effects
(1)
Includes other Exchange rate/monetary variations, other financial income/expenses and other operating income/expenses.
29
264
118
( 131 )
Adjusted
EBITDA
(1)
(2)
Capex
(ex-H2 project)
(5)
( 45 )
36
Net
Interest (2)
Working
Capital
Taxes
FCF
Not considering dividend payment and capex related to the Horizonte 2 project.
Impacted by semi-annual interest payments on the bonds and funding related to the Horizonte 2 project.
30
25.1%
22.8%
21.9%
9.2%
6.9%
5.7%
6.2%
2012
2013
2014
2015
Average
FX
(R$/US$)
2Q16
UDM
1.95
2.16
2.35
3.33
3.70
Average
Net Price
(US$)
581
610
561
586
557
21.3%
8.0%
3.4%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2T16
UDM
Average
FX
(R$/US$)
1.95
2.16
2.35
3.33
3.70
Average
Net Price
(US$)
581
610
561
586
557
31
Indebtdeness
Gross Debt and Cash Position (R$ million)
+ R$1.2 bn
2.23
1.95
9,015
Jun/15
Mar/16
Gross debt
9,722
2,897
Jun/15
+ R$1.8 bn
1.82
10,309
2,642
Jun/16
Cash
1.86
8,197
2,983
1,189
818
2.10
1.85
12,705
11,498
Mar/16
R$
3,029
Jun/16
US$
5.9
5.5
5.2
473
414
4.6
408
350
3.4
3.4
3.3
268
200
96
2009
4.6
143
2010
Cost
Averageof
costdebt
in US$ (% p.a.)
108
2011
141
78
2012
Interest Expense (Gross)
45
2013
39
2014
139
39
2015
41
2Q16 LTM
32
Liquidity
Liquidity(1) and Debt Amortization Schedule (US$ million)
1,477
Revolver
Export Prepayment
ECN
Voto IV
Finnvera
545
840
Cash on
hand(1)
631
536
932
BNDES
ACC/ACE
Bonds
ARC and Others
627
558
304
202
55
Liquidity
Capex H2 (2):
2016
2017
2018
788
911
85
2019
2020
2021
2022
179
27
2023
2024
2025
(1) Not including US$9 million related to MtM of hedging transactions. | (2) Financial execution of US$608 million capex until June 30th, 2016. Considering FX R$/US$ = 3.30.
0.3 - 2S16
0.6 - 2017
3Q15
3QT15
0.2
0.1 - 2S16
0.2 - 2017
0.3
0.1 - 2S16
0.1 - 2017
0.2
0.2
.
0,2 - 2S16
0,1 - 2017
0.3
0.1
2.6
0.9
0.4
Export
Prepayment
ARC
BNDES
FDCO
ECA
Working capital
release (2)
Total
33
Capital Structure: Fibria has achieved the lowest leverage ratio among
its Latin American peers
Net Debt/EBITDA (x)(1)
8,1
5.9
3.7
3.4
3.2
2.1
1.9
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Fibria
S&P
Moodys
Fitch
(1)
Suzano
Klabin
CMPC
Arauco
Eldorado
Fibria
Arauco
CMPC
Klabin
Suzano
BBB-/Stable
BBB-/Stable
BBB-/Stable
BB+/Estable
BB+/Stable
Ba1/Negative
Baa3/Stable
Baa3/Stable
Ba2/Stable
BBB-/Stable
BBB/Stable
BBB+/Stable
BBB-/Negative
BB+/Positive
34
Rating
Outlook
1.200
1.000
Stable
BBB-
800
600
BBB-
Stable
400
200
2010
2011
2012
Fibria 2020
2013
2014
Fibria 2021
2015
Fibria 2024
1093
261
261
290
BRAZIL
BRFOODS
GLOPAR
327
328
355
362
367
392
EMBRAER
FIBRIA
BRASKEM
KLABIN
VALE
SUZANO
450
GERDAU
519
PETROBRAS ELDORADO
35
CAPEX 2016
36
8.2
Pulp
Logistics
0.7
6,7
(0.5)
Horizonte 2
0.2
5.4
4.4
(1.0)
Maintenance
and others
2.1
2.1
Reported on
Jan. 31, 2016
Current
Capex Timetable
Pulp
logistics
Horizonte 2
Project
Total
Actual
2015
2016
Previous
0.7
100%
100%
Current
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.7
22%
61%
17%
100%
Previous
0.2
5.4
2.9
0.3
8.7
2%
62%
33%
3%
100%
Current
0.2
4.4
3.0
0.3
7.9
3%
56%
38%
4%
100%
Previous
0.2
6.1
2.9
0.3
9.4
2%
64%
31%
3%
100%
Current
0.2
4.6
3.4
0.4
8.6
2%
53%
40%
5%
100%
2017
2018
onwards
Total
0.7
38
Fibria is able to create value for its shareholders with capital discipline
BIO-ENERGY AND
PULP
INDUSTRY
CONSOLIDATION ?
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES
DIVIDENDS
Complementary to pulp
Portocel
BACK UP
40
Competitiveness
Commercial
positioning
Long-term growth
potential
42
Start-up: 4Q2017
Capacity: 1.95 million tons
8,150
Fibria
CMPC
RGE/APRIL
Suzano
APP
Eldorado
UPM
Stora Enso
Arauco
Cenibra
ENCE
Altri
IP
Marubeni
Mitsubishi
Oji
Mondi
Nippon Paper
Verso
Resolute
Georgia-Pacific
Portucel Soporcel
Lwart
Pulp Mill Holding
Domtar
Klabin
Others
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Current Capacity
New Capacity
43
37%
43%
19%
24%
36%
24%
8%
9%
(1) Considers 1Q16 last twelve months. | (2) Includes Klabins sales volume
44
660
5,188
2009
(1)The
5,231
2010
5,184
2011
5,299
2012
5,259
2013
5,274
2014
5,185
2015
2016
2017
7,940
8,050
8,150
8,150
8,150
1,740
1,850
1,950
1,950
1,950
900
900
900
900
900
5,300
5,300
5,300
5,300
5,300
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
volumes in 2016, 2017 and 2018 will depend on the learning curve of the plants. The agreement with Klabin may be renewed by mutual consent.
45
Startup
25% financial
execution
2016
2017
Acc. execution
up to 6M16
To be executed
until 2018
Total
2.0
5.9
7.9
46
Forestry Base
120,000 ha
H2:
187,000 ha
Total:
307,000 ha
Logistics
Mato Grosso
Brasilia
Gois
Mato
Grosso do
Sul
Port Terminal 32
48
Capex
Update for the current FX level
2.5
0.05
26%
0.65
2.4
0.10
0.45
1.80
1.84
Original
Revised
72%
BRL
EUR
4%
19%
77%
49
Capex
Flexibility in the Timetable, without changing the startup date
- R$800 million
8.7
7.9
56%
4.4
38%
3.0
4%
0.3
3%
0.2
Previous
Forecast
Current
Forecast (1)
US$ 2.4 bn
2015
2016
2017
2018
US$0.1 bn
US$1.3 bn
US$0.9 bn
US$0.1 bn
50
Funding
Cost and maturity
2Q16
H2
3.4%
2.1%
3.0%
4.1
5.8
4.5
2Q16 + H2
748
679
574
304
300
202
176
147
97
97
84
2016
2017
2018
BNDES
2019
Bond
2020
PPE
NCE
2021
2022
ACC/ACE
2023
CRA
2024
Finnvera
2025
Outros
2026
2027
FDCO
Total
2028
51
Funding
Sources US$ million
0.3 - 2S16
0.6 - 2017
3Q15
3QT15
0.1 - 2S16
0.2 - 2017
0.3
0.1 - 2S16
0.1 - 2017
0,2 - 2S16
0,1 - 2017
0.3
0.1
.
0.2
0.2
2.6
0.9
0.2
0.4
Export
Prepayment
ARC
BNDES
FDCO
ECA
Working capital
release (1)
Total
(1) Working capital to be released in 2016 and 2017 by the commercial agreement with Klabin. Main impacts over accounts payable and receivables.
52
April, 2016
Its robust performance should provide enough resources to fund the equity portion
of its new pulp mill, Horizonte 2, and would help it to reduce leverage towards the
end of 2017, when the new mill starts operations. We expect leverage metrics to
remain slightly under pressure this year due to the debt load from the investment. But
these metrics should gradually decline in 2017 and 2018.
Feb, 2016
Leverage to Temporarily Increase: Fitch projects net leverage to remain below 2.5x
during the construction of the Trs Lagoas mill, quickly declining to below 1.5x by the
end of 2018.
53
R$
US$
Pulp production/year
k tons
1,950
1,950
Expansion capex(1)
$ billion
7.9
2.4
Expansion capex(1)
$/t
4,052
1,228
Sustaining capex(2)
$/t
206
62
$/t
326
99
MWh
130
130
R$/US$
2.80
$/t
270-320
$/t
513
$/t
193-243
years
5.1-6.4
Energy surplus
Project approval FX
(1) Includes chemical leasing and investments in order to increase capacity to 1,950 kt/year (FX@3.30).
(2) Estimated sustaining capex in perpetuity (FX @ 3.30).
(3) Estimated weighted average cost, after mill balance. Includes energy sales (FX @3.21-3.30).
(4) Cash cost + freight + SG&A + Sustaining Capex + Interest + taxes (FX @ 3.30)
(5) 2016 market consensus.
54
Final Remarks
Economies of scale
Synergies with current operations
Wood availability and low distance from forest to mill
Fibrias total energy surplus to be increased by 130 MWh
Cash cost competitiveness
Meet customers demand growth
Attractive returns even in adverse scenarios of pulp price and BRL
Solid financial profile
55
Dividends
56
Corporate Governance
Related Parties
Transactions
Anti-Corruption
Information Disclosure
Securities Trading
Antitrust
Genetically Modified Eucalyptus
Dividend Policy
Sustainability
57
58
Dividends
2015
April 28, 2015
OGM: Dividend
Dividend Payment of
distribution approval: US$49 million
minimum compulsory
+ additional
Dividend Policy
Approval
Dec. 9, 2015
2016
April 27, 2016
Mid-May, 2016
OGM approved
Dividend payment of
dividend distribution
US$80 million.
of US$80 million(1)
(1.1% of dividend yield
as of Dec, 31, 2015).
Mid-November, 2016
Extraordinary
dividend
appraisal
Mid-December, 2016
Extraordinary
dividend payment
(if approved)
59
2,50
2.30
2,000
1.95
2,00
2.10
1.86
1.78
1,50
1.58
1,00
0,50
304
148
0,00
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
Dividends (R$ million)
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
Leverage (x)
60
Considering
Market Cap
as of
December,
31st, 2015
61
Dividend Yield
(%)
Cesp
4.85
20.78
Fibria
3.88
11.60
Santander BR
0.46
9.81
Qualicorp
1.89
7.02
MRV
0.39
5.55
BBSeguridade
1.68
5.53
TelefBrasil
2.73
5.32
Natura
1.48
4.67
Braskem
0.61
4.64
CSN
0.41
4.48
Source: Economtica the dividend yield calculation considers share price at the beginning of 2015
62
Structural Competitiveness
3. Industrial
64
Peaking in 2016;
% Planting
68% 75%
67%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
62
Despite the higher forest to mill distance, the wood from Losango is less expensive than the
available wood from around Esprito Santo and Bahia States
63
40%
36%
33%
35%
30%
25%
20%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
10%
10%
6%
5%
0%
01 - Diamond
02 - Gold
03 - Silver
04 - Bronze
05 - Lead
Possible Restrictions
Declivity
0: Higher than 35
1: Btw 24and 35
2: Btw 0 and 24
Conservation
Areas
CAs(1)
0: Within
1: Within EPA(2) and
EBZ(3)
2: Out of EPAs and
EBZ
Municipal
Restrictions
0: Total restrictions
1: Partial restrictions
2: No restrictions
Possible Impediments
EPA Altitude
Urban Zones
0: Higher than
1800m
1: Lower than
1800m
0: Urban Zones
1: Outside urban
areas
Remnants of
native
vegetation
0: Remnants areas
1: Outside remnants
areas
Possible combinations
X 0, 1 and 2, removed;
(1)
(2)
(3)
Conservation Areas
Envionmental Protection Areas
Environmental Buffer Zones
4 e 8, high potential
65
Silviculture
Harvest
Roads
Transportation
66
67
Timber transportation
68
Startup: Jan/2017
69
Structural cost reduction of R$170 million per year (Capex + Opex) in 2020;
Seek opportunities for purchase / lease of more attractive areas, divest from unattractive land/forest, as well as the implementation of
technologies that will lead us to the structural cost
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
20%
30%
10%
0%
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
70
Regulatory Standard 13 (Boiler and Pressure Vessel Inspection) extended the maximum period between
recovery boiler inspections from 12 to 15 months.
Fibria was the first company to use the extended period benefit
NPV: R$385 million
71
00
Effluent+Sludge
Aeration Tank
Sludge Dryer
Biological
Sludge Tank
00
Biomass
Boiler
Biomass Pile
72
40.000
35.000
000 ton
1999
2009
2019
Growth
19992009
Growth
20092019
Hardwood
16.3
24.8
33.8
52%
36%
Eucalyptus
6.0
15.9
24.1
165%
52%
Softwood
19.0
21.4
24.9
13%
16%
Market Pulp
35.3
46.2
58.7
30%
27%
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
Hardwood
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
Softwood
Source: PPPC reports. Excludes Sulphite and UKP market pulp (Sept./15)
76
(000s t)
2.215
(million t)
2.368
1Q15
1.095
1Q16
1.292
(kg/person/year)
40
Annual Growth
Rate +3.7%
35
30
25
20
15
503 453
BHKP Total
530
525
Latin
Indonesia Others(2)
America (1)
10
47 49
40 43
USA
Canada
Western
Europe
5
0
(1) includes South Africa and New Zealand. | (2) Includes China, Japan, Malaysia, Russia, Thailand and Vietnam.
(million t)
10%
10%
12%
22%
21%
23%
23%
25%
12
14%
6
4
5%
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Eucalyptus
Hardwood
(Kg/capita/year)
Total
25
10
10%
(1)
(2)
(3)
Japan
LatAm
14
24%
15%
E.Europe
Middle East
17%
20%
W.Europe
Asia FE
Oceania
16
15
11
6
5
1
N.
West Japan Oceania East LatAm
America Europe
Europe
China
Africa
77
250
234
200
150
100
74
50
China GDP
jun-16
mar-16
dez-15
set-15
jun-15
mar-15
dez-14
set-14
jun-14
mar-14
dez-13
set-13
jun-13
mar-13
dez-12
set-12
jun-12
mar-12
dez-11
set-11
jun-11
mar-11
dez-10
set-10
jun-10
mar-10
dez-09
set-09
Eucalyptus Shipments
78
Commodities Differentiation
China GDP breakdown
8%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
44%
47%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
46%
47%
45%
45%
49%
49%
48%
49%
49%
50%
50%
52%
51%
53%
53%
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Consumption
Investment
Net Exports
Soybeans
Wheat
Crude oil
Iron ore
Sugar
BHKP
248
201
194
172
152
124
115
100
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
79
Developed Markets
2020E
2019E
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
99,977
2012
2011
2010
2009
109,758
2008
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
P&W
Consumption
(000 tons)(1)
2007
117,611
103,286
Emerging Markets
Developed Markets
2020E
2019E
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Tissue
Consumption
(000 tons)(1)
2000
20,979
Emerging Markets
Source: RISI
80
8%
(1)
19%
3,787kt
3%
1,980 kt
6%
7%
387 kt
Total
(1)
North America
758 kt
662 kt
Western Europe
China
Others
81
mai-10
jun-10
jul-10
ago-10
set-10
out-10
out-10
nov-10
dez-10
jan-11
fev-11
mar-11
abr-11
mai-11
jun-11
jul-11
ago-11
set-11
out-11
nov-11
dez-11
jan-12
fev-12
mar-12
abr-12
mai-12
jun-12
jul-12
ago-12
set-12
out-12
nov-12
dez-12
jan-13
fev-13
mar-13
abr-13
mai-13
jun-13
jul-13
ago-13
set-13
out-13
nov-13
dez-13
jan-14
fev-14
mar-14
abr-14
mai-14
jun-14
jul-14
ago-14
set-14
out-14
nov-14
dez-14
jan-15
fev-15
mar-15
abr-15
mai-15
jun-15
jul-15
ago-15
set-15
out-15
nov-15
dez-15
jan-16
fev-16
mar-16
abr-16
mai-16
jun-16
jul-16
jul-16
900
900
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
2010
average:
250 ktons
2011
Average
379 ktons
2012
Average
370 ktons
2013
Average
439 ktons
2014
Average
504 ktons
2015
Average
538 ktons
(000s t)
2016
Average
602 ktons
82
Cost position
of marginal
producer
Source: Pyry.
83
3T16
125
3,32
3,31
6,45
4T16
295
3,40
3,36
6,62
1T17
216
3,49
3,52
5,80
2T17
174
3,56
3,57
6,22
3T17
135
3,64
3,64
7,17
4T17
190
3,71
3,67
7,12
1T18
105
3,78
3,62
5,50
2T18
45
3,85
3,64
5,73
Notional (Total):
US$ 1,285 million
84
317
225
194
125
84
77
113
111
53
29
103
130
158
118
112
51
4
-7
-77
3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
EBITDA Margin
33%
28%
30%
37%
37%
41%
39%
39%
41%
42%
41%
35%
35%
45%
50%
50%
56%
54%
52%
43%
1.77
1.96
2.03
2.06
2.00
2.07
2.29
2.27
2.37
2.23
2.27
2.55
2.87
3.07
3.54
3.84
3.90
3.51
Average FX
1.63
1.80
85
Maturity
2018
Undefined
----------
----------
(+/-)(e) Other
----------
----------
state (net)
Undefined
- Balance up to June/16: US$ 184 million (base)
----------
----------
Balance June/2016:
-PIS/COFINS: US$ 202 million
-Advanced tax payment (IR and CSLL): US$ 281 million
- Reintegra: US$ 27 million
Undefined
Cash Tax
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1S16
US$ 9 million
US$ 2 million
US$ 8 million
US$ 14 million
US$ 12 million
US$ 23 million
US$ 7 million
86