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124 J. R. Cox
influence, i.e., how specific communicative efforts are related to expected outcomes
or effects within a system of power.
I would like to pursue this line of inquiry and argue that the neglect of strategic
alignments in recent climate communication campaigns too often have caused such
campaigns to be non-adaptive at the scale and/or urgency required by the
complexities of climate change. Id like to illustrate this by describing what I believe
are limits to the usual assumptions about mobilization in public will campaigns
(Salmon, Post, & Christensen, 2003), particularly as these become our models for
climate change communication.
I also want to describe the thinking in one climate campaign that appears to have
achieved an alignment between its communicative efforts and the potential of these
to influence subsequent events. Specifically, by examining the Sierra Clubs Beyond
Coal (2009) initiative, I want to suggest a view of the strategic as a heuristic or mode
of analysis for identifying the sites or openings within a network of contingent
relationships and the potential of certain communicative efforts to interrupt or
leverage change within such a network.
Mobilization and Public Will Campaigns
It may be helpful, initially, to distinguish climate change communication that aims to
influence policy or system behavior from that aimed at changing individual,
voluntaristic behaviors*for example, campaigns encouraging us to recycle or install
compact fluorescent light bulbs. While both employ a range of communicative efforts
(e.g., framing), the latter traditionally succeed when a targeted population alters its
personal behavior in a desired way. With the former*campaigns to alter policy
behavior*changes in audiences attitudes and/or behaviors are a strategic condition of
a wider objective, i.e., mobilized constituencies, themselves, are pivotal in influencing
a wider chain of events or outcomes at the policy or system level.
The assumption of a meditative, strategic role of public audiences is the defining
characteristic of what Salmon et al. (2003, p. 4) have called public will campaigns.
They distinguish these as organized, strategic initiatives designed to legitimize and
garner [mobilize] public support . . . as a mechanism of achieving . . . change. They
are strategic because the initiatives used*agenda building, framing, social marketing,
etc.*are organized to produce a series of wider effects. Indeed, such campaigns are
defined this way precisely because they mobilize the newly educated public will in
ways that align with wider effects and an outcome beyond personal behavior-change.
I believe recent scholarship in climate communication (e.g., Moser, in press; Moser
& Dilling, 2007) implicitly assumes a similar meditative, strategic function as the
public will campaign approach. I would argue, however, that such communication*
at least, as often conceived*is non-adaptive at the scale and the timetable required to
address the complexities of climate science and energy policy. This is particularly the
case in changes required in carbon economies of energy production, pricing, and
distribution, as well as the regulatory and ideological apparatuses, and sunk carbon
costs (Brulle & Jenkins, 2006, p. 84) which underpin these systems. As a
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126 J. R. Cox
Afterward, McKibben (2009, p. xiv) claimed, the days demonstrations worked, that
is, Our demand*80 percent reductions by 2050*had been radical when we
began . . . [And although] we hadnt succeeded yet . . . wed helped jumpstart a
movement. This would have been a major achievement, indeed, if a single days
events helped jumpstart a movement or built a political constituency in the USA
for serious action on climate change. But did it?
I was fortunate to have access to analyses from a team led by Danielle Endres et al.
(2009) that interviewed participants and that tracked the aftermath of the Step It Up
rallies. The results were not encouraging. Although the days events were creative and
the participants enthusiastic, little happened afterwards. Organizers posted photos of
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themselves on Step It Ups website, and mainstream media and blogs like Grist.org
carried favorable reports the following day. The Endres et al. team, nevertheless,
reported that, despite generally positive coverage, it is doubtful that many viewers
and readers perceived SIU actions as a national protest of movement proportions
(Prelli, 2009, p. 85).
Although the original Step It Up team subsequently launched another decentralized initiative (350.org), the days following April 14 showed little or no political
follow-through at the policy level, the original goal of the days events. The emails,
blog posts, and photos did little to prompt the Congress to take up legislation on
climate change. Although the figure of 80% gained in popular discourse around this
time, as Prelli (2009, p. 92) noted in the days afterward, it seems doubtful that
congressional leaders were influenced, let alone compelled, by SIUs nationwide
action to adopt the SIU standard or take positions on the climate-change issue that
they otherwise would not have taken.
So, what happened? According to the public will model, the Step It Up initiative
appeared to do many things right: organizers mobilized thousands of participants at
rallies, concerts, and exhibits; and they communicated a simple message: tell
Congress to Step it Up by reducing 80% by 2050! As McKibben (2009, p. xvi)
said, the days strategy played out extraordinarily well. Participants believed they
were sending a message. We began with the image in our minds of pictures
streaming in from iconic places around America, and so it happened (McKibben,
2009, p. xvii).
The implicit, strategic assumption seemed to be that, with news (and images) of
enthusiastic and inspiring citizens sounding an alarm, more people would became
informed and would*consistent with a democratic polity*rise up and demand that
elected officials take necessary steps to protect our life-sustaining planet. In fact, this
turned out to be the assumption of many at the Step It Up events. For example, one
participant at the Seattle event told the Endres et al. team that holding up her
bamboo pole, visually illustrating the rise in sea levels, help people see what is
happening . . . [and] more and more awareness will lead to action (quoted in Sprain,
Norton, & Milstein, 2009, p. 290). Another participant at the Boston Common rally
believed, Just having all these people here means that the politicians cant ignore it
(quoted in Prelli, 2009, p. 90). Others expressed hope that, the people, like the local
politicians and the national politicians, actually do something, while another
confessed, I dont know how that happens, but I guess through everything*politics
and art and all that. Eventually, people will take action and do something about it
(quoted in Prelli, 2009, p. 91).
Such assumptions, of course, clash with other research suggesting that this is not
necessarily the case; politically appropriate behavior doesnt always follow from
environmental awareness. In a national study, Leiserowitz (2007, p. 44), for example,
found, Large majorities of Americans believe that global warming is real and
consider it a serious problem, yet global warming remains a low priority . . . and lacks
a sense of urgency for them. Orr (1992) once compared this conundrum to a
cartoon that showed scientists puzzling over how to balance an equation. One
128 J. R. Cox
scientist inserted, in the middle of the equation, then a miracle occurs (emphasis
added; quoted in Orr, 1992, p. 61). Orr (1992, p. 61) commented, Most strategies of
social change have similar dependence on the miraculous. Torgenson (1999, p. 22)
has argued that such a dependence is often true of environmental strategies
particularly, that is, the belief that as problems grow worse, more and more people
will be moved to join the green cause, thus enhancing its power and its chance of
making a real difference.
I believe, therefore, that the fragments of strategy (Orr, 1992, p. 61) in recent
mobilization initiatives such as Step It Up invite us to rethink climate change
communication at the scale of systems and from a heuristic of contingency that
allows us to identify expected consequences more strategically, i.e., as mobilization
that enables a certain end. Id like to offer some very tentative theses on such a
heuristic, and illustrate these in the context of an ongoing campaign that addresses
energy and climate change.
Beyond Coal: A Campaign to Leverage Capital
Burning coal to generate power has until recently been the source of over half of the
electricity in the USA. Globally, coal-burning plants are also one of the major sources
of carbon dioxide, a leading contributor to climate change. Since 2007, a growing
number of citizens, community activists, and environmental groups have sought to
defeat or delay the construction and/or operating permits for new coal-burning
power plants in the USA. The Sierra Club has taken a lead in these efforts, and its
Beyond Coal campaign illustrates the idea of a campaigns strategic alignment of
mobilization and its mode of influence or leverage that can enable wider outcomes or
effects (Beyond Coal).
The idea of leverage, of course, arises from Archimedes ancient claim, Give me a
place to stand and a lever long enough and I will move the world, i.e., the application
of a certain kind of action (assuming a place to stand) produces a dynamic that can
move*or leverage*a much larger force. As a discourse on power, then, we might say
that Archimedes principle of leverage requires two conditions: (1) a place to stand
within a system of power; and (2) an intervention or application of certain energy
able to re-direct the momentum of forces at this site.
A place to stand, importantly, is in relation to a site where lines of force intersect; it
is, therefore, a point where an intervention may occur*a way of affecting the
dynamic of forces at this site. In short, the strategic consists not only of a campaigns
communicative efforts (framing, message construction, etc.) and its mobilization, but
also alignment of these efforts with contingent openings within a system of power, as
well as a mode of influence or leverage that enables a campaign to take advantage of
such openings to achieve wider outcomes or effects. Let me illustrate by elaborating
on the Sierra Club Beyond Coal campaign.
Under the US Clean Air Act, the authority to build and operate coal-fired power
plants is contingent upon permits from state agencies, usually a utility commission.
And, while such entities may grant applicants the authority to build a plant, the
129
capital required to do so is almost always beyond the ability of the electric utility
itself. Instead, financing depends upon institutional investors, firms like Morgan
Stanley or Goldman Sachs, and occurs only if these institutions are confident of
recovering their investments, once the utility is permitted.
As a result, the regulatory (and capital) requirements for a new coal-fired plant
have provided opponents a place to stand and site for their intervention, not only
in blocking individual permits, but also as a fulcrum for leveraging larger capital
flows in the US energy system. Simply put, the strategic challenge of the campaign is,
by increasing the cost of carbon*commensurate to its risk, i.e., its contribution to
climate change*it might be able to shift capital flows to non-carbon-based energy
sources*wind, solar, etc. (G. Haegele, personal communication, January 23, 2008).
By 2007, the US Energy Department had listed over 150 proposals for permits in a
major push to construct new or expand existing coal-fired power plants. Yet, few of
these proposals have been authorized. Indeed, as I write, 107 of the permits for new
coal-fired plants have been denied or quietly abandoned (B. Nilles, personal
communication, September 25, 2009). While stopping any one coal plant is a public
health success*after all, mercury and other air pollutants from these plants are a
major concern*the goal of systematically challenging the permits is more strategic:
denial of permits and delays in construction at multiple sites cumulatively have the
effect of signaling capital markets in ways that influence the direction of investment
in the broader energy economy and, therefore, the array of energy sources and
technologies coming online.
Specifically, delay of a plant increases construction costs*and thus increases risk
for institutional investors*while the denial of operating licenses jeopardizes the
expected return for capital investment in such utilities. Such signaling of risk, in turn,
has the potential to shift direction in capital investments toward renewable sources of
energy*wind, solar, and so forth. In fact, when the Department of Energy first listed
the proposed plants in 2007, it cautioned that, proposals to build new power plants
are often speculative . . . based upon the economic climate of . . . power generation
markets (IHS, 2007, p. 8).
In fact, the pressures created by citizen mobilization, lobbying, and media activities
around permit hearings (including threats of legal action) appear to have significantly
amplified market signals in this sector. With a growing number of coal-fired plant
permits denied or delayed, institutional investors have begun to notice. In 2008, three
major firms*Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., and Morgan Stanley*
announced that they were imposing new requirements for financing that will
make it harder for companies to build coal-fired power plants in the US. (Ball, 2008,
p. 1). With this, Beinecke (2008, p. 1) noted such firms are sending a potent signal to
the energy sector that it views dirty coal as shaky financial prospects and that the
smart money is heading toward cleaner, more sustainable energy options.
While shifts in capital flows are overdetermined, the early signs for the Sierra Club
Beyond Coal campaign and its coalition of allies are encouraging. The US Energy
Information Agency (2009), for example, reported that, while the net generation of
electricity from all energy sources dropped by 6.8% in June 2009 from the previous
130 J. R. Cox
year, largely due to recession, electricity generated from coal-fired plants decreased by
twice that amount (13.1%). Even larger drops in coal-fired electricity, as a percentage
of total generation, in February (15.1%) and March (15.3%) constituted the largest
decline in a quarter-century in the USA (US Energy Information Agency, 2009, p. 1).
Correspondingly, a shift to alternative energy sources appears to be underway. The
agency reported that hydroelectric power and other renewable sources (solar, wind,
geothermal, and biomass) actually increased as a percentage of electricity generation
in 2009, while wind turbines alone added over 42% of new electrical power capacity
in the USA (Nilles, 2009).
Conclusions
Citizen mobilization in Sierra Clubs Beyond Coal campaign, and its leveraging of
carbon pricing to signal capital markets, is only one example of a potential strategic
alignment of communicative acts and wider effects. Yet, its early success suggests that
we might rethink the idea of climate communication at the scale of systems, and not
simply as cognitive (framing) processes or the construction of meaning in individual
subjects, though this, too, is important. In this case, it suggests that we rethink
meaning as signaling within networks in which power is contingent upon certain
sites through which lines of authority and influence flow. Let me conclude, then, by
sketching some tentative theses toward such a rethinking of strategy in climate
communication campaigns.
1. The strategic is, first and foremost, a heuristic*a way of identifying a mode of
leverage within a network of contingent relationships.
2. Specifically, the strategic as leverage requires a place to stand, that is, a
relationship or access to a relevant site within a system of power.
3. Such sites have relevance to the degree they function as nodes in a network of
contingent relationships; that is, certain actions or determinations at these nodes
sustain, disrupt, or redirect lines of influence or the flow of power in this network.
4. The ability to alter the dynamic at relevant sites, therefore, depends upon an
intervention*the application of a certain force with the potential to redirect the
lines of authority or influence which intersect at this site.
5. Such an intervention may produce an effect in itself, but may also signal or
initiate a disturbance within the wider network (e.g., a reversal in regulatory
permits for coal may function to signal risk to institutional investors in the US
energy sector).
6. Furthermore, the effects of such signals may be particularly consequential, that is,
they may reconfigure power in a wider system (e.g., capital flows to alternative
energy sources).
7. Finally, the effect of similar interventions at multiple, relevant sites may amplify a
signal in the wider network and, therefore, reinforce transformations in the
direction of authority within this system.
131
I am indebted to Greg Haegele, former Conservation Director of the Sierra Club, for this
analysis of traditional mobilization strategies.
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