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DISC203ProbabilityandStatistics
FallSemester2015
Instructor
RoomNo.
OfficeHours
Email
Telephone
Secretary
TAOfficeHours
CourseURL(ifany)
MuhammadAsim
439SDSBBuilding
Mondays&Wednesdays:2:00p.m. 4:00p.m.
Muhammad.Asim@lums.edu.pk
04235605232
AbdulBasit
TBA
Suraj.lums.edu.pk
COURSEBASICS
CreditHours
Lecture(s)
Recitation/Lab(perweek)
Tutorial(perweek)
3
NbrofLec(s)PerWeek
NbrofLec(s)PerWeek
NbrofLec(s)PerWeek
Duration
Duration
Duration
75minutes
COURSEDISTRIBUTION
Core
Elective
OpenforStudentCategory
CloseforStudentCategory
Yes
Sophomore
COURSEDESCRIPTION
Thiscourseisdesignedtoprovidestudentsmajoringinmanagementandfinancewithanelementaryintroductiontoprobability
and statistics with applications. Both descriptive and inferential statistics are covered. We first review techniques for organizing
and presenting the raw data and elementary probability theory. Next, we discuss various techniques to make inferences. Along
withprobabilitytheory,samplingdistributionandcentrallimittheoremshallbediscussed.Theideaofcentrallimittheoremwill
naturallyleadtowardstheconfidenceintervalsandhypothesistestsformeanandproportion.Wefollowthisdiscussionwithsingle
andmultipleregressionanalysis,modelbuilding,designofexperimentsandcategoricaldataanalysis.Thecoursealsoaimstogivea
handson experience with using a statistical package, Stata, alongside Microsoft Excel for carrying out data analysis. The main
objectiveofthecourseistoprovidestudentswiththefoundationsofstatisticalinferencemostlyusedinbusinessandeconomics.
COURSEPREREQUISITE(S)
CalculusI(Math101)
COURSELEARNINGOBJECTIVES(CLO)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Toenablestudentstosolveproblemsusingbasicconceptsofprobability
Tointroducestudentstothetheoryofinferentialstatistics
To enable students to analyze data by identifying appropriate statistical techniques, computing statistics and
interpretingresults
ToenablestudentstouseExcelandStataforstatisticalanalysisofdata
Toenablestudentstopresentanddefendtheirempiricalanalysiseffectively
LahoreUniversityofManagementSciences
LEARNINGOUTCOMES(LO)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Bytheendofthecourse,studentsshouldbeableto:
summarizethedatainausefulandinformativemanner
usethebasicconceptsofprobabilityandrandomvariables
explaintheconceptofthesamplingdistributionofastatic,andinparticulardescribethebehaviorofthesample
mean
describe the foundations of classical inference involving confidence intervals and hypothesis testing and apply
inferentialmethods
applymodelingtechniquesinsimpleandmultiplelinearregressionanalysis
discusscriticalelementsinthedesignofasamplingexperimentandanalyzedesignedexperimentsusinganalysisof
variance
analyzecountdatawithtwoormorecategories
useExcelandStataforstatisticalanalysisofdata
defendtheirempiricalanalysiseffectively,bothinoralandwrittenforms
UNDERGRADUATEPROGRAMLEARNINGGOALS&OBJECTIVES
GeneralLearningGoals&Objectives
Goal1EffectiveWrittenandOralCommunication
Objective:Studentswilldemonstrateeffectivewritingandoralcommunicationskills
Goal2EthicalUnderstandingandReasoning
Objective:Studentswilldemonstratethattheyareabletoidentifyandaddressethicalissuesinanorganizational
context.
Goal3AnalyticalThinkingandProblemSolvingSkills
Objective:Studentswilldemonstratethattheyareabletoidentifykeyproblemsandgenerateviablesolutions.
Goal4ApplicationofInformationTechnology
Objective:Studentswilldemonstratethattheyareabletousecurrenttechnologiesinbusinessandmanagement
context.
Goal5TeamworkinDiverseandMulticulturalEnvironments
Objective:Studentswilldemonstratethattheyareabletoworkeffectivelyindiverseenvironments.
Goal6UnderstandingOrganizationalEcosystems
Objective:StudentswilldemonstratethattheyhaveanunderstandingofEconomic,Political,Regulatory,Legal,
Technological,andSocialenvironmentoforganizations.
MajorSpecificLearningGoals&Objectives
Goal7(a)DisciplineSpecificKnowledgeandUnderstanding
Objective:Studentswilldemonstrateknowledgeofkeybusinessdisciplinesandhowtheyinteractincluding
applicationtorealworldsituations(Includingsubjectknowledge).
Goal7(b)Understandingthesciencebehindthedecisionmakingprocess(forMGSMajors)
Objective:Studentswilldemonstrateabilitytoanalyzeabusinessproblem,designandapplyappropriate
decisionsupporttools,interpretresultsandmakemeaningfulrecommendationstosupportthedecisionmaker
LahoreUniversityofManagementSciences
Indicatebelowhowthecourselearningobjectivesspecificallyrelatetoanyprogramlearninggoalsandobjectives.
PROGRAMLEARNINGGOALSAND
OBJECTIVES
COURSELEARNINGOBJECTIVES
COURSEASSESSMENTITEM
Goal1EffectiveWrittenandOral
Communication
Studentsgetanumberofopportunitiesto
demonstratetheirabilitytocommunicate
effectively(CLO#5)
Studentsdemonstrateanhonestreporting
anduseofdata(CLO#5)
Thisisanimportantobjectiveofthe
course(CLO#1,3,5)
StudentslearntouseStataandExcelfor
dataanalysis(CLO#4)
Studentsworkingroupsontheproject
Project,CPandExams
NA
NA
Comprehensivecoverageoftopicsin
elementaryprobabilityandstatistics(CLO
#15&LO#19)
Studentsapplyappropriatestatistical
methodstoanswerdatabaseddecision
problems
(CLO#15)
Assignments,Quizzes,CP,Projectand
Exams
Goal2EthicalUnderstandingand
Reasoning
Goal3AnalyticalThinkingandProblem
SolvingSkills
Goal4ApplicationofInformation
Technology
Goal5TeamworkinDiverseand
MulticulturalEnvironments
Goal6UnderstandingOrganizational
Ecosystems
Goal7(a)DisciplineSpecificKnowledge
andUnderstanding
Goal7(b)Understandingthescience
behindthedecisionmakingprocess
Project
Quizzes,Assignments,CP,Projectand
Exams
AssignmentsandProject
Project
Assignments,Quizzes,CP,Projectand
Exams
GRADINGBREAKUPANDPOLICY
Assignment(s):7.5%(2individualassignments)
HomeWork:(Forpractice,notgraded)
Quiz(s):15%(7announcedquizzes;best5willbecounted)
ClassParticipation:3%
Attendance:7%
MidtermExamination:25%
Project:7.5%(tobecompletedinagroupofupto7students)
FinalExamination:35%
EXAMINATIONDETAIL
Midterm
Exam
FinalExam
Yes/No:Yes
CombineSeparate:Combine
Duration:100minutes
PreferredDate:
ExamSpecifications:closedbook,closednotes,helpsheetallowed(A4size,singlesided,handwritten),calculators
allowed
Yes/No:Yes
CombineSeparate:Combine
Duration:100minutes
ExamSpecifications:closedbook,closednotes,helpsheetallowed(A4size,twosided,handwritten),calculators
allowed
LahoreUniversityofManagementSciences
COURSEOVERVIEW
LECTURE
2&3
5&6
7,8,9&10
TOPICS
Statistics,DataandStatisticalThinking
TheScienceofStatistics;TypesofStatistical
ApplicationsinBusiness;FundamentalElements
ofStatistics;TypesofData
MethodsofDescribingSetsofData
GraphicalMethods;SummationNotation;
CentralTendency;Variability;RelativeStanding;
StandardDeviation;DistortingtheTruthwith
DescriptiveTechniques
RECOMMENDED
READINGS
Chapter1
Understandthenatureand
scopeofStatistics
Chapter2
Chooseasuitablewayof
presentingrawStatisticalData
Discusstheadvantagesand
disadvantagesofdifferent
waysofrepresentingdata
Calculateandinterpret
measuresofcentraltendency
andvariability
DescribedatausingExcel&
Stata
Describethesamplespacefor
certainrandomexperiments
Computeprobabilities
Understandthenotionof
RandomSampling
LabSession
Probability
Events,SampleSpacesandProbability;
UnionsandIntersections;ComplementaryEvents;
TheAdditiveRuleandMutuallyExclusiveEvents;
ConditionalProbability;TheMultiplicativeRule
andIndependentEvents;RandomSampling;
BayesRule
RandomVariablesandProbabilityDistributions
TwoTypesofRandomVariables:
DiscreteRandomVariables:Probability
DistributionsforDiscreteRandomVariables;
ExpectedValuesofDiscreteRandomVariables;
TheBinomialRandomVariable;ThePoisson
RandomVariable
ContinuousRandomVariables:Probability
DistributionsforContinuousRandomVariables;
TheUniformDistribution;TheNormal
Distribution;ApproximatingaBinomial
DistributionwithaNormalDistribution;The
ExponentialDistribution
SamplingDistributions:TheConceptofSampling
Distributions;PropertiesofSampling
Distributions:UnbiasednessandMinimum
Variance;TheSamplingDistributionoftheSample
Mean
SESSIONOBJECTIVES
Chapter3
Chapter4
Chapter5
Chapter6
Findprobabilitiesfor
distributionsoverdiscretesets
Calculatethemeanand
varianceofadiscreterandom
variable
Recognizecaseswhere
BinomialDistributioncouldbe
anappropriatemodel;
computeprobabilitiesfora
BinomialDistributionand
approximateBinomial
probabilitiesusingaNormal
Distribution;
Findprobabilitiesfor
continuousdistributions
Usethekeypropertiesofthe
NormalDistributions
Recognizecaseswhere
Poisson,Uniformand
ExponentialDistributions
couldbeappropriateand
computecorresponding
probabilities
Describepropertiesofthe
samplingdistributionofsample
mean
UnderstandandapplyCentral
LahoreUniversityofManagementSciences
11,12&13
14
15&16
17&18
InferenceBasedonaSingleSample:
EstimationwithConfidenceIntervals
LargeSampleConfidenceintervalforaPopulation
Mean;SmallSampleConfidenceIntervalfora
PopulationMean;LargeSampleConfidence
IntervalforaPopulationProportion;Determining
thesamplesize;SampleSurveyDesigns
TestsofHypothesis
TheElementsofaTestofHypothesis;Large
SampleTestofHypothesisAboutaPopulation
Mean;SmallSampleTestofHypothesisAbouta
PopulationMean;LargeSampleTestof
HypothesisAboutaPopulationProportion;
ObservedSignificanceLevels:pvalues
MidtermExam
InferenceBasedonTwoSamples
ComparingTwoPopulationMeans:
IndependentSampling;ComparingTwo
PopulationMeans:PairedDifferenceExperiments;
ComparingTwoPopulationProportions:
IndependentSampling;DeterminingtheSample
Size;ComparingTwoPopulationVariances:
IndependentSampling
SimpleLinearRegression
ProbabilisticModels;FittingtheModel:The
LeastSquaresApproach;ModelAssumptions;
AssessingtheUtilityoftheModel:Making
InferenceabouttheSlope;TheCoefficientsof
CorrelationandDetermination;UsingtheModel
forEstimationandPrediction
Chapter7
Chapter8
Chapter9
ApplyClassicalHypothesis
Testingtocomparetwo
populationsanddraw
inference
Chapter10
Definetheconceptofleast
squaresestimationinlinear
regression
Explainwhycorrelationneed
notnecessarilyimplycausation
Evaluatethefitofalinear
model
Conductinferencefortheslope
andinterceptparameters
Fitalinearregressionmodel
usingExcel&Stata,dopost
estimationanalysisandexplain
computeroutput
DefinetheconceptofLeast
SquaresRegressioninMultiple
Regression
TesttheutilityofaMultiple
RegressionModelanduseit
forestimationandprediction
Interprettheresultsofa
MultipleRegressionModeland
drawinference
Understandhowtoselecta
modelthatisappropriatefor
givendata
LabSession
19
20&21
22&23
MultipleRegressionandModelBuilding
MultipleRegression
MultipleRegression:TheModelandthe
Procedure;TheLeastSquaresApproach;Model
assumptions;InferenceAbouttheSlope
Parameters;CheckingtheUsefulnessofthe
Model:R2andtheAnalysisofVarianceFTest;
UsingtheModelforEstimationandPrediction,
ResidualAnalysis:CheckingtheRegression
Assumptions
ModelBuilding
TheTwoTypesofIndependentVariables:
LimitTheorem
Calculateandinterpret
ConfidenceIntervalsand
ConfidenceLevels
RememberstepsinClassical
Hypothesistesting
DescribeTypeIandTypeII
Errors
ConductTestsofHypothesis
accordingtoagivensituation
andinterprettheresults.
Chapter11
Chapter12
LahoreUniversityofManagementSciences
24
25&26
27
28
QuantitativeandQualitative;Modelswitha
SingleQuantitativeIndependentVariable;Models
withTwoorMoreQuantitativeIndependent
Variables;TestingPortionsofaModel;Models
withOneQualitativeIndependentVariable;
ComparingtheSlopesofTwoorMoreLines;
ComparingTwoorMoreResponseCurves;
StepwiseRegression
LabSession
DesignofExperiments
ElementsofaDesignedExperiment;The
CompletelyRandomizedDesign:SingleFactor;
MultipleComparisonsofMeans;Factorial
Experiments
CategoricalDataAnalysis:TheChiSquareTest
andtheAnalysisofContingencyTables
TheMultinomialDistribution;Contingency
Tables;AWordofCautionAboutChiSquareTests
Review
Chapter15
Chapter17
UseExcelandStatafor
MultipleRegressionAnalysis
Discussthecriticalelementsin
thedesignofasampling
experiment
Analyzedesignedexperiments
UseMultinomialDistribution
ConstructContingencyTables
ConductChiSquaredTest
TEXTBOOK(S)/SUPPLEMENTARYREADINGS
RequiredTexts:
JamesMcClave,P.GeorgeBenson,TerrySincich.StatisitcsforBusinessandEconomics.7thEdition.PrenticeHall,NJ.1998.(MBC)
Datasetsat:
http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/esm/statistics_datasets/stats_datasets.html#mcclave3
OnlineresourcestohelpyoulearnStata:
http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/