Doc 9956

Doc 9956

999 University Street, Montral, Quebec H3C 5H7 Canada

Tel.: +1 514-954-8219 Fax: +1 514-954-6077

www.icao.int

Published in separate English, Arabic, Chinese,

French, Russian and Spanish editions by the
INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION
For ordering information and for a complete listing of sales agents
and booksellers, please go to the ICAO website at www.icao.int
Doc 9956, Global and Regional 20-year Forecasts:
Pilots, Maintenance Personnel and Air Traffic Controllers
Order Number: 9956
ISBN 978-92-9231-729-4
ICAO 2011
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any
means, without prior permission in writing from the International
Civil Aviation Organization.

ICAO Global and Regional 20-year Forecasts: Pilots Maintenance Personnel Air Traffic Controllers

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

PREVIEW

Global and Regional

20-year Forecasts
Pilots Maintenance Personnel Air Traffic Controllers
Approved by the Secretary General and published under his authority

ICAO:

The undisputed reference for

aviation data and traffic forecasts.
This manual constitutes an independent study
regarding civil aviation personnel and contributes
to the aviation data and traffic forecasts for which
the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
is recognized.
During the last decade, commercial air transport
has shown a strong traffic growth pattern, leading
to many new commercial air transport operators
and the highest number of aircraft orders ever
registered. Over the next twenty years, the
demand for qualified aviation personnel, such
as pilots, aircraft maintenance personnel and air
traffic controllers will need to be correlated to
aircraft delivery plans.
The approach taken in this study compares the
number of new personnel to be trained each
year with the annual training capacities of the
existing training infrastructure, with a view to
expose possible shortages or surpluses globally

and by region. Failure to quantify such shortages

or surpluses could not only constrain air traffic
growth, but could also adversely affect the
safety and efficiency of air transport operations.
Before the air transport industry crisis in 2008
and 2009, the threat of a widening gap between
available and required personnel was seen as
a potential traffic growth constraint in certain
regions. The challenge for the industry remains
to ensure sufficient training capacities without
compromising quality and safety standards.
In the short term, the pressure might be
temporarily eased since the airline industry is
still recovering from the decline in traffic growth
due to the global financial crisis and is therefore
carefully managing the redeployment of its
capacity. However, difficulties may soon arise
when the additional demand for personnel, fuelled
by traffic increases and fleet expansion, coincides
with predicted retirement waves.

Table of Contents
Scope of the study

Glossary of terms,
8
definitions and abbreviations

Air transport development 18

for 20102030
Traffic growth for 20102030.................................... 18
Aircraft movement growth for 20102030................ 18
Fleet growth for 20102030...................................... 22

Methodology

10

Data collection.......................................................... 10

Pilots

2008 ICAO Survey

Form D of the ICAO Statistics Programme
u SAAQ of the USOAP

Fleet growth rates

Aircraft group distribution
u Geographical aircraft distribution
u
u

u
u

26

Reporting coverage................................................... 12

The 2010 pilot population.......................................... 26

Development of personnel forecasts........................ 13

Pilot requirements for 20102030. ........................... 26

u High scenario
u Most likely scenario
Case study: augmented United States attrition rate
u Low scenario

Fleet growth rates

u General assumptions
Validation of current population data
Attrition rates
Training capacities
Personnel ratios
Pilots/aircraft ratios
Maintenance personnel/aircraft ratios
Aircraft movements/ATCO ratios
u

Constraints and facilitators....................................... 36

u Age limit for flight crews
u Regulatory framework of pilot mobility
u The probable migratory flows
u Challenges associated with pilot mobility
u Optimizing the training infrastructure
u Overview of the implementation
of the MPL programme
u The coexistence of the two approaches
to pilot training
u Other possible personnel reserves

Maintenance personnel

50

The 2010 air traffic controller population.................. 50

Air traffic controller personnel requirements
for 20102030........................................................... 52

44

The 2010 maintenance personnel population........... 44

Maintenance personnel requirements
for 20102030........................................................... 46
Constraints and facilitators........................................ 48
u Availability of maintenance personnel
u Training concept for licensed personnel
in aircraft maintenance

Air traffic controllers

Case study: augmented ATCO efficiency

Regional overview

56

Conclusion:

68

the ICAO vision for the Next Generation

of Aviation Professionals

u The need for reliable statistics

u The Best and the Brightest
u Facilitating the use of
competency-based approaches
u Removing regulatory obstacles
u A coordinating mechanism is required

List of tables,
charts and graphs

72

Appendices

73

Most likely scenario

Pilot comparison: 20102030
60 000

40 000

20 000

Training capacities
Training needs

Surplus
Shortage

-20 000
Africa

As
sia
a/
Asia/
Pac
cifi
fic
Pacific

Euro
op
pe
Europe

La
atin
Latin
Ameeriica
America

Mid
ddlee
Middle
Ea
ast
East

h
North
Americca
America

Maintenance personnel comparison: 20102030

60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000

Training capacities

10 000

Training needs

Surplus

-10 000

Shortage

-20 000
Africa
i

Asia/
A
i /
Pacific

Europ
E
Europe

L ti
Latin
America

Mid
ddl
Middle
East

N th
North
America

The graph below compares, for each region, annual

training requirements of ATCOs between 2010 and 2030
with annual training capacities.
From a global perspective, the shortage of ATCOs, based
on current training capacities, appears relatively high
since it represents 29 per cent of the training capacities.
An increase in training capacities worldwide may however
not even be necessary considering ongoing developments
in air transport management technology (as described
in the following Case study: augmented ATCO efficiency).
To a certain extent, the results provided above regarding
ATCOs constitute a most likely scenario and the results
000case study below a best case scenario.
of6 the

ATCO comparison: 20102030

5 000
4 000
3 000

Training capacities

2 000

Training needs

1 000

Surplus

Shortage

-1 000
Africa

Asia/
As
sia
a/
Pacific
Pac
cifi
fic

Europe
Euro
op
pe

Latin
La
atin
America
Ameeriica

Middle
Mid
ddle
e
East
Ea
ast

North
h
America
Americca

Human resources development and management

must strive to continuously improve the competency
levels of safety-critical personnel, while taking
into account interdependencies for supply and
demand of qualified personnel at national, regional
and global levels. Estimating current and future
requirements for civil aviation personnel and
training capacity in each region is essential for
human resources planning, institutional capacity
building, and related funding and policy measures.
Using its breadth of civil aviation expertise,
international network, and decades of practice
producing high-quality products, ICAO is now
introducing world reference material in civil
aviation forecasting products.

This manual is based on first-hand information

collected from different air transport industry
stakeholders, including Contracting States.

This study is ICAOs initial response to the market

demand and is the first in a series that will provide
data, analyses, and forecasts to all key players
of the civil aviation industry.
The first part of this study describes the
methodology. In the second part, future
air transport developments, including traffic,
movement and fleet growth forecasts are
described. Based on the underlying conditions
presented in the first two parts, personnel
requirements are introduced in the study for
three aviation personnel professions (pilots,
maintenance personnel and air traffic controllers).
An overview of each regions particular situation,
including country case studies, is finally provided.

Doc 9956

Doc 9956

999 University Street, Montral, Quebec H3C 5H7 Canada

Tel.: +1 514-954-8219 Fax: +1 514-954-6077

www.icao.int

Published in separate English, Arabic, Chinese,

French, Russian and Spanish editions by the
INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION
For ordering information and for a complete listing of sales agents
and booksellers, please go to the ICAO website at www.icao.int
Doc 9956, Global and Regional 20-year Forecasts:
Pilots, Maintenance Personnel and Air Traffic Controllers
Order Number: 9956
ISBN 978-92-9231-729-4
ICAO 2011
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any
means, without prior permission in writing from the International
Civil Aviation Organization.

ICAO Global and Regional 20-year Forecasts: Pilots Maintenance Personnel Air Traffic Controllers

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

Global and Regional

20-year Forecasts
Pilots Maintenance Personnel Air Traffic Controllers
Approved by the Secretary General and published under his authority