Popup Quiz #2 on Homework-Keys

Instructor: Dongming Wei

MATH 310-Applied Statistics-2L

Name ___________
09/21/16

1. An experiment is designed to test the potency of a drug on 20 rats. Previous animal studies
have shown that a 10-mg dose of the drug is lethal 5% of the time within the first 4 hours and of
the rats alive at 4 hours, 10 % will die in the next 4 hours.
a) (5 points) What is the probability that 2 rats will die in the 8-hour period?

x number of rats die in the first 4 hours,y=number of rats die in the second 4 hours
Ans p ( x 2) p( y 0 | x 2) p( x 1) p( y 1| x 1) p( x 0) p( y 2 | x 0)
20
18
20
19
(0.05) 2 (0.95)18 (0.1) 0 (0.9)18 (0.05)1 (0.95)19 (0.1)1 (0.9)18
2
0
1
1
20
20
(0.05)0 (0.95) 20 (0.1) 2 (0.9)18 0.238
0
2

b) (5 points) Write a general formula for the probability that x number of rats will die in the 8
hour period.

i j2
20
20 i 2 i
18
Ans P( x i ) P( y j | x i ) 0.05i 0.9520 i
0.1 0.9
i 0 i
2i
2

2. (10 points) A national study found that treating people appropriately for high blood pressure
reduced their overall mortality significantly. Treating people adequately for hypertension has
been difficult because it is estimated that 40 % of hypertensives do not know they have high
blood-pressure, 40% of those who do know are inadequately treated by their physicians, and
40% who are adequately treated fail to follow this treatment by taking the right number of pills.
What is the probability that among 10 true hypertensives at least 5 are being treated
appropriately and are complying with this treatment?

p .63 .216
10
Ans P( x 5) 1 p( x k ) 1 0.216k 0.78410 k
k 0
k 0 k
1 .658 .342
4

3. (10 points) Assume the number of episodes per year of otitis media follows a Poisson
distribution with =1.6 episodes per year. Assuming that episodes of this disease for siblings are
independent, what is the probability that 2 siblings will both have 3 or more episodes of otitis in
the first 2 years of life?

1.6, t 2, t 3.2
Ans P( x 3) p( x 3) p( x 3) 2 [1 p( x 0) p( x 1) p( x 2)]2
2

xe

x 0

x!

(1

) 2 0.622 0.385

Quiz #2-Keys
Instructor: Dongming Wei
MATH 310-Applied Statistics-2L

Name ___________
09/21/16

1. (10 points) Some previous studies have shown a relationship between emergency-room
admissions per day and level of pollution on a given day. A small local hospital finds that the
number of admissions to the emergency ward on a single day ordinarily (unless there is
unusually high pollution) follows a Poisson distribution with mean = 2.0 admissions per day.
Suppose each admitted person to the emergency ward stays there for exactly 1 day and is
then discharged and there is no admission to the ward in high-pollution days. On a random
day during the year, what is the probability there will be 6 admissions to the emergency
ward, assuming there are 335 normal-pollution days and 30 high-pollution days?

 2, t 1 t 2
335
26 2 2
p( X 6) 0.981
365
6!
0.011 0.1%
Ans

2. (10 points) Suppose we are interested in the genetic susceptibility to breast cancer. We find
that 4 of 1000 women ages 4049 whose mothers have had breast cancer also develop breast
cancer over the next year of life. From large population studies, we find that 1 in 1000 women of
this age group will develop a new case of the disease over the next year of life. Calculate the
probability of at least 4 women will develop breast cancer in the large population over the next
year of life. How unusual is this event is it to have 6 cases in this 1000 women? (Hint: use
Poisson distribution to approximate the binormial distribution).
3
1000
1000
x
1000 x
x
1000 x
Ans
0.001

0.999

0.001 0.999
x
x4 x
x 0
np 1
1000

x e

0.0189
x!
Therefore, in the general population we normally expect to have
100 0.0189 2 cases of such cancer and having 4 cases is unusual!
x 0