Demography and Health

A Presentation on association between:

Energy Shortage and Population

Growth
Prabesh Ghimire

This presentation will cover

Background
Energy Demand vs Population Growth
Links Between Energy Problems and
Population
Logistic Population Model
Population-Energy Dependency
Energy Sources and Population Growth
Implications of Energy Shortage on Population
Addressing and Coping Global Energy
Problems
Summary

Background

Energy Crisis- Significant shortage in the

supply of energy resources (1)

Global energy demand increasing because of

Population growth
Industrial growth

Evidence shows (2)

Population growth
Increase in energy
demands
Increase in energy shortage

Energy Demands Vs Population Growth

UN Prediction of world population(3)

2030
2050

8.5 billion
9.7 billion

According to International Energy Outlook 2016

(4)

Levels of energy demand predicted to rise (2012-2040)

Much increase in non-OECD nations
Non-OECD countries Population expanding and Rapid
economic growth

Rise
in energyRise
demand
(2012-2040)
Countries
in Energy
Population
Demand
Growth
Non-OECD

71%

33%

OECD

18%

12%

World
Source:
International Energy48%
Outlook, 2016
4

29%

Energy Demands Vs Population Growth

Doubling time(5)

World Population
World energy use

35 Years
14 years

Annual increase rate(4)

World population
World energy use

0.9%
1.4%

Scare energy Price rise

problems

Population

Economic hardship + Material deprivation

5

World Total Population (in Millions)

10000

8063

8402

8719

9014

7351

7630

6404

6739

7054

1243

1295

1325

1348

1368

2012

2020

2025

2030

2035

OECD

Non-OECD

World

9000
8000

6991

7073

5756
6000

5830

7000

7699

5000
4000
3000
2000

1235

1000
0

2011

1384

2040

Source: International Energy Outlook, 2016

6

World Total Energy Consumption

(quadrillion BTU)
900
800
700
600
540.5

628.9

717.7

549.3

500
400

673.9

375

413.3

450.5

765.6

815

491.2

532.8

298.6

310.8

200

118.1

125.7

128.1

130.7

133.8

2012

2020

2025

2030

2035

300

120.6
100
0

2011

OECD

Non-OECD

138.1

2040

World

Source: International Energy Outlook, 2016

7

Links between growing energy problems

& population

Today Worlds Energy Problems is the

combination of(6)

Scarce energy to meet basic human needs of

worlds population
Rising monetary costs of energy
Growing environmental impacts of energy supply
Dominant contributors to local, regional and
global environmental problems which impacts
population
Increasing sociopolitical risks of energy supply
Example: Danger of conflict over oil and links
between nuclear energy and nuclear weapons
impacts population

Logistic Population Model

Carrying
Early
population
Capacity
grows quickly; no
energy constraints
(7)
With
population
growth, competition
for energy grows
(7)
Mature populations
grow slowly to a
ceiling carrying Zabel, The interrelationship between population growth
and energy resources 2009
capacity (7)

Population

Population Energy Dependency

Expanding
carrying
capacity

Zabel, The interrelationship between population growth and energy resources 2009
10

Energy Sources and Population Growth

The different types of energy consumed may

have different effects on the growth of
population.
The relationship between population growth
and energy can be observed in terms of three
components:

11

Population growth due to biomass energy,

Population growth due to coal and
Population growth due to oil

Association between population growth and

biomass energy

Slow exponential population growth as long as

there is frontier land for expansion (7)
Population growth stops or redirects itself,
with limitation of frontier land (7)
Exhibiting population homeostasis (8)

12

Association between population growth and

coal

Population initially grows quickly but

eventually the population ceiling is reached.
(8)
Because coal production is still growing, coal
based populations are still growing.(7)

13

Association between population growth and

oil energy

Logistic growth (8)

Plateau once frontiers are limited and
productivity gains are realized(8)
Availability of fossil fuels particularly crude oil
has a profound effect on population growth.
Population of the world has been growing
because the death rates have declined.

14

Energy
sources

Type of population
growth

Contribution to world
population

Biomass

Slow exponential
growth

Low contribution to world's

population

Coal

Fast logistics growth

High contribution to world's

population

Oil

Logistics growth

High contribution to world's

population

15

Implications of Energy Shortage on

Population

Lack of direct energy services

Chain effects from inflation, unemployment, and
reduced economic output(6)

Possible scenario(6)
Indiscriminate energy use Energy shortage
More energy depletion Increased pollution
Environmental problems Effects on population

Energy Shortage
Low quality of life Poor
access
and
control
over
services
(e.g.
contraceptives)
Population growth (9)
16

Addressing and Coping Global Energy

Problems

Address population growth and energy shortages

simultaneously
Tackle population growth(10)

Educate on family planning

Make modern contraceptives available in developing
countries

Raise energy supply (esp. Africa, East Asia and

South Asia)(10)

Short term solution:

Long term sustainable solution

17

Focus on availability of easily moveable &cheap fuel - fossil

Development and deployment all energy sources
Complement and ultimately replace fossil fuels.

Summary

Global energy demands are increasing at

higher rates than population growth
Intense energy shortage predicted in future
Population growth trends differ for different
energy sources
Population growth increases energy shortage
Energy shortages in turn increases population
Energy shortages impact population in various
ways
Solutions: Reduce population
Increase energy supply

18

Open Discussion

19

References
Energy
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[cited
2016
July
22];
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_crisis.
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World population projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050: United Nations; 2015
[cited
2016
July
11].
Available
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http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/2015-report.html.
4.
International energy outlook 2016. Washington DC: U.S. Energy Information
Administration, 2016 May Report No.: DOE/EIA-0484(2016).
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Hodgson PE. The energy crisis
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energy
resources
2009
[cited
2016
June
22].
Available
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http://www.resilience.org/stories/2009-04-20/peak-people-interrelationship-b
etween-population-growth-and-energy-resources
.
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Graham Z. Population and energy 2008 [cited 2016 June 22]. Available from:
http://dieoff.org/page199.htm.
20
9.
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