Public Opinion Research

Ontario This Month

Ontario Landscape
Field Dates: September 15th to
September 24th, 2016
Sample Size: n=600; MoE 4.0%

ENERGYCONFERENCE16
Toronto | September 28, 2016

2016 Copyright Innovative Research Group Inc.

Agenda
1. Political Overview
a)

Vote

b)

Leaders

c)

Time for a change

2. Where does electricity fit?

3. General mood
4. Priorities and willingness to pay for improvement
5. Cyber Security
6. Cap and trade

7. Electricity Politics

Methodology
Telephone Survey

60% Landline

40% Mobile

Method: Live operator telephone survey [60% landline and 40% mobile]

Sample Size: n=600

Sample Frame: General Population [18yrs+, Ontario resident, and eligible to vote]
Field Dates: September 15-24, 2016
Weighting: Sample weighted by age, region, and gender to reflect the actual demographic
composition of the adult population residing in Ontario [Statscan Census 2011].
Confidence: Aggregated results are accurate to within 4%, 19 times out of 20.

44

Ontario Vote

Provincial Direction: Majority (54%) now think province on

wrong track and just 41% think it is headed in the right direction

Generally speaking, do you feel things in Ontario are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong
track? And do you feel strongly or somewhat strongly about that?
[asked of all respondents]

Sept`16

54%
41%
Wrong track

Apr 00
Sep 00
Feb 01
July 01
Dec 01
Jun 02
Nov 02
Apr 03
Sep 03
Feb 04
July 04
Dec 04
May 05
Oct '05
Mar '06
Aug '06
Jan '07
June '07
Nov '07
Apr '08
Sep '08
Feb '09
July '09
Dec '09
May '10
Nov '10
May '11
Oct '11
April '12
Nov '12
Sep '14
Apr'15
Sep '15
Feb '16
Jul '16

Right direction

September
2016
Strongly right direction

8%

32%
Somewhat right direction

Note: Dont know / Refused not shown

18%
Somewhat wrong track

36%
Strongly wrong track

5%
Dont know

Provincial Vote Intention [Vote + Lean]: Ontario PCs (30%)

hold slim lead over Liberals (26%); 16% would vote NDP
Q

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for: the Progressive Conservative Party, the Liberal Party, the
New Democratic Party, the Green Party or another party?
In that case, which partys candidate do you lean toward slightly? [Vote + Lean]
[asked of all respondents]

30%

26%
16%
6%

1%
Other

Note: Refused (3%) not shown

6%
Would not
vote/None/Nobody

11%
Undecided/Don't
know

Vote Intention [Vote + Lean] 15-Year Tracking: PCs up 7points over the summer, neck-and-neck with Liberals
Q

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for: the Progressive Conservative Party, the Liberal Party, the
New Democratic Party, the Green Party or another party?
In that case, which partys candidate do you lean toward slightly? [Vote + Lean]
[asked of all respondents]

3%
8%
5%
12%

12%

9%
11%
1%
6%
16%

28%

44%

Jan '01
Jun '01
Nov '01
Apr '02
Sep '02
Feb '03
Jul '03
Dec '03
May '04
Oct '04
Mar '05
Aug '05
Jan '06
Jun '06
Nov '06
Apr '07
Sep '07
Feb '08
July '08
Dec '08
May '09
Oct '09
Mar '10
Sept '10
March '11
Sept '11
April '12
Nov '12
June '13
May '14
Jan '15
June '15
Nov '15
Apr '16
Sep '16

30%

Liberal

PC

NDP

Green

Other

Undecided

Refused/Would not vote

26%

Provincial Decided Vote Tracking: Liberal (33%) decided

lead drops 11 points down from 44% post-2014 election
Election

Election

[asked of all respondents]

Election

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for: the Progressive Conservative Party, the Liberal Party, the
New Democratic Party, the Green Party or another party? In that case, which partys candidate do you lean toward slightly?
[DECIDED VOTE]

Election

Sept-16

38%
33%
20%

Jun-99
Jul '00
Nov '00
Mar '01
Juy '01
Nov '01
Mar '02
Jul '02
Nov '02
Mar '03
Jul '03
Oct 03
Feb '04
Jun '04
Oct '04
Feb '05
Jun '05
Oct '05
Feb '06
Jun '06
Oct '06
Feb '07
June '07
Oct-07
Jan '08
May '08
Sep '08
Jan '09
May '09
Sept '09
Jan '10
May '10
Sept '10
Jan '11
June '11
Nov '11
April '12
Oct '12
Feb '13
Oct'13
Sept '14
Jan '15
May '15
Sep '15
Jan '16
May '16

8%

PC

Liberal

NDP

Green

Provincial Second Choice by Combined Vote: 43% of likely

Liberals would pick the NDP as their second choice
Q

And which party would be your second choice? BY [Vote+Lean]

[asked of all respondents]

Provincial Wide
PC 1st choice

Liberal 1st choice

NDP 1st choice

Green 1st choice

25%

31%

14%

25%

31%

PC 2nd Choice

16%

Liberal 2nd Choice

13%

14%

NDP 2nd choice

26%

28%

43%

Green/Other 2nd choice

14%

11%

14%

26%

WNV/Undecided

28%

43%

17%

17%

Note: Other in Combined Vote not show due to insufficient sample size, Refused not shown.

23%

28%

10

Counting Seats, Not Votes

11

Vote Intent by Quarter: Overall

2014 Seats won

39% 39% 40%

37%

Liberal

PC

NDP

2014

2016

58

28

21

107

122

37%

35%
31%

Seats available

31%
24%

22%
18%

19%

5%

7% 6% 6%
1% 1% 1% 1%

Liberal

PC

2014 Election

2016 Jan-Mar

NDP
2016 April-June

Green

Other

2016 July-Sept

12

Vote Intent by Region: Southwestern Ontario

2014 Seats won

41%
33%
24%

Liberal

PC

NDP

2014

2016

14

14

40%
35%

34%
31%

Seats available

29%

22%

30%
25% 25%

12%

5%

Liberal
2014 Election

PC
2016 Jan-Mar

NDP
2016 April-June

7%
3%

Green

2% 1% 1% 1%

Other

2016 July-Sept

13

Vote Intent by Region: Northern Ontario

2014 Seats won

Seats available

Liberal

PC

NDP

2014

2016

11

11

46%
39%
34% 34%
30%

27%

25%

21%

34%

33%
27%

21%

5%

Liberal
2014 Election

PC
2016 Jan-Mar

NDP
2016 April-June

8%

5% 7%

Green

1% 1% 1% 2%

Other

2016 July-Sept

14

Vote Intent by Region: Centre Toronto

2014 Seats won

48%

52%

Seats available

Liberal

PC

NDP

2014

2016

11

12

54%
42%
30%

28%
17%

Liberal
2014 Election

28%

20%

PC
2016 Jan-Mar

23%

17%

20%
7%
5% 3%
2%

2% 1% 1% 2%

Green

Other

NDP
2016 April-June

2016 July-Sept

15

Vote Intent by Region: Outer Toronto

2014 Seats won

50% 50%

Seats available

Liberal

PC

NDP

2014

2016

11

11

13

46% 48%

29% 29% 31% 28%

16%

19%
14% 14%
3%

Liberal
2014 Election

PC
2016 Jan-Mar

NDP
2016 April-June

6%

9%

Green

5%

1% 1%

Other

2016 July-Sept

16

Vote Intent by Region: Toronto West Metro Belt

2014 Seats won

Seats available

Liberal

PC

NDP

2014

2016

10

11

15

48% 46%

46%
42%

35%
30%

27%

30%
19% 17%

Liberal
2014 Election

PC
2016 Jan-Mar

23%
17%

6%
3% 4% 2%

2% 2% 1% 1%

Green

Other

NDP
2016 April-June

2016 July-Sept

17

Vote Intent by Region: Toronto North/East Metro Belt

2014 Seats won

Seats available

Liberal

PC

NDP

2014

2016

11

14

52%
46%

43%

42%

39%

35%

35%

27%
23%
17%

13%

12%
3% 5% 4%

Liberal
2014 Election

PC
2016 Jan-Mar

NDP
2016 April-June

Green

1%

1% 1%

Other

2016 July-Sept

1%

18

Vote Intent by Region: South Central Ontario

2014 Seats won

37%
32%

36%
32% 31%

31%

Seats available

Liberal

PC

NDP

2014

2016

16

18

30%

29%

34%
31%

26%
19%

8% 7%
6% 7%
1% 0% 0% 1%

Liberal
2014 Election

PC
2016 Jan-Mar

NDP
2016 April-June

Green

Other

2016 July-Sept

19

Vote Intent by Region: Eastern Ontario

2014 Seats won

44%
39% 40%

Seats available

Liberal

PC

NDP

2014

2016

13

13

42%
38%

38%
34% 34%

16%

14% 14%

12%

11%
5%

6% 7%
1% 1%

1%

Liberal
2014 Election

PC
2016 Jan-Mar

NDP
2016 April-June

Green

Other

2016 July-Sept

20

Vote Intent by Region: Central Ontario

2014 Seats won

46%
40%

36%

40%

Seats available

Liberal

PC

NDP

2014

2016

11

17%

17%

43%

29% 30% 30%

12%

13%

12%

11%
7%

8%
5%
1%

Liberal
2014 Election

PC
2016 Jan-Mar

NDP
2016 April-June

Green

3%

Other

2016 July-Sept

2%

21
21

Underlying Dynamics

Time for change: two-thirds (66%) of Ontarians think its time

for a change and most of them feel strongly about it
Q

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

[asked of all respondents]

It is time for a change in

government here in Ontario

The Liberals may have their

problems, but they are still the best
party to form government
Strongly agree
Neither agree nor disagree

50%

16%

16% 5% 13% 11%4%

25%

7% 14%

Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree

34%

4%

22

Time For Change Segmentation: 17% think its time for a

change, but believe Libs are still the best party for government
Hostile
Think it is time for
a change and do
not believe Libs are
best to form
government.

Core Libs

20%
Soft Libs

31%

Do not think it is
time for a change
and agree Libs are
best to form
government.

6%
Time for Change Libs

17%

22%

5%
Soft Anti-Libs

Uncertain

Think it is time for

a change, but
believe Libs are still
best to form
government.

23

Pre-writ Snapshot vs. 2016, Parties: PCs gain on ID since 2014,

Liberals drop on best party; Core, Soft Libs now smaller
March 2014, Pre-writ

September 2016

Party ID
Q

Party ID

Thinking about politics in Ontario, generally speaking, do you

usually think of yourself as: a Progressive Conservative, a Liberal, a
New Democrat, or something else or none of these?

31%
Liberal

21%

Progressive Conservative

11% 7%
NDP

30%

29%

Undecided/DK

None/Other

Liberals best to run government

Q

31%

3% 20%

Strongly agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Strongly disagree

Liberal

28%

Progressive Conservative

NDP

25%

Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Don't know

Time for a change segmentation*

6%

23%

7%
14%

6%

19%

None/Other

16%

25%

Strongly agree
Somewhat disagree

7% 14%
Somewhat agree
Strongly disagree

34%

Soft Libs

Core Libs

Uncertain
Soft anti-Libs
Hostile

20%

31%

Soft Libs

6%
17%

22%
5%

*Note: 2014 Time for change question worded as follows: Now thinking about Kathleen Wynne and the Liberal government - do you think that Kathleen Wynne and the
Liberal government have done a good enough job to deserve re-election, or is it time to give a new person and party a chance?.

4%

Neither agree nor disagree

Don't know

Time for a change segmentation*

Time for change Libs

23%

Undecided/DK

9%

Do you agree or disagreeThe Liberals may have their problems, but

they are the best party to form government.

Core Libs

26%

13%

Liberals best to run government

Do you agree or disagreeThe Liberals may have their problems,

but they are the best party to form government.

15%

Thinking about politics in Ontario, generally speaking, do you usually

think of yourself as: a Progressive Conservative, a Liberal, a New
Democrat, or something else or none of these?

Time for change Libs

Uncertain
Soft anti-Libs
Hostile

24

42% of Time for a change Liberals are voting Liberal, 22%

would vote NDP, 14% for PC and 18% undecided

Combined Provincial Vote

Time-For-Change Segmentation
Core Libs

Soft
Libs

PC

4%

8%

14%

Liberal

69%

47%

42%

NDP

10%

8%

22%

8%

20%

16%

Green/Other

7%

4%

22%

15%

3%

Unaligned

10%

18%

68%

26%

15%

37%

Time-forUncertain
change Libs
2%

Soft AntiLibs

Hostile

28%

65%

12%

0%

25

Leadership Favourability: Wynne viewed negatively (-34%);

Brown (+9) and Horwath (+20) seen positively, but less recognized
26

Now, I would like to read you the names of several individuals who have been mentioned in the news recently. For each one, please
tell me whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a very favourable, somewhat favourable, somewhat
unfavourable or very unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just say so. How about
[asked of all respondents]

Favourable = 22%
Patrick Brown 6% 16%

8% 7% 6%

Net Favourability

50%

39%

16%

+9%

Favourable = 26%
Kathleen Wynne

7%

19%

6% 15%

44%

5%2% -34%

Favourable = 36%
Andrea Horwath 6%

Note: Refused not shown

30%

11% 11% 5%

Very favourable
Neutral/Neither favourable nor unfavourable
Very unfavourable
Don't know

23%

Somewhat favourable
Somewhat unfavourable
Do not recognize

12%

+20%

Best Premier: 3-way tie for best premier, nearly 3-in-10 (27%)
still undecided, 10% say none of the above
Q

Which of the following would make the best Premier of Ontario?

[asked of all respondents]

22%

27%
18%

19%
10%
2%

Patrick Brown Kathleen Wynne Andrea Horwath

Note: Refused (2%) not shown

Other

None of the
above

Undecided/Don't
know

27

Pre-writ Snapshot vs. 2016, Leaders: big losses for Wynne

since pre-writ on best premier and leader favourables
March 2014, Pre-writ

September 2016

Best Premier
Q

Which of the following leaders would make the best Premier of

Ontario?

27%

17%

18%

Kathleen Wynne, Liberal

Andrea Horwath, NDP

26%

10%

Tim Hudak, PC

4%

Kathleen
Wynne, Liberal

10%

Which of the following would make the best Premier of Ontario?

18%

22%

19%

Kathleen Wynne, Liberal

Andrea Horwath, NDP

27%

12%

Patrick Brown, PC
Undecided/DK

Leader Favourables

36%
26%

Tim Hudak, PC
Undecided/DK

Below are the names of several individuals who have been

mentioned in the news recently

Andrea
Horwath, NDP

Best Premier

8%

Leader Favourables
Q

28

10%
34%

Strongly favourable
Neutral/Neither favourable nor unfavourable
Strongly unfavourable

11% 11% 8%
24%
6% 16%

24%

Below are the names of several individuals who have been

mentioned in the news recently

Andrea Horwath,
6%
NDP

30%

21%

15%

Patrick Brown, PC 6% 16%

18%

16%

Kathleen Wynne,
Liberal

Somewhat favourable
Somewhat unfavourable
DK/Do not recognize

7%

19%

11% 11% 5%

35%

8% 7% 6%

56%

6% 15%

44%

Strongly favourable
Neutral/Neither favourable nor unfavourable
Strongly unfavourable

Somewhat favourable
Somewhat unfavourable
DK/Do not recognize

7%

29

Where Does Electricity Fit?

Leading Issues: energy prices (19%) as second most

important issue following Total Economy (26%)
Q

30

What is the most important issue in Ontario today, in other words, the one that concerns you personally the most?
[asked of all respondents]

26%
19%
16%

9%
6%

Total Economy Energy prices

Health Care

Note: Refused and Dont Know (4%) not shown

Social Issues

Education

5%

4%

Remove
Infrastructure
Liberals from
power/Kathleen
Wynne - neg"

5%

3%

2%

Environment

Energy issues,
excluding
energy prices

Other

Majority (51%) feel party stands on electricity matter to

their vote - up 17 points in two years
Q

Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly

disagree with the following point of view:

There are a lot of other issues that are more important to me when
it comes to deciding which political party to vote for. It doesn't really
matter to me where a party stands on electricity.
[asked of all respondents]

Total Disagree: 51%

2016

19%

24%

3% 19%

32%

31

2016 Time-for-Change Segmentation

Total Disagree on Party Energy Stance:

Core Liberals

38%

Soft-Liberals

42%

Time-for-Change
Liberals

43%

Total Disagree: 34%

Uncertain

2014 10%

30%

21%

20%

14%
Soft Anti-Libs

Strongly agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Strongly disagree
Note: Dont Know / Refused not shown

Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree

23%

Hostile

57%
66%

Issue Priority: electricity prices most important to anti-Lib

groups and Time-for-a-change Liberals
Q

I am going to read to you a list of issues, and Id like you to tell me which is MOST
important to you? And which is the next most important?
[asked of all respondents]

Most Important

Next Most Important

Health care
Jobs and economic development
Electricity prices
Education
Climate change
The provincial deficit
Roads and Transit

25%
24%
24%
16%
18%
18%
11%
19%

Total

+36%
+30%

10%
7%

+17%

8%
7%

+15%

3%
6%

2016 Time-for-Change Segmentation

Electricity Prices
Core Liberals

9%

+49%

+41%

+8%

Note: Something else (3% combined), Dont know (1%) and Refused (<1%) not shown.

32

Soft-Liberals
Time-for-Change
Liberals
Uncertain
Soft Anti-Libs
Hostile

2%

20%
9%
19%
27%

33

Pocketbook items trump climate change concerns

We have segmented groups of respondents by the priority they place on three target issues: electricity prices, climate change and price and economic
development (short-hand: jobs) among the full list of issues.

Climate
Change (14%)

14%
Electricity Price
(30%)

35%

30%
20%
Other
Issues
(20%)

Jobs and Economic

Development
(35%)

34

Issues and Priorities

35

Ontarians have never been this angry

Q Would you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following statement?

Consumers are well-protected with respect to prices and the reliability and quality of electricity service in Ontario.
[asked of all respondents]

Strongly agree
Somewhat disagree

Somewhat agree
Strongly disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Dont know

Note: Refused not shown. The question in Nov 02 is asked differently, Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with
the following statement. Consumers are well protected with respect to prices and the reliability and quality of electricity service in Ontario.

2%

50%

20%
3%
19%

6%
SEPT'16

JAN '16

DEC '14

AUG '13

May '11

DEC '10

OCT '10

SEPT '10

JUN '10

JAN '10

JUN '09

JAN '08

SEPT '07

APR '07

OCT '06

JUL '06

APR '06

DEC '05

AUG '05

JUL '05

OCT '04

NOV '02

SEPT '02

AUG '02

JUL '02

JUN '02

APR '02

MAR '02

5% 6% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6% 3% 6% 6% 2% 5% 6% 4% 2% 6% 7% 5% 7%
7%8% 7% 6% 6% 7%
16%
20%
18%
17%
28%22%
21%29%
29%
25%25%31%27%
27%34%
32%
32%31%
28%
28%32%
32%
39%
38%
40%
40%
35%
28%
23%
28%
21%
31%
23%26%
28%28%28%29%22%21%
26%
23%25%24%
3%
30%
27%
27%
28%
4%
25%
18%
23%
35%
28%
25%
2% 4%
5% 4%
32%
45%44%
28%
38%
40%
39%
34%33%
41%35%
27%31%
36%
31%
32%
34%
33%
31%
29%
22%
30%32%
22%23%28%
22%
18%13%
10% 8% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 6% 5% 8% 6% 9% 7% 4% 4% 4% 4%
6%
2% 8% 8%6%

Government Electricity Plan: plurality (42%) now think electricity plan a

bad one; 55% of hostile group feels the same

36

From what you have read, seen or heard, would you say the provincial
governments plan for electricity is a good plan, a bad plan, do you not know
enough to say, or would you say the government really does not have a plan?

2016 Time-for-Change Segmentation

Those who say Bad Plan:

[asked of all respondents]

Core Liberals

2016 6%

30%

42%

20%

Soft-Liberals

Time-for-Change
Liberals

2014

13%

16%

15%

46%

Uncertain

Soft Anti-Libs

Good Plan
Bad Plan
Note: Dont Know / Refused not shown

Gov't has no plan

Don't know

Hostile

13%
3%

19%
14%
28%
55%

Electricity Priorities: In most areas, Ontarians want to see more

effort made to improve the electricity

37

Below is a list of key elements of the electricity system. Keeping in mind that doing more means higher electricity bills, please
indicate if you think the electricity system is making the right amount of effort, needs to do more, or needs to do less when it
comes to following things:
[asked of all respondents]

Replacing aging electricity infrastructure to protect the reliability of

the system.

34%

Making computer systems more resistant to cyber attacks.

42%

Increasing conservation to reduce demand.

Investing in new computer and phone systems to provide more

accurate and timely information to customers.
Note: Refused not shown.

A lot more

Somewhat more

8%

26%

28%

38%
28%

Neither more nor less

Somewhat less

+63%
+55%

8% 6% 10%

+53%

14%

11%

6%

12% 3% 9%

+51%
+48%

8%

10%

+38%

20%

13%

8%

+10%

A lot less

Don't know

8%
16%

8% 2%6%

10% 4% 9%

6% 7%

35%

21%
15%

8%

31%

43%

Strengthening the electricity grid to make it more resistant to

unusual weather events.

11%

27%

36%

Shifting to more environmentally friendly types of electricity

generation.

Building new generation to meet increasing demand.

39%

Net scores

14%

Long Term Energy Plan [Split Sample]: A strong majority dont

want to pay more for improvements
Q

The government is consulting now on a Long Term Energy Plan that will address all the issues we just discussed. Electricity prices
will have to rise to pay for that plan. The more we pay, the more quickly we can implement the plan. Would you support or
oppose implementing that plan if your electricity bill will grow by
[asked of all respondents; split sample equally into three parts]

2.5% a year for the next

10 years
[n=200]

5% a year for the next 10

years
[n=200]

10% a year for the next

10 years
[n=200]

9%

5%

9%

17%

1%

24%

25%

1%

13% 1%

17%

Strongly support
Neither support nor oppose
Strongly oppose

49%

18%

51%

59%
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Dont know

1%

1%

2%

38

Finding Efficiencies: Majority (56%) now think there are

enough savings to pay for improvements without higher rates
Q

Which of the following points of view is closer to your own?

[asked of all respondents]

The electricity system is reasonably efficient,

and if we want improvements we have to pay
more.
There is always room to find savings through
efficiency, but I dont think we can save enough to
pay for all the improvements we need.
I am sure there are more than enough
efficiency savings available to pay for all the
improvements we want without raising rates.

2016
2014

27%

2016

36%

2014

56%

2016

39%

2014
2016

Dont know

10%
14%

2014

7%
11%

39

Long Term Energy Plan: those who think the electricity system
is efficient more willing to pay for Long Term Energy Plan
Q

The government is consulting now on a Long Term Energy Plan that will address all the issues we just discussed. Electricity prices
will have to rise to pay for that plan. The more we pay, the more quickly we can implement the plan. Would you support or
oppose implementing that plan if your electricity bill will grow by [2.5%/5%/10%] a year for the next 10 years? BY Perception of
waste [asked of all respondents; split sample equally into three parts]

Efficient electricity system, have to

pay more for improvements

There's room to find savings

through efficiency, but can't save
enough to pay for all
improvements
There're enough efficiency savings,
no need to raise rates for
improvements

Strongly support
Somewhat oppose
Note: Refused (<1%) not shown

32%

9%

37%

27%

3% 12% 1% 16%
Somewhat support
Strongly oppose

1%

18%

27%

34%

68%
Neither support nor oppose
Dont know

12% 2%

2%

40

41

Cyber Security

Cyber attacks on gas and electricity systems: 1-in-4 (26%) say

its already happening, just 14% say its not likely to occur
Q

How likely do you think it is that hackers will try and attack computer systems in
the natural gas and electricity systems? Would you say
[asked of all respondents]

Time-for-Change Segmentation
Those who say its already
happening at least occasionally:

Soft-Liberals

9%
It's already
happening
on a
frequent
basis

16%

21%

It's already
happening
on an
occasional
basis

It's very
likely to
occur

27%

14%

12%

It's
It's not likely Don't Know
somewhat
to occur
likely to
occur

Time-for-Change
Liberals
Uncertain

Soft Anti-Libs

Hostile
Note: Refused (<1%) not shown.

33%

Core Liberals

26% Already
Happening

12%

18%
35%
24%
28%

42

Investing in Security: plurality think security systems should

make protecting infrastructure 1st priority over consumer data
Q

When natural gas and electricity utilities invest in making their security systems more
secure, what should be their first priority?
[asked of all respondents]

Smith says:

Jones says:

Protecting the
energy system from
cyber-attacks on the
computers systems
that operate energy
infrastructure.

36%

Protecting the
energy system from
cyber-attacks on the
computers systems
that store personal
consumer data.

Time-for-Change Segmentation
Those who say protect systems that
operate infrastructure:
Core Liberals

46%
46% Agree
with Smith
Note: Both (6%) and Refused (1%) not shown.

10%

10% Dont
Know

53%

Soft-Liberals

Time-for-Change
Liberals
Uncertain

36% Agree
with Jones

48%

36%
31%

Soft Anti-Libs

50%

Hostile

50%

43

Additional Payments for Increased Security: majority oppose

any increase
Q

Keeping up with new developments in computer security can be expensive. Would

you support or oppose paying an additional [$2/$5] a month on your gas and
electricity bills to ensure your utility is using the most up to date computer
technology and software? Would you say you

44

Time-for-Change Segmentation
Those who say oppose [average of $2
and $5 monthly increase]:

[asked of all respondents; split sample into two equal parts]

Core Liberals

Additional
$2 a month

13%

26%

1%

20%

36%

Soft-Liberals

40%
54%

[n=300]

Additional
$5 a month

Time-for-Change
Liberals

12%

23%

3%

18%

41%

Uncertain

[n=300]

Strongly support
Neither support nor oppose
Strongly oppose

Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Dont know

Soft Anti-Libs

Hostile

46%
69%

59%
73%

Additional Payments for Increased Security: those who say

the system is efficient more willing to pay for cyber security
Q

Keeping up with new developments in computer security can be expensive. Would you support or oppose paying an additional
[$2/$5] a month on your gas and electricity bills to ensure your utility is using the most up to date computer technology and
software? Would you say you BY Perception of waste
[asked of all respondents; split sample into two equal parts]

Efficient electricity system, have to pay

more for improvements

There's room to find savings through

efficiency, but can't save enough to pay
for all improvements

There're enough efficiency savings, no

need to raise rates for improvements

Strongly support
Somewhat oppose
Note: Refused (<1%) not shown

34%

36%

15%

8%

38%

18%

4%

Somewhat support
Strongly oppose

19%

1%

14%

20%

12% 3%

23%

51%

Neither support nor oppose

Dont know

2%

1%

45

Willingness to pay: nearly half of those who think cyber

attacks are happening frequently oppose paying more
Q

46

Keeping up with new developments in computer security can be expensive. Would you support or oppose paying an additional
[$2/$5] a month on your gas and electricity bills to ensure your utility is using the most up to date computer technology and
software? Would you say you BY How likely do you think it is that hackers will try and attack computer systems in the natural gas
and electricity systems? Would you say [asked of all respondents]

It's already happening

on a frequent basis

14%

It's already happening

on an occasional basis

16%

It's very likely to occur

18%

It's somewhat likely

to occur

23%

9%

11%
1%

26%

13%

It's not likely to occur 3%

Don't know

27%

33%

13%

24%
19%

2%

46%
23%

31%

7%

15%

33%

1%

2%

19%

30%

1%

59%
19%

44%

Strongly support

Somewhat support

Neither support nor oppose

Somewhat oppose

Strongly oppose

Don't know

Note: Refused (<1%) not shown

5%

8%

Cap-and-Trade

RSH: Cap and Trade Program: most dont know the issue and
those that do are conflicted; Core libs most supportive of it
Q

The Ontario government has a plan to introduce a Cap and Trade

program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Time-for-Change Segmentation
Those who say Good thing

From what you have read, seen or heard or from your first impression,
does introducing a Cap and Trade program to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions in Ontario sound like a good thing or a bad thing or do you not
know enough to say?

Core Liberals

[asked of all respondents]

Soft-Liberals

57%

22%

20%

Time-for-Change
Liberals

16%

Uncertain

18%

22%
Soft Anti-Libs

Good thing

40%

Bad thing

Don't know/Don't know

enough to say

Hostile

25%
12%

48

The Cost of Carbon Pricing: majority oppose all bill increase for
cap and trade; TfC and Core Libs most supportive of increase

49

Cap and trade will create a price for carbon in the energy we use. This includes carbonbased electricity generation such as natural gas, coal or oil, home heating fuels and
gasoline and diesel used in cars and trucks.
Would you support or oppose implementing that plan if your energy bills will grow by
5%/10%/15% a year for the next 10 years? Would you say you

9%

19%

5%

23%

42%

31%

Core Liberals

[asked of all respondents; split sample equally into three parts]

5% a year for the

next 10 years

Time-for-Change Segmentation
Those who say support [average of all
three increases]

3%

24%

Soft-Liberals

[n=200]

10% a year for

the next 10 years 4% 12% 0%

Time-for-Change
Liberals

21%

58%

4%
Uncertain

[n=200]

15% a year for

6% 9% 3% 16%
the next 10 years
[n=200]

Strongly support
Neither support nor oppose
Strongly oppose

61%
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Dont know

32%

5%

Soft Anti-Libs

Hostile

13%
18%
6%

The Cost of Carbon Pricing: those who say the system is

efficient more willing to pay for cap and trade
Q

50

Cap and trade will create a price for carbon in the energy we use. This includes carbon-based electricity generation such as natural
gas, coal or oil, home heating fuels and gasoline and diesel used in cars and trucks.
Would you support or oppose implementing that plan if your energy bills will grow by [5%/10%/15%] a year for the next 10 years?
Would you say you BY Perception of waste
[asked of all respondents; split sample equally into three parts]

Efficient electricity system, have to

pay more for improvements

There's room to find savings

through efficiency, but can't save
enough to pay for all improvements

25%

5%

19%

There're enough efficiency savings,

no need to raise rates for 3% 8% 3%
improvements

28%

1%

5%

18%

26%

44%

18%

64%

Strongly support

Somewhat support

Neither support nor oppose

Somewhat oppose

Strongly oppose

Dont know

Note: Refused (<1%) not shown

22%

5%

3%

Provincial governments role in climate change: nearly two-thirds

(63%) say Ontario should leave climate change to federal government
Q

People have different points of view about what the provincial government can or
should do when it comes to climate change. Which of the following is closest to your
point of view?

51

Time-for-Change Segmentation
Those who say leave to federal govt

[asked of all respondents]

Core Liberals

Some/other people say

that the actions of any
given province cant
make any real difference
to the problem of climate
change and that Ontario
should leave climate
change to the federal
government working
together with other
countries.

37%
63%

Soft-Liberals

Time-for-Change
Liberals
Uncertain

Soft Anti-Libs
Other/some people say that climate change is a critical
issue and it is a good idea for Ontario to take a
leadership role, even if that means higher energy costs
in Ontario than in neighbouring states and provinces.

Hostile

35%
42%

65%
47%
67%
85%

Governments role in climate change: majority of TfC Libs and

opposition think Ontario should leave climate change to federal govt

Govt Role

Time-For-Change Segmentation
Core Libs

Soft
Libs

Soft AntiTfC Libs Uncertain

Libs

the actions of any given province

cant make any real difference to the
problem of climate change and that
Ontario should leave climate change
to the federal government working
together with other countries.

35%

42%

65%

47%

67%

85%

Climate change is a critical issue

and it is a good idea for Ontario to
take a leadership role, even if that
means higher energy costs in Ontario
than in neighbouring states and
provinces.

65%

58%

35%

53%

33%

15%

Hostile

52

53

Energy Politics

Priority by ID: roughly half of PC (51%) and NDP-identifiers (48%) and

a plurality of Liberal (31%) and Unaligned (31%) prioritize low rates
Q

And which of these priorities for the electricity system is the most important to you?
[asked of all respondents]

Party ID

% who feel the electricity system

needs to do more

Provincial
Wide

PC

Liberal

NDP

Other

Unaligned

Planning to ensure a reliable

energy system for the future.

17%

20%

18%

9%

14%

16%

Keeping natural gas and electricity

rates down

40%

51%

31%

48%

21%

36%

Reducing the impact of the energy

system on the environment.

19%

5%

23%

24%

43%

24%

Using energy as a way of creating

jobs and economic growth.

21%

22%

27%

18%

13%

17%

Dont Know

2%

1%

2%

1%

5%

5%

Note: Refused (1%) not shown

54

Party Best by Top Priority: among those who think reducing impact on
environment most important, Liberals hold decisive lead
Q

Thinking about the three main political parties in Ontario which party do you think is best when it comes to the following
things? WITH And which of these priorities for the electricity system is the most important to you?
[asked of all respondents]

Planning to ensure a
reliable energy system
for the future.

Picked as most
important priority

2016 topline
Keeping natural gas and
electricity rates down.

25%

2016 topline

Picked as most
important priority

24%

15%

33%

24%

13%

32%

4%

2016 topline
Reducing the impact of the
Picked as most
energy system on the
important priority
environment.
2016 topline
Using energy as a way of
creating jobs and economic Picked as most
important priority
growth.

26%
32%
Liberal

Note: On most important priority, Dont know (2%), Refused (1%).

25%
NDP

30%
11%

Undecided

26%
None

10%
8%
9%

31%

11%
26%

PC

30%

23%

9%
14%

27%

23%
0%

23%
27%

20%
14%

40%

5%
17%

40%
24%

27%

6%

8%
5%

55

Throne Speech: strong majority support all three new electricity

initiatives raised in throne speech
Q

56

In last weeks throne speech, the provincial government announced new initiatives for electricity. Please indicate if you
strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose each of those initiatives:
[asked of all respondents]

A rebate to residential consumers equal to

the provincial portion of the HST on the bill
providing an annual savings of $130 a year
for a typical Ontario household.

36%

35%

Increasing the existing rural electricity

support to provide an additional average
savings of approximately $27 a month for
rural households.

37%

35%

8%

12% 6%

38%

9%

9%

Expanding a program that incents large

industrial customers to shift their
electricity usage from periods of peak
demand with savings up to 34%.

Note: Refused (1%) not shown

35%
Strongly support

Somewhat support

Strongly oppose

Dont know

8%

14%

5%

9%

Somewhat oppose

Liberal Government Initiatives: despite overall support for initiatives,

left Ontarians feeling less likely to vote Liberal; TfC Libs more supportive
57

After hearing about these initiatives from Kathleen Wynnes provincial Liberal
government, do they leave you feeling a lot more likely to vote Liberal, somewhat
more likely, somewhat less likely or a lot less likely to vote Liberal?
[asked of all respondents]

Time-for-Change Segmentation
Those who say more likely

51% Less Likely

84%

Core Liberals

36% More Likely

36%
28%
15%
8%

A lot more
Somewhat Somewhat less A lot less likely
likely to vote more likely to likely to vote to vote Liberal
Liberal
vote Liberal
Liberal
Note: Refused (3%) not shown

49%

Soft-Liberals

Time-for-Change
Liberals

11%
Uncertain

Don't Know

59%
9%
22%

Soft Anti-Libs

Hostile

4%

58

Final Thoughts
1. Energy is a critical political issue at this juncture.
Electricity is a top issue in top of mind concerns
Consumers are less likely to feel protected than ever before
More voters say they will vote on electricity than before.

2. Politically, the government trails the opposition with more leadership

weakness than in 2014 and with more NDP/PC switchers than in 2014.
3. The public sees the need for improvements in the electricity system, but
increasing numbers feel the electricity system already has enough money
if only it reduced waste and mismanagement.
4. The government cap and trade position may work for core Liberals but
puts swing voters at risk.
5. The Throne Speech initiatives rally both core Liberals and Swing Liberals.

Research-based strategic advice.

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Greg Lyle
President
416-642-6429
glyle@innovativeresearch.ca
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