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Report72017|September2016
50
40
Inflation
30
20
10
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
FIGURE 1
Fares Have Grown Faster than
Inflation Since 2007
B. Utilization Trends
Since 1991, subway ridership has grown by
77 percent as the subway system has become
more reliable and crime has been reduced.
Subway ridership is expected to reach 1.77 billion
riders in 2016 (see Figure 2), which is the highest
level since 1949. Ridership has grown at an
average annual rate of 2 percent over the past six
years, but is projected to grow more slowly during
the financial plan period.
After setting a record in 2008, ridership on the
Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) fell by 6.3 million
riders (7.2 percent) over the next three years
because of the recession (see Figure 3).
Ridership resumed growing in 2012 and set a
new record of 87.6 million riders in 2015. The July
Plan assumes it will continue to grow and will
exceed 90 million riders by 2020.
The Metro-North Railroad did not experience a
ridership decline as sharp as the LIRRs during
the recession (see Figure 4), and its ridership has
been growing faster. Over the past 30 years,
Metro-North ridership has grown by more than
70 percent, setting a record of 84.3 million riders
in 2015. The July Plan assumes that Metro-North
ridership will continue to set new records and will
reach nearly 90 million riders by 2020.
Report72017
FIGURE 3
LIRR Ridership
1.8
100
1.6
90
Millions of Riders
Billions of Riders
FIGURE 2
Subway Ridership
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
70
60
0.6
50
0.4
40
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1991
FIGURE 4
Metro-North Ridership
FIGURE 5
Bridge & Tunnel Crossings
100
320
Millions of Crossings
Millions of Riders
80
90
80
70
60
50
310
300
290
280
270
260
40
250
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1991
2020*
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
C. Revenue Trends
More than half of the cost of the MTA is funded
from fares and tolls, and more than one-third is
funded with dedicated taxes. Government
subsidies and other revenue sources account for
12 percent.
Overall, the July Plan assumes that revenues will
grow at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent
between 2015 and 2020 to reach $16.8 billion.
These estimates assume uninterrupted growth in
the regional economy, and biennial fare and toll
increases of 4 percent. The July Plan does not
anticipate an increase in operating subsidies from
the State or the City.
To help fund the MTAs operations, New York
State has imposed taxes on payrolls, real estate
transactions, petroleum businesses and the sale
of certain goods and services. Dedicated taxes
and fees are expected to account for 36 percent
3
FIGURE 6
MTA Dedicated Tax Revenues
MMTOA
Payroll Mobility Tax
Billions of Dollars
5
4
3
2
1
0
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
Report72017
Billions of Dollars
D. Expenditure Trends
*MTA forecast
FIGURE 8
Energy Costs
900
Millions of Dollars
750
600
450
300
150
0
2020*
2019*
2018*
2017*
2016*
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
*MTA forecast
Sources: Metropolitan Transportation Authority; OSC analysis
Report72017
2020*
2019*
2018*
2017*
2016*
2015
2014
2013
2012
September2016
2011
0.0
2010
0.5
2009
1.0
2008
MTA
$11.8
New York
City
$2.5
1.5
2007
New York
State
$8.3
2.0
2006
Federal
$6.9
2.5
2005
(in billions)
3.0
2004
FIGURE 9
Sources of Capital Funding
3.5
2003
FIGURE 10
Debt Service
Billions of Dollars
*MTA forecast
Sources: Metropolitan Transportation Authority; OSC analysis
FIGURE 11
Allocation of Capital Resources
(in billions)
Bridges & Tunnels
$2.9
Expansion Projects
$5.0
Other
$0.6
Metro-North
$2.3
LIRR
$2.8
MMTOA taxes include sales taxes, a temporary corporate surcharge, a portion of the statewide tax on petroleum
businesses, and a statewide corporate franchise tax on certain transportation and transmission companies.
Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority employees and most New York City Transit employees belong to NYCERS.
Prepared by the Office of the State Deputy Comptroller for the City of New York
Office of the New York State Comptroller
110 State Street, 15th Floor, Albany, NY 12236
(518) 474-4015
www.osc.state.ny.us