38

ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY THEOHY

3
(a)

.,:

,i;
,rs

,i*,

o.276
o.E2

ggprive

,';.

'"q
:,c:

.0.o8

rr',o
,\)",\o
t_
,a/ \/

-J'

'"

Acceptable

0.270

,,J\{tn
\->

J"'
\d
,d ''"' 'n,,-t
i,,-r {:}.1,1
.:\Lu.i

"
,t*
,*l-{',;r'u
,'diru )t

Figure

B.' Joe Cardner smokes three packs of cigarettes daily.

0.030
0.930 0.070

0.10

28.

Probablity Tree

*t-- 2.2

The manager of a poultry distribution company is forced to make a decision between sending a customer's order out in one large truck or in two
small trucks. The critical issue is that the customer is having a doorcrasher sale, and a delay in any part pf the shipment might cause the
customer to switch suppliers. The company mechanic feels that the big
truck has an 80Vo chance of making the delivery oR time, whereas the
two small trucks have a 95s/s chance when they are in top shape. The
mechanic feels that the chances are,seyen' to two in favor of the small
trucks being in top shape. What str'l the manager do? Assume the
9590 and 7:2 odds apply to both small trucks together, not each truck
individually. Also assume that the probability of the small trucks making
an on-time delivery if they are not in shape equals zero.

2.3

A fellow student has asked your advice about a problem. She is attempting to find the individual probabilities for each possible outcome for
three flips of a fair coin. These probabilities are:

'

machine produced the product. These are conditional probabilities. Joint

probabilities are shown at the terminal points of the tree. Marginal probabilities are shown at the bottom right hand of the tree and are computed by summing the appropriate joint probabilities.
The probability that the item is not defective is 0.930, which is the sum of
the various ways acceptable items are produced. If it is defective, the probabil-

ity it came from machine,4 is

P(machine.,4 | defective)

t,

't', ,'lrd
B I acceptable) =
,,)P(machine
\j"

P(machine

0'016

0.070

i\\\'

anddefective,

= o.2286

HHH
HHT
}ITH
THH (7) (0.5F = 0.875
TTH
HTT
TTT

P(machine B and acceptable)

P(acceptable)

rrl

- ,.'
\"
..::=

0'276
0.930

0.2968

Your .friend states that mutualy exclusive and collectively exhaustive

if any, can you provide? ,

events must sum to one, What solution,

EXERCSES
2.4

2.1

A:

John Doe is elected President of the United States.

B.' John Doe is nominated by the Democratic Party for President of
the United States.
(b) A: an MBA student receives an A in a quantitative course.
B.' an MBA has an undergraduate degree in engineeri.ng.
(c) ,,4.' rain in a particular small town next September l.
.8.' rain in the same town last September l.
(d) A: a child has diabetes.
B.' the child's parents have diabetes.
(e) l.' your professor weighs more than 200 poun{s.
B.' your professor has an IQ greater than 100.
(f) 1.' Joe Cardner dies from lung cancer.

0.384

AccePjry

EXERCISES 39

Which of the following events, A and B, would you consider to be independent and which dependent? Justify your decision in each case.

Assume that your younger brother has bet you that you cannot play three
l8-hole rounds of golf and win two in a row against him and the country
club champion. The probability you will beat your brother is 0.9, but the

..tr;

40

., EXERCISES 41

ELEMENTARYPRoBABILITYTHEORY

'i',
,r;,,,

probability that you will beat the champion is only 0.3. You may play
the three' rounds, as brother-champion-brother or champion-brotherchampion, Which series would you choose to maximize the probability
of winning the bet? Why? Assume that extra holes will be played in each
match, if necessary, so that ties are impossible.

case the

{
lilll.,:'
''l .rt

ili:;
T.*l: .
. ?;:
,&g

An executive in a company is very concerned about the possibility of an

*)"?'5
incorrect cost estimate on the various jobs on which he bids. The company practice in estimating job costs is to have one engineer estimate the
cost for an entire project and then have two other engineers go over the
figures independently. The probablity that the first engineer will make a
mistake is only 590, because he is very careful when he figures an entire
project cost. The two engineers who check the figures each has a probability of catching all mistakes of only 6090, because they do not devote

decision with probability P You may choose to have a jury rial, in which
jury is composed of three people. The first member of the jury
makes decisions randomly and is equally likely to choose guilty or innocent. The other two members make the correct d_ecision with probability
4 the same probability as the judge. Decisions by these jury members
are independent events. Majority rules in the jury decision. If you want
to maximize the probability of being found innocent, should you choose
the judge or the jury? Is your decision influenced by the value of P?

.,1

$;
r&.1
'r-i:ti

.r{ir:

,!n

l:ll
:r:t,
i ll,',
i:
i.:

2.9

Suppose

:i,:
:ri.
.

Harvest

:!l::

Weather

much time to the job and take many estimates for granted.
(a) What is the probability that the executive will base his bid on an
incorrect cost estimate?
(b) On the average, how many cost estimates will be incorrect per 1000?
(c) What type of probability is stated in part (a)?
(d) What is the probability that the first engineer will make a mistake

which are false? Why?

(c)

P(llB) =

(il A and I

vest?

'

2.7

A student on probation is concerned about a possible tuition increase.

The student reasons that an increase will mean fewer students, causing
the College of Business to lower the required entrance grade-point level

to a point where she can be readmitted. The student feels the joint probability of a tuition increase and a lowering of the required business CPA
is 3090. The joint probability of no tuition hike and also no lowering of
the business GPA is felt to be 250/s.The student feels the possibility of a
raise in tuition is 0.6. What is the probability that the business CPA will
be lowered, given that there was a tuition hike?
2.E

Assume that you are about to face trial on a charge of which you are
innocent. You maj'choose to be tried by the judge who makes the corect

weather is good?

(c) Are rveather and

size

of harvest statistically independent? Why?

2.10 A

are dependent events

0.28
0.42

(b) What is the conditional probability of a large harvest given that the

(a) P(AB) = P(A) x P(B)

(b) P(A) = I - P(B)

(d, P(AIB) = P(BIA)

(e) P(AIB) + P(BI) = P() + P(B)

0.t2 0.18

Small

(a) What is the marginal probability of good weather? Of a small har-

and B are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events. Neither z4 nor ,B is an impossib'le or certain event (probabilities of zero or I
are not admissible). Which of the following statements are true and

Large

Good
Bad

that will be detected by later investigation?

2.6

that the following table represents the probabilities of good

weather for a growing season and the size of the harvest:

'.

2.ll

and B are events. The probability of A is 0.4 and the probability of

B is 0.5. The probability that neither event will occur is 0.3.
(a) What is the probability that both .4 and B will occur?
(b) What is the probability of A given B?
(c) What is the probability of B given not A?
(d) What is the probability of A and B?
(e) Are A and I independent events? Why?

Suppose that an urn contains 7 black balls and 3 white balls. Three balls
are drawn at random with each ball being put back into the urn before
the next is drawn.

(a) How many different ordered combinations exist for the color of the
three balls drawn?

(b) Are the combinations mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive?

(c) Do the individual probabilities of each combination listed in part

sum to l?

2.12 X

and Y are two independent events. The probability of

the probability of Y is 0.6.

is 0.3 and

42

ELEMENTARY PRoEABILITY THEoRY

(a) What is the probabiliry rhat neither X nor y will occur?

(b) What is the conditional probability of X given y?
(c) What is the probability of X or Y?
(d) What is the probability of ) given not X?
(e) What is the probability of Y given both X and y?

(f)

Are

EXERCIES 43

(h) Are

stress and high blood pressure statistically independent?

Does stress cause high blood pressure?
(Hint: Draw a Venn diagram.)

(i)

'
2.15

and )/ mutually exclusive events? Why?

(g) Are X and I/ collectively exhaustive events? Why?

2.13 ln a particular

graduating class of MBA students, 30go have degrees in

engineering and 8090 have industrial experience. What percent of the
class are not engineers and have no industrial experignce? Be very careful of your assumptions.

You have decided to g fishing this weekend and are assessing the probabilities of the various outcomes. The success of a fishing trip is de finecl
in terms of the size of the largest fish caught. Fish fall into two categories. They may be big enough to be termed ,,whoppers,' or they may
be small and are therefore "noth.ing to brag about." Fishing success
depends a great deal upon the weather, as reflected in the accompanying
table of probabilities. Your best estimates of the weather conditions this
weekend are:

2.14 A

v-
//

university researcher has been trying to relate the occurrence of various types of illness with a stress measurement that she and a group of
associates have developed. The test has been given to several hundred
people who also fill out a form indicating the kinds of physical problems
they are having. A scan of the results shows the following relationships
between the three events (stress, high blood pressure, and arthritis).

P(excellent)

= 0.4

P(fair) = 0.5

P(Poor)

= 0.1

(a) What is the probability of catching a whopper?

(b) What is the probability that you will get norhing to brag about?
(c) You come back from the fishing trip with a terrible sunburn and a
whopper. The sunburn indicates that the weather was very sunny
and therefore poor as far as fishing goes. your wife (husband) suspects that you didn't really go fishing ar all" She (he) reasons that
you got the sunburn from a nearby beach and that you got the

l.

Five percent had all three problems.

2. Ten percent had high blood pressure and were under stress but had
no arthritis.
3. Five percent had arthritis and high blood pressure but no stress.
4. Thirty percent had only high blood pressure.
5. Six percent had arthritis and were under stress but had no high

whopper at the fish market on the way home from the beach. What
is the probability that the weather was poor at the fishing hole given

that a whopper was caught?

blood pressure.

6, Fifteen percent had only arthritis.

7. Nine percent had only stress.
8. Twenty percent had none.of the three problems.

Probability
Nothing to
Weather Conditions

For this group of patients:

(a) What is the marginal probability of high blood pressure?
(b) What is the marginal probability of arthritis?
(c) What is the marginal probability of being under stress?
(d) Civen that a person is under stress, what is the probability that the
person also has high blood pressure?
(e) Given that the person is under stress, what is the probability that
the person also has arthritis?
Given that a person has arthritis, what is the probability that the
person also has high blood pressure?
(g) Are stress and arthritis statistically independent?

(f)

Excellent

Fair
Poor

2.16

lYhopper

Brog About

0.7
0.4
0.2

0.6

0.3
0.8

The state Highway Patrol has reported that on a particular stretch of

highway 5090 f the cars exceed the posted speed limit by five miles per
hour. Twenty-five percent of the cars exceed the posted limit by more
than five miles per hour. A detailed analysis of the report shows that
440o of the cars exceeding the posted limit by five miles per hour were
foreign sports cars.'Thirty percent of the cars exceeding the limit by
more than five miles per hour were foreign sports cars. Only 5go of the
cars obeying the posted,speed limit were foreign sports cars.

44

ELEMENIAPypaoBABtLtryrHEoRy

EXERCISES 45

(a) A highway patrolman hiding behind an overpass can see cars coming around a curve one half mile down the road. The patrolman

(a) what types of probabilities are found along the lowest row and in

cannot make out the type of car on the curve and also cannot check
the speed because the car is not coming directly toward him. What
is the best estimate that the patrolman can make of the probability
' that the approaching car is a foreign sports car?
(b) If the patrolman has some binoculars and can see that the approaching car is a sports car, what is the probability that the car is exceeding the speed limit by more than five miles per hour?

(b) what is the probability of a poor goff performance given that you
had a good day at the office? What type of probability is this?
(c) what are the conditionat probabilities of each type of day at the

(c)

If

the patrolman is out cafching speeders at night and his radar

equipment shows that the approaching car is going 90 miles per
hour, what is the probability that the car is a foreign sports car?
Assume that the posted speed for night driving is 55 rniles per hour.
(d) What is the probability that a car is exceeding rhe limit by five miles
per hour and is also a foreign sports car?
(e) What kind of probabilities are in parts (a), (b), (c), and (d)?

2.17 c and A Trucking hauls produce between two

large cities. The cities are

separated by a mountain range that is heavily snowpacked in the winter.
The manager of C and A is deciding whether or not to accept a new
' contract that requires an on-time delivery rate of at least 5090. The road
between the two cities is closed any time there is a blizzard. In a light
snowstorm drivers get through the mountain pass without any delay
: 8090 of the time, On a sunny day the snow on the mountain road begins
to melt and causes several accidents because of the slippery conditions.
I Drivers are delayed because of accidents about 30go of the time on
sunny days. Over the past several years, the weather in the mountain
' range has been
sunny 2090 of the time, light snowstorms 50go of the
time, and blizzard, conditions 30go of the time.
(a) Can the manager expect to make the required on-time delivery rate

of the proposed contract?

(b) Suppose that a customer is planning a trip between the two cities.
If the customer's order is late, what are the chances of a blizzard in
the mountain pass? What is the probability that the weather is sunny
the order is late?

if
2.18

suppose that the following table represents the probabilities for a good
day at the office and your performance on the golf course.

Performance

High

Medium Low

Total

Did not participate

2A

35

l5

70

Did participate
Total

l0

l0

30

45

20

25
95

the far right-hand column?

office given that you were fantastic on the golf course?

(d) Is your golf performance independent of your day at the office?
whv?

2.19

The grade-point averages ofseveral athletes have been dangerosly low,

according to the football coach at an eastern colleg. The star fullback,
crusher conroy, has caused the coach considerabre worry because conroy is currently carrying a I.5 average. crusher will lose his eligibility
if he cannot raise his grade-point average, The coach has encouraged
crusher to quit his part-time job so that more time can be devoted to
schoolwork. You have been asked to study the dispute, and the following facts become available to you. Eighty percent of the students at
the college earn a 2.0 or better grade-point average per quarter. Fifteen
percent of the students who cannot make a 2.0 average also do not
work, while 3090 of the students who have a z.a or better average also
work. The athletic d:rector has agreed to keep crusher on the team if
he can get at least a 2.0 average for the next quarter.

(a) what

(b)

is the probabilify of having a2.0 or better grade-point average

given that a student does not work?
what is the probability of havin ga2.0or better grade-point average
given that a student works?

(c) Are working and grade point statistically independent?

(d) What do you recommend?

,2-20 In a particular group of people, three fifths have never been west of the
Mississippi. Two-fifths do not have coilege degrees. If one+hird sf
those who have rot been west of the Mississippi do not have corege
degrees, what fraction of those who have college degrees have never
been west of the Mississippi? Are the events ',never bgen west of the
Mississippi" and "have coltege degree" indepe+den or dependent
events? Why?

2.21 rhere

are l0 letters on your desk which you are about to read. Four o[
the letters contain job offers and six contain diplomatic rejections such
as "' . . and so will keep your rsum on file for further reference in
case . . ." The letters are placed ranclomly in a stack ancl you begin to
read them, starting with the top.
(a) What is the probability that the flirst letter will be an offer?
(b) what is the probability that the last letter read will nor be an offer,
given that you have not yet started reading?

46

EXERCISES 47

ELEMENTARY PROtsABILITY THEOHY

(c) what is the probability that the first two contain one
offer and one
rejection?

(d) what is the probability that you will read one or more
offers before

2.24 Eighty percent of the patients who are admitted to a large hospital have
. health insurance. The remaining Z09o do not have any insurance.
Ninety percent of the insued patient's bills are resolved within 90 days.
Only 6090 of the uninsured patient's bills are resolved within 90 days.
A recently admitted patient's file is selected at random. What is the
probability of each of the following events?
(a) The individual chosen was insured but took longer than 90 days to

the seventh letter is read?

)r,

For a certain year, an insurance company has classilied the

accident
of 500 drivers according to the size of the car insured and the
length of time the driver has been licensed to drive as shown in
the
record

resolve the bill.

(b) The individual chosen took less than 90 days to resolve the bill.
(c) Because of a clerical error the insurance information on the selected
file was omitted. However, the patient's bill was resolv.ed within 90

accompanying table.

Golf Performance
Day at the Office
Cood
Average

Lousy

Total

Fsntqstic Ususl
0.05
0.15 "

0.10
0.20
0.35

0.r5
0.10
0.40

poor

Total

0.10

0.30
0.35
0.35

0.10
o.os

days. What is the probability that the person was insured?

2.25 A

and .8 are distinct events. The probability that.4 will occur is 4090.
The probability that B will occur is 8090, A and .8 are collectively exhaustive. events.

(a) What is the probability that both,4 and will occur?

^B
(b) What is the probability that I will occur given the occurrence of ,4 ?
(c) What is the probability that I will occur given the nonoccurrence

0.25

For this group of drivers:

(a) what is the probabiliry that a driver had no accidents? whar

type
of probability is this (marginal, condirional, or joint)? Why?
(b) what is the probability that a new driver had at least one
accident?

af B?
(d) Are

2.26

What type of probabilty is this? Why?

(c) what is the probability fhat the driver had no accidents
and drove
a small car? What type of probability is this? Why?
(d) Is the occurrence of at least one accident and the size of car
independent or dependent events? Why?

(e) Is the occurrence of-at least ofie accident and

the experience of the
driver independent r dependent events? Why?
(f) Is the occurrence of at least one accident independent of both the
size of the car and the experience of the driveri pl."s. discuss your
conclusion.

2'23

of 30 people is selected randomry from your organization.

what is the probabiliry rhat all of these people haue iiff"..ni birthdays
f--cr.oup

(same month and same day but not the same year)?
If you were offered
a bet of, sar $25 that there would be at reast one matching
set of birthdays, would you accept the bet?
(Hint: compute the probabirity rhat alr 30 birthdays wourd be different

and then subtract from one to obtain the probability that there wourd
be at least one matching birthday.)
Where would you estimate the bet to be .1fair,,' that is, the size of
the
group where the'probability of no matches in birthdays
is 50go?

and

independent eyents? How do you know?

Sixty percent of the employees in a certain department are female. One

third of the females drive foreign cars. The rest of the females drive
domestic cars. Twenty-five percent of the males in the department drive
foreign cars. One person is randomly selected from the departmental
files. Use this inforrnation to construct a probability table, then calculate each of the following probabilities:
(a) P(foreign car).
(b) P(female and domestic car).
(c) P(maleldomestic car).
(d) Are the events female and foreign car owner independent? Why or
why not?

2.27 A card is randomly drawn from

an ordinary deck of 52 cards. The suit

and value of the card are observed. Classify each of the following probabilities as being either marginal, joint, or conditional probabilities.
(a) P(ace of hearts)
(b) P(ten)
(c) P(king knowing that it is a face card)
(d) P(not a face card)
(e) P(red suit)

(f)

P(black five)

48

ELEMENTARY

pnogABtury rHEoRy

EXERCTSES 49

2.28 h

an attempt to increase the effectiveness of its teachers, a school district is considering adopting an experimental training program. A study
" is to be conducted to determine the vatue or tre progra,i. A group of
' teachers is randomly selected from all teachers nie istrict tJ partici_
' p.ate in the program. Those teachers not selected ia noi prticiiu," in
'' the prograrr. At the end of the schoor year each teacher's perfoimance
is evaluated. use the folrowing tabre to calculate each of the probabil-

(e) Why do part (a) and part (b) yield different answers?

(d) What is the probability of obtaining a total of

(e) What is the probability of obtaining a total of six dots on rhe two
dice?

(f)

ities:

Small
Experienced driver
At leat one accident
No accidents

Total

At least one accident

Total
Grand total

t5

'85
275

40

360

35

20
40

40

60

80

420

(a) What is the marginal probability of high performance?

(b) what is the probability of high performance given participation

in

2'2g A

and B are distincr evenrs. The probabir ity of Ais 0;6. The probability
of I is 0.8. The probability of neither event is 0.1.

(a) What is the probabiliry of A and B?

(b) What is the probability of A or B?
(c) What is the probability of B given A?
(d) Are events I and B statistically indepenrlent? How
multaneously.

consists of

of dots

dice are not rolled simultaneously.

(a) Before either die is rolled, what is the probability of obtaining a
total of three dots?
(b) After the red die is rolled, it is noted rhat two dots appear on the
upper face. Given this information, what is the probability of obtaining a total of three dots by rolling the green die?
(c) After the red die is rolled, it is noted that six dots appear on the
upper face. Given this information, what is the probability of obtaining a total of three dots by rolling the green die?
(d) What types of probabilities are calculated in parts (b) and (c)?
(e) Are the events "total ofthree dots,, and .,red six,'diseussed in part
(c) statistically independent? Why or why not?

the program?
(c) What is the marginal probability of medium perforrnance?
(d) what is the probabrtity of medium peiformance given participation
in the progrm?
(e) What is the marginal probability of low performance?
(f) what is the probabirity of row performance given participation in
the program?

2'30 An experiment

What is the probability of l,rolling doubles,, (the number

on the two dice are equal)?

2-31 Referring to Exercise 2.30 suppose that the two

Large Car

25

New driver

No accidents

Car

12 dots on rhe rwo

dice?

ir'.,;i
l.iil5.
i.t:r,}.].'i

ii:,
:tll

la..'l'

'i:r:.

'.:t+: :'

+,

do you ,no*t

ro[ing two dice (one green and one red)

'a.]t
air,:

til-a

si':r

(a) How many distinct outcomes are there for

this experiment?

(b) How many possibilities are there for the totar

number of dots on the
upward faces' of the two dice at the conclusion qf the
experiment?

.3,.
'.i,r,